FCS over FBS possibilities - Week 3 2013

[bonarae]

So far, we have witnessed 11 different FCS teams upsetting FBS teams in the first two weeks of 2013, with one team (Georgia State) being the victim twice.

Here is the list of such games for September 14: (those games with upset potential IMO are bolded)
WIU at Minnesota
Fordham at Temple - long shot; Temple lost close to Houston.
Youngstown State at Michigan State
Stony Brook at Buffalo - Buffalo lost big to Baylor, and previously to Ohio State.
Cal Poly at Colorado State - after the humiliation by Fresno State, can the Mustangs rebound by putting the Rams down on the road?
Delaware at Navy
Wagner at Syracuse
Northern Colorado at Wyoming
Bethune-Cookman at Florida International - FIU is inconsistent in football.
Southern Utah at Washington State - quite a long shot because Wazzu upset the Trojan Horses using their defense
Northwestern State at Cincinnati
Nicholls at Louisiana (Lafayette) - can the Colonels roll once again against another FBS team? However, Louisiana lost by 21 to K-State who lost to NDSU.
Eastern Washington at Toledo - OK, the Rockets are 0-2 with losses to Florida and Mizzou... and EWU has enough offense for upset potential.
Lamar at Oklahoma State
Weber State at Utah State

[mainejeff]

I like Stony Brook and Eastern Washington.

[Gil Dobie]

Any of the bolded games are possible

[ValleyTalk]

YSU beat Pitt last year 31-17 and the year before it was 21-6 midway into the 4th quarter against the Spartans before Hess threw a pick-six to make it 28-6. Think YSU will keep it close against MSU for the simple fact the Spartans offense is rather bad this year and the Guins do not need to stop Le'veon Bell.

[penguinpower]

YSU beat Pitt last year 31-17 and the year before it was 21-6 midway into the 4th quarter against the Spartans before Hess threw a pick-six to make it 28-6. Think YSU will keep it close against MSU for the simple fact the Spartans offense is rather bad this year and the Guins do not need to stop Le'veon Bell.


I concur with that. However it will be extremely difficult to score on that defense. MSU defense has scored 4 of the 6 td's that MSU has scored this year. Some teams don't get a single defensive touchdown in an entire year let one 4 in 2 games. The have a national championship leave defense.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Eagles over Rockets. Book it. xnodx

[Vitojr130]

Eagles over Rockets. Book it. xnodx

After what I saw last weekend, I would say this is probably one of the safest bets a person can make. I thought EWU would be pretty beat down this year after losing some key players but it looks like I may be wrong.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

After what I saw last weekend, I would say this is probably one of the safest bets a person can make. I thought EWU would be pretty beat down this year after losing some key players but it looks like I may be wrong.

Pass rush is the main concern. The young backups at LB are proving to be more than capable, and we of course reloaded at WR. Just need to stay healthy. If we only win one of the next two though, I'd rather it be against SHSU.

[ValleyTalk]

I concur with that. However it will be extremely difficult to score on that defense. MSU defense has scored 4 of the 6 td's that MSU has scored this year. Some teams don't get a single defensive touchdown in an entire year let one 4 in 2 games. The have a national championship leave defense.

It is a relief for me that we are going up against a mediocre MSU offense. Our defense, granted it's against lackluster competition, still looks like it has the potential to be much better than what we saw under years 1-3 under Wolford. In their last 5 games dating back to last season, 5 straight wins may I add, they have given up just 46 points, which equates to 9.2 points per game. In the four games preceding this winning streak, all 4 of which were losses, the defense gave up 162 points, or 40.5 points per game. Hell they gave up 48 alone in Fargo last year to #1 NDSU at the time.

Now I know come MVFC play we won't be at 9.2 points per game, but I don't see us giving up 40.5 either. If we can average 21 points per game this year on defense, we have a chance at making the playoffs for the 1st time since 2006!

[JSUBison]

I'll add another vote for YSU over MSU. MSU looks absolutely horrible.

[melloware13]

I wouldn't be surprised with a Delaware upset at Navy, but expect it to be a close one. In 2 games so far, the Hens have allowed a total of 62 rushing yards, and are averaging 46.5 PPG. I'd expect a high scoring game, possibly within one possession either way.

[slostang]

Cal Poly at Colorado State - after the humiliation by Fresno State, can the Mustangs rebound by putting the
Cal Poly gave up two punt returns for TDs (first since since 2007) and fumbled on their own 29 yard line and dug too deep OFA hole. Cal Poly out gained Fresno State 416 yards to 370. Fresno State's offense put up 537 yards and 52 points against Rutgers last week. Cal Poly's D held tthem to 370 yards and 27 points. A 16 point loss to a boarder line top 25 FBS team with a Heisman hopeful at QB is hardly being humiliated.

The bad news is we lost our starting QB for the year. The good news is we may have found a better one in Chris Brown. In 1 1/2 quarters Brown passed for 189 yards and a TD and rushed for 39 yards with two TDs and a 2 pt conversion. I think Cal Poly coaches went with a 5th year QB when they had a far better athlete on the sideline. Brown reminds me a little of Vernon Adams at EWU. I look forward to seeing what he can do in 4 quarters against CSU.

[PAllen]

I wouldn't be surprised with a Delaware upset at Navy, but expect it to be a close one. In 2 games so far, the Hens have allowed a total of 62 rushing yards, and are averaging 46.5 PPG. I'd expect a high scoring game, possibly within one possession either way.

Sorry, Jacksonville and Delaware State aren't Navy.

[DoubleE]

YSU offense will make the game interesting. best offense sparty will have played so far. i think YSU can win

[Bisonwinagn]

I'll add another vote for YSU over MSU. MSU looks absolutely horrible.

Agreed I think this is a toss up game. I don't see MSU winning more than 2 or 3 big ten games this year.

[kdinva]

I like these........

Fordham at Temple
Youngstown State at Michigan State
Stony Brook at Buffalo .
Cal Poly at Colorado State
Bethune-Cookman at Florida International
Eastern Washington at Toledo

[Seawolf97]

Our defense and special teams will have to keep us in this one. Mother nature ( heat) and an explosive Baylor offense stopped the Bulls yesterday. Buffalo isn't as bad as the score showed.

[McNeese75]

MSU struggled with USF Saturday so Youngstown State could pull that rabbit out of the hat.

Nicholls against the Ohh la la could be interesting if they bring their week 2 game (not week 1). I will be pulling for the Colonels.

[skinny_uncle]

I like Stony Brook and Eastern Washington.

Either could happen.

[coover]

Cal Poly matches up very, very well with Colorado State and while a Cal Poly win would be an upset, I suspect that if the game were held in San Luis Obispo rather than Fort Collins, a Colorado State win would be an upset.

That said, the unfortunate injury of Poly's starting QB, the most experienced QB on the team ... he'll probably be out for the rest of the year ... may be a blessing rather than hurt them. His replacement, Chris Brown, is a tremendous athlete, and he demonstrated his ability against Fresno State. If he can do what he did against Fresno State, he just may be able to tear up most of the teams Poly will face this season including Colorado State, which, frankly, would be a very good FCS team, but they are a terrible FBS team.

Sagarin rates Poly as the 110th best DI team in the country, while he rates Colorado as the 120th best. Poly will go into this game very unhappy about their loss to Fresno State and will be highly motivated to win. That, of course, takes nothing away from Colorado State. After losses to two good FBS clubs, they may believe that their chances to get a win against Cal Poly is probably as good or better than against any team they have yet to play this season, though they do play at least 3 FBS clubs that may not be as good as the Mustangs, i.e. UTEP, Hawaii, and New Mexico.

But the biggest factor in favor of Cal Poly is that Colorado State's next game (September 21) is against Alabama. I wouldn't be surprised if the CSU staff and/or the team will overlook the Mustangs. They're playing the #1 team in the nation the next week, a very scary situation.

My guess is that Colorado State will be 0 - 4 after the Alabama game.

[bonarae]

I like these........

Fordham at Temple
Youngstown State at Michigan State
Stony Brook at Buffalo .
Cal Poly at Colorado State
Bethune-Cookman at Florida International
Eastern Washington at Toledo

I have revised my prognostications and the final 6 games that are realistic upset predictions are these games above.

[Hood]

Last time I went to the Nicholls @ ULL football game it was one of my worst experiences EVER has a fan (though I've had worse as a member of the marching band). We clearly stated we needed to sit in the visitors area, and were given "Student section" tickets with not a Colonel fan in sight. We wound up moving to where the team parents were sitting when the ticket checking guard moved.

Anyway, I'll be in Lafayette Saturday visiting family but will probably not attend the game. I'm not in the mood for legit fight challenges from people I can't take.

[ysubigred]

EWU and Stony Brook are a lock. xbowx

All depends on which YSU team shows up... YSU about a 47% chance to win xconfusedx

BC, Fordham, CP all less than 40% chance of winning.

xtwocentsx

[kalm]

I think we've got a shot, but we're on the road, a long ways from home, Toledo was 8-4 last year, went to a bowl game, have 16 starters back, and have only played Florida and Mizzou so far. Definitely not a lock.

[F'N Hawks]

EWU and Stony Brook are a lock. xbowxAll depends on which YSU team shows up... YSU about a 47% chance to win xconfusedxBC, Fordham, CP all less than 40% chance of winning.xtwocentsxShould YSU really be getting 26.5 vs Sparty? Seems like alot. Not sure Sparty can score 26.

[DSUrocks07]

FTR...Bethune-Cookman is favored (-2.5) against FIU

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fiusports/2013/09/fiu-favoredfor-a-few-minutes.html

[Bull Run]

Buffalo has played the 6th hardest schedule in college sports so far, Toledo has played the 5th hardest. Both are facing quality FCS teams and both are tired of losing.

WHen UConn lost to townson a commentator on our weekly UB show said he thought the loss by UConn would make it ahrder for Buffalo to beat them because now the Huskies would be hungrier. The same may be true in the SB@UB and EW@TOL games this week.

[penguinpower]

A guy on the YSU message board sums up what I think as well. He hits the nail on the head

"Professional bookmakers, who have no loyalty whatsoever beyond their bank accounts, think that Michigan State will win by 26.5 points. And yet FCS fans, ours and others, are actually picking us to win this game. This is getting really crazy. NDSU has a great defense. Can we all agree on that? Well, Michigan State has a better defense....much better. This will be a gigantic challenge. What pains me is that if Michigan State drubs us, a distinct possibility, uninformed FCS fans will now make us an object of ridicule. No such stigma gets attached to James Madison, who could not even defeat a bad Akron team."

This is a good analysis.

[UNDBIZ]

Washington St is not Southern Alabama. Cougars will roll SUU.

[bojeta]

Washington St is not Southern Alabama. Cougars will roll SUU.

After Washington State beat USC, I think picking SUU to win would be ridiculous. SUU is good this year; just not that good.

[Seawolf97]

Buffalo will be an uphill battle but winnable. They gave Ohio St. a fight, the heat did them in last week at Baylor.

[dudeitsaid]

I think we've got a shot, but we're on the road, a long ways from home, Toledo was 8-4 last year, went to a bowl game, have 16 starters back, and have only played Florida and Mizzou so far. Definitely not a lock.

Agree! And there is no way in heck Toledo is taking EWU lightly!

I don't know which teams will win. Any of them, or none of them. I won't be surprised either way. When these are wins, they are almost always still upsets, including if EWU beats Toledo. Each week, I've been surprised by how well some of the teams are playing the FBS, and many of the losses could have gone either way. I don't know which teams will pull it off, and I certainly think EWU, Stony Brook, Cal Poly, YSU, etc have a shot, but I am just going to say that I think there will be three FBS scalps this weekend from various FCS teams. And unfortunately, I don't think EWU will be one of them (fingers crossed, as when I am the pessimist, the Eagles usually prove me wrong!)

[dgtw]

Washington St is not Southern Alabama. Cougars will roll SUU.

South Alabama (not Southern) rebounded from their loss to SUU to beat Tulane last week.

[Bull Run]

Buffalo will be an uphill battle but winnable. They gave Ohio St. a fight, the heat did them in last week at Baylor.

If we lose to you guys I want Quinn Fired....

Fired out of a Cannon into the sun!

http://www.ubbullrun.com/2013/9/11/4719624/whos-afraid-of-the-big-bad-wolf

But That's not because I think Stony Brook "stinks" or you're beneath us. It's because it would be the last straw with what looks to be a terrible coaching hire incapable of moving our program forward.

Coker and Level worry me given what our defense has looked like this season.