SRS- supposed to be released by now

[Tealblood]

From what I was told the NCAA was going to release it late in the season

should be interesting how some standings get reflected with that in play

will also be interesting how it used for seedlings and at-larges

[superman7515]

It's supposed to be in a "testing" mode this season, so I'm not sure how big of a factor they will let it play.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/article_24d7e0ae-1bdd-11e3-b416-001a4bcf6878.html


Consider the 2013 season a test period for the Simple Rating System (SRS).
In June, the Division I Football Championship Committee added the SRS to the list of factors to be considered when looking at potential at-large teams for the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs. Though the vote to add the SRS went through during the summer, the selection committee for the 24-team tournament is still tweaking a number of factors, which is why the SRS is sort of in beta mode this season.



“We want to make sure it’s right before we go into it and all of a sudden there’s all these issues that come out of it,” Northern Iowa athletics director Troy Dannen — a committee member — told the Argus Leader of Sioux Falls, S.D. “Basically, if we pick the wrong teams, it’s going to lose credibility.”

The last that I saw Monday was:
1. North Dakota State
2. Eastern Illinois
3. Southeastern Louisiana
4. Eastern Washington
5. Villanova
6. Towson
7. McNeese State
8. Northern Iowa
9. Coastal Carolina
10. Maine
11. William & Mary
12. Missouri State
13. Old Dominion
14. Youngstown State
15. Sam Houston State
16. Jacksonville State
17. Montana
18. South Dakota State
19. Princeton
20. Southern Illinois
21. Cal Poly SLO
22. New Hampshire
23. Tennessee State
24. Chattanooga
25. Fordham
26. Bethune-Cookman
27. Montana State
28. Harvard
29. Samford
30. Northern Arizona
31. South Carolina State
32. Tennessee-Martin
33. Illinois State
34. Central Arkansas
35. Eastern Kentucky
36. James Madison
37. Liberty
38. Murray State
39. Georgia Southern
40. Wofford
41. Richmond
42. Stony Brook
43. Yale
44. Brown
45. Portland State
46. South Dakota
47. Delaware
48. Furman
49. Sacramento State
50. Dartmouth

[Tealblood]

I understand it is "official" next year but I do think it will be another thing the committee looks at this year if nothing else to see what tweeks it needs.

it is also interesting to see these standings reflect some teams with multiple non D-1's on the schedule

CCU right where I thought we'd be
but look at as an example SHSU or Fordham and conversely look at UNI

or the complete lack of charleston southern in the top 50

[AmsterBison]

Sam Houston #15 + Eastern Washington #4 = WTF

UNI and Missouri State's rankings are interesting as well (although Missouri State is probably one of the better teams in the FCS right now, they sure weren't showing it at the start of the season.)

[ccd494]

5. Villanova
6. Towson
10. Maine

That's adorable.

[Fordham2012]

5. Villanova
6. Towson
10. Maine

That's adorable.

And Fordham 25? This needs debugging.

[superman7515]

Fordham has weak sauce SOS holding them down.

[Fordham2012]

Fordham has weak sauce SOS holding them down.

But to rank them behind a team they beat, and they did beat a FBS team?

[superman7515]

But to rank them behind a team they beat, and they did beat a FBS team?

Even with the FBS game, Fordham's SOS is #214 out of 252.

#209 Rhode Island
#75 Villanova
#131 Temple
#245 Columbia
#183 St. Francis
#164 Lehigh
#243 Georgetown
#151 Yale
#179 Holy Cross
#181 Bucknell

[Fordham2012]

Even with the FBS game, Fordham's SOS is #214 out of 252.

#209 Rhode Island
#75 Villanova
#131 Temple
#245 Columbia
#183 St. Francis
#164 Lehigh
#243 Georgetown
#151 Yale
#179 Holy Cross
#181 Bucknell


I understand how Temple and the CAA teams could be regarded as having a higher SOS, but the Ivies and other Patriot teams? I demand a recount.

[citdog]

But to rank them behind a team they beat, and they did beat a FBS team?


Temple is not REALLY an fbs team

[superman7515]

I understand how Temple and the CAA teams could be regarded as having a higher SOS, but the Ivies and other Patriot teams? I demand a recount.

That's not their SOS, that is where they rank. For example, Rhode Island ranks #209 but has a SOS of 141. Because Fordham played so many weak teams from the Ivy & PL, their SOS is waaay down and holding them back in the SRS.

[Cocky]

Temple is not REALLY an fbs team
Yes they are because GSU is one.
UNA was better thou.

[Fordham2012]

That's not their SOS, that is where they rank. For example, Rhode Island ranks #209 but has a SOS of 141. Because Fordham played so many weak teams from the Ivy & PL, their SOS is waaay down and holding them back in the SRS.

From post 9 -

Even with the FBS game, Fordham's SOS is #214 out of 252.

#209 Rhode Island
#75 Villanova
#131 Temple
#245 Columbia
#183 St. Francis
#164 Lehigh
#243 Georgetown
#151 Yale
#179 Holy Cross
#181 Bucknell

Are you not saying the above are the SOSs -- How can Fordham have a lower SOS than other PL and the Ivies?

[superman7515]

No, those are where the team ranks out of all 252 D1 football schools. Again, Rhode Island is #209 out of #252, but has an SOS that is #141 out of 252.

#245 Columbia - SOS 151
#164 Lehigh - SOS 206
#243 Georgetown - SOS 216
#151 Yale - SOS 189
#179 Holy Cross - SOS 184
#181 Bucknell - SOS 196

And the easiest way to explain why Fordham's SOS is lower... Every time Fordham played a crappy team like Georgetown, Fordham's SOS went down. But Georgetown's SOS went up because they were playing a good team (Fordham).

[rokamortis]

I understand it is "official" next year but I do think it will be another thing the committee looks at this year if nothing else to see what tweeks it needs.

it is also interesting to see these standings reflect some teams with multiple non D-1's on the schedule

CCU right where I thought we'd be
but look at as an example SHSU or Fordham and conversely look at UNI

or the complete lack of charleston southern in the top 50

Looks like it places a high value on playing full scholarship DI teams. Good deal.

[Grizzlies82]

It's supposed to be in a "testing" mode this season, so I'm not sure how big of a factor they will let it play.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/article_24d7e0ae-1bdd-11e3-b416-001a4bcf6878.html



The last that I saw Monday was:
1. North Dakota State
2. Eastern Illinois
3. Southeastern Louisiana
4. Eastern Washington
5. Villanova
6. Towson
7. McNeese State
8. Northern Iowa
9. Coastal Carolina
10. Maine
11. William & Mary
12. Missouri State
13. Old Dominion
14. Youngstown State
15. Sam Houston State
16. Jacksonville State
17. Montana
18. South Dakota State
19. Princeton
20. Southern Illinois
21. Cal Poly SLO
22. New Hampshire
23. Tennessee State
24. Chattanooga
25. Fordham
26. Bethune-Cookman
27. Montana State
28. Harvard
29. Samford
30. Northern Arizona
31. South Carolina State
32. Tennessee-Martin
33. Illinois State
34. Central Arkansas
35. Eastern Kentucky
36. James Madison
37. Liberty
38. Murray State
39. Georgia Southern
40. Wofford
41. Richmond
42. Stony Brook
43. Yale
44. Brown
45. Portland State
46. South Dakota
47. Delaware
48. Furman
49. Sacramento State
50. Dartmouth

If this is an accurate list of where the teams would be ranked at this point... This system needs to be completely revamped or discarded. There are some very bizarre results here.

[Fordham2012]

No, those are where the team ranks out of all 252 D1 football schools. Again, Rhode Island is #209 out of #252, but has an SOS that is #141 out of 252.

#245 Columbia - SOS 151
#164 Lehigh - SOS 206
#243 Georgetown - SOS 216
#151 Yale - SOS 189
#179 Holy Cross - SOS 184
#181 Bucknell - SOS 196

And the easiest way to explain why Fordham's SOS is lower... Every time Fordham played a crappy team like Georgetown, Fordham's SOS went down. But Georgetown's SOS went up because they were playing a good team (Fordham).

Still makes no sense to me, but what the heck, I don't what algorithm they are using to determine SOS.

1. Bucknell -- no FBS opponents, will play VMI? SOS above Fordham, which played Villanova and Temple?
2. Holy Cross -- no FBS opponents, played Towson
3. Columbia -- plays Ivy a few others, plus Fordham.
4. Yale - Ivy, some PL and Cal Poly

IMHO, the SOS was screwed up. Either wrong parameters or bad input. Maybe I don't understand how this is supposed to work.

[bluehenbillk]

The SRS plays zero factor in this years playoff selection - it doesn't start until 2014 as the info/data that will go into it hasn't even been agreed upon yet.

[superman7515]

The SRS plays zero factor in this years playoff selection - it doesn't start until 2014 as the info/data that will go into it hasn't even been agreed upon yet.

There's nothing that says they won't use it at all this season. As for the info/data, it has been agreed upon, the entire point of a Simple Rating System is that it is simple. It is the teams SOS plus adjusted margin of victory. An SOS of 30 and a MOV of 30 = SRS 60.

And for them to not use it at all this season would be counter to what the committee said in announcing that the tool would be recalculated every week through the final weeks games on Nov 23 (which is this year) at which time it would be utilized to help pick the at-large teams.


http://www.sisportsconnection.com/mvfc-head-coaches-discuss-future-of-fcs-and-division-i-football/


First, there are a few changes at the FCS level for the 2013 season, the most notable being the expansion of the playoffs from 20 to 24 teams. The expansion will include one more automatic conference bid and three more at-large bids, for a grand total of 13 at-large slots.
To go along with this expansion, the selection committee will now consider teams with at least six Division I wins for the postseason. In previous years, seven Division I wins had been the cutoff to be considered for the playoffs.

In addition, the selection committee will add the Simple Rating System (SRS) as one of the tools to determine playoff teams. Of course, simple is a relative term when it comes to college football ratings formulas. All you need to know is that the SRS is similar to college basketball’s RPI and is calculated using only strength of schedule and margin of victory.

[Fordham2012]

There's nothing that says they won't use it at all this season. As for the info/data, it has been agreed upon, the entire point of a Simple Rating System is that it is simple. It is the teams SOS plus adjusted margin of victory. An SOS of 30 and a MOV of 30 = SRS 60.

And for them to not use it at all this season would be counter to what the committee said in announcing that the tool would be recalculated every week through the final weeks games on Nov 23 (which is this year) at which time it would be utilized to help pick the at-large teams.


http://www.sisportsconnection.com/mvfc-head-coaches-discuss-future-of-fcs-and-division-i-football/

Do you have a link or information as to how SOS is computed? TIA.

[slostang]

It's supposed to be in a "testing" mode this season, so I'm not sure how big of a factor they will let it play.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/article_24d7e0ae-1bdd-11e3-b416-001a4bcf6878.html



The last that I saw Monday was:
1. North Dakota State
2. Eastern Illinois
3. Southeastern Louisiana
4. Eastern Washington
5. Villanova
6. Towson
7. McNeese State
8. Northern Iowa
9. Coastal Carolina
10. Maine
11. William & Mary
12. Missouri State
13. Old Dominion
14. Youngstown State
15. Sam Houston State
16. Jacksonville State
17. Montana
18. South Dakota State
19. Princeton
20. Southern Illinois
21. Cal Poly SLO
22. New Hampshire
23. Tennessee State
24. Chattanooga
25. Fordham
26. Bethune-Cookman
27. Montana State
28. Harvard
29. Samford
30. Northern Arizona
31. South Carolina State
32. Tennessee-Martin
33. Illinois State
34. Central Arkansas
35. Eastern Kentucky
36. James Madison
37. Liberty
38. Murray State
39. Georgia Southern
40. Wofford
41. Richmond
42. Stony Brook
43. Yale
44. Brown
45. Portland State
46. South Dakota
47. Delaware
48. Furman
49. Sacramento State
50. Dartmouth
With Cal Poly sitting at 21 and the playoffs moving to 24 teams they have a real shot to move up in to contention for an at large bid this weekend if they can pull off a HUGE upset of #4 EWU.

[bluehenbillk]

There's nothing that says they won't use it at all this season. As for the info/data, it has been agreed upon, the entire point of a Simple Rating System is that it is simple. It is the teams SOS plus adjusted margin of victory. An SOS of 30 and a MOV of 30 = SRS 60.


"In June, the Division I Football Championship Committee added the SRS to the list of factors to be considered when looking at potential at-large teams for the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs. Though the vote to add the SRS went through during the summer, the selection committee for the 24-team tournament is still tweaking a number of factors, which is why the SRS is sort of in beta mode this season.
“We want to make sure it’s right before we go into it and all of a sudden there’s all these issues that come out of it,” Northern Iowa athletics director Troy Dannen — a committee member — told the Argus Leader of Sioux Falls, S.D. “Basically, if we pick the wrong teams, it’s going to lose credibility.”"
http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/article_24d7e0ae-1bdd-11e3-b416-001a4bcf6878.html?mode=jqm

[superman7515]

Yes, I linked that myself in the beginning of the thread, but they have never contradicted themselves and said it would not be used at all. They said they might tweak it, but not that they would ignore it.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Because Fordham played so many weak teams from the Ivy & PL...

Or maybe their "schedule strength" is skewed because they don't lard up with games against Florida State.

People really take these "schedule strength" numbers as gospel when they shouldn't.

[superman7515]

Regardless of whether they should or not, it's 50% of the SRS.

[clenz]

Or maybe their "schedule strength" is skewed because they don't lard up with games against Florida State.

People really take these "schedule strength" numbers as gospel when they shouldn't.
Or....not.

UNI has a good, not great, SOS...it's pretty easy to find a good balance of both.

@ Iowa State - FBS
vs McNeese State - top 10 FCS - and was a BLOW OUT W. Turns our blowing out top 10 teams helpsl the SOS...not getting blown out
vs Drake - back to back PFL champs - may win it again this year
@ Northern Colorado - not a great team

Put that with playing NDSU, SIU, Il St, SDSU, and YSU in conference (along with the rest of the MVFC) and you'll see where the SOS comes into play.

Would Lehigh go 10-1 against that schedule?

I doubt they go 5-5, like UNI has while playing 3rd stringers

[fmrbearkat]

Or....not.

UNI has a good, not great, SOS...it's pretty easy to find a good balance of both.

@ Iowa State - FBS
vs McNeese State - top 10 FCS - and was a BLOW OUT W. Turns our blowing out top 10 teams helpsl the SOS...not getting blown out
vs Drake - back to back PFL champs - may win it again this year
@ Northern Colorado - not a great team

Put that with playing NDSU, SIU, Il St, SDSU, and YSU in conference (along with the rest of the MVFC) and you'll see where the SOS comes into play.

Would Lehigh go 10-1 against that schedule?

I doubt they go 5-5, like UNI has while playing 3rd stringers

A win or loss should not affect your strength of schedule in any way whatsoever!! A strength of schedule should be purely about what your opponents do during a season!!

i would even venture to say "blowing out" a team would hurt your strength of schedule but obviously help your overall ranking more!

[clenz]

A win or loss should not affect your strength of schedule in any way whatsoever!! A strength of schedule should be purely about what your opponents do during a season!!

i would even venture to say "blowing out" a team would hurt your strength of schedule but obviously help your overall ranking more!
Right...beating a McNeese State team 41-6 is bad for UNI's SOS...

Yep, that makes sense.

We'll play that game. McNeese State hurts your SOS because they beat you and got ****ing crushed by a 5-5 team.

[ElCid]

A win or loss should not affect your strength of schedule in any way whatsoever!! A strength of schedule should be purely about what your opponents do during a season!!

i would even venture to say "blowing out" a team would hurt your strength of schedule but obviously help your overall ranking more!

I think it is a little of both. When you play a team, regardless of the outcome, that other team has a strength computed by who they play and how well they have done ALL YEAR, including your team's game with them. But your team's impact on the other teams rankings is only 1/11 or 1/12 of their strength. The game may be a blow out, but that does not lower, or increase, their strength a huge amount. Obviously the more difference in the ranking between the two the more it will have an impact, if the lower ranked team wins. But if the teams are somewhat close, it should not be a huge impact whether you blow them out or not. Because, 1) it is only one game and 2) on almost all computer ranking systems there is a built in diminishing return for points scored. The difference between blowing out a team by 40-7 or 60-7 will not affect it a great deal.

[superman7515]

Right...beating a McNeese State team 41-6 is bad for UNI's SOS...

Yep, that makes sense.

We'll play that game. McNeese State hurts your SOS because they beat you and got ****ing crushed by a 5-5 team.

If that's what you think, you clearly don't understand SOS at all. Beating McNeese does hurt your SOS. Beating any team hurts your SOS. First game of the season, you beat NDSU. NDSU now hasn't won a game all season, so your SOS drops, because the only team you played hasn't beaten anyone. Flip side, first game of the season, you lose to Drake. Drake is undefeated, so your SOS rises, because the only team you played is undefeated.

The immediate effects of SOS are minimal, but the inverse of what you seem to think. It's how the teams you played do across the entire season. Yes, your win against McNeese hurt your SOS immediately, but if McNeese then goes 10-1, your SOS went up every week after. If you lose to Drake and they go 1-10, your SOS went up in the immediate aftermath, but dropped every week after.

[clenz]

If that's what you think, you clearly don't understand SOS at all. Beating McNeese does hurt your SOS. Beating any team hurts your SOS. First game of the season, you beat NDSU. NDSU now hasn't won a game all season, so your SOS drops, because the only team you played hasn't beaten anyone. Flip side, first game of the season, you lose to Drake. Drake is undefeated, so your SOS rises, because the only team you played is undefeated.

The immediate effects of SOS are minimal, but the inverse of what you seem to think. It's how the teams you played do across the entire season. Yes, your win against McNeese hurt your SOS immediately, but if McNeese then goes 10-1, your SOS went up every week after. If you lose to Drake and they go 1-10, your SOS went up in the immediate aftermath, but dropped every week after.
What do you think I'm saying?

McNeese is now 8-2 with win a win over SHSU...

How does that win not help UNI?

[superman7515]

I think it is a little of both. When you play a team, regardless of the outcome, that other team has a strength computed by who they play and how well they have done ALL YEAR, including your team's game with them. But your team's impact on the other teams rankings is only 1/11 or 1/12 of their strength. The game may be a blow out, but that does not lower, or increase, their strength a huge amount. Obviously the more difference in the ranking between the two the more it will have an impact, if the lower ranked team wins. But if the teams are somewhat close, it should not be a huge impact whether you blow them out or not. Because, 1) it is only one game and 2) on almost all computer ranking systems there is a built in diminishing return for points scored. The difference between blowing out a team by 40-7 or 60-7 will not affect it a great deal.

Blowing out a team has no effect on SOS, but it does affect the other 50% of the SRS, which is the adjusted MOV.

If you beat Team A by 50 and lose to Team B by 10, your adjusted MOV is better than if you beat Team A by 14 and beat team B by 10. Obviously, you would prefer to beat both teams, but the 50% of the SRS that looks at adjusted MOV overvalues blow out victories.

[superman7515]

What do you think I'm saying?

McNeese is now 8-2 with win a win over SHSU...

How does that win not help UNI?

If McNeese is 8-2 is irrelevant to McNeese's SOS. It is the record of the teams you played that matters. If McNeese is 8-2 and SHSU is 10-1, that's good. If McNeese is 8-2 and SHSU is 1-10, that's bad. The 8-2 doesn't matter in the least to McNeese's SOS.

[fmrbearkat]

What do you think I'm saying?

McNeese is now 8-2 with win a win over SHSU...

How does that win not help UNI?

In terms of overall ranking the win absolutely helps but not in strength of schedule! When a team you play loses any game your STRENGTh OF SCHEDULE goes down because that team is percieved weaker than before the loss. Like Supe said by the end of the season it could go back up to better than it was before you played them
but it still is going to be lower than it could have been if they were 12-0. Again talking purely strength of schedule and its only relative to the point that you said blowing out a team helps your strength of schedule. It would not in anyway. UNI's strenght of schedule is based on what your opponents do and not what UNI does.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

UNI's strenght of schedule is based on what your opponents do and not what UNI does.

So let's go further. You, and all your opponents, have FBS teams on the schedule. Those FBS teams have more opportunities to play other FBS teams, which will (in this system) mean they have higher SOS's than any FCS opponents.

So Iowa State goes 2-10, and, say, when the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars, the Cyclones beat Texas. Suddenly, UNI's strength-of-schedule goes up astronomically - way more than if, say, Austin Peay beats, say, South Dakota in their WTF win.

So let's say every team in your conference plays 1 or 2 FBS opponents. In the MVFC's case, this season, it's 11. If those FBS teams go, on average, 3-7 and beat other FBS teams (no matter who they are) their individual SOS's become higher -higher than a team which elects to play all FCS opponents, no matter how good those FCS opponents actually are. When all the teams in a conference's SOS's are higher thanks to FBS teams, then any conference games' SOS becomes higher.

The MVFC this season is the highest-rated conference in terms of "schedule strength" for two reasons: 1) the FBS games and 2) getting lucky in scheduling, getting SeLa and McNeese, and beating them. The FCS games are a factor. But there is no way on God's Green Earth that their SOS using this calculation wouldn't be No. 1 without all those FBS games.

[fmrbearkat]

So let's go further. You, and all your opponents, have FBS teams on the schedule. Those FBS teams have more opportunities to play other FBS teams, which will (in this system) mean they have higher SOS's than any FCS opponents.

So Iowa State goes 2-10, and, say, when the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars, the Cyclones beat Texas. Suddenly, UNI's strength-of-schedule goes up astronomically - way more than if, say, Austin Peay beats, say, South Dakota in their WTF win.

So let's say every team in your conference plays 1 or 2 FBS opponents. In the MVFC's case, this season, it's 11. If those FBS teams go, on average, 3-7 and beat other FBS teams (no matter who they are) their individual SOS's become higher -higher than a team which elects to play all FCS opponents, no matter how good those FCS opponents actually are. When all the teams in a conference's SOS's are higher thanks to FBS teams, then any conference games' SOS becomes higher.

The MVFC this season is the highest-rated conference in terms of "schedule strength" for two reasons: 1) the FBS games and 2) getting lucky in scheduling, getting SeLa and McNeese, and beating them. The FCS games are a factor. But there is no way on God's Green Earth that their SOS using this calculation wouldn't be No. 1 without all those FBS games.

Your IQ is obviously LeHIGHer than mine but it sounds like you are expounding on what I was saying....maybe?

[Stick]

There's nothing that says they won't use it at all this season. As for the info/data, it has been agreed upon, the entire point of a Simple Rating System is that it is simple. It is the teams SOS plus adjusted margin of victory. An SOS of 30 and a MOV of 30 = SRS 60.



Superman: For SOS lower is better. Are you saying that they will rank teams adjusted MOV? Because for MOV higher is better. If you add two ranks you are ok, but not if you add a rank and a rating.

I was hopeful that since the SRS has an adjusted MOV component that it might be more worthwhile than the RPI, but unfortunately based on the listing above it seems quite flawed, at least for now. I could have developed the RPI or something better when I was 10 years old. Not sure why the NCAA is so resistant to using a blend of the MOV and BCS ratings from say Massey and Sagarin. if you are going to go with a formula, why not go with the best? I'll never understand why you'd want to use a simplistic method that produces skewed results instead of a robust method that looks close to what you'd expect.

[robsnotes4u]

Blowing out a team has no effect on SOS, but it does affect the other 50% of the SRS, which is the adjusted MOV.

If you beat Team A by 50 and lose to Team B by 10, your adjusted MOV is better than if you beat Team A by 14 and beat team B by 10. Obviously, you would prefer to beat both teams, but the 50% of the SRS that looks at adjusted MOV overvalues blow out victories.

If I read correctly the limit is 24 points, so, a 24 point win is the same as a 50 point win. There are rules for low point wins also.

Again, just what I remember reading on the calculation of MOV.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[superman7515]

If I read correctly the limit is 24 points, so, a 24 point win is the same as a 50 point win. There are rules for low point wins also.

Again, just what I remember reading on the calculation of MOV.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

A lot of times people do put a limit, but there is no "standard" upper limit, it varies from user to user. I haven't seen what limits the committee is using, so you could very well be correct.

[robsnotes4u]

A lot of times people do put a limit, but there is no "standard" upper limit, it varies from user to user. I haven't seen what limits the committee is using, so you could very well be correct.

Makes sense


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[robsnotes4u]

Some interesting points on SRS

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=37


The numbers it spits out are easy to interpret - if Team A's rating is 3 bigger than Team B's, this means that the system thinks Team A is 3 points better than Team B. With most ranking algorithms, the numbers that come out have no real meaning that can be translated into an English sentence. With this system, the units are easy to understand.

It is a predictive system rather than a retrodictive system - this is a very important distinction. You can use these ratings to answer the question: which team is stronger? I.e. which team is more likely to win a game tomorrow? Or you can use them to answer the question: which of these teams accomplished more in the past? Some systems answer the first questions more accurately; they are called predictive systems. Others answer the latter question more accurately; they are called retrodictive systems. As it turns out, this is a pretty good predictive system. For the reasons described below, it is not a good retrodictive system.

It weights all games equally - every football fan knows that the Colts' week 17 game against Arizona was a meaningless exhibition, but the algorithm gives it the same weight as all the rest of the games.
It weights all points equally, and therefore ignores wins and losses - take a look at the Colts season chart above. If you take away 10 points in week 3 and give them back 10 points in week 4, you've just changed their record, but you haven't changed their rating at all. If you take away 10 points in week 3 and give back 20 points in week 4, you have made their record worse but their rating better. Most football fans put a high premium on the few points that move you from a 3-point loss to a 3-point win and almost no weight on the many points that move you from a 20-point win to a 50-point win.
It is easily imressed by blowout victories - this system thinks a 50-point win and a 10-point loss is preferable to two 14-point wins. Most fans would disagree with that assessment.

It is slightly biased toward offensive-minded teams - because it considers point margins instead of point ratios, it treats a 50-30 win as more impressive than a 17-0 win. Again, this is an assessment that most fans would disagree with.

This should go without saying, but - I'll say it anyway. The system does not take into account injuries, weather conditions, yardage gained, the importance of the game, whether it was a Monday Night game or not, whether the quarterback's grandomother was sick, or anything else besides points scored and points allowed.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[superman7515]

The good thing about "game importance" is that in the FCS, they're all important games. You're trying to get a higher seed or clinch up home field, etc. So it's rare that teams take off an entire game.

[ElCid]

Blowing out a team has no effect on SOS, but it does affect the other 50% of the SRS, which is the adjusted MOV.

If you beat Team A by 50 and lose to Team B by 10, your adjusted MOV is better than if you beat Team A by 14 and beat team B by 10. Obviously, you would prefer to beat both teams, but the 50% of the SRS that looks at adjusted MOV overvalues blow out victories.

There isn't a diminishing return on MOV points? I thought that was part of most of these computer programs. I realize they are all different but seems silly to reward after a certain point against weaker opponents. Basically does not reward teams for running up ridiculous points.