Predicting the Socon Season

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

This is a "Monte-Carlo" style simulation of the SoCon season. Basically, you specify the percent chance of a win by each team in each of the 36 games among all 9 teams and the 21 games among the 7 eligible teams. Then you simulate 10000 seasons and count how many times each team has the best record. Then you simulate 10000 more seasons with just the 7 eligible teams and counted the number of times each team wins the championship.

Here are the percentages. It is the percent change the team in the row beats the team in the column.
http://i1351.photobucket.com/albums/p785/GSU_SoCon_FBS/socon_probs_zps39689ef2.jpg (http://s1351.photobucket.com/user/GSU_SoCon_FBS/media/socon_probs_zps39689ef2.jpg.html)

Here are the results...

Predicted Order of Finish
1. App_State
2. Ga_Sou
3. Wofford
4. Citadel
5. Chatt
6. Samford
7. Furman
8. Elon
9. W_Carolina
.....
App State had best record 2205 times, tied for best record 2217 times
Chattanooga had best record 544 times, tied for best record 1097 times
The Citadel had best record 497 times, tied for best record 1012 times
Elon had best record 1 times, tied for best record 13 times
Furman had best record 39 times, tied for best record 172 times
Georgia Southern had best record 1811 times, tied for best record 2079 times
Samford had best record 314 times, tied for best record 742 times
Western Carolina had best record 0 times, tied for best record 3 times
....
Over/Under for App State conference wins is 6
Over/Under for Chattanooga conference wins is 5
Over/Under for The Citadel conference wins is 5
Over/Under for Elon conference wins is 2
Over/Under for Furman conference wins is 3
Over/Under for Georgia Southern conference wins is 6
Over/Under for Samford conference wins is 4
Over/Under for Western Carolina conference wins is 1
Over/Under for Wofford conference wins is 5
-----------------------------------------
Now for Games only among eligible teams
-----------------------------------------
Championship was won outright 6286 times.
Championship was decided in head-to-head in 2-way tie 2398 times.
Had a 3-way or higher tie 1316 times.
.......
Over/Under for Chattanooga conference wins is 4
Over/Under for The Citadel conference wins is 4
Over/Under for Elon conference wins is 2
Over/Under for Furman conference wins is 3
Over/Under for Samford conference wins is 4
Over/Under for Western Carolina conference wins is 1
Over/Under for Wofford conference wins is 4
.......
Chattanooga wins championship 2242 times (outright 1556 times)
The Citadel wins championship 2277 times (outright 1685 times)
Elon wins championship 48 times (outright 22 times)
Furman wins championship 312 times (outright 195 times)
Samford wins championship 1479 times (outright 1021 times)
Western carolina wins championship 22 times (outright 7 times)
Wofford wins championship 2304 times (outright 1800 times)

[CID1990]

I would scramble that top five around in some controversial ways.


Sent from the center of the universe.

[smallcollegefbfan]

This is a "Monte-Carlo" style simulation of the SoCon season. Basically, you specify the percent chance of a win by each team in each of the 36 games among all 9 teams and the 21 games among the 7 eligible teams. Then you simulate 10000 seasons and count how many times each team has the best record. Then you simulate 10000 more seasons with just the 7 eligible teams and counted the number of times each team wins the championship.

Here are the percentages. It is the percent change the team in the row beats the team in the column.
http://i1351.photobucket.com/albums/p785/GSU_SoCon_FBS/socon_probs_zps39689ef2.jpg (http://s1351.photobucket.com/user/GSU_SoCon_FBS/media/socon_probs_zps39689ef2.jpg.html)

Here are the results...

Predicted Order of Finish
1. App_State
2. Ga_Sou
3. Wofford
4. Citadel
5. Chatt
6. Samford
7. Furman
8. Elon
9. W_Carolina
.....
App State had best record 2205 times, tied for best record 2217 times
Chattanooga had best record 544 times, tied for best record 1097 times
The Citadel had best record 497 times, tied for best record 1012 times
Elon had best record 1 times, tied for best record 13 times
Furman had best record 39 times, tied for best record 172 times
Georgia Southern had best record 1811 times, tied for best record 2079 times
Samford had best record 314 times, tied for best record 742 times
Western Carolina had best record 0 times, tied for best record 3 times
....
Over/Under for App State conference wins is 6
Over/Under for Chattanooga conference wins is 5
Over/Under for The Citadel conference wins is 5
Over/Under for Elon conference wins is 2
Over/Under for Furman conference wins is 3
Over/Under for Georgia Southern conference wins is 6
Over/Under for Samford conference wins is 4
Over/Under for Western Carolina conference wins is 1
Over/Under for Wofford conference wins is 5
-----------------------------------------
Now for Games only among eligible teams
-----------------------------------------
Championship was won outright 6286 times.
Championship was decided in head-to-head in 2-way tie 2398 times.
Had a 3-way or higher tie 1316 times.
.......
Over/Under for Chattanooga conference wins is 4
Over/Under for The Citadel conference wins is 4
Over/Under for Elon conference wins is 2
Over/Under for Furman conference wins is 3
Over/Under for Samford conference wins is 4
Over/Under for Western Carolina conference wins is 1
Over/Under for Wofford conference wins is 4
.......
Chattanooga wins championship 2242 times (outright 1556 times)
The Citadel wins championship 2277 times (outright 1685 times)
Elon wins championship 48 times (outright 22 times)
Furman wins championship 312 times (outright 195 times)
Samford wins championship 1479 times (outright 1021 times)
Western carolina wins championship 22 times (outright 7 times)
Wofford wins championship 2304 times (outright 1800 times)

Very nicely done! I'm a visual learner so I like seeing these things. I would flip App and GSU but we all know at the end of the day they are just going to be spoilers for other teams hoping to have a beefed up record and could take a team from 9-3 to 7-5 or end up being nice wins for one of these teams who hasn't broken through while they were eligible for the SoCon crown.

One thing I believe will happen is that one of Wofford/Chatty/Samford/Citadel is going to end up falling behind and 3 of those 4 end up being in the 2/3 to 5 range and one of them ends up with just 2 conference wins. I think all of them are solid teams though. You could argue that the SoCon has 5-6 playofs caliber teams easily, including App and GSU. I think 2 end up in the playoffs for sure with 3 being a likely number. It will be interesting to see if App and GSU dominate everyone or if someone else can unseat them. You can't forget Furman either. They are always a team who could surprise and I know they have some talent.

[Lehigh'98]

Where did you come up with the percentages? Is WCU really that bad that they lose 198/200 games to GSU and ASU? Elon 9/10 to GSU, APP & Wofford? How did you run the simulation? Do you need special code?

[blueballs]

That looks about right. I would rate App as a slight favorite over GS because they play in Boone this year. Both should be very, very good and if eligible would be in the NC discussion.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Where did you come up with the percentages? Is WCU really that bad that they lose 198/200 games to GSU and ASU? Elon 9/10 to GSU, APP & Wofford? How did you run the simulation? Do you need special code?

Basically, my guess based on recent history, home field advantage, and returning players.

[PaladinFan]

That looks about right. I would rate App as a slight favorite over GS because they play in Boone this year. Both should be very, very good and if eligible would be in the NC discussion.

App does get GSU at home. The have a tough road schedule this season, though.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

App does get GSU at home. The have a tough road schedule this season, though.

App has GSU, Samford, and Chatty at home. El Cid could be tough in Charleston, and even though they have Wofford on the road Wofford is one team that pretty much plays equally well at home and on the road. I think the schedule works in their favor IMO.

[GlassOnion]

I cant see how App could have gotten a better home schedule. Wofford has no Brietenstein, and has surrendered the brains behind their defense to App, The Citadel has already filled their quota of 1 victory for the decade, and Furman, doesn't exactly scare me, as long as our starting LB keeps his helmet on.

From what I saw last year and see returning, GSU, Samford and Chatty are the 3 teams I'd have chosen to have in KBS this year.

[Saint3333]

Hoping for a cool weather SC road swing this year.

Citadel will certainly request we wear our black unis.

[PaladinFan]

I cant see how App could have gotten a better home schedule. Wofford has no Brietenstein, and has surrendered the brains behind their defense to App, The Citadel has already filled their quota of 1 victory for the decade, and Furman, doesn't exactly scare me, as long as our starting LB keeps his helmet on.

From what I saw last year and see returning, GSU, Samford and Chatty are the 3 teams I'd have chosen to have in KBS this year.

Perhaps. App State has historically struggled against the South Carolina teams on the road. They are eight games under .500 at Furman (plus one tie), and four games under .500 in Spartanburg. App lost on the road to both schools in 2011. They do have a slight advantage in Charleston (four games over .500 - despite for years being the much better team), but that is still a tough road game against a team that wore App out last season.

So, I do agree that ASU will get the teams that are likely the preseason favorites at home. I just note that road games against UTC and Samford have not been as tough historically for them as playing in South Carolina.

[FCSfan]

with app st and ga so out of the conference title mix I think teams may (and this may be a stretch) view those 2 games as OOC dates. tryn to win but not the end of the world if it doesn't happen. is that crazy?

[PaladinFan]

with app st and ga so out of the conference title mix I think teams may (and this may be a stretch) view those 2 games as OOC dates. tryn to win but not the end of the world if it doesn't happen. is that crazy?

If you think Furman doesn't want to stomp a mudhole in App State in what could likely be their last trip to Paladin Stadium, you're nuts.

Granted, they are essentially out of conference games. Still, most SoCon fans want to beat App and GSU just to see the look on their faces. Those two fan bases have great "how did we lose?" looks leaving a stadium. Had I thought about it, I would have made a coffee table book.

[eaglewraith]

with app st and ga so out of the conference title mix I think teams may (and this may be a stretch) view those 2 games as OOC dates. tryn to win but not the end of the world if it doesn't happen. is that crazy?

They better hope there are no tiebreaker scenarios then. App's and our records against the teams will matter in that case.

[asucrutch23]

If you think Furman doesn't want to stomp a mudhole in App State in what could likely be their last trip to Paladin Stadium, you're nuts.

Granted, they are essentially out of conference games. Still, most SoCon fans want to beat App and GSU just to see the look on their faces. Those two fan bases have great "how did we lose?" looks leaving a stadium. Had I thought about it, I would have made a coffee table book.

We also have great "how did we win?" faces!


http://youtu.be/mAycXbA2ZhE





...and again in 2005 (http://youtu.be/s2x-7n0MOvk)





:D:D

[FCSfan]

true and i'd be willing to bet any remaining socon team would sacrifice much to see "THOSE" faces one last time. just thought in the heat of the socon run if coaches would either sit banged up players or retain some secrets that normally wouldn't with these two foes. you're probably right though

[citdog]

If you think Furman doesn't want to stomp a mudhole in App State in what could likely be their last trip to Paladin Stadium, you're nuts.

Granted, they are essentially out of conference games. Still, most SoCon fans want to beat App and GSU just to see the look on their faces. Those two fan bases have great "how did we lose?" looks leaving a stadium. Had I thought about it, I would have made a coffee table book.

here's a good example!



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Ees0HMS8I

[citdog]

here's another!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4YLUVDPFbQ

[BisonFan02]

here's another!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4YLUVDPFbQ

....wait for it......

[NoDak 4 Ever]

You clearly have no idea what you're talking about. chattown has UTC going undefeated this year. That will win the SoCon for them.

[FCSfan]

just curious....how many times has this chattown fella predicted the mocs to be socon champs?

[Mountaineer]

just curious....how many times has this chattown fella predicted the mocs to be socon champs?

Every year so far. Then he disappears midway through the season. xlolx

[FCSfan]

I think it's fair to say UTC, Furman and Citadel will mostly improve. Wofford is the question mark. they seem to find a way each year but it has to be proven on the field. all four have a few key defensive spots to replace but it doesn't mean weakness. Wofford is the only one of the 4 that isn't sure to improve offensively. it is interesting though in college football when an all American leaves (like Breitenstein) that others that have been lying in wait excel.

[Horseshoe App]

I guess the miracle at The Citadel happened in 2012. They beat GSU and ASU. The sad thing is they could not even make the playoffs. Where is your video for that? Typical Citadel. They show a glimmer of hope then choke like a pack of yellow dogs.

here's another!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4YLUVDPFbQ

[Apphole]

I guess the miracle at The Citadel happened in 2012. They beat GSU and ASU. The sad thing is they could not even make the playoffs. Where is your video for that? Typical Citadel. They show a glimmer of hope then choke like a pack of yellow dogs.

What else would you expect from a bastard, faux military school?

[Eaglesrus]

here's a good example!



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Ees0HMS8I

A good example of what? All I see is a bunch of Citadel boys acting like they just won the national championship. Of course, beating GA Southern is about as close as y'all get, even if it was the second game of the season, seeing as how you can only manage to make the playoffs about once a decade.

[BisonFan02]

I guess the miracle at The Citadel happened in 2012. They beat GSU and ASU. The sad thing is they could not even make the playoffs. Where is your video for that? Typical Citadel. They show a glimmer of hope then choke like a pack of yellow dogs.

........wait for it........

[Horseshoe App]

I had to put bait on the hook

........wait for it........

[eaglewraith]

here's a good example!



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Ees0HMS8I

Looking at the stats from that game, it's a pretty justified feeling cause there's no way you should have won. The reason your fans acted that way is that they were so surprised they won.

[PaladinFan]

We also have great "how did we win?" faces!


http://youtu.be/mAycXbA2ZhE





...and again in 2005 (http://youtu.be/s2x-7n0MOvk)





:D:D

App has a few notches on their belt from games where Furman snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

[walliver]

I think it's fair to say UTC, Furman and Citadel will mostly improve. Wofford is the question mark. they seem to find a way each year but it has to be proven on the field. all four have a few key defensive spots to replace but it doesn't mean weakness. Wofford is the only one of the 4 that isn't sure to improve offensively. it is interesting though in college football when an all American leaves (like Breitenstein) that others that have been lying in wait excel.

We will obviously lose a LOT at FB. EB's replacement is quite competent, and the hope is that our young QB's can bring back the real option and bring a stable of very good RB's back into the game. There is also talk of a more Oregonesque offense this year.

I hope we do well,but ... every 4-5 years, Mike Ayers has a bad (rebuilding) team (but will still beat The Citadel).

[PaladinFan]

We will obviously lose a LOT at FB. EB's replacement is quite competent, and the hope is that our young QB's can bring back the real option and bring a stable of very good RB's back into the game. There is also talk of a more Oregonesque offense this year.

I hope we do well,but ... every 4-5 years, Mike Ayers has a bad (rebuilding) team (but will still beat The Citadel).

I agree they have talent returning. Still, you don't just replace a great player.

[blueballs]

We will obviously lose a LOT at FB. EB's replacement is quite competent, and the hope is that our young QB's can bring back the real option and bring a stable of very good RB's back into the game. There is also talk of a more Oregonesque offense this year.

I hope we do well,but ... every 4-5 years, Mike Ayers has a bad (rebuilding) team (but will still beat The Citadel).

I thought your biggest issue offensively last year was lack of overall team speed which led to an over reliance on EB between the tackles. That is something that your staff really needs to address.

I remember watching the first three plays of Wofford/GSU last year and turning to EaglesDare, GSC75, and EagleGus2 and stating- correctly- that Wofford wouldn't be able to get in the end zone against GSU because GSU's defense was faster than Wofford's offense.

It really hurt y'all against NDSU in the QFs too.

[PaladinFan]

I thought your biggest issue offensively last year was lack of overall team speed which led to an over reliance on EB between the tackles. That is something that your staff really needs to address.

I remember watching the first three plays of Wofford/GSU last year and turning to EaglesDare, GSC75, and EagleGus2 and stating- correctly- that Wofford wouldn't be able to get in the end zone against GSU because GSU's defense was faster than Wofford's offense.

It really hurt y'all against NDSU in the QFs too.

You note perhaps the biggest adjustment for Wofford going forward. It is no secret that the Terriers are usually less athletic than their opponents. What is going to be interesting is how Wofford adjusts to a defense that no longer has to focus the entire game on stopping Britenstein. Some of those outside running lanes may not be there when teams can loosen up between the tackles.

I was surprised, but I went back and looked at the schedule last year, and the Terriers offense may have been closer to average, even with Britenstein. They had great offensive performances against Lincoln (non-FCS), GWU (Big South), Elon and WCU (two SoCon teams that were blown out by just about everyone, including 3 win Furman). Outside of those four teams (the four easiest games on the schedule and the first four games of the season), Wofford managed to exceed 21 points just twice (38 against App State and 23 against UNH).

[GlassOnion]

IMO the biggest impact from the loss of EB will be the 3rd down conversions. It takes a lot of pressure off of the offense, and defense for that matter, when you've got a superman rushing the ball on 3rd down, and giving Woffy a slew of 1st downs every single game that they really had no business getting.

You just don't replace a guy like EB, who can get hit behind the LOS, yet fall forward for 5 or 10 yards.

And just an interesting note, Wofford's #2 and #3 rushers accounted for just 473 and 380 yards.

[citdog]

Looking at the stats from that game, it's a pretty justified feeling cause there's no way you should have won. The reason your fans acted that way is that they were so surprised they won.

Cadets 23.......pig's ass, ga 21

all that matters is the "W" baby!

[citdog]

A good example of what? All I see is a bunch of Citadel boys acting like they just won the national championship. Of course, beating GA Southern is about as close as y'all get, even if it was the second game of the season, seeing as how you can only manage to make the playoffs about once a decade.


see above post for clarification