Pick your at-larges

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Not going to try and figure out who gets the CAA autobid. Going out on a limb and saying ODU is in, though.

Appalachian State
Wofford
Illinois State
South Dakota State
Montana State
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Richmond
Villanova
Sam Houston State
Stony Brook
Lehigh

Appalachian State
Wofford
Illinois State
South Dakota State
Montana State
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Richmond
Villanova
Sam Houston State
Stony Brook
Lehigh

[Reign of Terrier]

Not going to try and figure out who gets the CAA autobid. Going out on a limb and saying ODU is in, though.

Appalachian State
Wofford
Illinois State
South Dakota State
Montana State
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Richmond
Villanova
Sam Houston State
Stony Brook
Lehigh

Appalachian State
Wofford
Illinois State
South Dakota State
Montana State
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Richmond
Villanova
Sam Houston State
Stony Brook
Lehigh

I agree with the picks, however I would add UTM and EKU to the pool of bubble teams, even though many mentioned teams have better schedules.

[ITmonarch10]

Appalachian State
Wofford
Illinois State
South Dakota State
Montana State
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Richmond
Sam Houston State
Stony Brook
Lehigh
UTM
EKU
ODU

Villanova is the CAA Autobid. I included ODU, EKU and UTM in the list as well.

[FargoBison]

Why should EKU be in over Towson?

The answer has to be 100% politics because EKU certainly isn't more deserving.

[ekufbfan]

So much hate for EKU. All this we deserve the at large because we played a better schedule is a matter of opinion. And most of the opinions are in favor of their team. EKU lost to D1 Purdue and lost to TSU after depletion of the offensive line by a TD in last minute of the game at their place. No excuses for the lost to EIU, they were the better team that day. We beat Coastal Carolina handily who is an AQ. Now we may not get a spot, we may be no more deserving than other "bubble" teams, but we are not less so either. And none of the conferences should have 4 teams.

[FargoBison]

Appalachian State
Wofford
Illinois State
South Dakota State
Montana State
Cal Poly
Richmond
Sam Houston State
ODU
Towson

[GSU Eagle]

Fargo I agree with your list but I believe the committee will put a 10-1 Lehigh team in over a 7-4 Towson team.

[FargoBison]

So much hate for EKU. All this we deserve the at large because we played a better schedule is a matter of opinion. And most of the opinions are in favor of their team. EKU lost to D1 Purdue and lost to TSU after depletion of the offensive line by a TD in last minute of the game at their place. No excuses for the lost to EIU, they were the better team that day. We beat Coastal Carolina handily who is an AQ. Now we may not get a spot, we may be no more deserving than other "bubble" teams, but we are not less so either. And none of the conferences should have 4 teams.

This isn't hate....I have Towson rated #10 in my AGS poll. They are probably the best team in the CAA right now.

Their losses are to FBS ranked LSU and Kent State and FCS ranked ODU and JMU. They just annihilated New Hampshire on the road.

[theirish]

Once again, although they may not make the playoffs, why is Youngstown State not on your list!?

They are playoff eligible, 7-4 with 7 D1 wins (including a 14 point win at Pitt), and have finished the season on a three game winning streak. I'd take them over EKU and perhaps over Towson as well.

[FargoBison]

Fargo I agree with your list but I believe the committee will put a 10-1 Lehigh team in over a 7-4 Towson team.

Probably, the main reason Towson doesn't get in is because of politics.

[ekufbfan]

Why should EKU be in over Towson?

The answer has to be 100% politics because EKU certainly isn't more deserving.

Bring on the whining. Before I could post the above it starts from someone from Fargo no less.xblahx

[FargoBison]

Bring on the whining. Before I could post the above it starts from someone from Fargo no less.xblahx

I stated my reasoning for Towson.

That said you'll probably both get screwed for Lehigh.

[GSU Eagle]

It will be very interesting tomorrow to see if the committee really looks at the computer rankings or bases their decision on the last 3 spots or so primarily on how many FCS wins a team has.

[Grabholdofyosef]

EWU
Coastal
Nova
Bethune
NDSU
Wagner
EIU
Colgate
GSU
C Arkansas

ASU
Wofford
MSU
Cal Poly
ODU
Towson
Richmond
Ill St
SDSU
SHSU

[ekufbfan]

IMO, there are too many spots/teams period. The playoffs should never expanded to this degree. You take the winner of each scholarship FCS conference. Maybe the 2nd place team and that's it!

[GSU Eagle]

Are you kidding? This year we really need the 24 team field.

[ekufbfan]

Are you kidding? This year we really need the 24 team field.

Just my opinion. I see no reason to put 3 or 4 teams from the same conference in, that's why you play a conference schedule.

[sgt smash]

IMO, there are too many spots/teams period. The playoffs should never expanded to this degree. You take the winner of each scholarship FCS conference. Maybe the 2nd place team and that's it!

That would be great...if all conferences were as tough as the OVC.

[ITmonarch10]

IMO, there are too many spots/teams period. The playoffs should never expanded to this degree. You take the winner of each scholarship FCS conference. Maybe the 2nd place team and that's it!

Its the OVC playoff record as of late combined with the fact that EKY shouldn't of gotten in the playoffs last year. EKU got in over someone like Illinois st only because of EKY football heritage.

[FargoBison]

Just my opinion. I see no reason to put 3 or 4 teams from the same conference in, that's why you play a conference schedule.

Well the CAA, MVFC and Big Sky don't even play all the teams in their conferences anymore...the conference schedules can't even prove without doubt who the champ is anymore. ELO-CHESS and GPI almost decided the CAA and MVFC autobid winner.

[danefan]

EKU is a long shot, IMO.

No signature good wins and two losses in the OVC.


I don't think that will be enough when compared to a team with 8 or 9 wins and an FBS win.

Albany's resume is arguably as good if not better than EKU and we're not getting in.

Then again EKU got in last year as a long shot.

[Engineer86]

I stated my reasoning for Towson.

That said you'll probably both get screwed for Lehigh.

My turn! xblahx

[caribbeanhen]

Why should EKU be in over Towson?

The answer has to be 100% politics because EKU certainly isn't more deserving.

didn't EKU get a gift wrapped game last year?

[Engineer86]

didn't EKU get a gift wrapped game last year?

They hosted JMU, with rumours the OVC helped on the bid, but I have no idea if those rumours are true

[mcveyrl]

I know I keep hitting on this, but Sagarin's SoS rates UTM and EKU pretty high...higher than a lot of the CAA and SoCon.

[EKU Toss Sweep]

They hosted JMU, with rumours the OVC helped on the bid, but I have no idea if those rumours are true

Unfounded and untrue but I do love a good rumor. If you want a home game in the playoffs you have to do 2 things. Make the field and you need to have made the bid unless you are "banking" on the seed. Even at 11-0 the seed might not be guaranteed to an OVC school so you can write the check. The bid is 100% in your school's control. If EKU gets in today I don't expect a home game based on bid this year but I do look forward to the whining, assumptions and rumors. I'll be waiting for all the conspiracy theorists over on the grassy knoll when the field is announced so I can watch everybody try to make sense of what happened.

The Colonels are as deserving of a spot on the bubble as all the other teams that lost 1 too many games this year to have slept easy last night.

[mcveyrl]

Appalachian State 8 - 52.72
Wofford 7 - 52.39
Illinois State 8 - 56.65
South Dakota State 8 - 58.1
Montana State 10 - 53.43
Cal Poly 9 - 52.6
Northern Arizona 7 - 55.36
New Hampshire 8 - 46.83
Richmond 8 - 46.14
ODU 10 - 45.88
Sam Houston State 7 - 53.75
Stony Brook 9 - 40.35
Lehigh 10 - 38.8
EKU - 8 - 53.46
UTM 8 - 55.38

So, I listed all of those teams plus UTM and EKU with their wins plus Sagarin's SoS rating (higher numbers are better).

Considering that UTM has eight wins, including an FBS win, with a high SoS, I'd be surprised if they were left out. I also think that if the committee follows the criteria strictly, there could be a couple of other surprises...

[atlfcsfan]

AT LARGE PICKS


LOCKS

1. MONTANA STATE
2. CAL POLY
3 APP STATE
4. OLD DOMINION
5. SAM HOUSTON STATE

BEST BETS TO GET IN

6. SOUTH DAKOTA ST
7. WOFFORD
8. ILLINOIS ST
9. RICHMOND

IN THE MIX FOR LAST SPOT

LEHIGH, NEW HAMPSHIRE, TOWSON, STONY BROOK,E KENTUCKY

ON LIFE SUPPORT( VIRTUALLY NO SHOT)

NO ARIZONA, TENN MARTIN, ALBANY

ELIGBLE, BUT OFFICIALLY NO SHOT

CITADEL, TENN STATE, YOUNGSTOWN ST, JAMES MADISON

[WrenFGun]

Can someone explain to me why Richmond is ahead of UNH in these things? Wouldn't H2H be most important? UNH beat Richmond H2H, with the same overall record.

[Sandlapper Spike]

A
ELIGBLE, BUT OFFICIALLY NO SHOT

CITADEL, TENN STATE, YOUNGSTOWN ST, JAMES MADISON

I'm not sure how they can have "officially" no chance...

[ekufbfan]

Unfounded and untrue but I do love a good rumor. If you want a home game in the playoffs you have to do 2 things. Make the field and you need to have made the bid unless you are "banking" on the seed. Even at 11-0 the seed might not be guaranteed to an OVC school so you can write the check. The bid is 100% in your school's control. If EKU gets in today I don't expect a home game based on bid this year but I do look forward to the whining, assumptions and rumors. I'll be waiting for all the conspiracy theorists over on the grassy knoll when the field is announced so I can watch everybody try to make sense of what happened.

The Colonels are as deserving of a spot on the bubble as all the other teams that lost 1 too many games this year to have slept easy last night.
Toss, don't you wish EKU had all this "political" clout people talk about? If we did I would be confident today.xprayx

[EKU Toss Sweep]

Can someone explain to me why Richmond is ahead of UNH in these things? Wouldn't H2H be most important? UNH beat Richmond H2H, with the same overall record.

Yes, H2H is important and a great eye test. An equally easy eye test is "finish strong". Granted Towson is playing good football right now but that loss yesterday and the points that UNH is a is not going to help the cause.

[WrenFGun]

UNH finished the season 6-1. Hard to finish stronger than that. The one loss was awful, but it's still a pretty solid trend. I'm not saying I'd be surprised if they were left out, but there's plenty of reason for them to get in.

[EKU Toss Sweep]

UNH finished the season 6-1. Hard to finish stronger than that. The one loss was awful, but it's still a pretty solid trend. I'm not saying I'd be surprised if they were left out, but there's plenty of reason for them to get in.

Welcome to the bubble. I'm not saying UNH doesn't deserve a spot in the field or on the bubble. Prior to yesterday I had you solidly in the field and with yesterday's performance I would now see you put you on the bubble with the rest of us. Come on over we saved you a seat right there by the Terriers.

[BEAR]

So many fans, so many schools...so few spots. xlolx Great year by the FCS! xclapx

[TTUEagles]

As far as the OVC goes, take UTM out for having a bad loss (at a pitiful 3-8 TTU) late in the season and TSU is out for losing 3 of it's last 4, with that 1 win coming on the last play of the game, at home, against said pitiful TTU. Despite my elation at defeating UTM (so I don't have to hear it from the UTM grads that are my close friends), I wish they would have won (ONLY for the OVC's sake) for I feel that the Pacers/Skyhawks were the best OVC team, anyway -- have the best shot at being successful in the opening round. I doubt the committee can or will take that into consideration.
As far as last year is concerned, I think EKU got in because it was the stronger of the two that TIED TTU for the OVC championship - with TTU getting the AQ due to defeating EKU...TTU really didn't belong, they got hammered by UCA who then got pummeled by Montana. EKU barely lost - to me, that proved that they DID belong in the field of 20.

[Skyhawk71]

Yep, did the Tech team that beat UTM stay home yesterday, because APSU didn't suddenly get good at football........UTM's black eye turned into a skull fracture on that one; Skyhawk fans knew the bubble burst on that day, but the coaches had to play up a shot at the playoffs so we didn't lay a second egg against TSU........Good Luck to EKU today

[TTUEagles]

Yep, did the Tech team that beat UTM stay home yesterday, because APSU didn't suddenly get good at football........UTM's black eye turned into a skull fracture on that one; Skyhawk fans knew the bubble burst on that day, but the coaches had to play up a shot at the playoffs so we didn't lay a second egg against TSU........Good Luck to EKU today

Like some of TTU's fans, I think TTU thought the game started at 1 PM instead of 11 AM (moved early in the week for TV - who decided on televising that stink-fest???).

[Skyhawk71]

Yeah, I saw the time and thought maybe the UTM v. TSU would have drawn more interest on TV, Good luck to the Techsters next season, UTM will lose everybody, so it will be back to the normal obscurity in the middle of the pack next year

[Professor Chaos]

Big Sky: Montana St, Cal Poly
CAA: Old Dominion, New Hampshire, Richmond
MVFC: South Dakota St, Illinois St
SOCON: Appalachian St, Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston St

Last 4 in: South Dakota St, Wofford, Richmond, Illinois St
First 4 out: Stony Brook, Towson, Northern Arizona, Lehigh
Next 4 out: James Madison, Tennessee-Martin, Indiana St, Youngstown St

[PAllen]

Probably, the main reason Towson doesn't get in is because of politics.

Or it could be the three extra losses.xsmhx

[PAllen]

I don't think UNH gets in for one reason. The committee is looking for a way to weed out some of the logjam that is the top of the CAA this year. Getting crushed by Towson at home yesterday is an easy thing to point to in order to leave them out. You can't take 6 from the same conference, and if you draw the line at 8 Div-I wins this year, Towson may have done the at large field a huge favor.

[FargoBison]

Or it could be the three extra losses.xsmhx

They lost to two ranked FBS teams and one of them is named LSU who they played extremely tough. Towson is the team I definitely don't want to play so if they are out I won't be crushed but if the committee is picking the best teams they would be in. Of course politics will come into play which could and probably will screw them.

[asumike83]

I don't think there is any question that Wofford is one of the 20 best teams in the FCS but I'm not sure they get a bid. Could be a victim of their own scheduling, once again. I want them in to represent the SoCon and I think they could make some noise but I just don't know why they continue to set themselves up to be a bubble team.

This now makes 3 straight years (and 8 of the last 11) that Wofford has scheduled an FBS game and a DII. At some point, you've got to change your philosophy or have no one but yourself to blame for getting 'Woffed'.

[Engineer86]

I don't think there is any question that Wofford is one of the 20 best teams in the FCS but I'm not sure they get a bid. Could be a victim of their own scheduling, once again. I want them in to represent the SoCon and I think they could make some noise but I just don't know why they continue to set themselves up to be a bubble team.

This now makes 3 straight years (and 8 of the last 11) that Wofford has scheduled an FBS game and a DII. At some point, you've got to change your philosophy or have no one but yourself to blame for getting 'Woffed'.

Today will be interesting and if Lehigh gets in, it tells me that the committee applies a more even value to DI wins than most on this board. I would also view that Lehigh's AD has a real good handle of how the committee operates. If Lehigh does not get in then he underestimated the value the committee puts on strength of schedule.

Lehigh in or out will be a clear message to the committee approach.

[FargoBison]

My Bracket...

Colgate vs Bethune-Cookman at #1 NDSU
Cal Poly vs SDSU

EIU @ ISUR at #4 MSU
Villanova vs #5 SHSU

Wofford vs CCU vs #2 EWU
UCA vs App State

Wagner vs Lehigh at #3 ODU
UNH vs GSU

[PAllen]

My Bracket...

Colgate vs Bethune-Cookman at #1 NDSU
Cal Poly vs SDSU

EIU @ ISUR at #4 MSU
Villanova vs #5 SHSU

Wofford vs CCU vs #2 EWU
UCA vs App State

Wagner vs Lehigh at #3 ODU
UNH vs GSU

I like it, although I would probably give GSU the #5 over SHSU which probably means switching UNH and Bethune Cookman too.

[MacThor]

Can someone explain to me why Richmond is ahead of UNH in these things? Wouldn't H2H be most important? UNH beat Richmond H2H, with the same overall record.
Yes UNH won a controversial 4 pt game at home on Oct 13. I understand H2H frustration having watched JMU and VU remain ranked ahead of UR all season with identical records when UR beat them both.

Fair or not all 6 CAA contenders knew yesterday was essentially a play-in round and UNH got thumped at home. It almost makes it worse that they were the one team that could clinch with a win. Not an inspiring audition for the committee.

[FargoBison]

I like it, although I would probably give GSU the #5 over SHSU

Well I do think my top 4 seeds are all locks to get seeded, that last spot is just so close and I definitely wouldn't be surprised if GSU or App State got it instead.

[DoubleH]

Why does everyone like Richmond over Towson??? They have wins over Gardner-Webb, VMI, Georgia State, W&M, and Rhode Island (all somewhere between bad and terrible), plus a win over Delaware, and losses to a bad UVA team, ODU and UNH. Their signature wins are JMU and 'Nova.

Towson has losses to ranked LSU and ranked Kent State, plus ODU (by 11) and JMU 9 (by 3). Wins over St Francis, W&M, Maine, Delaware, and Rhode Island, and signature wins over 'Nova and UNH. Throw out either teams' FBS opponents and Towson is 7-2, Richmond 8-2. Don't tell me that OOC win over Gardner-Webb is what gets the Spiders in.

[RabidRabbit]

Appalachian State 8 - 52.72
Wofford 7 - 52.39
Illinois State 8 - 56.65
South Dakota State 8 - 58.1
Montana State 10 - 53.43
Cal Poly 9 - 52.6
Northern Arizona 7 - 55.36
New Hampshire 8 - 46.83
Richmond 8 - 46.14
ODU 10 - 45.88
Sam Houston State 7 - 53.75
Stony Brook 9 - 40.35
Lehigh 10 - 38.8
EKU - 8 - 53.46
UTM 8 - 55.38

So, I listed all of those teams plus UTM and EKU with their wins plus Sagarin's SoS rating (higher numbers are better).

Considering that UTM has eight wins, including an FBS win, with a high SoS, I'd be surprised if they were left out. I also think that if the committee follows the criteria strictly, there could be a couple of other surprises...

SDSU has the highest SOS rating here, why do most reviewers discount the Jacks from getting the 5th seed?

[Mattymc727]

Its easy, CAA gets 3 in, ODU, Nova, and Towson. Towson beat UNH who beat Richmond, Richmond and UNH get the bounce

[Professor Chaos]

Why does everyone like Richmond over Towson??? They have wins over Gardner-Webb, VMI, Georgia State, W&M, and Rhode Island (all somewhere between bad and terrible), plus a win over Delaware, and losses to a bad UVA team, ODU and UNH. Their signature wins are JMU and 'Nova.

Towson has losses to ranked LSU and ranked Kent State, plus ODU (by 11) and JMU 9 (by 3). Wins over St Francis, W&M, Maine, Delaware, and Rhode Island, and signature wins over 'Nova and UNH. Throw out either teams' FBS opponents and Towson is 7-2, Richmond 8-2. Don't tell me that OOC win over Gardner-Webb is what gets the Spiders in.
That's what I'll tell you. Even a D1 cupcake win is worth more than an FBS loss.

[theirish]

I know Haley has four CAA teams in, but his beloved GPI has the CAA SIXTH among all FCS conferences this season. MVFC as #1.

Explain to me how the CAA 7-4 Towson is more deserving than the MVFC's 7-4 YSU???

Worthy argument discussed on the radio in ND today.

[Eight Legger]

Why does everyone like Richmond over Towson??? They have wins over Gardner-Webb, VMI, Georgia State, W&M, and Rhode Island (all somewhere between bad and terrible), plus a win over Delaware, and losses to a bad UVA team, ODU and UNH. Their signature wins are JMU and 'Nova.

Towson has losses to ranked LSU and ranked Kent State, plus ODU (by 11) and JMU 9 (by 3). Wins over St Francis, W&M, Maine, Delaware, and Rhode Island, and signature wins over 'Nova and UNH. Throw out either teams' FBS opponents and Towson is 7-2, Richmond 8-2. Don't tell me that OOC win over Gardner-Webb is what gets the Spiders in.

I'm not an attorney, but it seems to me that if you're going to debate the merits of UR's wins and bemoan its signature wins, perhaps you shouldn't then turn around and use many of those same teams in describing Towson's high-caliber wins.

I think Towson is one of the best 20 teams in the country, but you get zero credit for losing games. I don't care who you lost to. I could argue that had UR not scheduled UVA and instead beat some other FCS team, we'd be 9-2 instead of 8-3. Who cares? We did lose that game, and our record is 8-3. Yours is 7-4. Too many teams with more wins this year to take a 7-4 team – even a good one.