Had Lehigh and Towson...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

... switched their opening games, would both have made it in?

If...

Lehigh loses a squeaker to Kent State, ends 9-2, gets "schedule strength"
Towson beats Monmouth, ends 8-3 with huge wins over Nova and Richmond, clearly wins head-to-head with same record

I think so, over New Hampshire and Illinois State.

[CHIP72]

I'd like Towson's odds a lot better in that scenario but not Lehigh's. The Mountain Hawks' issue is that they didn't really beat a good team.

Also, Kent State beat Towson by 20 points, so it wasn't a super-close game that could have gone either way in the last 2 minutes of the game.

[Vitojr130]

... switched their opening games, would both have made it in?

If...

Lehigh loses a squeaker to Kent State, ends 9-2, gets "schedule strength"
Towson beats Monmouth, ends 8-3 with huge wins over Nova and Richmond, clearly wins head-to-head with same record

I think so, over New Hampshire and Illinois State.

No, because they still would not have beaten a quality opponent this year. I'm sorry, but every time I look at Lehigh's schedule I laugh because almost every single one of those teams would be bottom feeders in most of the "power" conferences. If NDSU only played the USD's of the world (USD of course beat Colgate, the eventual Patriot League Champion), there is no way I would say they deserved to be in the playoffs.

[TypicalTribe]

I think Lehigh still ends up behind Stony Brook.

[dazedandconfused]

I'd like Towson's odds a lot better in that scenario but not Lehigh's. The Mountain Hawks' issue is that they didn't really beat a good team.

Also, Kent State beat Towson by 20 points, so it wasn't a super-close game that could have gone either way in the last 2 minutes of the game.

Towson had 6 turnovers in the first half. They actually outgained Kent State and outplayed them in the second half. Kent State is ranked #23 and 10-1 right now.

[BisonBohl]

Towson would be in if that was the case. Lehigh would not, yes it would help your "SOS" but still you wouldn't have beat anyone.

Also ISU-R and UNH weren't even the last two in. If your scenario was real, Towson would probably have bumped out Stony Brook.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

People are missing: "quality loss". Lehigh would have "played somebody".

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

People are missing: "quality loss". Lehigh would have "played somebody".

The only difference between this years schedule and last years is the lack of a quality loss. Liberty amazingly ended up being better this season.

Lehigh's best wins last year were both a home, Liberty and Georgetown.

[UNH Fanboi]

Your argument is laughable. Lehigh got left out because they didn't beat anyone, not because they didn't play an FBS. ODU had an identical record and got a seed.

[Lehigh'98]

This years schedule is no better than last years except for it was a lacking a "quality loss". Liberty amazingly ended up being better this season.

Lehigh's best wins last year were both a home, Liberty and Georgetown.

Last year was irrelevant as we were the AQ. That being said, we still get in last year I believe at 9-2 because we were killing the average teams and the at large field was weaker.

[CHIP72]

Towson had 6 turnovers in the first half. They actually outgained Kent State and outplayed them in the second half. Kent State is ranked #23 and 10-1 right now.

There have been many, many games in football history where a team has a lost a game in which they outgained their opponent and/or outplayed them for a half but lost because of turnovers. That's not an excuse.

Regardless, Towson should be in the playoffs, at least relative to New Hampshire, because they had two wins that were better than any New Hampshire and one of them was at UNH by 29 points. Playing a couple of very good FBS teams on the road and being reasonably competitive has to be at least as impressive as beating a weak FCS team handily at home. The latter doesn't really prove anything because all FCS playoff contending teams generally do that while the former isn't as common.

[UNH Fanboi]

The only difference between this year schedule and last years is the lack of a quality loss. Liberty amazingly ended up being better this season.

Lehigh's best wins last year were both a home, Liberty and Georgetown.

You're missing the difference between (1) this year's RESULTS and last year's results and (2) the depth of this year's field vs. last year's field. Lehigh won their games in much more convincing fashion last year. Also, a loss to Colgate (who lost to MVFC bottom feeder) is much worse than a loss to UNH.

[CHIP72]

The only difference between this year schedule and last years is the lack of a quality loss. Liberty amazingly ended up being better this season.

Lehigh's best wins last year were both a home, Liberty and Georgetown.

Didn't Lehigh beat Georgetown like 34-13 or something like that in 2011? Throttling a good team should count for something more than throttling an average or poor team. Also, Lehigh lost to the best team they played this year (Colgate) and that team was nowhere near as good as UNH (who Lehigh lost to in overtime rather than by 11 points) was or perhaps even as good as Georgetown was in 2011.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Didn't Lehigh beat Georgetown like 34-13 or something like that in 2011? Throttling a good team should count for something more than throttling an average or poor team. Also, Lehigh lost to the best team they played this year (Colgate) and that team was nowhere near as good as UNH (who Lehigh lost to in overtime rather than by 11 points) was or perhaps even as good as Georgetown was in 2011.

Lehigh's most impressive win was over 8-3 Georgetown, no question about it. A Hoya team that didn't sniff an at-large bid in a weak year mind you. Otherwise, Lehigh beat 6-5 Holy Cross by 7 and 7-4 Liberty by 3. Lehigh's win over Liberty was more impressive this year imo.

Colgate might not be as good as UNH last year but it was a league game. Lehigh hadn't lost a league game in over 3 years by the time the Red Raiders got them. The law of averages are going to catch up with you. I think it's a bit unreasonable to expect a team to go through a league 3 straight years undefeated. The betting odds on that in Vegas would be riduclously high.

I can't help but think that had Lehigh lost to Liberty but beat Colgate they would have a bye again, 10-1 and LEAGUE CHAMPS. However, they would be no better of a team.

[CHIP72]

I think Georgetown was a fringe playoff contender last year (i.e. they were probably in the initial conversation but didn't make the second cut). The 2011 Hoyas probably don't make a 24 team field but they would have had more serious consideration in that scenario. If Colgate doesn't win the 2012 Patriot League auto-bid, I don't think they would have even been considered for an at-large bid. They had one very good win (at Lehigh) but did poorly in the non-conference schedule and like the Patriot League as a whole, played a weak schedule.

Lehigh's overtime loss to New Hampshire and fairly easy win over Georgetown were the reasons why everybody who follows the Mountain Hawks (including me) thought they earned a first round bye last year (which they obviously received). This year's Lehigh team didn't have two results anywhere near as good as those two (quality loss to another playoff team, fairly easy win over the next-best team in the conference).

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Lehigh's overtime loss to New Hampshire and fairly easy win over Georgetown were the reasons why everybody who follows the Mountain Hawks (including me) thought they earned a first round bye last year (which they obviously received). This year's Lehigh team didn't have two results anywhere near as good as those two (quality loss to another playoff team, fairly easy win over the next-best team in the conference).

So I ask again: Replace Monmouth with Kent State in the "quality loss" department. I don't think you can deny that everyone's perception of the schedule changes at least to some degree. People would be still bemoaning the lack of "quality wins", but the "schedule strength" argument would go away, thanks to one game against a MAC team, win or lose.

[UNH Fanboi]

So I ask again: Replace Monmouth with Kent State in the "quality loss" department. I don't think you can deny that everyone's perception of the schedule changes at least to some degree. People would be still bemoaning the lack of "quality wins", but the "schedule strength" argument would go away, thanks to one game against a MAC team, win or lose.

Schedule strength only matters to the extent that you win against at least one of the strong teams that you play. A team that went 7-0 against the seven worst teams and 0-4 versus the 4 best teams would not get into the playoffs. I don't know what about this you don't understand. Liberty had a few similar seasons to Lehigh (but had a quality loss) and did not get into the playoffs because they had no quality wins.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Schedule strength only matters to the extent that you win against at least one of the strong teams that you play. A team that went 7-0 against the seven worst teams and 0-4 versus the 4 best teams would not get into the playoffs. I don't know what about this you don't understand. Liberty had a few similar seasons to Lehigh (but had a quality loss) and did not get into the playoffs because they had no quality wins.

They did not go 9-2 with a full Division I schedule, nor did the Big South have an autobid at that time.

[UNH Fanboi]

They did not go 9-2 with a full Division I schedule, nor did the Big South have an autobid at that time.

Which is why is said "similar" seasons. The point is that the Committee does not reward teams simply for playing and losing to an FBS team, and Lehigh playin and losing to an FBS team would have had zero effect on them being selected this year. You have presented no evidence of the Committee selecting a bubble team for merely playing an FBS game.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Which is why is said "similar" seasons. The point is that the Committee does not reward teams simply for playing and losing to an FBS team, and Lehigh playin and losing to an FBS team would have had zero effect on them being selected this year. You have presented no evidence of the Committee selecting a bubble team for merely playing an FBS game.

But the mere fact of having an FBS team on the schedule does feed into one of the supposed criteria for at-large selection - schedule strength.

[Lehigh'98]

But the mere fact of having an FBS team on the schedule does feed into one of the supposed criteria for at-large selection - schedule strength.


All we can do is take our medicine, like it or not, all the angles looking at it wont get us in. Now 10-1 seasons don't come along every year and I feel for this years team really bad, but we can either learn from this with our future scheduling or have this scenario repeated in the years to come. Nothing will change this year now.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

All we can do is take our medicine, like it or not, all the angles looking at it wont get us in. Now 10-1 seasons don't come along every year and I feel for this years team really bad, but we can either learn from this with our future scheduling or have this scenario repeated in the years to come. Nothing will change this year now.

Don't get me wrong, I get that completely. I just want to expose "schedule strength" and FBS games for the sham it is. Win or lose, you get "schedule strength".

[UNH Fanboi]

Don't get me wrong, I get that completely. I just want to expose "schedule strength" and FBS games for the sham it is. Win or lose, you get "schedule strength".

You're exposing nothing. Give me one example of a team getting into the playoffs over a more-qualified team for simply playing an FBS team.

The fact that Towson was left out this year for losing to two FBS teams also discredits your argument.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

You're exposing nothing. Give me one example of a team getting into the playoffs over a more-qualified team for simply playing an FBS team.

Probably not the best time to ask that question.

[ngineer]

I think Lehigh still ends up behind Stony Brook.

Who lost to Liberty just two weeks ago, who lost to Lehigh.

[ngineer]

Lehigh's most impressive win was over 8-3 Georgetown, no question about it. A Hoya team that didn't sniff an at-large bid in a weak year mind you. Otherwise, Lehigh beat 6-5 Holy Cross by 7 and 7-4 Liberty by 3. Lehigh's win over Liberty was more impressive this year imo.

Colgate might not be as good as UNH last year but it was a league game. Lehigh hadn't lost a league game in over 3 years by the time the Red Raiders got them. The law of averages are going to catch up with you. I think it's a bit unreasonable to expect a team to go through a league 3 straight years undefeated. The betting odds on that in Vegas would be riduclously high.

I can't help but think that had Lehigh lost to Liberty but beat Colgate they would have a bye again, 10-1 and LEAGUE CHAMPS. However, they would be no better of a team.

Very good observation.

[lehidude]

There's only so far "schedule strength" can stretch. Last years Lehigh team would have competed with Kent State. This years team would have been HUMILIATED. If we added "schedule strength" to the schedule, we would no longer have been a 10-1 team, let alone a 9-2 or even 8-3 team.

First and foremost, I think the committee factored in the quality (or lack thereof) of the 10 wins that Lehigh brought to the table. Had Colgate beat USD, this may have been a different scenario.

[UNH Fanboi]

Who lost to Liberty just two weeks ago, who lost to Lehigh.

Yes, that solves it. There is no counter argument to that.