TT's Playoff Field Projections

[TexasTerror]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (11)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Lafayette
Pioneer: Butler
Southland: Southeastern La
Southern: Furman

AT-LARGE (13)
TBD

PROJECTED AT-LARGE LOCKS
Big Sky: Northern Arizona, Montana
Colonial: Towson
Independent: Fordham
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State, Youngstown State
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
Southland: McNeese State
Southern: Samford, Tennessee-Chattanooga

PROJECTED LAST TEAMS IN
Colonial: New Hampshire
MEAC: South Carolina State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State

PROJECTED TEAMS UNDER CONSIDERATION - LIKELY OUT
Big Sky: Montana State, Southern Utah
Big South: Liberty, Charleston Southern
Colonial: William & Mary, Delaware
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: Sam Houston State

[ValleyTalk]

How did all the at large candidates end up record wise???

[hebmskebm]

How is a 7-4 UNH in over a 7-5 W&M when W&M has a head to head win over UNH?

EDIT: Also, you missed including Fordham

[TexasTerror]

How is a 7-4 UNH in over a 7-5 W&M when W&M has a head to head win over UNH?

I posted this on KFs.com... "New Hampshire finished season with 6 wins in last 7 games, including 24-3 over a very good Maine team today. Good body of work in CAA with 6-2 mark stands for something in the eyes of the committee (in my opinion). Of note, William & Mary beat UNH 17-0 earlier this season... but W&M limped to finish line with two straight losses. Think that'll weigh in heavily with committee, in addition to three league losses for W&M."


EDIT: Also, you missed including Fordham

Good catch, Fordham is under consideration. I just do not see them getting in due to weak SOS and loss to sub. 500 Lafayette team. May be first or second team out, but gets a nudge ahead of Lehigh due to head-to-head and better record vs PL folks.

[underdawg]

You do realize of the 13 teams you mentioned, only Towson, McNeese, SDSU and YSU are rated above SIU in GPI, Massey etc?

[MTfan4life]

How is a 7-4 UNH in over a 7-5 W&M when W&M has a head to head win over UNH?

EDIT: Also, you missed including Fordham

My arguments would be A. Losses count as well. and B. W&M's best win would be UNH, while UNH's best win would be Maine. Maine is the much more impressive win. Not everything comes down to head-to-head.

[Professor Chaos]

I think Chatty and SCSU are out but SHSU and JSU are in. Agree on everyone else. I also think UNI will be strongly considered but ultimately left out.

[TexasTerror]

My arguments would be A. Losses count as well. and B. W&M's best win would be UNH, while UNH's best win would be Maine. Maine is the much more impressive win. Not everything comes down to head-to-head.

Good call! Thanks for adding in the feedback...


You do realize of the 13 teams you mentioned, only Towson, McNeese, SDSU and YSU are rated above SIU in GPI, Massey etc?

Five losses... beat Missouri State and then you are singing a different tune.

[Squealofthepig]

You do realize of the 13 teams you mentioned, only Towson, McNeese, SDSU and YSU are rated above SIU in GPI, Massey etc?

Although seven D1 wins is not an absolute requirement, there has yet to be a six-win team make it into the tourney (though if Montana State is in the "considered" pile, then I agree SIU also should be).

Edited for clarity - also, TT, Montana State only has six D1 wins - I would think if we're looking at six D1 wins SIU should be considered if MSU is.

[Fordham]

A nudge over Lehigh?!?!!?!

xconfusedx

[youwouldno]

I don't think Youngstown St. is a lock.

[Cocky]

JSU is in and out
SOCON should be a one bid league this year.

[dwtime]

How is a 7-4 UNH in over a 7-5 W&M when W&M has a head to head win over UNH?

EDIT: Also, you missed including Fordham

It should be easy as 1-2-3

UNH has:

1 Better win loss record
2 Better conference record
3 Better end of season record (UNH won their last two games, W&M lost their last two games, UNH 6-1 last 7 games, W&M 4-3 last 7 games)

[Fordham]

It should be easy as 1-2-3

UNH has:

1 Better win loss record
2 Better conference record
3 Better end of season record (UNH won their last two games, W&M lost their last two games, UNH 6-1 last 7 games, W&M 4-3 last 7 games)
I wonder if that's good enough to "nudge you by Lehigh"? xlolx

[Sly Fox]

How is YSU a lock? I have to wonder if a case can be made for them to be anything more than a bubble team.

[dwtime]

How is a 7-4 UNH in over a 7-5 W&M when W&M has a head to head win over UNH?

EDIT: Also, you missed including Fordham

Also many times head to head doesn't mean much even with everything being equal. Many (10+) years ago Villanova and UNH finished with 'identical' records, Nova won its last game UNH lost its last game and UNH really spanked Nova like 33-0 earlier in the season (although I also felt our 17-0 loss was pretty much a spanking as well). Nova got in ahead of UNH that year, UNH was left out.

[dwtime]

I wonder if that's good enough to "nudge you by Lehigh"? xlolx

I wasn't responding to the scenario of UNH getting in over Lehigh. xeyebrowx

[Lehigh'98]

Towson starched UNH last year the final week and UNH got in at 8-3 vs a 7-4 Towson.

[RabidRabbit]

IMHO, an 8 D-I wins MVFC team, tied for 2nd place in conference will make the 24-member play-offs. If this was still 16 teams play-offs, YSU would become the first 8 D-I win MVFC team to NOT be selected.

With all the losses today, and 2 less than 7 D-I wins AQ (Patriot, SoCon), YSU will be invited.

As mentioned earlier, Fordham is a glaring "missing" selection.

It will be interesting who the seeds are with Maine's, SHSU's losses. A fair # of teams, like every year, lost their way out of the play-offs today.

Lehigh, Charleston South, UT-Martin, Delaware should be definite outs.

SHSU, with 2 non-counter games, losses to SLU, McNeese, and UCA should end up missing play-offs.

If any 7-5 makes it, UNI is the most likely candidate.

[Mr. C]

I posted this on KFs.com... "New Hampshire finished season with 6 wins in last 7 games, including 24-3 over a very good Maine team today. Good body of work in CAA with 6-2 mark stands for something in the eyes of the committee (in my opinion). Of note, William & Mary beat UNH 17-0 earlier this season... but W&M limped to finish line with two straight losses. Think that'll weigh in heavily with committee, in addition to three league losses for W&M."



Good catch, Fordham is under consideration. I just do not see them getting in due to weak SOS and loss to sub. 500 Lafayette team. May be first or second team out, but gets a nudge ahead of Lehigh due to head-to-head and better record vs PL folks.
Are you serious? Fordham beat Villanova when the Wildcats were top-five in the country (before all of the injuries) and has a win over an FBS (Temple). Lehigh was a top-15-type team when Fordham beat the Mountain Hawks as well. The Rams also have two CAA wins. Fordham should be getting a seed, period. If you had actually seen the Rams play, you would know that this is one of a bout three or four teams that would actually have a shot at beating NDSU. The loss to Lafayette was with QB Michael Nebrich out of the lineup. For those who haven't seen Fordham, Nebrich is one of the top QBs in the country and will likely be on the College Sports Journal All-America team.

[Fordham]

I wasn't responding to the scenario of UNH getting in over Lehigh. xeyebrowx
Just piling on to what I thought was one of the more absurd statements I've seen on the board a little higher up in the thread, which is that we may be able to nudge by Lehigh for one of those at large spots.

"nudging by Lehigh" should be our new euphemism for a team who clearly deserves a spot as an at large IMO.

[smallcollegefbfan]

I would put the field like this.
Note: I assume EWU and McNeese win. I would adjust their records if they lose but they are both in no matter what so I felt good with posting during their games.

AUTO BIDS (11)
Big Sky- Eastern Washington 10-2
Big South- Coastal Carolina
CAA- Maine 10-2
MEAC- Bethune-Cookman
MVFC- North Dakota State 11-0
NEC: Sacred Heart
OVC- Eastern Illinois 11-1
Patriot League: Lafayette
Pioneer-League: Butler
Southland- Southeastern Louisiana 10-2
SoCon: Furman

AT-LARGE LOCKS (9)
McNeese State 10-2
Montana 10-3
Towson 10-2
NAU 9-2
Fordham 11-1
South Dakota State 8-4
Sam Houston State 8-4
Youngstown State 8-4
Tennessee State 9-3

ON THE BUBBLE- MOST LIKELY IN (2)
Jacksonville State 9-3
New Hampshire 8-4

ON THE BUBBLE- COULD GO EITHER WAY (8)
South Carolina State- 9-3
Southern Utah 8-4
Montana State 7-5
Southern Illinois 7-5
Chattanooga 8-4
UT Martin 7-5
William & Mary 7-5
Liberty 8-4

If it was me of that bottom 8 I would take SC State and SIU or Southern Utah.

[smilo]

Sure I'm a Villanova fan, but if we are talking about a 6-win team making it, then I'm not sure how the Bobcats or Salukis get more consideration than us. It has to come for the extra D2 win. All are 6-5 (5-3) vs. D1. Let's do a little schedule comparison.

1. Montana State is ending the season on a L3 streak. That is unacceptable. Sure, their schedule got harder at the end, but you really cannot fall apart like that. If Villanova's losing streak was at the end, then I'm not sure I could be arguing for them either. But whatever, I won't even include that. There are much worse things to hold against Montana State.

2. Loss comparison: All lost to 2 top 10's and a mediocre FBS. UNH and JMU = YSU and MSU > SUU and SFA. Montana State by far has the worst losses. I don't care if they didn't have their QB. SFA has been proven to be terrible and SUU is not quite as good as UNH or YSU. Now that we see they have lost to similar teams, let's see how competitive they were in those losses. Villanova lost by a combined 26 points. SIU lost by a combined 43 (reduced to 22 if we take out NDSU). MSU lost by a whopping 62.

3. Win Comparison. MSU has beaten top 10 NAU and a whole bunch of teams with losing records. SIU has beaten top 15 SDSU and a very low bubble team in UNI. Maybe I'll give them ISU-r, but that's not great. Villanova has beaten top 5 Towson, and true bubble teams William & Mary and Delaware. [Also, if SIU gets ISU-r, then we get Stony Brook]

Not saying Nova has to or should be in in any projections, but I'm sick of seeing MSU included. Their schedule is a joke. Villanova didn't even get a chance to play Albany, the conference doormat, or a pretty mediocre Richmond team. MSU played all bad teams. SIU is almost even with Nova, but I'd probably say we're slightly better than them objectively as well. Liberty is another 6 win team though I didn't even get around to comparing them.

[dwtime]

I wonder if that's good enough to "nudge you by Lehigh"? xlolx

But since you asked, no I don't think Lehigh is a lock. Three teams from the Patriot over three from Colonial? I think we both know which is the stronger of those two leagues. If Lehigh gets in and UNH is out? So be it. UNH dug their own grave in that case by blowing two games (Lehigh and Minnesota) that they should have won.

[Fordham]

But since you asked, no I don't think Lehigh is a lock. Three teams from the Patriot over three from Colonial? I think we both know which is the stronger of those two leagues. If Lehigh gets in and UNH is out? So be it. UNH dug their own grave in that case by blowing two games (Lehigh and Minnesota) that they should have won.theres no way Lehigh is a lock IMO and there's no way they should be under consideration for an at large IMO. That's my overall point - to have someone state that our resumes are anywhere near comparable is absurd IMO.

[dwtime]

I would put the field like this.

AUTO BIDS (11)
Big Sky- Eastern Washington 10-2
Big South- Coastal Carolina
CAA- Maine 10-2
MEAC- Bethune-Cookman
MVFC- North Dakota State 11-0
NEC: Sacred Heart
OVC- Eastern Illinois 11-1
Patriot League: Lafayette
Pioneer-League: Butler
Southland- Southeastern Louisiana 10-2
SoCon: Furman

AT-LARGE LOCKS (9)
McNeese State 10-2
Montana 10-3
Towson 10-2
NAU 9-2
Fordham 11-1
South Dakota State 8-4
Sam Houston State 8-4
Youngstown State 8-4
Tennessee State 9-3

ON THE BUBBLE- MOST LIKELY IN (2)
Jacksonville State 9-3
New Hampshire 8-4

ON THE BUBBLE- COULD GO EITHER WAY (8)
South Carolina State- 9-3
Southern Utah 8-4
Montana State 7-5
Southern Illinois 7-5
Chattanooga 8-4
UT Martin 7-5
William & Mary 7-5
Liberty 8-4

If it was me of that bottom 8 I would take SC State and SIU or Southern Utah.


I have Sam Houston State out and certainly not a lock. Two wins against the dancing preachers (Houston Baptist) and the tipsy priests (Incarnate Word) count for nothing, zip, nada, zero. That puts them at 6 D1 wins.

[dwtime]

theres no way Lehigh is a lock IMO and there's no way they should be under consideration for an at large IMO. That's my overall point - to have someone state that our resumes are anywhere near comparable is absurd IMO.

Well if you think Fordam is in over Lehigh I agree 100%.

[TigerFen]

Fordham Should be in the field and with the eight seed at the moment. Two great games to decide the top eight seeds going on at the moment. I think the win today puts them in and there is only one other 11 win team in NDSU. Fordham winning 11 games is an amazing feat and they deserve it.

[GoCats23]

Liberty 56, Chas. So. 14 Final (Chas. So. at 10-2 wins league autobid with win, but is probably out with a loss.) CSU finishes at 10-3. 3-2 in conference.
Maine 3, New Hampshire 24 Final (UNH at 6-4 is out with a loss, could be in with win.) UNH finishes season 7-4, 6-2 in conference.
Wofford 14, Furman 27 final (Furman out with a loss) Furman in with the SoCon auto bid.
SC State 17, Norfolk St.3 Final (SC St at 8-3 probably out with a loss) 9-3, 7-1 in the MEAC
Fla. A/M 10, B-Cookman 27 Final (B-C still in if SC St loses, but could be out with SC St. win and B-C loss) B-C finishes 10-2, 7-1 in the MEAC
Fordham 56, Colgate 19 Final (Fordham at 10-1 could be out, but is probably still in with loss) Fordham finishes 11-1
EIU 70, Tenn-Martin 22 final (Tenn-Mart could get in with win) UTM finishes 7-5, 5-3 in OVC
Chattanooga 0 Alabama 49 final (Chatt probably out with loss or wins by Furman and Samford) UTC finishes 8-4, 6-2 in Socon
Elon 32 Samford 33 final (Samford would be out with loss and Furman win) Samford finishes 8-4, 6-2 in socon
Delaware 34 Villanova 35 Final (Delaware at 7-4 is probably in with a win, out with a loss) UD 7-5, 4-4 in CAA. Nova 6-5
William and Mary 20 Richmond 31 (W/M at 7-4 is probably in with a win, out with a loss) W&M 7-5, 4-4 in CAA
SDSU 42 YSU 13 Final (winner in, loser out; YSU at 8-3 has slim chance if it loses; SDSU is 7-4) Both teams 8-4. 5-3 in MVFC
SE Missouri 34 Jacksonville St. 42 (Jax St at 8-3 probably out with a loss) Jax St 9-3, 5-3 in OVC.
SHSU 31 Cent. Arkanasas 49 (SHSU probably still in with loss) SHSU 8-4, 4-3 in southland
Lehigh lost to Lafayette to finish at 8-3, should be out.

Someone on Bobcat nation put this together, purely his thoughts. It was made for teams that could be bubble teams, I updated with results from todays games.

[robsnotes4u]

Mr. C.You are exactly right about Fordham and if they do not get a seed there is something definitely wrong.

[lionsrking2]

I would put the field like this.
Note: I assume EWU and McNeese win. I would adjust their records if they lose but they are both in no matter what so I felt good with posting during their games.

AUTO BIDS (11)
Big Sky- Eastern Washington 10-2
Big South- Coastal Carolina
CAA- Maine 10-2
MEAC- Bethune-Cookman
MVFC- North Dakota State 11-0
NEC: Sacred Heart
OVC- Eastern Illinois 11-1
Patriot League: Lafayette
Pioneer-League: Butler
Southland- Southeastern Louisiana 10-2
SoCon: Furman

AT-LARGE LOCKS (9)
McNeese State 10-2
Montana 10-3
Towson 10-2
NAU 9-2
Fordham 11-1
South Dakota State 8-4
Sam Houston State 8-4
Youngstown State 8-4
Tennessee State 9-3

ON THE BUBBLE- MOST LIKELY IN (2)
Jacksonville State 9-3
New Hampshire 8-4

ON THE BUBBLE- COULD GO EITHER WAY (8)
South Carolina State- 9-3
Southern Utah 8-4
Montana State 7-5
Southern Illinois 7-5
Chattanooga 8-4
UT Martin 7-5
William & Mary 7-5
Liberty 8-4

If it was me of that bottom 8 I would take SC State and SIU or Southern Utah.

You forgot Samford.

[cmaxwellgsu]

Just piling on to what I thought was one of the more absurd statements I've seen on the board a little higher up in the thread, which is that we may be able to nudge by Lehigh for one of those at large spots.

"nudging by Lehigh" should be our new euphemism for a team who clearly deserves a spot as an at large IMO.

That euphemism is awesome! xlolx

[FargoBison]

Fordham has to be in, only loss was without stud QB...I agree with the poster that was thinking 8 seed in regards to the Rams.

[Vooter]

Good catch, Fordham is under consideration. I just do not see them getting in due to weak SOS and loss to sub. 500 Lafayette team. May be first or second team out, but gets a nudge ahead of Lehigh due to head-to-head and better record vs PL folks.

To paraphrase Hall of Fame umpire Bill Klem, if you don't think Fordham is in the field, check the paper Monday...

[TexasTerror]

Updated my bracket.

You guys were right, huge omission on my part with Fordham.

I'll be the bigger man and acknowledge when I'm wrong. ;)

Still think So Carolina St gets in because the NCAA will not want to snub a second team from the MEAC if they can avoid it.

[clenz]

If we are going too (and rightfully so) penalize SHSU for only having 6 D1 wins we must do the same with SIU....

[R.A.]

Updated my bracket.

Still think So Carolina St gets in because the NCAA will not want to snub a second team from the MEAC if they can avoid it.

I agree with you TT, but you make it sound like it's not earned and like the committee is doing "Steat" a favor.

The Bulldogs' losses are to #11 10-2 Coastal 27-20, #14 10-2 Bethune, and FBS #7 10-1 Clemson 52-13.

"Steat" has zero bad losses.

I think SC State has absolutely earned an at large playoff bid.

[clenz]

I agree with you TT, but you make it sound like it's not earned and like the committee is doing "Steat" a favor.

The Bulldogs' losses are to #11 10-2 Coastal 27-20, #14 10-2 Bethune, and FBS #7 10-1 Clemson 52-13.

"Steat" has zero bad losses.

I think SC State has absolutely earned an at large playoff bid.
Great....


clutter the field with more MEAC and OVC teams that will **** the bed in the first round again....

[R.A.]

Great....


clutter the field with more MEAC and OVC teams that will **** the bed in the first round again....

And when we win, what will you say then?

[clenz]

I'll worry about that when it happens....


We hear that **** from the OVC every year....they haven't won a playoff game since 1997

[ValleyTalk]

If we are talking about 7 win teams making it, I still have some hope for YSU today, despite such an embarrassing performance today. On the bright side, got some terrific photos of the Ice Castle with snow!

[ValleyTalk]

Sports Network projections... Let's see how accurate they are at picking the bracket. Note they have 7 win UNI over 8 win YSU.

Lafayette/New Hampshire winner at No. 1 North Dakota State


Sacred Heart/Fordham winner at No. 8 Maine


Furman/South Carolina State winner at No. 5 Towson


Samford/Jacksonville State winner at No. 4 Southeastern Louisiana


Bethune-Cookman/Coastal Carolina winner at No. 3 Eastern Washington


Sam Houston State/Northern Arizona winner at No. 6 McNeese State


Tennesse State/South Dakota State winner at No. 7 Montana


Butler/Northern Iowa winner at No. 2 Eastern Illinois

[APaladindad]

I would put the field like this.
Note: I assume EWU and McNeese win. I would adjust their records if they lose but they are both in no matter what so I felt good with posting during their games.

AUTO BIDS (11)
Big Sky- Eastern Washington 10-2
Big South- Coastal Carolina
CAA- Maine 10-2
MEAC- Bethune-Cookman
MVFC- North Dakota State 11-0
NEC: Sacred Heart
OVC- Eastern Illinois 11-1
Patriot League: Lafayette
Pioneer-League: Butler
Southland- Southeastern Louisiana 10-2
SoCon: Furman

AT-LARGE LOCKS (9)
McNeese State 10-2
Montana 10-3
Towson 10-2
NAU 9-2
Fordham 11-1
South Dakota State 8-4
Sam Houston State 8-4
Youngstown State 8-4
Tennessee State 9-3

ON THE BUBBLE- MOST LIKELY IN (2)
Jacksonville State 9-3
New Hampshire 8-4

ON THE BUBBLE- COULD GO EITHER WAY (8)
South Carolina State- 9-3
Southern Utah 8-4
Montana State 7-5
Southern Illinois 7-5
Chattanooga 8-4
UT Martin 7-5
William & Mary 7-5
Liberty 8-4

If it was me of that bottom 8 I would take SC State and SIU or Southern Utah.

You left Samford out! They beat Chattanooga head to head and both are conference champs, both beat GSU! I think Sammy gets a bid before Chatty!

[clenz]

Sports Network projections... Let's see how accurate they are at picking the bracket. Note they have 7 win UNI over 8 win YSU.

Lafayette/New Hampshire winner at No. 1 North Dakota State


Sacred Heart/Fordham winner at No. 8 Maine


Furman/South Carolina State winner at No. 5 Towson


Samford/Jacksonville State winner at No. 4 Southeastern Louisiana


Bethune-Cookman/Coastal Carolina winner at No. 3 Eastern Washington


Sam Houston State/Northern Arizona winner at No. 6 McNeese State


Tennesse State/South Dakota State winner at No. 7 Montana


Butler/Northern Iowa winner at No. 2 Eastern IllinoisI'll take it!

[FargoBison]

I would put UNI in but I think the committee will opt to avoid putting a 7-5 team in.

[clenz]

I would put UNI in but I think the committee will opt to avoid putting a 7-5 team in.
very likely

[R.A.]

I'll worry about that when it happens....


We hear that **** from the OVC every year....they haven't won a playoff game since 1997

Make yourself available next saturday...

[UNHWildcat18]

This is going to be one mess of a selection....

[FargoBison]

My bracket...

CCU at SCSU vs 1. NDSU
Butler at YSU vs 8. NAU
Lafayette at Fordham vs 5. Towson
Samford at Jacksonville State vs 4. SELA


SDSU at Montana vs 3. EWU
Sacred Heart at UNH vs 6. Maine
Bethune-Cookman at SHSU vs 7. McNeese State
Furman at Tenn State vs 2. EIU


Last team in: YSU
First team out: SUU

[LehighU11]

UNI is a solid team that had a tough stretch after a slew of injuries, but there is something seriously wrong with this process if the Panthers make it into the field after finishing tied for 7th of 10 in their conference.

[RabidRabbit]

I would put UNI in but I think the committee will opt to avoid putting a 7-5 team in.
Especially one that finished 8th of 10. Not the same situation as 2010 when 6 of 9 teams were 4-4 in conference (and NDSU was one of those 6, but 3-0 OOC with an BCS included). 2013, 4 teams tied for 2nd at 5-3, UNI is 3-5.

[hebmskebm]

My bracket...

CCU at SCSU vs 1. NDSU
Butler at YSU vs 8. NAU
Lafayette at Fordham vs 5. Towson
Samford at Jacksonville State vs 4. SELA


SDSU at Montana vs 3. EWU
Sacred Heart at UNH vs 6. Maine
Bethune-Cookman at SHSU vs 7. McNeese State
Furman at Tenn State vs 2. EIU


Last team in: YSU
First team out: SUU

Has the committee ever outright matched up two teams from the same conference before? I know they've done it where two teams from the same conference can possibly meet in the second round, but I don't recall them ever doing it in the first.

[FargoBison]

Has the committee ever outright matched up two teams from the same conference before? I know they've done it where two teams from the same conference can possibly meet in the second round, but I don't recall them ever doing it in the first.

Yeah I screwed that up. Switch Sacred heart and Lafayette. It's still two bus trips, so it works out.

My bracket is built to maximize geography(bus trips).

[Pard4Life]

Has the committee ever outright matched up two teams from the same conference before? I know they've done it where two teams from the same conference can possibly meet in the second round, but I don't recall them ever doing it in the first.

That would be wrong and bizarre. Fordham and Pards played last weekend. Won't happen.

Switch Sacred Heart at Fordham and Pards at UNH and I like Fargo Bison bracket.

[hebmskebm]

Chatt/YSU vs. #1 NDSU
Butler/Tenn State vs. #2 EIU
SCSU/SDSU vs. #3 EWU
BCU/Samford vs. #4 SELU
Sacred Heart /UNH vs. #5 Maine
CCU/Furman vs. #6 Towson
Lafayette/Montana vs. #7 NAU
JSU/McNeese vs. #8 Fordham

[gotts]

I appreciate the work FargoBison has done every week with the projections.

It's inspired me to take a stab at it:

Samford @ Tennessee St vs #1 NDSU
South Carolina State @ Furman vs #8 NAU

Southern Utah @ Sam Houston St vs #4 SELA
Sacred Heart @ Fordham vs #5 Towson

South Dakota State @ Montana vs #3 EWU
Bethune Cookman @ Coastal Carolina vs #6 McNeese

Butler @ Youngstown State vs #2 EIU
Lafayette @ New Hampshire vs #7 Maine

[RabidRabbit]

Rabid thoughts on play-offs

SUU at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
Tn St. at Chatty vs 8. NAU
Sacred Heart at Fordham vs 5. Towson
Samford at Jacksonville State vs 4. SELA


Bethune-Cookman at Montana vs 3. EWU
Sacred Heart at UNH vs 6. Maine
Furman at Coastal Carolina vs 7. McNeese State
Butler at YSU vs 2. EIU

Last in: SUU/UNH
Last out: SCSU, SHSU

Hate that SDSU is only school within bus distance of NDSU. I think that the Jacks could have a deep run into the play-offs vs any other team. I'll (and every other AGS voter) would be shocked if NDSU doesn't sweep to the title again. Doggone regionalization.

[youwouldno]

My prediction (not how I would do it):

Butler @ Youngstown St vs. #1 North Dakota St
Bethune-Cookman @ McNeese St vs. #8 Northern Arizona

Jacksonville St @ Samford vs. #4 SE Louisiana
Lafayette @ New Hampshire vs. #5 Maine

Sacred Heart @ Chattanooga vs. #2 Eastern Illinois
Tennessee St @ Coastal Carolina vs. #7 Towson

South Dakota St @ Montana vs. #3 Eastern Washington
South Carolina St @ Furman vs. #6 Fordham

[Bogus Megapardus]

"Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games or for second
round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except
for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the
regular season; such teams may play each other in the first/second round)."


http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/fcs+selections/fcs+bracket

[Twentysix]

Just piling on to what I thought was one of the more absurd statements I've seen on the board a little higher up in the thread, which is that we may be able to nudge by Lehigh for one of those at large spots.

"nudging by Lehigh" should be our new euphemism for a team who clearly deserves a spot as an at large IMO.

Shoulda won your conference xsmiley_wix

[Twentysix]

I would put the field like this.
Note: I assume EWU and McNeese win. I would adjust their records if they lose but they are both in no matter what so I felt good with posting during their games.

AUTO BIDS (11)
Big Sky- Eastern Washington 10-2
Big South- Coastal Carolina
CAA- Maine 10-2
MEAC- Bethune-Cookman
MVFC- North Dakota State 11-0
NEC: Sacred Heart
OVC- Eastern Illinois 11-1
Patriot League: Lafayette
Pioneer-League: Butler
Southland- Southeastern Louisiana 10-2
SoCon: Furman

AT-LARGE LOCKS (9)
McNeese State 10-2
Montana 10-3
Towson 10-2
NAU 9-2
Fordham 11-1
South Dakota State 8-4
Sam Houston State 8-4
Youngstown State 8-4
Tennessee State 9-3

ON THE BUBBLE- MOST LIKELY IN (2)
Jacksonville State 9-3
New Hampshire 8-4

ON THE BUBBLE- COULD GO EITHER WAY (8)
South Carolina State- 9-3
Southern Utah 8-4
Montana State 7-5
Southern Illinois 7-5
Chattanooga 8-4
UT Martin 7-5
William & Mary 7-5
Liberty 8-4

If it was me of that bottom 8 I would take SC State and SIU or Southern Utah.

Southern Illinois on the bubble at 7-5 but not UNI??!?! BigXII FBS wins sure don't count for much anymore.

[underdawg]

very likely


Get ready for a big surprise

[TexasTerror]

I'm going to post my final bracket – taking Youngstown State out and placing Sam Houston State in since that seems to be where I've gone wrong per national pundits...

TOP BRACKET

Samford at Jacksonville State vs. No 1 North Dakota State
Butler at South Dakota State vs. No. 8 Montana

Bethune-Cookman at Coastal Carolina vs. No. 4 Southeastern Louisiana
South Carolina State at Furman vs. No 5 Towson

BOTTOM BRACKET

Northern Arizona at Sam Houston State vs. No. 3 Eastern Washington
Tennessee State at Tennessee-Chattanooga vs. No. 6 McNeese State

Sacred Heart at Fordham vs. No. 7 Maine
Lafayette at New Hampshire vs. No. 2 Eastern Illinois

[Twentysix]

I'm going to post my final bracket – taking Youngstown State out and placing Sam Houston State in since that seems to be where I've gone wrong per national pundits...

TOP BRACKET

Samford at Jacksonville State vs. No 1 North Dakota State
Butler at South Dakota State vs. No. 8 Montana

Bethune-Cookman at Coastal Carolina vs. No. 4 Southeastern Louisiana
South Carolina State at Furman vs. No 5 Towson

BOTTOM BRACKET

Northern Arizona at Sam Houston State vs. No. 3 Eastern Washington
Tennessee State at Tennessee-Chattanooga vs. No. 6 McNeese State

Sacred Heart at Fordham vs. No. 7 Maine
Lafayette at New Hampshire vs. No. 2 Eastern Illinois

National pundits are unaware of SHSU's non-counter games? I suspect. You should hope that the committee is too.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I'm going to post my final bracket – taking Youngstown State out and placing Sam Houston State in since that seems to be where I've gone wrong per national pundits...

TOP BRACKET

Samford at Jacksonville State vs. No 1 North Dakota State
Butler at South Dakota State vs. No. 8 Montana

Bethune-Cookman at Coastal Carolina vs. No. 4 Southeastern Louisiana
South Carolina State at Furman vs. No 5 Towson

BOTTOM BRACKET

Northern Arizona at Sam Houston State vs. No. 3 Eastern Washington
Tennessee State at Tennessee-Chattanooga vs. No. 6 McNeese State

Sacred Heart at Fordham vs. No. 7 Maine
Lafayette at New Hampshire vs. No. 2 Eastern Illinois


YSU is in IMO, maybe even UNI.

IMO, JSU-TSU do not make the field.

[ValleyTalk]

I think if YSU makes it, the most logical first round match-ups due to geography would be Butler or Lafayette and a 2nd round matchup at EIU or a CAA school.

BTW, the reason YSU schedule's the non-scholarship and partial scholarship FCS schools now is because they count as D1 wins in the eyes of the playoff committee. Before, YSU used to play 1-2 D2 schools every year, and 4-5 times under Tressel and Heacock they were on the bubble and did not make it because of those wins. Hence, Ron Strollo, who has served on the committee in the past, made the decision to change how we schedule. We shall see today if his logic holds true. Would hate to see SHSU make it over YSU because of the media narrative.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm failing to see why SCSU deserves inclusion at 8-3. You can talk all you want about how good their losses are but the fact is they have no quality wins. The only team they beat with a winning D1 record is NC A&T. YSU at 8-4 played a tougher schedule and got one extra D1 win plus they have a good win against SIU. They, among others, should be in before SCSU.

[clenz]

Southern Illinois on the bubble at 7-5 but not UNI??!?! BigXII FBS wins sure don't count for much anymore.

Especially since siu had only 6d1 wins

Sent from my S4 using Tapatalk

[TexasTerror]

National pundits are unaware of SHSU's non-counter games? I suspect. You should hope that the committee is too.

That is what I thought... I think everyone has been throwing around misinformation about HBU's status that perhaps some confusion exists?


I'm failing to see why SCSU deserves inclusion at 8-3. You can talk all you want about how good their losses are but the fact is they have no quality wins. The only team they beat with a winning D1 record is NC A&T. YSU at 8-4 played a tougher schedule and got one extra D1 win plus they have a good win against SIU. They, among others, should be in before SCSU.

South Carolina State is deserving of consideration for an at-large bid. Should they get in? You decide, but ultimately the committee decides. I've already hinted at why I think SCSU gets in. Do I agree with it? Not exactly, but they are deserving of consideration.

[Vooter]

Updated my bracket.

You guys were right, huge omission on my part with Fordham.

I'll be the bigger man and acknowledge when I'm wrong. ;)



No problem! :)

[jacksfan29]

Three teams from the OVC? Two from the MVFC. Talk about the dumbing down of FCS FB.


Rabid thoughts on play-offs

SUU at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
Tn St. at Chatty vs 8. NAU
Sacred Heart at Fordham vs 5. Towson
Samford at Jacksonville State vs 4. SELA


Bethune-Cookman at Montana vs 3. EWU
Sacred Heart at UNH vs 6. Maine
Furman at Coastal Carolina vs 7. McNeese State
Butler at YSU vs 2. EIU

Last in: SUU/UNH
Last out: SCSU, SHSU

Hate that SDSU is only school within bus distance of NDSU. I think that the Jacks could have a deep run into the play-offs vs any other team. I'll (and every other AGS voter) would be shocked if NDSU doesn't sweep to the title again. Doggone regionalization.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Southern Illinois on the bubble at 7-5 but not UNI??!?! BigXII FBS wins sure don't count for much anymore.

3-5 in MVFC play and 7th place. That's why I left them off. I think they are better than some of those on the list but I don't see the committee taking a team with a losing record in conference play as an at-large.

[clenz]

Three teams from the OVC? Two from the MVFC. Talk about the dumbing down of FCS FB.
Yep...

Expanding the field isn't going to add more teams that should be in....it is going to add more schools from **** conferences that beat up on a **** conference.

There is already a history of putting too many OVC/MEAC/SLC teams in....this is only going to make it worse.

[clenz]

3-5 in MVFC play and 7th place. That's why I left them off. I think they are better than some of those on the list but I don't see the committee taking a team with a losing record in conference play as an at-large.
So....the playoffs aren't about getting the best teams in the playoffs.

It's about rewarding those who beat up on complete dog **** all season.


Great. I hope UNI takes that into play going forward. Play only PFL/D2/NEC schools OOC

[smallcollegefbfan]

That is what I thought... I think everyone has been throwing around misinformation about HBU's status that perhaps some confusion exists?



South Carolina State is deserving of consideration for an at-large bid. Should they get in? You decide, but ultimately the committee decides. I've already hinted at why I think SCSU gets in. Do I agree with it? Not exactly, but they are deserving of consideration.

9-3 overall and co-champs of the MEAC. I think they are a lock to get in. I do think UNI, SIU, and some others who would get in after them are a better team but co-champs of an auto-bid league that has had some success in the playoffs before gets you in as long as you have 8 or more D1 wins. SoCon will be interesting this year because by that same token you have 2 who should get an at-large. Someone who has a very worthy resume compared to the others will get left out for sure.

[smallcollegefbfan]

So....the playoffs aren't about getting the best teams in the playoffs.

It's about rewarding those who beat up on complete dog **** all season.


Great. I hope UNI takes that into play going forward. Play only PFL/D2/NEC schools OOC

I think UNI should get in. I just don't think they are going to. You're schedule this year was very tough and UNI has a lot of talent. Your RB getting hurt was a blow to you guys. I think you have some great talent and regardless of what happens on selection Sunday I think UNI should be a top 8-10 team in the polls next year. You have more than enough to dethrone NDSU, especially considering Turner, Williams, Jensen, Ojuri, Olson, etc. are all gone.

Personally, I think the top 5-6 teams in the CAA and MVFC should get in this year. The top 12 teams from those two leagues are better than the #2 or #3 in about 4 or 5 other leagues. SoCon is weak this year with several solid teams but nobody great. MVFC has at least 3 teams who I could see in the final 8 and I would be shocked if less than 2 make it that far.

[Cocky]

Three teams from the OVC? Two from the MVFC. Talk about the dumbing down of FCS FB.
The OVC did have a good record against the MVC this season.

[Fordham]

Updated my bracket.

You guys were right, huge omission on my part with Fordham.

I'll be the bigger man and acknowledge when I'm wrong. ;)

Still think So Carolina St gets in because the NCAA will not want to snub a second team from the MEAC if they can avoid it.
Nicely done. You just 'nudged past Lehigh' in my personal poster rankings.

[TexasTerror]

If not mistaken, my only miss... SUU over UTC.

Not bad.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Well the bracket was exactly like I had it except Southern Utah got in instead of YSU. I am not shocked and I thought in those last 3 spots there were 5 or 6 teams in legit conversation. No real surprises this year.

[gotts]

I appreciate the work FargoBison has done every week with the projections.

It's inspired me to take a stab at it:

Samford @ Tennessee St vs #1 NDSU
South Carolina State @ Furman vs #8 NAU

Southern Utah @ Sam Houston St vs #4 SELA
Sacred Heart @ Fordham vs #5 Towson

South Dakota State @ Montana vs #3 EWU
Bethune Cookman @ Coastal Carolina vs #6 McNeese

Butler @ Youngstown State vs #2 EIU
Lafayette @ New Hampshire vs #7 Maine

Like many others, I had YSU in as an at-large. The only team I missed was Jacksonville St, and they were my first out (I'll show you the poll later to prove it). I think 7/8 seeds were hit, and 5 of the 8 first round matchups were on par. n00b status achieved!