Oct. 16 Playoff Projections

[CSN-info]

Oct. 16 Playoff Projectionshttp://www.collegesportingnews.com/image.php?u=4&dateline=1263345964&type=profile
Kent Schmidt
CSN West Columnist
College Sporting News

Using this week's GPI, here are my projections for the expanded 24-team field for this year's football playoffs.

The following are the teams getting in using the GPI. Note that Fordham is not eligible for the Patriot League title so second place in the GPI Lehigh is the projected automatic qualifier from the Patriot League. ...

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?274-Oct-16-Playoff-Projections

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

The SLC champ should get a top 4 seed this year. I think it'll be Sam Houston.
If Fordham wins out, and I think they will, they should get a seed.

[BisonFan02]

Sooooo the #1 seed would get the winner of SDSU and Montana St. Lovely deal they Bison get with regionalization.

[Bill]

Sorry if this question is ignorant, but here it goes:

Do I even want to know how GPI is calculated? It's tough to take a ranking system that puts a team with a head-to-head loss like Villanova 5 spots higher than the undefeated team they lost to (Fordham) seriously...

[PAllen]

Sorry if this question is ignorant, but here it goes:

Do I even want to know how GPI is calculated? It's tough to take a ranking system that puts a team with a head-to-head loss like Villanova 5 spots higher than the undefeated team they lost to (Fordham) seriously...

Simple Bill. Take any ranking system available, then multiply by a conference coefficient that states the MVFC, SoCon, and CAA are increadible, and the MEAC, Pioneer are bad. Last of all, the PL is terrible, so no team from there can be any good. Oh, and drop Lehigh an additional 10 places just because. The GPI has been crap for quite some time.

[Pard4Life]

Fordham no respect!

[blueballs]

He's got the SoCon down as a one bid league... interesting.

[Grizalltheway]

8 seeds and not a one from the Big Sky? Back to the drawing board my friend...

[Nova09]

Sorry if this question is ignorant, but here it goes:

Do I even want to know how GPI is calculated? It's tough to take a ranking system that puts a team with a head-to-head loss like Villanova 5 spots higher than the undefeated team they lost to (Fordham) seriously...

If you actually think Fordham is better than Nova, you would think this plays out nicely for the Rams. I personally would LOVE to get the Fordham/Bryant winner.

[PAllen]

If you actually think Fordham is better than Nova, you would think this plays out nicely for the Rams. I personally would LOVE to get the Fordham/Bryant winner.

Ah yes, another message from "the records don't count" club.

[Bill]

Nova
After looking at the posted bracket, I understand your take on this. However, I don't think Fordham would even be in the "play-in" round if they won out....and the potential rematch would not occur until later in the playoffs.

We're getting way ahead of ourselves, but I would assume/hope that Fordham is willing & able to host a game(s), if needed. Stranger things have happened with game locations that first weekend....

[Nova09]

Nova
After looking at the posted bracket, I understand your take on this. However, I don't think Fordham would even be in the "play-in" round if they won out....and the potential rematch would not occur until later in the playoffs.

We're getting way ahead of ourselves, but I would assume/hope that Fordham is willing & able to host a game(s), if needed. Stranger things have happened with game locations that first weekend....

Agreed, I can't see them not being top 8 if they win out

[bluehenbillk]

You hear the phrase "lazy journalism", but using the GPI to formulate playoff teams, in October, has to take the cake.

Thumbs down.

[Nova09]

You hear the phrase "lazy journalism", but using the GPI to formulate playoff teams, in October, has to take the cake.

Thumbs down.

Especially since he didn't take the team with top record in each conference as autobid, he took top GPI. It would be one thing if he thought the top GPI team would beat the current first place team, but in the case of CAA, Nova already beat Towson. Not that I care, I mean we have to keep winning to get in the playoffs, and if one slip up gives the autobid to Maine or something that's fine by me, but the methodology here is suspect.

[fmrbearkat]

I'm just wondering how we get the 7th seed with our most conceivable loss of the remaining schools is too McNeese but McNeese is a spot below us in the rankings? Kind of odd.

[MTfan4life]

8 seeds and not a one from the Big Sky? Back to the drawing board my friend...

This is an entire projection based solely off the GPI. There's nothing to react to. It's purely a statistical analysis. Nothing more and nothing less.

[gotts]

Ah yes, another message from "the records don't count" club.

You sir, are an elite football mind!

[PAllen]

You sir, are an elite football mind!

Why thank you sir, but I wouldn't say "elite". How about "damned good"?

[gotts]

Why thank you sir, but I wouldn't say "elite". How about "damned good"?

Oh no, definitely elite. Can't wait for some more of those hot FCS takes!

[BisonFan02]

Oh no, definitely elite. Can't wait for some more of those hot FCS takes!

xlolx

[Squealofthepig]

This is an entire projection based solely off the GPI. There's nothing to react to. It's purely a statistical analysis. Nothing more and nothing less.

To build on this, it's also a statistical analysis at a specific point in time. Several top teams haven't gotten to the meat of their schedule, and later analysis will reward winners etc etc.

[ysubigred]

5 Teams in for the MVFC xlolx When did we change our name to the CAA xsmiley_wix

[ysubigred]

Fordham no respect!

Play somebody... Oh they did xconfusedx I can't see them being better than 5th/4th even with their decent schedule.

[CID1990]

He's got the SoCon down as a one bid league... interesting.

I think if things keep going the way they are and the teams keep playing the way they are, we will see Samford, and either UTC or Wofford in the playoffs.

I think any one of those three teams (especially Samford) could well go deep into the playoffs. I could totally see Samford in the final. I think they are that good.

[van]

Play somebody... Oh they did xconfusedx I can't see them being better than 5th/4th even with their decent schedule.

If Rams get by Eli this week, and they should, they probably go 11-0 with the next toughest game (HC) at home. Other than Bison and maybe Southland champ, who would get seeded above them?

[FordhamFan]

If Rams get by Eli this week, and they should, they probably go 11-0 with the next toughest game (HC) at home. Other than Bison and maybe Southland champ, who would get seeded above them?

Unfortunately a few teams probably. EIU, Coastal Carolina to name a couple..

With Temple turning out to be a joke, Fordhams win over Villanova being way earlier in the year and Lehigh still being in the patriot league, Fordhams resume coming from the Patriot and being an at large just won't be enough. I'm sure they'll find a reason to drop and undefeated Fordham to a 5 seed or lower

[pokefan02]

Personally, I just hope we are seeded 24th or better.

[Grizalltheway]

If Rams get by Eli this week, and they should, they probably go 11-0 with the next toughest game (HC) at home. Other than Bison and maybe Southland champ, who would get seeded above them?

I honestly think the committee would put an 11-1 Big Sky team above them, but that's just my unbiased opinion.

[catbob]

I honestly think the committee would put an 11-1 Big Sky team above them, but that's just my unbiased opinion.

You mean the Griz. Tough schedule left for you guys.

[Grizalltheway]

You mean the Griz. Tough schedule left for you guys.

I didn't say that...xwhistlex

But yeah, if we manage to win out it'll be quite the feat, and deserving of a high seed, IMO.

[robsnotes4u]

I didn't say that...xwhistlex

But yeah, if we manage to win out it'll be quite the feat, and deserving of a high seed, IMO.

I agree.


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[kalm]

You mean the Griz. Tough schedule left for you guys.

A 10-2 BSC champion should be seeded above them too.

And ditto on the laziness of using just the GPI. The lack of a Big Sky seed is laughable.

[thebootfitter]

And ditto on the laziness of using just the GPI. The lack of a Big Sky seed is laughable.
Not defending anyone here, because there is really nothing to defend. But I still have to chuckle a bit at labeling the use of GPI as "lazy."

Kent could have made predictions about how things would play out, many of which most certainly would have been wrong. That could be a fun exercise, but I think a few other publications are doing that. Instead he is using an objective measure that will certainly change through the course of the season and he will update it as the season plays out. The AGS poll may be a better recent predictor of the playoff field vs the GPI, but the GPI hasn't performed poorly either.

He states pretty clearly that this is how the playoff field would play out if the season ended today and the GPI were used to determine the playoff field. It's one perspective among many to ponder what might happen. I actually appreciate the perspective.

[Bill]

He states pretty clearly that this is how the playoff field would play out if the season ended today and the GPI were used to determine the playoff field. It's one perspective among many to ponder what might happen. I actually appreciate the perspective.

fitter - you're right - it is just one perspective. But based upon your statement (above), I stand by my original premise: if the season were to end today, I still have a hard time taking a rating that has Villanova ranked ahead of Fordham (despite a head-head victory and an undefeated record) seriously.

[thebootfitter]

fitter - you're right - it is just one perspective. But based upon your statement (above), I stand by my original premise: if the season were to end today, I still have a hard time taking a rating that has Villanova ranked ahead of Fordham (despite a head-head victory and an undefeated record) seriously.
You don't have to take it seriously. Just take it for what it is worth. I'm not sure if you are aware of how the GPI is calculated, but it is essentially an average of a couple human polls and several computer ranking systems.

Fordham may be a better team than Villanova at this point in the season, true. But the collective objective (note: not necessarily unbiased) computer simulation engines and/or ranking systems and the subjective human polls suggest they are not.

Personally, I think the AGS poll is probably a better indication of the relative strength of each team -- especially at this point in the season. But in the grand scheme of things, the collective systems used in the GPI are probably pretty fair for the most part. There just are some odd glitches that happen here and there because, as is often pointed out, the computers have no common sense.

[skinny_uncle]

I like it.

[R.A.]

A potential 10-2 SC State as the MEAC Automatic Bid and with a victory over Bethune Cookman, obviously would make the playoffs.

My question is this. Does a 10-2 Bethune- Cookman, with their FBS victory over Florida International and nine Division 1 victories (The Wildcats' victory over Virginia Union was a DII win), still gain an at- large bid into the playoffs; in your opinions?

[robsnotes4u]

A potential 10-2 SC State as the MEAC Automatic Bid and with a victory over Bethune Cookman, obviously would make the playoffs.

My question is this. Does a 10-2 Bethune- Cookman, with their FBS victory over Florida International and nine Division 1 victories (The Wildcats' victory over Virginia Union was a DII win), still gain an at- large bid into the playoffs; in your opinions?

Can't tell until the end and see the resumes of the other teams. Unfortunately, whether people like it or not, the history of what your team has done in previous years matters.


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[IBleedYellow]

Don't forget, how well the DII teams do throughout the rest of the year is taken into consideration as well.

Go Ferris State!

[McNeese72]

Don't forget, how well the DII teams do throughout the rest of the year is taken into consideration as well.

Go Ferris State!

Our DII team is doing pretty damn well!!!

Doc

[Humble Steward]

A potential 10-2 SC State as the MEAC Automatic Bid and with a victory over Bethune Cookman, obviously would make the playoffs.

My question is this. Does a 10-2 Bethune- Cookman, with their FBS victory over Florida International and nine Division 1 victories (The Wildcats' victory over Virginia Union was a DII win), still gain an at- large bid into the playoffs; in your opinions?

Honestly, I would have to say yes. The two losses would have come from good teams (FSU, SCSU) with winning records. I think we would be traveling instead of hosting a game. However, it's too early to predict and we are staying in the moment. Savannah State is on the clock.

[RabidRabbit]

Honestly, I would have to say yes. The two losses would have come from good teams (FSU, SCSU) with winning records. I think we would be traveling instead of hosting a game. However, it's too early to predict and we are staying in the moment. Savannah State is on the clock.

IMHO, Humble Stewart has it. Also, the TN St. win, and how TN St fits into the play-off picture also comes into the 2nd MEAC vs a 2nd OVC team into the play-off decision.

[dbackjon]

Nova and Bill and Mary lose.

[dbackjon]

South Dakota State loses

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

CCU is in great shape to end the season undefeated. Liberty is done after the loss today....

[SeattleGriz]

Today proved you need to rework the math on this GPI thing. I usually don't rail on anyone that puts up a ranking, but...

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Fordham ran past Yale today. The only thing keeping them from 12-0 is a blizzard in Hamilton, NY on 11/23.....

[dbackjon]

#4 UNI loses

Either SHSU or McNEese will lose as well

[gotts]

PAllen, any HOT TAKES from today?