PATSY RATINGS 2013 - GEORGETOWN

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2013/05/patsy-ratings-georgetowns-class-of-2017.html

THE RATINGS RACE WITH 0 TO GO:

COLGATE - 73
FORDHAM - 70
BUCKNELL - 51
LEHIGH - 51
LAFAYETTE - 49
HOLY CROSS - 34
GEORGETOWN - 29

[van]

Yikes, cue DFW

[RichH2]

Kelly has a proven eye for skill position talent. I'd give him the benefit forthose positions . Otherwise,class is unremarkable. Think it will give Hoyas some depth. Still a dangerous squad at times.

[carney2]

Depressing, but another good job. Thanks, LFN.

[hoyapigskin]

I am willing to bet that Georgetown finishes 8-3 best case or 7-4 worse case and finishes no lower than 3rd in the Patriot League in 2013. Also, if anyone bothered to watch the links on each of the class of 2017 Georgetown recruits you would have recognized there are more than few talented football players. Buckman, Ledford, Hardaway, Loughery, T. Williams and M. Williams are going to be solid and equal to or better than similar position players that Colgate or Fordham signed. I like this class and I like our chances in 2013 as well. xblehxxblehxxblehx

[CFBfan]

I am willing to bet that Georgetown finishes 8-3 best case or 7-4 worse case and finishes no lower than 3rd in the Patriot League in 2013. Also, if anyone bothered to watch the links on each of the class of 2017 Georgetown recruits you would have recognized there are more than few talented football players. Buckman, Ledford, Hardaway, Loughery, T. Williams and M. Williams are going to be solid and equal to or better than similar position players that Colgate or Fordham signed. I like this class and I like our chances in 2013 as well. xblehxxblehxxblehx

Just look at last year and you know that is not a wise bet pigskin. AND beyond the players you must consider the quality of the coaching staff....not just Kelly but the ENTIRE staff and they are NOT very good!!!
There is a reason that Macari has transfered out (bad academic secision on his part but let's stick to football only here).

[hoyapigskin]

Just look at last year and you know that is not a wise bet pigskin. AND beyond the players you must consider the quality of the coaching staff....not just Kelly but the ENTIRE staff and they are NOT very good!!!
There is a reason that Macari has transfered out (bad academic secision on his part but let's stick to football only here).

Last year our starting QB was hurt on play 4 of the season...by the 5th game we were on our 4th QB due to injuries. Kemph is healthy now and will be our starter. We will open up a faster pace offense that I witnessed at the Spring Game and we will surprise some teams. I will send you my cash to hold on the 7-4 season if you want the wager.xnodxxnodxxnodx

[hoyapigskin]

Just look at last year and you know that is not a wise bet pigskin. AND beyond the players you must consider the quality of the coaching staff....not just Kelly but the ENTIRE staff and they are NOT very good!!!
There is a reason that Macari has transfered out (bad academic secision on his part but let's stick to football only here).

8 returners on Defense and 7 on Offense...McCabe is obviously a huge loss but I like our chance both OOC and in Patriot play.

[hoyapigskin]

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2013/05/patsy-ratings-georgetowns-class-of-2017.html

THE RATINGS RACE WITH 0 TO GO:

COLGATE - 73
FORDHAM - 70
BUCKNELL - 51
LEHIGH - 51
LAFAYETTE - 49
HOLY CROSS - 34
GEORGETOWN - 29

Some of your facts and reasoning on the 2017 Georgetown class are flawed and/or inaccurate. I like this class and feel Kelly and team did a fairly good job despite the headwind that they were flying into.

Looking at the films of these guys as well as the film on the recruits at Colgate, Lehigh and Fordham...I like our top 7 vs. the top 7 of those schools.

Time will tell.

[CFBfan]

Last year our starting QB was hurt on play 4 of the season...by the 5th game we were on our 4th QB due to injuries. Kemph is healthy now and will be our starter. We will open up a faster pace offense that I witnessed at the Spring Game and we will surprise some teams. I will send you my cash to hold on the 7-4 season if you want the wager.xnodxxnodxxnodx

EXACTLY and the OC was exposed as incompetent!

[CFBfan]

Some of your facts and reasoning on the 2017 Georgetown class are flawed and/or inaccurate. I like this class and feel Kelly and team did a fairly good job despite the headwind that they were flying into.

Looking at the films of these guys as well as the film on the recruits at Colgate, Lehigh and Fordham...I like our top 7 vs. the top 7 of those schools.

Time will tell.

pigskin i know for a fact that Gate and LU got kids that Kelly wanted very badly but couldn't reel in.

[van]

Last year our starting QB was hurt on play 4 of the season...by the 5th game we were on our 4th QB due to injuries. Kemph is healthy now and will be our starter. We will open up a faster pace offense that I witnessed at the Spring Game and we will surprise some teams. I will send you my cash to hold on the 7-4 season if you want the wager.xnodxxnodxxnodx

Nice to see some optimism from Hoya land. welcome aboard pigskin!

[breezy]

While I enjoy the thorough analysis that accompanied the Patsy Ratings for each PL team, I think it is fair to register one point of disagreement. True, Georgetown loses two high-quality players to graduation (which leads me to think that even though the Hoyas return a substantial number of starters on each side of the ball as well as a healthy QB, they still face an uphill climb in the PL race this fall). However, it is somewhat unfair to measure this recruiting class by the need to replace those two players. The replacements for those players are going to come from the underclassmen who were on the team last year, not from the incoming recruit class. Maybe (and I don't know, because I am not really familiar with Georgetown's roster) the Hoyas have sufficient players for those positions and felt there were other needs that had to be addressed. Only two LBs? Only one DB? That ignores the possibility that Georgetown has numerous players at each position already on the roster (and, it may be hoped for Georgetown's sake, ready to step up and take over those spots).

Nevertheless, a solid job by LFN on all the Patsy Ratings this year.

[RichH2]

Good points breezy. Applies to each team. Unfortunately, while Hoyas showed ridiculous depth at QB,they did not show much anywhere else. The drop off was steep beyond starters. None of us have great depth everywhere, GU has little depth anywhere. I still say they will be dangerous at times next season.

[Go...gate]

I am willing to bet that Georgetown finishes 8-3 best case or 7-4 worse case and finishes no lower than 3rd in the Patriot League in 2013. Also, if anyone bothered to watch the links on each of the class of 2017 Georgetown recruits you would have recognized there are more than few talented football players. Buckman, Ledford, Hardaway, Loughery, T. Williams and M. Williams are going to be solid and equal to or better than similar position players that Colgate or Fordham signed. I like this class and I like our chances in 2013 as well. xblehxxblehxxblehx

I hope you are right and that Georgetown has a fine season. It would be good for the conference.

[heath]

I am willing to bet that Georgetown finishes 8-3 best case or 7-4 worse case and finishes no lower than 3rd in the Patriot League in 2013. Also, if anyone bothered to watch the links on each of the class of 2017 Georgetown recruits you would have recognized there are more than few talented football players. Buckman, Ledford, Hardaway, Loughery, T. Williams and M. Williams are going to be solid and equal to or better than similar position players that Colgate or Fordham signed. I like this class and I like our chances in 2013 as well. xblehxxblehxxblehx

Like your enthusiasm, but IF Georgetown was going to make noise it was in the past. The problem with their recruiting is they spend TOO much time looking at the private schools,rather than focusing on the public schools where many kids would be available. With their schedule this year.............6 wins is a great year.

[Bogus Megapardus]

I am willing to bet that Georgetown finishes 8-3


I hope you are right and that Georgetown has a fine season. It would be good for the conference.

I hope the Hoyas do well, too but do you care to break down those anticipated wins and losses for us? Here's the Hoya's 2013 schedule:

08/31/13 at Wagner
09/07/13 vs. Davidson
09/14/13 vs. Marist
09/21/13 at Brown
09/28/13 vs. Princeton
10/12/13 vs. Fordham
10/19/13 at Lehigh
10/26/13 vs. Colgate
11/02/13 vs. Lafayette
11/16/13 at Bucknell
11/23/13 at Holy Cross

I'll give you two of the first three, but after that, Georgetown will win all but two? I'd wager that 4-4 or 3-5 over that stretch is more like it.

[hoyapigskin]

I hope the Hoyas do well, too but do you care to break down those anticipated wins and losses for us? Here's the Hoya's 2013 schedule:

08/31/13 at Wagner
09/07/13 vs. Davidson
09/14/13 vs. Marist
09/21/13 at Brown
09/28/13 vs. Princeton
10/12/13 vs. Fordham
10/19/13 at Lehigh
10/26/13 vs. Colgate
11/02/13 vs. Lafayette
11/16/13 at Bucknell
11/23/13 at Holy Cross

I'll give you two of the first three, but after that, Georgetown will win all but two? I'd wager that 4-4 or 3-5 over that stretch is more like it.

I would be happy to break their schedule down:

Wagner will be close but I concede that we might lose this one 34-31
Davidson is a win 35-14
Marist is a win 27-17
Brown is a win 34-27
Princeton is a win 31-24
Fordham close loss 38-35
Lehigh is a win 28-21
Colgate is a loss 42-31
Lafayette is a win 38-17
Bucknell is a win 28-10
Holy Cross is a win 28-24

These are my predictions...obviously the close ones can go either way. Georgetown 8-3 or worse case 7-4! GO HOYAS!!!!:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:oxlolxxlolxxlolxxlol xxlolx

[hoyapigskin]

pigskin i know for a fact that Gate and LU got kids that Kelly wanted very badly but couldn't reel in.

I also know of 4 players that were offered by multiple Ivy and PL schools and decided on Georgetown to have a better collegiate experience. Georgetown did not suffer as much as people want to think in regard to the scholarship issue. Hoyas will make NOISE in the PL this season!

[CFBfan]

I would be happy to break their schedule down:

Wagner will be close but I concede that we might lose this one 34-31
Davidson is a win 35-14
Marist is a win 27-17
Brown is a win 34-27
Princeton is a win 31-24
Fordham close loss 38-35
Lehigh is a win 28-21
Colgate is a loss 42-31
Lafayette is a win 38-17
Bucknell is a win 28-10
Holy Cross is a win 28-24

These are my predictions...obviously the close ones can go either way. Georgetown 8-3 or worse case 7-4! GO HOYAS!!!!:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:o:oxlolxxlolxxlolxxlol xxlolx

love your optimism, i have been a staunch supporter/defender of the hoyas on this board for a number of years now with little support!!
however the decline seems unavoidable and what most concerns me this year is the ever diminishing talent in the coaching staff (not kelly or sgarlata but the rest). The OC and OL coaches brought over from Columbia are not good!
Brown is on the road and I don't see a win there, same for Cross and I can't see GU beating LU. You've gotta hope the long trek down from Hamilton takes it's toll on Gate.

[DFW HOYA]

Some interesting points here. A few thoughts:

1. LFN may have been generous with the 29 points offered on this class. It's an unbalanced list which reflects that Georgetown lost most of the head to head battles for recruits and back-filled the class with the AI-qualified talent it could. It goes without saying there are kids that Georgetown can't even look at which can fill Fordham's bands, but the scholarship disparity was a body blow to filling the longer term needs of this class, particularly skill positions. It's not that Georgetown is ceding the top 90 PL quality recruits (e.g., 15 x 6 teams) and starts at #91, but if the Hoyas are recruiting among five strong candidates and scholarships pick off each of them, the 4.0 kid from a small prep school fills a role but not necessarily a need.

(It was mentioned above why Georgetown doesn't recruit more from public schools. I'm sure they do, but with an average class rank of the top 4% of the class for the pool at large, the number of public high school recruits meeting that number AND that hasn't received a scholarship offer elsewhere AND can afford to attend Georgetown on need is a very limited number. Many private and prep schools don't rank and this opens the door to more of them within the Ivy Index.)

But this list is disappointing on the distribution. Any team with 4 or 5 returning QB's doesn't need to recruit three more, period. A team with two returning kickers probably doesn't need three more. A team losing five WR's should have done much better than a converted QB and two unrated wideouts, but skill positions are where scholarship offers (or lack thereof) show the most impact. And down the stretch, if you've lost out on recruits 1,2,3, and 4, you're left recruiting for bands. The bio for Georgetown's largest recruit, a 275 lb. OL, is illustrative: "A one-year letterwinner in football, starting all 11 games during his senior season at left tackle...Was deemed an AP Scholar by the College Board."

This is certainly not a criticism of the staff because these are the cards they are dealt. But combine the league's highest AI with no means to effectively match offers by other PL teams, and that's the recipe for an inability to sustain a competitive program, which is why people around the league ought to be concerned. While there are probably five or six good recruits on this list, the skill set is the larger problem, and it's a list with as many open questions as any Kelly has ever recruited, and harkens back to the 2001-03 classes Bob Benson was working with.

2. I appreciate Hoyapigskin's optimism but no one is predicting an eight win season given the losses to graduation and some of the coaching changes Georgetown is working with. Georgetown likes to think of itself as a destination job but to many coaches, it isn't. The assistants in the Scotty Glacken era had 10, 15, and in some cases 20 years of experience at Georgetown, but they were part time and weren't trying to afford living in the Washington DC region on an assistant's salary. Kelly and Sgarlata are veterans and understand this, but the staff remains largely transitory, with no assistant outside Kelly and Sgarlata with more than two years on the staff. Players, recruits, and parents notice this. You also see it in recruiting patterns--the bulk of recruits now come from Georgia, Texas, and California, areas where the veteran GU coaches have established contacts among the high schools. Georgetown used to be much more effective in northern NJ but either the high school contacts either aren't there anymore or the schools are steering their better recruits to programs where Tavani, Biddle, et al. are more established.

3. I know some fans have concerns about the offense--after his first season, Vinny Marino's offense looked more like that of Jim Miceli than Dave Patenaude, but shuttling through five quarterbacks on the depth chart will do that to the best of them. How will he fare in 2013 with his style? There's the red flag in predicting the season. Marino's offense is pass driven, but Georgetown lost five senior WR's and a reported transfer in Kevin Macari that account for two-thirds of all receiving yardage from 2012, and that's from a team ranked last in passing offense in the PL. The only returning starter is a 5-9, 170 lb. receiver that averaged 23 yards per game in 2012. Meanwhile, there are five returning RB's (three of whom are seniors) but Marino's offense is a one-back setup. Combine that with the loss of both the top punt (Macari) and kick returner (Jeremy Moore), and that puts the offense in more long-field possessions where they don't have the line strength to rely on the run to grind it out. An 8-3 prediction could easily be 3-8 if Kempf, et al. have no good options on the pass game or if Marino panics on Kempf and goes to a QB rotation.

Defensively, the Hoyas will be OK, Dustin Wharton will take over for Robert McCabe and will be among the league's best, and the secondary has enough talent to take over for Jeremy Moore. Time of possession is the defense's biggest enemy if the Marino offense reverts to 3 and out. Those who call Georgetown "dangerous" really mean "we'd better not lose to them this year". Outside of Lafayette and Bucknell, I'm not sure who really see Georgetown as that kind of threat.

[hoyapigskin]

Some interesting points here. A few thoughts:

1. LFN may have been generous with the 29 points offered on this class. It's an unbalanced list which reflects that Georgetown lost most of the head to head battles for recruits and back-filled the class with the AI-qualified talent it could. It goes without saying there are kids that Georgetown can't even look at which can fill Fordham's bands, but the scholarship disparity was a body blow to filling the longer term needs of this class, particularly skill positions. It's not that Georgetown is ceding the top 90 PL quality recruits (e.g., 15 x 6 teams) and starts at #91, but if the Hoyas are recruiting among five strong candidates and scholarships pick off each of them, the 4.0 kid from a small prep school fills a role but not necessarily a need.

(It was mentioned above why Georgetown doesn't recruit more from public schools. I'm sure they do, but with an average class rank of the top 4% of the class for the pool at large, the number of public high school recruits meeting that number AND that hasn't received a scholarship offer elsewhere AND can afford to attend Georgetown on need is a very limited number. Many private and prep schools don't rank and this opens the door to more of them within the Ivy Index.)

But this list is disappointing on the distribution. Any team with 4 or 5 returning QB's doesn't need to recruit three more, period. A team with two returning kickers probably doesn't need three more. A team losing five WR's should have done much better than a converted QB and two unrated wideouts, but skill positions are where scholarship offers (or lack thereof) show the most impact. And down the stretch, if you've lost out on recruits 1,2,3, and 4, you're left recruiting for bands. The bio for Georgetown's largest recruit, a 275 lb. OL, is illustrative: "A one-year letterwinner in football, starting all 11 games during his senior season at left tackle...Was deemed an AP Scholar by the College Board."

This is certainly not a criticism of the staff because these are the cards they are dealt. But combine the league's highest AI with no means to effectively match offers by other PL teams, and that's the recipe for an inability to sustain a competitive program, which is why people around the league ought to be concerned. While there are probably five or six good recruits on this list, the skill set is the larger problem, and it's a list with as many open questions as any Kelly has ever recruited, and harkens back to the 2001-03 classes Bob Benson was working with.

2. I appreciate Hoyapigskin's optimism but no one is predicting an eight win season given the losses to graduation and some of the coaching changes Georgetown is working with. Georgetown likes to think of itself as a destination job but to many coaches, it isn't. The assistants in the Scotty Glacken era had 10, 15, and in some cases 20 years of experience at Georgetown, but they were part time and weren't trying to afford living in the Washington DC region on an assistant's salary. Kelly and Sgarlata are veterans and understand this, but the staff remains largely transitory, with no assistant outside Kelly and Sgarlata with more than two years on the staff. Players, recruits, and parents notice this. You also see it in recruiting patterns--the bulk of recruits now come from Georgia, Texas, and California, areas where the veteran GU coaches have established contacts among the high schools. Georgetown used to be much more effective in northern NJ but either the high school contacts either aren't there anymore or the schools are steering their better recruits to programs where Tavani, Biddle, et al. are more established.

3. I know some fans have concerns about the offense--after his first season, Vinny Marino's offense looked more like that of Jim Miceli than Dave Patenaude, but shuttling through five quarterbacks on the depth chart will do that to the best of them. How will he fare in 2013 with his style? There's the red flag in predicting the season. Marino's offense is pass driven, but Georgetown lost five senior WR's and a reported transfer in Kevin Macari that account for two-thirds of all receiving yardage from 2012, and that's from a team ranked last in passing offense in the PL. The only returning starter is a 5-9, 170 lb. receiver that averaged 23 yards per game in 2012. Meanwhile, there are five returning RB's (three of whom are seniors) but Marino's offense is a one-back setup. Combine that with the loss of both the top punt (Macari) and kick returner (Jeremy Moore), and that puts the offense in more long-field possessions where they don't have the line strength to rely on the run to grind it out. An 8-3 prediction could easily be 3-8 if Kempf, et al. have no good options on the pass game or if Marino panics on Kempf and goes to a QB rotation.

Defensively, the Hoyas will be OK, Dustin Wharton will take over for Robert McCabe and will be among the league's best, and the secondary has enough talent to take over for Jeremy Moore. Time of possession is the defense's biggest enemy if the Marino offense reverts to 3 and out. Those who call Georgetown "dangerous" really mean "we'd better not lose to them this year". Outside of Lafayette and Bucknell, I'm not sure who really see Georgetown as that kind of threat.

I respect your opinion and perhaps my lenses are too rosey, but our 8 starters on defense and the 7 on offense gives me optimism. I actually flew up to the watch the spring game and liked what I saw on the offensive side of the ball. Kelly and Marino played against a stacked deck last year related to the QB injury issues. I believe that this year with a healthy Kempf we will be a much better team next season than last. I also believe freshman Mandy Williams and Tryrell Wiiliams will help us at WR and RB next year (2 really good athletes). Ledford out of Norcross was a solid recruit as well (he had a reported dozen offers and 247 sports has him rated a 2 star) but might need a year to catch up size and strength wise on the O-line or D-line.

You know what they say about opiinions, EVERYONE has one. xbangxxbangxxbangxxbangxxbangxxbangx

[RichH2]

These last two post summarize precisely Hoya's current situation. They do have a number of excellent players, just not enuf. They have better size but not much ability down the depth chart. At time amd for stretches they can compete w PL squads and beat some, yes DFW, maybe even LU or Gate. They do not have the deprh to go late in games or weather too many injuries.
Sadly, absent great lyck, the situation will only get worze.

[van]

I think DFW has hit upon the sense of things at G-town, lack of depth as noted earlier by RichH. Out of a class of 20 something there may be 6 or so good athletes (similar to what other PL teams recruit) that are ready to start when they are sophs or juniors. So Hoyas can field a team of 22 with 12 to 18 good, solid players and 4 to 10 somewhat below that standard. When they get close to the 18 out of 22 number they can compete effectively (say 8-3). At the 12 out of 22, not so much.

Now DFWs premise (as I understand it) is that the rest of the PL has just raised the bar by raiding some recruits that the Ivys or CAA got in the past. That is my hope also, but we may not really know that for another 2 or 3 years. I will be interested to watch how the Rose Hill Rams do this year as it is an early indication of this premise.

[van]

So Rich and I were sort of agreeing independently.

[Go...gate]

I hope the Hoyas do well, too but do you care to break down those anticipated wins and losses for us? Here's the Hoya's 2013 schedule:

08/31/13 at Wagner
09/07/13 vs. Davidson
09/14/13 vs. Marist
09/21/13 at Brown
09/28/13 vs. Princeton
10/12/13 vs. Fordham
10/19/13 at Lehigh
10/26/13 vs. Colgate
11/02/13 vs. Lafayette
11/16/13 at Bucknell
11/23/13 at Holy Cross

I'll give you two of the first three, but after that, Georgetown will win all but two? I'd wager that 4-4 or 3-5 over that stretch is more like it.

Davidson, Marist, Brown and Princeton will definitely be winnable OOC games for Georgetown. Don't know about Wagner, but I thought I remembered they were a fairly young team and will have a lot of momentum off their successful 2012 campaign. The conference games are always hard to pick.

[RichH2]

6 wins seem doable. Wagner a good team. Possible but not likely. GU D will keep them in most games for a while and occasionally last long enuf vs a good team to get an upset.

[CFBfan]

Davidson, Marist, Brown and Princeton will definitely be winnable OOC games for Georgetown. Don't know about Wagner, but I thought I remembered they were a fairly young team and will have a lot of momentum off their successful 2012 campaign. The conference games are always hard to pick.

Brown was a better footbal team than GU was last season.....

[Go...gate]

Brown was a better footbal team than GU was last season.....

Yes, they were, but you never really know with Brown. They have a great season and then seem to tail off.

[heath]

Yes, they were, but you never really know with Brown. They have a great season and then seem to tail off.

Sounds much like Lafayette,and the the tailspin is starting to lead into a crash.xthumbsupx