Good Wins/Bad Losses - Week 9

[superman7515]

Here's the latest update:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdDd2amhTd05oRTZIc2EyNS1QUmFfW Hc&usp=sharing

Continuing to tweak the information. Last week I added the Next 5, New This Week, and Dropped Out columns to the tabs. This week I added the Biggest Risers to the Good Wins sheet and the Biggest Drops to the Bad Losses sheets.

Keep in mind that you have to be far enough down to rise up, or high enough up to drop down. If #2 beats #1, you can only go up one spot, whereas #120 beating #1 would leave a lot more room. So just because a team had a lot of movement is not meant in any way to be construed that it was the biggest win or loss.

[chattanoogamocs]

I enjoy this and appreciate the work you have done.

But tell us again...what are the dividing lines between good wins and bad losses?

[superman7515]

The top 1/3 (42 teams) of all FCS teams are Good Wins.
The middle 1/3 (43 teams) of all FCS teams are not a Good Win, but they aren't a Bad Loss either.
The bottom 1/3 (42 teams) of all FCS teams are Bad Losses.

EDIT - Any FBS team that doesn't rank higher than the last Good Win team (any FBS team that ranks lower than #42) does not count as a Good Win, they just go into the Other FBS Wins column. No reason that Georgia State should count as a better win than Holy Cross.

[chattanoogamocs]

No reason that Georgia State should count as a better win than Holy Cross.

I have no argument with that. I think Georgia State's record would be just as bad in the CAA as it is in the SBC this year.

[Fear the Bird]

The top 1/3 (42 teams) of all FCS teams are Good Wins.
The middle 1/3 (43 teams) of all FCS teams are not a Good Win, but they aren't a Bad Loss either.
The bottom 1/3 (42 teams) of all FCS teams are Bad Losses.

EDIT - Any FBS team that doesn't rank higher than the last Good Win team (any FBS team that ranks lower than #42) does not count as a Good Win, they just go into the Other FBS Wins column. No reason that Georgia State should count as a better win than Holy Cross.

Why is UConn listed as a good win for Towson?

[LehighU11]

Why is UConn listed as a good win for Towson?
Towson's 15 point win over UConn on the road is more impressive than Delaware's win at home vs. JMU...

[Fear the Bird]

Towson's 15 point win over UConn on the road is more impressive than Delaware's win at home vs. JMU...

Completely irrelevant and barking up the wrong tree here I far from a Delaware apologist

[superman7515]

Because UConn ranks higher than the #42 team in the FCS. There are FCS teams ranked higher than them, but if they were in the FCS, they would be considered a Good Win.

[HensRock]

Towson's 15 point win over UConn on the road is more impressive than Delaware's win at home vs. JMU...


Do they actually TEACH Ad Hominem arguing at Lehigh? I swear it must be a required course there.

[Grizzlies82]

The top 1/3 (42 teams) of all FCS teams are Good Wins.
The middle 1/3 (43 teams) of all FCS teams are not a Good Win, but they aren't a Bad Loss either.
The bottom 1/3 (42 teams) of all FCS teams are Bad Losses.

EDIT - Any FBS team that doesn't rank higher than the last Good Win team (any FBS team that ranks lower than #42) does not count as a Good Win, they just go into the Other FBS Wins column. No reason that Georgia State should count as a better win than Holy Cross.

Superman, I noticed five teams are showing a "Good Win" over Missouri State. So I looked them up their record.
Not picking a fight, but how in the heck is beating Missouri State, a 3-6 team, still considered a "Good" win?

[superman7515]

Their SOS is way up there, you can thank the MVFC for that. I doubt you were half as surprised as I was though, haha. Even though they have six losses, they don't have a single bad loss thanks to the fact they have played 15% of the Top 42. Iowa would be a Top 42 team (Top 1/3 = Good Win) but I'm not including them, which just makes their SOS even stronger. Murray State, Central Arkansas, South Dakota, and North Dakota State are all Top 42 teams. And of their three wins they have Illinois State and North Dakota State which are both Top 42 teams. And their win over Western Illinois isn't a "bad" team even though they only have three wins because, again, their losses are to two FBS teams and four teams in the Top 42. The MVFC, top to bottom, is very strong and it's showing up as quite different than a team that is 3-6 in the Pioneer League. Not everything that I use takes SOS into consideration, but as an example to show that I'm not throwing out something that is completely out of touch, Sagarin has Missouri State as #25 in the country.

[Tealblood]

Teams in grey/white are still capable of reaching 7 wins ???

good stuff

[superman7515]

Yeah, the grey/white was originally just to help delineate between teams since it was hard to follow without something to help separate them. Once teams started getting to 7 D1 wins or to the point where they couldn't get 7 D1 wins, then it started being less of an issue.

[Trumpster]

I note that North Dakota is new on the list for bad losses, however it appears like you have not yet added their wins to other's bad losses column though.

[LehighU11]

Do they actually TEACH Ad Hominem arguing at Lehigh? I swear it must be a required course there.

Not arguing, just comparing a couple of CAA teams, Towson and UD, with the same conference record and wins against top-third of FCS caliber teams (UConn and JMU). But yes, that is a first year requirement xthumbsupx

[superman7515]

I note that North Dakota is new on the list for bad losses, however it appears like you have not yet added their wins to other's bad losses column though.

Thanks for the heads up. I'll go back in before lunch and add those on.

[MSU_77]

This is very good, solid analysis. All of your analysis, including How They Fared, is very helpful. Thanks.

[msupokes1]

Great job as always. I was wondering about DII's as well. I know there are some DII wins out there that are better than some of the FCS wins. West Alabama who McNeese beat (not by much but it was a win), according to Massey they would be ranked 35th in FCS right now. I wonder if there are some of the other FCS teams that had wins over DII teams like that.

[superman7515]

I don't give "good wins" for D2 teams because there just weren't enough independent sources ranking D2 teams. Part of this is my own, but I unabashedly admit to using the work of others as well so as not to allow my own biases, or those of any one individual/system/ranking, to weight too heavily on the rankings. There simply weren't enough reliable sources for me to continue on to D2. Then that leads to the SWAC/PFL fans asking why D3/NAIA teams weren't ranked and reliable rankings there are like water in the desert. It's not perfect, I freely admit that, but I don't think it's completely out of left field either.

[mainejeff]

Good....bad....or otherwise.........just win baby!!!

[Tealblood]

Interesting note the vaunted socon has no "good wins"

who is in your rating the highest ranked socon team

[superman7515]

I don't have the full version with me at work, but if I recall correctly, Samford was the only SoCon team to make the Top 25. I believe Georgia Southern was right on the edge (they may have been in, may have been out, can't recall off hand) last week, but the loss to Appalachian State dropped them way down.

[Grizzlies82]

Their SOS is way up there, you can thank the MVFC for that. I doubt you were half as surprised as I was though, haha. Even though they have six losses, they don't have a single bad loss thanks to the fact they have played 15% of the Top 42. Iowa would be a Top 42 team (Top 1/3 = Good Win) but I'm not including them, which just makes their SOS even stronger. Murray State, Central Arkansas, South Dakota, and North Dakota State are all Top 42 teams. And of their three wins they have Illinois State and North Dakota State which are both Top 42 teams. And their win over Western Illinois isn't a "bad" team even though they only have three wins because, again, their losses are to two FBS teams and four teams in the Top 42. The MVFC, top to bottom, is very strong and it's showing up as quite different than a team that is 3-6 in the Pioneer League. Not everything that I use takes SOS into consideration, but as an example to show that I'm not throwing out something that is completely out of touch, Sagarin has Missouri State as #25 in the country.

Thanks for walking me through your process. It just jumped out at me that the same team kept popping up as a "Good" win even though they'd lost so many games.

[HensRock]

Not arguing, just comparing a couple of CAA teams, Towson and UD, with the same conference record and wins against top-third of FCS caliber teams (UConn and JMU). But yes, that is a first year requirement xthumbsupx

I apologize U11,
Because your retort ONLY makes sense if UD's win against JMU was listed as a "good win", and while I could not imagine a world in which that were true, low and behold - I checked Sup's spreadsheet - and there it was; UD over JMU in the "Good Win" column!

HOW IN THE WORLD IS UD OVER JMU A "GOOD" WIN ????????

JMU is 5-3. Their 5 wins are:
Central Conn State
St. Francis
Charlotte
Albany
Richmond