2nd Annual Over/Under Challenge - 2013 Edition

[superman7515]

Well, it's already May! That means that in a few short weeks, right around May 26, the Over/Under Challenge will start rolling out with one conference a week for 13 weeks. Hopefully there will be some interest again this year, in the inaugural edition last year we had 114 posters participate in some fashion with a good number following along the entire time to compete for the trophy, which came all the way down to the SWAC Championship Game, the only thing standing between the competitors and the tie-breaker system.

http://images3.crownawards.com/StoreFront/ImageCompositionServlet?files=jsp/builderimages/BaseFiles/GLJIN.png,jsp/builderimages/ColorInsert/CNINFT.png,&width=400&height=400

So, it's time for me to start making picks and adjusting the spreadsheet. Just to make sure I get everything straight: Georgia State = out, Appalachian State = no playoffs, Georgia Southern = no playoffs, Albany = to CAA, Stony Brook = to CAA, Monmouth = Independent...

And should I/how should I include Charlotte and Old Dominion?

Charlotte: They're FCS Independent this season, but there's several non-D1 schools on the schedule. Put them on the spreadsheet? Put them on but only count D1 teams? Skip them altogether this season?

Old Dominion: Also FCS Independent this season, transitioning out so they have 5 FBS teams on the schedule, plus the above mentioned Charlotte, so only 1/2 of their games are against regular FCS competition.

Chime in so I can get some kind of consensus on these guys.

[IBleedYellow]

Charlotte OFF

ODU: IN


That trophy looks legit, I want it.

[asumike83]

I say include Charlotte and ODU. A couple wild cards will make it even more interesting!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I say include Charlotte and ODU. A couple wild cards will make it even more interesting!
Yeah, same here and I'd just leave it as straight up record but maybe put it under it's own category of Independents and start off with that one one week earlier and listing the schedules for the independents? Or even run two in the separate threads in the first week.

[danefan]

I thought ODU was an FBS transitional team this year.

[Drblankstare]

Yeah, same here and I'd just leave it as straight up record but maybe put it under it's own category of Independents and start off with that one one week earlier and listing the schedules for the independents? Or even run two in the separate threads in the first week.

I agree with Ursus

[superman7515]

I thought ODU was an FBS transitional team this year.

No, that's why they were eligible for the playoffs last season. Their two year transition (FCS transitional in year 1, then FBS transitional in year 2) start July 1. They're in CUSA for all other sports, but football is in their final year of FCS.

[bluehenbillk]

ODU is NOT a FCS team any longer.

[MR. CHICKEN]

17694......HOW DO YA PLAY....DUH OVERAH & UNDERAH....CHALLENGE.......xconfusedxxdontknowxxco nfusedx.......BROCK!

[superman7515]

Basically I go through team by team and look at the schedule, returning players, results from last season, and a big dose of how much they are loved or hated on here (I'll explain in a second). Then I set a line, say 6.5 games, for how many games a team will win this season including the playoffs.

Something that confused people last year, I do NOT automatically set the line at how many games I think the team will win. A team like Montana or Appalachian State or Georgia Southern etc will automatically be high because there are a lot of fans on here and everyone thinks their team is going to win a lot, teams like Georgia State are automatically going to be low because people dislike them and will pick them low. It helps that they stink anyway, but the fact is people would go low on them regardless. Even so, I was still around 70% of the teams finished within a 1.5 game difference of where I picked them (not including playoff wins).

Anyway, I do it for every team in the FCS, conference by conference, releasing one conference a week. You post your picks, everything is with a 1/2 game added at the end so there are no pushes, and whoever has the most right at the end of the season gets a trophy. Ursus won last year, but Go Lehigh TU Owl took him down to the wire and the SWAC Championship Game actually decided who won the trophy, if it had gone the other way we would have gone to tie-breakers. The tie-breaker is picking how many teams from each conference will make the playoffs.

[danefan]

No, that's why they were eligible for the playoffs last season. Their two year transition (FCS transitional in year 1, then FBS transitional in year 2) start July 1. They're in CUSA for all other sports, but football is in their final year of FCS.

You're explanation seems to support my point - they aren't eligible for playoffs this year right?

[superman7515]

That's correct, just like Georgia State wasn't eligible last year but still counted as a FCS team/win instead of FBS.

[BisonFan02]

Charlotte OFF

ODU: IN


That trophy looks legit, I want it.

Just win baby....:D

http://i1142.photobucket.com/albums/n610/brhalvors8188/DSCF0005.jpg

[Trumpster]

Questions:
Are we talking only D1 wins?
Also, do the lines move if many people choose one or the other or are they stationary?

Thanks,
Didn't want to fill up the independents thread.

[superman7515]

Questions:
Are we talking only D1 wins?
Also, do the lines move if many people choose one or the other or are they stationary?

Thanks,
Didn't want to fill up the independents thread.

All wins count (including sub-D1 and playoffs/postseason like SWAC Championship Game) and the line is stationary.