Playoffs...who still has a chance

[chattanoogamocs]

Since the Mocs are currently right on the big fat bubble, I put together this for Mocfans.com.

Let me know if I missed anything or if there are any mistakes. Figured the research might be of some use to AGS members.



Big Sky
Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-0 (vs Portland St 6-5, 3-4) Beat #25 Oregon State *1 Non DI win
Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1 (at Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2)
Montana 9-2, 5-2 (at Montana State 7-4, 5-2) *1 Non DI win
Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2 (Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1) Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win
Montana State 7-4, 5-2 (Montana 9-2, 5-2) *1 Non DI win

Big South
Coastal Carolina 10-1, 4-1 (at South Carolina)
Charleston Southern 10-2, 3-1 (Liberty 7-4, 3-1) *Beat CCU *2 Non DI wins

CAA
Maine 10-1, 7-0 (at New Hampshire 6-4, 5-2) Beat Massachusetts
Towson 9-2, 5-2 (at James Madison 6-5, 3-4) Beat Connecticut
New Hampshire 6-4, 5-2 (Maine 10-1, 7-0)
Delaware 7-4, 4-3 (vs Villanova 5-5, 4-3)
William and Mary 7-4, 4-3 (at Richmond 5-6, 3-4)

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman 9-2, 6-1 (vs Florida A&M 3-8, 2-5) *Beat SC State *1 Non DI win
South Carolina State 8-3, 6-1 (at Norfolk State 3-8, 3-4) *1 Non DI win

Missouri Valley
North Dakota State 10-0, 7-0 (South Dakota 4-7, 3-4) Beat Kansas State *1 Non DI win
Youngstown State 8-3, 5-2 (South Dakota State 7-4, 4-3)
South Dakota State 7-4, 4-3 (at Youngstown State 8-3, 5-2)
Northern Iowa 6-5, 2-5 (Western Illinois 4-7, 2-5) Beat Iowa State

NEC
Sacred Heart 10-2, 4-2 *2 Non DI wins

OVC
Eastern Illinois 10-1, 7-0 (at UT Martin 7-4, 5-2) Beat San Diego State
Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
UT Martin 7-4, 5-2 (Eastern Illinois 10-1, 7-0)
Jacksonville State 8-3, 4-3 (SE Missouri St 3-8, 2-5) Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI
Eastern Kentucky 6-5, 4-3 (at Murray State 5-6, 3-4)

Patriot League
Fordham 10-1, 0-0 (at Colgate 4-7, 3-2) Games do not count in league standings
Lehigh 8-2, 3-1 (Lafayette 4-6, 3-1)
Lafayette 4-6, 3-1 (at Lehigh 8-2, 3-1)

Pioneer League
Butler 9-3, 7-1 or Marist 8-3, 7-1 *League will announce which auto qualifier this week

Southern
Chattanooga 8-3, 6-2 (at Alabama 10-0, 7-0) Beat Georgia State 42-14
Samford 7-4, 5-2 (Elon 2-9, 1-6) Beat Georgia State 31-21
Furman 6-5, 5-2 (Wofford 5-5, 4-3)

Southland
Southeastern Louisiana 9-2, 6-0 (Nicholls State 4-7, 1-5)
McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
Sam Houston State 8-3, 4-2 (at Central Arkansas 6-5, 3-3)

[rokamortis]

Liberty's beat writer thinks they have a shot with a CSU win this week. While I want Liberty to win so Coastal will get the autobid, I can't see how a 6 DI win Liberty is seriously considered.

[chattanoogamocs]

Liberty's beat writer thinks they have a shot with a CSU win this week. While I want Liberty to win so Coastal will get the autobid, I can't see how a 6 DI win Liberty is seriously considered.

Good catch...I was starting to get tired by the time I got to double checking autobids (which is why I posted on here so people could check my work)...so Liberty can't win the autobid with a win against CSU, correct? If so, I completely agree, I don't see how a 6 DI win team can get in.

And I agree with what others have said in that if Liberty does beat CSU, there is a good chance it will knock them out of the playoffs too.

[chattanoogamocs]

Ok, I am officially scratching Liberty off because if they beat CSU, they still lose head to head with CCU for autobid.

[chattanoogamocs]

Anyone get a definitive answer on whether or not ACU and UIW are counting as DI? I looked around better never saw a concrete yes or no.

[chattownmocs]

If you are right, I think Chattanooga is the 23rd team in even if there are no upsets. this week.

[Samalum'10]

Everything I've seen points towards No

[chattownmocs]

Sam Houston will make the playoffs, there is no rule for division 1 wins.

[chattanoogamocs]

Yeah, there are about 8-10 teams on this list that can make a good argument for inclusion if they win...or could be out completely if they lose.

33 teams for 24 spots.

[Hellgate60]

Montana state has one non-Div I win

[dudeitsaid]

Sam Houston will make the playoffs, there is no rule for division 1 wins.

If they lose on Saturday, they will be on a two game losing streak, and Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word being two of their eight wins. If it is true those won't be viewed as D1 wins, I don't see them getting in personally, rule or no rule. I have a feeling they will win next week and remove the speculation from the equation.

[Samalum'10]

If they lose on Saturday, they will be on a two game losing streak, and Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word being two of their eight wins. If it is true those won't be viewed as D1 wins, I don't see them getting in personally, rule or no rule. I have a feeling they will win next week and remove the speculation from the equation.
Looks like our starting QB is out (clavicle) and timothy flanders still looks banged up. We'll need Collins to do more than just show up....

[chattanoogamocs]

Ironically (since the Mocs played them), I left out...

UT Martin 7-4, 5-2 (Eastern Illinois 10-1, 7-0)

34 teams hunting for 24 spots...and since 6 are already locked, 28 playing for 18.

[eaglewraith]

Sam Houston will make the playoffs, there is no rule for division 1 wins.

(Ref Bylaws 31.01.2, 31.01.3, and 31.3 from the NCAA manual)

Not a hard set rule but:

The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of
schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of
not being selected;


Note the above is from the 2010 Championship Handbook which is the last one that was publicly available. The rules in this regard have not changed however. Until the SRS is implemented fully starting next year, the committee is still operating under these rules, although the SRS MAY be consulted this year with it in a Beta run. I think there is some discussion about the number not necessarily being 7 starting next year, and that 6 may be enough to qualify.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's my amateur opinion.

Locks: (8) NDSU (10-0), EIU (10-1), EWU (9-2), Maine (10-1), SELA (9-2), Towson (9-2), McNeese St (9-2), CCU (10-1)

There's 5, possibly 6, autobids in that group of 8 leaving 5-6 more autobids. Assuming FAMU doesn't upset B-CU they are as follows.

Autos: (4) Lehigh/Lafayette (Patriot), Sacred Heart (NEC), Marist/Butler (Pioneer), Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)

After that there's still the SOCON and the Big South autobid that could be taken from teams on the bubble. I have the following teams as those that should be in no matter what happens this next week but I don't feel confident enough to call them locks.

Should be in: (4) NAU (8-2), SHSU (8-3), Fordham (10-1), Montana (9-2)

So take away the autobids, the locks, and the "should be ins" and that's 17-18 spots accounted for leaving 6-7 spots for the following 14 bubble teams. Keep in mind the bubble could weaken if Samford or Chatty pick up the SOCON autobid or if CSU picks up the Big South autobid.

Bubble: (14) SUU (8-3), Montana State (7-4), CSU (10-2), UNH (6-4), Delaware (7-4), William & Mary (7-4), SCSU (8-3), YSU (8-3), SDSU (7-4), TSU (9-3), UTM (7-4), Jacksonville St (8-3), Chattanooga (8-3), Samford (7-4).

These are the teams that I think control their own destiny: Charleston Southern (wins the Big South autobid with a win against Liberty), SUU (in with a win against NAU), Montana St (in with a win against Montana), UNH (in with a win against Maine), YSU (in with a win against SDSU), SDSU (in with a win against YSU), UTM (in with a win against EIU).

So if all 6 of those 7 teams win (someone between YSU and SDSU has to lose) there's 1 spot left outside of the SOCON auto and I think it goes to TSU. Everyone else needs to hope for those teams to lose IMO. Hopefully that didn't thoroughly confuse those that stuck with me through the whole post.

[Herder]

Why is UNI at 6-5 and looking up at 6-5 SUI listed as alive for the playoffs, but SIU not listed?

[Professor Chaos]

If they lose on Saturday, they will be on a two game losing streak, and Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word being two of their eight wins. If it is true those won't be viewed as D1 wins, I don't see them getting in personally, rule or no rule. I have a feeling they will win next week and remove the speculation from the equation.
It's my understanding that HBU counts as a D1 win because they are a D1 startup, not a D2 team in the first year of a D1 transition like UIW is.


Why is UNI at 6-5 and looking up at 6-5 SUI listed as alive for the playoffs, but SIU not listed?
Because wins over Iowa St, McNeese St, and Youngstown St >>> wins over UNI, SDSU, and Missouri St.

[chattanoogamocs]

Why is UNI at 6-5 and looking up at 6-5 SUI listed as alive for the playoffs, but SIU not listed?

UNI has played an all DI schedule, so they can get to 7 DI wins.

One of SIU's wins was against Charleston(WV), so the most they can hope to get to is 6 DI wins (which they should get at Indiana State)

At even at 7-5 the odds for UNI are long. If they did get in, it would probably be because they beat Iowa State. But from looking at the list, I am not sure any 7 win teams will get in.

Of course, this is not a definitive list...but by most on here, it is generally accepted that a team needs to have a minimum of 7 DI wins to be seriously considered by the committee...especially in a 12 game year.

It should be noted, this is all just my opinion.

[NHwildEcat]

I am just pleased that UNH has a chance still to make the tournament. It was an up and down start to the season but things have looked pretty good as of late. It is hard to win in Durham, hopefully Maine over looks and UNH continues their home dominance.

At the same time, playing 2 QB's all the time is bull **** and quite dumb. Pick one...either one, doesn't matter at this point.

[TexasTerror]

Anyone get a definitive answer on whether or not ACU and UIW are counting as DI? I looked around better never saw a concrete yes or no.

You can rest assured that ABILENE CHRISTIAN, INCARNATE WORD and HOUSTON BAPTIST do not count as NCAA Division I wins this year. Houston Baptist is non-classified while remaining two are transitional. There's specific reasoning for why the Southland has scheduled ACU + UIW across all sports the way they have. HBU is Division I in all other sports.


It's my understanding that HBU counts as a D1 win because they are a D1 startup, not a D2 team in the first year of a D1 transition like UIW is.

You are INCORRECT.

HBU is playing a non-classified schedule this year. This year does not count towards player eligibility - just towards the five-year clock. Does not count towards APR either. South Alabama is only other school in recent memory who has done something like this.

I still cannot believe how often this subject comes up and how often people are wrong.

[Tribe4SF]

These are the teams that I think control their own destiny: Charleston Southern (wins the Big South autobid with a win against Liberty), SUU (in with a win against NAU), Montana St (in with a win against Montana), UNH (in with a win against Maine), YSU (in with a win against SDSU), SDSU (in with a win against YSU), UTM (in with a win against EIU).

So if all 6 of those 7 teams win (someone between YSU and SDSU has to lose) there's 1 spot left outside of the SOCON auto and I think it goes to TSU. Everyone else needs to hope for those teams to lose IMO. Hopefully that didn't thoroughly confuse those that stuck with me through the whole post.

If W&M beats Richmond they will be 8-4 with wins over UNH (17-0), and Delaware (24-10) on their resume. Would be hard to select either over the Tribe. Especially UNH with only seven wins.

[Professor Chaos]

If W&M beats Richmond they will be 8-4 with wins over UNH (17-0), and Delaware (24-10) on their resume. Would be hard to select either over the Tribe. Especially UNH with only seven wins.
An argument could be made for W&M in that scenario. UNH would have an argument because they would have a better conference record at 6-2 then W&M would have at 5-3 and they'd have a big win over Maine to end the season. I think it's unlikely teams like UNH or UTM are in contention because of the tough games they have this Saturday but if they're able to pick up those tough games they'll be very much in the mind of the committee when they're trying to fill out those last few at large spots.


You are INCORRECT.

HBU is playing a non-classified schedule this year. This year does not count towards player eligibility - just towards the five-year clock. Does not count towards APR either. South Alabama is only other school in recent memory who has done something like this.

I still cannot believe how often this subject comes up and how often people are wrong.
Thanks TT, I wasn't aware of that. I was going off unconfirmed info posted in another thread from someone else who was also apparently wrong about this. I still think SHSU is in, win or lose on Saturday against UCA, regardless of only having 6 D1 wins in that case.

[UNHWildcat18]

CAA will have 4 teams.
Maine
Towson
W&M
UNH

[BisonBacker]

Who would have thought that Montana State would be on the bubble at the beginning of the year? That injury to their QB really put them in a pickle while he was out.

[chattownmocs]

After looking at it again, I realized I forgot to place the socon teams. I think we are 25th. Meaning we need help.

[Bigblue2013]

Something people don't realize, TSU won both against UTM and JSU on the road. Plus TSU played 12 straight games, with no bye, so of course they are gonna be banged up, 8 starters not playing against EKU. Sucks they lost to EKU. Shouldn't hurt them from going to the playoffs. They have 3 loses, one to the OVC champion, and lost to the MEAC champion by a field goal first game of the year. Great season, should be rewarded with post season.

[Lehigh'98]

CAA will have 4 teams.
Maine
Towson
W&M
UNH


This is assuming UNH beats Maine, which is a big assumption. Maine will be playing for a potential 2-3 seed. UNH cannot fall behind, they lack the passing game to play catch up. Their defense plays better at home, but still have serious issues on that side of the ball. Lehigh winning also helps UNH with SOS this week as well.

[R.A.]

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman 9-2, 6-1 (vs Florida A&M 3-8, 2-5) *Beat SC State *1 Non DI win
South Carolina State 8-3, 6-1 (at Norfolk State 3-8, 3-4) *1 Non DI win


Bethune Cookman beat FBS Florida international...

[ValleyTalk]

Despite having 7 teams in Massey's top 26 of the FCS, I continue to scratch my head when people say the MVFC should only get two playoff teams in. Computers and GPI have it clearly as #1 conference, yet weaker conferences will get 4 teams in.

Knowing that, I still think YSU vs. SDSU is a play-in game, unless a lot of those bubble teams lose this weekend.

[Grizzlies82]

Despite having 7 teams in Massey's top 26 of the FCS, I continue to scratch my head when people say the MVFC should only get two playoff teams in. Computers and GPI have it clearly as #1 conference, yet weaker conferences will get 4 teams in. Knowing that, I still think YSU vs. SDSU is a play-in game, unless a lot of those bubble teams lose this weekend.

Don't take it as a slight to the MVC, it is more a case of circumstance. An 8-4 Youngstown would have as good of, or better, a chance to get in as any other bubble team. Except if they lose to SD State, they finish their season with three consecutive losses. Historically momentum plays a significant role in the selection of bubble teams. An 8-4 record with a six, seven, or eight game winning streak is viewed very favorably. On the other hand, a team which lost games the last three weekends before selection Sunday appears highly suspect if not downright unworthy. I think this is YSU's biggest hurdle if they were to lose. So tell your team, "Win and your in." :) We have plenty of interesting games this weekend! Good luck to all!

[chattanoogamocs]

Despite having 7 teams in Massey's top 26 of the FCS, I continue to scratch my head when people say the MVFC should only get two playoff teams in. Computers and GPI have it clearly as #1 conference, yet weaker conferences will get 4 teams in.

Knowing that, I still think YSU vs. SDSU is a play-in game, unless a lot of those bubble teams lose this weekend.

I don't disagree...but the unfortunate side effect having an undefeated team beating everyone and then balanced, strong, group that has beat up on each other.

This is an ironic twist to the NCAA basketball tournament where the big schools that are fighting for at-larges, hate the smaller schools gobbling up spots with autobids...now the shoe is on the other foot when the stronger FCS football conferences.

I won't lie, Chattanooga is on the bubble and I am looking at the list and saying, why should Butler/Marist or Sacred Heart get in? And then I remind myself that every March my school is a David, so I can't really complain the other direction when a team I pull for has a chance to be a Goliath and is fighting for an at-large.

[Houndawg]

Don't take it as a slight to the MVC, it is more a case of circumstance. An 8-4 Youngstown would have as good of, or better, a chance to get in as any other bubble team. Except if they lose to SD State, they finish their season with three consecutive losses. Historically momentum plays a significant role in the selection of bubble teams. An 8-4 record with a six, seven, or eight game winning streak is viewed very favorably. On the other hand, a team which lost games the last three weekends before selection Sunday appears highly suspect if not downright unworthy. I think this is YSU's biggest hurdle if they were to lose. So tell your team, "Win and your in." :) We have plenty of interesting games this weekend! Good luck to all!

I think momentum is a legit consideration since all teams have ups and downs during the season. What hurts YSU, imo, is the fact that they're 1-3 against the four toughest FCS teams on their schedule and lucky to not be 0-4.

[knucklehead]

Does the committee use the sagarin rankings at all?

[Houndawg]

Does the committee use the sagarin rankings at all?

When it can be used to justify their picks, maybe.

[Walkon79]

Going back to the Lulay years, the Cats have been in this position many times, needing a win against the Griz to just make the field. We've played much better, and won more of those games than when we were considered the favorite.

ALL OR NOTHING, CATS!!

[WrenFGun]

Just my opinion, but I think W&M should make the playoffs easily (and will) unless they lose to Richmond. W&M beat UNH head-to-head and unless UNH finishes two games ahead in the CAA I think that's clearly the differentiator.

If I had to pick the one CAA team that I think can make a really deep run, it's actually W&M. Elite defense can take you a long way against anyone, and they can take that defense anywhere.

[TypicalTribe]

I'm going to remove all the teams with 5 losses and imagine the following results:

1. Montana over MSU
2. All three 4 loss CAA teams lose (very possible)
3. YSU over SDSU
4. EIU over UT-M
5. Lehigh over Lafayette
6. Wofford over Furman

I know that's 8 games, but it's a decently likely slate of possibilities. That would leave us with the following:

Big Sky
Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-0 (vs Portland St 6-5, 3-4) Beat #25 Oregon State *1 Non DI win
Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1 (at Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2)
Montana 9-2, 5-2 (at Montana State 7-4, 5-2) *1 Non DI win
Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2 (Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1) Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win

Big South
Coastal Carolina 10-1, 4-1 (at South Carolina)
Charleston Southern 10-2, 3-1 (Liberty 7-4, 3-1) *Beat CCU *2 Non DI wins

CAA
Maine 10-1, 7-0 (at New Hampshire 6-4, 5-2) Beat Massachusetts
Towson 9-2, 5-2 (at James Madison 6-5, 3-4) Beat Connecticut

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman 9-2, 6-1 (vs Florida A&M 3-8, 2-5) *Beat SC State *1 Non DI win
South Carolina State 8-3, 6-1 (at Norfolk State 3-8, 3-4) *1 Non DI win

Missouri Valley
North Dakota State 10-0, 7-0 (South Dakota 4-7, 3-4) Beat Kansas State *1 Non DI win
Youngstown State 8-3, 5-2 (South Dakota State 7-4, 4-3)

NEC
Sacred Heart 10-2, 4-2 *2 Non DI wins

OVC
Eastern Illinois 10-1, 7-0 (at UT Martin 7-4, 5-2) Beat San Diego State
Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
Jacksonville State 8-3, 4-3 (SE Missouri St 3-8, 2-5) Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI

Patriot League
Fordham 10-1, 0-0 (at Colgate 4-7, 3-2) Games do not count in league standings
Lehigh 8-2, 3-1 (Lafayette 4-6, 3-1)

Pioneer League
Butler 9-3, 7-1

Southern
Chattanooga 8-3, 6-2 (at Alabama 10-0, 7-0) Beat Georgia State 42-14
Samford 7-4, 5-2 (Elon 2-9, 1-6) Beat Georgia State 31-21

Southland
Southeastern Louisiana 9-2, 6-0 (Nicholls State 4-7, 1-5)
McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
Sam Houston State 8-3, 4-2 (at Central Arkansas 6-5, 3-3)

That's 24 teams exactly, although losses by SHSU, Samford, Charleston Southern, etc. could make things even more interesting. That's why I think this is the hardest playoff bracket to put together in memory. So many mediocre resumes and teams that are right on the edge of contention.

[Wallace]

Does the committee use the sagarin rankings at all?

No way because it does not rate all opponents of FCS squads. The head of NCAA football told me this. But in reality the committee members use whatever they want.

[Grizzlies82]

I'm going to remove all the teams with 5 losses and imagine the following results:

1. Montana over MSU
2. All three 4 loss CAA teams lose (very possible)
3. YSU over SDSU
4. EIU over UT-M
5. Lehigh over Lafayette
6. Wofford over Furman

I know that's 8 games, but it's a decently likely slate of possibilities. That would leave us with the following:

Big Sky
Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-0 (vs Portland St 6-5, 3-4) Beat #25 Oregon State *1 Non DI win
Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1 (at Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2)
Montana 9-2, 5-2 (at Montana State 7-4, 5-2) *1 Non DI win
Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2 (Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1) Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win

Big South
Coastal Carolina 10-1, 4-1 (at South Carolina)
Charleston Southern 10-2, 3-1 (Liberty 7-4, 3-1) *Beat CCU *2 Non DI wins

CAA
Maine 10-1, 7-0 (at New Hampshire 6-4, 5-2) Beat Massachusetts
Towson 9-2, 5-2 (at James Madison 6-5, 3-4) Beat Connecticut

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman 9-2, 6-1 (vs Florida A&M 3-8, 2-5) *Beat SC State *1 Non DI win
South Carolina State 8-3, 6-1 (at Norfolk State 3-8, 3-4) *1 Non DI win

Missouri Valley
North Dakota State 10-0, 7-0 (South Dakota 4-7, 3-4) Beat Kansas State *1 Non DI win
Youngstown State 8-3, 5-2 (South Dakota State 7-4, 4-3)

NEC
Sacred Heart 10-2, 4-2 *2 Non DI wins

OVC
Eastern Illinois 10-1, 7-0 (at UT Martin 7-4, 5-2) Beat San Diego State
Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
Jacksonville State 8-3, 4-3 (SE Missouri St 3-8, 2-5) Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI

Patriot League
Fordham 10-1, 0-0 (at Colgate 4-7, 3-2) Games do not count in league standings
Lehigh 8-2, 3-1 (Lafayette 4-6, 3-1)

Pioneer League
Butler 9-3, 7-1

Southern
Chattanooga 8-3, 6-2 (at Alabama 10-0, 7-0) Beat Georgia State 42-14
Samford 7-4, 5-2 (Elon 2-9, 1-6) Beat Georgia State 31-21

Southland
Southeastern Louisiana 9-2, 6-0 (Nicholls State 4-7, 1-5)
McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
Sam Houston State 8-3, 4-2 (at Central Arkansas 6-5, 3-3)

That's 24 teams exactly, although losses by SHSU, Samford, Charleston Southern, etc. could make things even more interesting. That's why I think this is the hardest playoff bracket to put together in memory. So many mediocre resumes and teams that are right on the edge of contention.

Very nice summary. This could be our field of 24... or not. Again assuming the wins & losses are as your premise, I'd still question the following;
1. Because of the questionable reputation of the Big South, would Charleston Southern make it if they lose to Liberty.
2. Because of the questionable reputation of the MEAC, would So. Carolina State make it?
3. Would three teams come from the OVC? I wonder if it wouldn't be just two.
4. Would the SoCon send two teams? I suspect Samford is out unless they're the auto-bid.

Hope I didn't offend anyone with "questionable reputation" comments. That wasn't my intent. I'm simply pointing out the selection committee typically doesn't give many invites to conferences which are lacking strong playoff records. I am just indicating there may be one to four more slots in the field of 24. So any four loss team which manages to win this weekend may still be in the mix.

[TypicalTribe]

1. Because of the questionable reputation of the Big South, would Charleston Southern make it if they lose to Liberty.
2. Because of the questionable reputation of the MEAC, would So. Carolina State make it?
3. Would three teams come from the OVC? I wonder if it wouldn't be just two.
4. Would the SoCon send two teams? I suspect Samford is out unless they're the auto-bid.



If the answer is no to any of those questions, then in my scenario the committee would have to choose a team with 5 losses.

[Grizzlies82]

If the answer is no to any of those questions, then in my scenario the committee would have to choose a team with 5 losses.

Understood. I'm just guessing your scenario of expected losses doesn't precisely pan out. As a result there may be some four loss teams still in consideration, such as William & Mary among others.

[JayJ79]

1. Big South
2. MEAC
3. OVC

Hope I didn't offend anyone with "questionable reputation" comments. That wasn't my intent. I'm simply pointing out the selection committee typically doesn't give many invites to conferences which are lacking strong playoff records. I am just indicating there may be one to four more slots in the field of 24. So any four loss team which manages to win this weekend may still be in the mix.

How many playoff wins have those three conferences gotten in the past decade or so?

[IaaScribe]

Liberty's beat writer thinks they have a shot with a CSU win this week. While I want Liberty to win so Coastal will get the autobid, I can't see how a 6 DI win Liberty is seriously considered.

Only if a crap ton of other teams lose. It's the longest of long shots.

[furpal87]

First of all, assuming Furman beats Wofford (and I have no idea where that game is going other than Furman has momentum and the home field and Wofford doesn't), unless Samford pulls a monumental choke job and loses to ELon Furman is the auto bid. That would leave the committee to some tough decisions about the Southern teams. Chatt and Samford would both be 8-4, but Samford won last week. Would that leave Chatt out? I think there are several teams Chatt would like to see lose to feel safe (Mont St, Lafayette, UT-Martin, Youngstown, UNI, and maybe even SCST).

[rokamortis]

Very nice summary. This could be our field of 24... or not. Again assuming the wins & losses are as your premise, I'd still question the following;
1. Because of the questionable reputation of the Big South, would Charleston Southern make it if they lose to Liberty.
2. Because of the questionable reputation of the MEAC, would So. Carolina State make it?
3. Would three teams come from the OVC? I wonder if it wouldn't be just two.
4. Would the SoCon send two teams? I suspect Samford is out unless they're the auto-bid.

Hope I didn't offend anyone with "questionable reputation" comments. That wasn't my intent. I'm simply pointing out the selection committee typically doesn't give many invites to conferences which are lacking strong playoff records. I am just indicating there may be one to four more slots in the field of 24. So any four loss team which manages to win this weekend may still be in the mix.

No offense taken. But in the Big South's defense, they had 2 teams and 2 wins last year and I believe one team and one win the year before. So the precedent is there for 2 teams, not saying we will definitely get 2 but it has been done before.

CSU is in a difficult spot. With 2 DII wins but a 13 game schedule they can be a 9 DI win team if they beat Liberty and also have a good win over Coastal. I now think they may have a fairly good shot.

[Grizzlies82]

How many playoff wins have those three conferences gotten in the past decade or so?
Don't know. Nor am I aware of an easy place to find past playoff results (though it must exist).
Off the top of my head, over the past ten years I'd guess the Ohio Valley has the most wins out of this bunch though not very many. I seem to remember MEAC teams picking up a couple of wins. I have no memory of the Big South competing well but they may have some wins also.

[rokamortis]

Only if a crap ton of other teams lose. It's the longest of long shots.

I think CSU may have better shot of making it with a loss to Liberty than Liberty does by beating CSU - what are your thoughts?

[rokamortis]

How many playoff wins have those three conferences gotten in the past decade or so?

The Big South has only gotten the autobid fairly recently (2010). I think there have been 3 wins total. Coastal lost to App State in 2006 (hard to count that against us) as an at-large. Coastal lost to Western Illinois at home in 2010 with the first BSC autobid (you could count that against us as I thought we were better than we played that day), Stony Brook beat Albany but lost at Sam Houston State in 2011, Coastal beat Bethune-Cookman but lost at ODU in 2012 while Stony Brook beat Villanova and lost to Montana State. Not too shabby for a young conference.

[Catbooster]

Don't know. Nor am I aware of an easy place to find past playoff results (though it must exist).
Off the top of my head, over the past ten years I'd guess the Ohio Valley has the most wins out of this bunch though not very many. I seem to remember MEAC teams picking up a couple of wins. I have no memory of the Big South competing well but they may have some wins also.
For future reference, this is a good site for college football information: http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/index.php

[SumItUp]

Only if a crap ton of other teams lose. It's the longest of long shots.

18545

[knucklehead]

I think CSU may have better shot of making it with a loss to Liberty than Liberty does by beating CSU - what are your thoughts?
NO WAY. CSU is so far down the SOS and Sagarin rankings, that if they lose to LU, they are done. Again, Liberty would still need a TON of help.

[centennial]

In my opinion-
MVFC-
YSU GPI -9 Sagarin - 91
SDSU GPI - 12 S- 105
UNI GPI - 13 S - 86

CAA-
Townson GPI-6 S-75
W&M GPI- 15 S -79
UNH GPI- 26 S- 117

Southland-
McNeese St GPI-7 S-92
Sam Houston St GPI-10 S-93

Ohio Valley
Tennessee St GPI-21 S-121
Jacksonville St GPI- 23 S - 123

Big Sky
Montana GPI-8 s-103
Northern Arizona GPI-16 s-133
Montana St GPI-28 s-137

Southern
Samford GPI s-34 s-141

Patriot
Lehigh GPI-37 s-161

11 auto qualifiers + 13 out of these 15 teams

[rokamortis]

NO WAY. CSU is so far down the SOS and Sagarin rankings, that if they lose to LU, they are done. Again, Liberty would still need a TON of help.

I just said a better shot. I think Liberty has no chance even with a win and a lot of help.

[IaaScribe]

I think CSU may have better shot of making it with a loss to Liberty than Liberty does by beating CSU - what are your thoughts?

The only reason I think Liberty has any shot would be due to the four-game win streak (over crap teams, of course), which would be five with a win over a 10-win team, and a co-conference championship in a league that could very well have two impressive wins against the SoCon's champion (Furman). Should have been three, really, if PC hits that field goal. Liberty also rates well in some of the computer rankings, well ahead of CSU. I thought the Bucs would have been a shoo-in with a win at Gardner-Webb, regardless of the result Saturday. But outside of Coastal at home, CSU has nothing in the way of an impressive win. The best is probably App State in a down year, or the opener at El Cid. Either team would be way down in the pecking order. I think LU's chances are slim, less than 10 percent, even if things break right. But I don't think they're zero, so I felt it would have been disingenuous to say they were zero. That's all.

[knucklehead]

and no one has EVER accused you of being disingenuous. 10% is just enough to get my attention, so I can be crushed on Sunday! But don't worry....I'll be fine...(xsmhx) haha

[Cocky]

Don't know. Nor am I aware of an easy place to find past playoff results (though it must exist).
Off the top of my head, over the past ten years I'd guess the Ohio Valley has the most wins out of this bunch though not very many. I seem to remember MEAC teams picking up a couple of wins. I have no memory of the Big South competing well but they may have some wins also.
the OVC hasn't won in several years. If memory is correct the MEAC won a few years back. Big South no idea.
With that said we are choosing this years teams not teams from the past.

[Grizzlies82]

the OVC hasn't won in several years. If memory is correct the MEAC won a few years back. Big South no idea.
With that said we are choosing this years teams not teams from the past.

Cocky, that is correct. Though typically, when comparing the merits of various bubble teams with equivalent records, the selection committee has 'rewarded' and 'punished' certain conferences based on past playoff performances by their representatives. So as an example, if the hypothetical American Football Conference's (AFC) auto qualifier has gone 1-9 over the past decade, this year's AFC second place team has very little chance of being given a slot. There may be exceptions to that rule, but in general a bubble team from the CAA has a much better chance than one from the MEAC.

[Grizzlies82]

For future reference, this is a good site for college football information: http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/index.php
Thanks for posting this. That site has a wealth of historic results.

[Tealblood]

In my opinion-
MVFC-
YSU GPI -9 Sagarin - 91
SDSU GPI - 12 S- 105
UNI GPI - 13 S - 86

CAA-
Townson GPI-6 S-75
W&M GPI- 15 S -79
UNH GPI- 26 S- 117

Southland-
McNeese St GPI-7 S-92
Sam Houston St GPI-10 S-93

Ohio Valley
Tennessee St GPI-21 S-121
Jacksonville St GPI- 23 S - 123

Big Sky
Montana GPI-8 s-103
Northern Arizona GPI-16 s-133
Montana St GPI-28 s-137

Southern
Samford GPI s-34 s-141

Patriot
Lehigh GPI-37 s-161

11 auto qualifiers + 13 out of these 15 teams


a few problems here

Lehigh can be an auto bid so hard to keep Fordham out as at-large

also Charleston southern can win auto bid from big south and Coastal has a good shot at an at-large with 10 div. 1 wins

so at least 2 more teams eat into your 13 out 15

[Tealblood]

Additionally if Bethune cookman loses sc state is auto-bid and BC would have a good case for at large as well

[UNHWildcat18]

I have to disagree, the meac is a one bid league IMO. That at that loss would be against one of the worst teams in the meac next week. But they will win And get the auto bid anyways. No at large for scsu

[Tealblood]

I am just saying if they lose then sc state is the autobid and BC has a case for being an at large esp with and FBS win

[Darlinikki150]

a few problems here

Lehigh can be an auto bid so hard to keep Fordham out as at-large

also Charleston southern can win auto bid from big south and Coastal has a good shot at an at-large with 10 div. 1 wins

so at least 2 more teams eat into your 13 out 15


I am at total loss why people think UNI should even be considered. They are decimated by injury, have a horrible conference record and no major wins but McNeese??? Someone explain to me why they should even be on the list!?

[robsnotes4u]

I am at total loss why people think UNI should even be considered. They are decimated by injury, have a horrible conference record and no major wins but McNeese??? Someone explain to me why they should even be on the list!?

People have been looking at the SRS that use MOV, which they were rated high in, not knowing that the SRS the NCAA is using doesn't use a MOV but wins and loses.

The information on this SRS formula just came out today. Plus people aren't realizing other factors such as head to head and common opponents maybe more important.

In my opinion


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Darlinikki150]

People have been looking at the SRS that use MOV, which they were rated high in, not knowing that the SRS the NCAA is using doesn't use a MOV but wins and loses.

The information on this SRS formula just came out today. Plus people aren't realizing other factors such as head to head and common opponents maybe more important.

In my opinion


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Lol, not the answer I totally wanted but I get the drift. Thank u!

[JayJ79]

the OVC hasn't won in several years.

the last time a current OVC team won a playoff game was Murray State in 1996.
Western Kentucky won a playoff game in 2000 during their brief stint in rejoining the conference before they headed to the Gateway (and then onto FBS).

[robsnotes4u]

Lol, not the answer I totally wanted but I get the drift. Thank u!

Welcome, and I follow what you are saying, I would like to hear their side also


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[JayJ79]

I am at total loss why people think UNI should even be considered. They are decimated by injury, have a horrible conference record and no major wins but McNeese??? Someone explain to me why they should even be on the list!?

WERE decimated by injury. Some key players have come back, and some of the former 2nd and 3rd stringers have gained experience and have started to play quite well.
And UNI has more major wins than Youngstown and SDSU

[Darlinikki150]

Welcome, and I follow what you are saying, I would like to hear their side also


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Exactly, I want the people who are advocating for UNI to get in to tell me why they should be considered cuz honestly I don't see it.

[maine612]

I am at total loss why people think UNI should even be considered. They are decimated by injury, have a horrible conference record and no major wins but McNeese??? Someone explain to me why they should even be on the list!?

UNI is done.

[chattanoogamocs]

IN
North Dakota State 10-0, 7-0 (South Dakota 4-7, 3-4) Beat Kansas State *1 Non DI win
Maine 10-1, 7-0 (at New Hampshire 6-4, 5-2) Beat Massachusetts
Eastern Illinois 10-1, 7-0 (at UT Martin 7-4, 5-2) Beat San Diego State
Sacred Heart 10-2, 4-2 *2 Non DI wins
Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-0 (vs Portland St 6-5, 3-4) Beat #25 Oregon State *1 Non DI win
Butler 9-3, 7-1

Arranged by DI wins
10-1 Coastal Carolina 10-1, 4-1 (at South Carolina)
10-1 Fordham 10-1, 0-0 (at Colgate 4-7, 3-2)

9-2 Towson 9-2, 5-2 (at James Madison 6-5, 3-4) Beat Connecticut
9-2 Southeastern Louisiana 9-2, 6-0 (Nicholls State 4-7, 1-5)

8-2 Charleston Southern 10-2, 3-1 (Liberty 7-4, 3-1) *Beat CCU *2 Non DI wins
8-2 Montana 9-2, 5-2 (at Montana State 7-4, 5-2) *1 Non DI win
8-2 Bethune-Cookman 9-2, 6-1 (vs Florida A&M 3-8, 2-5) *Beat SC State *1 Non DI win
8-2 McNeese State 9-2, 5-1 (at Lamar 5-6, 2-4) Beat South Florida 53-21 *1 Non DI win
8-2 Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1 (at Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2)
8-2 Lehigh 8-2, 3-1 (Lafayette 4-6, 3-1)
8-2 South Carolina State 8-3, 6-1 (at Norfolk State 3-8, 3-4) *1 Non DI win
8-2 Southern Utah 8-3, 5-2 (Northern Arizona 8-2, 6-1) Beat South Alabama *1 Non DI win

8-3 Tennessee State 9-3, 6-2 *1 Non DI
8-3 Youngstown State 8-3, 5-2 (South Dakota State 7-4, 4-3)
8-3 Chattanooga 8-3, 6-2 (at Alabama 10-0, 7-0) Beat Georgia State 42-14

7-3 Jacksonville State 8-3, 4-3 (SE Missouri St 3-8, 2-5) Beat Georgia State 32-26 OT *1 Non DI
7-3 Sam Houston State 8-3, 4-2 (at Central Arkansas 6-5, 3-3) *win over Houston Baptist
7-4 Samford 7-4, 5-2 (Elon 2-9, 1-6) Beat Georgia State 31-21
7-4 UT Martin 7-4, 5-2 (Eastern Illinois 10-1, 7-0)
7-4 South Dakota State 7-4, 4-3 (at Youngstown State 8-3, 5-2)
7-4 Delaware 7-4, 4-3 (vs Villanova 5-5, 4-3)
7-4 William and Mary 7-4, 4-3 (at Richmond 5-6, 3-4)

6-4 Montana State 7-4, 5-2 (Montana 9-2, 5-2) *1 Non DI win
6-4 New Hampshire 6-4, 5-2 (Maine 10-1, 7-0)

6-5 Northern Iowa 6-5, 2-5 (Western Illinois 4-7, 2-5) Beat Iowa State
6-5 Eastern Kentucky 6-5, 4-3 (at Murray State 5-6, 3-4)
6-5 Furman 6-5, 5-2 (Wofford 5-5, 4-3)

4-6 Lafayette 4-6, 3-1 (at Lehigh 8-2, 3-1)