SoCon: 1 At-Large or 0 At-Large?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Samford, Chatty, or Wofford will win the AQ.

Chatty could finish at 7-5. That + a Wofford loss to either App or Furman would make them a 0 at-large league. (Samford would win the auto)

Chatty could go 2-1 and win the AQ. That paired with a loss by Samford to Furman would put Samford at 7-5 and Wofford at 7-4. Would seem likely that wouldn't be enough for an at-large.

It seems like the scenarios for the SoCon getting either 1 at-large or 0 at-large bids are about 50/50. And they seem to hinge upon Furman losing to both Samford and Wofford. Thoughts?

[NoDak 4 Ever]

Samford, Chatty, or Wofford will win the AQ.

Chatty could finish at 7-5. That + a Wofford loss to either App or Furman would make them a 0 at-large league. (Samford would win the auto)

Chatty could go 2-1 and win the AQ. That paired with a loss by Samford to Furman would put Samford at 7-5 and Wofford at 7-4. Would seem likely that wouldn't be enough for an at-large.

It seems like the scenarios for the SoCon getting either 1 at-large or 0 at-large bids are about 50/50. And they seem to hinge upon Furman losing to both Samford and Wofford. Thoughts?

but but but. 5th oldest league!

[chattanoogamocs]

Yes, I think if a bunch of SoCon teams end up with only 7 wins, it is doubtful that the conference will get more than the autobid.

[PaladinFan]

but but but. 5th oldest league!

You see App State and Georgia Southern right now? Might be worth remembering even the elite teams pay the piper eventually. I'll put the SoCon's record of success up against any other conferences every day of the week.

[PaladinFan]

Samford, Chatty, or Wofford will win the AQ.

Chatty could finish at 7-5. That + a Wofford loss to either App or Furman would make them a 0 at-large league. (Samford would win the auto)

Chatty could go 2-1 and win the AQ. That paired with a loss by Samford to Furman would put Samford at 7-5 and Wofford at 7-4. Would seem likely that wouldn't be enough for an at-large.

It seems like the scenarios for the SoCon getting either 1 at-large or 0 at-large bids are about 50/50. And they seem to hinge upon Furman losing to both Samford and Wofford. Thoughts?

I may be wrong, but I think Furman can still get the AQ.

If Furman wins out, they will be 6-2 in the SoCon (losses to UTC and Elon). That will make Wofford, at best, 6-2 (losses to Samford and Furman) but would lose the tie breaker to Furman. That scenario also would mean that Samford, at best, would be 6-2 (losses to the Citadel and Furman).

In that scenario, if Furman wins their three remaining SoCon games, the best each of those three could be is 6-2 with Wofford and Samford losing the tiebreaker to Furman due to head to head losses ("In the event of a three way tie, the won-loss record of the tied teams against each other is first considered").

That scenario, of course, will only come to pass if UTC loses to both Samford AND Wofford. That would make the Mocs 5-3 in the SoCon. Furman has to win their games and hope for some help from Samford and Wofford to get the AQ. Not completely unrealistic, actually.

Of course, that's just the AQ. As far as SoCon champs goes, if Furman wins out and UTC loses a game to either Samford or Wofford, you'll be looking at a three-way SoCon champ. There's no way all four teams can finish with identical 6-2 records (I think) as Wofford, Samford, and UTC will knock one of the other out of title contention (provided Sam and Wof both lose to Furman). Even if Furman doesn't win out, you're probably still looking at a 3 way champ provided either Wofford or Samford beats UTC. Again, not completely unrealistic.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I may be wrong, but I think Furman can still get the AQ.

If Furman wins out, they will be 6-2 in the SoCon (losses to UTC and Elon). That will make Wofford, at best, 6-2 (losses to Samford and Furman) but would lose the tie breaker to Furman. That scenario also would mean that Samford, at best, would be 6-2 (losses to the Citadel and Furman).

In that scenario, if Furman wins their three remaining SoCon games, the best each of those three could be is 6-2 with Wofford and Samford losing the tiebreaker to Furman due to head to head losses ("In the event of a three way tie, the won-loss record of the tied teams against each other is first considered").

That scenario, of course, will only come to pass if UTC loses to both Samford AND Wofford. That would make the Mocs 5-3 in the SoCon. Furman has to win their games and hope for some help from Samford and Wofford to get the AQ. Not completely unrealistic, actually.

Of course, that's just the AQ. As far as SoCon champs goes, if Furman wins out and UTC loses a game to either Samford or Wofford, you'll be looking at a three-way SoCon champ. There's no way all four teams can finish with identical 6-2 records (I think) as Wofford, Samford, and UTC will knock one of the other out of title contention (provided Sam and Wof both lose to Furman). Even if Furman doesn't win out, you're probably still looking at a 3 way champ provided either Wofford or Samford beats UTC. Again, not completely unrealistic.

You're right: there are multiple scenarios where Chatty loses out and Furman wins out. Even more interestingly, in a 2- or 3- way tie Furman would own the head-to-head even if Chatty only loses once, since in this scenario they'd own the tiebreakers over Wofford (they'd be 1-1 against each other and it would fall to record vs. Samford, where Furman would own the H2H).

If Samford's in the tiebreak it depends on where Elon, The Citadel, and WCU end up in the conference. If The Citadel beats Elon, Furman will own another tiebreaker in this big mess.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

You see App State and Georgia Southern right now? Might be worth remembering even the elite teams pay the piper eventually. I'll put the SoCon's record of success up against any other conferences every day of the week.

There is something systemically wrong with both of those teams. I get that SS may not be a very good coach but GSU just seems to lack any bit of inspiration on the season. They seem to have done this to themselves. It's puzzling.

[Professor Chaos]

If Chatty beats Wofford and loses to Samford to give Samford the autobid I think even at 8-4 Chatty would be very much in danger of missing the playoffs.

[SpeedkingATL]

In todays watered down expanded playoff system any SoCon team with 8 victories is likely to make the field. With all the head to head matchups and other teams that can play spoiler it remains to be seen if anyone but the autobid will get to 8.

[citdog]

8 wins and you're in

[BEAR]

If the SLC plays it right, they will sneak in three teams. Most likely SLU, SAM and McNeese... which might take away one at large from the Socon.

[chattanoogamocs]

If Chatty beats Wofford and loses to Samford to give Samford the autobid I think even at 8-4 Chatty would be very much in danger of missing the playoffs.

I would say the Mocs would be on the bubble...I said early that if that scenario played out, I would say the Mocs would be about a 70/30 chance of getting in...it really depends then on what other teams in other conferences do...If you are a Moc/SoCon fan, you definitely wouldn't want to see any upsets and/or extra bids going to lower ranked conferences.

Looking right now, I would say the Mocs are about 5-7 teams short of getting in (if the selection was today)...some of those teams will cannibalize each other (just like the SoCon could end up cannibalizing itself with 4 teams still having a shot at the title and pretty much all of them playing each other over the next 3 weeks).

Can't wait for the Mocs senior day this weekend vs Wofford, ought to be a heck of a battle.

[Professor Chaos]

I would say the Mocs would be on the bubble...I said early that if that scenario played out, I would say the Mocs would be about a 70/30 chance of getting in...it really depends then on what other teams in other conferences do...If you are a Moc/SoCon fan, you definitely wouldn't want to see any upsets and/or extra bids going to lower ranked conferences.

Looking right now, I would say the Mocs are about 5-7 teams short of getting in (if the selection was today)...some of those teams will cannibalize each other (just like the SoCon could end up cannibalizing itself with 4 teams still having a shot at the title and pretty much all of them playing each other over the next 3 weeks).

Can't wait for the Mocs senior day this weekend vs Wofford, ought to be a heck of a battle.
That's a fair assessment.

[walliver]

The SoCon get 0 at-large bids in 2003.

Primarily that was due to teams beating each other up every week and Wofford running the table. That was also when there were only 8 at-large bids.

This year's scenario is quite different. If not for three early season OOC losses, Sammy, Chatty and Wofford would be looking good for at-large bids. Even then, the league leaders have performed well in conference. In any other year, three teams playing the 2d week in November with only 1 conference loss would be considered an exceptional year. Even last year, every conference team had at least 2 conference losses. Outside of Birmingham, there seems to be a general malaise among SoCon fans, and the malaise may be moving into Alabama as I speak.

Although I can envision a scenario where there are no at-large bids, I think that is unlikely. I suspect the SoCon gets 1 bid, and if FU will cooperate and start playing badly again, 2 bids.

[PaladinFan]

The SoCon get 0 at-large bids in 2003.

Primarily that was due to teams beating each other up every week and Wofford running the table. That was also when there were only 8 at-large bids.

This year's scenario is quite different. If not for three early season OOC losses, Sammy, Chatty and Wofford would be looking good for at-large bids. Even then, the league leaders have performed well in conference. In any other year, three teams playing the 2d week in November with only 1 conference loss would be considered an exceptional year. Even last year, every conference team had at least 2 conference losses. Outside of Birmingham, there seems to be a general malaise among SoCon fans, and the malaise may be moving into Alabama as I speak.

Although I can envision a scenario where there are no at-large bids, I think that is unlikely. I suspect the SoCon gets 1 bid, and if FU will cooperate and start playing badly again, 2 bids.

I well remember 2003. Furman wasted perhaps the best defense in the last 20 years in the SoCon on an awful offense. The Furman/App game that year in Greenville was a trainwreck. I think that was the same season we lost to Wofford 7-6.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If Furman and Chatty run the table Wofford would be 7-4 and Samford and Furman would be 7-5. Chatty would win the autobid, no at-larges.

If Samford wins the autobid Chatty can go 8-4 but would have only 7 D-I wins. It might not be enough.

[UCMoc]

If Furman and Chatty run the table Wofford would be 7-4 and Samford and Furman would be 7-5. Chatty would win the autobid, no at-larges.

If Samford wins the autobid Chatty can go 8-4 but would have only 7 D-I wins. It might not be enough.

That would be incorrect this year. I know Georgia State seems like a D-III, but they aren't.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

That would be incorrect this year. I know Georgia State seems like a D-III, but they aren't.

True! xlolx I thought they played North Alabama, but I was mistaken. Oops.

[Sir William]

If Furman and Chatty run the table Wofford would be 7-4 and Samford and Furman would be 7-5. Chatty would win the autobid, no at-larges.

Not Correct.

Current standings
Chattanooga: 5-1 (SoCon), 7-2 (overall)...games remaining: Wofford, @Samford, @Alabama
Samford: 4-1 (SoCon), 6-3 (overall)...games remaining: @Furman, Chattanooga, Elon
Wofford: 4-1 (SoCon), 5-3 (overall)...games remaining: @Chattanooga, App State, @Furman
Furman: 3-2 (SoCon), 4-5 (overall)...games remaining: Samford, @WCarolina, Wofford


If Chatty runs remaining SoCon games and loses to Bama...and if Furman wins all remaining games (while Samford and Wofford beat Elon and App State, respectively), the final standings look like this:

Chattanooga: 7-1, 9-3
Furman: 6-2, 7-5 (FU holding H2H over both Sammy and Woffy)
Samford: 5-3, 7-5
Wofford: 5-3, 6-5

In that case, IF the SoCon gets an at-large bid, it goes to the Paladins.



Lots of football still to play, gentlemen...lots of football.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Not Correct.

Current standings
Chattanooga: 5-1 (SoCon), 7-2 (overall)...games remaining: Wofford, @Samford, @Alabama
Samford: 4-1 (SoCon), 6-3 (overall)...games remaining: @Furman, Chattanooga, Elon
Wofford: 4-1 (SoCon), 5-3 (overall)...games remaining: @Chattanooga, App State, @Furman
Furman: 3-2 (SoCon), 4-5 (overall)...games remaining: Samford, @WCarolina, Wofford

If Chatty runs remaining SoCon games and loses to Bama...and if Furman runs remaining games (while Samford and Wofford beat Elon and App State, respectively), the final standings look like this:

Chattanooga: 7-1, 9-3
Furman: 6-2, 7-5 (FU holding H2H over both Sammy and Woffy)
Samford: 5-3, 7-5
Wofford: 5-3, 7-5

In that case, IF the Socon gets an at-large bid, it goes to the Paladins.

Lots of football still to play gentlemen...lots of football.

This sounds like exactly what I was saying, except that at 7-5 Furman doesn't have much of a shot at an at-large (hence my 0 at-large bids).

Furthermore Woffy is playing an 11 game schedule, hence why I put them at 7-4.

[Sir William]

Wofford would actually finish 6-5. See my correction above.

[chattanoogamocs]

True! xlolx I thought they played North Alabama, but I was mistaken. Oops.

Jax State was who played North Alabama this year (UNA lost in 2OT)

[Reign of Terrier]

Eh, I think the Socon will get 3 in this year. Definitely no less than 2. Why? For one, politics, I don't see any other league, namely perhaps the Big Sky (as good as they are) getting something like 4 or 5 teams into the playoffs, when a couple of them have just as many Division one wins as Socon teams.

This happened last year with NAU getting hosed if I'm not mistaken.

For two, the expanded field definitely helps, and you'd be surprised at how many teams will not make the 7 division win threshold. There will be a lot of 7-5 and 8-4 teams at the end of the year, and the 8-4 teams will have a victory over a sub-D1 team. Regardless of how good or bad the socon is, I don't see say, the 4th or 5th place team in the Big Sky or CAA getting a bid over the second or third best team of the Socon respectively.

I'd say things look best for Samford in that they have the most winnable remaining few games with Furman and Elon on the schedule.

Chattanooga has a good shot too in that they have pretty much clinched bubble status. They have 3 games left and if they play respectfully (and still lose) the quality of the teams they've played would be good enough IMO to warrant a playoff spot.

Wofford is probably in the worst shape of those 3. The Gardner webb loss is a killer, and the fact that GSU is evaporating doesn't give us much ethos for quality wins. I would normally say that 7-4 would be good enough for Wofford in a 26 team field, but the lack of quality wins and the GW loss keeps us out. We really can't afford to lose in the next 3 weeks if we want to make the playoffs.

Furman can still make it, but the only way they really can is by winning out and winning the conference. If they finish 7-5, they have a shot, but that would require a cluster **** in the conference standing, which basically boils down to Chattanooga losing one more game. They're not going to get an at large bid with losses to Elon and GW and a double digit loss to Chattanooga. If they beat Wofford/Samford that would be self-refuting in that the quality of the win wouldn't be so good after they lose to Furman (record-wise) if that makes sense.

I would say "Utopian" scenario is 3. We'll get no more than that, and I would say that the only way that would occur is if Wofford won out, Furman loses at some point, and Chattanooga beating Samford, with Samford beating everyone else.

You'd have

Wofford 8-3 (7-1)
Chatty 8-4 (6-2)
Samford 8-4 (6-2)


And yes, this is definitely Wofford homerism in that prediction, but there's really very little chance that the Socon gets three in if Wofford doesn't win the conference, just because Wofford doesn't have a quality win. I could see us getting in, but there's no guarantee. At 7-4, if there's only 25 teams with 7 D-1 wins, wofford gets in no questions asked, but if there's a bundle, and there will be 3-6 I would imagine, it'll be murky waters to travel through.

TL;DR Go Terriers, Just Say No To Furman

[terrierterror84]

I would say the Mocs would be on the bubble...I said early that if that scenario played out, I would say the Mocs would be about a 70/30 chance of getting in...it really depends then on what other teams in other conferences do...If you are a Moc/SoCon fan, you definitely wouldn't want to see any upsets and/or extra bids going to lower ranked conferences.

Looking right now, I would say the Mocs are about 5-7 teams short of getting in (if the selection was today)...some of those teams will cannibalize each other (just like the SoCon could end up cannibalizing itself with 4 teams still having a shot at the title and pretty much all of them playing each other over the next 3 weeks).

Can't wait for the Mocs senior day this weekend vs Wofford, ought to be a heck of a battle.

should be a close game as are all Wofford/Chatty games.
I think if Wofford wins then Chatty still gets in with a win over Samford. Wofford has to run the table imo

problem is that a possible at-large team from the socon will have won the majority of their games against teams with losing records and that may not sit well with a selection crew

[terrierterror84]

If Furman and Chatty run the table Wofford would be 7-4 and Samford and Furman would be 7-5. Chatty would win the autobid, no at-larges.

If Samford wins the autobid Chatty can go 8-4 but would have only 7 D-I wins. It might not be enough.

if chatty and furman run the table then chatty WILL be the only socon rep and will probably be on the road

[Sir William]

If both Chatty and Furman win the rest of their SoCon games, Chatty wins the conference while Furman finishes alone in second, holding both H2H advantages over Sammy and Woffy and having an equal or better overall record than either of them (Sammy at 7-5, Woffy at 6-5). Granted, Furman would be 7-5, but 5-1 over their last six games (the only loss coming to LSU in the bayou on a Saturday night). With a 24-team playoff field and the real possibility of conference cannibalization going on elsewhere, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Paladins would get an at-large bid...in fact, I'd say it's a decent-to-good possibility.

Lots of things have to happen, but don't write the Paladins off quite yet. Stranger bids have been extended.

Man, I wish we could get that Elon game back!

[Lehigh'98]

Chatty and Furman seem to be playing the best ball right now. Will be interesting to see how things shake out.

[Saint3333]

I predict if there is only one 8 win SoCon team that a 7 win SoCon team makes the playoffs. There are 24 spots now.

Big Sky 5
Big South 2
CAA 5
MEAC 1
MVC 3
NEC 1
OVC 3
Patriot 1
Southland 3

Above are the max number of bids from each conference which adds up to 24. Big Sky, Big South, MVC, OVC, or Southland could easily receive one fewer bid. The only thing keeping the SoCon from an at-large bid will be a MEAC AND a Patriot receiving two at-large bids. I also predict a minimum of two 7 win teams make the field.

Also who is on the committee this year? Last year Cobb was the chair, I could see him throwing a SoCon member a bone before we walk out the door.

[walliver]

I predict if there is only one 8 win SoCon team that a 7 win SoCon team makes the playoffs. There are 24 spots now.

Big Sky 5
Big South 2
CAA 5
MEAC 1
MVC 3
OVC 3
Patriot 1
Southland 3

Above are the max number of bids from each conference which adds up to 23. Big Sky, MVC, OVC, or Southland could easily receive one fewer bid. The only thing keeping the SoCon from an at-large bid will be a MEAC AND a Patriot receiving two at-large bids. I also predict a minimum of two 7 win teams make the field.

You left out the mighty Pioneer champion.

Therefore you have the 23 spots you listed
+
Pioneer Champion
+
SoCon auto bid
= 25 (and please don't give the NCAA any ideas)

[NoDak 4 Ever]

You left out the mighty Pioneer champion.

Therefore you have the 23 spots you listed
+
Pioneer Champion
+
SoCon auto bid
= 25 (and please don't give the NCAA any ideas)

Drop a MVFC bid. Would take a miracle to see 3.

[Reign of Terrier]

Correction: I really don't see how Furman makes the playoffs unless Chattanooga loses out and Samford loses to Furman and Elon. that's the only way Furman makes the playoffs.

The standings would be
Furman 7-5 (6-2)
Wofford 6-5/7-4 (5-3/6-2)
Chattanooga 7-5 (5-3)
Samford 7-5 (5-3)

Basically, anyone who finishes below Furman in the standings won't make the playoffs because the prerequisite of that would be having a maximum of having only 7 wins, IE bear minimum and given how weak the socon is this year if that happens, there's just no way.

With all of that said, if Wofford wins out, Chatty beats Samford and so on, at least you could make the case that the socon isn't extremely down, just relatively down, as we would probably get 2-3 in the playoffs with 8 wins, and wofford generally always finishes at about 8-3.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Correction: I really don't see how Furman makes the playoffs unless Chattanooga loses out and Samford loses to Furman and Elon. that's the only way Furman makes the playoffs.

The standings would be
Furman 7-5 (6-2)
Wofford 6-5/7-4 (5-3/6-2)
Chattanooga 7-5 (5-3)
Samford 7-5 (5-3)

Basically, anyone who finishes below Furman in the standings won't make the playoffs because the prerequisite of that would be having a maximum of having only 7 wins, IE bear minimum and given how weak the socon is this year if that happens, there's just no way.

With all of that said, if Wofford wins out, Chatty beats Samford and so on, at least you could make the case that the socon isn't extremely down, just relatively down, as we would probably get 2-3 in the playoffs with 8 wins, and wofford generally always finishes at about 8-3.

Samford only needs to lose to Furman. Then Furman wins the H2H tiebreak against Samford if Furman wins out.

If Furman wins out I think they actually hold all the 2- loss tiebreakers as long as The Citadel beats Elon this weekend.

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/765-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-5-2013

The only hitch is they need Chatty to lose once to Wofford or Samford.

[Reign of Terrier]

Samford only needs to lose to Furman. Then Furman wins the H2H tiebreak against Samford if Furman wins out.

If Furman wins out I think they actually hold all the 2- loss tiebreakers as long as The Citadel beats Elon this weekend.

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/765-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-5-2013

The only hitch is they need Chatty to lose once to Wofford or Samford.

this is a cluster**** officially

[PaladinFan]

I don't know how many times it has happened, but at least twice in the past few years Furman looks back on an untimely loss to Elon as a massive thorn in their playoff hopes. The kingdom for Reese Hannon that day.

[Reign of Terrier]

I predict if there is only one 8 win SoCon team that a 7 win SoCon team makes the playoffs. There are 24 spots now.

Big Sky 5
Big South 2
CAA 5
MEAC 1
MVC 3
NEC 1
OVC 3
Patriot 1
Southland 3

Above are the max number of bids from each conference which adds up to 24. Big Sky, Big South, MVC, OVC, or Southland could easily receive one fewer bid. The only thing keeping the SoCon from an at-large bid will be a MEAC AND a Patriot receiving two at-large bids. I also predict a minimum of two 7 win teams make the field.

Also who is on the committee this year? Last year Cobb was the chair, I could see him throwing a SoCon member a bone before we walk out the door.

my calculations are different as the MEAC could get 2 with SC state

So,
Big Sky 5
Big South 2
CAA 5
MEAC 2
MVC 2
NEC 1
OVC 3, maybe 4
Patriot is tricky because I'm not sure how that works? Fordham isn't eligible for the standings so does that mean that another team could secure the autobid?
southland 3

so, that could be 25, which doesn't count the socon autobid.

I could see the OVC slipping up and only getting 2, or at the same time getting like 4 in.

I think the best case scenario for the socon as a conference in making the playoffs is having all three of UTC, Samford, and Wofford at 8 wins because I don't see teams with only 7 D1 wins and more than 5 D1 losses getting in over those resumes.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

my calculations are different as the MEAC could get 2 with SC state

So,
Big Sky 5
Big South 2
CAA 5
MEAC 2
MVC 2
NEC 1
OVC 3, maybe 4
Patriot is tricky because I'm not sure how that works? Fordham isn't eligible for the standings so does that mean that another team could secure the autobid?
southland 3

so, that could be 25, which doesn't count the socon autobid.

I could see the OVC slipping up and only getting 2, or at the same time getting like 4 in.

I think the best case scenario for the socon as a conference in making the playoffs is having all three of UTC, Samford, and Wofford at 8 wins because I don't see teams with only 7 D1 wins and more than 5 D1 losses getting in over those resumes.

Fordham will very likely get an at-large with 10 D-I wins. Lehigh almost certainly will need to win out to make it, and if they do they'll win the autobid anyway.

The Patriot League is 99% a 1 autobid + Fordham league.

[SpeedkingATL]

I don't know how many times it has happened, but at least twice in the past few years Furman looks back on an untimely loss to Elon as a massive thorn in their playoff hopes. The kingdom for Reese Hannon that day.

Losing to Elon is on indignity App hasn't experienced since they joined the SoCon. Furman on the other hand.....

[Sir William]

Losing to Elon is on indignity App hasn't experienced since they joined the SoCon. Furman on the other hand.....

xdohx

[Reign of Terrier]

Fordham will very likely get an at-large with 10 D-I wins. Lehigh almost certainly will need to win out to make it, and if they do they'll win the autobid anyway.

The Patriot League is 99% a 1 autobid + Fordham league.

see that's the catch...

[Saint3333]

If they'd go back to 16 it would make this discussion much easier.

The playoffs are like this every year with three games to go, there will be a couple teams that you will be shocked that they don't make the playoffs and a couple team people gave no chance to make them sneak in.

[Saint3333]

If they'd go back to 16 it would make this discussion much easier.

The playoffs are like this every year with three games to go, there will be a couple teams that you will be shocked that they don't make the playoffs and a couple team people gave no chance to make them sneak in. I will miss this part of FCS. But I imagine the same is true for bowl bids.

[Reign of Terrier]

So, just looking over the conference standings:

I could see the Big Sky with only 4 in, SUU has to win 2 of 3, and against MSU and NAU that's a tall order. Montana State has a rough ride as well from here on out and if they don't win out they won't make the playoffs

Charleston Southern may not be a done deal either, but I think they're at 85% with a 5% increase for every game they win from here on out

CAA I think will get 5 in as almost guaranteed.

If SC state wins out they get in at 9-3, with close losses to 2 playoff teams and Clemson; NC A&T may sneak in but I don't consider that likely.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the MVC got 3 in

Patriot gets 2 in because technicalities

OVC could get as many as 4 and as little as 2, I'd say 3

Southland will only get 3.

So, in conclusion, I think the second place Socon team will get in

[Reign of Terrier]

If they'd go back to 16 it would make this discussion much easier.

The playoffs are like this every year with three games to go, there will be a couple teams that you will be shocked that they don't make the playoffs and a couple team people gave no chance to make them sneak in. I will miss this part of FCS. But I imagine the same is true for bowl bids.

I think it's the same for big bowl bids and lower bowl bids for conferences that don't have as many bowl contracts (8-4 Troy didn't get a bowl bid a few years ago for instance)

I kind of like this better than when it was say, 16, because with this setup, it makes conference competition much more entertaining because I think there's a political aspect to it. We saw a bunch of 8-3 teams last year sit at home while you had just as many qualified. You can't finish 5th in a conference like the big sky because the committee will likely take the 2nd place Socon team or 3rd place MVC team before they take the 5th place Big sky team for the sake of diversity.

We saw it last year with 4th place NAU in the big sky and 5th place JMU in the CAA (despite both being ranked) not get in over 2nd place Coastal Carolina.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

So, just looking over the conference standings:

I could see the Big Sky with only 4 in, SUU has to win 2 of 3, and against MSU and NAU that's a tall order. Montana State has a rough ride as well from here on out and if they don't win out they won't make the playoffs

Charleston Southern may not be a done deal either, but I think they're at 85% with a 5% increase for every game they win from here on out

CAA I think will get 5 in as almost guaranteed.

If SC state wins out they get in at 9-3, with close losses to 2 playoff teams and Clemson; NC A&T may sneak in but I don't consider that likely.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the MVC got 3 in

Patriot gets 2 in because technicalities

OVC could get as many as 4 and as little as 2, I'd say 3

Southland will only get 3.

So, in conclusion, I think the second place Socon team will get in

I think the OVC has 3 teams: EIU the autobid, the EKU/Jax State winner, and, assuming they win their last two, TSU. Where they only get two in is if TSU collapses.

I have SIU in as the 3rd team because I think the committee will reward an 8-win team in the tough MVFC. The 3rd team will either be SDSU, IllSt, SIU, or none.

Don't know how you figure 5 CAA teams. I have Maine + 3 at-larges (Delaware, Towson, W&M). Only way UNH makes it is if they run the table and get to 7-4 with a brutal schedule, and even then they still might need help. Only way JMU makes it IMO is if they sweep their games: at 8-4 with a loss to Towson, I don't think it's good enough.

[CID1990]

It's nice to see all the folks so obsessed over the SoCon. There was a time when this thread would have been started by a SoCon fan. It's good to see we have so many converts and acolytes!

Mark it down:

Samford and Wofford will win out. Samford gets the AQ and Wofford gets the at large.

[jmrepak]

I think it's the same for big bowl bids and lower bowl bids for conferences that don't have as many bowl contracts (8-4 Troy didn't get a bowl bid a few years ago for instance)

I kind of like this better than when it was say, 16, because with this setup, it makes conference competition much more entertaining because I think there's a political aspect to it. We saw a bunch of 8-3 teams last year sit at home while you had just as many qualified. You can't finish 5th in a conference like the big sky because the committee will likely take the 2nd place Socon team or 3rd place MVC team before they take the 5th place Big sky team for the sake of diversity.

We saw it last year with 4th place NAU in the big sky and 5th place JMU in the CAA (despite both being ranked) not get in over 2nd place Coastal Carolina.

Not trying to argue your logic, but to clarify CCU got the AQ last year through a 3-way tie-breaker in the Big South Championship. The committee also put in Stony Brook, who was the odds on favorite to win the conference.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the OVC has 3 teams: EIU the autobid, the EKU/Jax State winner, and, assuming they win their last two, TSU. Where they only get two in is if TSU collapses.

I have SIU in as the 3rd team because I think the committee will reward an 8-win team in the tough MVFC. The 3rd team will either be SDSU, IllSt, SIU, or none.

Don't know how you figure 5 CAA teams. I have Maine + 3 at-larges (Delaware, Towson, W&M). Only way UNH makes it is if they run the table and get to 7-4 with a brutal schedule, and even then they still might need help. Only way JMU makes it IMO is if they sweep their games: at 8-4 with a loss to Towson, I don't think it's good enough.

yeah, upon further review (and I probably said this in another thread), I don't think the CAA gets 5. Maybe not the big sky either.

[Reign of Terrier]

Not trying to argue your logic, but to clarify CCU got the AQ last year through a 3-way tie-breaker in the Big South Championship. The committee also put in Stony Brook, who was the odds on favorite to win the conference.

oh thanks, I didn't know/see that.

[Saint3333]

I'm just glad YT and I are having reasonable conversation again he went through a rough patch there for a year or so.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm just glad YT and I are having reasonable conversation again he went through a rough patch there for a year or so.

it's only a rough patch if you disagree with me :P

[chattownmocs]

I think the OVC has 3 teams: EIU the autobid, the EKU/Jax State winner, and, assuming they win their last two, TSU. Where they only get two in is if TSU collapses.

I have SIU in as the 3rd team because I think the committee will reward an 8-win team in the tough MVFC. The 3rd team will either be SDSU, IllSt, SIU, or none.

Don't know how you figure 5 CAA teams. I have Maine + 3 at-larges (Delaware, Towson, W&M). Only way UNH makes it is if they run the table and get to 7-4 with a brutal schedule, and even then they still might need help. Only way JMU makes it IMO is if they sweep their games: at 8-4 with a loss to Towson, I don't think it's good enough.

This is why these projections are meaningless. Why would you assume that a team that just lost 44-0 is going to win their 2 games. While assuming some terrible fate for the Socon. Won't happen. Chattanooga needs one win, Samford needs 2, Wofford needs 2.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

This is why these projections are meaningless. Why would you assume that a team that just lost 44-0 is going to win their 2 games. While assuming some terrible fate for the Socon. Won't happen. Chattanooga needs one win, Samford needs 2, Wofford needs 2.

why would you assume that Chatty would beat a team with a winning record? they haven't done so yet.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think losing 44-0 to an FCS opponent will hurt TSU tremendously.

Also, I think this upcoming game is the biggest game of the season for both Chattanooga and Wofford in that both need to win to have a signature win. Wofford doesn't have that now that GSU has evaporated. Chatty doesn't have it yet as they haven't beaten a team with a winning record either.

For the Socon, wofford winning saturday does more for the socon, but if Chattanooga wins they clinch their first Socon title in a while. Which is kind of a big deal.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

TSU will have to beat a winless team (APSU) and a team hovering around .500 (Murray State) to make it. I think they need to win both. If they lose either, they will be a tough sell, but on the other hand they'll be 8-4 with a win over Jacksonville State. But you can't lose to APSU.

[blueballs]

In the tenth game of the 2000 regular season Furman ran GSU out of Greenville to the tune of 45-10. GSU licked their wounds, regrouped, and then proceeded to win the next 5 in a row to hoist the NC trophy.

The 44-0 loss is just one loss.

[SM/JSU]

I think losing 44-0 to an FCS opponent will hurt TSU tremendously.

Also, I think this upcoming game is the biggest game of the season for both Chattanooga and Wofford in that both need to win to have a signature win. Wofford doesn't have that now that GSU has evaporated. Chatty doesn't have it yet as they haven't beaten a team with a winning record either.

For the Socon, wofford winning saturday does more for the socon, but if Chattanooga wins they clinch their first Socon title in a while. Which is kind of a big deal.

a win will not clinch for chattanooga. they still have to bet samford the following week in birmingham.

[chattownmocs]

a win will not clinch for chattanooga. they still have to bet samford the following week in birmingham.

You are both wrong. We can clinch at least a share with a win and a Samford loss.

[SM/JSU]

You are both wrong. We can clinch at least a share with a win and a Samford loss.

If you lose to samford they will need to lose to elon and even if they do they would have the head to head victory over chatt and wofford. Which would give them soul position.

[SM/JSU]

If you lose to samford they will need to lose to elon and even if they do they would have the head to head victory over chatt and wofford. Which would give them soul position.

Chatt has to beat samford to win the conference.

[Sir William]

Chatt has to beat samford to win the conference.

Samford better worry about beating Furman first.

[UCMoc]

If you lose to samford they will need to lose to elon and even if they do they would have the head to head victory over chatt and wofford. Which would give them soul position.

If that happens, we are going back to a train as our logo, just not the one we had before.

http://frolab.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/STLogo.jpeg

[chattownmocs]

If you lose to samford they will need to lose to elon and even if they do they would have the head to head victory over chatt and wofford. Which would give them soul position.

If they all have the same record they don't have "soul position" they would have the tiebreaker.

[SM/JSU]

Samford better worry about beating Furman first.

Samford will win Saturday. As well as win the socon title.

[SM/JSU]

If they all have the same record they don't have "soul position" they would have the tiebreaker.

Which gives them the top spot as conference champ.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Samford, Chatty, or Wofford will win the AQ.

Chatty could finish at 7-5. That + a Wofford loss to either App or Furman would make them a 0 at-large league. (Samford would win the auto)

Chatty could go 2-1 and win the AQ. That paired with a loss by Samford to Furman would put Samford at 7-5 and Wofford at 7-4. Would seem likely that wouldn't be enough for an at-large.

It seems like the scenarios for the SoCon getting either 1 at-large or 0 at-large bids are about 50/50. And they seem to hinge upon Furman losing to both Samford and Wofford. Thoughts?

With 24 teams I can pretty much guarantee they are getting 1 at-large and may get 2. Just depends on how they finish.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Samford will win Saturday. As well as win the socon title.

That's what I'm projecting.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Furman isn't great but you'd better play better than you did last week.

[MplsBison]

Yes, I think if a bunch of SoCon teams end up with only 7 wins, it is doubtful that the conference will get more than the autobid.

Easy solution: SoCon enacts emergency legislation that declares the team with the best regular season record as ineligible for the SoCon conference title.

Therefore the auto-bid goes to the next team down and the committee has to give an at-large to the best team in the league.


Sounds fair, am I right?

[citdog]

Easy solution: SoCon enacts emergency legislation that declares the team with the best regular season record as ineligible for the SoCon conference title.

Therefore the auto-bid goes to the next team down and the committee has to give an at-large to the best team in the league.


Sounds fair, am I right?


damn yankees

[OL FU]

Samford will win Saturday. As well as win the socon title.

Could be, but I think we have already seen that the SoCon is a little bit of a confusing mess. When in a mess go to something objective like a power rating (not a big fan of them myself but what the heck).

Sagarin has something close to this

Samford 59
Wofford 51
Furman 50
Western 42

With home field advantage at 3 or 4, Sagarin says all the games are within a single score.

Considering Sagarin considers the season as a whole, I would imagine Furman has to be playing better right now than their season rating.

Btw, I didn't think it was allowed to be a fan of both SU and JSUxconfusedx

The sad part of Sagarin is the top SoCon team is a couple touchdown underdog to the top FCS teams in Sagarin.

[Reign of Terrier]

Which gives them the top spot as conference champ.

no, it doesn't work that way. It goes down as a co-championship in the record books, but Samford gets the tie breaker for the automatic bid from the Socon

[SM/JSU]

Could be, but I think we have already seen that the SoCon is a little bit of a confusing mess. When in a mess go to something objective like a power rating (not a big fan of them myself but what the heck).

Sagarin has something close to this

Samford 59
Wofford 51
Furman 50
Western 42

With home field advantage at 3 or 4, Sagarin says all the games are within a single score.

Considering Sagarin considers the season as a whole, I would imagine Furman has to be playing better right now than their season rating.

Btw, I didn't think it was allowed to be a fan of both SU and JSUxconfusedx

The sad part of Sagarin is the top SoCon team is a couple touchdown underdog to the top FCS teams in Sagarin.

Never knew it was not allowed. Especially when you have ties to both.

[SM/JSU]

Who ever gets the auto bid is champion. Anything else is second.

[DoWe]

Who ever gets the auto bid is champion. Anything else is second.

Not according to the rings, but you seem to know quite a bit about it for a newcomer.

[Saint3333]

YT is correct. When arguing on matters of championships it is best to listen to those that have won them.

[T-Dog]

Who ever gets the auto bid is champion. Anything else is second.

Okay, we'll turn in our rings from last year since GaSo got the autobid.

We'll also return our 2007 ones since Wofford got that autobid.

Hey GaSo and Furman, you have to return your 1999 ones since App got the autobid that year.

[PaladinFan]

Okay, we'll turn in our rings from last year since GaSo got the autobid.

We'll also return our 2007 ones since Wofford got that autobid.

Hey GaSo and Furman, you have to return your 1999 ones since App got the autobid that year.

It's a pretty ridiculous argument. I don't know how many SoCon championships have been shared, but it's a bunch.

[OL FU]

Never knew it was not allowed. Especially when you have ties to both.

I was just a joke. Apparently not a good one:(

[SM/JSU]

It's a pretty ridiculous argument. I don't know how many SoCon championships have been shared, but it's a bunch.

Yes politically you can share a championship but from a competitive standpoint who wants to share. For a competitor a championshup without the autobid is like being runner up.

[walliver]

Yes politically you can share a championship but from a competitive standpoint who wants to share. For a competitor a championship without the autobid is like being runner up.

It really doesn't make a difference. Last year the autobid was determined by defensive points allowed (all the other measures failed to break the tie). I don't think that ASU or WC players felt that giving up a few more points than GSU lessened their achievements. Everybody went to the playoffs, had a first round bye and a home game in the second round. The only real difference is that GSU didn't have to play the South Canadians until the semis.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Sharing a championship used to not mean much because every SoCon champion was very likely to make the playoffs. This year, however, there's a good chance that one co-champ wins the autobid and another stays home.

If the SoCon champs have 2 conference losses this is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

[Saint3333]

The odds are in favor of the SoCon getting two in.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The odds are in favor of the SoCon getting two in.

After this week we'll have a much better idea, IMO.

[chattanoogamocs]

Yes politically you can share a championship but from a competitive standpoint who wants to share. For a competitor a championshup without the autobid is like being runner up.

And which NCAA DI team did you compete for?

Because trust me, you're wrong...if your name is at the top of the standing, autobid or not, you are still a champion and no one gives a crap who got the autobid vs an at-large.

[citdog]

except in the case when you BEAT the team that is supposedly tied with you like woffy did with appy several years ago.

[Saint3333]

1992 called.

[citdog]

1992 called.

25-0

[T-Dog]

except in the case when you BEAT the team that is supposedly tied with you like woffy did with appy several years ago.

Not our fault they lost to GSU and Elon that year.

2007 standings.



Appalachian State
5-2
13-2


Wofford
5-2
9-4


Citadel
4-3
7-4


Elon
4-3
7-4


Georgia Southern
4-3
7-4


Furman
4-3
6-5


Chattanooga
2-5
2-9


Western Carolina (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2717/western-carolina-catamounts)
0-7
1-10

[chattownmocs]

Sharing a championship used to not mean much because every SoCon champion was very likely to make the playoffs. This year, however, there's a good chance that one co-champ wins the autobid and another stays home.

If the SoCon champs have 2 conference losses this is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

Completely incorrect. Try again.

[CID1990]

Not our fault they lost to GSU and Elon that year.

2007 standings.



Appalachian State
5-2
13-2


Wofford
5-2
9-4


Citadel
4-3
7-4


Elon
4-3
7-4


Georgia Southern
4-3
7-4


Furman
4-3
6-5


Chattanooga
2-5
2-9


Western Carolina (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2717/western-carolina-catamounts)
0-7
1-10




That was a very disappointing season for us, even though we finished 7-4.

That was the year we were beating GSU in Statesboro, and late in the game our starting Qb went down with an injury. We had to put in our rookie Bart Blanchard, and he wasnt able to move the ball, and GSU scored and that was it.

The next week we played you guys with Bart at the helm and lost big and that pretty much put us out of the running. Bart found his feet the following week and we played spoiler to Elon, beating them by a couple scores. We hung 70 on VMI the week after that, but man I wish we could have had that GSU game back.

[CID1990]

25-0

At The Rock

[Reign of Terrier]

Not our fault they lost to GSU and Elon that year.

2007 standings.



Appalachian State
5-2
13-2


Wofford
5-2
9-4


Citadel
4-3
7-4


Elon
4-3
7-4


Georgia Southern
4-3
7-4


Furman
4-3
6-5


Chattanooga
2-5
2-9


Western Carolina (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2717/western-carolina-catamounts)
0-7
1-10




Jayson Foster and 5 turnovers+the Riddle and Limbo coming out party was the reason.

Still beat Montana though

[cmaxwellgsu]

That was a very disappointing season for us, even though we finished 7-4.

That was the year we were beating GSU in Statesboro, and late in the game our starting Qb went down with an injury. We had to put in our rookie Bart Blanchard, and he wasnt able to move the ball, and GSU scored and that was it.

The next week we played you guys with Bart at the helm and lost big and that pretty much put us out of the running. Bart found his feet the following week and we played spoiler to Elon, beating them by a couple scores. We hung 70 on VMI the week after that, but man I wish we could have had that GSU game back.

When I think of Foster's most impressive runs, that game winner tops the list for me. To me, that was the best GSU-Citadel game.

[cmaxwellgsu]

Sharing a championship used to not mean much because every SoCon champion was very likely to make the playoffs. This year, however, there's a good chance that one co-champ wins the autobid and another stays home.

If the SoCon champs have 2 conference losses this is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

I'd give that about a 1% chance of happening.....

[citdog]

When I think of Foster's most impressive runs, that game winner tops the list for me. To me, that was the best GSU-Citadel game.


i liked the one where Nehemiah Broughton ran the ball right down your throat all day and ruined your homecoming.


WHIP FANNIES!

[CID1990]

When I think of Foster's most impressive runs, that game winner tops the list for me. To me, that was the best GSU-Citadel game.

It was a hell of a football game. We had ya!

[blueballs]

i liked the one where Nehemiah Broughton ran the ball right down your throat all day and ruined your homecoming

WHIP FANNIES!

2003... that loss kept GSU out of the playoffs too.

[Sir William]

Samford will win Saturday. As well as win the socon title.

Nice call. Drive safely back to Birmingham.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

On any normal year Duran Lawson and Andre Roberts could very well be the best offensive tandem in the SoCon. That Citadel team scored 31 points on a ranked Wisconsin team and probably wasn't even in the top 4 in the conference statistically on offense that year. The SoCon had a ridiculous amount of offensive firepower that year....Armanti Edwards, Jayson Foster, Scott Riddle, Terrell Hudgins, Jerome Felton, Danny Romero, and Kevious Johnson. Even UTC and Western had competent playmakers in Antonio Miller and Adam Hearns.

GSU, Elon, and El Cid shot themselves in the foot scheduling sub-DI games that year (all of them finished 7-4). I know all three of those teams were better than at elast some of the at-large teams from 2007.


I still say that is the strongest Southern Conference I've ever seen, and I go back to the late 90s.

[citdog]

Nice call. Drive safely back to Birmingham.


SOLID Southern Baptist smack above!

[chattanoogamocs]

Nice call. Drive safely back to Birmingham.

Interesting to see if SM/JSU fan will disappear like Chattown after an ASU loss? ;)

[Twentysix]

0

[thirdgendin]

The best chance for the SoCon to get an at-large is for Samford to beat UTC next week. A 4-loss Samford, UTC, or Wofford may get an at-large bid, but I don't see a 5-loss Furman team with a shot - the automatic is our one shot.

[PaladinFan]

The best chance for the SoCon to get an at-large is for Samford to beat UTC next week. A 4-loss Samford, UTC, or Wofford may get an at-large bid, but I don't see a 5-loss Furman team with a shot - the automatic is our one shot.

If Furman gets to 7-5, it'll be a toss up. They'll have beaten two likely top 25 teams the final three weeks of the season.

The Elon loss is fairly unforgivable, and GWU less so, even if playing completely decimated at the quarterback position. It's no great sin to lose on the road to LSU, Coastal, and UTC.

[thirdgendin]

If Furman gets to 7-5, it'll be a toss up. They'll have beaten two likely top 25 teams the final three weeks of the season.

The Elon loss is fairly unforgivable, and GWU less so, even if playing completely decimated at the quarterback position. It's no great sin to lose on the road to LSU, Coastal, and UTC.

I wish I shared your optimism. I don't think any team with 5 losses would be considered a toss-up for an at-large selection. You're right in that there's no shame in those three losses, but the other two did happen. I don't believe there is any precedence for a 5-loss team receiving an at-large bid, and although we would have finished very strongly, a poor OOC showing by all SoCon teams doesn't do us any favors.

[PaladinFan]

Anyone know whether games against GSU and App count for the purposes of the SoCon tie breakers?

If they do, it would appear Furman's road to the auto bid would require only (1) Furman to win out and (2) Samford to beat UTC. Despite a potential 7-5 record, Furman owns a number of tie breakers over the other contenders. That is only, of course, if Furman's wins against ASU/GSU count towards these tiebreaker scenarios (I assume they would, as wins and losses against them count in the standings)

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I'd give that about a 1% chance of happening.....

What about now?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Anyone know whether games against GSU and App count for the purposes of the SoCon tie breakers?

If they do, it would appear Furman's road to the auto bid would require only (1) Furman to win out and (2) Samford to beat UTC. Despite a potential 7-5 record, Furman owns a number of tie breakers over the other contenders. That is only, of course, if Furman's wins against ASU/GSU count towards these tiebreaker scenarios (I assume they would, as wins and losses against them count in the standings)

Yes. If Furman wins twice and Chatty loses to Samford, the head-to-head teams in the tiebreak would go 1-1 and then it would fall to Wofford (which would eliminate Samford), then The Citadel (whom they both beat) and then would fall to Georgia Southern (which would eliminate UTC).

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford won't make the playoffs this year.

[eaglewraith]

Yes. If Furman wins twice and Chatty loses to Samford, the head-to-head teams in the tiebreak would go 1-1 and then it would fall to Wofford (which would eliminate Samford), then The Citadel (whom they both beat) and then would fall to Georgia Southern (which would eliminate UTC).

You're talking about a potential 3 way tie with Furman/UTC/Samford correct?

Assuming they're 1-1 against the other 2 teams in the tiebreaker, you can't break the tiebreaker by going down the line and "eliminating" teams one by one. It has to be resolved in one step.

[PaladinFan]

You're talking about a potential 3 way tie with Furman/UTC/Samford correct?

Assuming they're 1-1 against the other 2 teams in the tiebreaker, you can't break the tiebreaker by going down the line and "eliminating" teams one by one. It has to be resolved in one step.

My understanding of the tiebreaker rules is that the next tie breaker beyond head to head would require examining how each team fared against teams with the remaining best records in the conference.

Furman would win that tie breaker because the Paladins have beaten both of the other teams that beat UTC and Samford (the Citadel and GSU) and both of those teams (the Citadel and GSU) are going to finish the season higher in the standings than the other team Furman lost to (Elon).

[Lehigh Football Nation]

My understanding of the tiebreaker rules is that the next tie breaker beyond head to head would require examining how each team fared against teams with the remaining best records in the conference.

Furman would win that tie breaker because the Paladins have beaten both of the other teams that beat UTC and Samford (the Citadel and GSU) and both of those teams (the Citadel and GSU) are going to finish the season higher in the standings than the other team Furman lost to (Elon).

Right. The combinations below the 3-way tie, however it would shake out, would always favor Furman.

They'd also owe some Christmas cards to the commish for having GSU/ASU count as conference members.

[superman7515]

The odds are definitely closer to 0 than to 1 right now.

[SM/JSU]

Samford is here and yes we are happy to be home. Playoffs bound.

[Reign of Terrier]

If Furman wins saturday, I actually could see 3 in....that's different from what I was saying a few weeks ago, but 2 teams at 8-4 and one at 7-5 ain't bad.

[UNHWildcat18]

I know they are most likely going to have a 3 way tie but I don't see them getting more than 2 bids, idk why.

[PaladinFan]

I know they are most likely going to have a 3 way tie but I don't see them getting more than 2 bids, idk why.

Much depends on the rest of the country, I think. It wouldn't shock me either way, really. I've been surprised often with committee selections.