NEC AQ scenarios

[aceinthehole]

NEC Standings
Duquesne (3-1)
Central Conn. St. (2-1)
Robert Morris (2-1)
Bryant (2-2)
Sacred Heart (2-2)
St. Francis (1-2)
Wagner (1-4)

Favorites
Duquesne (@ SHU, vs. CCSU) - Win both games and the Dukes win the AQ.
CCSU (vs. RMU, at Duq, vs. Bryant) - Win all 3 games and the Blue Devils win the AQ.

Needs Help
RMU (@ CCSU, vs. SHU, @ SFU) - Must win 3 games, PLUS needs DUQ to lose 1 game
Bryant (vs. SFU, @ CCSU) - Must win both games, PLUS need DUQ and RMU to each lose at least 1 game each
SHU (vs. Duq, @ RMU) - Must win both games, PLUS needs CCSU and SFU to each lose 1 game each
SFU (@ Bryant, vs. Wag, vs. RMU) - Must win 3 games, PLUS needs DUQ and CCSU to lose 2 games each

[JMUNJ08]

Not a great year for the NEC. Lots of so/so teams that have not shown much OOC or the ability to pull away so far within. The AQ will be underwhelming and taking a trip somewhere in week 1...

[aceinthehole]

Not a great year for the NEC. Lots of so/so teams that have not shown much OOC or the ability to pull away so far within. The AQ will be underwhelming and taking a trip somewhere in week 1...

Agreed. Much like the PL

[Engineer86]

My local pub owner so a CCSU guy so I am pulling for them. Won a few beer off him the past two years.

[blackbeard]

You should always have to win out to win the conference and the AQ. SHU v Duquesne is a huge match up this week toward determining the AQ. RMU's win over Bryant Saturday was big for SHU - I think if SHU wins out they are going to be in good shape, just don't see CCSU or SFU winning all 3 remaining games.

[DFW HOYA]

At the beginning of the year, Georgetown losing to Wagner by 7 didn't seem like such a bad loss. Then came Wagner hosting Merrimack.

[aceinthehole]

You should always have to win out to win the conference and the AQ. SHU v Duquesne is a huge match up this week toward determining the AQ. RMU's win over Bryant Saturday was big for SHU - I think if SHU wins out they are going to be in good shape, just don't see CCSU or SFU winning all 3 remaining games.

The NEC is very hard to read, but right now, I wouldn’tpredict outside of the 1-loss teams (Duq/CCSU/RMU) winning the AQ.

Of course, this could all change after next week withSHU/Duq and CCSU/RMU being very pivotal games.

As for CCSU, the offense is hitting its stride and is probably the best in the NEC. If only the defensecan hold their own, I wouldn’t pick against the Blue Devils.

[aceinthehole]

At the beginning of the year, Georgetown losing to Wagner by 7 didn't seem like such a bad loss. Then came Wagner hosting Merrimack.

Watch CCSU roll them last week. From what was said, Wagner is very young. They lost a ton from last year's team. Plus the Seahawks have no QB - I think they have played 4 or 6 different kids behind center.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Go CCSU - bring up that schedule strength of Lehigh. That is all :D

[aceinthehole]

Go CCSU - bring up that schedule strength of Lehigh. That is all :D
LFN - Unfortunately, the NEC isn’t helping the PL strength of schedule at all this year.

CCSU lost too many games by huge margins (HC, URI, SHU) to make us a “noteworthy win,” even if we do end up winning the NEC AQ.

At this point, I doubt SHU wins the NEC AQ, but even if they did, the Pioneers will not be a “quality loss” for the at-large resumes ofBucknell or Lafayette.

Outside of Fordham, the quality and parity in both leagues did not help either league's national standing. However, I am rooting for another first round matchup of the NEC and PL auto- qualifiers. I doubt it happens, but it is both league’s best chance at a win.

[DFW HOYA]

Watch CCSU roll them last week. From what was said, Wagner is very young. They lost a ton from last year's team. Plus the Seahawks have no QB - I think they have played 4 or 6 different kids behind center.

Sounds like a preview of the Hoyas in 2014. Georgetown loses 24 seniors, 21 of whom are (or were) on the two deep this season.

I do think Wagner will be much improved next season, however.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

LFN - Unfortunately, the NEC isn’t helping the PL strength of schedule at all this year.

CCSU lost too many games by huge margins (HC, URI, SHU) to make us a “noteworthy win,” even if we do end up winning the NEC AQ.

At this point, I doubt SHU wins the NEC AQ, but even if they did, the Pioneers will not be a “quality loss” for the at-large resumes ofBucknell or Lafayette.

Outside of Fordham, the quality and parity in both leagues did not help either league's national standing. However, I am rooting for another first round matchup of the NEC and PL auto- qualifiers. I doubt it happens, but it is both league’s best chance at a win.

The best possibility for this would be Lafayette winning the AQ and CCSU winning the NEC. That may set up a CCSU@Lafayette 1st round game. But I doubt it. Much more likely would be Lafayette@Delaware and, say, CCSU@William and Mary if that happened.

If Lehigh wins out I don't think they would send CCSU there for a second game. But I could see Bryant, Duq, RMU getting sent to Lehigh in that instance.

[blackbeard]

LFN - Unfortunately, the NEC isn’t helping the PL strength of schedule at all this year.

CCSU lost too many games by huge margins (HC, URI, SHU) to make us a “noteworthy win,” even if we do end up winning the NEC AQ.

At this point, I doubt SHU wins the NEC AQ, but even if they did, the Pioneers will not be a “quality loss” for the at-large resumes ofBucknell or Lafayette.

Outside of Fordham, the quality and parity in both leagues did not help either league's national standing. However, I am rooting for another first round matchup of the NEC and PL auto- qualifiers. I doubt it happens, but it is both league’s best chance at a win.

SHU takes Duquesne and RMU out of the discussion if they beat both the next 2 weeks. CCSU has to beat the same 2 teams and Bryant to get there, just don't see that happening.

[Nova09]

So a bunch of teams will be 4-2 and crazy tiebreakers will ensue. Got it.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

How does the tiebreaker work? There's a real good chance this heads to a tiebreaker.

[downbythebeach]

a 4-2 team will go to the playoffs

[Lehigh'98]

a 4-2 team will go to the playoffs

That's ok, the Patriot League is damn close to sending a 4-7 Laf squad to the playoffs.

[rmutv]

Updated after today:

NEC Standings
Robert Morris (3-1)
Sacred Heart (3-2)
Duquesne (3-2)
Central Conn. St. (2-2)
St. Francis (2-2)
Bryant (2-3)
Wagner (1-4)

Favorite
RMU (vs. SHU, @ SFU) - Win both games and RMU wins the AQ.

Needs Help
SHU (@ RMU) - Must win vs. RMU, PLUS needs SFU to lose.
Duquesne (vs. CCSU) - Dukes must win, PLUS have SHU lose to RMU AND RMU then lose to SFU
SFU (vs. Wag, vs. RMU) - Must win both games, PLUS needs DUQ and CCSU to lose

REALLY, REALLY MURKY
CCSU (at Duq, vs. Bryant) - Win both games, PLUS either RMU beats SHU AND loses to SFU OR RMU loses twice. By my math, in first scenario, CCSU and RMU would share NEC title at 4-2 but Robert Morris would get AQ by virtue of tiebreaker (head-to-head). In second scenario, CCSU and SHU would share NEC title at 4-2 and SHU would get AQ via tiebreaker (head-to-head). BUT, there's a third scenario, where CCSU wins out, SFU wins out, and RMU beats SHU but falls to SFU. In that scenario, CCSU, RMU and SFU would all be 4-2 with 1-1 records against each other. Not sure what tiebreaker would be from there.

By my calculations, Wagner and Bryant have been mathematically eliminated.

[downbythebeach]

If Duquesne wins next week, and RMU beat SHU then Duquesne wraps up the autobid, yes?

[rmutv]

If Duquesne wins next week, and RMU beat SHU then Duquesne wraps up the autobid, yes?

Duquesne is behind Robert Morris. To get the autobid, Duquesne MUST have the following happen:
- Beat CCSU
- Robert Morris beats Sacred Heart.
- Robert Morris loses to St. Francis

If Robert Morris, Central, and Wagner all win this week, RMU gets the autobid no matter what happens in the final week.