The Patsy Ratings - Methodology

[Lehigh Football Nation]

With the Patsy Ratings in their new home, I thought I'd explain it to the uninitiated.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-2012-patsy-ratings.html

Thoughts? Questions? Most importantly, the methodology hasn't changed a whole lot from carney's original to the one for this season.

First up: Lafayette. Pards, brace yourselves.

[CFBfan]

thanks for taking the baton LFN, always enjoyable and a great help in pssing the idle months before another season kick offs. can't wait to read!!

[carney2]

Looking forward to it.

[RichH2]

Great. Guaranteed to keep us off the streets til Spring.

[Pard4Life]

I'm no longer reading, or caring about, the Patsy ratings since LFN is their 'trustee' and used to further promote his 'blog'.

[Southsider]

I'm no longer reading, or caring about, the Patsy ratings since LFN is their 'trustee' and used to further promote his 'blog'.

Sure you will. You, like the rest of us, just hasta know!

[LUHawker]

I'm no longer reading, or caring about, the Patsy ratings since LFN is their 'trustee' and used to further promote his 'blog'.

Ahhh, the bitterness never ends. Why don't you start a P4L blog and promote it with your own ratings? Until then, STFU.

[Kramer]

LFN, I'm definitely looking forward to it.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I'm no longer reading, or caring about, the Patsy ratings since LFN is their 'trustee' and used to further promote his 'blog'.

Can I quote you? This is fantastic publicity. xlolx

[RichH2]

LMAO.
P4L c'mon, if we all felt like you we would've not followed and enjoyed Carney all these yrs.. Besides southsider is right no matter what we all want to know. Just think you can b!tch about his opinions. What fun!

[ngineer]

This is like a Seinfeld episode looping

[breezy]

I have fully enjoyed following the Patsy Ratings over the past several years and would like to add my appreciation to carney2 for providing them each year in a lucid and objective manner.

That being said, I know that carney2 has expressed the sentiment that while it is the best possible measurement of recruiting classes based on an objective methodology, it is still far from perfect and in some ways obviously flawed. All of us can find examples of players who were highly touted by the recruiting web sites who were eventually disappointments on the playing field, while others who were ignored by the recruiting web sites became major contributors to their teams and even all-PL performers. The flaws are not in the methodology but in the inability (or unwillingness) of the recruiting web sites to accurately evaluate players -- especially at the lower end of the scale.

In my opinion, the recruiting web sites have, over the past several years, focused more and more on the upper end of the scale and far less on the lower end. This is probably what they feel is the popular demand, but I believe it has made the recruiting web sites less and less reliable for purposes of the Patsy Ratings.

Nevertheless, let's go!

[carney2]

All of us can find examples of players who were highly touted by the recruiting web sites who were eventually disappointments on the playing field, while others who were ignored by the recruiting web sites became major contributors to their teams and even all-PL performers.

All that you say is true, but focusing on the comment above, it was never the intent of the Patsy Ratings to highlight or predict individuals. The purpose was to rate the recruiting CLASS. This constant and repetitive focusing on the micro, while ignoring the macro, is the fault of the readers and not the Patsies. Hopefully there will be some refocusing when LFN releases this year's ratings.

[LeopardMan]

Do you really think LFN will be objective?

[CFBfan]

Do you really think LFN will be objective?

Of course he will......LU will by far have the best class!!!!

[RichH2]

Yup. He may not be a curmudgeon like Carney but he will be just as fair. Good enuf for me.

[DFW HOYA]

Do you really think LFN will be objective?

Of course.

[Pard4Life]

Of course he will......LU will by far have the best class!!!!

Exactly. Like the Patriot League being less competitive just because Lehigh was not winning titles.

[Pard4Life]

LMAO.
P4L c'mon, if we all felt like you we would've not followed and enjoyed Carney all these yrs.. Besides southsider is right no matter what we all want to know. Just think you can b!tch about his opinions. What fun!

Like c2 said, the Patsy ratings were for entertainment purposes only. I can see LFN devising formulas that rival investment banking valuations for collateralized debt obligations.

[breezy]

All that you say is true, but focusing on the comment above, it was never the intent of the Patsy Ratings to highlight or predict individuals. The purpose was to rate the recruiting CLASS. This constant and repetitive focusing on the micro, while ignoring the macro, is the fault of the readers and not the Patsies. Hopefully there will be some refocusing when LFN releases this year's ratings.

Yes, but again, the rating for the class is dependent upon the individual players. The quality points are largely determined by how many 2* recruits are in the class, and then the points awarded for trigger (QBs) or jumbos (OL/DL) are often a function of how many are 2* recruits, and then the points awarded for meeting needs are often determined by how many 2* recruits for that position are in the class.

I recall one instance (it was last year or the year before that) where one player was responsible for something like 11 Patsy Points -- and I as recall that generated a 2-point reduction by the Committee because it was felt that one player should not play that big a role in the total score.

In short, the class rating is largely a function of the ratings of individual recruits by the recruiting web sites -- which, as I said, are becoming more and more unreliable for most PL recruits.

Still, I look forward to the (reformulated) Committee's evaluation of each team's recruiting class.

[CFBfan]

Yes, but again, the rating for the class is dependent upon the individual players. The quality points are largely determined by how many 2* recruits are in the class, and then the points awarded for trigger (QBs) or jumbos (OL/DL) are often a function of how many are 2* recruits, and then the points awarded for meeting needs are often determined by how many 2* recruits for that position are in the class.

I recall one instance (it was last year or the year before that) where one player was responsible for something like 11 Patsy Points -- and I as recall that generated a 2-point reduction by the Committee because it was felt that one player should not play that big a role in the total score.

In short, the class rating is largely a function of the ratings of individual recruits by the recruiting web sites -- which, as I said, are becoming more and more unreliable for most PL recruits.

Still, I look forward to the (reformulated) Committee's evaluation of each team's recruiting class.

breezt take it easy please you're way to anal on this man!

[breezy]

:)

LOL!!!

[Engineer86]

Of course he will......LU will by far have the best class!!!!

Keep politicking even before anything is in. Why would anyone both with the likes of you and P4L trying to back door influence the way you are. LFN might as well come out with the Pards #1 and GTown, who cares, as long as LU is not number 1

[CFBfan]

Keep politicking even before anything is in. Why would anyone both with the likes of you and P4L trying to back door influence the way you are. LFN might as well come out with the Pards #1 and GTown, who cares, as long as LU is not number 1

relax big guy....panties on too tight tonight??
sad how most lu fans can't take a little "locker room humor"

[RichH2]

No cfb, not lockeroom humor, carping. For P4L anything even remotely tied to LU causes an excess of bile, which he spews, occasionally with some humor. Politicking? Perhaps not because unless Pards are #1, P4L will claim bias.It would be neat if there were a really accurate preductor. As there is not lets all try to have fun with the ratings we do have. Great way to pass time til Spring.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Lafayette is out:

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2013/02/patsy-ratings-lafayettes-class-of-2017.html

Also - and remember this - politicking is futile.

Next up: Colgate, either today or tomorrow.

[RichH2]

Good read, but gee LFN how dare you do a fair and balanced rating. What will P4L have to b!tch about? Agree on their qb recruit. Kid looks like the real deal.
Well P4L cant complain this wk as Pards have #1 class. Sadly, I think we'll all be angling for #2 after you do Gate.

[carney2]

Good job, LFN. This Lafayette recruiting class could give scholarships a bad name. You danced around that fact, but didn't actually say it. I'm guessing that you didn't want to incur further wrath from the fair and balanced crowd.

QB - Got one who could end up being great. The other may require some seasoning.

RB - One has the faithful drooling because of his size. The other is roster filler. Oh yeah, size does not a RB make.

WR - Got two who may be able to step into Mark Ross's shoes in a year or two.

OL - Lost head-to-head after head-to-head for trench guys. The ones they got look like too many leftovers and roster fillers. It's a good thing this wasn't a major Need.

DL - The faithful are salivating over this group. I don't understand why. Some will hit the two-deep immediately simply because the need is that great.

LB - One is intriguing.

DB - Don't know what they got. Do know that they didn't need much, if anything.

K - Desperately needed a kicker going in. Probably still do.

The Pards should be improved this year. I doubt if this group will do much to move that along.

[CFBfan]

with a 47 this year for LC, what was their rating last year??

wondering if the class size score should be adjusted to reflect smaller classes for everyone now in the world of schollies??

[carney2]

with a 47 this year for LC, what was their rating last year??

67

[Pard4Life]

Good read, but gee LFN how dare you do a fair and balanced rating. What will P4L have to b!tch about? Agree on their qb recruit. Kid looks like the real deal.
Well P4L cant complain this wk as Pards have #1 class. Sadly, I think we'll all be angling for #2 after you do Gate.

I don't think we have the number one class, and neither do I care. I don't even think c2 ever rated us with the top class.

[Pard4Life]

Good job, LFN. This Lafayette recruiting class could give scholarships a bad name. You danced around that fact, but didn't actually say it. I'm guessing that you didn't want to incur further wrath from the fair and balanced crowd.

QB - Got one who could end up being great. The other may require some seasoning.

RB - One has the faithful drooling because of his size. The other is roster filler. Oh yeah, size does not a RB make.

WR - Got two who may be able to step into Mark Ross's shoes in a year or two.

OL - Lost head-to-head after head-to-head for trench guys. The ones they got look like too many leftovers and roster fillers. It's a good thing this wasn't a major Need.

DL - The faithful are salivating over this group. I don't understand why. Some will hit the two-deep immediately simply because the need is that great.

LB - One is intriguing.

DB - Don't know what they got. Do know that they didn't need much, if anything.

K - Desperately needed a kicker going in. Probably still do.

The Pards should be improved this year. I doubt if this group will do much to move that along.

The only recruits I think that are worth a grain of salt, at this point, are the QB from Tennessee, OL Devin Leach, the DL from Colorado, and Rothrock.

We should give our 'second' QB to the lacrosse team. He sounds like a much better lax player than football. And we need size there.

[carney2]

I don't think we have the number one class, and neither do I care. I don't even think c2 ever rated us with the top class.

Actually, twice, I think. Year one and last year. Don't quote me. I'm doing it from memory.

[carney2]

The only recruits I think that are worth a grain of salt, at this point, are the QB from Tennessee, OL Devin Leach, the DL from Colorado, and Rothrock.

We should give our 'second' QB to the lacrosse team. He sounds like a much better lax player than football. And we need size there.

Not a bad assessment. 4 out of 20. As LFN points out, of the total 47 Patsy Points, 8 were earned by one guy, the QB from Tennessee. Without him the total is 39. That barely fogs a mirror without scholarships, let alone with.

Someone please tell me again why Frank Tavani is still collecting a pay check.

[CFBfan]

67

67 without schollies last year and 47 with this year! OUCH!!!!!
Not the direction any PL program should go! does not boad well for the dollars spent!
Would be interesting to see how many kids LC offered that went to other PL schools.....

[LeopardMan]

Not a bad assessment. 4 out of 20. As LFN points out, of the total 47 Patsy Points, 8 were earned by one guy, the QB from Tennessee. Without him the total is 39. That barely fogs a mirror without scholarships, let alone with.

Someone please tell me again why Frank Tavani is still collecting a pay check.
Frank's phone # is 610-339-5485 you can ask Frank why he's collecting his pay check i dare you bigmouth..

[CFBfan]

Frank's phone # is 610-339-5485 you can ask Frank why he's collecting his pay check i dare you bigmouth..

wow!!! maybe that's frank's wife incognito??
leopardman has 2 posts and the early read is.....D-Bag!!!!!

[DFW HOYA]

A different question about scholarships someone may know.

Is the limit 15 per year offered or 15 per year on the team? If a scholarship recruit transfers, is injured, is dropped from the team, etc., does that scholarship go back into the pool for the following year (even if the total goes over 15) or is it unavailable for the next three?

[LeopardMan]

You mean nice guy:D hey i'm just a diehard Pardfan Please don't judge me just yet...Carney is just like other Leopard fans tired of losing.I couldn't sign in using my other nic from Lafayette sports forum site >BillS

[Fordham]

67 without schollies last year and 47 with this year! OUCH!!!!!
Not the direction any PL program should go! does not boad well for the dollars spent!
Would be interesting to see how many kids LC offered that went to other PL schools.....

correct me if wrong, but I think carney always had the disclaimer that it's not an apples to apples comparison with regard non-scholly v scholly. Some of the weighting for things like class size are a boon to non scholly programs and skew the #'s unnecessarily. Again, it's all fun but just pointing out in defense of this year's LC class that I don't think it's a direct 67 v. 47 result in comparing this year v. last year.

[CFBfan]

correct me if wrong, but I think carney always had the disclaimer that it's not an apples to apples comparison with regard non-scholly v scholly. Some of the weighting for things like class size are a boon to non scholly programs and skew the #'s unnecessarily. Again, it's all fun but just pointing out in defense of this year's LC class that I don't think it's a direct 67 v. 47 result in comparing this year v. last year.

yes, i agree with you, it's also why i asked if the class size score should be changed now knowing that all PL teams will bring in less kids? maybe make it relative to the new number coming in? also, if LC was given a high class size grade i still think they would come in under last years grade?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

yes, i agree with you, it's also why i asked if the class size score should be changed now knowing that all PL teams will bring in less kids? maybe make it relative to the new number coming in? also, if LC was given a high class size grade i still think they would come in under last years grade?

In future years, this might be changed. However, right now it serves two vital purposes:

1) It provides a way to compare "pre" and "post" scholarship classes with no change in the rules. If the rules are changed radically (and this would be a radical change), the Patsy Ratings would need an * in the "before scholarships" and "after scholarships" eras. I think it is hugely useful to allow for this comparison across years.

2) It provides a way to give the same yardstick to the scholarship/NLI teams and Georgetown. If you change the rules to favor scholarship, 20ish-recruit classes, you could also wreck the analysis of Georgetown's method of recruiting.

It's funny because in my original analysis of the Patsies, I looked at class size as well as a possible place for change. But I forgot the function of the Patsies that involve comparing recruiting classes over time. How to know whether the 2009 class is better than the 2013 class? I think particularly at this point in time it is critical that the Patsy methodology remains the same.

[CFBfan]

In future years, this might be changed. However, right now it serves two vital purposes:

1) It provides a way to compare "pre" and "post" scholarship classes with no change in the rules. If the rules are changed radically (and this would be a radical change), the Patsy Ratings would need an * in the "before scholarships" and "after scholarships" eras. I think it is hugely useful to allow for this comparison across years.

2) It provides a way to give the same yardstick to the scholarship/NLI teams and Georgetown. If you change the rules to favor scholarship, 20ish-recruit classes, you could also wreck the analysis of Georgetown's method of recruiting.

It's funny because in my original analysis of the Patsies, I looked at class size as well as a possible place for change. But I forgot the function of the Patsies that involve comparing recruiting classes over time. How to know whether the 2009 class is better than the 2013 class? I think particularly at this point in time it is critical that the Patsy methodology remains the same.

i understand what you're saying lfn and certainly appreciate you doing this!!
just wonder though if that 1 tweak would make it more accurate....rate class size based on what each school is targeting so in GU's case, they would need a larger class size, otherwise it sort of punishes everyone else who will have less kids??
again....truly appreciate what you are doing here!! and i very much enjoy reading, and the banter is 1/2 the fun between now and spring ball!

[DFW HOYA]

The official recruits, Georgetown excepted.

FWIW, the release says Georgetown's nondisclosure on recruit lists due to "its financial aid procedures" as opposed to discussion on NCAA rules.

http://www.patriotleague.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/020713aaa.html

[citdog]

give 63 or "get thyself to a nunnery" like Div II. this whole league, along with the pioneer, are what is wrong with FCS Football.

again it costs 61,000 dollars a year to attend georgetown and you cry poverty.

http://www.rottenecards.com/ecards/Rottenecards_51884973_8bh5mjsqf5.png

[CFBfan]

give 63 or "get thyself to a nunnery" like Div II. this whole league, along with the pioneer, are what is wrong with FCS Football.

again it costs 61,000 dollars a year to attend georgetown and you cry poverty.

http://www.rottenecards.com/ecards/Rottenecards_51884973_8bh5mjsqf5.png

if you continue being a d_ _k i will stop paying you to cut my lawn going forward

[citdog]

if you continue being a d_ _k i will stop paying you to cut my lawn going forward


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bqfj4Ttue8

[DFW HOYA]

give 63 or "get thyself to a nunnery" like Div II. this whole league, along with the pioneer, are what is wrong with FCS Football. again it costs 61,000 dollars a year to attend georgetown and you cry poverty.

Never said that. You do realize, of course, that NCAA division membership is based on the number of sports sponsored, not by the number of scholarships.

To fund 29 sports, it comes down to institutional choices and a $3 million annual commitment to scholarships isn't financially justifiable at this point given the lack of revenue football brings in.

So why doesn't The Citadel fund golf or soccer when other SoCon schools do? Choices and cost.

[citdog]

Never said that. You do realize, of course, that NCAA division membership is based on the number of sports sponsored, not by the number of scholarships.

To fund 29 sports, it comes down to institutional choices and a $3 million annual commitment to scholarships isn't financially justifiable at this point given the lack of revenue football brings in.

So why doesn't The Citadel fund golf or soccer when other SoCon schools do? Choices and cost.

We did fund golf and soccer before the justice dept of the 'late united States' decided to attempt to ruin us by forcing us to admit the fairer sex.

[RichH2]

Ah citdog our ever present vitriolic elf. You take up so much space and say so little, albeit sometimes humorously.Freedom of choice elf. We choose for our own needs to compete nationally as best we can and still maintain academic standards.. The Citadel is likewise free to do what it does. Whether we are successful is our concern. Yours is to root for The Citadel. Your fixation on the PL is perplexing. Iwould think you'd be more concerned w SoCon. Your option, of course, just odd that one from a "power conference" would deign to notice us.

[citdog]

Ah citdog our ever present vitriolic elf. You take up so much space and say so little, albeit sometimes humorously.Freedom of choice elf. We choose for our own needs to compete nationally as best we can and still maintain academic standards.. The Citadel is likewise free to do what it does. Whether we are successful is our concern. Yours is to root for The Citadel. Your fixation on the PL is perplexing. Iwould think you'd be more concerned w SoCon. Your option, of course, just odd that one from a "power conference" would deign to notice us.


I fart in your general direction and you CALL it noticing.

just didn't want y'all to think that I had forgotten about you.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Just based on what I've read I believe the rankings will be something like...

1. Colgate
2. Fordham
3. Lehigh
4. Lafayette
5. Bucknell
6. Holy Cross
7. Georgetown

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Citdog is just grouchy because deep down inside, he knows the Citadel and VMI should be in the Patriot League.

[RichH2]

Agree Owl. Rams recruited best qb prospect. Not too familiar w the rest.
LFN ,perhaps citdog may feel that way but those dang academic standards. Farting and all cute in an elf but does little to convince me he is worthy. Altho, it is funny to contemplate his agony if Citadel joins PL.
Weird, in a way, that we dont have our own trolls but have to import them. Guess citdog replaces MplsBison. Aren't we just too lucky.

[Pard4Life]

Just based on what I've read I believe the rankings will be something like...

1. Colgate
2. Fordham
3. Lehigh
4. Lafayette
5. Bucknell
6. Holy Cross
7. Georgetown

I concur... but have no real idea about Holy Cross. Does anyone?

[RichH2]

Tom piled up the miles. Recruits from everywhere. Reputedly a good number of solid skill kids. Hard to compare as even after watching lots of video, nearly impossible to gauge level of competition. Certainly a better class overall athletically Cross's biggest need IMO is speed. They are fundamentally sound and very well coached but slow.
Likewise, I look at our TE from Wa or DT from Ill and they look good but what is the level of competition?

[DFW HOYA]

I concur... but have no real idea about Holy Cross. Does anyone?

If HC is only 6th and Georgetown 7th, there's a huge gap there. HC has three or four recruits that picked it straight over Georgetown.

[RichH2]

The power of $$$. Doesn't necessarily mean they are better than other players Kelly recruited and got.

[breezy]

HC has perhaps the smallest recruiting class of all PL schools. Spring roster of 85 returnees plus 16 recruits = 101 players, so attrition of 6 players will be needed to get down to the PL max of 95. If HC adds one or two more recruits, additional corresponding attrition will be needed.

HC recruiting class has no 2* recruits, so Patsy score will not be high. However, I think this will eventually be seen as a very good class. Most needs were met, with exception of a big NT to back up 3 underclassmen on the roster. Highlights of the class include [1] 5 jumbo OLs, some of whom had higher level offers, who will form the nucleus of a solid O-line in 2014 and beyond; [2] a quick DL with good size; [3] a nice group of skill position players -- a QB who resisted late interest from NC State, an RB with tremendous potential, a talented WR, and a TE with good size and speed; and [4] a speedy group of DBs (two of whom could easily switch to WR). Overall, there is good speed (estimating 8 Patsy points for speed, with two other recruits not listed on recruiting sites -- and therefore ineligible for speed points --also having 4.5 speed).

In my view, Colgate and Lehigh will be at the top of the Patsy ratings, but I think HC has a group of recruits with tremendous upside potential.

[DFW HOYA]

The power of $$$. Doesn't necessarily mean they are better than other players Kelly recruited and got.

Not necessarily, but the odds are not in GU's favor.

In hindsight, I think both the PL and Georgetown miscalculated on this. Some in the PL might have seen Georgetown as bluffing on opposing schoalrships and would come around like Lafayette and Bucknell did. It didn't.

Georgetown figured it could compete for FB recruits like it does with students, winning battles with better endowed schools on brand and location. It didn't.

If anyone remembers what it was like for nonscholarship Davidson football in the SoCon and the ill will which grew over that, that's a scenario for the PL no one wants to repeat but which neither side seems able to avoid at this point.

[RichH2]

Davidson scenario possible but not likely. GU draws from an immensely larger pool than Davidson ever could. Will that be enuf? Sometimes, I think but a daunting task over the yrs. Hoya football could die from neglect. Prior to that PFL an option. We have 6-7 yrs to see what happens. A rich generous alum would help.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Personally, I would wait until Georgetown announces their incoming class before shoveling the dirt on the Hoya football program. For all we know Mr. Kelly has an 80 Patsy Point class up his sleeve.

[DFW HOYA]

Davidson scenario possible but not likely. GU draws from an immensely larger pool than Davidson ever could. Will that be enuf? Sometimes, I think but a daunting task over the yrs. Hoya football could die from neglect. Prior to that PFL an option. We have 6-7 yrs to see what happens. A rich generous alum would help.

Georgetown still wants to be part of the PL but the Pioneer is just not an option. The Pioneer is little more than a scheduling agreement and is contrary to Georgetown's stated goal of playing peer institutions in football, of which there are none in that conference. The NEC or an I-AA independent schedule would come first. The least palatable case would be playing the card Davidson did in the 1990's and only scheduling the minimum number of I-AA teams required (six) and backfilling with D-II and D-III games. Georgetown hasn't scheduled below I-AA since 1995 and that is not a strategy it would be interested in.

Actually, Davidson's pool in the 1970's was as large or larger than Georgetown's today. The Ivy Index continues to relegate Georgetown to such a small slice of the recruiting pool nationwide and a low band recruit at Georgetown could be a medium to high one at Holy Cross and Fordham.

I would also be curious to learn what level of predatory recruiting went on this year. That Holy Cross had almost a clean sweep among recruits that chose between HC and Georgetown is illustrative that other coaches know what to tell a recruit that he won't hear from GU.

[citdog]

predatory recruiting.


"Is there any other kind?"

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wbzD1aEI3yw/TC63b9T4QbI/AAAAAAAACfA/vkFKOiBeTY0/s1600/afewgoodmen.jpg

[Lehigh Football Nation]

"The Citadel is fine... if you don't mind cannibalism."