Playoff Predictions: 10/9/2006

[dbackjon]

Lots of football to be played, but here is my predictions as of now:

Autobids
New Hampshire (11-0)
Montana (10-1)
Illinois State (9-2)
Hampton (11-0)
Tn-Martin (10-1)
Holy Cross (7-4)
Appalachian State (10-1) *
Sam Houston State (8-3)

At-Large (In order of likelihood)
Richmond (10-1) #
UMass (9-2)
SIU (9-2) #
Youngstown St (8-3) *
Cal-Poly (8-3) *
Furman (8-3) *
Eastern Illinois (8-4)
Montana State (7-4) #

Playoff eligible, not selected:
Coastal Carolina (8-3)
Jacksonville State (7-4)
Bethune-Cookman (7-4)
Norfolk State (8-3) *
Northern Iowa (7-4)

I debated the last few spots. Fire away!




* Has non Division I win
# Has I-A win

[OL FU]

Lots of football to be played, but here is my predictions as of now:

Autobids
New Hampshire (11-0)
Montana (10-1)
Illinois State (9-2)
Hampton (11-0)
Tn-Martin (10-1)
Holy Cross (7-4)
Appalachian State (10-1)
Sam Houston State (8-3)

At-Large (In order of likelihood)
Richmond (10-1) #
UMass (9-2)
SIU (9-2)
Youngstown St (8-3) *
Cal-Poly (8-3) *
Furman (8-3) *
Eastern Illinois (8-4)
Montana State (7-4) #

Playoff eligible, not selected:
Coastal Carolina (8-3)
Jacksonville State (7-4)
Bethune-Cookman (7-4)
Norfolk State (8-3) *
Northern Iowa (7-4)

I debated the last few spots. Fire away!




* Has non Division I win
# Has I-A win

Who are you assuming beats CCU?
IF they are 8-3 you maybe correct
If they are 9-2 they are in and MSU is out.

[th0m]

I think 3 Gateway and A-10 teams sounds good, I just don't know about 2 OVC teams. EIU would have to pretty much run the table, or win the conference to get an at large. For the rest it looks pretty good.

BTW, SIU also has a I-A win, over Indiana.

[dbackjon]

Who are you assuming beats CCU?
IF they are 8-3 you maybe correct
If they are 9-2 they are in and MSU is out.

I am calling for Liberty to upset CCU.
You would be correct in that thinking - if CCU wins out, they would get an at-large bid, and Montana State is out.

[JALMOND]

Lots of football to be played, but here is my predictions as of now:

Autobids
New Hampshire (11-0)
Montana (10-1)
Illinois State (9-2)
Hampton (11-0)
Tn-Martin (10-1)
Holy Cross (7-4)
Appalachian State (10-1)
Sam Houston State (8-3)

At-Large (In order of likelihood)
Richmond (10-1) #
UMass (9-2)
SIU (9-2)
Youngstown St (8-3) *
Cal-Poly (8-3) *
Furman (8-3) *
Eastern Illinois (8-4)
Montana State (7-4) #

Playoff eligible, not selected:
Coastal Carolina (8-3)
Jacksonville State (7-4)
Bethune-Cookman (7-4)
Norfolk State (8-3) *
Northern Iowa (7-4)

I debated the last few spots. Fire away!




* Has non Division I win
# Has I-A win

Are you thinking what I think you're thinking about Portland State? A loss at Flagstaff and the Vikings aren't eligible?

Guess we're going to have to win at Autzen then...

[dbackjon]

I think 3 Gateway and A-10 teams sounds good, I just don't know about 2 OVC teams. EIU would have to pretty much run the table, or win the conference to get an at large. For the rest it looks pretty good.

BTW, SIU also has a I-A win, over Indiana.

You are right on the SIU win.

Who would you put over EIU? Under my scenario, they would have two I-A losses, plus losses to a top 5 Illinois State, and to 10-1 UT-Martin.

[blur2005]

Lots of football to be played, but here is my predictions as of now:

Autobids
New Hampshire (11-0)
Montana (10-1)
Illinois State (9-2)
Hampton (11-0)
Tn-Martin (10-1)
Holy Cross (7-4)
Appalachian State (10-1)
Sam Houston State (8-3)

At-Large (In order of likelihood)
Richmond (10-1) #
UMass (9-2)
SIU (9-2)
Youngstown St (8-3) *
Cal-Poly (8-3) *
Furman (8-3) *
Eastern Illinois (8-4)
Montana State (7-4) #

Playoff eligible, not selected:
Coastal Carolina (8-3)
Jacksonville State (7-4)
Bethune-Cookman (7-4)
Norfolk State (8-3) *
Northern Iowa (7-4)

I debated the last few spots. Fire away!




* Has non Division I win
# Has I-A win
Uh, don't forget JMU. Not sure why you didn't even mention the Dukes, considering they'll be favored in every game from here on out besides UNH and probably Richmond. If they lose both of those but win the rest, that's still 8-3, 6-2 in the A-10, which would certainly get the former national champs in the playoffs. Granted, the A-10 is never easy to predict, as both Delaware and Towson would be dangerous to this prognosis.

[dbackjon]

Are you thinking what I think you're thinking about Portland State? A loss at Flagstaff and the Vikings aren't eligible?

Guess we're going to have to win at Autzen then...

That is my thinking. Portland State is another team that could enter in the playoff picture with a win in Flagstaff. They would be then at 7-4. Would they be more deserving than Montana State?

[bodoyle]

liberty? xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[dbackjon]

Uh, don't forget JMU. Not sure why you didn't even mention the Dukes, considering they'll be favored in every game from here on out besides UNH and probably Richmond. If they lose both of those but win the rest, that's still 8-3, 6-2 in the A-10, which would certainly get the former national champs in the playoffs. Granted, the A-10 is never easy to predict, as both Delaware and Towson would be dangerous to this prognosis.

I have JMU losing to UNH and Richmond, and losing AT Towson State. If the game was at JMU, I'd favor them, but since JMU is only 3-1 right now (Division I games only), and still has two top ten teams on the schedule, plus Delaware at home, and Villanova and Towson on the road, I don't see them winning four of the last 6.

[Coastal89]

I am calling for Liberty to upset CCU.
You would be correct in that thinking - if CCU wins out, they would get an at-large bid, and Montana State is out.

Liberty has to come to Conway this year. They won't win at Brooks Stadium. It will be a good game though.

[OL FU]

liberty? xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

I bet you did that last year against Charleston Southern:smiley_wi

[dbackjon]

I bet you did that last year against Charleston Southern:smiley_wi


Beat me to the punch, FU - If I'd had predict CCU would lose to CSU last year, I'd have been laughed at as well!!

[th0m]

You are right on the SIU win.

Who would you put over EIU? Under my scenario, they would have two I-A losses, plus losses to a top 5 Illinois State, and to 10-1 UT-Martin.

Honestly, I don't know. Let's just say I'm glad I'm not in the selection committee ;)

[dbackjon]

Liberty has to come to Conway this year. They won't win at Brooks Stadium. It will be a good game though.

Like last year, CCU controls it's destiny, and an at-large bid is in reach. VMI and SSU should be wins, no sweat. You do get CSU and LU at home, which should be the toughest Big South games. I wouldn't overlook G-W on the road, either.

[dbackjon]

Honestly, I don't know. Let's just say I'm glad I'm not in the selection committee ;)

No kidding. Under my scenario, the first 5 were no-brainers. Then it got tough.

[PaladinFan]

What I see in the bracket is going to be some extremely dangerous road teams in the second round.

[JALMOND]

That is my thinking. Portland State is another team that could enter in the playoff picture with a win in Flagstaff. They would be then at 7-4. Would they be more deserving than Montana State?

Dunno. One could knock the other out. Other situations out west, with the two BSC contenders behind Montana sitting at 7-4 (possibly), would that open the door for McNeese to steal an at-large, provided they are eligible? If Cal Poly were to follow their close wins over BSC teams Weber and Sac State with a blowout loss to Montana, would that strengthen the arguement for inclusion of both Portland State and Montana State, especially if Montana State gets a win in Missoula or even a close loss?

Too much football left to be played. Whoever "wins" probably gets rewarded by going to Youngstown anyway.

[blur2005]

Alright, I'll do my own Playoff Prognosticating

Autos:

A-10: UNH, unless UMass or JMU topples the Wildcats and makes things more interesting...always a possibility with the A-10
Big Sky: Montana, can't see anyone else
Gateway: who knows? Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Youngstown State, or UNI...ISU and YSU have scheduling advantage, facing two of their three fellow contenders at home.
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: I'm going to go with Tenn-Martin because they get Eastern Illinois at home and already defeated Jacksonville State, but Jax State and Eastern Ill still have shots
Patriot League: again, who knows? I'll predict Colgate wins it
Southern: App St
Southland: so far, it looks like it might be Sam Houston State

At-Large:

(Teams with a better than average chance of getting in)

A-10: UMass, Richmond, JMU [I see the Dukes as being able to go 8-3 (6-2)]
Gateway: The three teams in the big four that don't grab the auto...I predict Southern Ill wins the Gate, so YSU, ISU, and UNI
Great West: Cal Poly
Southern: Furman

Could both the A-10 and Gateway get four teams in?

(Teams with a shot, but a little more difficult road)

A-10: Maine, Towson
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: can I add Charleston Southern here? If they beat Coastal and go 11-0...I wouldn't put them in, but who knows?
Gateway: Western Kentucky, Western Illinois
Southern: Elon?!

[OL FU]

Alright, I'll do my own Playoff Prognosticating

Autos:

A-10: UNH, unless UMass or JMU topples the Wildcats and makes things more interesting...always a possibility with the A-10
Big Sky: Montana, can't see anyone else
Gateway: who knows? Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Youngstown State, or UNI...ISU and YSU have scheduling advantage, facing two of their three fellow contenders at home.
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: I'm going to go with Tenn-Martin because they get Eastern Illinois at home and already defeated Jacksonville State, but Jax State and Eastern Ill still have shots
Patriot League: again, who knows? I'll predict Colgate wins it
Southern: App St
Southland: so far, it looks like it might be Sam Houston State

At-Large:

(Teams with a better than average chance of getting in)

A-10: UMass, Richmond, JMU [I see the Dukes as being able to go 8-3 (6-2)]
Gateway: The three teams in the big four that don't grab the auto...I predict Southern Ill wins the Gate, so YSU, ISU, and UNI
Great West: Cal Poly
Southern: Furman

Could both the A-10 and Gateway get four teams in?

(Teams with a shot, but a little more difficult road)

A-10: Maine, Towson
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: can I add Charleston Southern here? If they beat Coastal and go 11-0...I wouldn't put them in, but who knows?
Gateway: Western Kentucky, Western Illinois
Southern: Elon?!

I believe Charleston Southern plays 7 DI schools. so theoretically, they could get in.

I am with you and will go farther I don't see the committee giving them an at large. On the other hand if they end up ranked, that might change everything

[dbackjon]

I think it will be hard for the Gateway to get four teams in. The Big 4 would basically have to win every game against the rest of the conference, and then have the right split of games.

If Towson can win at either UD or Villanova, they can get to 7-4. They have a rough schedule, JMU, Richmond, UMass, Villanova, Delaware and W&M left.

Elon would have to win 5 of their last 6 to win 7 D-I games. They have to go to GSU, and Chatty, and still play Wofford and Furman, plus Citadel and NC A&T.

[JALMOND]

Jon-question about Cal Poly...

They are currently 4-1, ignoring the DII win over Fort Lewis. Home games against SD State and Savannah State would push them to 6-1. Their other three games, @ San Diego State, @ Montana, @ North Dakota State. Which game do they win?

I say a good chance at them losing all three. Without the DII win, they don't qualify.

[Walkon79]

Alright, I'll do my own Playoff Prognosticating

Autos:

A-10: UNH, unless UMass or JMU topples the Wildcats and makes things more interesting...always a possibility with the A-10
Big Sky: Montana, can't see anyone else
Gateway: who knows? Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Youngstown State, or UNI...ISU and YSU have scheduling advantage, facing two of their three fellow contenders at home.
MEAC: Hampton
OVC: I'm going to go with Tenn-Martin because they get Eastern Illinois at home and already defeated Jacksonville State, but Jax State and Eastern Ill still have shots
Patriot League: again, who knows? I'll predict Colgate wins it
Southern: App St
Southland: so far, it looks like it might be Sam Houston State

At-Large:

(Teams with a better than average chance of getting in)

A-10: UMass, Richmond, JMU [I see the Dukes as being able to go 8-3 (6-2)]
Gateway: The three teams in the big four that don't grab the auto...I predict Southern Ill wins the Gate, so YSU, ISU, and UNI
Great West: Cal Poly
Southern: Furman

Could both the A-10 and Gateway get four teams in?

(Teams with a shot, but a little more difficult road)

A-10: Maine, Towson
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: can I add Charleston Southern here? If they beat Coastal and go 11-0...I wouldn't put them in, but who knows?
Gateway: Western Kentucky, Western Illinois
Southern: Elon?!

The Big Sky almost always gets two, and I don't think 2006 is any different. Several teams still have a shot at the conference title if someone knocks off the Griz. Way too early to be making these predictions IMO.

[ThreadStopper]

Jon-question about Cal Poly...

They are currently 4-1, ignoring the DII win over Fort Lewis. Home games against SD State and Savannah State would push them to 6-1. Their other three games, @ San Diego State, @ Montana, @ North Dakota State. Which game do they win?

I say a good chance at them losing all three. Without the DII win, they don't qualify.

If Cal Poly loses to both Montana and North Dakota Sate they would not deserve a playoff spot even if elgible. With San Diego State sitting a 0-5 right now I am becoming more concerned about these other two schools. They have seen the Poly defense before, San Diego State has not.

[dbackjon]

Jon-question about Cal Poly...

They are currently 4-1, ignoring the DII win over Fort Lewis. Home games against SD State and Savannah State would push them to 6-1. Their other three games, @ San Diego State, @ Montana, @ North Dakota State. Which game do they win?

I say a good chance at them losing all three. Without the DII win, they don't qualify.

I think they have their best shot with San Diego State. Cal-Poly could easily lost that game, and finish with only 6 D-I wins. But, they also could beat Montana or NDSU on the road as well.

[KiddBrewer]

Lots of football to be played, but here is my predictions as of now:

Autobids
New Hampshire (11-0)
Montana (10-1)
Illinois State (9-2)
Hampton (11-0)
Tn-Martin (10-1)
Holy Cross (7-4)
Appalachian State (10-1)
Sam Houston State (8-3)

At-Large (In order of likelihood)
Richmond (10-1) #
UMass (9-2)
SIU (9-2) #
Youngstown St (8-3) *
Cal-Poly (8-3) *
Furman (8-3) *
Eastern Illinois (8-4)
Montana State (7-4) #

Playoff eligible, not selected:
Coastal Carolina (8-3)
Jacksonville State (7-4)
Bethune-Cookman (7-4)
Norfolk State (8-3) *
Northern Iowa (7-4)

I debated the last few spots. Fire away!




* Has non Division I win
# Has I-A win

Appalachian has a Non Division I win too, if thats worth anything in the future. good or bad.

[dbackjon]

The Big Sky almost always gets two, and I don't think 2006 is any different. Several teams still have a shot at the conference title if someone knocks off the Griz. Way too early to be making these predictions IMO.

The Big Sky usually does, but this is not a usual year. With all the I-A games that the teams are playing, it cuts the margin greatly. Imagine if NAU, instead of playing Arizona State and Utah, had opened with Texas State and Austin Peay (for example). They would be sitting 4-1, instead of 2-3, and have a better shot at an at-large. Same with Portland - if instead of three I-As on the schedule, they substituted a couple of winnable I-AA games.

[dbackjon]

Appalachian has a Non Division I win too, if thats worth anything in the future. good or bad.

True - didn't put that in, since I have them as the auto-bid.

[JALMOND]

The Big Sky usually does, but this is not a usual year. With all the I-A games that the teams are playing, it cuts the margin greatly. Imagine if NAU, instead of playing Arizona State and Utah, had opened with Texas State and Austin Peay (for example). They would be sitting 4-1, instead of 2-3, and have a better shot at an at-large. Same with Portland - if instead of three I-As on the schedule, they substituted a couple of winnable I-AA games.

PSU OOC schedule in May had us opening with New Mexico (I-A), third week of the year, we were to go to McNeese, then 10-28 we were to play Southern Oregon at home. We beat New Mexico, replaced McNeese with Cal (got blown out, but Cal has been blowing everyone out except for Tennessee), and replaced SOU with Oregon (contractual obligation, if an opening occurs with the Ducks or Beavers late in the year, we have first shot at scheduling them that week, if possible. Utah State left the Ducks one game short that week).

[GaSouthern]

MSU wont make it other than that I think the first post is pretty much dead on.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The most glaring omission from this scenario is Delaware State and, to a lesser extent, FAMU and South Carolina State. The Hornets IMO have two "losable" games on their schedule to Norfolk State and South Carolina State, but otherwise seem like a decent bet for 8-3, possibly even 9-2, with their only losses to Hampton and Northwestern State. They would have a D-II victory, however.

The winner of the SC State/FAMU game this weekend stays mathematically alive in the playoff chase. If FAMU wins, they could theoretically go 9-2 but still have Hampton and B-CC left. If SC State wins, their only hope is to run the table and beat Hampton as well and finish 8-3.

IMO, Delaware State needs to have more at-large consideration here.

[Delaware Ghostrider II]

UD will be there!!!! Though of course we'll be selling hotdogs to the N.H. fans!!!!

[dbackjon]

The most glaring omission from this scenario is Delaware State and, to a lesser extent, FAMU and South Carolina State. The Hornets IMO have two "losable" games on their schedule to Norfolk State and South Carolina State, but otherwise seem like a decent bet for 8-3, possibly even 9-2, with their only losses to Hampton and Northwestern State. They would have a D-II victory, however.

The winner of the SC State/FAMU game this weekend stays mathematically alive in the playoff chase. If FAMU wins, they could theoretically go 9-2 but still have Hampton and B-CC left. If SC State wins, their only hope is to run the table and beat Hampton as well and finish 8-3.

IMO, Delaware State needs to have more at-large consideration here.

I spent a lot of time going back and forth on the MEAC, specifically Delaware State, FAMU, BCC and Norfolk State. I don't have a real handle yet on these teams, other than the fact that Hampton is steamrolling its way through. DSU is 3-2 now, with a D-II team yet to be played. To qualify for an at-large then, they need to win 4 of the following: NC A&T (win, easy), @Morgan State (a team that is showing some life), SC State, @Norfolk State, and @ Howard (win). Counting NC A&T as wins, they'd need to win two of the other three - not an easy task. I think they will go 7-4, but not have 7 D-I wins.

FAMU could go 7-4, if they beat BCC or Norfolk.

[FlyYtown]

Gateway:
**Illinois State: 9-2 Auto-Bid [Only if they can beat SIU this weekend]
if they do not:
Youngstown State: 9-2 Auto-BID [Depends on ISU vs. SIU for me to decide]
Southern Illinois: 8-3
------------------
Northern Iowa: 7-4 will not make the playoffs unless they can finish this season off 4-1... which will be tough when they have yet to face the above 3..... If they do go 4-1.. I can see the Gateway fielding 4 teams.... but only if that occurs.

[ISUMatt]

Yea FlyTown makes a great point, this weekends SIU @ IILS matchup will give the winner a nice front row seat...Although never easy in the Gateway, ILS gets YSU at home but still has WIU and UNI on the road after winning @ WKU

[birdsflyhigh]

It amazes me how many posters are giving the EIU Panthers "credit" for their 2 I-A losses. Folks, EIU was blown off the field (52-0) by a horrible Illinois team that just lost their homecoming to lowly Indiana. EIU's other I-A loss was an absolute crush job by a pedestrian Hawaii team. That's great and all that they played 2 I-A teams, but they were manhandled in both of those games and the teams they faced are NOT even that good.

Now if were talking about playing competitive ball against some pretty decent I-A teams, then that's a whole other story. Let's look at UNI's oh-so-close loss to a pretty good Iowa State team (that gave #15 Iowa all they could handle), or Illinois State's 1 point loss to a good Kansas St. team. Those are quality losses and worth giving credit for...NOT like EIU getting a pass for being absolutely steamrolled by 2 so-so (at best) I-A teams. Then EIU will rack up some victories an a very-down OVC which would make them attractive for the playoffs? I don't get it :confused:

[ISUMatt]

It amazes me how many posters are giving the EIU Panthers "credit" for their 2 I-A losses. Folks, EIU was blown off the field (52-0) by a horrible Illinois team that just lost their homecoming to lowly Indiana. EIU's other I-A loss was an absolute crush job by a pedestrian Hawaii team. That's great and all that they played 2 I-A teams, but they were manhandled in both of those games and the teams they faced are NOT even that good.

Now if were talking about playing competitive ball against some pretty decent I-A teams, then that's a whole other story. Let's look at UNI's oh-so-close loss to a pretty good Iowa State team (that gave #15 Iowa all they could handle), or Illinois State's 1 point loss to a good Kansas St. team. Those are quality losses and worth giving credit for...NOT like EIU getting a pass for being absolutely steamrolled by 2 so-so (at best) I-A teams. Then EIU will rack up some victories an a very-down OVC which would make them attractive for the playoffs? I don't get it :confused:

EIU's 3 losses:
-@ Illinois 42-17
-@ Illinois St 44-30
-@ Hawaii 44-9

2 I-A's and the #4 I-AA team are their losses. Im sure its not easy to travel 4000+ miles to Hawaii and win...also Illinois beat Michigan St on the road who almost beat Notre Dame!!!

[dbackjon]

It amazes me how many posters are giving the EIU Panthers "credit" for their 2 I-A losses. Folks, EIU was blown off the field (52-0) by a horrible Illinois team that just lost their homecoming to lowly Indiana. EIU's other I-A loss was an absolute crush job by a pedestrian Hawaii team. That's great and all that they played 2 I-A teams, but they were manhandled in both of those games and the teams they faced are NOT even that good.

Now if were talking about playing competitive ball against some pretty decent I-A teams, then that's a whole other story. Let's look at UNI's oh-so-close loss to a pretty good Iowa State team (that gave #15 Iowa all they could handle), or Illinois State's 1 point loss to a good Kansas St. team. Those are quality losses and worth giving credit for...NOT like EIU getting a pass for being absolutely steamrolled by 2 so-so (at best) I-A teams. Then EIU will rack up some victories an a very-down OVC which would make them attractive for the playoffs? I don't get it :confused:

Not so much credit for the losses, as it is a "pass". Sure, EIU could have played Butler instead of Illinois and skipped Hawaii, and be 9-2 with losses only to IlSt and UT-Martin. That is the only point.

[blur2005]

It amazes me how many posters are giving the EIU Panthers "credit" for their 2 I-A losses. Folks, EIU was blown off the field (52-0) by a horrible Illinois team that just lost their homecoming to lowly Indiana. EIU's other I-A loss was an absolute crush job by a pedestrian Hawaii team. That's great and all that they played 2 I-A teams, but they were manhandled in both of those games and the teams they faced are NOT even that good.

Now if were talking about playing competitive ball against some pretty decent I-A teams, then that's a whole other story. Let's look at UNI's oh-so-close loss to a pretty good Iowa State team (that gave #15 Iowa all they could handle), or Illinois State's 1 point loss to a good Kansas St. team. Those are quality losses and worth giving credit for...NOT like EIU getting a pass for being absolutely steamrolled by 2 so-so (at best) I-A teams. Then EIU will rack up some victories an a very-down OVC which would make them attractive for the playoffs? I don't get it :confused:
I completely agree.

[birdsflyhigh]

Matt, hope you don't think EIU has a quality loss to Illinois because the Illini beat a lousy Michigan St. team. Illinois is bad!!! And it was a 44-7 loss to Hawaii. That DOES qualify as a being blown off the field doesn't it?

Like I mention EIU will rack up some wins in a down OVC. Yes, they gave ISU a good game, but that is a rivalry game, and those are USUALLY close.
I would take a 7-4 UNI team (playing in the ultra-competitive Gateway) eight days a week over an 8-4 EIU team that rolled threw the OVC.

Don't have anything against EIU, and in fact IMO they have a fantastic program. If they would have showed something (anything) against a bad Illlinois team or a middle of the road Hawaii team, then YES I would say EIU is a team to be reckoned with, but the Panthers layed down in BOTH those games. : smh :

[McNeese75]

UD will be there!!!! Though of course we'll be selling hotdogs to the N.H. fans!!!!


xlolx We will bring the mustard

[TexasTerror]

Nice to see Sam Houston State in the mix. Hopefully, we'll get a few wins at home and we'll really be talking.

Lucky thing for SHSU is all the tough ones are at home (TxSt, McN and Nicholls). Beat a would-be tough one at NWST. SHSU has had SELA and SFA's number over the years. Just need to take care of business. You figure we'll lose one before now and the end of the season at the very least. No one runs the table in the SLC, hardly...

[dbackjon]

Nice to see Sam Houston State in the mix. Hopefully, we'll get a few wins at home and we'll really be talking.

Lucky thing for SHSU is all the tough ones are at home (TxSt, McN and Nicholls). Beat a would-be tough one at NWST. SHSU has had SELA and SFA's number over the years. Just need to take care of business. You figure we'll lose one before now and the end of the season at the very least. No one runs the table in the SLC, hardly...

The fact that you have McNeese and Nicholls at home was a big factor in my picking you to win the SLC.

[Chucktown]

For all of you who keep doubting Eastern Illinois...

@ Illinois EIU was down 28 14 at halftime... Drove all the way down to their 3. on 1st down, threw a fade and it got picked. Would've been 21-28. I would not consider that laying down. At hawaii, say what you will, but almost every single starter on offense and defense was out at halftime. EIU rushed for about 250 against a Hawaii team that was letting up about 70 yards per game, and had recently been beat by boise state by 7.
@Illinois state- Lost by 14, but should've been 7 because Denver Johnson decided to go for the endzone with 30 seconds left. This was another team who had been letting up only 50 yards rushing per game, and 30 points were put up on them.

So by no means were any of these beat-downs. (except hawaii game, and EIU was more concerned with teams health in that game than a win. A win at hawaii would'nt have done much-)

So everyone thinks that Tenn-Martin will run through OVC, i beg to differ. EIU has one of the best running attacks in the country, and recently discovered they have one of the top receivers in 1-AA.
So I am excited to see how things turn out-

[DB_Atlantic10]

The most glaring omission from this scenario is Delaware State and, to a lesser extent, FAMU and South Carolina State. The Hornets IMO have two "losable" games on their schedule to Norfolk State and South Carolina State, but otherwise seem like a decent bet for 8-3, possibly even 9-2, with their only losses to Hampton and Northwestern State. They would have a D-II victory, however.

The winner of the SC State/FAMU game this weekend stays mathematically alive in the playoff chase. If FAMU wins, they could theoretically go 9-2 but still have Hampton and B-CC left. If SC State wins, their only hope is to run the table and beat Hampton as well and finish 8-3.

IMO, Delaware State needs to have more at-large consideration here.

I don't know...the Committee went out on a limb last year and gave Hampton a seed to only see them get embarassed by a 8-3 Richmond...so Hampton holds no weight...you must win the MEAC auto-bid to get in this year.

[Proud Griz Man]

If Cal Poly loses to both Montana and North Dakota Sate they would not deserve a playoff spot even if elgible. With San Diego State sitting a 0-5 right now I am becoming more concerned about these other two schools. They have seen the Poly defense before, San Diego State has not.

I agree TStopper. I could see Cal Poly beating San Diego State, but you guys also play NDSU and MT tough.:nod:

[siugrad99]

EIU won't be one of the final 16 sorry to inform you. EIU would be 5 place at best in the Gateway.

[slostang]

If Cal Poly loses to both Montana and North Dakota Sate they would not deserve a playoff spot even if elgible. With San Diego State sitting a 0-5 right now I am becoming more concerned about these other two schools. They have seen the Poly defense before, San Diego State has not.
It depends on how close the loses are and if they beat San Diego State. If Poly finishes 8-3 with a win over a I-A school and has one close loss to aother I-A school, two close loses to two top ten I-AA teams on the road would not mean that Cal Poly should be out of the playoffs. I think Cal Poly will finish at 9-2, but only time will tell.

[PantherRob82]

I think it's still pretty early. I think UNI is still improving and has yet to play their best football. I think the Gateway is still up for grabs.

Considering we have won the last 5 against YSU, always play SIU tough and have Il St at home, I think we still have a shot.

[JALMOND]

It depends on how close the loses are and if they beat San Diego State. If Poly finishes 8-3 with a win over a I-A school and has one close loss to aother I-A school, two close loses to two top ten I-AA teams on the road would not mean that Cal Poly should be out of the playoffs. I think Cal Poly will finish at 9-2, but only time will tell.

Is the San Diego State game the easiest one of the bunch? That right there is saying a lot. Simply, Cal Poly needs one win out of the three, otherwise they don't qualify (not enough DI wins). Where they get it (if they do) remains to be seen.

[*****]

... Cal Poly needs one win out of the three, otherwise they don't qualify (not enough DI wins)...That made me look at the CP sched...

Sat 9/2/2006 Fort Lewis at Cal Poly, Cal Poly 44-0
*Sat 9/9/2006 Cal Poly at Weber State, Cal Poly 17-0
*Sat 9/16/2006 Cal Poly at Sacramento St, Cal Poly 17-10
*Sat 9/23/2006 Cal Poly at San Jose St, San Jose St 17-7
*Sat 9/30/2006 Southern Utah at Cal Poly, Cal Poly 18-14
*Sat 10/7/2006 UC Davis at Cal Poly, Cal Poly 23-17
-Sat 10/21/2006 South Dakota St at Cal Poly 7:00 PM
-Sat 10/28/2006 Cal Poly at San Diego St 8:00 PM
-Sat 11/4/2006 Cal Poly at Montana 4:05 PM
-Sat 11/11/2006 Cal Poly at North Dakota St 2:00 PM
-Sat 11/18/2006 Savannah State at Cal Poly 4:00 PM

They are 5-1 now (*D-I). They have five games left, all D-I (- should count provisionals). They need three wins to get the requisite seven D-I wins for playoff consideration. But four losses will sink them. So if they go 2-3 they are done for. If they go 3-2 IMHO they are in (8-3 overall).

[JALMOND]

That made me look at the CP sched...

Sat 9/2/2006 Fort Lewis at Cal Poly, Cal Poly 44-0
*Sat 9/9/2006 Cal Poly at Weber State, Cal Poly 17-0
*Sat 9/16/2006 Cal Poly at Sacramento St, Cal Poly 17-10
*Sat 9/23/2006 Cal Poly at San Jose St, San Jose St 17-7
*Sat 9/30/2006 Southern Utah at Cal Poly, Cal Poly 18-14
*Sat 10/7/2006 UC Davis at Cal Poly, Cal Poly 23-17
-Sat 10/21/2006 South Dakota St at Cal Poly 7:00 PM
-Sat 10/28/2006 Cal Poly at San Diego St 8:00 PM
-Sat 11/4/2006 Cal Poly at Montana 4:05 PM
-Sat 11/11/2006 Cal Poly at North Dakota St 2:00 PM
-Sat 11/18/2006 Savannah State at Cal Poly 4:00 PM

They are 5-1 now (*D-I). They have five games left, all D-I (- should count provisionals). They need three wins to get the requisite seven D-I wins for playoff consideration. But four losses will sink them. So if they go 2-3 they are done for. If they go 3-2 IMHO they are in (8-3 overall).

3-2 which would mean they would need a win in either San Diego, Missoula or Fargo. One of those three. I'm giving them wins against South Dakota State and Savannah. It's the third win that will be the toughest (if they get it). They have the win against Davis, so if they win any of their road games, they're in.

I have a feeling that the Mustangs will need to score more than 20 points to win one of their road games. Can they do it?

[Mr. C]

Folks, the committee isn't going to reward four-loss teams with at-large playoff bids. That is something pretty well engrained in the selection process, so throw those teams out and figure out who will be left with three losses, or less and the required seven D-I wins.

[AZGrizFan]

3-2 which would mean they would need a win in either San Diego, Missoula or Fargo. One of those three. I'm giving them wins against South Dakota State and Savannah. It's the third win that will be the toughest (if they get it). They have the win against Davis, so if they win any of their road games, they're in.

I have a feeling that the Mustangs will need to score more than 20 points to win one of their road games. Can they do it?

CP handles San Diego. Book it. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

And in all likelihood, SDSU as well. :nod: :nod: :nod:


But there's a payback comin' in Missoula this year Cal Poly!!!!! :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

[PantherRob82]

CP looks strong so far. I would be suprised to see them out at the end of November.

[AZGrizFan]

CP handles San Diego. Book it. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

And in all likelihood, SDSU as well. :nod: :nod: :nod:


But there's a payback comin' in Missoula this year Cal Poly!!!!! :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx

I realized it's San Diego STATE, not USD.

Also, it's NDSU, not SDSU. I still think they get the win against San Diego State (0-5). Hell, CP played San Jose State much tougher than SD State did. There. I feel better. :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

[*****]

...I have a feeling that the Mustangs will need to score more than 20 points to win one of their road games. Can they do it?They scored more than 20 last week against UC Davis... soooo... I agree with you.

[*****]

I guess I have to get my butt to Fargo on 11/11.

[Tribe4SF]

I guess I have to get my butt to Fargo on 11/11.

When you do, tell us how the fricassee is!:D

[ngineer]

Way, way too early for this stuff. Nothing but speculation at this point with most conference play not underway. By end of month we can do this with some basis in fact.

[Chi Panther]

For all of you who keep doubting Eastern Illinois...

@ Illinois EIU was down 28 14 at halftime... Drove all the way down to their 3. on 1st down, threw a fade and it got picked. Would've been 21-28. I would not consider that laying down. At hawaii, say what you will, but almost every single starter on offense and defense was out at halftime. EIU rushed for about 250 against a Hawaii team that was letting up about 70 yards per game, and had recently been beat by boise state by 7.
@Illinois state- Lost by 14, but should've been 7 because Denver Johnson decided to go for the endzone with 30 seconds left. This was another team who had been letting up only 50 yards rushing per game, and 30 points were put up on them.

So by no means were any of these beat-downs. (except hawaii game, and EIU was more concerned with teams health in that game than a win. A win at hawaii would'nt have done much-)

So everyone thinks that Tenn-Martin will run through OVC, i beg to differ. EIU has one of the best running attacks in the country, and recently discovered they have one of the top receivers in 1-AA.
So I am excited to see how things turn out-

Is your All-American LB from Iowa still hurt?????

[Chucktown]

out for season

[Pard4Life]

It's pathetic that Holy Cross even be mentioned in the same sentence as auto-bid. But the even more pathetic fact is that it may turn out to be true. They are playing the best ball now in the PL. But, nobody has yet to play any real games... sorry DFW and LB.. but G'town just doesn't cut it as a challenging PL game for the the league just yet.

And what's the deal with Portland St.? Basically, they lose one more Big Sky game and they are done? I remember looking at their schedule and I think they hae Oregon yet to play... It looks like 7-4 to finish... a shame considering they started so well. I can see losing to Montana, but Montana St. should have been a win if they were gunning for the playoffs.

[dbackjon]

Way, way too early for this stuff. Nothing but speculation at this point with most conference play not underway. By end of month we can do this with some basis in fact.


Party-pooper :p

[Pard4Life]

Party-pooper :p

He is right though... for example.. YSU still has to play SIU, Illinois St., and UNI.

[slostang]

CP handles San Diego. Book it. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

And in all likelihood, SDSU as well. :nod: :nod: :nod:


But there's a payback comin' in Missoula this year Cal Poly!!!!! :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:
I'll be there and I am looking forward to it. Red's here I come.

You are right about the payback comin', but it is Cal Poly who is going to collect for last years regular season loss in Missoula!!!!!:smiley_wi

[bodoyle]

I bet you did that last year against Charleston Southern:smiley_wi

No Drafts always does well against us, and it is a huge in-state rivalry game.

[McNeeserocket]

Lots of football to be played, but here is my predictions as of now:

Autobids
New Hampshire (11-0)
Montana (10-1)
Illinois State (9-2)
Hampton (11-0)
Tn-Martin (10-1)
Holy Cross (7-4)
Appalachian State (10-1) *
Sam Houston State (8-3)

At-Large (In order of likelihood)
Richmond (10-1) #
UMass (9-2)
SIU (9-2) #
Youngstown St (8-3) *
Cal-Poly (8-3) *
Furman (8-3) *
Eastern Illinois (8-4)
Montana State (7-4) #

Playoff eligible, not selected:
Coastal Carolina (8-3)
Jacksonville State (7-4)
Bethune-Cookman (7-4)
Norfolk State (8-3) *
Northern Iowa (7-4)

I debated the last few spots. Fire away!
* Has non Division I win
# Has I-A win

As far as the Southland Auto bid is concerned it is way too early to pick a front runner! Conference play just started this last weekend and McNeese is yet to play a conference game yet!

However, Sam Houston has looked pretty good, at least as far as their overall record. The problem is that the Southland schools have played way too many I-A teams and the win-loss records are skewed because of the losses to I-A teams. I believe Texas State is the only team to have scheduled only one I-A team. Northwestern and Southeastern scheduled three I-A teams. McNeese, Sam Houston, Nicholls and SFA all scheduled two I-A games.

Right now 4 teams in the Southland are undefeated in conference play (including McNeese who has their first conference game against Texas State in Lake Charles this weekend). After Saturday night we may or may not have a better idea who may be a front runner of the Southland. If McNeese, Sam Houston, SFA and Nicholls all lose this Saturday then every Southland team will have at least one Conference loss which may result in a 7 way tie in conference standings.

That being said, I believe that Sam Houston may very well survive conference play, but then again so could Nicholls, McNeese and maybe even SFA.

[TexasTerror]

If McNeese, Sam Houston, SFA and Nicholls all lose this Saturday then every Southland team will have at least one Conference loss which may result in a 7 way tie in conference standings.

SFA has a bye. McNeese should win and SHSU plays Nicholls. A SHSU or Nichoolls win and they're the only team at 2-0. McN and SFA could be 1-0...

[dbackjon]

Big key for SHSU this year is that they host McNeese and Nicholls.

[TexasTerror]

Big key for SHSU this year is that they host McNeese and Nicholls.

Agreed...

Kats have taken care of SFA and SELA, bad year or not the last few years of both of those series. In fact, SHSU has not lost to SELA since they brought back football in 2003 (2-0) and since 2000, throw out the 53 yard lucky kick by SFA, the Kats are 5-0 against the Jacks including a 3-0 record in Nacogdoches...

[McNeese75]

Big key for SHSU this year is that they host McNeese and Nicholls.

:rolleyes: If playing in Huntsville is going to be a BIG KEY this year it will be the first time it ever has been against McNeese.

[MarkCCU]

CCU will be 9-2...and IF it gets to 8-3, #3 will probably go to Charleston Southern, but i seriously doubt it

[Cap'n Cat]

SMH @ the people leaving UNI out.

:eyebrow: :eyebrow:

[dbackjon]

SMH @ the people leaving UNI out.

:eyebrow: :eyebrow:

SMH?

[Cap'n Cat]

SMH?


Shaking my head.

The GFC season has just begun!

:eyebrow: :eyebrow:

[crunifan]

I actually like that people are leaving us out. They did it last year too and look what happened. xlolx

[dbackjon]

Shaking my head.

The GFC season has just begun!

:eyebrow: :eyebrow:

Yes it has - tough road for the Cats with having to travel to Youngstown and Carbondale.

[rokamortis]

Like last year, CCU controls it's destiny, and an at-large bid is in reach. VMI and SSU should be wins, no sweat. You do get CSU and LU at home, which should be the toughest Big South games. I wouldn't overlook G-W on the road, either.

Hit the nail on the head. Every team will be gunning for us so we better be ready. Hopefully we learned our lesson from last year.

[Cap'n Cat]

Yes it has - tough road for the Cats with having to travel to Youngstown and Carbondale.

Not insurmountable.


BTW, agree with crunifan.

[Torero Tradition]

Eastern Illinois @ New Hampshire
UMass @ Illinois State
San Diego @ Montana
Cal Poly @ Sam Houston State

Richmond@ Tn-Martin
Holy Cross @ Appalachian State
Hampton @ Furman
SIU @ Youngstown St

[dbackjon]

Eastern Illinois @ New Hampshire
UMass @ Illinois State
San Diego @ Montana
Cal Poly @ Sam Houston State

Richmond@ Tn-Martin
Holy Cross @ Appalachian State
Hampton @ Furman
SIU @ Youngstown St


Please, please answer how you are going to play UC-Davis and Montana at the same time?

[AppGuy04]

Please, please answer how you are going to play UC-Davis and Montana at the same time?

Don't you know, they are good enough to play split squad and still win:rolleyes:

[Torero Tradition]

Please, please answer how you are going to play UC-Davis and Montana at the same time?

Actually split squad games in college are not allowed. That is saved for MLB pre-season baseball and other basketball games.

Simple, USD would re-negotiate to play UC-DAVIS in another year, like fall of '07.

[UNHWildCats]

Actually split squad games in college are not allowed. That is saved for MLB pre-season baseball and other basketball games.

Simple, USD would re-negotiate to play UC-DAVIS in another year, like fall of '07.

I've come to the conclusion that you need to send me a bag of the stuff ya'll smoking out there and a case of what your drinking.

[Torero Tradition]

How bout I just send Harbaugh and the boys and then you can tell me what you think of USD. :smiley_wi

[dbackjon]

How bout I just send Harbaugh and the boys and then you can tell me what you think of USD. :smiley_wi

Sure.....have them play a good team on the way. Or better yet, have them suit up against UNH, and watch them lose by 50 (and see the best QB in I-AA play in person for once).

[UNHWildCats]

Sure.....have them play a good team on the way. Or better yet, have them suit up against UNH, and watch them lose by 50 (and see the best QB in I-AA play in person for once).

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Tailbone]

Eastern Illinois @ New Hampshire
UMass @ Illinois State
San Diego @ Montana
Cal Poly @ Sam Houston State

Richmond@ Tn-Martin
Holy Cross @ Appalachian State
Hampton @ Furman
SIU @ Youngstown St

WRONG!

The comittee doesn't pair conference mates in the first round.

[poly51]

Eastern Illinois @ New Hampshire
UMass @ Illinois State
San Diego @ Montana
Cal Poly @ Sam Houston State

Richmond@ Tn-Martin
Holy Cross @ Appalachian State
Hampton @ Furman
SIU @ Youngstown St

And who do you think you will be playing in the 2nd round???:rolleyes:

[PantherRob82]

WRONG!

The comittee doesn't pair conference mates in the first round.

Like the average San Diego fan even knows the conference line-ups. They just sprouted up with these wins and playoff talk. Maybe we should change the board to AGSD.:cool:

[JaxSinfonian]

Folks, EIU was blown off the field (52-0) by a horrible Illinois team


Then EIU will rack up some victories an a very-down OVC which would make them attractive for the playoffs?

I know few people here let facts get in the way of a little OVC-bashing, but I've got to call you on these two statements. First, the EIU-Illinois score was 42-17. But hey, if you don't know the real score, just make one up, right?

As for the second statement, you made it in two seperate posts in this thread, so I'll presume it's a theory you really like and have thought a lot about. Care to back it up? Down from what? The OVC's OOC record so far this year is 11-16, with three games left to be played. However it ends, that will be UP from the 2005 record of 7-21, not down. It's also about the same number of wins as in 2004 and 2003. You could say it's down a little from 2002's 15-19 record, I suppose. Still looking for that "very down" point of reference, though. The only thing down in the OVC so far this year is Eastern Kentucky's record as compared to the Colonels' expectations.


EIU won't be one of the final 16 sorry to inform you. EIU would be 5 place at best in the Gateway.

Well darn, siugrad, you should have told us before now that you have psychic powers like that. You know how they'll end up in the OVC, and how they'd do in another league they're not even a member of? No need to play the games if you can make calls like that. Now we can dispense with those annoying first three rounds of the playoffs, and you can just tell us who should play in the title game. Oh, wait ... that's how I-A does it.

All this "prediculating" is cute, but there's plenty of football left to be played, and really no telling who will win the OVC title or finish within reach of an autobid. Jax State has yet to play two of its three non-conference games and could finish 8-3 or 9-2. EIU could beat UT-Martin later this month, win the OVC title and leave Martin 9-2 with an at-large argument. Any of the other teams in the league could have a monster day and topple any of those three squads (Tech vs. EKU, anyone?). I am certainly not jotting EKU down in everybody else's win column just yet, and they've got EIU at home this weekend and don't play Martin until Nov. 11.

Meanwhile, keep it up everyone. This is entertaining, to say the least.

[ronpayne]

Eastern Illinois @ New Hampshire
UMass @ Illinois State
San Diego @ Montana
Cal Poly @ Sam Houston State

Richmond@ Tn-Martin
Holy Cross @ Appalachian State
Hampton @ Furman
SIU @ Youngstown St

I think Holy Cross at AppState would be a fantastic first round game- I think we'd look like we did at the VERY difficult UTC game ASU just played this week - 49 nothing in 3 quarters.... I like that matchup! (I hope I'm not under-estimating Holy Cross, but they just don't seem like a team that would give ASU much trouble, especially at the "Rock".)

But, its only October 10th, and there is a LOT of football to be played. Nonetheless, predicting is fun. Maybe by that time I'll remember I posted here and see if it came true!

[Dane96]

Actually split squad games in college are not allowed. That is saved for MLB pre-season baseball and other basketball games.

Simple, USD would re-negotiate to play UC-DAVIS in another year, like fall of '07.



Ms. PATTY V., your commish, publically stated she would be disappointed and shocked if the NEC withdrew from the PFL champ game. She has been very, very vocal about it.

THE GC will keep you guys out (and your suspect schedule). You cant play both the playoffs and GC If Patty allowed USD to bail on the game...her entire career credibility will be shot.

She WONT allow that to happen.