which 7-4 team will make the playoffs?

[LU van]

with all of the parity this year, it is likely that a 7-4 team will make the round of 16. Who is it going to be? xcoffeex

[AppGuy04]

Probably an A10 or Gateway team

[smallcollegefbfan]

with all of the parity this year, it is likely that a 7-4 team will make the round of 16. Who is it going to be? xcoffeex

To be honest since the Patriot League has not been very good and the OVC seems to be a first round exit, and the Southland looks pretty bad. I see all those leagues only getting one team. With that said I believe the SoCon gets 2 at most and Big Sky gets just 2. I think the MEAC, Southland, Patriot, and OVC all get one team. I believe UT-Martin will beat EIU and drop them out. I think the SoCon and Big Sky get 2 and then either the A-10 or Gateway gets 4. I believe that a 7-4 team from one of those leagues will get in. I could see Maine or JMU or even UNI get 4 losses but still get in.

[1Aneedsplayoffs]

Portland St might get in at 7-4

[smallcollegefbfan]

Portland St might get in at 7-4

I could see that. Now that I think of it Montana State could have 4 losses and still get in. We all know how successful they are against Montana in the season finale.

[AppGuy04]

Portland St might get in at 7-4

They still have Oregon, so they can't lose to another I-AA team

[Chi Panther]

The only 7-4 team making the playoffs will need the conference auto-bid

[FlyYtown]

Well an 8-3 team by the name of YSU last year was held out of the playoffs, even after winning a share of the Gateway..

What makes any of you think any 7-4 team deserves a spot... like ChiPanther says... only way that happens is an auto-bid.... and you must be in bad conference if that happens.

[blackfordpu]

The only 7-4 team making the playoffs will need the conference auto-bid

Especially if you're in the SLC. Pretty much have to win the auto-bid to get in this year.

[AppGuy04]

Well, in the case of PSU, if they have 4 losses, only 2 would be against a I-AA team, Montana and Montana St, depending on how those 2 teams finish, you could make a case

[JALMOND]

Portland St might get in at 7-4

PSU at 7-4...

1. One win vs I-A (New Mexico)
2. Two I-A losses to Cal and (probably) Oregon, two of the top three teams in the Pac-10 (both chasing USC).
3. Tough loss to I-AA top 5 team (Montana)
4. 6-2 in I-AA if we win out.
5. Played only four home games this year (seven road games)
6. Did not play any DII or lower teams this year (only I-A and the BSC games).

Not saying that we would get in at 7-4, but we have the resume to be the first 7-4 team to gain an at-large. I highly doubt anyone else would schedule the way we scheduled, let alone finish 7-4.

[Tod]

Which happens first, a 7-4 team, or an undefeated San Diego (yeah, I know San Diego has a game scheduled for the first week of the playoffs, just a hypothetical question)?

[JALMOND]

Which happens first, a 7-4 team, or an undefeated San Diego (yeah, I know San Diego has a game scheduled for the first week of the playoffs, just a hypothetical question)?

Compare a 7-4 PSU team with an undefeated San Diego team, who would you take? Keep in mind, for the Toreros to be in the playoffs, they would have to drop the Davis game. Without the Aggies, USD's schedule looks even worse.

Hypothetical question back to you---How do you think USD would do with PSU's schedule (2 top Pac-10 teams, a third I-A school and the full BSC slate)?

[ngineer]

With the way things are going in the Patriot this year, the 'champion' with the autobid could well be 7-4, with the entry based on a tie-breaker. Definently see the possibility of co-champs in this league again. Anyone of four teams as HC begins to slip into the picture as well...

[Go Poly]

Compare a 7-4 PSU team with an undefeated San Diego team, who would you take? Keep in mind, for the Toreros to be in the playoffs, they would have to drop the Davis game. Without the Aggies, USD's schedule looks even worse.

Hypothetical question back to you---How do you think USD would do with PSU's schedule (2 top Pac-10 teams, a third I-A school and the full BSC slate)?


If I had a choice between a 7-4 Portland State team and an undeated San Diego (that obviously has to beat Davis in Davis) I would pick San Diego. Don't think it will happen....Davis will absolutely crush the Toreros! 45-10 is my early prediction!

[Tod]

Compare a 7-4 PSU team with an undefeated San Diego team, who would you take? Keep in mind, for the Toreros to be in the playoffs, they would have to drop the Davis game. Without the Aggies, USD's schedule looks even worse.

Hypothetical question back to you---How do you think USD would do with PSU's schedule (2 top Pac-10 teams, a third I-A school and the full BSC slate)?

I didn't mean the question as a dis on PSU. I just meant that neither a 7-4 nor a mid-major team have made the playoffs. Which would the committee take first, if the mid-major is undefeated? I don't know the answer, just asking if anybody has an a better guess than me on what the committee would do.

[JALMOND]

If I had a choice between a 7-4 Portland State team and an undeated San Diego (that obviously has to beat Davis in Davis) I would pick San Diego. Don't think it will happen....Davis will absolutely crush the Toreros! 45-10 is my early prediction!

But would the Toreros be worthy of an at-large without the Davis game? Look at it this way (sorry I'm getting off the topic of the thread), in order for USD to be considered for the playoffs, it would have to be before the Davis game. At this late time of the season, it does not seem likely that the USD/Davis game would be rescheduled. So, my question (hypothetical of course), do you take a 7-4 PSU team over a 10-0 (without the Davis game) San Diego?

Of course, a win over the Aggies would trump any game that the Toreros have played, but you really can't count that game as a decision as to if USD is worthy of an at-large would have to be done before the Davis game.

[JALMOND]

I didn't mean the question as a dis on PSU. I just meant that neither a 7-4 nor a mid-major team have made the playoffs. Which would the committee take first, if the mid-major is undefeated? I don't know the answer, just asking if anybody has an a better guess than me on what the committee would do.

Dunno. The committee probably would find a reason to take Southern Utah or a second Southland team instead of having to decide.

No dis taken, Tod, and I'm sorry if it seemed like there was. It is a good and fair question. For it to be an issue, we have to win out in the conference, and we still have to go to Flagstaff. Another 6-5 season and we are spending Thanksgiving in Portland (again).

[Mr. C]

I didn't mean the question as a dis on PSU. I just meant that neither a 7-4 nor a mid-major team have made the playoffs. Which would the committee take first, if the mid-major is undefeated? I don't know the answer, just asking if anybody has an a better guess than me on what the committee would do.
7-4 teams have made the playoffs as at-larges. Appalachian State did it in 1992. But no one has done it since.

There were folks on the committee last year that said Hofstra was considered at 7-4. Montana State was not considered seriously at 7-4, even with its season-ending win over Montana.

The only way a 7-4 team will be in this season is as an auto-bid team. Portland State has zero chance, if it finishes 7-4, for an at-large bid. The committee will take an 8-3, or better team, every time.

[RabidRabbit]

Cal Poly - If they loss to San Diego St., Montana, and NDSU, all on the road would be 7-4. :bang: It would be a shame to leave the best conference home because 3 of the 5 aren't eligible.:nonono2:

Good thing they didn't lose to UC-Davis this year.:hurray:

[Bobcat in NC]

Moot point, I hope.

Cal Poly: 27
Horrible Aztecs: 13

[ysubigred]

The only 7-4 team making the playoffs will need the conference auto-bid

I agree Chi! To many team will be left at 8-3 or 9-2

[Lehigh Football Nation]

7-4 teams have made the playoffs as at-larges. Appalachian State did it in 1992. But no one has done it since.

There were folks on the committee last year that said Hofstra was considered at 7-4. Montana State was not considered seriously at 7-4, even with its season-ending win over Montana.

The only way a 7-4 team will be in this season is as an auto-bid team. Portland State has zero chance, if it finishes 7-4, for an at-large bid. The committee will take an 8-3, or better team, every time.

Mr. C - The trouble is that there many not BE enough 8-3 eligible at-large teams. I know for a fact the Patriot will not have any. The Southland and Big Sky are looking unlikely too (barring a seismic upset by PSU over Oregon). Although the A-10 and Gateway have some great teams, the losses will mount as they enter their division schedules. I actually think it's inevitable that a Furman, Montana State, or a 4th place Gateway or A-10 team get consideration.

Even the SoCon is looking dodgy. Furman can afford one more loss to finish at 8-3, but who else is there? Elon?

You know who the big X-Factor is here? The MEAC. Delaware State and FAMU could both finish at 9-2, and have a bunch of teams that could theoretically finish at 8-3.

[Go Apps]

At Large Bids - no 7-4 teams will qualify

Strange year - too many teams in the top 25 with 1 or fewer losses
15 of those are playoff eligible..

Perhaps it may come from an automatic berth from the Ohio Valley or Southland...

As For Hopes of the Selection Committee - Winning Out by both ASU and Montana (w/ a NH loss) would give the top 2 seeds to the top 2 draws - their dream scenario...

[LU van]

I agree with lehighfootballnation, I think there may not be 8 at large teams with 8-3 or better records that are worthy of a bid this year. That was the premise of my initial post. I think there is a good chance that a 7-4 team could get an at large bid!

[Walkon79]

Portland St might get in at 7-4

Montana State now has a better chance, after beating PSU at home. We could run the table now, though, so 8-3 is not out of the question, with an automatic bid and a win over the Grizzlies on November 18th.:hurray:

[Mr. C]

If New Hampshire and Appalachian State win out, they will be one-two in the seeding, no matter what Montana does. The winner of the Montana-Cal Poly game will likely earn one of the top-four seeds and the winner of the Gateway will likely get one of the top four seeds.

Should the carnage of the season continue, it could open up the opportunity for a Big South team to get a second bid, a MEAC team to get a second bid and a OVC team to even get a second bid with three losses or less. Even Central Connecticut State could manage to sneak in, if things get crazy enough. The committee will take teams like CCSU, Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Tennessee-Martin etc. before it goes with a 7-4 team.

[1Aneedsplayoffs]

Montana State now has a better chance, after beating PSU at home. We could run the table now, though, so 8-3 is not out of the question, with an automatic bid and a win over the Grizzlies on November 18th.:hurray:


Not out of the question, but highly unlikely

[bluehenbillk]

I agree with some of the osters, there are no 7-4 at-large teams that I'd deem worthy of consideration of a bid.

[Jackluv]

northern arizona

[PantherMan]

The potential for a 7-4 at-large bid is developing, but let's give it a couple more weeks before making a final call. Why the IAA selection of at-large teams is any different than the selection of at-larges in other playoff sports is still beyond me... A 7-4 Northern Iowa w/ 2 Gateway losses (must at least be respectable) or a 7-4 Furman (with no lopsided losses) would in my estimation be more playoff worthy than a CCSU or a 9-2/8-3 MEAC. If the NCAA basketball selection committee used this type of criteria, people would have a heartattack. Rewarding teams for an easy schedule is not productive; neither is holding out a top 10 or so squad. There is no MEAC (including Hampton) who I would put money on against a 7-4 UNI or Furman in the playoffs. Like I said, if things keep going the way they have been in a few weeks, then the 7-4 argument really develops in my opinion. For now, let's just hope that things sort themselves out and the committee doesn't have to make another poor decision like last season (omitting YSU).:twocents:

[LU van]

Where might the 8-3 or better teams come from?

A-10, 4 to 6 teams could be in the hunt, would the committee take more than 4 from one conference, I don't think so.

Big Sky, Montana for sure, only MT St has much of a chance if they run the table which I think is unlikely

Big South, Chuck S and Coastal will be 8-3 or better; 4 of Chuck S wins against presby, wingate, ed waters, and n greenville don't count, no bid for them; Coastal will have only 1 quality win but may get consideration at 9-2, no bid if they are 8-3

Gateway, league play just getting going and when the smoke clears there could be 3 teams 8-3 or better, all 3 should get bids

Great West, Cal Poly and ND State, ND not playoff eligible so only 1 bid here

MEAC, Hampton for sure, if any other team finishes 8-3 they won't have a quality win, only 1 bid here

OVC, Martin and E IL or Jack ST should be 8-3 or better, both get bids although Martin has no quality wins so far

Patriot, any team that finishishes 8-3 gets the automatic bid, 1 bid only

Southern, only Furman and App ST get consideration here, 2 bids

Southland, ugh, like the Patriot, 1 bid only

SWAC, second place team in the east likely to be 8-3 or better but with no quality wins, may get consideration

Independents, no discussion needed

Ivys, no playoff participation

NEC and Pioneer, first place teams sqare off and are not available for playoffs, a second place team in the NEC should be 8-3 or better but will they have a quality win and has the committee ever selected a NEC team? Don't think so.

Add them up,

A-10, 4
Big Sky, 1
Gateway, 3
Great West, 1
MEAC, 1
OVC, 2
Patriot, 1
Southern, 2
Southland, 1

That makes 16, but if any of these slip there could be a case for a 7-4 at large team. Would the committee consider a 7-4 team instead of 4 from the A-10? 4 from one conference will rasie eyebrows.

[Tribe4SF]

To be honest since the Patriot League has not been very good and the OVC seems to be a first round exit, and the Southland looks pretty bad. I see all those leagues only getting one team. With that said I believe the SoCon gets 2 at most and Big Sky gets just 2. I think the MEAC, Southland, Patriot, and OVC all get one team. I believe UT-Martin will beat EIU and drop them out. I think the SoCon and Big Sky get 2 and then either the A-10 or Gateway gets 4. I believe that a 7-4 team from one of those leagues will get in. I could see Maine or JMU or even UNI get 4 losses but still get in.

Neither Maine or JMU can make it at 7-4 because neither would have 7 D-I wins. UNI could get 7 D-I wins because they lost to a Div. II, but that fact would probably keep them out at 7-4.

Eastern Illinois is an interesting case, as they have 12 games this year (how'd that happen?). With 4 losses, they still have a good shot. They'd be 8-2 against I-AA.

[Walkon79]

I can make a case for MSU as the Auto-bid and UM as an at large at 8-3. The Griz would have to slip somewhere before November 18th for that to happen though. In recent memory, the BSC has had more than one representative in the tourney for many years. I don't see that changing in 2006.

[dbackjon]

Eastern Illinois is an interesting case, as they have 12 games this year (how'd that happen?). With 4 losses, they still have a good shot. They'd be 8-2 against I-AA.

If you play AT Hawaii, you are allowed a 12th game.

[JALMOND]

Montana State now has a better chance, after beating PSU at home. We could run the table now, though, so 8-3 is not out of the question, with an automatic bid and a win over the Grizzlies on November 18th.:hurray:

We thought the same thing last year after beating the Bobcats in Portland. We felt like we would get some consideration at 7-4. Then we lost in Pocatello. End of season.

Could happen to the Cats.

[MplsBison]

Eastern Illinois is an interesting case, as they have 12 games this year (how'd that happen?).

I believe both Hawaii and Alaska (if AK had a football team) get to play 1 game more than the rest of the lower 48 gets to play to help them make up money for travel expenses.

So DI-A gets 12 this year means Hawaii gets 13.


So, I assume, EIU was the 13th game for Hawaii and it doesn't count against EIU's total for some reason.

[FlyYtown]

The potential for a 7-4 at-large bid is developing, but let's give it a couple more weeks before making a final call. Why the IAA selection of at-large teams is any different than the selection of at-larges in other playoff sports is still beyond me... A 7-4 Northern Iowa w/ 2 Gateway losses (must at least be respectable) or a 7-4 Furman (with no lopsided losses) would in my estimation be more playoff worthy than a CCSU or a 9-2/8-3 MEAC. If the NCAA basketball selection committee used this type of criteria, people would have a heartattack. Rewarding teams for an easy schedule is not productive; neither is holding out a top 10 or so squad. There is no MEAC (including Hampton) who I would put money on against a 7-4 UNI or Furman in the playoffs. Like I said, if things keep going the way they have been in a few weeks, then the 7-4 argument really develops in my opinion. For now, let's just hope that things sort themselves out and the committee doesn't have to make another poor decision like last season (omitting YSU).:twocents:

Pantherman I've been on my best behavior as of late, but no way does any 7-4 Team get in with an AT-LARGE.

First off your in the Gateway, you already lost to a D2 Team, and if you lose two more, that is 7-4 on the year.

YSU - ILSU - SIU will all likely be 8-3 or better this year... There is no way any 7-4 Team will get in with an at large..... No WAY.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Neither Maine or JMU can make it at 7-4 because neither would have 7 D-I wins. UNI could get 7 D-I wins because they lost to a Div. II, but that fact would probably keep them out at 7-4.

Ahhhhh, therein lies the rub. I'm completely in agreement with you about Maine and JMU - if they go 7-4, they don't have enough D-I wins, so they're not in consideration. However, would you really - say - deny UNI with 7 D-I wins over a 10-1 CCSU team? If UNI goes 7-4, they would have gone gotten at least one win against SIU, Illinois State and Y-Town. You could make a very strong case that their one hypothetical win over one of those "big three" (not to mention, by implcation wins over WIU and WKU, which ain't exactly chopped liver) should be worth more than CCSU's 10-1 record against an also-ran Georgia Southern team.

To me, these are the difficult questions that are shaking up. I guess the real question is - how many schools can have 7 D-I wins and finish 7-4? UNI and Montana State, ironically, can do this by virtue of their D-II losses, as well as "12 game" Eastern Illinois. Any others?

[dbackjon]

To me, these are the difficult questions that are shaking up. I guess the real question is - how many schools can have 7 D-I wins and finish 7-4? UNI and Montana State, ironically, can do this by virtue of their D-II losses, as well as "12 game" Eastern Illinois. Any others?

See the new thread I started :)

[JALMOND]

Ahhhhh, therein lies the rub. I'm completely in agreement with you about Maine and JMU - if they go 7-4, they don't have enough D-I wins, so they're not in consideration. However, would you really - say - deny UNI with 7 D-I wins over a 10-1 CCSU team? If UNI goes 7-4, they would have gone gotten at least one win against SIU, Illinois State and Y-Town. You could make a very strong case that their one hypothetical win over one of those "big three" (not to mention, by implcation wins over WIU and WKU, which ain't exactly chopped liver) should be worth more than CCSU's 10-1 record against an also-ran Georgia Southern team.

To me, these are the difficult questions that are shaking up. I guess the real question is - how many schools can have 7 D-I wins and finish 7-4? UNI and Montana State, ironically, can do this by virtue of their D-II losses, as well as "12 game" Eastern Illinois. Any others?

Portland State by virtue of its win over New Mexico could have seven DI wins and only four losses (Cal, Montana, Montana State and Oregon-possibly).

[JALMOND]

Pantherman I've been on my best behavior as of late, but no way does any 7-4 Team get in with an AT-LARGE.

First off your in the Gateway, you already lost to a D2 Team, and if you lose two more, that is 7-4 on the year.

YSU - ILSU - SIU will all likely be 8-3 or better this year... There is no way any 7-4 Team will get in with an at large..... No WAY.

Portland State possibly gets in with a 7-4 and gets "rewarded" with a trip to Youngstown.

[Walkon79]

We thought the same thing last year after beating the Bobcats in Portland. We felt like we would get some consideration at 7-4. Then we lost in Pocatello. End of season.

Could happen to the Cats.

A 7-4 at-large could come in two ways for Montana State, both long-shots as far as consideration from the committee.

1) Run the table until November 18th, then lose a close game to the Griz for the conference title.

2) Slip up somewhere along the line, but beat the Griz to finish 7-4 with a share of the title. (This is assuming the Griz also have a lapse somewhere along the line).

Again both are long-shots, and the only way to go is make it a sure thing:
- 8-3
- Sole BSC champions.

After our 3 game home slide to start the year, this may be a dream. But at least we still have a dream.

[FlyYtown]

Portland State possibly gets in with a 7-4 and gets "rewarded" with a trip to Youngstown.

LOL don't take this the wrong way: but it is a reward to play in the Ice Castle since its a great stadium, but to play in front of 18,000 screaming fans in the cold Great Lakes air where the penguins have won 11 in a row... is another thing..

If YSU can win out, that should mean a home seed, and I think that means WINS for the Guins..... I am not confident with this team on the road.

[JALMOND]

LOL don't take this the wrong way: but it is a reward to play in the Ice Castle since its a great stadium, but to play in front of 18,000 screaming fans in the cold Great Lakes air where the penguins have won 11 in a row... is another thing..

If YSU can win out, that should mean a home seed, and I think that means WINS for the Guins..... I am not confident with this team on the road.

Pretty much my point. The Vikings get in at 7-4, then have to play at Youngstown. The committee pretty much saying "OK, we'll take you with your resume at 7-4, but you have to go to the Ice House!"

[DB_Atlantic10]

To be honest since the Patriot League has not been very good and the OVC seems to be a first round exit, and the Southland looks pretty bad. I see all those leagues only getting one team. With that said I believe the SoCon gets 2 at most and Big Sky gets just 2. I think the MEAC, Southland, Patriot, and OVC all get one team. I believe UT-Martin will beat EIU and drop them out. I think the SoCon and Big Sky get 2 and then either the A-10 or Gateway gets 4. I believe that a 7-4 team from one of those leagues will get in. I could see Maine or JMU or even UNI get 4 losses but still get in.


JMU with 4 losses can't get in....the D-II win will always loom in that case as with last year....

[DB_Atlantic10]

I didn't mean the question as a dis on PSU. I just meant that neither a 7-4 nor a mid-major team have made the playoffs. Which would the committee take first, if the mid-major is undefeated? I don't know the answer, just asking if anybody has an a better guess than me on what the committee would do.

The committee would do neither...they would chose the last standing 8-3 team out there....