What is Big Sky pecking order if SUU and MSU win?

[TypicalTribe]

If Southern Utah knocks off Northern Arizona and Montana State takes Montana in the brawl, I think the rest of the conference shapes up like this:

2. Southern Utah - wins over Montana State and Northern Arizona to close the season plus an FCS win over South Alabama
3. Montana State - only 7 FCS wins, but head-to-head over NAU and UM plus NAU didn't play EWU
4. Northern Arizona - head-to-head win over Montana
5. Montana - losses to MSU and NAU, plus if Port St loses to EWU, no wins for Grizzlies against a winning team

If things fell this way, it would seem to put Montana on the bubble, which seems strange considering most of us consider them to be in a a fight for one of the last of the 8 seeds.

Thoughts?

[citdog]

Southern Utah is a good football team. IMO they are playoff caliber. Montana State has faded as the season has progressed. NAU peaked when they whipped Montana. Montana is really an enigma. I could see it all coming together for them and the Griz making a deep run in the playoffs given the right bracket. Or i could see them making an early exit. A 9-3 Montana will make the playoffs. MSU may beat them and still stay home,

[ursus arctos horribilis]

If Southern Utah knocks off Northern Arizona and Montana State takes Montana in the brawl, I think the rest of the conference shapes up like this:

2. Southern Utah - wins over Montana State and Northern Arizona to close the season plus an FCS win over South Alabama
3. Montana State - only 7 FCS wins, but head-to-head over NAU and UM plus NAU didn't play EWU
4. Northern Arizona - head-to-head win over Montana
5. Montana - losses to MSU and NAU, plus if Port St loses to EWU, no wins for Grizzlies against a winning team

If things fell this way, it would seem to put Montana on the bubble, which seems strange considering most of us consider them to be in a a fight for one of the last of the 8 seeds.

Thoughts?

Your dead on. I am not so sure about MT with a seed even if we beat the Bobcats but we don't know how the Selection Committee has things ranked in their own ranking. I know there are a lot of misinformed people in Griz nation that seem to think the polls they see mean something and will assure us a seed if we win out. Don't know if or why the committee would give us the seed over NAU right now as it is. IF SUU beats NAU then it seems like a tossup because we move into a tie for second (MT now third place tie with SUU) in the BSC with SUU and NAU. NAU still has the head to head but we'd have one more D1 win so they could justify it that way.

[Texas]

SHSU #1
SFA #2
EWU #3

Who cares after that?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

SHSU #1
SFA #2
EWU #3

Who cares after that?
After that absolute ass kicking laid out by Weber on SFA and the area that Weber resides in the BSC I think you'd better take them off the list.

[Texas]

After that absolute ass kicking laid out by Weber on SFA and the area that Weber resides in the BSC I think you'd better take them off the list.

Good point sir!

[robsnotes4u]

Your dead on. I am not so sure about MT with a seed even if we beat the Bobcats but we don't know how the Selection Committee has things ranked in their own ranking. I know there are a lot of misinformed people in Griz nation that seem to think the polls they see mean something and will assure us a seed if we win out. Don't know if or why the committee would give us the seed over NAU right now as it is. IF SUU beats NAU then it seems like a tossup because we move into a tie for second (MT now third place tie with SUU) in the BSC with SUU and NAU. NAU still has the head to head but we'd have one more D1 win so they could justify it that way.

Good analysis


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[gotts]

Your dead on. I am not so sure about MT with a seed even if we beat the Bobcats but we don't know how the Selection Committee has things ranked in their own ranking. I know there are a lot of misinformed people in Griz nation that seem to think the polls they see mean something and will assure us a seed if we win out. Don't know if or why the committee would give us the seed over NAU right now as it is. IF SUU beats NAU then it seems like a tossup because we move into a tie for second (MT now third place tie with SUU) in the BSC with SUU and NAU. NAU still has the head to head but we'd have one more D1 win so they could justify it that way.

I think there are about 25,203 reasons the NCAA might think Montana will be on the right side of the bubble... :D

[Twentysix]

I think there are about 25,203 reasons the NCAA might think Montana will be on the right side of the bubble... :D

http://www.csbppl.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/moneypolitics1.jpg

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I think there are about 25,203 reasons the NCAA might think Montana will be on the right side of the bubble... :D

Well NAU probably ain't gonna be no slouch with 15-16K and a I'd bet a pretty healthy bid which will not be opened until after the seeding anyway. They are real hungry for this and would probably be at capacity and since UM would probably be a couple thousand short of capacity it's a little closer in attendance than at first glance probably.

I'm just not too solid on a seed if NAU wins, Towson wins, etc. Let's just say I'm not nearly as sure as the majority of Missoula is if the Griz were to win Saturday.

[mvemjsunpx]

Well NAU probably ain't gonna be no slouch with 15-16K and a I'd bet a pretty healthy bid which will not be opened until after the seeding anyway. They are real hungry for this and would probably be at capacity and since UM would probably be a couple thousand short of capacity it's a little closer in attendance than at first glance probably.

I'm just not too solid on a seed if NAU wins, Towson wins, etc. Let's just say I'm not nearly as sure as the majority of Missoula is if the Griz were to win Saturday.

NAU doesn't average 15-16K. More like 8K. Both them & the Griz could get a seed if they both win. NAU should be higher, but I'm not sure they will be (the Griz are a bit higher in the computer rankings, IIRC).

There seem to be people misinformed about the selection process each year. Montana's $$$$ won't get them in because the NCAA doesn't select the playoff teams, the playoff committee does. I'm pretty certain the playoff committee consists of school & conference personnel, not any employee of the NCAA. That being said, the Griz should be a lock at 9-3 regardless.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

NAU doesn't average 15-16K. More like 8K. Both them & the Griz could get a seed if they both win. NAU should be higher, but I'm not sure they will be (the Griz are a bit higher in the computer rankings, IIRC).

There seem to be people misinformed about the selection process each year. Montana's $$$$ won't get them in because the NCAA doesn't select the playoff teams, the playoff committee does. I'm pretty certain the playoff committee consists of school & conference personnel, not any employee of the NCAA. That being said, the Griz should be a lock at 9-3 regardless.

They don't average it, they have that capacity and I'm confident they'd be pretty close to it if they were to get a playoff game at home. Could be wrong but I'd assume they will do well in that regard.

As to the second part of your reply, I can't tell ya how many times I have that conversation with people that just look at me as if I have two heads because there are so many bar stool experts on how this all works.xthumbsupx

[Twentysix]

They don't average it, they have that capacity and I'm confident they'd be pretty close to it if they were to get a playoff game at home. Could be wrong but I'd assume they will do well in that regard.

As to the second part of your reply, I can't tell ya how many times I have that conversation with people that just look at me as if I have two heads because there are so many bar stool experts on how this all works.xthumbsupx

Think of all the German tourists that are going to the GC that would go to the playoff game!

[frozennorth]

1 ewu won conference, 9-2 vs d1 with top25 win
2 SUU 8-3 with an fbs win and a d2 win
3 NAU 8-3 all d1 w/ wi decent non-con win.
4 UM 8-3 vs d1 w/ decent non-con win +d2 win
5 MSU 7-4 vs d1 win with bad non-con loss + d2 win.

I think MSU is all but eliminated regardless

[mvemjsunpx]

They don't average it, they have that capacity and I'm confident they'd be pretty close to it if they were to get a playoff game at home. Could be wrong but I'd assume they will do well in that regard.

Could be, at least if it's not a first-round (Thanksgiving weekend) game.

[robsnotes4u]

NAU doesn't average 15-16K. More like 8K. Both them & the Griz could get a seed if they both win. NAU should be higher, but I'm not sure they will be (the Griz are a bit higher in the computer rankings, IIRC).

There seem to be people misinformed about the selection process each year. Montana's $$$$ won't get them in because the NCAA doesn't select the playoff teams, the playoff committee does. I'm pretty certain the playoff committee consists of school & conference personnel, not any employee of the NCAA. That being said, the Griz should be a lock at 9-3 regardless.

Can anyone explain why people think the BSC gets three seeds?


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[gotts]

NAU doesn't average 15-16K. More like 8K. Both them & the Griz could get a seed if they both win. NAU should be higher, but I'm not sure they will be (the Griz are a bit higher in the computer rankings, IIRC).

There seem to be people misinformed about the selection process each year. Montana's $$$$ won't get them in because the NCAA doesn't select the playoff teams, the playoff committee does. I'm pretty certain the playoff committee consists of school & conference personnel, not any employee of the NCAA. That being said, the Griz should be a lock at 9-3 regardless.

You mean like last year when ASU AD Charlie Cobb, member of the selection committee, was lobbying for NDSU to play a "lower ranked" team in the second round, and was effectively overruled by NCAA Director of Football Damani Leech?

[Professor Chaos]

I don't think UM gets a seed even if they beat MSU Saturday. Their best win would be against a non-playoff MSU team that stumbled to the finish. I think they're a lock either way but I'd expect them to be playing at home Thanksgiving weekend regardless what happens.

[MSUBobcat]

1 ewu won conference, 9-2 vs d1 with top25 win
2 SUU 8-3 with an fbs win and a d2 win
3 NAU 8-3 all d1 w/ wi decent non-con win.
4 UM 8-3 vs d1 w/ decent non-con win +d2 win
5 MSU 7-4 vs d1 win with bad non-con loss + d2 win.

I think MSU is all but eliminated regardless

MSU definitely made it hard on themselves last weekend, but are far from eliminated. If they beat the Griz, especially if by a decent margin, they'd be a shoe in, having beaten 2 of the other 3 BSC playoff teams (other being a thrashing of NAU).

[kalm]

NAU doesn't average 15-16K. More like 8K. Both them & the Griz could get a seed if they both win. NAU should be higher, but I'm not sure they will be (the Griz are a bit higher in the computer rankings, IIRC).

There seem to be people misinformed about the selection process each year. Montana's $$$$ won't get them in because the NCAA doesn't select the playoff teams, the playoff committee does. I'm pretty certain the playoff committee consists of school & conference personnel, not any employee of the NCAA. That being said, the Griz should be a lock at 9-3 regardless.

If that's the case, in this scenario, Montana has the weakest resume of the 5...just sayin...

[Red & Black]

Can anyone explain why people think the BSC gets three seeds?


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The Sky will get 4 in, but potentially 2 seeds. I don't see 3. I think SUU beats NAU, which will take them out of the equation.


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[Catbooster]

1 ewu won conference, 9-2 vs d1 with top25 win
2 SUU 8-3 with an fbs win and a d2 win
3 NAU 8-3 all d1 w/ wi decent non-con win.
4 UM 8-3 vs d1 w/ decent non-con win +d2 win
5 MSU 7-4 vs d1 win with bad non-con loss + d2 win.

I think MSU is all but eliminated regardless
Nit-pick: EWU also has a FBS win

Assuming the Cats beat the Griz this weekend (a big if at this point) I think they're still in the discussion by virtue of their head to head wins over 2 of the 3 teams.

Committee members change, playoffs expand, etc. so it's hard to know how much to rely on past precedents, but in the past it seems as though the committee has put quite a bit of weight on head to head. The one that I always remember was a few years back when the cats were ranked well below the #1 ranked eagles but got the #4 seed over their #5 seed. The only advantage the cats had over EWU that year was the head to head ( I think I'm remembering the details right).

[dbackjon]

Your dead on. I am not so sure about MT with a seed even if we beat the Bobcats but we don't know how the Selection Committee has things ranked in their own ranking. I know there are a lot of misinformed people in Griz nation that seem to think the polls they see mean something and will assure us a seed if we win out. Don't know if or why the committee would give us the seed over NAU right now as it is. IF SUU beats NAU then it seems like a tossup because we move into a tie for second (MT now third place tie with SUU) in the BSC with SUU and NAU. NAU still has the head to head but we'd have one more D1 win so they could justify it that way.

NAU and Montana have the same number of D1 wins.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

NAU and Montana have the same number of D1 wins.

Not if SUU were to beat NAU and the Griz were to beat the Cats. That's the only way I could see them having a legit argument for giving it to UM over NAU.

[dbackjon]

Not if SUU were to beat NAU and the Griz were to beat the Cats. That's the only way I could see them having a legit argument for giving it to UM over NAU.


gotcha - I was going with the thread title, which had SUU and MSU winning...

[Walkon79]

Nothing to support this but gut feeling, but if the Bobcats pull the upset, NAU/SUU turns into a must win to get in. I don't see the committee leaving UM out at 9-3, and I also don't think the BSC gets five. It would be hard to turn the Bobcats away, for some of the same reasons mention about the Griz, $$$. The Cats probably wouldn't fill up 2 days after Thanksgiving, but I would bet they would put 16,000 butts in the seats if they hosted, and we have proven to travel well as a fanbase if they put us on the road.

[Walkon79]

1 ewu won conference, 9-2 vs d1 with top25 win
2 SUU 8-3 with an fbs win and a d2 win
3 NAU 8-3 all d1 w/ wi decent non-con win.
4 UM 8-3 vs d1 w/ decent non-con win +d2 win
5 MSU 7-4 vs d1 win with bad non-con loss + d2 win.

I think MSU is all but eliminated regardless

But two top 25 wins and 8-4 if this plays out. how can you say regardless?

[frozennorth]

MSU definitely made it hard on themselves last weekend, but are far from eliminated. If they beat the Griz, especially if by a decent margin, they'd be a shoe in, having beaten 2 of the other 3 BSC playoff teams (other being a thrashing of NAU).
no, you would have 7 d1 wins in a field where 8 won't be enough for everyone. Also the phrase 'all but' is very key.


Nit-pick: EWU also has a FBS win
*FBS top25 win.



Committee members change, playoffs expand, etc. so it's hard to know how much to rely on past precedents, but in the past it seems as though the committee has put quite a bit of weight on head to head. The one that I always remember was a few years back when the cats were ranked well below the #1 ranked eagles but got the #4 seed over their #5 seed. The only advantage the cats had over EWU that year was the head to head ( I think I'm remembering the details right).
the difference is that UM will be 8-3 + d2 instead of 7-4 + d2


But two top 25 wins and 8-4 if this plays out. how can you say regardless?
again, 'all but eliminated' is not the same as 'eliminated.' MSU would need help to get into the field.

[tomq04]

What are the rules on MSU beating UM and having to turn around the 1st week of the playoffs and having to travel to UM to play the first round?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

What are the rules on MSU beating UM and having to turn around the 1st week of the playoffs and having to travel to UM to play the first round?

Wouldn't happen, conference mates that have played in the regular season. Now SUU could be switched with MSU and that would be OK according to what I have seen.

[robsnotes4u]

If they played in conference they wouldnt be able to play first round per the rules

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[Red & Black]

Nit-pick: EWU also has a FBS win

Assuming the Cats beat the Griz this weekend (a big if at this point) I think they're still in the discussion by virtue of their head to head wins over 2 of the 3 teams.

Committee members change, playoffs expand, etc. so it's hard to know how much to rely on past precedents, but in the past it seems as though the committee has put quite a bit of weight on head to head. The one that I always remember was a few years back when the cats were ranked well below the #1 ranked eagles but got the #4 seed over their #5 seed. The only advantage the cats had over EWU that year was the head to head ( I think I'm remembering the details right).

The head to head had the most to do with it, but we also had an FBS win (albeit Idaho), and a very narrow FBS loss (WSU).

[NoCoDanny]

I'm not sure but I can tell you who is 13th. xbawlingx

[mvemjsunpx]

You mean like last year when ASU AD Charlie Cobb, member of the selection committee, was lobbying for NDSU to play a "lower ranked" team in the second round, and was effectively overruled by NCAA Director of Football Damani Leech?

Where's your evidence for this? All I can find is that Cobb said SDSU was one of the last two at-large selections.

[mvemjsunpx]

If that's the case, in this scenario, Montana has the weakest resume of the 5...just sayin...

SUU has several suspect performances against weak teams. They beat Weber & NoCo by just 6 each, and they lost handily to UC Davis of all teams.

All 5 teams could conceivably get in; the competition doesn't appear to be that strong. SUU probably doesn't at 8-4, especially if UM beats the 'Cats. MSU is more likely than not at 8-4 (obviously out at 7-5). NAU & UM should be in regardless. EWU should get a high seed, and probably still a low seed if they somehow lose to PSU.

[gotts]

Where's your evidence for this? All I can find is that Cobb said SDSU was one of the last two at-large selections.

My point was more that someone connected with the NCAA had input to the selection/placement process, not just the committee.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

My point was more that someone connected with the NCAA had input to the selection/placement process, not just the committee.

The five seeds are set and then the NCAA has rules on how the travel will be arranged. The NCAA doesn't appear to have input on the selection process from your example that I can see but there is no seeding beyond the top 5 so at that point they certainly help with who plays who according to geographytravel for sure.

Can you point to how or where you gotts the info. to clarify the issue? It would be nice to see it and have an understanding of what you are referring to?