MEAC and I-AA Playoffs

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Hampton, Delaware State, and SC State have 1 conference loss.

Hampton 5-1 7-1
Delaware State 4-1 5-2
South Carolina State 3-1 4-3

Delaware faces SC State later this year. Let's say Hampton wins out.

If SC wins out (beats Delaware State):

South Carolina State* 7-1 8-3
Hampton 7-1 9-2
Delaware State 6-2 8-3

If Delaware State (bets SC State) wins out:

Hampton* 7-1 9-2
Delaware State 7-1 9-2
South Carolina State 6-2 7-4

Note what's interesting here. No matter what happens in that Del State/SC State game, as long as all three teams keep winning, it's extremely likely that the MEAC will place two teams - either with Hampton or Delaware State as an at-large.

If you look at these remaining schedules, it seems extremely likely that will this happen, too.

Upshot? Expect to see 2 MEAC teams at playoff selection time, with the Del State/SC State game ending up as a playoff game.

[Saint3333]

There is only one autobid, the team that loses the coin flip stays home. I don't think it really matters, whoever wins will be one and done in the playoffs.

[AppGuy04]

No way the MEAC gets more than one IMO

[UMass922]

Wasn't a 9-2 SC State team left out of the playoffs just a year or two ago? Seems to me the MEAC is a one-bid league.

Anyway, I think I'm rooting for Delaware State to grab the title. It would be crazy fun to see DSU in the playoffs in a year that UD almost certainly will not be. (Nothing personal against the Hens here--it would just be symbolic of this wild year in I-AA.)

[blukeys]

No way the MEAC gets more than one IMO


We did that in 2003. It was double one and done.

[UMass922]

We did that in 2003. It was double one and done.

In 1999, IIRC, the MEAC got two teams in, with A&T upsetting top-seeded TN St. in the first round, and FAMU advancing all the way to the semis. So we know at least that the MEAC is capable. I wonder what's changed since then?

[blukeys]

In 1999, IIRC, the MEAC got two teams in, with A&T upsetting top-seeded TN St. in the first round, and FAMU advancing all the way to the semis. So we know at least that the MEAC is capable. I wonder what's changed since then?

The other conferences got better. The talent level in the A-10 has improved significantly in the last 10 years. I haven't seen an equivalent jump in the MEAC especially on the OL and DL positions.

I see SC State winning it all and getting the auto bid.

[arranger101]

Yeah, it's funny how the MEAC title will be determined in a matter of back-to-back weekends. We go up to Del.State this weekend after beating a tough Hampton team. Their wishbone hasn't been too effective against us in the past and they will see our "new" defense first hand...should be a good one!:rotateh:

It will be very hostile up there being that it is their homecoming and the temps around 42 degrees at kick-off!xcoffeex

http://www.timesanddemocrat.com/content/articles/2006/10/22/sports/doc453ae5608e310343893419.jpg

[AppGuy04]

Your opinion?

If SCSU and Hampton both win out, SCSU would win the autobid. Woulda 10-1 Hampton team get left out? I think they would

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Your opinion?

If SCSU and Hampton both win out, SCSU would win the autobid. Woulda 10-1 Hampton team get left out? I think they would

A nationally-ranked 10-1 team not getting an autobid with their only loss to the MEAC champ? Are you serious?

I even think Delaware State at 9-2 should get consideration.

[gophoenix]

And in 1999 Florida A&M was using illegible players in their march to the Semis.

[RabidRabbit]

There are two conferences - SLC, Patriot that will send only the auto bid, and the rest don't have 7 DI wins. If Poly loses 2 of their 3 toughies left, they don't make it, and only SUU is eligible, and they're past ability to get 7 DI wins this season. Is over 1/2 the playoff field going to come out of the Gateway/A-10? Should a 7-4 UNH be chosen over a 10-1 Hampton? Coastal's a possibility, but outside chance.

This is a possibility. So is two from the OVC. SoCon, appears only App St. and Furman left. Big Sky, MT, and ?? There's possible room here.

[Dallas Demon]

The MEAC will likely get two, particularly if the autobid goes to the winner of Delaware St. and South Carolina St. Hampton at 10-1 will be in.

[blukeys]

A nationally-ranked 10-1 team not getting an autobid with their only loss to the MEAC champ? Are you serious?

I even think Delaware State at 9-2 should get consideration.


LFN when did you last see a MEAC game in person???????????

If you come to see DelState you are welcome to stay at my place but really Hampton's last 2 opening round losses should have taught you something. Giving the MEAC 2 playoff slots means 2 one and dones. Care to wager on that???????

[PantherRob82]

this is crazy talk. winner gets an autobid. you give USD a bid before a 2nd meac team.

[blukeys]

this is crazy talk. winner gets an autobid. you give USD a bid before a 2nd meac team.


IMHO the 2nd MEAC team gets a bid before USD. But trust me that will not be the only choice. There will be a ton of worthy 8-3 or 7-4 teams out there. :nod: :nod: :nod:

[blur2005]

this is crazy talk. winner gets an autobid. you give USD a bid before a 2nd meac team.
Uh, no. The MEAC may have a poor track record but at least they've done something in the playoffs before. Moreover, we mock MEAC schedules but they are certainly stronger than Pioneer League schedules. I think there's a good possibility that this will allow two MEAC teams to get in to the playoffs. A 10-1 Hampton team could rob some 8-3 squad of a spot.

[Mr. C]

Several comments on the MEAC. First, Hampton nearly beat William & Mary (an eventual semifinalist) in the first round in 2004. The Pirate defense had a bunch of interceptions of Payton Award winner Lang Campbell and Jerome Mathis ran wild. If Hampton finishes 10-1, they have a strong chance of an at-large bid, due to the fact that they will still be ranked highly in the national and regional polls and the fact that they have some reputation with the selection committee. There also will likely be a derth of 8-3 teams from power conferences, so that should help the MEAC get a second bid. I've seen all three of these MEAC teams play and was a bit surprised that South Carolina State beat Hampton, but Orangeburg, S.C. is a tough place to win. Even playing on the road, I think the Bulldogs will beat Delaware State next Saturday. While I think it is likely that SCSU and Hampton get in, Delaware State probably can only get in as an auto bid team. While improved this year, the Hornets still are not a playoff-caliber team. I had a chance to see Northwestern State beat them and they would be very overmatched in the playoffs by a good I-AA defensive team.

[*****]

LFN when did you last see a MEAC game in person??????????? ...Not to butt in but... it was less than a month ago and I was with him:

http://i-aa.org/stats/2006/roadralph/HUvsMSU.jpg

article (http://www.i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=81075)
photo gallery (http://www.i-aa.org/stats/2006/roadralph/HUvsMSU/index.htm)

BTW, I started this thread a while back but do you see any holding in this pic:

http://www.i-aa.org/stats/2006/roadralph/HUvsMSU/images/DSC_0093.jpg

[gophoenix]

I personally say the MEAC should get two bids before San Diego gets in.

If San Diego makes it in, the moral of the story to the rest of us should be that a weak schedule gets rewarded. My thoughts are that Elon, The Citadel, most of the OVC, most of the MEAC and so on could go undefeated with their schedule.

At least MEAC teams play scholarship opponets most of whom have higher ratings than most of the Pioneer schools. I seriously still don't understand why San Diego has such a RPI computer poll rating.

[LeopardFan04]

I think it all depends (I know good cop out answer, right?)...really it'll come down to a team by team choice, there's really no way of saying right now whether a x-x MEAC team gets in over an undefeated San Diego (scheduling conflicts not withstanding) it'll really come down to strength of schedule I think, which gives let's say a 10-1 Hampton team an edge...given how this saturday went, we'll probably be having completely different conversations this time next week...one question, though...how much is past conference performance a factor in team selections on a year by year basis?

[UAalum72]

As far as I could tell, non-conference the MEAC is 0-3 vs. I-A, 4-0 vs. D-II, 3-2 vs. transitional (and future conference-mate) Winston-Salem, and 5-6 vs. I-AA. Their wins are against Savannah St., St. Francis, VMI, Grambling, and Tennessee St. - I-AA teams but not exactly Murderers' Row.

[OL FU]

Your opinion?

If SCSU and Hampton both win out, SCSU would win the autobid. Woulda 10-1 Hampton team get left out? I think they would

I don't. 10-1 from an auto bid conference getting left out.

One of you history buffs tell me if that has every happened

[89Hen]

Woulda 10-1 Hampton team get left out?
No.

[walliver]

The SoCon will only have two teams in the playoffs instead of the usual three. That opens up a spot for either the MEAC runner-up or Coastal. In 2003, the SoCon only had one team in the play-offs and the MEAC get an at-large bid as well as FAU (so my reasoning has some validity IMHO). If Coastal, SC State, and Hampton all run the table, the Selection committee was have a difficult decision to make. Coastal has a representative on the committee (of course we know that that has absolutely no impact on the decision making process). My guess is the committee would chose Coastal over the MEAC runner-up because 1) Coastal came close last year and 2) this is the final year for the players that started the program.

[LU van]

It always comes down to a numbers game, with the key number being “8” at large bids available.

There are 4 or 5 good A-10 teams fighting for at large bids, I think 3 get in, leaving 5 bids.

SoCon gets 1 at large bid, leaving 4.

There are 3 or 4 good Gateway teams fighting for at large bids, I think 2 get in, leaving 3 bids.

A lot of teams can make a case for the remaining 3 bids. Here are some plausible scenarios.

1. Portland State wins out, 8-3 with a win over Oregon, their in.
2. Montana State wins out, they get the auto bid and Montana gets an at large.
3. TN State wins out, they get the auto bid and TN Martin ends up 10-1 or 9-2 and gets at large consideration.
4. TN Martin loses only to E Illinois and ends up 9-2 and gets at large consideration.
5. Cal Poly wins 3 of remaining 4 and at 8-3 gets at large consideration.
6. Del State or S Carolina State win out and get auto bid, Hampton gets at large consideration at 10-1 or 9-2.
7. Stoney Brook wins out to take the NEC, Monmouth wins out and at 10-1 gets at large consideration.
8. Coastal Carolina wins out and at 9-2 and with a couple of quality wins gets at large consideration.
9. Chuck South wins out, goes 11-0 and gets at large consideration.
10. And yes, San Diego wins out, goes 11-0 and gets at large consideration.

Don’t know how many of these will play out, but every year it comes down to some tough decisions at the end and somebody will feel like they were screwed.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

To clarify: Del St and SC St play this weekend.

If Del St and Hampton win out, Hampton gets the autobid (both have one conf loss, Hampton wins head-to-head)

If SC St and Hampton win out, SC St gets the autobid (both have one conf loss, SC St wins head-to-head)

Only way Delaware St wins the autobid is if they win out and Hampton loses again.

I think everyone agrees that Hampton is in as an at-large at 10-1, but I'm a bit surprised that 9-2 Delaware State would get no love. Sure, they don't have a great playoff history, but I don't think they really have a bad loss in that case (to nationally-ranked Hampton and on the road at Northwestern St.) and they would at least have a decent win against SC St. Personally I give them credit for scheduling NW St even though their other OOC games (St. Francis and D-II Concord) aren't that strong.

:twocents:

[LU van]

You can give em love, but there's still only 8 at large spots!

[HIU 93]

I personally think DSU will beat SCSU this weekend and we will win out, giving us the auto bid. I think a 9-2 DSU would get consideration, but if Charleston Southern goes 11-0, I think the 11-0 would get the at-large versus the 9-2.

[UMass922]

It always comes down to a numbers game, with the key number being “8” at large bids available.

There are 4 or 5 good A-10 teams fighting for at large bids, I think 3 get in, leaving 5 bids.

SoCon gets 1 at large bid, leaving 4.

There are 3 or 4 good Gateway teams fighting for at large bids, I think 2 get in, leaving 3 bids.

A lot of teams can make a case for the remaining 3 bids. Here are some plausible scenarios.

1. Portland State wins out, 8-3 with a win over Oregon, their in.
2. Montana State wins out, they get the auto bid and Montana gets an at large.
3. TN State wins out, they get the auto bid and TN Martin ends up 10-1 or 9-2 and gets at large consideration.
4. TN Martin loses only to E Illinois and ends up 9-2 and gets at large consideration.
5. Cal Poly wins 3 of remaining 4 and at 8-3 gets at large consideration.
6. Del State or S Carolina State win out and get auto bid, Hampton gets at large consideration at 10-1 or 9-2.
7. Stoney Brook wins out to take the NEC, Monmouth wins out and at 10-1 gets at large consideration.
8. Coastal Carolina wins out and at 9-2 and with a couple of quality wins gets at large consideration.
9. Chuck South wins out, goes 11-0 and gets at large consideration.
10. And yes, San Diego wins out, goes 11-0 and gets at large consideration.

Don’t know how many of these will play out, but every year it comes down to some tough decisions at the end and somebody will feel like they were screwed.

San Diego will only have played ten games by the time the playoff field is put together, and two of those games will have been against sub- D-I opponents. So for purposes of playoff consideration their record would be 8-0.

Similarly, Charleston Southern will have played four sub- D-I opponents, so their record would be 7-0.

Hampton has one win over a sub- D-I opponent, so their record would be 9-1. I doubt any eligible 10-win teams from auto-bid conferences have been left out of the playoffs, but I'm sure at least a few nine-win teams have. I'm not certain about this, though. Anyone know?

And so son. Anyway, I know I'm not exactly offering a brilliant new insight here, but it's important that with every team under consideration we take into account record-inflating wins over sub- D-I opponents (as well as record-deflating losses to I-A opponents--for which a 7-4 Portland State would be the poster child). It seems to me the first step of evaluating strength of schedule would be to subtract the sub- D-I wins and I-A losses from every team's record. Personally, I think a 7-2 Portland State team would warrant some serious consideration, especially if the crop of eight-win teams looks thin.

[TexasTerror]

A 10-1 Hampton team would be IN...

Delaware St only gets in if they win the MEAC...

Chuck South and San Diego have no business being in playoff talk...