AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 3

[superman7515]

Here are the results for Week 3:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdG1fZTZyLXlBaHdTQ0hGTE44NExad EE&usp=sharing

There is still one game ongoing as of this time that will affect the spreadsheet. Currently Sacramento State (ORV) is struggling with D2 Southern Oregon and the game is tied 42-42 in the 4th quarter. I'll update that once it goes final, but figured you could get a jump on looking at teams before the poll opens. If you notice any errors, let me know.


Here is the updated Good Wins/Bad Losses spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdDd2amhTd05oRTZIc2EyNS1QUmFfW Hc&usp=sharing

[Squealofthepig]

As always, love the work that goes behind this.

Also, can you detail what goes into your good wins/bad losses work? I noticed that the Fordham loss isn't listed as a bad loss by 'Nova now (which I agree with) - is this revisited weekly to reflect more on what we know about the teams? (Gardner-Webb may be the next team to re-evaluate, as two teams have bad losses to them).

[bobcathpdevil56]

Same question, does the Dusquesne win over Albany get dropped due to their loss to RI?

[superman7515]

Yeah, the baseline is how they did last season. Fordham had five D1 wins, so they weren't bad, they were just middle of the pack. It then gets revised weekly as teams do better or worse than expected. I gave the example last week that right now losing to Sacred Heart is a bad loss, but they've started out 3-0, so if they keep that up, it will come off. Appalachian State counts as a good win for Montana and North Carolina A&T, but haven't won a game yet, so if they keep losing, it will also come off. And of course, things can be added as well, as teams do better or worse than expected.

[bobcathpdevil56]

Gotta spread rep around Supe, but thanks for all the work

[superman7515]

Same question, does the Dusquesne win over Albany get dropped due to their loss to RI?

One loss isn't enough, or even two losses in this case, because they still have time to right the ship and be what was expected. Heck, they were still getting votes in the poll this past week. But if they lose to CCSU next week, then Albany is toast.

[superman7515]

Also, someone asked the question last week about why Team A has a bad loss to Team B, but Team B didn't get a good win against Team A.

So using a hypothetical situation.... Savannah State beats Charleston Southern; that's a bad loss for Charleston Southern but is beating Charleston Southern really a good win? No. It's not a relative system, if it wouldn't be a good win for North Dakota State or Sam Houston State or Towson, then it isn't a good win for anyone.

The flip side is that it goes the same way when there are losses and bad losses. If San Diego, Columbia, or Grambling lost to Eastern Illinois, that wouldn't be a bad loss. So it's not a bad loss if a team ranked above them loses.

[wmmii]

Awesome job as usual, I depend on this to help with voting!

[dgtw]

Can a good loss become a bad loss? Let's say you lost to the #1 team in the country in the first game of the year. But then that team falls apart and finishes at 1-11.

An extreme example, but I think you get the point.

[Squealofthepig]

Can a good loss become a bad loss? Let's say you lost to the #1 team in the country in the first game of the year. But then that team falls apart and finishes at 1-11.

An extreme example, but I think you get the point.

Where are you seeing "good loss" at? Supe explained it best up above:


It then gets revised weekly as teams do better or worse than expected. I gave the example last week that right now losing to Sacred Heart is a bad loss, but they've started out 3-0, so if they keep that up, it will come off. Appalachian State counts as a good win for Montana and North Carolina A&T, but haven't won a game yet, so if they keep losing, it will also come off.

[Twentysix]

Not to step on toes, but SDSU over SELA seems like a pretty good win.

Certainly better than beating EKU or Georgia State.

[Tod]

Fordham and Eastern Illinois. Boom! They move up. This is not rocket science.

[Tod]

Fordham and Eastern Illinois. Boom! They move up. This is not rocket science.

Also, Tennessee- Martin.

[superman7515]

Not to step on toes, but SDSU over SELA seems like a pretty good win.

Certainly better than beating EKU or Georgia State.

SELA won five Division 1 games last year and are 1-2 this year, so even though they got some votes in the poll, which helps their good win case, they're a middle of the pack team. Eastern Kentucky won eight Division 1 games last year, was in the playoff discussion, and was receiving votes in this past poll, so they're a good win.

Georgia State I went to great lengths to explain last week, haha. I don't think they're that good, but all FBS wins get counted. The good thing about that is, when you look at the How They Fared spreadsheet, it only shows the record against FBS schools, so 1-0 vs Kansas State shows up the same way as 1-0 vs Georgia State. By looking at the Good Wins/Bad Losses sheet, you can see who that FBS team is and weight it accordingly.

[superman7515]

Bumping this up for anyone waiting until late to fill out their ballot.

[Seawolf97]

Great work as always ! If Fordham keeps it up they will go through the PL like a freight train.

[ngineer]

Great job on providing this!

[dgreco]

How is Bryant a bad loss for Holy Cross?

[superman7515]

If North Dakota State lost to Bryant, would it be a bad loss?

[Twentysix]

If North Dakota State lost to Bryant, would it be a bad loss?

By that logic there are like 15 teams that wouldn't be a bad loss. Your list is far to small. :p

[dgreco]

By that logic there are like 15 teams that wouldn't be a bad loss. Your list is far to small. :p

exactly.

[dgreco]

update: Bryant is a bad loss, but Maine beats Bryant and they move into the Top 25.

[superman7515]

Congratulations to Maine.

[dgreco]

Congratulations to Maine.

They are fortunate they got to play a team like Bryant.

[superman7515]

Trust me, I'm a Delaware fan, I know all about scheduling early season cupcakes.

[Engineer86]

Trust me, I'm a Delaware fan, I know all about scheduling early season cupcakes.
Isn't time to change your tag line, or shouldn't it be after last week?

[superman7515]

Isn't time to change your tag line, or shouldn't it be after last week?

No cops only applies to mano y mano, lunch is always by invitation only and while there are some open invitations, it's typically difficult to get into, no homo. Any other questions I will have to refer you to my lawyer in Baltimore.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

update: Bryant is a bad loss, but Maine beats Bryant and they move into the Top 25.

Is Bryant their only win? Could it be that they are gaining momentum from previous wins and it's just now catching up to where they should really be now?

[citdog]

No cops only applies to mano y mano, lunch is always by invitation only and while there are some open invitations, it's typically difficult to get into, no homo. Any other questions I will have to refer you to my lawyer in Baltimore.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-KPGh3wysw