Bracketology

[FargoBison]

I know it is early but it is always fun to put together a bracket...so here is my much too early playoff bracketology....

Samford @ Bethune-Cookman vs 1. NDSU
Butler @ UNI vs 8. Montana State
Bryant @ JMU vs 5. Fordham
Maine @ Montana vs 4. EWU

NAU @ McNeese St vs 3. SHSU
Wofford@ CCU vs 6. Towson
Lehigh @ YSU vs 7. Nova
SIU @ Tenn State vs 2. EIU

Bubble(in no order): SDSU, William and Mary, Delaware, SC State, Cal Poly, SUU, Se La, Murray State and Chatty

I really struggled in picking the fourth CAA team. I do think the CAA will get four teams in but I have no idea who will take that spot so for now I picked JMU.

[FargoBison]

Here is TSN's take

NAU@ YSU vs 1. NDSU
Lehigh@ Maine vs 8. Nova
Wofford@ Bethune-Cookman vs 5. CCU
SDSU@ McNeese State vs 4. EWU

Bryant@ Towson vs 3. EIU
Samford@ UNI vs 6. Montana State
Chatty@ Tenn State vs 7. Fordham
San Diego@ Montana vs 2. SHSU



http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[MTfan4life]

How dare you both not seed UNI!!!!!! It would be next to impossible for them to be unseeded, you guys clearly know nothing and will be soon be dragged through the mud for doing so!!! t.i.c.

[FargoBison]

How dare you both not seed UNI!!!!!! It would be next to impossible for them to be unseeded, you guys clearly know nothing and will be soon be dragged through the mud for doing so!!! t.i.c.

xlolxxlolx

Yeah your decision to not seed UNI is looking pretty good this week. Of course the Panthers can work their way back in contention with some W's though. Farely though seems to be a rather large loss.

[Professor Chaos]

Looks pretty good, I can't argue with either projection too much.

Here's where I think things stand right now. I'm not predicting the rest of the season just what I think the field would be if the playoffs started this Saturday. Auto bids are in ALL CAPS.

Winner of SAMFORD @ BETHUNE-COOKMAN
at
(1) NORTH DAKOTA ST

Winner of Wofford @ COASTAL CAROLINA
at
(8) Towson

Winner of Northern Iowa @ James Madison
at
(4) EASTERN WASHINGTON

Winner of Maine @ Northern Arizona
at
(5) Fordham

Winner of South Dakota St @ Montana
at
(2) SAM HOUSTON ST

Winner of Southern Illinois @ McNeese St
at
(7) Montana St

Winner of BUTLER @ Youngstown St
at
(3) EASTERN ILLINOIS

Winner of DUQUESNE @ LEHIGH
at
(6) VILLANOVA

Bids by conference: MVFC - 5, Big Sky/CAA - 4, Southland/SOCON/Patriot - 2, OVC/MEAC/Big South/NEC/Pioneer - 1.

Last 4 in: Northern Arizona, Wofford, James Madison, South Dakota St
First 4 out: Tennessee St, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee-Martin, Chattanooga

[MTfan4life]

This is an end the season projection. If UNI wins out they will probably get a seed. This is guessing that they lose one more game although that outcome is next to impossible. This is also projecting that Maine loses to Villanova on the road and loses to possibly W&M or a late season trap game @ UNH. The Big Sky beats each other up in this as well. You may also notice two MEACs. If SCSU, who looks pretty solid right now, wins out, I don't see how they leave out Bethune. The CAA is pretty balanced as always and so I see that knocking a lot of them out. Yes, I know Tennessee State is 6-1. However, they could lose their next three. Anyways, here it is:
1. North Dakota State

Montana State
McNeese State

William & Mary
Lehigh
8. Youngstown State

4. Fordham
Maine
Bryant

Coastal Carolina
Wofford
5. Villanova

3. Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa
South Carolina State

Montana
Southeastern Louisiana

6. Eastern Washington

7. Towson
Bethune-Cookman
Samford

Southern Illinois
Butler
2. Sam Houston State

[robsnotes4u]

Looks pretty good, I can't argue with either projection too much.

Here's where I think things stand right now. I'm not predicting the rest of the season just what I think the field would be if the playoffs started this Saturday. Auto bids are in ALL CAPS.

Winner of SAMFORD @ BETHUNE-COOKMAN
at
(1) NORTH DAKOTA ST

Winner of Wofford @ COASTAL CAROLINA
at
(8) Towson

Winner of Northern Iowa @ James Madison
at
(4) EASTERN WASHINGTON

Winner of Maine @ Northern Arizona
at
(5) Fordham

Winner of South Dakota St @ Montana
at
(2) SAM HOUSTON ST

Winner of Southern Illinois @ McNeese St
at
(7) Montana St

Winner of BUTLER @ Youngstown St
at
(3) EASTERN ILLINOIS

Winner of DUQUESNE @ LEHIGH
at
(6) VILLANOVA

Bids by conference: MVFC - 5, Big Sky/CAA - 4, Southland/SOCON/Patriot - 2, OVC/MEAC/Big South/NEC/Pioneer - 1.

Last 4 in: Northern Arizona, Wofford, James Madison, South Dakota St
First 4 out: Tennessee St, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee-Martin, Chattanooga

Because of travel restrictions in the playoff shouldn't the winner of a SDSU/Montana game be playing a seeded team like MSU or NDSU. Not picking on yours nut all the picks. I though that was the big beef last year when SDSU played NDSU


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[Professor Chaos]

Because of travel restrictions in the playoff shouldn't the winner of a SDSU/Montana game be playing a seeded team like MSU or NDSU. Not picking on yours nut all the picks. I though that was the big beef last year when SDSU played NDSU


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
Probably but I hate the fact that don't require the team with byes to play a second round game against an OOC team so I don't have any potential intra-conference matchups until the quarters.

[robsnotes4u]

Probably but I hate the fact that don't require the team with byes to play a second round game against an OOC team so I don't have any potential intra-conference matchups until the quarters.

I agree. I wish they would just seed everyone


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[PAllen]

Looks pretty good, I can't argue with either projection too much.

Here's where I think things stand right now. I'm not predicting the rest of the season just what I think the field would be if the playoffs started this Saturday. Auto bids are in ALL CAPS.

Winner of SAMFORD @ BETHUNE-COOKMAN
at
(1) NORTH DAKOTA ST

Winner of Wofford @ COASTAL CAROLINA
at
(8) Towson

Winner of Northern Iowa @ James Madison
at
(4) EASTERN WASHINGTON

Winner of Maine @ Northern Arizona
at
(5) Fordham

Winner of South Dakota St @ Montana
at
(2) SAM HOUSTON ST

Winner of Southern Illinois @ McNeese St
at
(7) Montana St

Winner of BUTLER @ Youngstown St
at
(3) EASTERN ILLINOIS

Winner of DUQUESNE @ LEHIGH
at
(6) VILLANOVA

Bids by conference: MVFC - 5, Big Sky/CAA - 4, Southland/SOCON/Patriot - 2, OVC/MEAC/Big South/NEC/Pioneer - 1.

Last 4 in: Northern Arizona, Wofford, James Madison, South Dakota St
First 4 out: Tennessee St, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee-Martin, Chattanooga

Based on what we see now, this is probably the best I've seen.

[FargoBison]

Probably but I hate the fact that don't require the team with byes to play a second round game against an OOC team so I don't have any potential intra-conference matchups until the quarters.

I don't like it either but I think the precedent was set last year.

[msupokes1]

This is an end the season projection. If UNI wins out they will probably get a seed. This is guessing that they lose one more game although that outcome is next to impossible. This is also projecting that Maine loses to Villanova on the road and loses to possibly W&M or a late season trap game @ UNH. The Big Sky beats each other up in this as well. You may also notice two MEACs. If SCSU, who looks pretty solid right now, wins out, I don't see how they leave out Bethune. The CAA is pretty balanced as always and so I see that knocking a lot of them out. Yes, I know Tennessee State is 6-1. However, they could lose their next three. Anyways, here it is:
1. North Dakota State

Montana State
Southeastern Louisiana

William & Mary
Lehigh
8. Youngstown State

4. Fordham
Maine
Bryant

Coastal Carolina
Wofford
5. Villanova

3. Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa
Northern Arizona

Montana
South Carolina State
6. Eastern Washington

7. Towson
Bethune-Cookman
Samford

Southern Illinois
Butler
2. Sam Houston State



I cant see McNeese not making it. They are at 5-1 right now. I think worse they could be is 9-3, which is losses to SHSU and SELA. that would leave them 8-3 vs. D-1. We would really have to screw up the back end of the schedule, which I guess could happen, to miss this year.

[MTfan4life]

Shoot, I need an editor. I had them in there as a seed until I replaced them with Youngstown and forgot to add them to the first round. It should be good now.

[Twentysix]

So everyone thinks the MVFC gets 4 or 5 this year? Half the conference making the playoffs, this sub-division is getting watered down if that happens.

[superman7515]

So everyone thinks the MVFC gets 4 or 5 this year? Half the conference making the playoffs, this sub-division is getting watered down if that happens.

8 team playoff. AQ to the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, Southland, and SoCon (who, like the AAC, will be under the constant threat of losing their bid) with three at-large spots to the highest ranked non-AQ's. xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

So everyone thinks the MVFC gets 4 or 5 this year? Half the conference making the playoffs, this sub-division is getting watered down if that happens.
I don't think it's that implausible. I'd bet the MVFC gets at least 4 and possibly 5. There's a lot of hypotheticals in here but bear with me.

NDSU is 6-0 and has @SIU, @InSU, IlSU, @YSU, and USD left. They finish 10-1 or 11-0 and are a top 2 seed.

YSU is 6-1 and has WIU, @USD, @UNI, NDSU, and SDSU left. I think they win 3 of those 5 so they're in at 9-3 (6-2) but probably not seeded.

SIU is 4-3 and has NDSU, @WIU, MSU, IlSU, and InSU left. I think they go 4-1 and finish 8-4 (6-2). With the wins they have I think that puts them in as well.

UNI is 4-2 and has USD, @SDSU, @IlSU, YSU, @MSU, and WIU left. These guys are the biggest unknown for me but I think they go 4-2, possibly 5-1, on the way out with that schedule. Whether they're 9-3 (5-3) or 8-4 (4-4) I think they're in with wins against McNeese and Iowa St.

Then you have SDSU. They're currently at 4-3 with @MSU, UNI, InSU, @USD, and @YSU left. They need to go 4-1 on the way out to even be in the conversation. Can they do it? Maybe. Should they be in at 8-4 (5-3)? I think they'd have the weakest resume of the other MVFC teams at 8-4 but it's possible based on what the rest of the bubble looks like.

That last game of the year in Youngstown against SDSU could turn out to be huge. I could see YSU coming in at a shaky 8-3 and SDSU being 7-4 in basically a play-in game.

[Grizzlies82]

I hate the fact that don't require the team with byes to play a second round game against an OOC team so I don't have any potential intra-conference matchups until the quarters.

That is a nice thought but the rule is the same it has *always* been; They just won't schedule a FIRST round game between conference opponents.
With four and five teams from multiple conferences it is difficult to set brackets to preclude a possible 2nd round match up between conference opponents. Then they also want to minimize travel expense by setting the early match ups on a regional geography basis. Thus the 1st round (non-conference game) winner is apt to be physically close to the 2nd round bye team (therefore likely a possible conference foe). So to avoid those 2nd round match ups they'd need to completely abandon their desire for minimizing travel expense.

Then the committee is faced with also juggling the multiple teams from the same conference as they created the brackets. Some years this may be easy however many years it would be a challenge. As an example, theoretically you'd be forced to pair all unseeded CAA & MVC teams against each other so those winners could play a seeded Big Sky or Southland team...

PS. *always* has not actually been always. Yet it has now been the rule for many years and thankfully prevents unwanted 1st round match ups between conference foes.

[Hammerhead]

I'm not sure if it's different now, but as of 2010: "Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games or for second round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship." (emphasis added)
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/smu/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2010-11FootballHandbook.pdf

[Professor Chaos]

That is a nice thought but the rule is the same it has *always* been; They just won't schedule a FIRST round game between conference opponents.
With four and five teams from multiple conferences it is difficult to set brackets to preclude a possible 2nd round match up between conference opponents. Then they also want to minimize travel expense by setting the early match ups on a regional geography basis. Thus the 1st round (non-conference game) winner is apt to be physically close to the 2nd round bye team (therefore likely a possible conference foe). So to avoid those 2nd round match ups they'd need to completely abandon their desire for minimizing travel expense.

Then the committee is faced with also juggling the multiple teams from the same conference as they created the brackets. Some years this may be easy however many years it would be a challenge. As an example, theoretically you'd be forced to pair all unseeded CAA & MVC teams against each other so those winners could play a seeded Big Sky or Southland team...

PS. *always* has not actually been always. Yet it has now been the rule for many years and thankfully prevents unwanted 1st round match ups between conference foes.
It's really not that difficult to set the bracket up with no possible intra-conference matchups until the quarters. The only thing keeping the NCAA from doing this is being cheap about travel. They also wouldn't need to completely abandon their desire to minimize travel expenses. Do they completely abandon the desire to minimize travel expenses in the first round when intra-conference pairings can't happen? Of course not, they still do their best to match teams up geographically. They just need to extend that to the second round.