New & Improved! Good Wins/Bad Losses Spreadsheet

[superman7515]

After shutting it down for the last 48+ hours and in consultation with some of the most mediocre minds AGS has to offer (just kidding, sincere thanks to everyone I contacted and who got back with me) a revamped and improved (at least in my mind) spreadsheet has been completed to assist in our poll making ventures. Using multiple sources, several polls, a couple of shots of vodka, and a high tech simulation engine...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/thumbnail_570x321/2013/02/puppy_bowl_ix.jpg

... every team in the FCS was ranked.

The top 1/3 are counted as Good Wins.
The middle 1/3 doesn't count for or against anyone.
The bottom 1/3 counts as a bad loss.
Any FBS team that is not ranked higher than the last team in the top 1/3 does not count as a Good Win (ex. there are 120 teams in the FCS, if the FBS team ranks lower than #40, it isn't a Good Win).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdDd2amhTd05oRTZIc2EyNS1QUmFfW Hc&usp=sharing

Also, you'll notice there are now additional tabs at the bottom. If you click on the Good Win tab, you will see every team that counts as a Good Win (in alphabetical order, not by order of ranking, NDSU came out on top getting every possible #1) and the five teams that are just outside the top 1/3. The same goes with the Bad Loss tab, which will show you the bottom 1/3 in alphabetical order and the five teams in the most danger of dropping into the bottom 1/3. Finally, the Non-Counter FBS tab shows all of the FBS teams that do not count as a Good Win (see the above explanation) so that when you look at How They Fared sheet, you'll know that not all FBS wins are created equal.

[rokamortis]

That is damn impressive.

I liked it before but love it now.

I think someone jokingly suggested that we should send both of your compiled documents the voters of other polls .... but seriously, that should happen.

One suggestion, can you add in a key to what the background colors stand for in the first column?

[Twentysix]

You should email this to the voting SID's. lol.

[superman7515]

One suggestion, can you add in a key to what the background colors stand for in the first column?

And done. It's to the right of the spreadsheet, just after the FBS section, so you'll have to scroll over a bit if you don't have it opened full screen.

[ElCid]

Crap, I can't get to it at work. Have to wait until lunch. The suspense is killing me.

[Houndawg]

SEMO beats Murray State, a good win for SEMO but not a bad loss for Murray?

[superman7515]

SEMO beats Murray State, a good win for SEMO but not a bad loss for Murray?

No. As I explained, the bottom 1/3 of teams are a Bad Loss. SEMO is not ranked in the bottom 1/3. Not every Good Win has a Bad Loss attached. Extreme example, no one would claim that Northern Iowa's loss to North Dakota State is a Bad Loss. And vice-versa, not every Bad Loss has a Good Win attached. If Savannah State beats Florida A&M, that's a Bad Loss for Florida A&M, but FAMU isn't rated high enough to be a Good Win for Savannah State.

[WH49er]

Can't really agree with what you put up for Charlotte but good job on all the hard work.

[IBleedYellow]

Crazy how many teams can't get to 7 wins already.

[superman7515]

Can't really agree with what you put up for Charlotte but good job on all the hard work.

The only thing on Charlotte is that their 23 point loss to D2 UNC Pembroke was a bad loss. Not sure how many would disagree with that, but I feel the majority would agree with that assessment. Well, the only other thing is that they have a red background because they can't reach 7 D1 wins, but that's not subjective.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Hey Supe, FYI I like this spreadsheet a lot better because it makes an effort to separate the FBS wins from the god-awful to the ones that actually merit a second look. Nice work.

Fordham's win over Temple is considered a "good win" for now but if they keep losing I could see it moving towards the "Other FBS Win" category. I think it's important that this type of movement for the FBS wins exists.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

One minor thing. I didn't check the methodology completely, but can Dayton's wins over NEC teams be considered "good wins" (or, conversely, could a loss to them be reconsidered as a "bad loss")? Not that Dayton is a Top 40 team or anything, but I pretty much expected them to beat RMU and I thought their win over Duquesne was a "good win".

[superman7515]

I tried to keep it uniform so that a Good Win for Team X meant the same thing as a Good Win for Team Y. It could be broken down further to display something like "wins above your stature" or something like that, example wins against teams that were ranked 25+ spots above the other team.

The problem is that it changes week to week, so a just like a Good Win (AppState) can fall to being just so-so, or a Bad Loss (Charleston Southern) can rise up, what seems like something completely unexpected at the beginning (Fordham) could turn out to be par for the course for their season. It already takes several hours to put this together because I have to go through every teams schedule one by one and check to see if their opponents moved up or down and have gained or lost a new classification. Honestly, I just don't think I would have the time to make that happen.

[Houndawg]

Hey Supe, FYI I like this spreadsheet a lot better because it makes an effort to separate the FBS wins from the god-awful to the ones that actually merit a second look. Nice work.

Fordham's win over Temple is considered a "good win" for now but if they keep losing I could see it moving towards the "Other FBS Win" category. I think it's important that this type of movement for the FBS wins exists.

If a win was a good win when it happened but the opponent later tanks, should the win later be judged by a different standard? Example, say SIU beats then TOP 10 SDSU early in the season; SDSU later drops out of the rankings. At the end of the season what kind of victory is it?

[Twentysix]

If a win was a good win when it happened but the opponent later tanks, should the win later be judged by a different standard? Example, say SIU beats then TOP 10 SDSU early in the season; SDSU later drops out of the rankings. At the end of the season what kind of victory is it?

Yes. Everything should be reevaluated constantly.

[penguinpower]

And done. It's to the right of the spreadsheet, just after the FBS section, so you'll have to scroll over a bit if you don't have it opened full screen.

Very Very Nice.

[superman7515]

If a win was a good win when it happened but the opponent later tanks, should the win later be judged by a different standard? Example, say SIU beats then TOP 10 SDSU early in the season; SDSU later drops out of the rankings. At the end of the season what kind of victory is it?

Every team is re-ranked weekly and their schedule examined. Teams that drop from the top 1/3 to the middle are no longer Good Wins and teams that rise from the bottom 1/3 to the middle are no longer Bad Losses. As AppState could very well show us over the next few weeks, a team that starts as a Good Win can fall all the way to a Bad Loss, or in Charleston Southern's case, a team that starts as a Bad Loss could rise all the way to a Good Win (they'll need to knock off Liberty & Coastal Carolina to make that happen, but it's possible).

[WH49er]

The only thing on Charlotte is that their 23 point loss to D2 UNC Pembroke was a bad loss. Not sure how many would disagree with that, but I feel the majority would agree with that assessment. Well, the only other thing is that they have a red background because they can't reach 7 D1 wins, but that's not subjective.


Did you rank any of the DII programs (opponents)? Was it considered a bad loss solely based on them being DII?

[Twentysix]

Did you rank any of the DII programs (opponents)? Was it considered a bad loss solely based on them being DII?

Losing by more than 3 touchdowns sure doesn't help your case in the least.

[WH49er]

Losing by more than 3 touchdowns sure doesn't help your case in the least.


You're preaching to the choir. With 15 of their 22 starters as seniors and 14 of 22 of our starters as freshman or RS freshman, it was a recipe for disaster.

[rokamortis]

And done. It's to the right of the spreadsheet, just after the FBS section, so you'll have to scroll over a bit if you don't have it opened full screen.

Thanks. I should have made the connection - but the white and grey highlights were throwing me off. I now realize that was just to separate the teams.

[superman7515]

Did you rank any of the DII programs (opponents)? Was it considered a bad loss solely based on them being DII?

Unfortunately, there aren't enough good sources for D2 rankings for me to add them to the system. I would love to honestly. I know UNC Pembroke is fourth in the country right now, and as a Delaware fan I'm sure there are years when West Chester would have beaten Delaware State, but there's just not much out there for D2.

[Twentysix]

Unfortunately, there aren't enough good sources for D2 rankings for me to add them to the system. I would love to honestly. I know UNC Pembroke is fourth in the country right now, and as a Delaware fan I'm sure there are years when West Chester would have beaten Delaware State, but there's just not much out there for D2.

10th on ncaa.com

[URMite]

Unfortunately, there aren't enough good sources for D2 rankings for me to add them to the system. I would love to honestly. I know UNC Pembroke is fourth in the country right now, and as a Delaware fan I'm sure there are years when West Chester would have beaten Delaware State, but there's just not much out there for D2.

Since you don't have the data to rank D2 teams maybe it would be good to include their record after their name in the bad losses column?

[Twentysix]

Since you don't have the data to rank D2 teams maybe it would be good to include their record after their name in the bad losses column?

If Alabama loses to Charleston Southern (7-0) is it a bad loss? Maybe the record doesn't mean much lol.

[superman7515]

Since you don't have the data to rank D2 teams maybe it would be good to include their record after their name in the bad losses column?

Twentysix was a little more blunt than I would have been, haha. But I think that would be misleading, as an example, if you look at the Bad Losses tab and the teams that are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of FCS, there was at least one 5-2 team from the SWAC in there and several others with winning records. If I saw a team was 5-2, most people (myself included) wouldn't correlate that to being a bottom tier team. Then you're stuck with trying to see which 5 teams they beat and ranking them yourself and it just ends up a mental clusterpuck.

[dewey]

Great work Supe! As an engineer I love a good excel spreadsheet:D

Dewey

[PAllen]

I love it! Keep it up Supe.

[JMUNJ08]

Great work Supe! As an engineer I love a good excel spreadsheet:D

Dewey

Same thing as an accountant! Rankings, numbers, percentages, all that stuff is awesome!

[URMite]

Twentysix was a little more blunt than I would have been, haha. But I think that would be misleading, as an example, if you look at the Bad Losses tab and the teams that are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of FCS, there was at least one 5-2 team from the SWAC in there and several others with winning records. If I saw a team was 5-2, most people (myself included) wouldn't correlate that to being a bottom tier team. Then you're stuck with trying to see which 5 teams they beat and ranking them yourself and it just ends up a mental clusterpuck.

I don't keep up with D2 enough to know if they are as diverse as FCS, so I thought the record (for D2 bad losses only) MIGHT be meaningful. In general, I was thinking a D2 team that was 6-5 would be worse than one that was 10-1 but both were likely to be bad losses.

[superman7515]

I don't keep up with D2 enough to know if they are as diverse as FCS, so I thought the record (for D2 bad losses only) MIGHT be meaningful. In general, I was thinking a D2 team that was 6-5 would be worse than one that was 10-1 but both were likely to be bad losses.

Yeah, they have 150+ teams and I don't follow it enough to be able to differentiate the tiers there. I tried looking into systems that ranked all of the teams across all levels to try to get a base, but that didn't work out too hot. I gave up on that idea after coming across compughterratings.com which had West Chester ahead of Tennessee and Sam Houston State, Grand View ahead of West Virginia and Youngstown State, etc. Pretty much got a f--- that out of me and I moved on.

[lionsrking2]

The research is well done, and I commend the effort, but there's a lot of gray area left to be explored when trying to make comparisons. In addition to good wins and bad losses, there are also solid wins and competitive losses which need to be taken into account ... Northern Iowa losing by a point at NDSU is better than a lot of the good wins I see listed, and there are some with dominant wins over solid-not-great teams which may be just as telling IMO. That aside, this list a decent place to start if your looking for the Cliff Notes version of who's performing well around the country.

[Engineer86]

Great job! If Citdog would just comment how great Lehigh is so I could rep him, I would be able to throw more at you xlolx

[thebootfitter]

It already takes several hours to put this together because I have to go through every teams schedule one by one and check to see if their opponents moved up or down and have gained or lost a new classification. Honestly, I just don't think I would have the time to make that happen.
There has got to be a way to make the spreadsheet formula driven or macro driven so that it is less manual effort for you, no?

I haven't opened it up yet, but I can envision a sheet that has all the weekly match ups pre-populated and all you have to do is enter scores for each game every week. And I guess if you are also using rating systems or polls in your ranking, you'd have to copy that in each week too. But everything else should be able to be automatically populated via formulas.

Maybe easier said than done, but there has got to be an Excel pro around here. If not, I'll take a look at some point. I don't vote, but I still appreciate your effort in putting this together. I'd love to be able to give you back a few hours of time every week. :-)

[mainejeff]

Why are UNH and Stony Brook counted as "good wins" for Towson and Villanova but Delaware and Richmond are not counted as "good wins" for Maine???

[superman7515]

Delaware was the last team out, meaning the last team that didn't make the top 1/3. Neither them, nor Richmond, rank high enough to be a Good Win. Flip side, Appalachian State was the last team out for the Bad Loss ranking, another loss or some teams in the bottom 1/3 winning this weekend could drop the Mountaineers into Bad Loss territory.

[mainejeff]

Delaware was the last team out, meaning the last team that didn't make the top 1/3. Neither them, nor Richmond, rank high enough to be a Good Win. Flip side, Appalachian State was the last team out for the Bad Loss ranking, another loss or some teams in the bottom 1/3 winning this weekend could drop the Mountaineers into Bad Loss territory.

I see.......so Stony Brook and UNH are better teams than Delaware and Richmond.........OK. Glad that Maine still has 4 "good teams" to play in W&M, Villanova, Stony Brook, and UNH. Still wondering if Maine will get any respect from anyone even if they beat those teams though. I can see an 11-1 Maine team finishing outside the Top 5. If only Maine were in the Patriot.......people would be tripping over themselves to give them accolades.

[ccd494]

Yeah that seems really arbitrary. Delaware and Richmond are better than Stony Brook.

I also question why Towson gets credit for beating a terrible UConn team but Maine doesn't get credit for beating a terrible UMass team.

[thebootfitter]

All y'all Maine folks should create your own version of this spreadsheet.

You'll see it is no easy task. You'll see that no matter how fair and objective you try and make it, someone somewhere will perceive some fault for their own favorite team.

Maine has a great team. If they finish 11-1, they'll end up in the playoffs, very likely seeded, and have the chance to show how good they are. I wouldn't worry too much about where they fall on Supe's spreadsheet. Just take it for what it is.

[superman7515]

I see.......so Stony Brook and UNH are better teams than Delaware and Richmond.........OK. Glad that Maine still has 4 "good teams" to play in W&M, Villanova, Stony Brook, and UNH. Still wondering if Maine will get any respect from anyone even if they beat those teams though. I can see an 11-1 Maine team finishing outside the Top 5. If only Maine were in the Patriot.......people would be tripping over themselves to give them accolades.

I really don't understand your complaint. Top 10 Maine is getting disrespected because I didn't score Delaware high enough? Neither this nor the How They Fared spreadsheet is in any way telling people who to vote for in their AGS poll, which has no bearing on playoff selections or seeding, so what exactly are you trying to accomplish? It's simply a tool for anyone so inclined to take a look at and use or ignore as they see fit.

The Hens should finish somewhere around 6-6/7-5 and I'm leaning towards 6-6 if our current level of play continues. Other than Rhode Island, I don't see the Hens as a favorite in any remaining games on the schedule. That doesn't mean anything as to how the game is played, but let's assume you went to the Maine/Delaware game... What did you see to make you believe Delaware is a top tier team at this point? They were the first team to miss the top 1/3, so if someone near the bottom loses this weekend, congrats, it could very well count as a Good Win next week, just not at the moment. Obviously I'm not above admitting the system has a flaw and reevaluting, that's what just happened, nor am I above asking for input as I sent out messages to numerous folks on here and other sites asking for some insight. After letting this play out over the rest of the season, I'll look over it along with some others and see if we notice any glaring issues beyond a minor tweak or two, and if necessary I'll make the changes at that time. Anyway, we'll just agree to disagree at this point because I'm hard to get along with and you're kind of a bitch.

[ccd494]

I'm just saying, that your system here counts a 62 point explosion against a decent team (top 40, second 40, either way not a bad team) the same way it treats a 31-28 home overtime win against a 1-5 team.

There's no perfect way to do it, and I appreciate your efforts, but I am just playing devil's advocate and saying that people should maybe use this as a way to start a deeper delve into research to do their rankings and not as canon.

MJ's "disrespect" issues are his own.

[thebootfitter]

There's no perfect way to do it, and I appreciate your efforts, but I am just playing devil's advocate and saying that people should maybe use this as a way to start a deeper delve into research to do their rankings and not as canon.

Exactly.

[superman7515]

I'm just saying, that your system here counts a 62 point explosion against a decent team (top 40, second 40, either way not a bad team) the same way it treats a 31-28 home overtime win against a 1-5 team.

There's no perfect way to do it, and I appreciate your efforts, but I am just playing devil's advocate and saying that people should maybe use this as a way to start a deeper delve into research to do their rankings and not as canon.

MJ's "disrespect" issues are his own.

There has to be a cut off somewhere. 42 teams are getting counted as Good Wins, which is a pretty sizeable amount. There was a 1-5 team last year still getting Top 25 votes, so I will contend that not all records are created equal. 7-0 Charleston Southern would probably get monkey-stomped by that 1-5 team, not to take a shot at the Buccaneers.

[mainejeff]

I really don't understand your complaint. Top 10 Maine is getting disrespected because I didn't score Delaware high enough? Neither this nor the How They Fared spreadsheet is in any way telling people who to vote for in their AGS poll, which has no bearing on playoff selections or seeding, so what exactly are you trying to accomplish? It's simply a tool for anyone so inclined to take a look at and use or ignore as they see fit.

The Hens should finish somewhere around 6-6/7-5 and I'm leaning towards 6-6 if our current level of play continues. Other than Rhode Island, I don't see the Hens as a favorite in any remaining games on the schedule. That doesn't mean anything as to how the game is played, but let's assume you went to the Maine/Delaware game... What did you see to make you believe Delaware is a top tier team at this point? They were the first team to miss the top 1/3, so if someone near the bottom loses this weekend, congrats, it could very well count as a Good Win next week, just not at the moment. Obviously I'm not above admitting the system has a flaw and reevaluting, that's what just happened, nor am I above asking for input as I sent out messages to numerous folks on here and other sites asking for some insight. After letting this play out over the rest of the season, I'll look over it along with some others and see if we notice any glaring issues beyond a minor tweak or two, and if necessary I'll make the changes at that time. Anyway, we'll just agree to disagree at this point because I'm hard to get along with and you're kind of a bitch.

Considering your response to my criticism of what constitutes a "good team"........I think that you are the one acting like a bitch.xnodxxpeacex

[mainejeff]

I'm just saying, that your system here counts a 62 point explosion against a decent team (top 40, second 40, either way not a bad team) the same way it treats a 31-28 home overtime win against a 1-5 team.

There's no perfect way to do it, and I appreciate your efforts, but I am just playing devil's advocate and saying that people should maybe use this as a way to start a deeper delve into research to do their rankings and not as canon.

MJ's "disrespect" issues are his own.

"Disrespect"? Seriously?xrolleyesx I'm not the one that called someone a bitch..........just sayin'.

[ccd494]

"Disrespect"? Seriously?xrolleyesx I'm not the one that called someone a bitch..........just sayin'.

His word, not mine.

[Fear the Bird]

You guys are both morons - clamoring for your beatdown of a pathetic defense to be claimed as a "good win"

You obviously have way to much respect for this Delaware football team that barely beat (and probably deserved to lose) to an Albany squad that would definitely not qualify as a good win.

As Supe stated, this is a 6-6 squad, assuming they beat Rhody next week. Go beat the real top of the CAA down the stretch, and you will get all the respect you need.

[mainejeff]

His word, not mine.

I don't see where he used the term "disrespect" in any of his posts directed toward me.......although if he had......it would be just as laughable.

[Fear the Bird]

I don't see where he used the term "disrespect" in any of his posts directed toward me.......although if he had......it would be just as laughable.

Seriously bro? Read the context again. CLEARLY, the word disrespect meant that you feel disrespected by pollsters, not that you disrespected anybody.

[mainejeff]

You guys are both morons - clamoring for your beatdown of a pathetic defense to be claimed as a "good win"

You obviously have way to much respect for this Delaware football team that barely beat (and probably deserved to lose) to an Albany squad that would definitely not qualify as a good win.

As Supe stated, this is a 6-6 squad, assuming they beat Rhody next week. Go beat the real top of the CAA down the stretch, and you will get all the respect you need.

Agreed. Delaware sucks and UNH, Stony Brook and JMU are obviously better and "good" teams.

[mainejeff]

Seriously bro? Read the context again. CLEARLY, the word disrespect meant that you feel disrespected by pollsters, not that you disrespected anybody.

Thanks for explaining bro.

[LeadBolt]

No chance for Maine to have a bad loss this weekend.

[ccd494]

You guys are both morons - clamoring for your beatdown of a pathetic defense to be claimed as a "good win"

You obviously have way to much respect for this Delaware football team that barely beat (and probably deserved to lose) to an Albany squad that would definitely not qualify as a good win.

As Supe stated, this is a 6-6 squad, assuming they beat Rhody next week. Go beat the real top of the CAA down the stretch, and you will get all the respect you need.

I'm not arguing that Delaware is a "good" win. I'm saying that this formula is overly simplistic in that it grants the same heft to a blowout of Delaware as it does a 3 point, overtime home win over 1-5 App State. Context matters, and this spreadsheet provides none.

[thebootfitter]

Context matters, and this spreadsheet provides none.
None? Hmm...

Perhaps it provides context, but not the context that you would like it to?

Before criticizing too much, can you add something constructive and come up with an idea that would allow the spreadsheet to take your idea of context into account and yet still be fair and objective to all other teams and situations? I'm not going to speak for Supe, but I suspect if you offered a valid alternative, he would consider it.

Seriously, though, it would be a good exercise for you to create your own spreadsheet. Who knows... You might come up with something better. Though I suspect others would find just as many flaws and loopholes in yours as you are finding in this one.

[Squealofthepig]

I'm not arguing that Delaware is a "good" win. I'm saying that this formula is overly simplistic in that it grants the same heft to a blowout of Delaware as it does a 3 point, overtime home win over 1-5 App State. Context matters, and this spreadsheet provides none.

So I take it from that comment that you're going to spend the time to create something better, then?

[Engineer86]

Is Maine's motto, "We do more with less!" Because you are doing more whining than Lehigh with much fewer posters. As others have said, it is what it is, just not what YOU want. ..... Playoffs, you will be in, just win.

[AmsterBison]

The CAA had no good OOC wins last year either.

That said, UMass has reached the soft underbelly of their schedule (i.e. they only have MAC games left), so maybe Maine will end up with a quality non-conference W by the time the playoffs roll around.

[superman7515]

I see.......so Stony Brook and UNH are better teams than Delaware and Richmond.........OK. Glad that Maine still has 4 "good teams" to play in W&M, Villanova, Stony Brook, and UNH.

Well UNH just beat #4 Villanova and Richmond lost to Rhode Island. At least William & Mary was competitive with Maine, that's more than elaware can say. Anyway, I think we affirmatively answered the above question.

[Cocky]

Bump