When should the AGS Poll really start?

[putter]

Most people don't do enough research about who each teams return to create a solid pre-season poll and most base their picks on last years results. Should AGS start it's poll in, say week 3 or 4, to give teams and voters an actual resume' to base their votes on?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Most people don't do enough research about who each teams return to create a solid pre-season poll and most base their picks on last years results. Should AGS start it's poll in, say week 3 or 4, to give teams and voters an actual resume' to base their votes on?

That was always my thought when we were talking about starting the CS Poll That was starting a fresh poll and it didn't need to follow along the lines of what everyone else was doing. There are pluses to each style. clenzy used to make a good point on preseason polls in that they make those that are fairly into doing the voting begin thinking about things early and if you are wrong with your thoughts then you quickly change those things in the first few weeks anyway when surprised by how you were wrong.

Any surprise teams jump into this polls top 25 more quickly than most of the others. Look at SHSU a couple years ago to see proof of that. That kind of goes against the thinking that having a preseason poll means people aren't willing to dynamically change their thinking on these matters and reward the teams that should be rewarded.

Most importantly though, this poll has long been one of the most accurate out there and has a long of history of doing things this way so it won't be changing in regards to having a preseason poll and weeks 1-3 etc. Hell I'm in your camp on the matter and even I don't think this one should change.

[dbackjon]

4th week. Been harping on this for years.

People rate a team based on last year. Then, they refuse to drop a team "too many spots", even when that team lays an egg.


If voters would re-do from scratch their polls every week instead of being lazy and using the prior weeks as a guide, this wouldn't be an issue.

[MR. CHICKEN]

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[ursus arctos horribilis]

Most people don't do enough research about who each teams return to create a solid pre-season poll and most base their picks on last years results. Should AGS start it's poll in, say week 3 or 4, to give teams and voters an actual resume' to base their votes on?

Oh and I forgot to answer the "most people don't do enough research on who returns" etc. That might not hold so much water on AGS as it's a pretty large part of what's discussed in the offseason as far as the FCSD board. There are many threads on the subject so if you are reading you are doing research involuntarily. xlolx

[NoDak 4 Ever]

4th week. Been harping on this for years.

People rate a team based on last year. Then, they refuse to drop a team "too many spots", even when that team lays an egg.



If voters would re-do from scratch their polls every week instead of being lazy and using the prior weeks as a guide, this wouldn't be an issue.

<------- Lazy

[ursus arctos horribilis]

4th week. Been harping on this for years.

People rate a team based on last year. Then, they refuse to drop a team "too many spots", even when that team lays an egg.


If voters would re-do from scratch their polls every week instead of being lazy and using the prior weeks as a guide, this wouldn't be an issue.

I think you'll see this year that this is not nearly as big an issue as one would think. Most people are not beholden to that "dropping people too many spots" as I would have thought anyway.

[Professor Chaos]

If you're looking to judge a team based solely on their performance for that year even week 4 is too early. I don't have a problem starting with a preseason poll because it's nothing more than a discussion point at this stage of the year. If a voter doesn't want to do the research they're not going to be much better in week 4 than they'd be in the preseason.

[darell1976]

4th week. Been harping on this for years.

People rate a team based on last year. Then, they refuse to drop a team "too many spots", even when that team lays an egg.


If voters would re-do from scratch their polls every week instead of being lazy and using the prior weeks as a guide, this wouldn't be an issue.

Don't forget people picking the wrong school because it looks similar in name (North Dakota-North Dakota State, South Dakota-South Dakota State) maybe this should be changed to North Dakota State-University of North Dakota) that way the "we dropped due to pollsters picking the wrong Dakota" would be eliminated. The NCAA gets the two mixed up and I am sure people voting on here does to.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Don't forget people picking the wrong school because it looks similar in name (North Dakota-North Dakota State, South Dakota-South Dakota State) maybe this should be changed to North Dakota State-University of North Dakota) that way the "we dropped due to pollsters picking the wrong Dakota" would be eliminated. The NCAA gets the two mixed up and I am sure people voting on here does to.

That has not been a problem on any AGS ballots for two years now. It happened in the first couple weeks of the new system and then a check system was put in place which stopped and questioned anyone voting a similarly named team too highly without them being emailed and questioned on what they truly meant their vote to be. Delaware State, North Dakota, South Dakota, Jacksonville, etc. etc.

There are quite a few people that will be able to attest to this fact. It's irritating that I've explained this many times and yet you bring it up as if nothing was done to fix it.

[BEAR]

Heck, the NCAA can't even get the right North Dakota school right... xlolx

I think polls should start preseason for results based on last year AND with research about who's returning and what recruits they have coming in to fill holes etc..

That would require extensive research by fans of other teams so let me suggest a thread be created BEFORE we vote on the polls discussing each team. Most of the top ten teams are usually obvious with little disagreement while the last 15 are tougher to figure out. For example, most can say NDSU should be #1 because of their natty, returning players and recruting class. #2, possibly Sam Houston, natty runner up, lost some really good defensive players but recruited really well. Working your way down the ever-changing list you can look at the 3 important things plus whatever you need to add...

[darell1976]

That has not been a problem on any AGS ballots for two years now. It happened in the first couple weeks of the new system and then a check system was put in place which stopped and questioned anyone voting a similarly named team too highly without them being emailed and questioned on what they truly meant their vote to be. Delaware State, North Dakota, South Dakota, Jacksonville, etc. etc.

There are quite a few people that will be able to attest to this fact. It's irritating that I've explained this many times and yet you bring it up as if nothing was done to fix it.

Holy **** calm down dude. I am just thinking sometime now NDSU won't be #1 and UND won't be unranked and the problem will happen. So if UND is #13 and NDSU is #14 there won't be issues? Sorry to get you in a pissy mood.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Holy **** calm down dude. I am just thinking sometime now NDSU won't be #1 and UND won't be unranked and the problem will happen. So if UND is #13 and NDSU is #14 there won't be issues? Sorry to get you in a pissy mood. So if you explained this many times can you link me to the post or threads...I must have missed that.

I'm not gonna go search the threads for you darrel. You and LB were having a pissing match over it and he was saying that you guys were getting NDSU's votes to be in the poll weeks after the problem was identified and YOU saw it because you replied to him that it was not happening if that helps ya remember it. Both teams were in the poll at that time and NDSU wasn't the clear #1 in fact somewhere in the 10 range with UND in the 20's so the situation you describe above has already sort of happened...and if teams were right next to each other I think very few people will not be able to keep that straight but if it were to make a material difference they would be emailed anyway. Hope that info. helps in the search. It may have also happened with several other Bison fans as well.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Heck, the NCAA can't even get the right North Dakota school right... xlolx

I think polls should start preseason for results based on last year AND with research about who's returning and what recruits they have coming in to fill holes etc..

That would require extensive research by fans of other teams so let me suggest a thread be created BEFORE we vote on the polls discussing each team.


Do you mean something like this? xlolx

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?134547-AGS-Preseason-Ballot

[darell1976]

I'm not gonna go search the threads for you darrel. You and LB were having a pissing match over it and he was saying that you guys were getting NDSU's votes to be in the poll weeks after the problem was identified and YOU saw it because you replied to him that it was not happening if that helps ya remember it. Both teams were in the poll at that time and NDSU wasn't the clear #1 in fact somewhere in the 10 range with UND in the 20's so the situation you describe above has already sort of happened...and if teams were right next to each other I think very few people will not be able to keep that straight but if it were to make a material difference they would be emailed anyway. Hope that info. helps in the search. It may have also happened with several other Bison fans as well.

We argued about the FCS coaches poll SU went from 6 to 12 after a bye and UND entered the poll at 21 after a close loss to San Diego St. But as for emailing people to see if they got their vote straight sounds like more work than moving teams around to choose from so they aren't next to each other. But it's your board and I will respect how you guys handle it.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

We argued about the FCS coaches poll SU went from 6 to 12 after a bye and UND entered the poll at 21 after a close loss to San Diego St. But as for emailing people to see if they got their vote straight sounds like more work than moving teams around to choose from so they aren't next to each other. But it's your board and I will respect how you guys handle it.

I'm sure you did argue on the FCS coaches poll. Also remember it happening it on the AGS Poll thread as I would have felt no reason to explain why or how the coaches did it unless it was specifically about the AGS Poll.

Sometimes things seem easy until you actually do them. Since it rarely happens now it's really not that tough an email task.

If interested though let me know and I'll send ya a copy to work on for a while and see if you think it's worth the time?

[darell1976]

I'm sure you did argue on the FCS coaches poll. Also remember it happening it on the AGS Poll thread as I would have felt no reason to explain why or how the coaches did it unless it was specifically about the AGS Poll.

Sometimes things seem easy until you actually do them. Since it rarely happens now it's really not that tough an email task.

If interested though let me know and I'll send ya a copy to work on for a while and see if you think it's worth the time?

Sorry teach, no homework tonight...its still summer break.

[bluehenbillk]

I've always advocated polls to start after September games have finished. My poll fluctuates greatly in September as pretenders and contenders start to show their true colors.

[Ivytalk]

I've always advocated polls to start after September games have finished. My poll fluctuates greatly in September as pretenders and contenders start to show their true colors.

I agree with starting the AGS Poll later. It would teach "the big polls" a thing or two.xwhistlex

[bojeta]

On the contrary.... Actually picking the teams before the season starts lets us see who really did their homework, and who's just guessing. Sure, a fair percentage will get it wrong, and even some who do their homework will be surprised, but that's half the fun of the early picks. We will always have weeks three, four, five etc. to make adjustments.

[heath]

That was always my thought when we were talking about starting the CS Poll That was starting a fresh poll and it didn't need to follow along the lines of what everyone else was doing. There are pluses to each style. clenzy used to make a good point on preseason polls in that they make those that are fairly into doing the voting begin thinking about things early and if you are wrong with your thoughts then you quickly change those things in the first few weeks anyway when surprised by how you were wrong.

Any surprise teams jump into this polls top 25 more quickly than most of the others. Look at SHSU a couple years ago to see proof of that. That kind of goes against the thinking that having a preseason poll means people aren't willing to dynamically change their thinking on these matters and reward the teams that should be rewarded.

Most importantly though, this poll has long been one of the most accurate out there and has a long of history of doing things this way so it won't be changing in regards to having a preseason poll and weeks 1-3 etc. Hell I'm in your camp on the matter and even I don't think this one should change.

I thought I mentioned the same thing a year or two ago and got blasted, If not here,may have been elsewhere. Might have been the year AGS picked EWU #1 preseason. Whats wrong with waiting until October and get an accurate poll?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I thought I mentioned the same thing a year or two ago and got blasted, If not here,may have been elsewhere. Might have been the year AGS picked EWU #1 preseason. Whats wrong with waiting until October and get an accurate poll?

As I've said before I think you take the preseason poll way more to heart than most of us. Most of us are not beholden to our early miscalculations in terms of someone falling short like EWU did.

What's wrong with having early polls that drive discussions, differing points of view, and so forth so that October poll will be as good and the voters as informed as possible?

Either way there is still a poll in October. This way you have just had many discussions on the various pluses and minuses of scheduling, and every other little thing possible that would have been far less likely to occur had you not had the polls. I know there have been discussions that have made me look at some teams differently and either give them extra respect in the poll or even relax my respect on them and base it not just on a great record.

I have nothing against a poll starting later and waiting on more information before starting and as I said have argued for that on CS when we were setting that one up.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I thought I mentioned the same thing a year or two ago and got blasted, If not here,may have been elsewhere. Might have been the year AGS picked EWU #1 preseason. Whats wrong with waiting until October and get an accurate poll?

By the end of the season no one cares about the early polls anyway. I have no problem with them, as has been mentioned up thread, they're good for driving discussion and maybe getting people to pay attention to teams that they might otherwise sleep on.

As for methodology, whether you start from scratch each week or start with the pre-season/previous-year's-final and adjust up and down based on performance (or even use some other system like PF/PA compared against Sagarin ratings, etc) it doesn't really matter - all opinions and methods are valid, and the poll will reflect a general consensus.

[ngineer]

Doing the poll is part of the 'fun' on this site. Everyone knows the first few weeks have little meaning...though not completely meaningless. It's a great time for many people to start seeing some comparative scores and adjusting accordingly. It's only a poll. It has no impact on what happens the fourth week of November. It gives us 'fuel' to debate and debait...(;-)

[OhioHen]

In order to begin any sort of accurate comparative assessment of teams THIS season, no team should be eligible to receive votes until they have played at least three (3) games against teams who have played at least three (3) games against teams that have played at least three (3) games.

For many teams, this would mean week five (5) is the earliest that any value can be given to the comparison. Using "last week's poll" (or for week one the pre-season poll) as a "starting point" for rankings is inherently flawed.

[McNeese75]

If it ain't broke don't fix it!!!!

The entertainment factor and conversation generated here on the early polls far outweighs the arguments of those preaching a late start IMO.

[Professor Chaos]

In order to begin any sort of accurate comparative assessment of teams THIS season, no team should be eligible to receive votes until they have played at least three (3) games against teams who have played at least three (3) games against teams that have played at least three (3) games.

For many teams, this would mean week five (5) is the earliest that any value can be given to the comparison. Using "last week's poll" (or for week one the pre-season poll) as a "starting point" for rankings is inherently flawed.
Why 3 games? Are the first 3 games always reflective of the season as a whole? Polls are highly speculative whether it's the preseason or week 3. As the season progresses the polls become less speculative and more subjective but to suggest there's some magic number like 3 or 4 games is naïve. Unless you wait until the last quarter of the season to release a poll there's always going to be a high degree of speculation and personal bias. IMO holding off on releasing a poll is just an excuse for the voters to be lazy and it doesn't promote discussion and criticism of some voters' preconceived notions about the teams included/excluded in their early polls that may be incorrect.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

All this hand-wringing would be necessary if the poll actually MEANT something. Everybody lighten up. It all shakes out in the end, doesn't it?