View Full Version : The Effect of 2014 Schedules & the Playoffs
clenz
April 14th, 2014, 10:50 AM
And only two teams will make the playoffs even though 4 or 5 of them deserve it since the committee seems to look no further than records when selecting teams.
Exactly this.
Since NDSU isn't likely to run the table this year (though it could happen) it will be seen as "Well, NDSU isn't as good as they were...and the rest of the teams all lost to each other in some round about fashion. Clearly the MVFC is pretty weak" but when the Big Sky, CAA or Southland does it they get teams with 5 D1 wins in the playoffs.
clenz
April 15th, 2014, 08:13 PM
I have a very bad feeling UNI is going to get stuck with 11 games...meaning they'll need AT LEAST 8, if not 9, wins to make the playoffs. However, since UNI is a MVFC team it becomes a very tricky thing...lose OOC games but dominate the MVFC (but don't win the auto) and get left out because "Doing that shows the MVFC is a poor conference and you didn't beat anyone". Dominate OOC (including at least 1 FBS win) but lose a couple conference games and get left out because they don't have enough conference wins.
11 game season with 2 FBS games...YAY...though Hawaii should be beatable.
Hell...why not really give the selection committee silver bullet, instead of a regular bullet and throw a D2 game in there.....while that doesn't matter for other conferences it does here....
http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q340/unipanthers10/fmr_zpsf15b4895.jpg
Yotes
April 15th, 2014, 08:43 PM
I have a very bad feeling UNI is going to get stuck with 11 games...meaning they'll need AT LEAST 8, if not 9, wins to make the playoffs. However, since UNI is a MVFC team it becomes a very tricky thing...lose OOC games but dominate the MVFC (but don't win the auto) and get left out because "Doing that shows the MVFC is a poor conference and you didn't beat anyone". Dominate OOC (including at least 1 FBS win) but lose a couple conference games and get left out because they don't have enough conference wins.
11 game season with 2 FBS games...YAY...though Hawaii should be beatable.
Hell...why not really give the selection committee silver bullet, instead of a regular bullet and throw a D2 game in there.....while that doesn't matter for other conferences it does here....
USD had the misfortune of filling the 12th game with an NAIA opponent. Having a lower division team on the schedule really makes reaching the playoffs harder, not to mention makes for an incredibly uninteresting game, and should be avoided at all costs.
JayJ79
April 16th, 2014, 02:17 AM
Northern Iowa has a 2014 schedule posted on its website (http://www.unipanthers.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=626868&SPID=90703&DB_OEM_ID=26200&Q_SEASON=2014)
doesn't mean it is necessarily final, if they are able to land a 12th game (or if another school decides to be a jackass like Morgan State), but it is up there.
I don't get the logic that UNI has to win 8 or 9 games "because it has an 11-game schedule". It may be the case that it might take 8 wins to make the playoffs as an at-large, but that would be the case whether a team played 11 or 12 games. Playing 11 games just means less room for error. If anything playing only 11 might slightly increase the chances of getting in with 7 wins, considering the most popular argument against UNI last year (despite having 7 D-I wins) was "5-loss teams don't deserve to get an at-large". But if they had 7 wins in an 11-game schedule, they wouldn't be a 5-loss team.
Also, I really don't see how adding a sub-D1 teams as a 12th game would hurt their playoff chances (as long as they won). To me, 11 D1 games and a D2 win should be considered exactly the same as 11 D1 games alone as far as playoff consideration. Obviously it would be better to play (and win) another D1 game for that 12th game, but this late in the year, finding such an opponent is not likely. Now whether adding a home D2 game at this point would provide enough added ticket revenue to outweight what would likely be a fairly pricey D2 guarantee game, I don't know.
clenz
April 16th, 2014, 09:24 AM
Northern Iowa has a 2014 schedule posted on its website (http://www.unipanthers.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=626868&SPID=90703&DB_OEM_ID=26200&Q_SEASON=2014)
doesn't mean it is necessarily final, if they are able to land a 12th game (or if another school decides to be a jackass like Morgan State), but it is up there.
I don't get the logic that UNI has to win 8 or 9 games "because it has an 11-game schedule". It may be the case that it might take 8 wins to make the playoffs as an at-large, but that would be the case whether a team played 11 or 12 games. Playing 11 games just means less room for error. If anything playing only 11 might slightly increase the chances of getting in with 7 wins, considering the most popular argument against UNI last year (despite having 7 D-I wins) was "5-loss teams don't deserve to get an at-large". But if they had 7 wins in an 11-game schedule, they wouldn't be a 5-loss team.
Also, I really don't see how adding a sub-D1 teams as a 12th game would hurt their playoff chances (as long as they won). To me, 11 D1 games and a D2 win should be considered exactly the same as 11 D1 games alone as far as playoff consideration. Obviously it would be better to play (and win) another D1 game for that 12th game, but this late in the year, finding such an opponent is not likely. Now whether adding a home D2 game at this point would provide enough added ticket revenue to outweight what would likely be a fairly pricey D2 guarantee game, I don't know.
Do you pay attention to how the MVFC is selected for playoffs?
Win all your OOC games, including an FBS win and a beatdown of a seeded team? Great...Make sure you finish top 2/3 in your conference
Win all your OOC games and finish high in conference? Better hope you played a real tough OOC...a weak OOC isn't going to cut it...even if you beat them by 40-50 ppg
Win a lot in conference but not OOC? Well...you didn't win OOC so that proves the MVFC is weak and those wins count less
Only play 11 games? It would make sense you would only need 7 wins...but let's be real...the MVFC is bad...you need at least 8
D2 games don't matter for other conferences...a way will be found for it to hurt the MVFC...teams can get in winning 5 D1 games...not from the MVFC.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 16th, 2014, 02:33 PM
Do you pay attention to how the MVFC is selected for playoffs?
Win all your OOC games, including an FBS win and a beatdown of a seeded team? Great...Make sure you finish top 2/3 in your conference
Win all your OOC games and finish high in conference? Better hope you played a real tough OOC...a weak OOC isn't going to cut it...even if you beat them by 40-50 ppg
Win a lot in conference but not OOC? Well...you didn't win OOC so that proves the MVFC is weak and those wins count less
Only play 11 games? It would make sense you would only need 7 wins...but let's be real...the MVFC is bad...you need at least 8
D2 games don't matter for other conferences...a way will be found for it to hurt the MVFC...teams can get in winning 5 D1 games...not from the MVFC.
Ok spanos. You always have very good stats and facts about a team clenzy but there are also other factors that weigh in on the other teams being selected and although I would personally probably have made slightly differing selections at various times I can always see the reasoning why they went with someone else.
Do you think there is some conspiracy against the MVFC when it comes to members on this board as well? I think as an aggregate we lined up pretty closely with the selections don't you?
Last year I thought YSU and even UNI were worthy of being in for sure but other teams were as well and that leaves you in a lottery selection area unfortunately. Let go of the anger man.
BTW, I know I've just added to this but if we need to I'll peel thes off to an alternate thread because as I said a couple weeks back I'd like to keep this thread fairly on point with the schedules so there is not a bunch of other stuff to wade through so if I peel it off it's not because of anything other than the desire to keep this one sort of clean.xthumbsupx
IBleedYellow
April 16th, 2014, 02:52 PM
Do you pay attention to how the MVFC is selected for playoffs?
Win all your OOC games, including an FBS win and a beatdown of a seeded team? Great...Make sure you finish top 2/3 in your conference
Win all your OOC games and finish high in conference? Better hope you played a real tough OOC...a weak OOC isn't going to cut it...even if you beat them by 40-50 ppg
Win a lot in conference but not OOC? Well...you didn't win OOC so that proves the MVFC is weak and those wins count less
Only play 11 games? It would make sense you would only need 7 wins...but let's be real...the MVFC is bad...you need at least 8
D2 games don't matter for other conferences...a way will be found for it to hurt the MVFC...teams can get in winning 5 D1 games...not from the MVFC.
I have asked this before and I'll ask it again:
Who pissed in your cheerios when you were little? Yes the selection committee has had some mistakes in the past, but I feel they have been pretty fair with the MVFC in the years I've been following the conference (since 2008).
The answer for how to get into the playoffs is really easy: JUST WIN.
Professor Chaos
April 16th, 2014, 02:54 PM
Do you pay attention to how the MVFC is selected for playoffs?
Win all your OOC games, including an FBS win and a beatdown of a seeded team? Great...Make sure you finish top 2/3 in your conference
Win all your OOC games and finish high in conference? Better hope you played a real tough OOC...a weak OOC isn't going to cut it...even if you beat them by 40-50 ppg
Win a lot in conference but not OOC? Well...you didn't win OOC so that proves the MVFC is weak and those wins count less
Only play 11 games? It would make sense you would only need 7 wins...but let's be real...the MVFC is bad...you need at least 8
D2 games don't matter for other conferences...a way will be found for it to hurt the MVFC...teams can get in winning 5 D1 games...not from the MVFC.
You know, NDSU played 11 games last year including a D2 and the selection committee treated them pretty well at the end of the season. ;)
Both YSU and UNI had legitimate arguments for inclusion in the field last year but both couldn't argue that they cooked their own goose in the end. There's a difference between losing a couple conference games and losing 5 conference games. I don't necessarily endorse teams who are .500 in conference to make the playoffs but UNI should've and would've made it easily last year had they won one more games in the MVFC to get to 4-4 in conference and 8-4 overall. With an 11 game schedule this year including two FBS games I guarantee UNI would be in with 8 wins and possibly even with 7.
clenz
April 16th, 2014, 03:21 PM
Ok spanos. You always have very good stats and facts about a team clenzy but there are also other factors that weigh in on the other teams being selected and although I would personally probably have made slightly differing selections at various times I can always see the reasoning why they went with someone else.
Do you think there is some conspiracy against the MVFC when it comes to members on this board as well? I think as an aggregate we lined up pretty closely with the selections don't you?
Last year I thought YSU and even UNI were worthy of being in for sure but other teams were as well and that leaves you in a lottery selection area unfortunately. Let go of the anger man.
BTW, I know I've just added to this but if we need to I'll peel thes off to an alternate thread because as I said a couple weeks back I'd like to keep this thread fairly on point with the schedules so there is not a bunch of other stuff to wade through so if I peel it off it's not because of anything other than the desire to keep this one sort of clean.xthumbsupx
My issue, that I'll keep bringing up, is that a team was put in as an AL that had 5 (with one that is maybe a debatable 6th...never saw a true definitive answer) D1 wins was an at large. Yes that conference had two seeded teams - one of which UNI pulled the starters on with over half the 4th quarter left.
UNI had 7 D1 wins with an FBS (Granted Iowa State isn't a great FBS win). The reasoning given was UNI didn't win enough conference games - fair
The year before UNI had 7 wins - but one was a D2. left out - fair...until a team gets in with 5 D1 wins
YSU had 8 D1 wins only losses were Michigan State, NDSU (playoff) SDSU (playoff) and UNI (should have been playoff). The reason for leaving them out was weak OOC - would be fair they had 7 D1 wins instead of 8. No I don't believe their resume and falling apart at the end should get them in...but it should over a 5 win D1 team
To bring this back on topic of the thread so this doesn't get moved:
It was shown that a 7 win UNI team (with one of the strongest 3 OOC showings in the nation) isn't going to get in over a 3rd MEAC/OVC school. Only have 11 games and losing a 99.9999999% win of the schedule and not replacing it with another chance at a D1 win is a huge issue for UNI's schedule this season as of now. I think UNI is good enough to win 9-10 of the 11 games left on the schedule. However, in a worst case scenario UNI is at 7 D1 wins with only 11 D1 games played I have zero reason to believe UNI would get selected regardless of what games they won or lost...UNI has gotten into the playoffs just once without the AQ bid - a 3 way tie in 2005
Do I believe there is a "conspiracy" against the MVFC? Not really. I do find it really really odd that the OVC/MEAC continually get as many/more teams than the MVFC with a mere fraction of the playoff success that MVFC teams have.
Keeping it on the scheduling theme - to not get moved
What game could UNI add here that wouldn't be a detriment? A sub D1 is likely seen as a detriment. A weak FCS school is seen as a detriment (YSU last season). 11 games puts the team at a detriment due to not having as many opportunities. A strong FCS game could help - though it didn't last year. If UNI loses to that strong FCS team it hurts. An FBS game doesn't "hurt" but it doesn't help unless it's a W...and three FBS games is pretty silly.
Who is left that wouldn't hurt UNI come selection time if an AL is needed?
Lehigh Football Nation
April 16th, 2014, 03:28 PM
What game could UNI add here that wouldn't be a detriment? A sub D1 is likely seen as a detriment. A weak FCS school is seen as a detriment (YSU last season). 11 games puts the team at a detriment due to not having as many opportunities. A strong FCS game could help - though it didn't last year. If UNI loses to that strong FCS team it hurts. An FBS game doesn't "hurt" but it doesn't help unless it's a W...and three FBS games is pretty silly.
Trying to pick "weak" or "strong" OOC FCS games is a fool's game. You're better off scheduling Georgia State and winning that game, because of "schedule strength".
ursus arctos horribilis
April 16th, 2014, 03:28 PM
My issue, that I'll keep bringing up, is that a team was put in as an AL that had 5 (with one that is maybe a debatable 6th...never saw a true definitive answer) D1 wins was an at large. Yes that conference had two seeded teams - one of which UNI pulled the starters on with over half the 4th quarter left.
UNI had 7 D1 wins with an FBS (Granted Iowa State isn't a great FBS win). The reasoning given was UNI didn't win enough conference games - fair
The year before UNI had 7 wins - but one was a D2. left out - fair...until a team gets in with 5 D1 wins
YSU had 8 D1 wins only losses were Michigan State, NDSU (playoff) SDSU (playoff) and UNI (should have been playoff). The reason for leaving them out was weak OOC - would be fair they had 7 D1 wins instead of 8. No I don't believe their resume and falling apart at the end should get them in...but it should over a 5 win D1 team
To bring this back on topic of the thread so this doesn't get moved:
It was shown that a 7 win UNI team (with one of the strongest 3 OOC showings in the nation) isn't going to get in over a 3rd MEAC/OVC school. Only have 11 games and losing a 99.9999999% win of the schedule and not replacing it with another chance at a D1 win is a huge issue for UNI's schedule this season as of now. I think UNI is good enough to win 9-10 of the 11 games left on the schedule. However, in a worst case scenario UNI is at 7 D1 wins with only 11 D1 games played I have zero reason to believe UNI would get selected regardless of what games they won or lost...UNI has gotten into the playoffs just once without the AQ bid - a 3 way tie in 2005
Do I believe there is a "conspiracy" against the MVFC? Not really. I do find it really really odd that the OVC/MEAC continually get as many/more teams than the MVFC with a mere fraction of the playoff success that MVFC teams have.
Keeping it on the scheduling theme - to not get moved
What game could UNI add here that wouldn't be a detriment? A sub D1 is likely seen as a detriment. A weak FCS school is seen as a detriment (YSU last season). 11 games puts the team at a detriment due to not having as many opportunities. A strong FCS game could help - though it didn't last year. If UNI loses to that strong FCS team it hurts. An FBS game doesn't "hurt" but it doesn't help unless it's a W...and three FBS games is pretty silly.
Who is left that wouldn't hurt UNI come selection time if an AL is needed?
It did get moved but not as any sort of punishment or anything. It's a good discussion that deserves it's due since it is not right after the playoff selections when things are at a fevered pitch.
As for the points you made, they are solid but I just don't have much time to address them now so I'll get back to ya later but I can't see a whole lot I disagree with anyway except that as I said earlier there are pluses and minuses in each candidates favor.
Bison Fan in NW MN
April 16th, 2014, 03:51 PM
clenz:
I don't think you have to worry about UNI getting 'shafted' this year. If the Panthers stay healthy, they will have 9 or 10 wins IMO. With what they have coming back in '14, the playoffs is almost a sure thing.
Now if they have a ton of injuries again then anything is possible. But right now UNI is the frontrunner for the Valley auto this year.
Yotes
April 16th, 2014, 04:05 PM
Just look at any computer ranking of the teams and you'll see how piss poor the selection committee did this year. The Sagarin Ratings had the MVFC as a tougher conference than both the MAC, CUSA, every FCS conference, and is basically even with the Sun Belt, but only gets two bids?
Massey ratings of at-large teams from week before the playoffs:
Towson - 5
Montana - 6
South Dakota State - 7
McNeese State - 8
Fordham - 17
Northern Arizona - 19
New Hampshire - 20
Tennessee State - 21
Jacksonville State - 22
Sam Houston State - 24
South Carolina State - 27
Samford - 28
Southern Utah - 41
Massey ratings of MVFC teams who are ranked higher than Southern Utah:
UNI - 12
Youngstown State - 16
Southern Illinois - 18
Missouri State - 31
Illinois State - 33
I understand you can make an argument against a couple of these MVFC teams, especially Missouri State, but is there any good reason why UNI, Youngstown, and Southern Illinois were considered inferior to the bottom half of those at-large bids? The Sam Houston State, South Carolina State, and Southern Utah bids are a slap to the face of any team with playoff hopes.
SOS should be rewarded, not punished.
clenz
April 16th, 2014, 04:10 PM
clenz:
I don't think you have to worry about UNI getting 'shafted' this year. If the Panthers stay healthy, they will have 9 or 10 wins IMO. With what they have coming back in '14, the playoffs is almost a sure thing.
Now if they have a ton of injuries again then anything is possible. But right now UNI is the frontrunner for the Valley auto this year.
I agree...but I'm a UNI/Vikings/Twins fan. I expect nothing but worst case scenario.
JayJ79
April 16th, 2014, 04:17 PM
if UNI had only played 11 games last year, and had gotten 7 wins (let's say they hadn't played NoCo and had won one of their OT MVFC games), I bet they would have made the playoffs.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 16th, 2014, 04:19 PM
SOS should be rewarded, not punished.
Even among experts SOS is a tough concept to implement in football, with few OOC games for comparison and cross-division and cross-subdivision games.
Jacksonville State was ranked with a higher SOS than SHSU and Southern Utah when you could argue that the Gamecocks didn't have nearly as impressive wins as either the Bearkats (Eastern Washington) or Thunderbirds (Montana State, South Alabama). JSU's big star on their resume was a win over awful 0-11 Georgia State, an FBS school in name only.
FargoBison
April 16th, 2014, 04:21 PM
The Selection Committee is worthless. Just look at the computer formula they put together as a measure of their incompetence....
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-srs-poll
clenz
April 16th, 2014, 04:21 PM
if UNI had only played 11 games last year, and had gotten 7 wins (let's say they hadn't played NoCo and had won one of their OT MVFC games), I bet they would have made the playoffs.
That logic is easily made to be very very stupid.
UNI would have been better off to lose to McNeese State or Iowa State and beat Southern Illinois?
Same number of wins...but lesser quality wins...yet it makes UNI more playoff worth?
Really?
ursus arctos horribilis
April 16th, 2014, 04:24 PM
Just look at any computer ranking of the teams and you'll see how piss poor the selection committee did this year. The Sagarin Ratings had the MVFC as a tougher conference than both the MAC, CUSA, every FCS conference, and is basically even with the Sun Belt, but only gets two bids?
Massey ratings of at-large teams from week before the playoffs:
Towson - 5
Montana - 6
South Dakota State - 7
McNeese State - 8
Fordham - 17
Northern Arizona - 19
New Hampshire - 20
Tennessee State - 21
Jacksonville State - 22
Sam Houston State - 24
South Carolina State - 27
Samford - 28
Southern Utah - 41
Massey ratings of MVFC teams who are ranked higher than Southern Utah:
UNI - 12
Youngstown State - 16
Southern Illinois - 18
Missouri State - 31
Illinois State - 33
I understand you can make an argument against a couple of these MVFC teams, especially Missouri State, but is there any good reason why UNI, Youngstown, and Southern Illinois were considered inferior to the bottom half of those at-large bids? The Sam Houston State, South Carolina State, and Southern Utah bids are a slap to the face of any team with playoff hopes.
SOS should be rewarded, not punished.
You're not under the misunderstanding that they use those ratings right?
I'm not saying that there couldn't have easily been another MVFC team chosen over any of those you listed just saying that it's more of a discussion of worthiness than it's made out to be here. I would have personally taken YSU over at least one of them but it's not like it's a given.
NDSU added mightily to that SOS and nobody on that list of candidates beat them so if you measured the SOS without including NDSU where would they come in comparatively? I'm sure it's still very good but it woul be interesting to see if the top SOS and lowest SOS teams on each schedule were thrown out how this would shake out as well.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 16th, 2014, 04:26 PM
The Selection Committee is worthless. Just look at the computer formula they put together as a measure of their incompetence....
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-srs-poll
That I can totally agree with as this is not a tool to use either.
FargoBison
April 16th, 2014, 04:39 PM
The MVFC's biggest issue is that there is little to no fluff in the conference. Every game is tough, you don't get unbalanced schedules like you do in some other leagues.
If the MVFC wants more teams in the playoffs it should add a couple of patsies to the league.
Who gets selected is just a beauty contest based on their record. That has been made clear the past few years. That opinion isn't based purely on the MVFC either, in 2012 a damn good Towson team was left out.
JayJ79
April 16th, 2014, 04:42 PM
That logic is easily made to be very very stupid.
UNI would have been better off to lose to McNeese State or Iowa State and beat Southern Illinois?
Same number of wins...but lesser quality wins...yet it makes UNI more playoff worth?
Really?
no, I'm saying that the 5 losses was what hurt UNI last year. If they had beaten SIU and lost to McNeese, they still wouldn't have made it as they still would have had 5 losses. If they hadn't played McNeese, and had beaten SIU (or USD, or SDSU, or IlSU), they would have been at 7-4 and probably in. (and if they had beaten NDSU, they would have been in, even at 7-5. But if they had beaten the Bison, I really don't think they would have finished at 7-5)
ursus arctos horribilis
April 16th, 2014, 04:53 PM
The MVFC's biggest issue is that there is little to no fluff in the conference. Every game is tough, you don't get unbalanced schedules like you do in some other leagues.
If the MVFC wants more teams in the playoffs it should add a couple of patsies to the league.
Who gets selected is just a beauty contest based on their record. That has been made clear the past few years. That opinion isn't based purely on the MVFC either, in 2012 a damn good Towson team was left out.
Yes, what you'll need to get used to here is that damn good teams have always been left out. It is about finding the one team that deserves to sit on the top, if you are a team sitting in the gravel of the playoffs with other teams you were extremely unlikely to win that grand prize anyway. I'd be wiling to argue with anyone that not one pretty good team that was left out would have ever won the NC.
That doesn't mean they shouldn't do their damndest to get the best of what's left after the AQ's but whether anyone wants to believe it or not the point of who is/was a better team is not set in stone unless you happen to come from the MVFC from what I've seen over the years. MVFC fans have a penchant for seeing their league as far and away the best even when ranking like Massey etc. have had them as the 4th best league. At least now they are ranked as the top league but the protestations have been this way for many, many years from the MVFC fold.
This has been going on since before NDSU, SDSU, and USD were members of the conference.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 16th, 2014, 04:55 PM
no, I'm saying that the 5 losses was what hurt UNI last year. If they had beaten SIU and lost to McNeese, they still wouldn't have made it as they still would have had 5 losses. If they hadn't played McNeese, and had beaten SIU (or USD, or SDSU, or IlSU), they would have been at 7-4 and probably in. (and if they had beaten NDSU, they would have been in, even at 7-5. But if they had beaten the Bison, I really don't think they would have finished at 7-5)
I agree with all that.
darell1976
April 16th, 2014, 05:42 PM
USD had the misfortune of filling the 12th game with an NAIA opponent. Having a lower division team on the schedule really makes reaching the playoffs harder, not to mention makes for an incredibly uninteresting game, and should be avoided at all costs.
With the new rule, I would think AD's would stay away from them and DIII teams. At least DII gets you partial credit in the playoffs. There are plenty of DII teams in SD to call.
Yotes
April 16th, 2014, 07:48 PM
The Selection Committee is worthless. Just look at the computer formula they put together as a measure of their incompetence....
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-srs-poll
So, they put together a horrible system with the specific intention of determining the at-large bids with it, and then disregard it completely? The 29th ranked team is at-large material, but 16, 22, 24, 26, and 28 aren't? Their selection of teams seems to be random. It's a damn crime that the MVFC only got as many teams as the MEAC and Patriot League did.
Yotes
April 16th, 2014, 07:50 PM
With the new rule, I would think AD's would stay away from them and DIII teams. At least DII gets you partial credit in the playoffs. There are plenty of DII teams in SD to call.
Is partial credit against a terrible opponent better than playing a non-counter? If the D2 game counts, then your SOS really takes a hit.
Bisonator
April 16th, 2014, 08:24 PM
Just look at any computer ranking of the teams and you'll see how piss poor the selection committee did this year. The Sagarin Ratings had the MVFC as a tougher conference than both the MAC, CUSA, every FCS conference, and is basically even with the Sun Belt, but only gets two bids?
Massey ratings of at-large teams from week before the playoffs:
Towson - 5
Montana - 6
South Dakota State - 7
McNeese State - 8
Fordham - 17
Northern Arizona - 19
New Hampshire - 20
Tennessee State - 21
Jacksonville State - 22
Sam Houston State - 24
South Carolina State - 27
Samford - 28
Southern Utah - 41
Massey ratings of MVFC teams who are ranked higher than Southern Utah:
UNI - 12
Youngstown State - 16
Southern Illinois - 18
Missouri State - 31
Illinois State - 33
I understand you can make an argument against a couple of these MVFC teams, especially Missouri State, but is there any good reason why UNI, Youngstown, and Southern Illinois were considered inferior to the bottom half of those at-large bids? The Sam Houston State, South Carolina State, and Southern Utah bids are a slap to the face of any team with playoff hopes.
SOS should be rewarded, not punished.
This pretty much sums it up. SUU's inclusion last year was baffling to say the least.
FargoBison
April 16th, 2014, 09:12 PM
So, they put together a horrible system with the specific intention of determining the at-large bids with it, and then disregard it completely? The 29th ranked team is at-large material, but 16, 22, 24, 26, and 28 aren't? Their selection of teams seems to be random. It's a damn crime that the MVFC only got as many teams as the MEAC and Patriot League did.
Last year they were just experimenting with it, I hope they decided to get rid of it but I doubt we'll be that lucky.
darell1976
April 16th, 2014, 09:13 PM
Is partial credit against a terrible opponent better than playing a non-counter? If the D2 game counts, then your SOS really takes a hit.
I'm not sure. NDSU had a DII last year when this thing started of course since they ran the table it didn't affect them. Now if the Bison were 6-5 or 7-4 we would've seen how much of the DII game (partial credit) would have affected their playoff chances. Does anyone know of a team where the a DII game played a role in their playoff chances?
clenz
April 16th, 2014, 09:17 PM
I'm not sure. NDSU had a DII last year when this thing started of course since they ran the table it didn't affect them. Now if the Bison were 6-5 or 7-4 we would've seen how much of the DII game (partial credit) would have affected their playoff chances. Does anyone know of a team where the a DII game played a role in their playoff chances?
Either the SRS was VERY flawed (which it is/was) or playing 11 games and a D2 vs 12 games hurt NDSU in the SRS eyes.
Why else would EIU been a head of NDSU even though they had lost AND NDSU was the two time defending champions that have lost like twice in the last 3 years?
Red & Black
April 16th, 2014, 09:40 PM
Hawaii is very beatable.
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clenz
April 16th, 2014, 09:51 PM
Hawaii is very beatable.
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Agreed.
I'm honestly not all that concerned about have only 11 games as long as the team can stay healthy.
If the team stays healthy I see
Aug 30 @ Iowa - L but very close...possible upset
Sep 13 @ Hawai'i - W
Sep 20 Northern Colorado (Homecoming) - W
Oct 04 @ Indiana State - W
Oct 11 @ South Dakota - W
Oct 18 South Dakota State (Family Weekend) - W
Oct 25 @ Western Illinois - W
Nov 01 Illinois State - W
Nov 08 North Dakota State - W...tought but I'll take UNI in the dome this year
Nov 15 @ Southern Illinois - W...UNI finally gets the Salukis in Carbondale
Nov 22 Missouri State (Senior Day) - W
The only games I could see as a L right now, other than Iowa, is NDSU or SIU (and that's only because there seems to be a hex on UNI in Carbondale) - but not both.
A 10-1 or 9-2 record with that schedule is most likely. I'd like to see UNI buy Drake out of the NAIA game they have Sept 6th and garuntee them a game at Drake next season to get back to 6 home games and 2 games.
However, there is a chance only having 11, or playing 12 with a sub D1, will come back to haunt UNI....
Red & Black
April 16th, 2014, 10:01 PM
9-3 with a DII win (assuming they schedule one), and you're good. 8-4 and I'd start worrying, but still probably in coming from the MVFC, especially if one of those wins is FBS.
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clenz
April 16th, 2014, 10:05 PM
9-3 with a DII win (assuming they schedule one), and you're good. 8-4 and I'd start worrying, but still probably in coming from the MVFC, especially if one of those wins is FBS.
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Do you really think an MVFC school at 8-4 should/would feel confident on the AL bubble? Being completely honest with yourself.
Yotes
April 16th, 2014, 10:35 PM
Hawaii may be terrible, but I'd never feel certain about a win while travelling that far. 2, maybe 3 losses seems the likely outcome to me. After last season I just can't use "UNI" and "best-case scenario" in the same sentence, but it'll likely take another series of catastrophes to keep them out of the playoffs again (or a massive slew of 8-4 teams from the Big Sky, CAA, and Southland that take every single at-large bid, since they have priority apparently).
Red & Black
April 16th, 2014, 10:38 PM
Do you really think an MVFC school at 8-4 should/would feel confident on the AL bubble? Being completely honest with yourself.
Obviously depends mostly on what the rest of the AL field looks like and the composition of that 8-4 record, but in most scenarios I do. In terms of at large bids, I think they get it right most of the time. MVFC would have gotten 3 in this year had Youngstown not completely **** the bed.
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clenz
April 16th, 2014, 10:40 PM
Obviously depends mostly on what the rest of the AL field looks like and the composition of that 8-4 record, but in most scenarios I do. In terms of at large bids, I think they get it right most of the time. MVFC would have gotten 3 in this year had Youngstown not completely **** the bed.
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You believe that SUU and SHSU deserved to be in the playoffs over a UNI/YSU?
YSU's losses to end the season were to a UNI team that finally had second stringers getting in a grove (and won their last 3), SDSU (who was a playoff team that knocked off the #2 Big Sky team) and NDSU (who needs no explanation the past couple seasons)
Red & Black
April 16th, 2014, 10:46 PM
You believe that SUU and SHSU deserved to be in the playoffs over a UNI/YSU?
I'd have to compare the records as it's been a while now, but as I recall UNI was only a 7-win team this year and YSU lost a bunch of games late. Right or wrong, teams trending downward late in the season generally do not get selected over teams with the same record who won games late in the season. Generally speaking, I agree with that approach - I.E. teams that are showing improvement late in the season should be selected over those that aren't.
I believe an 8-4 Big Sky team deserves an at-large bid most of the time. Same is true of an 8-4 MVFC team...most of the time. The assumption being that you've gained that record by playing a handful of ranked teams within your conference to get there.
As far as SHSU goes, they didn't have the greatest overall record, but did have a couple of big wins, IIRC. The fact that they played in the NC for two years running probably didn't hurt them, either.
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clenz
April 16th, 2014, 10:54 PM
I'd have to compare the records as it's been a while now, but as I recall UNI was only a 7-win team this year and YSU lost a bunch of games late. Right or wrong, treams trending downward latein theseason generally do not get selected over teams with the same record who won games late in the season. Generally speaking, I agree with that approach - I.E. teams that are showing improvement should be selected over those that aren't.
I believe an 8-4 Big Sky team deserves an at-large bid most of the time.
As far as SHSU goes, they didn't have the greatest overall record, but did have a couple of big wins, IIRC. The fact that they played in the NC for two years running probably didn't hurt them, either.
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3 of their wins were sub D1. Their wins were Houston Baptist, Texas Southern , Incarnate Word, Lamar, Northwestern State, Stephen F Austin, and Nichols State....though they did beat EWU very early in the season.
They lost to UCA and SELA to end the season which isn't "as impressive" as losses to UNI/SDSU/NDSU. Their three FCS loses they lost by an average of 13 points - yet beat SUU in the playoffs.
I wish the MVFC could prop their conference record up by getting to play UND, UNC, UCDavis, Weber State, Idaho State, etc... The bottom of the Big Sky is ATTROCIOUS. The MVFC has Indiana State, whom UNI didn't get to play the last two seasons. After that there's WIU who is at least competitvive and then it's getting to play SDSU/NDSU/UNI/SIU/MSU/IlSU (who was good in conference last year).
I believe Southern Utah was a 7 D1 win team as well....unless Fort Lewis is now a D1 school.
So between the two 7 wins teams, UNI and SUU, who would you put in?
Red & Black
April 16th, 2014, 11:10 PM
3 of their wins were sub D1. Their wins were Houston Baptist, Texas Southern , Incarnate Word, Lamar, Northwestern State, Stephen F Austin, and Nichols State....though they did beat EWU very early in the season.
They lost to UCA and SELA to end the season which isn't "as impressive" as losses to UNI/SDSU/NDSU. Their three FCS loses they lost by an average of 13 points - yet beat SUU in the playoffs.
I wish the MVFC could prop their conference record up by getting to play UND, UNC, UCDavis, Weber State, Idaho State, etc... The bottom of the Big Sky is ATTROCIOUS. The MVFC has Indiana State, whom UNI didn't get to play the last two seasons. After that there's WIU who is at least competitvive and then it's getting to play SDSU/NDSU/UNI/SIU/MSU/IlSU (who was good in conference last year).
I believe Southern Utah was a 7 D1 win team as well....unless Fort Lewis is now a D1 school.
So between the two 7 wins teams, UNI and SUU, who would you put in?
ISU are UNC are historically the only two teams in the BSC that are atrocious. Weber's been bad the past couple of years, but you can't lump them in with ISU or UNC. Weber's at least made the playoffs somewhat recently. UND just made the transition, so I'm not quite ready to put them in that category, either. If they're still posting 3 win seasons a couple years from now, then sure. UC Davis will struggle to compete consistently in the BSC because their academic standards are higher than basically any other school in the conference.
It's all relative anyway. We don't get to play the ISU's and UNC's every year with the new 13 school format. From what I've seen in the playoffs the past few years, the conferences are pretty much on par. This year's blowout of S. Dakota State notwithstanding, the conferences are pretty competitive when it comes to head to head records in the playoffs, which is really the only viable metric to use for comparison.
I didn't think SHSU deserved to get selected at the time based on what you highlighted above...thought there were better options. But as I noted, their recent success probably had a lot to do with their selection as an AL.
For SUU, an 8-4 record even with a DII win is almost always going to look better than a 7-5 team in the eyes of the comittee. Right, wrong, or indifferent, that seems to be the way it goes. IIRC, both UNI and SUU had wins over ****ty FBS schools, so a push there.
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clenz
April 16th, 2014, 11:11 PM
ISU are UNC are historically the only two teams in the BSC that are atrocious. Weber's been bad the past couple of years, but you can't lump them in with ISU or UNC. Weber's at least made the playoffs somewhat recently. UND just made the transition, so I'm not quite ready to put them in that category, either. If they're still posting 3 win seasons a couple years from now, the. sure.
It's all relative anyway. We don't get to play the ISU's and UNC's every year with the new 13 school format. From what I've seen in the playoffs the past few years, the conferences are pretty much on par. This year's blowout of S. Dakota State notwithstanding, the conferences are pretty competitive when it comes to head to head records in the playoffs, which is really the only viable metric to use for comparison.
I didn't think SHSU deserved to get selected at the time based on what you highlighted above...thought there were better options. But as I noted, their recent success probably had a lot to do with their selection as an AL.
For SUU, an 8-4 record even with a DII win is almost always going to look better than a 7-5 team in the eyes of the comittee. Right, wrong, or indifferent, that seems to be the way it goes. IIRC, both UNI and SUU had wins over ****ty FBS schools, so a push there.
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Iowa State>>>>>>>>>>>>>>South Alabama
Red & Black
April 16th, 2014, 11:21 PM
Iowa State>>>>>>>>>>>>>>South Alabama
I don't know if I'd go that far. Both teams were pretty bad. S. Alabama at least posted 6 wins, albeit in a much ****tier conference. Point is I doubt the committee weighed a win over a crappy 3-9 Iowa State much higher than a win over an equally crappy 6-6 S. Alabama.
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clenz
April 16th, 2014, 11:23 PM
I don't know if I'd go that far. Both teams were pretty bad. S. Alabama at least posted 6 wins, albeit in a much ****tier conference. Point is I doubt the committee weighed a win over a crappy 3-9 Iowa State much higher than a win over an equally crappy 6-6 S. Alabama.
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Iowa State gets the fortune of playing Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in conference play every year - and Iowa in OOC.
South Alabama would have had maybe 1 win on Iowa States schedule...maybe.
Red & Black
April 16th, 2014, 11:44 PM
Exactly this.
Since NDSU isn't likely to run the table this year (though it could happen) it will be seen as "Well, NDSU isn't as good as they were...and the rest of the teams all lost to each other in some round about fashion. Clearly the MVFC is pretty weak" but when the Big Sky, CAA or Southland does it they get teams with 5 D1 wins in the playoffs.
Can't speak for the others, but there were no teams selected from the BSC that had 5 DI wins.
EWU (9 DI wins, 10 overall)
NAU (9 DI wins)
Montana (9 DI wins, 10 overall)
SUU (7 DI wins, 8 overall)
7-5 MSU sat at home.
MVFC bubble teams
YSU (8 DI wins with a really weak non- conference schedule). Wins over Dayton, Morehead State, and Duquesne are basically on-par with a win over a 33 scholarship DII school out west.
UNI (7 DI wins)
Southern Illinois (7 DI wins)
You could certainly make an argument that one of the 7 win teams from the MVFC deserved to get in over SUU, but no 7 DI team from the MVFC is going to get included over a 9 DI win team from the Big Sky. That's silly.
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ursus arctos horribilis
April 16th, 2014, 11:58 PM
Can't speak for the others, but there were no teams selected from the BSC that had 5 DI wins.
EWU (9 DI wins, 10 overall)
NAU (9 DI wins)
Montana (9 DI wins, 10 overall)
SUU (7 DI wins, 8 overall)
7-5 MSU sat at home.
MVFC bubble teams
YSU (8 DI wins with a really weak non- conference schedule). Wins over Dayton, Morehead State, and Duquesne are basically on-par with a win over a 33 scholarship DII school out west.
UNI (7 DI wins)
Southern Illinois (7 DI wins)
You could certainly make an argument that one of the 7 win teams from the MVFC deserved to get in over SUU, but no 7 DI team from the MVFC is going to get included over a 9 DI win team from the Big Sky. That's silly.
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Hey R&B, I moved those posts over to the new thread and will do the same with this one just so you know where it went. I'll grab that earlier one that I missed as well.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 17th, 2014, 12:00 AM
Iowa State gets the fortune of playing Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in conference play every year - and Iowa in OOC.
South Alabama would have had maybe 1 win on Iowa States schedule...maybe.
Yet a win over South Alabama or Georgia State is worth more than a win over Youngstown, thanks to an initial change from C to B, and fatally flawed SOS calculations. Youngstown is better than both, but worth less in SOS, which is how all the computer systems fall down, including everyone's favorite quoted system Sagarin.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 12:04 AM
Can't speak for the others, but there were no teams selected from the BSC that had 5 DI wins.
You could certainly make an argument that one of the 7 win teams from the MVFC deserved to get in over SUU, but no 7 DI team from the MVFC is going to get included over a 9 DI win team from the Big Sky. That's silly.
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Never said a 5 win BSC was selected.
Also never said a 7 win MVFC team should be in over a 9 win Big Sky team...
I did, however, say that last years 7 win MVFC teams were better than the Big Sky 7 D1 win teams...
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 12:20 AM
Never said a 5 win BSC was selected.
Also never said a 7 win MVFC team should be in over a 9 win Big Sky team...
I did, however, say that last years 7 win MVFC teams were better than the Big Sky 7 D1 win teams...
Saying it doesn't make it so but I'll give ya the benefit of the doubt and say in a battle you'd have come out even on both counts.
Sammy94
April 17th, 2014, 09:07 AM
1 of their wins were sub D1. Their wins were Houston Baptist, Texas Southern , Incarnate Word, Lamar, Northwestern State, Stephen F Austin, and Nichols State....though they did beat EWU very early in the season.
I fixed your stat for you. I think anyone who watched the playoff game between SHSU and SELA last year can see why Sam deserved to be there. I do think a MVFC team should of been there over SUU though.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 17th, 2014, 09:15 AM
By many measures, SUU (who got beat bad in the first round) had a better SOS than Jacksonville State (who made a run). Easy to say now that SUU didn't belong and Jacksonville State did, but based on their regular-season record it was not as easy a call.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 09:39 AM
By many measures, SUU (who got beat bad in the first round) had a better SOS than Jacksonville State (who made a run). Easy to say now that SUU didn't belong and Jacksonville State did, but based on their regular-season record it was not as easy a call.
The MEAC and OVC deserved 1 bid. A small case could be made for 2 from the MEAC but it'd have to be OJ defense lawyer good for me to believe it.
NoDak 4 Ever
April 17th, 2014, 09:42 AM
The MEAC and OVC deserved 1 bid. A small case could be made for 2 from the OVC but it'd have to be OJ defense lawyer good for me to believe it.
The expanded playoffs system is going to make a lot of people think teams from lesser conferences deserve this and that because they are finally going to start getting "playoff wins". Tennessee State over Butler? Come on.
344Johnson
April 17th, 2014, 11:33 AM
Best practice in a year like last year where there is an undefeated in a power conference... Treat everyone they played like they have one less loss come selection time.
IBleedYellow
April 17th, 2014, 11:49 AM
Did I miss August-November? Are we all mad that our teams got smited by the selection committee? xtroublex
Sader87
April 17th, 2014, 12:15 PM
Doesn't it basically come down to geography in a lot of ways.... in that the selection committee tries to minimize travel as much as possible in the earlier rounds????
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 12:31 PM
Doesn't it basically come down to geography in a lot of ways.... in that the selection committee tries to minimize travel as much as possible in the earlier rounds????
playoffs should be about getting the best teams in...not what schools are closest to other schools
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 01:07 PM
Did I miss August-November? Are we all mad that our teams got smited by the selection committee? xtroublex
Ah, this isn't unusual really to have a good, less vitriolic discussion about last season in the off season. Got a little more time to dig into what other people thought was important.
The thing they (we) always think is important is the thing that makes the strongest portion of our argument even though there are several other factors that seem to weigh just as much.
This fact will almost always remain true though. If you are outside the top 10 in the polls/computers then you are extremely similar in the eyes of the committee to everyone else outside with you and you may or may not get past the bouncers.
PaladinFan
April 17th, 2014, 01:13 PM
Furman will be interesting this year.
You look at the Paladins schedule, and I could see them playing no fewer than six ranked teams in a 12 game schedule (SCSU, USC, Coastal, Samford, UTC, and Wofford). They will be an interesting selection team if they are, say, the #3 SoCon team. I doubt there are that many teams in the FCS that will play that many ranked opponents.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 01:14 PM
playoffs should be about getting the best teams in...not what schools are closest to other schools
The best teams got in. Some of the mediocre teams got left out in favor or other mediocrity is all that happened and it's just a subjective call whether it was good or bad in anyone's opinion varies by person.
It's about finding one NC and they got that right no matter how you slice up the method of getting there.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 01:20 PM
Furman will be interesting this year.
You look at the Paladins schedule, and I could see them playing no fewer than six ranked teams in a 12 game schedule (SCSU, USC, Coastal, Samford, UTC, and Wofford). They will be an interesting selection team if they are, say, the #3 SoCon team. I doubt there are that many teams in the FCS that will play that many ranked opponents.
You hit on another thing that seems to be a biggie with the selections. Let's say you end up on the cusp and are a good looking at large team but you end up 4th in your own conference then you automatically better start revising your expectations on Selection Sunday.
SOS, Top 25 wins, and anything else seems to be muted quickly if you did not do well in your own conference. it's obviously the most important thing to getting the AQ and it also carries heavy, heavy weight in the AL.
If you are 4th or 5th in your own conference then just forget about it altogether in most cases.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 01:22 PM
The best teams got in. Some of the mediocre teams got left out in favor or other mediocrity is all that happened and it's just a subjective call whether it was good or bad in anyone's opinion varies by person.
It's about finding one NC and they got that right no matter how you slice up the method of getting there.
If it's only about the NC, which it is to an extent I grant you, there was no reason to play the playoffs last year...none
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 01:35 PM
If it's only about the NC, which it is to an extent I grant you, there was no reason to play the playoffs last year...none
Yes, I agree as it turned out that there was no point because we have hindsight on our behalf if the objective wasn't to have a playoff to determine what we already had a pretty good inkling of.
When we don't have hindsight in our favor we play the game's out right?
We have the national tournament to have the best team from each conference ply their wares against the best in other conferences to get to that one NC and since that is the objective of the process we got to our destination.
These things start going off the rails when we go in a direction with these sort of off the wall after the fact absolutes. The tournament is going to played, I'm sure we agree on that so let's deal with it as that.
IBleedYellow
April 17th, 2014, 02:02 PM
If it's only about the NC, which it is to an extent I grant you, there was no reason to play the playoffs last year...none
Yes there was. Your team itself proved that NDSU could be taken to the end of a rope. That game right there made the playoffs reason to play...Plus, the entire point of the playoffs is to get a NC. Without them there is no NC.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 02:04 PM
Yes there was. Your team itself proved that NDSU could be taken to the end of a rope. That game right there made the playoffs reason to play...Plus, the entire point of the playoffs is to get a NC. Without them there is no NC.
UNI proved UNI was the only team that could come close to NDSU...a healthy-ish UNI team.
When that UNI team pulls the starters on a seeded team in the playoffs you can start to put two and two together.
Also...****...Sawyer played his worst game of the season, DJ was out the 4th quarter, missing the best DT and WR on the team and still almost pulled it off...
Did you, for even a second, think NDSU would realistically lose?
I run a pick contest, as you know, and the only person that picked against NDSU was Darell...the entire season sans the K State game and a couple people for the UNI game. There was zero doubt after the UNI game that NDSU wouldn't lose.
IBleedYellow
April 17th, 2014, 02:10 PM
UNI proved UNI was the only team that could come close to NDSU...a healthy-ish UNI team.
When that UNI team pulls the starters on a seeded team in the playoffs you can start to put two and two together.
Also...****...Sawyer played his worst game of the season, DJ was out the 4th quarter, missing the best DT and WR on the team and still almost pulled it off...
Did you, for even a second, think NDSU would realistically lose?
I run a pick contest, as you know, and the only person that picked against NDSU was Darell...the entire season sans the K State game and a couple people for the UNI game. There was zero doubt after the UNI game that NDSU wouldn't lose.
Yes we feared we wouldn't win, know why? YOU HAVE TO PLAY THE GAME. Damn I'm glad our team didn't have the same mindset as you do.
PaladinFan
April 17th, 2014, 02:12 PM
You hit on another thing that seems to be a biggie with the selections. Let's say you end up on the cusp and are a good looking at large team but you end up 4th in your own conference then you automatically better start revising your expectations on Selection Sunday.
SOS, Top 25 wins, and anything else seems to be muted quickly if you did not do well in your own conference. it's obviously the most important thing to getting the AQ and it also carries heavy, heavy weight in the AL.
If you are 4th or 5th in your own conference then just forget about it altogether in most cases.
Hard to know. I imagine a scenario like 2013, where the SoCon is decided by a series of tie breakers amongst three teams. Furman could be 8-4 and in first place with losses to three top 25 teams and one unexpected loss to a conference opponent. They may also have three other wins against top 25 opponents but draw the short end of the tie breaker (similar to UTC in 2013).
Not a great record, but first in the conference, third SoCon team, and key wins over top 25 opponents.
JayJ79
April 17th, 2014, 02:22 PM
You hit on another thing that seems to be a biggie with the selections. Let's say you end up on the cusp and are a good looking at large team but you end up 4th in your own conference then you automatically better start revising your expectations on Selection Sunday.
SOS, Top 25 wins, and anything else seems to be muted quickly if you did not do well in your own conference. it's obviously the most important thing to getting the AQ and it also carries heavy, heavy weight in the AL.
If you are 4th or 5th in your own conference then just forget about it altogether in most cases.
and yet in many sports, the Big Ten gets 7-9 of their teams into the tournament/playoffs. kinda throws that logic out the window
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 02:23 PM
UNI proved UNI was the only team that could come close to NDSU...a healthy-ish UNI team.
When that UNI team pulls the starters on a seeded team in the playoffs you can start to put two and two together.
Also...****...Sawyer played his worst game of the season, DJ was out the 4th quarter, missing the best DT and WR on the team and still almost pulled it off...
Did you, for even a second, think NDSU would realistically lose?
I run a pick contest, as you know, and the only person that picked against NDSU was Darell...the entire season sans the K State game and a couple people for the UNI game. There was zero doubt after the UNI game that NDSU wouldn't lose.
clenz, let's deal with reality here. Even though UNI did that in one game they also didn't have the stuff to win other games so it could be seen as much as an anomaly as UNI losing 5 straight to lesser opponents.
If your team had made the playoffs it would have taken as much of a crushing as anyone else did if they even made it to the chance to play NDSU along the way which is also iffy.
I don't get the angle you are working on whether a game should be played or a tournament should be based on a favorite. Come back out of the rabbit hole my friend.
We have a tournament to establish a NC. Let's stick with that premise and debate the other points.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 02:26 PM
clenz, let's deal with reality here. Even though UNI did that in one game they also didn't have the stuff to win other games so it could be seen as much as an anomaly as UNI losing 5 straight to lesser opponents.
If your team had made the playoffs it would have taken as much of a crushing as anyone else did if they even made it to the chance to play NDSU along the way which is also iffy.
I don't get the angle you are working on whether a game should be played or a tournament should be based on a favorite. Come back out of the rabbit hole my friend.
We have a tournament to establish a NC. Let's stick with that premise and debate the other points.
I'm not debating we have a tournament and that it's used to decide the best team. However, level two to a tournament is to get the best teams available after the automatic births are given, correct?
I'll wait for an answer to that question, and that question only before I ask my next question so we aren't getting a head of ourselves.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 02:30 PM
and yet in many sports, the Big Ten gets 7-9 of their teams into the tournament/playoffs. kinda throws that logic out the window
WTF are you talking about? This is about the FCS playoffs. Now have there been times when the CAA had em' going 4 or 5 depp? Of course. It just doesn't happen very often and especially not with the BSC, MVFC, or anyone not named the CAA in the late 2000's.
I don't get your angle on comparing the basketball tourney to the FCS tourney which is what this thread and the statements in it are referencing.
You may have shot something to hell but whatever it was it was nowhere near the target.
RabidRabbit
April 17th, 2014, 02:32 PM
MVFC with 10 teams, the team needs to finish with no worse than a .500 conference record, and tied for third. THEN, IF had an outstanding OOC performance, get selected.
NDSU - Perfect, slam dunk into play-offs.
SDSU - Tied for second, OOC wins over another 2 AQ conference selectee's. Into play-offs (Should they have been the 5th seed?)
MoSt - Tied for second, horrible OOC performance. not selected.
SIU - Tied for 2nd, Poor OOC wins, D-II game, not to 7 D-I wins.
YSU - Tied for 2nd, lower RPI OOC wins, no wins over other potential selectees.
Il St - 6th place, only 5 W's
USD - tied for 7th place. Only 4 D-I wins, but includes win over 7th place tie, UNI.
UNI - tied for 7th place (but under tie break rules would be 8th). Great OOC, poor post-NDSU performance.
There will be multiple selections of MVFC teams when the 2 conditions are met. 2013 was the first time that an 8 D-I win MVFC team DID NOT get selected (YSU). UNI needed to get just ONE more conference W, and it is likely they would have been selected. Using the MVFC tie-breaker rules, Mo St actually would have been the #2 team, but they failed OOC.
Somebody from the MVFC, BSC, CAA are likely to get hosed due to their in conference performance, or due to their OOC performance.
Regarding where/who get matched up, it will be a rare year when Dakota selected at-large MVFCs don't get paired up with either Big Sky or Southland teams. Because the 3 MVFC Dakota schools are all a flight away rather than drivable. And Big Sky are all flights for any one other than U. of San Diego. This will lead to a lot of tougher 1st round match-ups for the western MVFC schools than most of the other conferences (except Big Sky) schools would face.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 02:35 PM
Hard to know. I imagine a scenario like 2013, where the SoCon is decided by a series of tie breakers amongst three teams. Furman could be 8-4 and in first place with losses to three top 25 teams and one unexpected loss to a conference opponent. They may also have three other wins against top 25 opponents but draw the short end of the tie breaker (similar to UTC in 2013).
Not a great record, but first in the conference, third SoCon team, and key wins over top 25 opponents.
Yes, with the way it shakes out in the SoCon for sure. To be clear I'm not saying if you are a top team like a 2 or 3 way tie for 1st or 2nd or 3rd in conference is a key to getting in. I'm saying if you are a natural 4th or 5th place team in a conference you are in serious jeopardy and no a likely participant.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 02:40 PM
MVFC with 10 teams, the team needs to finish with no worse than a .500 conference record, and tied for third. THEN, IF had an outstanding OOC performance, get selected.
NDSU - Perfect, slam dunk into play-offs.
SDSU - Tied for second, OOC wins over another 2 AQ conference selectee's. Into play-offs (Should they have been the 5th seed?)
MoSt - Tied for second, horrible OOC performance. not selected.
SIU - Tied for 2nd, Poor OOC wins, D-II game, not to 7 D-I wins.
YSU - Tied for 2nd, lower RPI OOC wins, no wins over other potential selectees.
Il St - 6th place, only 5 W's
USD - tied for 7th place. Only 4 D-I wins, but includes win over 7th place tie, UNI.
UNI - tied for 7th place (but under tie break rules would be 8th). Great OOC, poor post-NDSU performance.
There will be multiple selections of MVFC teams when the 2 conditions are met. 2013 was the first time that an 8 D-I win MVFC team DID NOT get selected (YSU). UNI needed to get just ONE more conference W, and it is likely they would have been selected. Using the MVFC tie-breaker rules, Mo St actually would have been the #2 team, but they failed OOC.
Somebody from the MVFC, BSC, CAA are likely to get hosed due to their in conference performance, or due to their OOC performance.
Regarding where/who get matched up, it will be a rare year when Dakota selected at-large MVFCs don't get paired up with either Big Sky or Southland teams. Because the 3 MVFC Dakota schools are all a flight away rather than drivable. And Big Sky are all flights for any one other than U. of San Diego. This will lead to a lot of tougher 1st round match-ups for the western MVFC schools than most of the other conferences (except Big Sky) schools would face.
Holy crap Rabbit where you been?!
That right there is a perfect example of what I was trying to say as far as what your creds are as a team. You can have all the SOS, ranking, or whatever else you want to have and if you are in those bottom slots you can just forget about it.
Wow, I honestly was sort of shocked at seeing that even though I should have known differently for some reason I thought UNI was middle of the conference last year even with their bad run in the middle of the season.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 02:50 PM
I'm not debating we have a tournament and that it's used to decide the best team. However, level two to a tournament is to get the best teams available after the automatic births are given, correct?
I'll wait for an answer to that question, and that question only before I ask my next question so we aren't getting a head of ourselves.
yes.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 02:52 PM
yes.
Do you feel the MEAC and OVC are as good as the MVFC? (re: deserve as many/more bids on a yearly basis as the MVFC)
superman7515
April 17th, 2014, 02:57 PM
But don't worry folks, we've been doing a lot of beta-testing and I think the brand new Clenz Brand Random Excuse Generator is going to be up and running soon (click to enlarge examples)...
18931
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You can even find suitable excuses for specific losses, for example, UNI losing to Lehigh...
18933
Simply go to http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/random-moyes-excuse-generator-david-6877533 and ask a question like; "Why did UNI lose?" or "Why did UNI lose this week?" or "Why did UNI lose yet again!?" and Clenz will have an excuse for you in an instant! Never again be at a loss when it comes to being outplayed!
NoDak 4 Ever
April 17th, 2014, 03:00 PM
But don't worry folks, we've been doing a lot of beta-testing and I think the brand new Clenz Brand Random Excuse Generator is going to be up and running soon (click to enlarge examples)...
18931
18932
You can even find suitable excuses for specific losses, for example, UNI losing to Lehigh...
18933
Simply go to http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/random-moyes-excuse-generator-david-6877533 and ask a question like; "Why did UNI lose?" or "Why did UNI lose this week?" or "Why did UNI lose yet again!?" and Clenz will have an excuse for you in an instant! Never again be at a loss when it comes to being outplayed!
UNI lost last year because NDSU played dirty and hurt all their players.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 03:01 PM
UNI lost last year because NDSU played dirty and hurt all their players.
Those words have never come from me.
I was also the first poster from UNI to give Lehigh all the credit for being UNI...
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 03:09 PM
Do you feel the MEAC and OVC are as good as the MVFC? (re: deserve as many/more bids on a yearly basis as the MVFC)
Here's where things get subjective clenzy.
Overall I do not think they are as good. We are now in the area of selecting individual teams, not conferences. So we need to (at this point) start looking in that direction and less to which conference they belong to is how it has always appeared to work to me.
If we take just last year, just last year I really would have had three from the MVFC and left out SHSU or SUU personally on first look but again we are now getting down in the rubble of the matter and which stone we choose has it's blemishes so which is the best one?
If you don't like the extension of the thought go ahead and cut it off where it works for the Q&A you were doing.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 03:10 PM
Those words have never come from me.
I was also the first poster from UNI to give Lehigh all the credit for being UNI...
I love the spelling mishaps you have with autocorrect. xlolx
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 03:13 PM
Here's where things get subjective clenzy.
Overall I do not think they are as good. We are now in the area of selecting individual teams, not conferences. So we need to (at this point) start looking in that direction and less to which conference they belong to is how it has always appeared to work to me.
If we take just last year, just last year I really would have had three from the MVFC and left out SHSU or SUU personally on first look but again we are now getting down in the rubble of the matter and which stone we choose has it's blemishes so which is the best one?
If you don't like the extension of the thought go ahead and cut it off where it works for the Q&A you were doing.
I'll keep going with questions based on answers...seems to work best here.
When deciding between two or three teams for an AL spot which is more important
1. OOC SOS/performance
2. Conference record
3. How close they are to another team in the playoffs
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 03:42 PM
I'll keep going with questions based on answers...seems to work best here.
When deciding between two or three teams for an AL spot which is more important
1. OOC SOS/performance
2. Conference record
3. How close they are to another team in the playoffs
Funny thing, on the last page I was gonna ask you to rank the top 5 drivers for selection.
I'll use your template.
1. Conference record-45%
2. D1 wins with special bump depending on strength of that win, in order: BCS win, Top 10 FCS team/FBS win, then other top 25 wins (FCS).-25%
3. OOC SOS/performance (road wins give a little bump as well) -15%
4. Rankings-The Committee's own rankings not anyone else's. -10%
5. Outside rankings like Massey, polls, or maybe an aggregate ranking of certain sources. - 5%
6. Is this team sinking now or is starting to swim back from depths it sank too? If they are swimming again have they made it to the surface?
Don't really know how to word #6 but it's outside the top 5 anyway so it's of lesser value anyway. I put percentages after em' to show a general idea of how it appears to me (my take) on what's important and to show that a simple 1,2,3,4, 5 ranking can have too simple a structure when it comes to how important things actually to the process.
"How close they are to another team in the playoffs "
This isn't even worth discussing as far as who makes it in. It does matter after the group is selected but not before
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 03:56 PM
Funny thing, on the last page I was gonna ask you to rank the top 5 drivers for selection.
I'll use your template.
1. Conference record-45%
2. D1 wins with special bump depending on strength of that win, in order: BCS win, Top 10 FCS team/FBS win, then other top 25 wins (FCS).-25%
3. OOC SOS/performance (road wins give a little bump as well) -15%
4. Rankings-The Committee's own rankings not anyone else's. -10%
5. Outside rankings like Massey, polls, or maybe an aggregate ranking of certain sources. - 5%
6. Is this team sinking now or is starting to swim back from depths it sank too? If they are swimming again have they made it to the surface?
Don't really know how to word #6 but it's outside the top 5 anyway so it's of lesser value anyway. I put percentages after em' to show a general idea of how it appears to me (my take) on what's important and to show that a simple 1,2,3,4, 5 ranking can have too simple a structure when it comes to how important things actually to the process.
"How close they are to another team in the playoffs "
This isn't even worth discussing as far as who makes it in. It does matter after the group is selected but not beforeI brought up the distance thing because someone else did...unless I completely misunderstood them.
Using your list UNI meets 55% of your criteria.
7 D1 wins with a bump for BCS win and top 10 FCS win (crushing really)
OOC - see the point above...crushed a seeded team, beat a B12 team, undefeated out of conference
Rankings UNI still hung around the 25 mark is a decent amount of voters polls by the end of the year
Outside rankings tend to really favor the MVFC/UNI last season
UNI won 3 straight to end the season so they were trending up as the team was starting to gel 2nd and third stringers into game speed and with other first teamers.
So, from your criteria, what % is needed to be in contention for a playoff spot?
Lehigh Football Nation
April 17th, 2014, 03:59 PM
I'll keep going with questions based on answers...seems to work best here.
When deciding between two or three teams for an AL spot which is more important
1. OOC SOS/performance
2. Conference record
3. How close they are to another team in the playoffs
4. FBS games scheduled
Fixed. #4. Followed by 2 and 3.
NoDak 4 Ever
April 17th, 2014, 04:07 PM
Fixed. #4. Followed by 2 and 3.
It carries weight. In 2010 NDSU got the last spot in the playoffs despite dropping a total turd against MoSt in the in the final regular season game largely on the strength of a weak but not insignificant win at Kansas.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 04:15 PM
I brought up the distance thing because someone else did...unless I completely misunderstood them.
Using your list UNI meets 55% of your criteria.
7 D1 wins with a bump for BCS win and top 10 FCS win (crushing really)
OOC - see the point above...crushed a seeded team, beat a B12 team, undefeated out of conference
Rankings UNI still hung around the 25 mark is a decent amount of voters polls by the end of the year
Outside rankings tend to really favor the MVFC/UNI last season
UNI won 3 straight to end the season so they were trending up as the team was starting to gel 2nd and third stringers into game speed and with other first teamers.
So, from your criteria, what % is needed to be in contention for a playoff spot?
I don't know dude. it isn't a certain percentage means you're in. It's a percentage (estimation) of how important these things are and it would also matter what the other contenders "scores" were.
Heck, we should use it and try and see how the other teams picked rank out on this estimation.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 04:16 PM
It carries weight. In 2010 NDSU got the last spot in the playoffs despite dropping a total turd against MoSt in the in the final regular season game largely on the strength of a weak but not insignificant win at Kansas.
IMO, which is apparently very different than the committee, FBS games shouldn't really matter but yet matter at the same time
Beat a low level FBS team - small boost
Beat a bad BCS conference team - a little big bigger boost
Beat an average BCS conference team - good size boost
Beat a top level BCS team - huge boost.
Lose to an FBS no affect - basically act as though that game isn't in the record
Get blown out by a BCS team and it should carry some negative implications
Get blown out by a lower level FBS team should really hurt
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 04:23 PM
I don't know dude. it isn't a certain percentage means you're in. It's a percentage (estimation) of how important these things are and it would also matter what the other contenders "scores" were.
Heck, we should use it and try and see how the other teams picked rank out on this estimation.
This is where the whole bias starts to play in though.
SHSU was ranked well all year - but lost to the good teams in there conference and played a crap OOC other than EWU, which was a good win
lost 2 straight to end the regular season
Finished 15thish in Sagarin (behind UNI, SIU), 22nd in Massey (behind SIU, WM, UNI, Youngstown State), 15th in one I really like for multiple sports in the state of Iowa - BCMoore though it does have flaws like every program http://ncaa.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2013/week15/1BRank.html behind UNI and SIU
RabidRabbit
April 17th, 2014, 04:53 PM
Clenz:
Do you feel the MEAC and OVC are as good as the MVFC? (re: deserve as many/more bids on a yearly basis as the MVFC)
RR comment:
For the last 8 years, the OVC & MEAC has not had the teams, the teams SOS, nor sufficient in-conference balance to exceed the # of MVFC teams in the play-offs. With the expansion to 24, there will be more at-large teams slots available. In 2014, was the 3rd best SoCon or MVFC, better than the 2nd best Southland, OVC or MEAC? Apparently the selection committee didn't think so. In fact, UTC as a tri-co-champ of the SoCon probably has a better argument (along the FBS xlolx win - Ga State, come on man) than either YSU or UNI.
Virtually all of the "last in" at-large's in 2014 had W vs FBS, or another play-off team. Some teams with FBS wins were left home, same as most years. Still need to do well vs your own conference to be selected.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 17th, 2014, 05:39 PM
This is where the whole bias starts to play in though.
SHSU was ranked well all year - but lost to the good teams in there conference and played a crap OOC other than EWU, which was a good win
lost 2 straight to end the regular season
Finished 15thish in Sagarin (behind UNI, SIU), 22nd in Massey (behind SIU, WM, UNI, Youngstown State), 15th in one I really like for multiple sports in the state of Iowa - BCMoore though it does have flaws like every program http://ncaa.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2013/week15/1BRank.html behind UNI and SIU
FWIW Sam Houston was one of my last teams in when I was picking for CSJ (and I had YSU in my field). To me, anyway, that win over EWU carried a lot of weight over the other at-large candidates, including SUU, SCSU, Charleston Southern, and Chatty.
Yotes
April 17th, 2014, 08:25 PM
You guys keep talking about UNI, like they were the only team that may have gotten the shaft. That's so wrong. I can understand UNI being left out with 5 losses, but can anyone explain why Southern Utah made it in over the other 8-4 teams? Or SHSU making it with so few D1 wins? The selection committee blew it, big time.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 17th, 2014, 08:40 PM
You guys keep talking about UNI, like they were the only team that may have gotten the shaft. That's so wrong. I can understand UNI being left out with 5 losses, but can anyone explain why Southern Utah made it in over the other 8-4 teams? Or SHSU making it with so few D1 wins? The selection committee blew it, big time.
Make the case for whatever team you'd like to Yotes. I'm only responding to the poster making a case for UNI as that is where the conversation was taken.
Talk about specific teams (not conferences) and I'll bet you that for every point you have there is an alternate point to be made in the case of the other...whether you agree with it or not. As I've said I would have had YSU in and probably Chattanooga over SHSU and SUU but it's a coin flip for the most part so nobody really has an edge if you were looking at it objectively.
Bisonator
April 17th, 2014, 09:29 PM
No reason to put a fourth BSC team in over other teams with similar results and even better rankings.
Yotes
April 17th, 2014, 09:52 PM
Make the case for whatever team you'd like to Yotes. I'm only responding to the poster making a case for UNI as that is where the conversation was taken.
Talk about specific teams (not conferences) and I'll bet you that for every point you have there is an alternate point to be made in the case of the other...whether you agree with it or not. As I've said I would have had YSU in and probably Chattanooga over SHSU and SUU but it's a coin flip for the most part so nobody really has an edge if you were looking at it objectively.
I don't have enough fight in me to make the full case, and you agree with me already, but Youngstown not making the playoffs was a joke. The only thing SUU has over YSU is a win over a terrible FBS team, but then counteracts that by only having 7 D1 wins.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 17th, 2014, 09:59 PM
I don't have enough fight in me to make the full case, and you agree with me already, but Youngstown not making the playoffs was a joke. The only thing SUU has over YSU is a win over a terrible FBS team, but then counteracts that by only having 7 D1 wins.
SUU beat Montana State and South Alabama, which isn't too bad in head-to-head comparison with Youngstown, who had two wins over non-scholarship Dayton and Morehead State on the schedule.
Full disclosure: I didn't pick SUU either.
Looking at the selections last season, it really looks like teams with a lot of non-scholly D-I teams on the schedule (Youngstown, Chuck South) were penalized.
NDSUSR
April 17th, 2014, 10:09 PM
Bowl games for everyone!!!!!!!!
Red & Black
April 17th, 2014, 10:33 PM
I don't have enough fight in me to make the full case, and you agree with me already, but Youngstown not making the playoffs was a joke. The only thing SUU has over YSU is a win over a terrible FBS team, but then counteracts that by only having 7 D1 wins.
I don't think SUU had a more compelling case than other teams with comparable records. That said, I don't think Youngstown State did, either. OOC schedule was really soft. Morehead State, Dayton...Duquesne? I'd be willing to bet that SUU's FBS win was the reason they got in over Youngstown.
What was the other MVFC team that should have gotten in, but didn't? Missouri State? Guess I'm a little confused.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
FargoBison
April 17th, 2014, 10:35 PM
UNI is the MVFC team should have been in.
SC State should have been left sitting at home.
But I know, we can't hurt the MEAC's feelings. Who cares that they haven't done anything in the playoffs for years and SC State didn't beat anyone. That 9-3 record with a D2 win was just too good. Playoff selection is nothing but a beauty contest based on record, the committee is afraid to make the correct controversial decision.
Same thing happened to Towson in 2012. Their record didn't look good enough, who cares that they were probably a top 10 team talentwise.
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 10:50 PM
I don't think SUU had a more compelling case than other teams with comparable records. That said, I don't think Youngstown State did, either. OOC schedule was really soft. Morehead State, Dayton...Duquesne? I'd be willing to bet that SUU's FBS win was the reason they got in over Youngstown.
What was the other MVFC team that should have gotten in, but didn't? Missouri State? Guess I'm a little confused.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You can keep talking about the South Alabama win...what about the other 6 D1 wins makes you think "Ooooh, that's a playoff team"? 3 point win over Sac State, 6 point win over Northern Colorado, 10 point win over Portland State, 10 point win over Idaho State, 6 point win over Weber State and 8 point win over Montana State. None of those are remotely close to impressive - most are on the rather disappointing side for a playoff team.
For a direct comparison UNI went to UNC won by 19 while running the ball between the tackles on just as many/more plays that they threw the ball that day which led to settling for 4 field goals from inside 31 yards. UNI outgained UNC by over 100 yards (putting up about 90 more yards than SUU did), averaged 3 yards per carry better than SUU did, and more yards per pass attempt than SUU did per completeion (UNI went 13.1 comp and 9.2 attempt to SUUs 7.1 per attempt and 9.1 per completion).
I know different teams, different times of the season but I'm trying to draw the best comparison I can on this.
This is, however, the exact same run around the MVFC has heard for some time from the selection committee and fans of other conferences. The conference was told to get more than 2 teams in the playoffs the bottom of the league needed to improve because Indiana State was so bad it hurt the rest of the league. Indiana State got better, USD came in and was respectable this year, WIU has improved, MSU isn't a push over nearly like they used to be...Now when those teams win a couple games it comes back as "Well, you aren't good enough to beat the bottom of your league so you don't deserve more than 2 teams in". However, when the CAA, Big Sky, Southland (last year) and SoCon pre ASU AND GSU leaving it was showing how strong the conference is/was.
For UNI the OOC was good but there wasn't enough conference wins
For YSU there was enough conference wins - and OOC wins but the OOC wins wins impressive enough...though SHSU's wins, other than 1, were not any better...same for SUU.
Which is it? Is the OOC more important (SOS and results) OR is the conference finish more important?
Guess how many times, since UNI's title game appearance in 2005, the Gateway/MVFC has gotten more than 2 teams in the playoffs (according to the playoff brackets posting on Wiki)? I'll give you a hint - USD has now spent as many (more come July 1st) as a member of the MVFC than the number of years the MVFC has had more than 2 teams...
Maybe it comes off as sour grapes, resentment, and feelings of conspiracy from MVFC fans, however, when one of the 3 best conferences in the nation can't get more than 2 teams in to the playoffs - and a decent number of years the same number/fewer teams than the MEAC/OVC - it starts to smell a little like dog ****.
Maybe the MVFC needs to raid a couple bottom feeders to be our Idaho State, Northern Colorado, Savannah State, Albany, Northeastern, Lamar, UIW, HBU, etc... That way the top teams can get to a high number of conference wins and create real separation from the bottom...maybe that will show strength....as long as it doesn't go back to the "Well, the bottom of your conference is weak" thing....but we all know that would happen again
clenz
April 17th, 2014, 10:54 PM
UNI is the MVFC team should have been in.
SC State should have been left sitting at home.
But I know, we can't hurt the MEAC's feelings. Who cares that they haven't done anything in the playoffs for years and SC State didn't beat anyone. That 9-3 record with a D2 win was just too good. Playoff selection is nothing but a beauty contest based on record, the committee is afraid to make the correct controversial decision.
Same thing happened to Towson in 2012. Their record didn't look good enough, who cares that they were probably a top 10 team talentwise.
I'm sure this isn't PC and will be chastised by some...but it's the truth.
The SWAC would find a way to get as many teams in the playoffs as the MVFC if they participated, too.
citdog
April 17th, 2014, 11:55 PM
SC State was more deserving of the bid than UNI. UNI just didn't get the job done to an overwhelming number of injuries.
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 12:04 AM
SC State was more deserving of the bid than UNI. UNI just didn't get the job done to an overwhelming number of injuries.
SC State doesn't even have a .500 record with UNI's schedule.
If they had beaten anyone maybe I would think somewhat differently about them but they had zero quality wins. Shouldn't an at-large playoff team have a quality win or is that too much to ask?
ursus arctos horribilis
April 18th, 2014, 12:51 AM
SC State doesn't even have a .500 record with UNI's schedule.
If they had beaten anyone maybe I would think somewhat differently about them but they had zero quality wins. Shouldn't an at-large playoff team have a quality win or is that too much to ask?
You guys can place all the emphasis you want on certain small pieces of the puzzle but one thing you need to include is doing well in your own conference. UNI has no better resume than the teams that did make it when you look at the overall resumes. It doesn't matter how they ended up there but if you want to argue that the last place team in the MVFC deserved a playoff bid then you can be assured that you have a tough sell in front of you and if it was a BSC team with an 8th place finish that Big Sky fans were putting forth with that same resume...well, we know how that would go.
The committee has made it very, very clear that they look at teams not conferences when it comes to who gets selected but for some reason the conference seems to be what it keeps going back to. It matters in how a team did in their conference but after that you need to move away from "this conference deserved more because..." type of arguments.
YSU had more chance than UNI of getting in last year. The conference record just cut the legs out of any argument UNI had. I'm sorry but I just don't see how that case for UNI can possibly stand the smell test.
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 01:22 AM
You guys can place all the emphasis you want on certain small pieces of the puzzle but one thing you need to include is doing well in your own conference. UNI has no better resume than the teams that did make it when you look at the overall resumes. It doesn't matter how they ended up there but if you want to argue that the last place team in the MVFC deserved a playoff bid then you can be assured that you have a tough sell in front of you and if it was a BSC team with an 8th place finish that Big Sky fans were putting forth with that same resume...well, we know how that would go.
The committee has made it very, very clear that they look at teams not conferences when it comes to who gets selected but for some reason the conference seems to be what it keeps going back to. It matters in how a team did in their conference but after that you need to move away from "this conference deserved more because..." type of arguments.
YSU had more chance than UNI of getting in last year. The conference record just cut the legs out of any argument UNI had. I'm sorry but I just don't see how that case for UNI can possibly stand the smell test.
Quality wins are a small pieces of the puzzle? That is the problem with the playoff selection.
UNI beat a Big 12 and pummeled a seeded team. SC State beat NCAT. This has nothing to do with conferences, nothing at all. This about the committee rewarding fluff over substance.
UNI would beat the tar out of SC State.
I do agree YSU had a better shot than UNI and that is completely screwed up. But the committee loves their fluff. It is hard to make a controversial decision and pick the best team when you'll be taking a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team or an 8-4 team.
If this was the NCAA basketball tournament committee picking teams they would have rewarded UNI because they have a system that actually rewards SOS and quality wins above all else.
Teams with gaudy records and no substance to back it up are punished and usually punished heavily.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 18th, 2014, 02:01 AM
Quality wins are a small pieces of the puzzle? That is the problem with the playoff selection.
UNI beat a Big 12 and pummeled a seeded team. SC State beat NCAT. This has nothing to do with conferences, nothing at all. This about the committee rewarding fluff over substance.
UNI would beat the tar out of SC State.
I do agree YSU had a better shot than UNI and that is completely screwed up. But the committee loves their fluff. It is hard to make a controversial decision and pick the best team when you'll be taking a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team or an 8-4 team.
If this was the NCAA basketball tournament committee picking teams they would have rewarded UNI because they have a system that actually rewards SOS and quality wins above all else.
Teams with gaudy records and no substance to back it up are punished and usually punished heavily.
Explain the losses away in conference now. Explain how the last place team in the conference should get another AL. I never said quality wins don't matter, I said they are one small piece of the puzzle and I will give you that piece of it cuz I don't disagree at all there. Now paint the picture on the other pieces for me and make that case.
Sorry but I just ain't buying into it in spite of those shiny spots in a body of work that is not more impressive than other bodies of work they are competing against.
You can make all the claims you'd like about who beats who and what another's record would be if they played whoever's schedule but when the game wasn't played the fantasy games don't matter one bit and you can't find a smaller piece of the puzzle than that.
You can certainly have any opinion you feel like having but nobody selecting teams should base anything on it, they should base it on what actually took place.
citdog
April 18th, 2014, 02:15 AM
SC State doesn't even have a .500 record with UNI's schedule.
If they had beaten anyone maybe I would think somewhat differently about them but they had zero quality wins. Shouldn't an at-large playoff team have a quality win or is that too much to ask?
SC State played SC State's schedule. They deserved a bid. Now if you want to make the same argument about the patsy league I'll HELP YOU!
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 02:45 AM
Explain the losses away in conference now. Explain how the last place team in the conference should get another AL. I never said quality wins don't matter, I said they are one small piece of the puzzle and I will give you that piece of it cuz I don't disagree at all there. Now paint the picture on the other pieces for me and make that case.
Sorry but I just ain't buying into it in spite of those shiny spots in a body of work that is not more impressive than other bodies of work they are competing against.
You can make all the claims you'd like about who beats who and what another's record would be if they played whoever's schedule but when the game wasn't played the fantasy games don't matter one bit and you can't find a smaller piece of the puzzle than that.
You can certainly have any opinion you feel like having but nobody selecting teams should base anything on it, they should base it on what actually took place.
Last place team? When did I ever start a debate about Indiana State getting an at-large?
At the end of the day UNI was 7-5 and SC State was 9-3(with 1 non-DI win).
UNI's SOS was #9
SC State's SOS was #82
UNI's quality wins: Iowa State, McNeese State and Youngstown State
SC State's quality wins: none
UNI's bad losses: USD
SC State's bad losses: none
What did SC State do? Can anyone tell me? The finished highly in the MEAC....La Di Fricken Da!
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 02:54 AM
UNI did have some conference losses but they had some injury issues, but by seasons end they had the ship righted again. It wasn't like they got blown out, they lost three OT games while battling a plague of injuries like I have never before seen.
SC State meanwhile lost to every good team that was put in front of them.
Yotes
April 18th, 2014, 03:17 AM
Said it before, I'll say it again. SOS should be rewarded, not punished. 7 wins against the 9th toughest schedule is far more impressive than 8 wins against the 82nd toughest schedule. Youngstown gets chastised for their weak non-conference schedule, I beat their SOS was still higher than 82nd.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 08:24 AM
I love the spelling mishaps you have with autocorrect. xlolx
Sadly that wasn't autocorrect.xsmhx
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 08:32 AM
SC State played SC State's schedule. They deserved a bid. Now if you want to make the same argument about the patsy league I'll HELP YOU!
Then, I can only assume you believe Marist deserved an AL?
They could only play their schedule - 8-3 and 7-1 in conference. They had 8 D1 wins. One of their losses was to a program that admitted to scholarship violations. Basically they were 8-2.
They didn't have any good wins, just like SCSU.
Their losses were Bucknell in week 2 (marginal loss I guess) and a loss in week 1 to playoff bound Sacred Heart.
No losses after week 2 to teams that didn't admit to cheating.
Let's hear a reason Marist shouldn't have been in.
Now that I think about it, Marist might be my new crusade...
It's funny that any justification for selecting SUU, SHSU, an OVC, MEAC team over YSU or UNI can EASILY be spun back to selecting either UNI r YSU over the others based on how you want to spin it OR spin it to a team like freaking Marist.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 18th, 2014, 09:22 AM
Common opponent:
Dayton
YSU (H): W 28-10
Marist (A): W 31-20
Marist = YSU. xlolx
NoDak 4 Ever
April 18th, 2014, 09:24 AM
SC State played SC State's schedule. They deserved a bid. Now if you want to make the same argument about the patsy league I'll HELP YOU!
If Lehigh moved to South Carolina somehow you would suddenly be making excuses upon excuses.
JSUBison
April 18th, 2014, 10:33 AM
Pretend you're on the committee, can someone make the argument why SHSU made the field and Chatty didn't?
NoDak 4 Ever
April 18th, 2014, 10:48 AM
Pretend you're on the committee, can someone make the argument why SHSU made the field and Chatty didn't?
2 playoff team wins vs 1 might have been the difference.
Don't say Georgia State, you know better.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 11:12 AM
Pretend you're on the committee, can someone make the argument why SHSU made the field and Chatty didn't?
Wins over such powers like UIW and HBU...and name recognition more than anything.
Really the focus of this thread so far has been YSU/UNI because it's mostly MVFC teams but there are a couple other teams that had a better case than a the MEAC/OVC/SHSU/SUU.
I realize these things happen yearly and when you get a cluster things like this happen - but it seems the committee usually gets it wrong.
Sammy94
April 18th, 2014, 11:15 AM
I realize these things happen yearly and when you get a cluster things like this happen - but it seems the committee usually gets it wrong.
I think most of you don't realize the politics behind the selection process.
MR. CHICKEN
April 18th, 2014, 11:17 AM
18935...EXPANDED #..O' DANCERS.....AN' STILL.....WOFFYISM.......LIVES.....xeekx........AW K!
PaladinFan
April 18th, 2014, 11:24 AM
SC State doesn't even have a .500 record with UNI's schedule.
If they had beaten anyone maybe I would think somewhat differently about them but they had zero quality wins. Shouldn't an at-large playoff team have a quality win or is that too much to ask?
SCSU was not a paper tiger. They were stout in a lot of areas and might have won a playoff game but for running into a hot Furman team. Very athletic on both sides of the ball.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 18th, 2014, 11:37 AM
Then, I can only assume you believe Marist deserved an AL?
They could only play their schedule - 8-3 and 7-1 in conference. They had 8 D1 wins. One of their losses was to a program that admitted to scholarship violations. Basically they were 8-2.
They didn't have any good wins, just like SCSU.
Their losses were Bucknell in week 2 (marginal loss I guess) and a loss in week 1 to playoff bound Sacred Heart.
No losses after week 2 to teams that didn't admit to cheating.
Let's hear a reason Marist shouldn't have been in.
Now that I think about it, Marist might be my new crusade...
It's funny that any justification for selecting SUU, SHSU, an OVC, MEAC team over YSU or UNI can EASILY be spun back to selecting either UNI r YSU over the others based on how you want to spin it OR spin it to a team like freaking Marist.
That is my entire point clenz. Some are saying things like "The committee totally blew it" and so forth but if you look at it there are blemishes on any team in the last few slots to get into the tournament. Hell just because I'm stating certain points of how or why this happens FB seems to think I'm advocating for SC State, or SUU, or someone else when I've said clearly it's really a toss up but getting any of you MVFC guys to admit that it might not be as cut and dry as you all think just won't happen.
UNI and YSU were both very good teams that just had things go wrong during the season and when it came to selections it just didn't fall their way. I just don't think it's a case of trying to keep the MVFC down because The MVFC is one of the top four conferences in all areas and it just doesn't make a lot of sense that the NCAA is looking to keep those teams out.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 11:42 AM
I think most of you don't realize the politics behind the selection process.
I realize there is politics...which is a huge part of the issue - and likely why the MVC has only had more than 2 teams twice since 2005 and never more than 3
Doesn't mean the right teams are getting in...in fact it's likely the key reason the wrong teams get in as frequently as they do.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 18th, 2014, 11:45 AM
SHSU had the best OOC win combined over all the at-large candidates, EWU, a fact impossible to ignore. That win alone is better than any of Youngstown's. IMO.
For that matter, EWU > ISU.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 11:46 AM
UNI and YSU were both very good teams that just had things go wrong during the season and when it came to selections it just didn't fall their way. I just don't think it's a case of trying to keep the MVFC down because The MVFC is one of the top four conferences in all areas and it just doesn't make a lot of sense that the NCAA is looking to keep those teams out.
How is it a top 2-3 conference routinely gets just 2 teams in while the OVC and MEAC get as many/more? Those two conference aren't anywhere close to the MVFC. The Big Sky and CAA get 3-4 per year.
If it's politics then it's pretty clear there is something going on to keep teams from the MVFC out and get OVC/MEAC or 4th-5th place teams from other conferences - right?
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 11:49 AM
SHSU had the best OOC win combined over all the at-large candidates, EWU, a fact impossible to ignore. That win alone is better than any of Youngstown's. IMO.
For that matter, EWU > ISU.
SHSU 23
McNeese St 31
Less than a month earlier
McNeese St 6
UNI 41
With starters pulled...
NoDak 4 Ever
April 18th, 2014, 12:04 PM
SHSU 23
McNeese St 31
Less than a month earlier
McNeese St 6
UNI 41
With starters pulled...
For some reason bad losses are ignored and good wins always remembered.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 12:10 PM
I'm still waiting for someone to make a case against Marist
8 D1 wins
Only 2 losses to teams that didn't admit to cheating
No bad losses
No good wins but...hey, they can only play the schedule in front of them...right?
Finished strong - won 5 in a row and didn't lose to a non-cheating team after week 2 so really won 8 in a row
co-champs of the PFL and only didn't get the auto bid because of a coin flip, or some stupid thing
Had conference DPOY and COY
RabidRabbit
April 18th, 2014, 12:31 PM
MVFC will almost always get 1 or 2 less than the CAA or Big Sky into the play-offs due to having 10 teams rather than 12 to 14.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 12:47 PM
MVFC will almost always get 1 or 2 less than the CAA or Big Sky into the play-offs due to having 10 teams rather than 12 to 14.
So if the MVFC added SEMO and..say...Drake (for **** and giggles) would the MVFC get 3 or 4 on a regular basis?
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 12:54 PM
So if the MVFC added SEMO and..say...Drake (for **** and giggles) would the MVFC get 3 or 4 on a regular basis?
That would be the way to go if the MVFC wants more teams. Bring in a couple of patsies. Just think if UNI played SEMO instead of SDSU and YSU played Drake instead of NDSU. Both would have one more win and would look infinitely better to the committee and people on this board because all they can do is play what is on their schedule.
Heck just think if YSU played Drake and SEMO instead of NDSU and SDSU....could be looking at a seeded team. This is what happens when you don't reward SOS. There is no reason for anyone in the FCS to play a tough schedule.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 18th, 2014, 12:59 PM
That would be the way to go if the MVFC wants more teams. Bring in a couple of patsies
Youngstown did this, and they were on the outside looking in.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 01:02 PM
That would be the way to go if the MVFC wants more teams. Bring in a couple of patsies. Just think if UNI played SEMO instead of SDSU and YSU played Drake instead of NDSU. Both would have one more win and would look infinitely better to the committee and people on this board because all they can do is play what is on their schedule.
Heck just think if YSU played Drake and SEMO instead of NDSU and SDSU....could be looking at a seeded team. This is what happens when you don't reward SOS. There is no reason for anyone in the FCS to play a tough schedule.
This is where that double standard comes in.
The conference could add weak teams...but then it becomes "the bottom of your conference is weak so it's just padding the record" - the MVFC has seen that said about them in the past...yet the bottom of the CAA and Big Sky is every bit as bad (worse due to the quantity of teams actually) than the MVFC.
The MVFC got better, sans Indiana State, and now the teams beat each other and are told your conference record isn't good enough - but when the CAA or Big Sky does it it shows strength top to bottom.
SOS is factored in when it comes to playing weak teams if you are from the MVFC - see YSU this past year....but it's not rewarded at the same time - see UNI.
I know other conferences won't see it but it's there. The OVC, in no way, deserves more teams than the MVFC in almost any year, including this past year. The MEAC shouldn't have the same number in any standard year.
That's why you see conference ADs and conference staff confused with what they need to do to get playoff bids.
NoDak 4 Ever
April 18th, 2014, 01:02 PM
Face it, Patty V is terrible. She is never going to advocate for us.
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 01:03 PM
Youngstown did this, and they were on the outside looking in.
They did not...they played every top team in the MVFC and Michigan State. But they don't get rewarded for playing a tough schedule, #14 in the FCS.
Put them in the MEAC and they are a seeded team. They would slice through the MEAC like a hot knife through butter.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 01:04 PM
Face it, Patty V is terrible. She is never going to advocate for us.
Also part of the problem, agreed.
However, that gets into politics...and goes to show they don't give a damn about putting the best teams in...only those that are willing to bend over the most
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 01:06 PM
This is where that double standard comes in.
The conference could add weak teams...but then it becomes "the bottom of your conference is weak so it's just padding the record" - the MVFC has seen that said about them in the past...yet the bottom of the CAA and Big Sky is every bit as bad (worse due to the quantity of teams actually) than the MVFC.
The MVFC got better, sans Indiana State, and now the teams beat each other and are told your conference record isn't good enough - but when the CAA or Big Sky does it it shows strength top to bottom.
SOS is factored in when it comes to playing weak teams if you are from the MVFC - see YSU this past year....but it's not rewarded at the same time - see UNI.
I know other conferences won't see it but it's there. The OVC, in no way, deserves more teams than the MVFC in almost any year, including this past year. The MEAC shouldn't have the same number in any standard year.
That's why you see conference ADs and conference staff confused with what they need to do to get playoff bids.
Well it worked for the Big Sky....but you might be right on the double standard thing. I'm sure the committee would find something, they always do.
Somebody explain SC State over YSU? Should SC State be rewarded for finishing higher in their lousy conference. Lets just forget that both had 8 DI wins, one school though played a top 20 schedule and the other was in the 80s.
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 01:11 PM
Face it, Patty V is terrible. She is never going to advocate for us.
She has no clue what to do. The league has a terrible TV deal and gets screwed regularly come playoff selection. I feel like walking into the MVC office and asking Patty..."What would you say you do here?"
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 01:17 PM
She has no clue what to do. The league has a terrible TV deal and gets screwed regularly come playoff selection. I feel like walking into the MVC office and asking Patty..."What would you say you do here?"Volume is really low...but if you know the movie you know what's coming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BjGA7Qs75g&list=PLNlb8nS8TTpsPSyq85GlkEdY NVRbPK3lb#t=64
Lehigh Football Nation
April 18th, 2014, 01:25 PM
The perfect FCS playoff bid conference consists of:
* Too many teams to actually play each other, so that you can get the all the benefits of good teams in conference without actually playing them. Let's say, 12-14 teams
* 2-3 complete ass teams in the conference that maybe have 1 or 2 wins that you get to play
* One mediocre team that somehow schedules and beats an FBS team early in the year, then gets a key injury to go 6-5
This allows you to claim "schedule strength" in conference without actually having to do it.
NoDak 4 Ever
April 18th, 2014, 02:10 PM
She has no clue what to do. The league has a terrible TV deal and gets screwed regularly come playoff selection. I feel like walking into the MVC office and asking Patty..."What would you say you do here?"
I'm sure she takes all the credit for NDSU coming in. Talk about a blind squirrel and a nut.
ursus arctos horribilis
April 18th, 2014, 03:25 PM
How is it a top 2-3 conference routinely gets just 2 teams in while the OVC and MEAC get as many/more? Those two conference aren't anywhere close to the MVFC. The Big Sky and CAA get 3-4 per year.
If it's politics then it's pretty clear there is something going on to keep teams from the MVFC out and get OVC/MEAC or 4th-5th place teams from other conferences - right?
I'm not saying that there may not be something political in the background working...I don't know it though so it's hard to attach a whole lot to it but it is possible.
Again though, we're mixing conferences and teams. I think the way I look at vs. how you may be looking at it is that I look after the AQ's are settled I look at every team left out there as being in the one pool coming from different regions of the country. The way they performed with all the aspects listed a few pages back is how I'd compare them against each other and how I'd select teams. If it so happens that somehow a team that was from a lesser conference barely, and I mean just barely edges out a team from a better conference then so be it. It's an all or nothing thing much like the electoral colllege.
But it looks worse than it is on the outside when you see 3 MEAC's and 2 MVFC's, but the margin was on two very similar resumes.
BTW, the BSC has mostly been a 2 bid league. Only once in a while has it gotten 3 and I think with this recent expansion is the first time it has ever gotten 4.
Just because it shakes out this way once in a while doesn't mean anything it's just statistical blips on the radar.
clenz
April 18th, 2014, 04:08 PM
I'm not saying that there may not be something political in the background working...I don't know it though so it's hard to attach a whole lot to it but it is possible.
Again though, we're mixing conferences and teams. I think the way I look at vs. how you may be looking at it is that I look after the AQ's are settled I look at every team left out there as being in the one pool coming from different regions of the country. The way they performed with all the aspects listed a few pages back is how I'd compare them against each other and how I'd select teams. If it so happens that somehow a team that was from a lesser conference barely, and I mean just barely edges out a team from a better conference then so be it. It's an all or nothing thing much like the electoral colllege.
But it looks worse than it is on the outside when you see 3 MEAC's and 2 MVFC's, but the margin was on two very similar resumes.
BTW, the BSC has mostly been a 2 bid league. Only once in a while has it gotten 3 and I think with this recent expansion is the first time it has ever gotten 4.
Just because it shakes out this way once in a while doesn't mean anything it's just statistical blips on the radar.
If conference record is going to matter you can't separate teams from conference. Conference ties into SOS. If the conference is weak why does it matter if you won 7 or 8 conference games. Every team except InSU and maybe WIU goes through the PFL undefeated. Again...Make a case for leaving Marist out then. If their conference doesn't matter - which means their conference SOS doesn't matter make a case for Marist being left out.
I completely understand what you're saying but it doesn't make sense to me - if that makes sense.
You want conference record to count for 45% of the selection want to ignore conference strength?
I know you said that it isn't a "you get this many % points and you're in" but A 3 or 4 MVFC conference loss team has a worse conference record than a OVC or MEAC team that gets to play a complete dog **** conference.
You can't separate the conference without disregarding SOS...which means you're then looking completely at rewarding only records. If that is the case YSU did it right last year playing 2 or 3 Pioneer teams with 8 D1 wins and a decent conference record...but still didn't get in
ursus arctos horribilis
April 18th, 2014, 05:00 PM
If conference record is going to matter you can't separate teams from conference. Conference ties into SOS. If the conference is weak why does it matter if you won 7 or 8 conference games. Every team except InSU and maybe WIU goes through the PFL undefeated. Again...Make a case for leaving Marist out then. If their conference doesn't matter - which means their conference SOS doesn't matter make a case for Marist being left out.
What the hell would I make a case for leaving Marist out for? I would think they were considered and compared as well. As I pointed out earlier I'd have to think there is a somewhat formulaic approach and certain things mean a certain amount in the process and when they add it all up the teams with the most points get the in. Of course it might not even be regimented into some sort of formula used but the idea is the same even if not.
You keep saying things like "If SOS doesn't matter" or whatever and this is not what I've said at any point. I've said it isn't the whole story and only a small piece of the puzzle. Since there are probably 5 or 10 pieces to what they look at no one or two pieces is all that large.
You say you can't separate teams from their conference but that just isn't true. The conference they came from already has provided in the SOS area, quality wins or losses, and various other factors and at the season's end you most certainly can separate teams from their conferences and make comparisons on them individually against each other.
Red & Black
April 18th, 2014, 10:04 PM
Heck just think if YSU played Drake and SEMO instead of NDSU and SDSU....could be looking at a seeded team. This is what happens when you don't reward SOS. There is no reason for anyone in the FCS to play a tough schedule.
Why does YSU need to play Drake and SEMO when they play Morehead State, Duquesne, and Dayton all in the same year?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 11:38 PM
Why does YSU need to play Drake and SEMO when they play Morehead State, Duquesne, and Dayton all in the same year?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Why because SOS doesn't mean anything, no point in breaking your back playing a tough conference schedule when the committee will reward a school for lining up a few solid teams(doesn't matter if you win or lose against them) and then just beat a a mediocore team or two and a bunch of patsies. Gives you that nice shiny 9-3 record...who cares if there isn't any real substance behind it. The committee won't look into that, just get that nice shiny record.
FargoBison
April 18th, 2014, 11:49 PM
SCSU was not a paper tiger. They were stout in a lot of areas and might have won a playoff game but for running into a hot Furman team. Very athletic on both sides of the ball.
They are the definition of a paper tiger. That is one thing the MEAC does well, produce paper tigers at a very high volume.
People may not like that opinion but you know what changes it? Winning meaningful games. I am an easy person to please, beat somebody...anybody and I will give you respect.
If they were as good as you say they would have done that, they had multiple chances and failed each time.
Red & Black
April 19th, 2014, 12:49 AM
Why because SOS doesn't mean anything, no point in breaking your back playing a tough conference schedule when the committee will reward a school for lining up a few solid teams(doesn't matter if you win or lose against them) and then just beat a a mediocore team or two and a bunch of patsies. Gives you that nice shiny 9-3 record...who cares if there isn't any real substance behind it. The committee won't look into that, just get that nice shiny record.
SOS does mean something, though. Not sure why there are people saying it doesn't. And OOC play factors into that overall SOS....
When you play an extremely weak non-conference schedule and then go on to lose a bunch of games within your own conference, the result seems to be you get left out.
YSU obviously plays in one of the tougher conferences in FCS, but so do a lot of other teams. The committee obviously wasn't impressed with OOC wins against Morehead State, Dayton, and Duquesne. Like you said in your post above, you need to play and beat somebody.
SUPharmacist
April 19th, 2014, 01:02 AM
The perfect FCS playoff bid conference consists of:
* Too many teams to actually play each other, so that you can get the all the benefits of good teams in conference without actually playing them. Let's say, 12-14 teams
* 2-3 complete ass teams in the conference that maybe have 1 or 2 wins that you get to play
* One mediocre team that somehow schedules and beats an FBS team early in the year, then gets a key injury to go 6-5
This allows you to claim "schedule strength" in conference without actually having to do it.
My goodness, this thread is making me agree with LFN. I am curious what happens as NDSU comes out of dynasty mode, and this makes me very nervous that chances will be nil if they are not winning auto-bids. What I would like to see is autp-bids for every league that wants to participate in the playoffs, and at-larges divided up based on conference records in the playoffs. If your conference isn't winning playoff games you are stuck with the 1 bid. If the conference is winning you gain more at larges. It would be a bitch at times, but it would open the door for conferences viewed as weak to gain more bids by winning in the playoffs, or to punish conference that are getting patsies in. It will never happen, but I can dream.
Lehigh Football Nation
April 19th, 2014, 01:05 AM
My goodness, this thread is making me agree with LFN.
Everyone gets there sooner or later. :)
FargoBison
April 19th, 2014, 02:38 AM
SOS does mean something, though. Not sure why there are people saying it doesn't. And OOC play factors into that overall SOS....
When you play an extremely weak non-conference schedule and then go on to lose a bunch of games within your own conference, the result seems to be you get left out.
YSU obviously plays in one of the tougher conferences in FCS, but so do a lot of other teams. The committee obviously wasn't impressed with OOC wins against Morehead State, Dayton, and Duquesne. Like you said in your post above, you need to play and beat somebody.
So what was so impressive about SC State then? Can somebody please answer this question? Their being in the field is clear sign that SOS means nothing.
Clenz brings up Marist....SC State was about as deserving to be in the field as Marist was. Both of them beat nobody. YSU was punished for playing a weak non-conference schedule and SC State was rewarded for playing in a very weak conference.
For the record I said UNI belonged in the field. They had a top 10 SOS and quality wins. I only brought up YSU because they were punished for playing a tough schedule, if they had softened it up a bit more with some weaker conference opponents they would have been in. Unfortunately MVFC teams don't have that luxury.
BTW this comment is straight from NDSU's beat writer after the selection show this year...
I'm done hearing from Mo Valley on strength of schedule and how that helps come playoff time. It hasn't since I've been covering FCS football
From another MVFC writer in response after listing to the committee chairman....
Playing in a tough conference would not seem to help especially if conference wins are a big factor like Bourne said
Yotes
April 19th, 2014, 03:17 AM
The last MEAC playoff win, according to my research, was in the 90s. How can anyone know that statistic and think that conference deserves two representatives in the playoffs? They don't deserve anything more than their auto-bid. Not until someone from the MEAC wins a playoff game. Case and point that SOS does not mean one thing in the committee's eyes. Get that 9-3 record and you're in, doesn't matter who you played.
FargoBison
April 19th, 2014, 03:29 AM
The last MEAC playoff win, according to my research, was in the 90s. How can anyone know that statistic and think that conference deserves two representatives in the playoffs? They don't deserve anything more than their auto-bid. Not until someone from the MEAC wins a playoff game. Case and point that SOS does not mean one thing in the committee's eyes. Get that 9-3 record and you're in, doesn't matter who you played.
Their best win was against North Carolina A&T...just let that sink in. A team with just 6 DI wins was their best win.
The committee had them at #18 in their rating system, which I'm sure really helped them. Like I said before, that SRS thing just proves how big of a joke the committee is. It is beyond horrible.
If I could make one change to FCS football it would be toss AD's off the selection committee and replace them with football people. The selection process would be infinitely better.
clenz
April 19th, 2014, 10:32 AM
I have yet time see anyone tell me why Marist didn't deserve a bid.
I've made a GREAT car for them...nearly flawless, imho.
Someone tell me why they weren't in the playoffs.
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superman7515
April 19th, 2014, 11:23 AM
My goodness, this thread is making me agree with LFN.
Everyone gets there sooner or later. :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onE8utryxE8
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