An Expert's Opinion On Sun Belt Expansion

[superman7515]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/georgia-state-sports/2013/mar/13/experts-predictions-sun-belt-expansion/


Now, I provide the opinion of Russell Wright, a Georgia State grad and owner of Atlanta-based Collegiate Consulting, and someone that I would consider to be an expert on conference expansion matters. You may remember Wright’s business as the one that produced Georgia State’s FBS feasibility study. His company has produced feasibility studies for dozens of colleges, including some that will be mentioned in a few words.

Here’s what he thinks will happen:

He thinks Georgia Southern and Appalachian State will receive invitations to join the Sun Belt Conference.

Answering some of your concerns, he said academics likely won’t enter into the mix. As for demographics, he said unless you are one of the top-five conferences, market size doesn’t mean as much as rivalries and interest. He thinks adding Georgia Southern would help generate interest in Georgia State.

“Generating excitement about these games is huge,” he said.

He thinks New Mexico State will also receive an invitation, possibly for football only. He said he hasn’t heard much about Idaho and therefore isn’t sure they will receive an invitation.

He predicts that Western Kentucky will soon leave the Sun Belt to join Conference USA.

Should that happen, he said don’t be surprised if Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State receive consideration to join the Sun Belt....

[walliver]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/georgia-state-sports/2013/mar/13/experts-predictions-sun-belt-expansion/

If he did the Georgia State FBS study , I don't know how much faith I have in his predictions.

[superman7515]

If he did the Georgia State FBS study , I don't know how much faith I have in his predictions.

He got them into the Sun Belt and told them they would never be successful at the FCS level. I would say he is 2 for 2.

[CID1990]

Outside of the comment about helping GSU with Ga Southern, most of this is old hat. Of course ASU and Ga South will get invited. The SBC would be crazy not to go that direction.

I don't understand NMSU though.


Sent from the center of the universe.

[Laker]

I don't understand NMSU though.

I'm hoping for NMSU's sake that the MWC takes them in. Probably wishful thinking. They seem too far west for the Sunbelt even though they and Idaho were in it at one time.

[MplsBison]

I'm hoping for NMSU's sake that the MWC takes them in. Probably wishful thinking. They seem too far west for the Sunbelt even though they and Idaho were in it at one time.

Absolutely the MWC "should" take NMSU and Idaho in. That would be the humane thing, given what they did to the WAC.

But probably not going to happen. I sure hope both can get football memberships to the Sun Belt. Being an indy would be sustainable, but not nearly as nice an existence in FBS.

[IBleedYellow]

What I found interesting was the part talking about Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State moving up.

[Laker]

I thought that the Sunbelt attendance figures were interesting. Those new Florida schools just don't draw.

2012:
Ark St 26,398
La Lafayette 22,952
Troy 20,952
La Monroe 19,358
N Texas 18,927
MTSU 17,738
W KY 17,415
S AL 16,793
FIU 13,634
FAU 13,459

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Of course, this consultant who already got Georgia State into the Sun Belt doesn't stand to gain at all by floating Sam Houston or Jax State's names, right?

What a sales job. Convince Georgia State that they need to go to the Sun Belt, then convince Georgia Southern they need to join the Sun Belt because "it's all about rivalries". I'm betting that wasn't a part of the Georgia State sales pitch.

[Smitty]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRpa-kC3T0rpWxO4vW7tIqRGOnFA36LKu3bDonSF4D-notMaIEBCg

[superman7515]

What I found interesting was the part talking about Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State moving up.

Yeah, that was the only new info I thought was interesting.

[WH49er]

I thought that the Sunbelt attendance figures were interesting. Those new Florida schools just don't draw.

2012:
Ark St 26,398
La Lafayette 22,952
Troy 20,952
La Monroe 19,358
N Texas 18,927
MTSU 17,738
W KY 17,415
S AL 16,793
FIU 13,634
FAU 13,459



They both went 3-9 in 2012. Fans in South Florida have shown unless you win it's not worth their time. Even the professional teams in that area have that problem.


FIU went to bowl games in 2010 & 2011 and averaged 19,808 and 18,411 those years. Not a huge increase but shows the difference between a bad year and solid year.

[AshevilleApp2]

They both went 3-9 in 2012. Fans in South Florida have shown unless you win it's not worth their time. Even the professional teams in that area have that problem.


FIU went to bowl games in 2010 & 2011 and averaged 19,808 and 18,411 those years. Not a huge increase but shows the difference between a bad year and solid year.

Do ya'll open up this coming season?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Where does the issue of academics even come up besides from ignorant State fans in comment sections?

GSU and App. State would be the most selective institutions in the Sun Belt now that Denver is gone.

http://collegeapps.about.com/od/sat/a/sun-belt-sat-scores.htm

[MplsBison]

Of course, this consultant who already got Georgia State into the Sun Belt doesn't stand to gain at all by floating Sam Houston or Jax State's names, right?

What a sales job. Convince Georgia State that they need to go to the Sun Belt, then convince Georgia Southern they need to join the Sun Belt because "it's all about rivalries". I'm betting that wasn't a part of the Georgia State sales pitch.

Don't worry so much.

Once most of the upper-tier FCS teams have moved out and up to FBS, you can have an FCS championship game of Lehigh vs. Tennesee St, on ESPN3!

[walliver]

This "expert" predicted Georgia State would not be expected to prosper at FCS level. A number of long-term posters in this board predicted exactly the same thing.

This "expert" got them into the SunBelt. Being in Atlanta got them into the SunBelt - their football teams have been horrible by almost all standards.

Does the "expert" actually predict the Georgia State will be successful at "mid-major" football? I have serious doubts.
The number one team is Atlanta is UGA.
2) GT
3) Probably Auburn
4-8) There are a lot of Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina grads living in Atlanta. Georgia State fits somewhere in the 4-8 group.
Playing in front of 40,000 empty seats indoors is not going to lead to community excitement against teams like ULL, ULM, Arkansas State, USA, etc.

[MplsBison]

Where does the issue of academics even come up besides from ignorant State fans in comment sections?

GSU and App. State would be the most selective institutions in the Sun Belt now that Denver is gone.

http://collegeapps.about.com/od/sat/a/sun-belt-sat-scores.htm

I know this is just a giant waste of time, as I personally don't think academics has jack to do with Sun Belt member selection, but .... what the HECK does selectivity have to do with ANYTHING? Other than elitism...?

Honestly, don't even reply. Just think of it as a rhetorical question...something for you to ponder.

[MplsBison]

This "expert" predicted Georgia State would not be expected to prosper at FCS level. A number of long-term posters in this board predicted exactly the same thing.

This "expert" got them into the SunBelt. Being in Atlanta got them into the SunBelt - their football teams have been horrible by almost all standards.

Does the "expert" actually predict the Georgia State will be successful at "mid-major" football? I have serious doubts.
The number one team is Atlanta is UGA.
2) GT
3) Probably Auburn
4-8) There are a lot of Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina grads living in Atlanta. Georgia State fits somewhere in the 4-8 group.
Playing in front of 40,000 empty seats indoors is not going to lead to community excitement against teams like ULL, ULM, Arkansas State, USA, etc.

If they make a bowl game, would that qualify as "success" in your book?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

This "expert" predicted Georgia State would not be expected to prosper at FCS level. A number of long-term posters in this board predicted exactly the same thing.

This "expert" got them into the SunBelt. Being in Atlanta got them into the SunBelt - their football teams have been horrible by almost all standards.

Does the "expert" actually predict the Georgia State will be successful at "mid-major" football? I have serious doubts.
The number one team is Atlanta is UGA.
2) GT
3) Probably Auburn
4-8) There are a lot of Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina grads living in Atlanta. Georgia State fits somewhere in the 4-8 group.
Playing in front of 40,000 empty seats indoors is not going to lead to community excitement against teams like ULL, ULM, Arkansas State, USA, etc.

But wait. He convinced Georgia State to go to FBS because they couldn't prosper at FCS. He then turns around and says Georgia Southern, by any measure a program that has prospered at the FCS level, needs to move up because they need a "rival".

As for Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State, that's just this consultant fishing for business. Not much news there to me.

[WH49er]

Do ya'll open up this coming season?



Play Campbell at home on 8/31.

[walliver]

If they make a bowl game, would that qualify as "success" in your book?

To me, "success" is an energized fanbase that attends games, and enjoys games, and roots for the team even during down years, year in and year out.

A 6-6 record leading to an early December bowl game once a decade is not "success". I consider The Citadel's football program a "success". They don't generally win a lot of games, but still routinely draw home crowds 5-8 times larger than undergrad enrollment even during bad years. The team enjoys significant alumni support every year. I don't see that happening at Georgia State.

[AshevilleApp2]

Play Campbell at home on 8/31.

Cool. I couldn't remember if it was 2013 or 2014.

[WH49er]

Cool. I couldn't remember if it was 2013 or 2014.


The excitement is really growing for our fans. Seat license holders start picking out their seats and parking spots next week. Haven't got my timeslot yet but I'm pretty jacked about it.

[MplsBison]

To me, "success" is an energized fanbase that attends games, and enjoys games, and roots for the team even during down years, year in and year out.

A 6-6 record leading to an early December bowl game once a decade is not "success". I consider The Citadel's football program a "success". They don't generally win a lot of games, but still routinely draw home crowds 5-8 times larger than undergrad enrollment even during bad years. The team enjoys significant alumni support every year. I don't see that happening at Georgia State.

Well there has to be some reasonable ceiling on expectations of what GA St can achieve, given the things you've outlined.

It's always possible they could become the Boise St of the south, but very unlikely. Making a low-tier bowl game is comparable to playing in the FCS national championship, in my opinion, as far as a college football program's overall success goes in the entire realm of college football.

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

I think Georgia St. has a better opportunity than most mid tier football programs playing in the same market as a BCS school, to carve out an idenity and get local attention from the media and the fans. Georgia Techs support in Atlanta has be dropping for many years, in 2012 their attendence was down 9%, to just below 44,000, and Im willing to bet thats paid attendence not actual attendence, people in Atlanta have not been excited about Georgia Tech's athletics for years. In comparison, I live in South Florida, 30 minutes from the FAU campus, 1 hour from FIU, they get almost absolutely no coverage from the media, any coverage is buried on the back page of the sports section, and no highlights on tv. All the attention is given to Miami, Florida State, and Florida. A buddy of mine attended a few FAU games in their brand new 30 thousand seat stadium, he said they were lucky to have 10 thousand at the games, unless something radical happens, these schools have almost no chance to grow the fan base, and attract more media coverage.

[Sandlapper Spike]

I think Georgia St. has a better opportunity than most mid tier football programs playing in the same market as a BCS school, to carve out an idenity and get local attention from the media and the fans. Georgia Techs support in Atlanta has be dropping for many years, in 2012 their attendence was down 9%, to just below 44,000, and Im willing to bet thats paid attendence not actual attendence, people in Atlanta have not been excited about Georgia Tech's athletics for years. In comparison, I live in South Florida, 30 minutes from the FAU campus, 1 hour from FIU, they get almost absolutely no coverage from the media, any coverage is buried on the back page of the sports section, and no highlights on tv. All the attention is given to Miami, Florida State, and Florida. A buddy of mine attended a few FAU games in their brand new 30 thousand seat stadium, he said they were lucky to have 10 thousand at the games, unless something radical happens, these schools have almost no chance to grow the fan base, and attract more media coverage.

Given that, I'm curious what the dynamics will be once Kennesaw State's football program gets off the ground. Granted, KSU is going to start off concentrating on its own section of metro Atlanta first, but it's yet another local program that will be vying for interest.

[appsfan]

Play Campbell at home on 8/31.

An interesting angle is former Panther and Campbell coach Mike Minter coming back to the Queen City to kick things off.

[WH49er]

An interesting angle is former Panther and Campbell coach Mike Minter coming back to the Queen City to kick things off.


It's even more interesting because he wanted to be consider for the head coaching job but we let be known from the beginning that we wanted someone with more experience.

[CID1990]

It's even more interesting because he wanted to be consider for the head coaching job but we let be known from the beginning that we wanted someone with more experience.

Mmm you guys started out by creating locker room material for your inaugural opponent.


Sent from the center of the universe.

[WH49er]

Mmm you guys started out by creating locker room material for your inaugural opponent.



I think we were a little more worried about hiring coach with some actual coaching experience. Minter coached high school football for 3 years, then was an assistant coach at JC Smith for a year and then a special teams coach for a year at Liberty.

[Cocky]

But wait. He convinced Georgia State to go to FBS because they couldn't prosper at FCS. He then turns around and says Georgia Southern, by any measure a program that has prospered at the FCS level, needs to move up because they need a "rival".

As for Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State, that's just this consultant fishing for business. Not much news there to me.

Our BOT stated several years ago we would consider moving to FBS. Information we have heard is NMSU will be admitted to the SB. JSU desire is to be in a FBS conference with a tight footprint. The info has our BOT taking a step back to see where the chip fall. JSU would move to FBS but only under conditions we could prosper.

But if these names are news to you? Sam and JSU have been mentioned in news reports for months.