MONTH-TO-GO PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS...TEAMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO BE PLAYOFF BOUND

[birdsflyhigh]

With only a month left in the regular season, I wanted to check out which teams could possibly be playoff bound. Even though a few posters aren't crazy about the GPI, I used it as a gauge to get a group of teams that have a shot to be playing in postseason. Then I went to the mega-poll site which lists all 122 I-AA teams and gives their complete schedules.

I got a list of 25 playoff calibur teams and looked up the rest of each team's remaining games, then I projected out each team's final regular season record (much is debatable). After predicting each team's record, I went back and looked at how many QUALITY wins each team has earned. Considered a win against any team listed in the GPI top 40 to be a quality win. The top 40 GPI would be the upper third of I-AA football, so that's pretty reasonable.

Going to do this again in a couple of weeks to see how things have changed, and I'm SURE they will change, so it'll be interesting.

Listed below are teams that CURRENTLY have chances to be playoff bound. First it's the team, then their projected record, followed by the predicted number of quality wins (QW) against the current GPI top 40. Also listed each quality win with the corresponding current GPI rank.

Sooooooo....here goes:


top 4 playoff seeds

U Mass (9-2) 5 QW: UNH(9), Maine(11), Northeastern(22),
Townson(23), Villanova(40) also 1pt loss to I-A
Navy


Montana (10-1) 5: Portland St(10), Cal-Poly(13), MSU(20),
SDSU(24), NAU (29)

Appy St. (10-1) 4: JMU(6), Furman(17), Wofford(33), GSU(37)

Illinois St. (9-2) 5: YSU(8), SIU(19), WKU(26), UCA(27), EIU(28)
also 1 pt loss to I-A Kansas St.

4 other autos

UT-Martin(10-1) 1: EIU(28)

Hampton (10-1) 0: best win...Grambling(57)

Holy Cross(9-2) 0: best win...Lehigh(41)

SamHouston(8-3) 0: best win...NW Lou(61)

decent chance auto bids

UNH (8-3) 4: Mass(1), Richmond(16), I-A Northwestern,
Delaware(30)

Richmond(9-2) 5: JMU(6), Northeastern(22), Townson(23),
Villanova(40), I-A Duke

JamesMad(9-2) 4: UNH(9), Northeastern(22), Townson(23),
Delaware(30)

UNI (8-3) 4: Illinois St(4), YSU(9), SDSU(24), WKU(26),
also 1 pt. loss to I-A Iowa St.

YSU (8-3) 4: Maine(11), UC-Davis(15), SIU(19), WKU(26)

Maine (8-3) 4: UNH(9), Northeastern(22), Townson(23),
Villanova(40)

bubble teams with the best shot

Furman (8-3) 2: Wofford(33), GSU(37)

SIU (8-3) 2: UNI(7), I-A Indiana

Coastal C(9-2) 2: Furman(17), Wofford(33)

other bubble teams...who knows?

Delaware (7-4) 3: Richmond(16), Townson(23), Villanova(40)

Portland St(7-4) 2: I-A New Mexico, EWU(38)

Cal-Poly (7-4) 1: UC-Davis(15)

Mont St (7-4) 3: Portland St(10), NAU(29), I-A Colorado

Del St. (9-2) 0: best win...SC St(49)

SanDiego(10-1) 1: Yale(24)

EIU (8-4) 0: best win...Jacksonville St(45)

Chuck S (10-1) 0: best win...Gard-Webb(43)




Sooooooo....hope I got all those numbers right...WHEH!!! Also like I said the above records are just how I see things falling. And the GPI will constantly be changing, so some teams will lose or gain quality wins depending on how things go.

Alright....KNOW this is a long post, but thougt I'd put it together. Want to do another one of these in a couple weeks to narrow down the field. COOL! :thumbsup:

[Coastal89]

Coastal C(9-2) 2: Furman(17), Wofford(33)

Make that 3 if we go 9-2: Charleston Southern(39)
Plus #43 GWU and #49 SCSU

[89Hen]

U Mass (9-2) 5 QW: UNH(9), Maine(11), Northeastern(22),
Townson(23), Villanova(40) also 1pt loss to I-A
Navy

UNH (8-3) 4: Mass(1), Richmond(16), I-A Northwestern,
Delaware(30)
You have them beating each other.

[FlyYtown]

I want WKU to keep winning so we have a chance to play ranked teams from here on out.... and if we go 2-1 in the final 3; we will likely get a playoff bid, without all the BS from last year!!!!

[birdsflyhigh]

Good catch 89Hen!! :o I meant to have UNH over UMass. So that would drop the number of UMass quality wins down to 4. However, I still have UMass at 9-2 and UNH at 8-3 (final loss being at Maine).

Sorry about the slip....it was alot of numbers and teams to work on. ;)

[kirkblitz]

furmans gonna beat app state so shouldt they get the auto bid?

[TypicalTribe]

Just to throw it out there:

SC State at ASU
Holy Cross at UMass
San Diego at Montana
Montana St. at Ill. St.

Hampton at JMU
UT-Martin at WKU
SHSU at UNI
UNH at Furman

Still a little early to make predictions, but it's always fun to make a stab.

[CSU BUCS]

Chuck S (10-1) 0: best win...Gard-Webb(43)




It doesn't even matter if we losse one game because we would be ineligible.

[sdgriz24]

Just to throw it out there:

SC State at ASU
Holy Cross at UMass
San Diego at Montana
Montana St. at Ill. St.

Hampton at JMU
UT-Martin at WKU
SHSU at UNI
UNH at Furman

Still a little early to make predictions, but it's always fun to make a stab.

Not smack,but I sure hope so

[JMUfan2008]

Just to throw it out there:

SC State at ASU
Holy Cross at UMass
San Diego at Montana
Montana St. at Ill. St.

Hampton at JMU
UT-Martin at WKU
SHSU at UNI
UNH at Furman

Still a little early to make predictions, but it's always fun to make a stab.

please?

[PantherRob82]

I'd take the winner of the SLC coming to the dome.

[Toppermaniac]

I want WKU to keep winning so we have a chance to play ranked teams from here on out.... and if we go 2-1 in the final 3; we will likely get a playoff bid, without all the BS from last year!!!!

I want us to keep on winning as well, including the November game when YSU visits Bowling Green. We win out and we get a bid. Tough road, but it can be done.

[PantherRob82]

I want us to keep on winning as well, including the November game when YSU visits Bowling Green. We win out and we get a bid. Tough road, but it can be done.

We did it last year, but I'd rather you didn't win in the Dome. :mad:

[slycat]

I'd take the winner of the SLC coming to the dome.

if txst won i'd love that. revenge in the playoffs.:p

[shakdaddy3]

I want us to keep on winning as well, including the November game when YSU visits Bowling Green. We win out and we get a bid. Tough road, but it can be done.

i'm WKU's new biggest fan Topper... you guys can do it, especially with haddix at the helm and a healthy leron moore (sp?).

[HPCAT]

The winner of the SLC will most likely be 7-4, and if they do not face a top 4 seed, could very well host a playoff game, especially if it is TXST.

[PurpleandGold]

you missed JMU's fifth quality win, we'd have to beat Villanova to go 9-2, IF we lose to Richmond.

[OL FU]

Just to throw it out there:

SC State at ASU
Holy Cross at UMass
San Diego at Montana
Montana St. at Ill. St.

Hampton at JMU
UT-Martin at WKU
SHSU at UNI
UNH at Furman

Still a little early to make predictions, but it's always fun to make a stab.

Could you give us a running team:eek:

[PantherRob82]

if txst won i'd love that. revenge in the playoffs.:p

I don't think there would be much revenge involved, but that's why we play the game, right?

[PantherRob82]

The winner of the SLC will most likely be 7-4, and if they do not face a top 4 seed, could very well host a playoff game, especially if it is TXST.

No way does a 7-4 autobid team host a game.

[HPCAT]

No way does a 7-4 autobid team host a game.

Never say never. :twocents:

[nmatsen]

No way does a 7-4 autobid team host a game.

Montana, 7-4 and a winner of the Big Sky would absolutely, without a doubt recieve a home game first round. No doubt about it. McNeese used to be in that boat but I don't know anymore.

[Chucktown]

EIU will win the OVC autobid

[PantherRob82]

Montana, 7-4 and a winner of the Big Sky would absolutely, without a doubt recieve a home game first round. No doubt about it. McNeese used to be in that boat but I don't know anymore.

Ok, Montana would.

[CCU97]

Am I the only one who thinks the auto bid stuff is for the birds? Lets see...we have the 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,and 11 conferences getting auto bids....#1 doesn't have anyone who is elligible I don't think...#6 is the Ivy and they don't participate...so those I get....But why wouldn't it make sense at the end of the season to use the GPI and give auto bids to the top 8 elligible conferences....that means that if your conference sucks you better just win baby....if your conference is tough you are rewarded...and then the other 8 teams are based on the GPI standing of those left...cut and dry...and fair each year to the best teams from the best conferences....just my :twocents:

[Poly Pigskin]

Am I the only one who thinks the auto bid stuff is for the birds? Lets see...we have the 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,and 11 conferences getting auto bids....#1 doesn't have anyone who is elligible I don't think...#6 is the Ivy and they don't participate...so those I get....But why wouldn't it make sense at the end of the season to use the GPI and give auto bids to the top 8 elligible conferences....that means that if your conference sucks you better just win baby....if your conference is tough you are rewarded...and then the other 8 teams are based on the GPI standing of those left...cut and dry...and fair each year to the best teams from the best conferences....just my :twocents:

Cal Poly is still alive from the #1 conference.

[CCU97]

Well yes you are my bad....but in three weeks if you are I will bow down...because you guys would have really earned your spot....

Sat, Oct 28 at San Diego State
Sat, Nov 4 at Montana
Sat, Nov 11 at North Dakota State

will have to win 2 of 3....good luck because someone from your conference deserves to be in the playoff!

[Proud Griz Man]

Just to throw it out there:

SC State at ASU
Holy Cross at UMass
San Diego at Montana
Montana St. at Ill. St.

Hampton at JMU
UT-Martin at WKU
SHSU at UNI
UNH at Furman

Still a little early to make predictions, but it's always fun to make a stab.

I hope not, and not because I fear San Diego or have no respect for them. Keep in mind that we beat New Hampshire in the 2004 playoffs and Coulson and dozens of other AGS pseudo-experts gave our coach flack for "running up the score." I don't want a similar situation in 2006, where we're poor sports if we score. :(

[pantherclaw]

Just to throw it out there:

SC State at ASU
Holy Cross at UMass
San Diego at Montana
Montana St. at Ill. St.

Hampton at JMU
UT-Martin at WKU
SHSU at UNI
UNH at Furman

Still a little early to make predictions, but it's always fun to make a stab.

I agree except throw out San Diego, IMO no way they get in playoffs, put in SIU or YSU, whoever wins their head-to-head. JMHO

[mainejeff]

I won't even duiscuss playoff possiblities for Maine until they make it past URI and Northeastern over the next 2 weeks. If they end up 7-2 after those games then it's pretty simple (yet difficult)......beat UMass on the road or UNH at home and they are in.

[McNeese75]

The winner of the SLC will most likely be 7-4, and if they do not face a top 4 seed, could very well host a playoff game, especially if it is TXST.

:confused: And why Tx State more so than anyone else? Surely you do not think you bring more to the table than most of the the other SLC teams? (if you do, you need to look again xidiotx )

This is a moot point anyway because as previously stated. The SLC autobid will not host a first round game

[PantherRob82]

I'd rather go to McNeese than Tx St, JMO.

[R.A.]

Just to throw it out there:

SC State at ASU
Holy Cross at UMass
San Diego at Montana
Montana St. at Ill. St.

Hampton at JMU
UT-Martin at WKU
SHSU at UNI
UNH at Furman

Still a little early to make predictions, but it's always fun to make a stab.

I think you're probably right with your MEAC selections, but I feel that if SCSU can win the MEAC Conference title, they will probably be headed right up the road to Furman, because by the end of the season, a conference champion and automatic bid qualifier, wouldn't be the last place team in the 16 team field, and thus, wouldn't be playing the top team in the 16 team field, would they? I'm not sure. You may be correct T.Tribe.

And there has been much discussion about Hampton. Most agree that a 10-1 Hampton Pirates team, gets an at large bid to the playoffs. But, are the Pirates going to be 10-1 at the end of the season? The Pirates haven't played Bethune Cookman yet. Bethune Cookman crush the possibly MEAC Champion SCSU, 44-14. Hampton lost to SCSU 13-6. Do you all think that the Hampton Pirates can get past Bethune Cookam?? I have my doubts... especially now that Bethune Cookman scored 70 points on poor NC A&T.

[PantherRob82]

I hope the MEAC doesn't get more than an autobid. Too many good teams in the power confrences. :nonono2: