Patriot League Autobid Watch

[LeopardFan04]

Here's how things look with 4 weeks to go...

TEAM PL Pct. OVERALL Pct. Remaining PL Games
Holy Cross 3-0 1.000 6-2 .750 vs. Leh, vs. Buck, @ Gate
Colgate 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. HC, @ Buck
Lehigh 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 @ HC, vs. Gate, vs. Ford, @ Laf
Lafayette 1-1 .500 2-5 .286 @ Gate, @ Ford, vs. Gtown, vs. Leh
Bucknell 1-2 .333 4-4 .500 vs. Ford, @ HC, vs. Gate
Fordham 0-2 .000 2-5 .286 @ Buck, vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. Gtown
Georgetown 0-4 .000 1-6 .143 @ Laf, @ Ford


It seems to be a foregone conclusion that the PL will only have one bid (and probably deservedly so), but an 8-3 Holy Cross with a loss to say Colgate on the road might get at least a look...

[Husky Alum]

Here's how things look with 4 weeks to go...

TEAM PL Pct. OVERALL Pct. Remaining PL Games
Holy Cross 3-0 1.000 6-2 .750 vs. Leh, vs. Buck, @ Gate
Colgate 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. HC, @ Buck
Lehigh 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 @ HC, vs. Gate, vs. Ford, @ Laf
Lafayette 1-1 .500 2-5 .286 @ Gate, @ Ford, vs. Gtown, vs. Leh
Bucknell 1-2 .333 4-4 .500 vs. Ford, @ HC, vs. Gate
Fordham 0-2 .000 2-5 .286 @ Buck, vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. Gtown
Georgetown 0-4 .000 1-6 .143 @ Laf, @ Ford


It seems to be a foregone conclusion that the PL will only have one bid (and probably deservedly so), but an 8-3 Holy Cross with a loss to say Colgate on the road might get at least a look...

I can't see an 8-3 Holy Cross team with a loss to NU at home and Colgate on the road getting more than a token look. I wasn't all that impressed with the Crusaders (yes, HC fans, I know Rudolph didn't play against us).

[bluehenbillk]

It's hard to remember the Patsy being more of a lock for a one-bid league than they are this year. Arguably the worst of the 8 autobids.

[LeopardFan04]

It's hard to remember the Patsy being more of a lock for a one-bid league than they are this year. Arguably the worst of the 8 autobids.

Good point...although we may have some serious competition from the SLC...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

It would be a tough call for HC at 8-3. Tough losses would be Northeastern, Harvard and Colgate. Their "quality wins" would be Brown, Dartmouth, Lehigh and Lafayette... IMO, not an easy sell, especially since Dartmouth, Lehigh and Lafayette would have at least 5 losses, with Brown not being too far behind.

HC's best bet as an at-large is to hope all the other at-large folks implode with 4 losses. But it would be hard to put HC in and keep 7-4 UNH out, for example.

[justballn21]

i have to tend to agree on this post with all the afformentioned points. As much as I love Holy Cross, the league has just not done good enough to warrant an at-large bid. I think that the only way any of us get in this year is an auto-bid. The patriot was down this year, but I think to say that holy cross would be the "best of a mediocre bunch" as NU alum said in an earlier post. I think the patriot has shown it can hold its own with the past in the past and one bad year should not change that outlook.

[HensRock]

Here's how things look with 4 weeks to go...

TEAM PL Pct. OVERALL Pct. Remaining PL Games
Holy Cross 3-0 1.000 6-2 .750 vs. Leh, vs. Buck, @ Gate
Colgate 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. HC, @ Buck
Lehigh 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 @ HC, vs. Gate, vs. Ford, @ Laf
Lafayette 1-1 .500 2-5 .286 @ Gate, @ Ford, vs. Gtown, vs. Leh
Bucknell 1-2 .333 4-4 .500 vs. Ford, @ HC, vs. Gate
Fordham 0-2 .000 2-5 .286 @ Buck, vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. Gtown
Georgetown 0-4 .000 1-6 .143 @ Laf, @ Ford



I'd say it looks more like this...

TEAM PL Pct. OVERALL Pct. Remaining PL Games
Holy Cross 3-0 1.000 6-2 .750 vs. Leh, vs. Buck, @ Gate
Colgate 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. HC, @ Buck
Lehigh 2-0 1.000 3-4 .429 @ HC, vs. Gate, vs. Ford, @ Laf
Lafayette 1-1 .500 2-5 .286 @ Gate, @ Ford, vs. Gtown, vs. Leh
Bucknell 1-2 .333 4-4 .500 vs. Ford, @ HC, vs. Gate

[LeopardFan04]

Good way to put it...It wasn't my original intention to include every team, but I did so to show the remaining schedules...although I guess that can figured out anyway...and the way the pards have been playing you need to put us in a smaller font...

[LEHIGH61]

BYE BYE this weekend. And if Colgate beats Lafayette on Saturday, Lehigh versus Colgate will decide the PL.

[Pard4Life]

The only way Lafayette can win this thing is if we win the rest of our games... a joke considering how we have played this season. Holy Cross is going to have a tough time vs. Colgate and Lehigh but if they only lose one of those games, they will likely get the autobid and get trashed by UMass...

No way is Holy Cross an at-large... no way...

[hvsader]

No way a few weeks ago you'd be having this discussion, no way

[Pard4Life]

No way a few weeks ago you'd be having this discussion, no way

Um, yeah.. so? That still does not answer the at-large question... and no way is HC an at-large. Lafayette only recieved one last year at 8-3 because we beat Richmond 7-0.

Holy Cross has beaten Marist-bad, G'town-bad, Fordham-bad, Brown-meh, Dartmouth (barely)-bad, Lafayette-bad... lost to Harvard and N'eastern...

where is the quality win?

[Fordham]

No way a few weeks ago you'd be having this discussion, no way I think Ken_Z predicted something like this would be happening.

[hvsader]

I'm in line with Gilmore's thinking, each week is a new season. Maybe a cliche but seems to be the way they are playing. They are getting better each week. If post-season results, obviously would be great. But who woulda thunk?

[bison137]

The only way Lafayette can win this thing is if we win the rest of our games... a joke considering how we have played this season. Holy Cross is going to have a tough time vs. Colgate and Lehigh but if they only lose one of those games, they will likely get the autobid and get trashed by UMass...

No way is Holy Cross an at-large... no way...


If HC lost to Colgate and LC ran the table, LC would have a realistic shot to get the autobid.

I agree that HC will not get an at-large.

[TheValleyRaider]

If HC only lost to Colgate, and LC ran the table, HC would still get the auto because they have the tiebreaker over the Leopards. No one from the PL gets an at-large.

I don't know how much improved HC is from last year (the loss to Northeastern still sticks with me), but they'd have to be significantly better, especially defensively, if they're going to beat Colgate in Hamilton. They've shown nothing the past 3 seasons to indicate they can stop the run, and were outplayed last year at home. If they are that much better, it should be a good one in 3 weeks.

Lafayette is certainly not dead yet. HC losing to Lehigh and Colgate is distinctly possible, while Lafayette winning out is also not entirely unlikely (even if a Leopard win in Hamilton is ;)). The loss certainly hurt, and they have little margin for error, but if Lafayette wins out, it wouldn't surprise me to see them playing after Thanksgiving.

Lehigh and Colgate both have 3 big games remaining (Laf, HC, and each other), so they've got the most room for improvement and the largest margin for error. I also won't discount the chances of Bucknell beating Colgate, as those games tend to be close (that's for you, Ken_Z).

Colgate-Lafayette and Holy Cross-Lehigh are going to be HUGE games this weekend.

[Pard4Life]

I think Ken_Z predicted something like this would be happening.

..except only to Bucknell xlolx

[Pard4Life]

If HC only lost to Colgate, and LC ran the table, HC would still get the auto because they have the tiebreaker over the Leopards. No one from the PL gets an at-large.

I don't know how much improved HC is from last year (the loss to Northeastern still sticks with me), but they'd have to be significantly better, especially defensively, if they're going to beat Colgate in Hamilton. They've shown nothing the past 3 seasons to indicate they can stop the run, and were outplayed last year at home. If they are that much better, it should be a good one in 3 weeks.

Lafayette is certainly not dead yet. HC losing to Lehigh and Colgate is distinctly possible, while Lafayette winning out is also not entirely unlikely (even if a Leopard win in Hamilton is ;)). The loss certainly hurt, and they have little margin for error, but if Lafayette wins out, it wouldn't surprise me to see them playing after Thanksgiving.

Lehigh and Colgate both have 3 big games remaining (Laf, HC, and each other), so they've got the most room for improvement and the largest margin for error. I also won't discount the chances of Bucknell beating Colgate, as those games tend to be close (that's for you, Ken_Z).

Colgate-Lafayette and Holy Cross-Lehigh are going to be HUGE games this weekend.

Yeah... huge as in determining who would be at one loss in league play and soiling their one or two loss record, hindering at-large hopes... this was not supposed to be for survival..

No way we run the table... only wins I see for sure are over Fordham and G'town the rest of the way... Colgate, no... Lehigh still up in the air depending upon how we play... Threatt could torch us.

[LeopardFan04]

Yeah... huge as in determining who would be at one loss in league play and soiling their one or two loss record, hindering at-large hopes... this was not supposed to be for survival..

No way we run the table... only wins I see for sure are over Fordham and G'town the rest of the way... Colgate, no... Lehigh still up in the air depending upon how we play... Threatt could torch us.

I don't even have faith we'll beat Gtown...they always play us tough...we could be looking at 3-8 :( or we could be looking at 6-5 and an improbable playoff berth :hurray: can't tell anything anymore with this team...:bang:

[Go...gate]

BYE BYE this weekend. And if Colgate beats Lafayette on Saturday, Lehigh versus Colgate will decide the PL.

I don't think so this year. Cross is finding a way to win, which no one else in the league has been able to do consistently. It is good to see their program stepping up again. This can only help the conference.

[Pards Rule]

NO Patriot should be at large this year!! NONE!!

[bison137]

If HC only lost to Colgate, and LC ran the table, HC would still get the auto because they have the tiebreaker over the Leopards. No one from the PL gets an at-large.




That is not necessarily correct. If LC wins out and HC loses to Colgate, there could be a 3-way tie, and then none of the tie-breakers resolves it.

In this case, it comes down to a vote of the AD's from Bucknell, Lehigh, Fordham, and Georgetown, with the decision based on:

1. strength of schedule;
2. overall record; and
3. computer rankings

In this scenario, Lafayette would have the best strength of schedule and would have a reasonable chance to have the best computer rankings (remember, this assumes HC loses to Colgate and LC beats Colgate and Lehigh). Thus LC would have a reasonable chance to go to the playoffs.

Note that the same scenario could play out with Lehigh, HC, and LC (or LU, CU, and HC).

[Pard4Life]

That is not necessarily correct. If LC wins out and HC loses to Colgate, there could be a 3-way tie, and then none of the tie-breakers resolves it.

In this case, it comes down to a vote of the AD's from Bucknell, Lehigh, Fordham, and Georgetown, with the decision based on:

1. strength of schedule;
2. overall record; and
3. computer rankings

In this scenario, Lafayette would have the best strength of schedule and would have a reasonable chance to have the best computer rankings (remember, this assumes HC loses to Colgate and LC beats Colgate and Lehigh). Thus LC would have a reasonable chance to go to the playoffs.

Note that the same scenario could play out with Lehigh, HC, and LC (or LU, CU, and HC).

"Playoffs? You want to talk about playoffs? Playoffs! I just hope we can win another game!" :)

[Pard4Life]

You know what, I hope we don't make the playoffs at 6-5... what would that teach our team? Play at 60 percent, play stupid, and you will still be rewarded with a league title and a playoff appearance?

That is not what this program needs... if we do that, we might as well be 2-10 next year with a lazy attitude of just showing up = winning.

[bison137]

"Playoffs? You want to talk about playoffs? Playoffs! I just hope we can win another game!" :)

I didn't say that it would happen, just that it could. . :)

However, even if it's not Lafayette involved, there is definitely a chance for a 3-way tie which would require the vote of the other four AD's. Even after HC' win Saturday, I still don't expect anyone to go undefeated, which would make a tie very likely. My guess is that it will only involve two teams. But if three are involved, then there is no tiebreaker that can work (other than the AD's vote).

[Fordham]

"Playoffs? You want to talk about playoffs? Playoffs! I just hope we can win another game!" :)http://www.cnnsi.com/video/sports/2001/11/25/mora_7116.jpg

Good stuff, Pard4


In this case, it comes down to a vote of the AD's from Bucknell, Lehigh, Fordham, and Georgetown, with the decision based on:
Fellas, I hate to disclose the extent of my sway and influence but I may or may not have been granted to rights to the Fordham vote, should this unfortunate circle of events take place. If and when this does take place I will be using my own set of criteria by which to establish the best candidate. Perhaps most important, that criteria shall not be revealed except to say ...

sucking up shall commence in 3 ... 2 ... 1...





GO!

[ngineer]

That is not necessarily correct. If LC wins out and HC loses to Colgate, there could be a 3-way tie, and then none of the tie-breakers resolves it.

In this case, it comes down to a vote of the AD's from Bucknell, Lehigh, Fordham, and Georgetown, with the decision based on:

1. strength of schedule;
2. overall record; and
3. computer rankings

In this scenario, Lafayette would have the best strength of schedule and would have a reasonable chance to have the best computer rankings (remember, this assumes HC loses to Colgate and LC beats Colgate and Lehigh). Thus LC would have a reasonable chance to go to the playoffs.

Note that the same scenario could play out with Lehigh, HC, and LC (or LU, CU, and HC).

Not sure what your basis is on that. Lehigh's OOC's are Albany, Harvard, Princeton, Yale and Villanova. While LC had Sacred Heart, Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and Penn (who lost to Villanova). Lehigh's losses to common opponents were much closer (though I dislike the the 'good loss' tag). Not that it matters. There will be no at-large for anyone this year.

[DFW HOYA]

Georgetown shut out a Stony Brook team that may win the NEC outright by the count of 7-0. (The SBU fans still have to be shaking their heads on that one.)

Perhaps the same fate can await Lafayette or Fordham, as long as the total points allowed are under 13.

[ngineer]

Georgetown shut out a Stony Brook team that may win the NEC outright by the count of 7-0. (The SBU fans still have to be shaking their heads on that one.)

Perhaps the same fate can await Lafayette or Fordham.

AND Chuck South!! Go Get 'EM!:thumbsup:

[cosmo here]

Not sure what your basis is on that. Lehigh's OOC's are Albany, Harvard, Princeton, Yale and Villanova. While LC had Sacred Heart, Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and Penn (who lost to Villanova). Lehigh's losses to common opponents were much closer (though I dislike the the 'good loss' tag). Not that it matters. There will be no at-large for anyone this year.

well at this point Lafayette has played the second-toughest schedule in the country in winning percentage of its opponents so as of today, it's Lafayette.

[TheValleyRaider]

That is not necessarily correct. If LC wins out and HC loses to Colgate, there could be a 3-way tie, and then none of the tie-breakers resolves it.

That is true. Although, if Lafayette beats us, I don't particularly like our chances of beating Lehigh the next week :twocents:

[Pard4Life]

That is true. Although, if Lafayette beats us, I don't particularly like our chances of beating Lehigh the next week :twocents:

If we beat Colgate, the Raiders are in a worst position than us. Should be a close game.. not a good one... both Maurer and Saraceno should duel nicely.. the one who makes the least mistakes wins.

Thinking about trekking to Colgate Saturday... what's the weather like? Should I bring my sheepskin?

[bison137]

Not sure what your basis is on that. Lehigh's OOC's are Albany, Harvard, Princeton, Yale and Villanova. While LC had Sacred Heart, Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and Penn (who lost to Villanova). Lehigh's losses to common opponents were much closer (though I dislike the the 'good loss' tag). Not that it matters. There will be no at-large for anyone this year.

The basis is easy. The hypothetical I posed had LC, CU, and HC in a 3-way tie. Compare the ooc opponents for those three.

[ChickenMan]

This is just a down year for the Patriot League and it may be the weakest that the Pat has been since they got their auto bid. The Pats playoff rep this year won't be the team that wins the most... it will be the team that loses the least.

[Pard4Life]

This is just a down year for the Patriot League and it may be the weakest that the Pat has been since they got their auto bid. The Pats playoff rep this year won't be the team that wins the most... it will be the team that loses the least.

:nod:

HC will get shreaded by UMass if they meet, same with Lafayette.

[TheValleyRaider]

Thinking about trekking to Colgate Saturday... what's the weather like? Should I bring my sheepskin?

Late October in CNY? I can't believe you asked :D

The last forecast I saw was for upper 40s with rain, so a little wetter than usual, actually.

[letsgopards04]

I'm suprised its not supposed to snow

[ngineer]

well at this point Lafayette has played the second-toughest schedule in the country in winning percentage of its opponents so as of today, it's Lafayette.

Ok-on that basis, but the winning percentage of opponents doesn't really measure the strength of the opposition because it's all dependent on the strength of their opposition. But I acknowledge the point.

[justballn21]

This is just a down year for the Patriot League and it may be the weakest that the Pat has been since they got their auto bid. The Pats playoff rep this year won't be the team that wins the most... it will be the team that loses the least.


although i agree that umass is a huge challenge, the saders have a bye week the alst week of the season so if they were to play umass or any playoff game for that matter they would have an extra week of rest plus an extra week to gameplan against their opponents. Not saying that it really makes a difference, but every little bit helps right? and we've been counted out many times before this year, so holy cross embraces the challeneg if that happens to be so. It will be a good preview of our game with Umass next year: opening game of the season.:smiley_wi :smiley_wi :smiley_wi

[justballn21]

i retract my last statement. Umass has about 9 starting d-1 A transfers.....

[ngineer]

although i agree that umass is a huge challenge, the saders have a bye week the alst week of the season so if they were to play umass or any playoff game for that matter they would have an extra week of rest plus an extra week to gameplan against their opponents. Not saying that it really makes a difference, but every little bit helps right? and we've been counted out many times before this year, so holy cross embraces the challeneg if that happens to be so. It will be a good preview of our game with Umass next year: opening game of the season.:smiley_wi :smiley_wi :smiley_wi

Yes and no. Yes, the extra week is a great benefit to heal up, but no one finds out who they play in the playoffs until November 19, so there's no real advantage in getting extra prep against a known opponent. The extra healing and rest, though, could be a big boost at that time of year.
However, after this week, you won't have to lay awake at night and worry about this stuff.;)

[JRGNYR]

although i agree that umass is a huge challenge, the saders have a bye week the alst week of the season so if they were to play umass or any playoff game for that matter they would have an extra week of rest plus an extra week to gameplan against their opponents. Not saying that it really makes a difference, but every little bit helps right? and we've been counted out many times before this year, so holy cross embraces the challeneg if that happens to be so. It will be a good preview of our game with Umass next year: opening game of the season.:smiley_wi :smiley_wi :smiley_wi

If HC were to make the playoffs, I'm not sure I'd like the bye week. In order to win the Patriot League and get the autobid, HC will have to continue the roll they're on, and I'd rather see them just keep playing and keep the momentum going.

Maybe the effect of momentum is overplayed in sports, I don't know. But I look at the Tigers and how they're playing after a week long layoff between the ALCS and the WS. :twocents:

[ngineer]

If HC were to make the playoffs, I'm not sure I'd like the bye week. In order to win the Patriot League and get the autobid, HC will have to continue the roll they're on, and I'd rather see them just keep playing and keep the momentum going.

Maybe the effect of momentum is overplayed in sports, I don't know. But I look at the Tigers and how they're playing after a week long layoff between the ALCS and the WS. :twocents:

I would agree with the one big exception--INJURIES. If you've got 'em the week off can do wonders. If everyone is healthy, then I agree it's better to keep the mojo...

[Pard4Life]

I would agree with the one big exception--INJURIES. If you've got 'em the week off can do wonders. If everyone is healthy, then I agree it's better to keep the mojo...

A week off would favor UMass.. they are stronger, have more talent, and could execute/plan more effectively.

HC would have to catch them off gaurd and a no-bye helps that..

[colorless raider]

If we beat Colgate, the Raiders are in a worst position than us. Should be a close game.. not a good one... both Maurer and Saraceno should duel nicely.. the one who makes the least mistakes wins.

Thinking about trekking to Colgate Saturday... what's the weather like? Should I bring my sheepskin?
Are you kidding me?? Bring all the foul weather gear you can find!! expect a sloppy field as well. Gate too cheap for Field Turf.

[ngineer]

Interesting vision of Hurt v. Scott slogging through the muck. I love those kind of games. I used to remember all the games in the NFL years ago that were in stadiums that shared baseball diamonds, and when it rained the mud was great. Couldn't even read the uniform numbers by the second half.:nod: