Playoffs 'Til I Die: Projecting the Playoff Field, 10/29/2013

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/763-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-10-29-2013

xthumbsupx

[kalm]

Good stuff.

[Tealblood]

Good stuff but we play Charlotte in Conway this wknd

[GATA_OneMoreTime]

I'm not sure I see UTC getting in ahead of Wofford. We'll see though.

[HenZoneNation]

With 6 wins and two winnable games left, Delaware should have the 8 wins I think they need to get in. The new staff certainly couldn't ask for a better situation. That being said...who the hell knows which Delaware team will show up for the remainder of the season.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

With 6 wins and two winnable games left, Delaware should have the 8 wins I think they need to get in. The new staff certainly couldn't ask for a better situation. That being said...who the hell knows which Delaware team will show up for the remainder of the season.

Unless Delaware has quite a few WTF games left in them, their schedule seems to dictate making the playoffs and a mortal lock (should they make it) of hosting a 1st round game.

[superman7515]

Are you intentionally ignoring the regionalization in the first round just to give an example or is this how you think it would be? Just asking because I thought San Diego/Northern Arizona would be closer.
San Diego/Northern Arizona (home team is whichever, I'm not listing them in any order)
Chattanooga/Tennessee State
Sam Houston St/Montana
Southern Illinois/Montana St
Bryant/New Hampshire
Villanova/Colgate
and then the leftovers...
Samford/Towson or Samford/Delaware
Bethune-Cookman/Delaware or Bethune-Cookman/Towson

[mainejeff]

I'd love to see Maine as a 4 seed.......personally, I think that is where they will max out even if they go 11-1.

[DetroitFlyer]

Both Marist and Dayton should have better rated OOC schedules than USD.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Are you intentionally ignoring the regionalization in the first round just to give an example or is this how you think it would be? Just asking because I thought San Diego/Northern Arizona would be closer.
San Diego/Northern Arizona (home team is whichever, I'm not listing them in any order)
Chattanooga/Tennessee State
Sam Houston St/Montana
Southern Illinois/Montana St
Bryant/New Hampshire
Villanova/Colgate
and then the leftovers...
Samford/Towson or Samford/Delaware
Bethune-Cookman/Delaware or Bethune-Cookman/Towson

I actually think this type of setup is how it will be, and though I made an attempt at some level of regionalization I don't think it's the be-all and end-all of setting up the matchups.

I did in the back of my mind try to figure out which schools were more likely to bid for games (Delaware, Montana State, Towson, Montana, Tennessee State, SHSU, BCU) and then try to make the games happen like that. Some teams are unlikely to pursue home games (Colgate, Bryant, New Hampshire.)

If San Diego makes it, how awesome would it be if they hosted, incidentally? xthumbsupx

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Both Marist and Dayton should have better rated OOC schedules than USD.

Though not a perfect "schedule strength" comparison, Sag has San Diego's ranked slightly higher than the others.

188 San Diego AA = 44.43 5 3 38.46( 233)
204 Dayton AA = 41.55 6 2 34.35( 244)
209 Marist AA = 40.98 5 3 32.44( 247)
219 Butler AA = 38.10 6 3 35.55( 241)
242 Mercer AA = 26.26 7 1 25.63( 252)

The NCAA has not made their SRS ratings public, and I don't know if there's any plan to do so. About all that can be said is if SRS is the tiebreaker, Mercer will not win the autobid since they have played down so much this season.

Dayton's best chance to qualify, to me, involves winning out, and Marist slipping against Jacksonville, Campbell or Mercer. If San Diego loses again, Marist will own all the head-to-head tiebreakers with the teams if they win out.

So my prediction is based on Butler and San Diego winning out, Dayton, Marist, and Mercer all losing once, and San Diego winning the tiebreaker based on head-to-head with Butler.

[thirdgendin]

Why does he say that Chattanooga is "technically (sic)" 4-0? Unless something has changed and I've missed it, the loss to Georgia Southern counts the same as any other conference game. GSU and ASU are ineligible for the title, but those games count.

[WileECoyote06]

NCCU hosts Bethune-Cookman in Durham this Saturday; not the other way around.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I appreciate everyone pointing out these things. I'll do my best to fix the SoCon standings and project.

IMO I find it ridiculous that Georgia Southern and App are counted as conference wins.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Why does he say that Chattanooga is "technically (sic)" 4-0? Unless something has changed and I've missed it, the loss to Georgia Southern counts the same as any other conference game. GSU and ASU are ineligible for the title, but those games count.

Check it again - I fixed it.

Incidentally, I do see that possibility that Furman sneaks into the picture by winning out. I'll wait until next week to flesh that out, though.

[Twentysix]

I'd love to see Maine as a 4 seed.......personally, I think that is where they will max out even if they go 11-1.

Who do you see as

1.
2.
3.
4. Maine

I would say probably

1. NDSU
2. EIU
3. Maine
4. Fordham

[dbackjon]

In your Big Sky scenario, NAU would have the leg up, not Sac State, since NAU beat Sac State

[Lehigh Football Nation]

In your Big Sky scenario, NAU would have the leg up, not Sac State, since NAU beat Sac State

I added a clarification to this. Thanks for pointing it out.

[Pards Rule]

Wow - never been to Montana. Maybe this is the year???

[dbackjon]

Wow - never been to Montana. Maybe this is the year???

If that is the way it plays out, you MUST go - great fans, you will be treated great, get drinks bought, Grizo will give you a new fleshlight, Grizza will give you elk jerky

[Pards Rule]

If that is the way it plays out, you MUST go - great fans, you will be treated great, get drinks bought, Grizo will give you a new fleshlight, Grizza will give you elk jerky

Well sounds great. Actually a very good friend of mine lives in Portland Oregon and used to be the National Oil Accounts Mgr for Hanna Autowash Systems (my first employer!) is a huge Bobcat fan! Perhaps I can get him to revisit Big Sky land!

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Well sounds great. Actually a very good friend of mine lives in Portland Oregon and used to be the National Oil Accounts Mgr for Hanna Autowash Systems is a huge Bobcat fan! Perhaps I can get him to revisit Big Sky land!

Duly noted - Pards Rule is already booking his flight to Montana. This will be good LU bulletin board fodder... xlolx

[mainejeff]

If that is the way it plays out, you MUST go - great fans, you will be treated great, get drinks bought, Grizo will give you a new fleshlight, Grizza will give you elk jerky

Montana is awesome.......as is McNeese State.........both great places to see playoff football with lots of hospitality.

[Pards Rule]

Duly noted - Pards Rule is already booking his flight to Montana. This will be good LU bulletin board fodder... xlolx

Oh boy! Not quite! LFN, I'm not fool JUST exploring my options should they come about. Too many heartbreaks in the past!

[superman7515]

Maybe they can let the PL champion play at Fordham. I mean, Fordham is 0-0 in the conference standings, so obviously it wasn't a conference game, merely a scheduling agreement.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Maybe they can let the PL champion play at Fordham. I mean, Fordham is 0-0 in the conference standings, so obviously it wasn't a conference game, merely a scheduling agreement.

If Lehigh runs the table, there is nothing I'd like better than heading back to Fordham for the "do-over" game.

[caribbeanhen]

Good stuff.

What he said

[ngineer]

Pretty good....and some 'motivation' for the boys in Brown.

[Pard4Life]

If Lehigh runs the table, there is nothing I'd like better than heading back to Fordham for the "do-over" game.

You're right, Fordham would like a do-over... their margin of victory wasn't big enough.

[MSUBobcat]

If Lehigh runs the table, there is nothing I'd like better than heading back to Fordham for the "do-over" game.

xrolleyesx xlolxxlolx Bucknell (3-4) 48, Lehigh (with starting QB, for part of the game) 10. You are ridiculousLeHigh!