Playoffs 'Til I Die: Projecting the Playoff Field, 11/5/2013

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/765-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-5-2013

Surprisingly, not a single team is in a "win, and they're in" scenario this week. Every team that can win the autobid needs another team to do something in order to punch their tickets.

[Mattymc727]

What do people think of a 7-4 UNH team as a 5th CAA team with wins against Maine, Nova, and JMU. Close losses to CMU and Lehigh on the road.

Personally I say out, but I think the committee likes UNH and the CAA a lot (last year).

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What do people think of a 7-4 UNH team as a 4th CAA team with wins against Maine, Nova, and JMU. Close losses to CMU and Lehigh on the road.

Personally I say out, but I think the committee likes UNH and the CAA a lot (last year).

They'd need to win out to make it. You wonder if they take UNH over an 8-4 Chatty with a D-II win.

[danefan]

They'd need to win out to make it. You wonder if they take UNH over an 8-4 Chatty with a D-II win.

What DII did Chatty play?

[UCMoc]

What DII did Chatty play?

This is the second post I have seen this on. There were no DII's on the Mocs schedule this year.

[Nickels]

I'd take this bracket in a heartbeat.xthumbsupx

[Twentysix]

What DII did Chatty play?

Alabama. lol

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What DII did Chatty play?

Erp.. whoops. Nevermind.

[rokamortis]

I hope if we are 11-1 that we'd do better than a 7 seed.

[DoubleH]

Winning out, with the last win over Maine, would make a pretty compelling bubble argument. It would depend on what everyone else does.

[Fear the Bird]

What do people think of a 7-4 UNH team as a 5th CAA team with wins against Maine, Nova, and JMU. Close losses to CMU and Lehigh on the road.

Personally I say out, but I think the committee likes UNH and the CAA a lot (last year).

You have to keep in mind that this scenario effectively eliminates JMU or creates a JMU-Towson winner-take all scenario. Also, W&M plays UD and Towson still, so a 7-4 (6-2) UNH team effectively becomes the 4th or possibly even 3rd or 2nd CAA team behind Maine and some combo of Towson/UD/W&M/JMU. So, yes I do think a 7-4 UNH team is in. November wins over JMU and Maine would go a long way towards making people forget about the Lehigh loss. Very intriguing that both of those important matchups come in Durham in November.


They'd need to win out to make it. You wonder if they take UNH over an 8-4 Chatty with a D-II win.


No doubt about it that a 7-4 UNH team with wins over Nova, JMU, Maine is in over an 8-4 Chatty team

[danefan]

Erp.. whoops. Nevermind.


Should've said Georgia State. ;)

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think they'll let 5 teams in from any conference, and that'll be a little more clear in a few weeks.

When teams have similar resumes, at least record-wise, it's going to come down to politics, and I just don't see a 5th place big sky/CAA team getting in over a second place OVC/Socon team

[danefan]

I don't think they'll let 5 teams in from any conference, and that'll be a little more clear in a few weeks.

When teams have similar resumes, at least record-wise, it's going to come down to politics, and I just don't see a 5th place big sky/CAA team getting in over a second place OVC/Socon team

The CAA had 5 teams in when the field was only 16......

[Reign of Terrier]

The CAA had 5 teams in when the field was only 16......

that was back when they were split into 2 divisions and not everyone played each other and you would have one or two teams with one or fewer FCS losses and like 2 or 3.

for instance, 2008: JMU: no FCS regular season losses, Richmond 2, Villanova 1, New Hampshire 2 (including an FBS win), Maine 3 (and the controversial one).

their collective regular season records were 10-1, 10-2, 9-2, 9-2, and 8-4 (with the 8-4 being Maine, with losses to the other better teams in the CAA and Iowa, who was roughly 2 TDs away from undefeated that year).

It's not the same sort of comparison because the question isn't a 9-2 team against say, a 7-4 team, but against an 8-3 vs a 7-4 vs a 8-4 vs a 7-5 sort of deal.

[Fear the Bird]

See my post above. CAA will not be in discussion for 5 bids as far too much cannibalization remains down the stretch. I suppose a perfect storm could create a Maine, Towson, UD, W&M, JMU scenario if JMU wins out, UNH loses out and W&M splits UD/Towson but I don't see it as likely

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The more I look at this I see the CAA as either 2, 3, or 4 at-larges. Maine and Towson, barring further collapses, are in. Delaware and W&M are in good shape, but they play each other and can't afford to lose twice. I'd put the chances at 3 at-larges at about 70%.

[WileECoyote06]

Does the NCAA still follow the 400 mile/proximity rule? If so, then wouldn't TSU be matched up with SIU? Also, what about Lafayette and Delaware? These brackets are always hard. xrotatehx


North Dakota State Bracket
Bethune-Cookman @ Eastern Kentucky winner at No. 1 North Dakota State
Lafayette @ Towson at No. 8 Southeastern Louisiana

Maine Bracket
Southern Illinois @ Montana State winner at No. 4 Maine
Duquesne @ Delaware winner at No. 5 Fordham

Eastern Illinois Bracket
Northern Arizona @ McNeese State winner at No. 3 Eastern Illinois
San Diego @ Montana winner at No. 6 Youngstown State

Eastern Washington Bracket
Samford @ Sam Houston State winner at No. 2 Eastern Washington
Tennessee State @ William & Mary winner at No. 7 Coastal Carolina

[kalm]

I don't think they'll let 5 teams in from any conference, and that'll be a little more clear in a few weeks.

When teams have similar resumes, at least record-wise, it's going to come down to politics, and I just don't see a 5th place big sky/CAA team getting in over a second place OVC/Socon team

The best win amongst the 4 OVC at-large contenders is UTM's against a decent Chatty from a very down Southern. The three Southern contenders are equally mediocre in the quality win department. Resume's include things like quality wins, bad losses, and SoS. For example, an 8-4 Southern Utah with a win over FBS USA and either top 10 MSU or top 15 NAU should about be a lock over the #2 from either conference.

[HenZoneNation]

If we lose out...we don't deserve to get in...I see us winning at least 2/3 games we have left.

[MTfan4life]

My question is when is this Simple Ratings System going to be released? Is it just a myth? Will the committee simply keep it hidden even after they use it for selections? In articles when they talked about it at the beginning of the season, it was stated that it'd probably be released sometime around the middle of October. Has anyone else wondered what in the heck this SRS will be?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

My question is when is this Simple Ratings System going to be released? Is it just a myth? Will the committee simply keep it hidden even after they use it for selections? In articles when they talked about it at the beginning of the season, it was stated that it'd probably be released sometime around the middle of October. Has anyone else wondered what in the heck this SRS will be?

It is not at all clear when/if this will be published. I have looked into it, and I'm quite willing to publish them on CSJ, but so far, nothing.

[PAllen]

My question is when is this Simple Ratings System going to be released? Is it just a myth? Will the committee simply keep it hidden even after they use it for selections? In articles when they talked about it at the beginning of the season, it was stated that it'd probably be released sometime around the middle of October. Has anyone else wondered what in the heck this SRS will be?

It's like the FIFA seeding criteria. They'll only release it once they are sure that the results are going to be what they want them to be.

[PAllen]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/765-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-5-2013

Surprisingly, not a single team is in a "win, and they're in" scenario this week. Every team that can win the autobid needs another team to do something in order to punch their tickets.

Doesn't Lehigh win the auto-bid if they win out? I'm sure there are others. Did you just mean that nobody can win the auto-bid this week without help?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Doesn't Lehigh win the auto-bid if they win out? I'm sure there are others. Did you just mean that nobody can win the auto-bid this week without help?

Yes. Originally I thought Coastal was "win, and they're in", but they, too, depend on Presbyterian losing in order to clinch. Lafayette can clinch with a win over Colgate, too, but they also require a Lehigh loss.

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

Now that the CAA teams are beating up on each other, teams find themselves in a must win scenario to make the playoffs. I'm hoping JMU can pull off a victory against UNH this weekend to make things interesting for the committee. JMU would then play SB at home before closing out the season at Towson. It all starts this weekend for the Dukes...not to over look anyone...but winning the next two games and a show down at Towson would be what the Dukes need.

Go Dukes.

[robsnotes4u]

My question is when is this Simple Ratings System going to be released? Is it just a myth? Will the committee simply keep it hidden even after they use it for selections? In articles when they talked about it at the beginning of the season, it was stated that it'd probably be released sometime around the middle of October. Has anyone else wondered what in the heck this SRS will be?

Here is one guys idea of it don't know if it is correct or not.

http://www.footballperspective.com/non-fbs-college-football-ratings-through-10-weeks/

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Fear the Bird]

Here is one guys idea of it don't know if it is correct or not.

http://www.footballperspective.com/non-fbs-college-football-ratings-through-10-weeks/

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Judging by the silliness of these rankings, I assume this is the kind of crap dystopiamembrane is always spouting off?

[robsnotes4u]

Unfortunately that is what we have this year for at least some of the selection procesd

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[birdsflyhigh]

Here's something to chew on as far as strength of schedule. The College Football Ranking Composite site is comprised of 50 different ranking sources, so that's a pretty wide range of data. According to the site a team like Montana, which has the 201st ranked SOS, has a lower SOS than any team in the MVFC. Look it up.

SOS numbers:

NDSU Bison....115
SIU Salukis....123
SDSU Jacks...126
UNI Panthers..129
ISU Redbirds..133
MSU Bears....140
USD Coyotes..145
ISU Sycamores..149
WIU Leathernecks..153
YSU Penguins..160

.........

Montana Grizziies...201 That's a full 40 spots BELOW the lowest SOS ranked MVFC school.

Go check it out. IMHO, think the Grizz might be in for a rude awakening when they travel to the USD Coyotes on Saturday. That game could really show the strength of the MVFC teams.

GO GET 'EM YOTES!

[dbackjon]

Here's something to chew on as far as strength of schedule. The College Football Ranking Composite site is comprised of 50 different ranking sources, so that's a pretty wide range of data. According to the site a team like Montana, which has the 201st ranked SOS, has a lower SOS than any team in the MVFC. Look it up.

SOS numbers:

NDSU Bison....115
SIU Salukis....123
SDSU Jacks...126
UNI Panthers..129
ISU Redbirds..133
MSU Bears....140
USD Coyotes..145
ISU Sycamores..149
WIU Leathernecks..153
YSU Penguins..160

.........

Montana Grizziies...201 That's a full 40 spots BELOW the lowest SOS ranked MVFC school.

Go check it out. IMHO, think the Grizz might be in for a rude awakening when they travel to the USD Coyotes on Saturday. That game could really show the strength of the MVFC teams.

GO GET 'EM YOTES!

Link?

Could have a lot to do with playing a bad DII team instead of an FBS team.

Then again, should a team get much credit for getting smoked by a good FBS team? Beating them, of course. Losing by 40?

[birdsflyhigh]

Go to your browser and type in College Football Composite Ranking, click on that and go to the FCS section. Looking at Montana's SOS, it's low because of playing BSC teams.
Hmmm....go figure. Outside of conference, the Griz played Appy St. and Panhandle St. and now they'll be on the road at the USD Coyotes.

[superman7515]

Here's something to chew on as far as strength of schedule. The College Football Ranking Composite site is comprised of 50 different ranking sources, so that's a pretty wide range of data. According to the site a team like Montana, which has the 201st ranked SOS, has a lower SOS than any team in the MVFC. Look it up.

SOS numbers:

NDSU Bison....115
SIU Salukis....123
SDSU Jacks...126
UNI Panthers..129
ISU Redbirds..133
MSU Bears....140
USD Coyotes..145
ISU Sycamores..149
WIU Leathernecks..153
YSU Penguins..160

.........

Montana Grizziies...201 That's a full 40 spots BELOW the lowest SOS ranked MVFC school.

Go check it out. IMHO, think the Grizz might be in for a rude awakening when they travel to the USD Coyotes on Saturday. That game could really show the strength of the MVFC teams.

GO GET 'EM YOTES!

You're confusing two different things. The composite rankings show their ranking across a wide spectrum of various polls and predictors, some decent and some absolute garbage. But clicking on the team name gives you the Massey SOS, not a composite to come up with some sort of consensus of SOS. While Massey has Youngstown State with a SOS of 160 and Montana at 201, Sagarin shows YSU at 180 and Montana at 160. Massey has North Dakota State with the toughest SOS in the MVFC, Keeper says NDSU has the weakest SOS in the conference.

[dbackjon]

Go to your browser and type in College Football Composite Ranking, click on that and go to the FCS section. Looking at Montana's SOS, it's low because of playing BSC teams.
Hmmm....go figure. Outside of conference, the Griz played Appy St. and Panhandle St. and now they'll be on the road at the USD Coyotes.


FYI - I am not a moderator here, but if I was, I'd delete your post. Posting other's material without linking it is illegal. Please put a flippin link in your original post.

Thank you.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Assuming that the SRS is not ready for prime time, I've thought about doing my own ratings based on a variety of data, but I barely have enough time to do what I do as it is.

[birdsflyhigh]

So because I say some not complimentary toward the BSC, then suddenly I'm on notice. WOW! If anyone's is interested if you go to the Sagarin site, then the SOS for Montana vs. The MVFC works out exactly the same. Only one Valley school has a worse SOS than Montana. Hopefully posting that doesn't get me banned from Any Given Sunday.

I really appreciate this forum, and I was only trying to put some facts out on the table. I sincerely apologize if I didn't understand that I was supposed to post a link.

[dbackjon]

So because I say some not complimentary toward the BSC, then suddenly I'm on notice. WOW! If anyone's is interested if you go to the Sagarin site, then the SOS for Montana vs. The MVFC works out exactly the same. Only one Valley school has a worse SOS than Montana. Hopefully posting that doesn't get me banned from Any Given Sunday.

I really appreciate this forum, and I was only trying to put some facts out on the table. I sincerely apologize if I didn't understand that I was supposed to post a link.

The notice has nothing to do with who you support or don't support, but keeping the website safe.

Any time you copy from another website, you need to link to it.

[birdsflyhigh]

COOL...thanks for the heads up dbackjon xcoolx

[dbackjon]

COOL...thanks for the heads up dbackjon xcoolx

All good. Are you a Illinois State fan?

[birdsflyhigh]

That's good dbackjon. Yes, I'm a Bird fan. I wouldn't have even been posting all this had I thought that the middle six Valley teams had been given their due. Anyhow, back to our regularly scheduled FCS drama...ha ha :)

[dbackjon]

That's good dbackjon. Yes, I'm a Bird fan. I wouldn't have even been posting all this had I thought that the middle six Valley teams had been given their due. Anyhow, back to our regularly scheduled FCS drama...ha ha :)


Good deal - I am originally from Springfield. Brother went to EIU, Sister to SIU

[bojeta]

CSJ still has Cal Poly - Weber State game wrong. Cal Poly did not lose that game, they won 47-0.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

CSJ still has Cal Poly - Weber State game wrong. Cal Poly did not lose that game, they won 47-0.

Thanks - I fixed it. Not sure what happened there.

[Walkon79]

I'd take this bracket in a heartbeat.xthumbsupx

I actually like this one too, assuming of course the Cats don't pull the upset at EWU tomorrow. :)

[NHwildEcat]

What do people think of a 7-4 UNH team as a 5th CAA team with wins against Maine, Nova, and JMU. Close losses to CMU and Lehigh on the road.

Personally I say out, but I think the committee likes UNH and the CAA a lot (last year).

I think that would get us in. With the expanded playoffs and the favorable views on UNH/CAA from the comittee I would think it would get us in. Far from a sure thing, but if Maine wins the autobid and we beat them it sure helps.