CAA Football Announces Updated Tie-Breaker System

[superman7515]

The FCS Playoff Committee has agreed to hold off on selections until after Sagarin publishes his ELO-CHESS ratings so the CAA can decide an autobid.

http://www.caafootballblog.com/2012/11/update-to-caa-football-autobid.html


CAA Football has announced a slight update to its automatic qualifier tiebreaker process following the Division I Football Championship Committee’s decision to allow the league to utilize Jeff Sagarin’s most up-to-date ELO_CHESS variance in determining its autobid process. The Sagarin ratings are set to be released after the conclusion of all FCS games on Saturday. The Committee’s decision was reached on Thursday and communicated directly to the league office soon after.

Given that a number of the league’s autobid tiebreaker scenarios could end with the need to use the Sagarin ratings, the most current of which will become available following the conclusion of FCS play on Saturday, CAA Football will institute these ratings in the process of determining its autobid if necessary.

“I would like to thank the NCAA Committee for allowing us to use the most recent data possible,” said CAA Commissioner Tom Yeager. “The Committee’s decision recognizes our desire for a fair and accurate tiebreaker process. I would like to reiterate that no part of the tiebreaking procedures are in any way altered by the Committee’s decision, but rather its decision affords us the opportunity to utilize the most current data that reflects the entirety of the regular season.”

Please see below for the full list of CAA Football’s autobid tiebreaker scenarios. Note that Jeff Sagarin’s ELO_CHESS variance reflects game played as of Nov. 10.


CAA Football Automatic NCAA Bid Tiebreaker Scenarios
*Updated Nov. 15, 2012
Maine at Rhode Island; Towson at New Hampshire; Richmond at William and Mary; Villanova at Delaware; Old Dominion at James Madison

1. New Hampshire clinches automatic bid with a victory over Towson.
2. The 16 scenarios below will be used if New Hampshire loses to Towson.
3. CAA Football’s final tiebreaker involves the application of Jeff Sagarin’s ELO_CHESS variance. The Division I Football Championship Committee will allow CAA Football the time necessary to determine its automatic qualifier using Sagarin’s most up-to-date ratings variance following all of the Division I Football games played Nov. 17.

Scenario 1 & 2
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW, UR, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent…versus ODU (7-1): UNH 0-1, UR 0-1, TOW 0-1, NOVA 1-0 --- NOVA is autobid.

Scenario 3 & 4
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- TOW is 2-0 versus all tied teams, UNH did not face NOVA but a win for either would make them 1-1 in the group…still not a better winning percentage than TOW in the scenario --- TOW is autobid.

Scenario 12 & 13
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW both 6-2 -- TOW beat UNH head-to-head --- TOW is autobid.

Scenario 5 & 10
JMU, UNH, ODU, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 6 & 15
JMU, UNH, ODU, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 7 & 11
JMU, UNH, ODU, UR, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 8 & 9
JMU, UNH, ODU, UR, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

Scenario 14 & 16
ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, UR, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent; ELO_CHESS…versus ODU (7-1): UNH 0-1, UR 0-1, TOW 0-1; versus DEL (3-5): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; versus WM (1-7): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; versus URI (0-8): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; ELO_CHESS rating (released following all Division I games Saturday) --- autobid will be determined upon Sagarin release.

[bluehenbillk]

I feel completely unbiased in voicing my opinion on this as my Blue Hens have miserably struck out this season: For the teams involved I'd really hope that one of the 6 options that actually crown a team the autobid is used.

To use the Sagarin ratings, much less the ELO_CHESS version is unadulterated garbage. First of all, computer ratings should NEVER determine a champion. The BCS system is one that only an idiot would emulate & follow. Secondly, even Jeff Sagarin himself this past week called the ELO_CHESS rating nonsensical in a BCS interview. Neither he nor anyone associated with the BCS has issued a public statement on why they use that formula versus the normal Sagarin rating. The only difference between the two I believe is margin of victory.

Look I understand that b/c there are 11 CAA teams they couldn't all play each other but you just have to go with best records between the tied teams by % and if it's still tied then by something like points scored, points against or margin of victory in those games involving tied teams.

Can you imagine the travesty of coaches, players & fans hitting the refresh button on the computers or phones at 1AM Sunday to see who's computer rating is highest, a rating that not one of them has a clue on how such a rating is formulated. Garbage. The CAA took a mighty swing & missed the ball by a mile on this one.

Thumbs down Yeager.

[T-Dog]

And I thought the SoCon tiebreaker rules were confusing.

[FargoBison]

Well at least the CAA well get an updated ranking, still not sure how the MVFC would get a fully updated GPI in time.

[Bear84]

I think the price of UNH stock just dropped.

[superman7515]

Well at least the CAA well get an updated ranking, still not sure how the MVFC would get a fully updated GPI in time.

The same way the CAA did, get the committee to agree to hold off however long it takes so they can determine a champ. Haha. ECB

[HailSzczur]

Imagine what AGS will be like if UNH loses and one of 10 of 16 Elo Chess situations comes into play. All the CAA posters plus who ever else cares waiting, speculating, holding their breathe until the Sagarin data is released. Good thing we don't put our faith in a computer to tell us what to do xthumbsupx

[Nova09]

So ODU can count as the highest common opponent when they are the top team and denied the autobid, but not when they are part of the tie of top teams? Seems illogical. I would think the first step should be to remove ODU from consideration, then run the tiebreakers, counting games against ODU if necessary.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Why not just stop the madness, and declare ODU the autobid winner? xlolx

[SpidersUR]

Does anyone have the ELO_Chess ratings for previous weeks? Is there anyway to guess on the result if a certain scenario would occur?

[fatmonarch]

I think the biggest strike will be if odu beats jmu, the best team in the conference will not receive the auto bid. The CAA office is garbage and it is showing. First, it was keeping the basketball tournament in Richmond, now it's how they are determine their auto bid to the playoffs.

[bostonspider]

The Monarchs knew that by leaving the conference they set themselves up to not receive the automatic bid for any CAA sport, and to not even be eligible for the CAA tournaments. I do not see why you are complaining now? I did not see any tears shed by ODU when it was Richmond that was ineligible back in 2001.

[UNH Fanboi]

With an unbalanced schedule, ELO chess is as valid as any other tiebreaker.

[fatmonarch]

It's always bad when the best team doesn't get the auto bid. It was a dumb rule when it was enacted 10 years ago and it's a dumb rule now. Nobody gains anything from it.

[HailSzczur]

All I can say is lets go road teams this weekend. Then we don't have to worry about scenarios and Nova takes the autobid :D

[grayghost06]

So ODU can count as the highest common opponent when they are the top team and denied the autobid, but not when they are part of the tie of top teams? Seems illogical. I would think the first step should be to remove ODU from consideration, then run the tiebreakers, counting games against ODU if necessary.

I broached the same subject w/ the JMU beat writer. I'll see what he finds out. If I don't hear anything satisfactory, I'm going to email directly to the CAA and cc to the Richmond Times Dispatch. If you look at the CAA football handbook, it looks like they're making up rules on the fly.

[HailSzczur]

I broached the same subject w/ the JMU beat writer. I'll see what he finds out. If I don't hear anything satisfactory, I'm going to email directly to the CAA and cc to the Richmond Times Dispatch. If you look at the CAA football handbook, it looks like they're making up rules on the fly.

Well I mean they have to be making it up on the fly. I doubt anyone writes tiebreaker scenarios for teams that are in transition, are eligible for postseason play but not conference titles. I mean how often will that ever be useful?

[ODU Oldtimer]

The Monarchs knew that by leaving the conference they set themselves up to not receive the automatic bid for any CAA sport, and to not even be eligible for the CAA tournaments. I do not see why you are complaining now? I did not see any tears shed by ODU when it was Richmond that was ineligible back in 2001.

This is actually two different issues.

The CAA Football Association is a different Governing Body than the CAA that is the body that represents all sports, but football. Richmond is a member of the CAA Football Association ................The CAA (All other sports) has by-laws that emphatically state a School gives up the opportunity to compete for title(s) if they depart the CAA. That is what Richmond did in 2001. Not Football....

We (ODU) are limited by the same by-laws for the sports that are under the CAA umbrella that covers Basketball, Baseball...etc.

YOU are still a member (Richmond) of CAA Football.

However the bylaws are different for football CAA. It clearly says it is left up to the governing body of said institutions.

For the record the University Presidents were asked to vote on the issue, a non-binding vote that made a recommendation to the AD's of the Schools The Presidents voted unanimously to allow the student athletes to compete for the CAA Football title. A vote was then taken by each of the member Schools.....AD's. They voted to restrict the title eligibility from ODU.

GA State..... they are an Independent this year, and not a member of CAA Football or the CAA conference. They are now in the 1st year of the 2 year transition period to FBS. ODU however is a full member in 2012-13 for football.

These are the facts!

[Nova09]

Well I mean they have to be making it up on the fly. I doubt anyone writes tiebreaker scenarios for teams that are in transition, are eligible for postseason play but not conference titles. I mean how often will that ever be useful?

True to a certain extent, but it's not like it takes complex reasoning to work it into the language--all that needs to be added is a line that says "remove all teams ineligible to receive the league autobid from consideration before progressing through tiebreakers." In a sense, this is already implied when only 2 teams are tied and one is ineligible. They don't run the tiebreaker and then say "oh well that team is ineligible," they just say "that team is ineligible so no need to consider them in any tiebreaker."

[WrenFGun]

It's always bad when the best team doesn't get the auto bid. It was a dumb rule when it was enacted 10 years ago and it's a dumb rule now. Nobody gains anything from it.

I'd say the auto-bid winner gains something from it.

[NHwildEcat]

UNH will simplfy this and beat Towson.

And I don't see why ODU is cryin', JMU will win that matchup too.

[JMUNJ08]

UNH will simplfy this and beat Towson.

And I don't see why ODU is cryin', JMU will win that matchup too.

I REALLY value your opinion on our game! I will be pulling for it and a nice local establishment in NYC with plenty of other fellow Dukes!

[fatmonarch]

I do not represent odu. I'm just an alumnus/fan. I didn't like the rule from the beginning. No crying here, just stating that I think it's stupid. I wouldn't say odu as a school is crying.

I do, however, expect Mickey Matthews to be crying saturday night when Taylor heinicke shreds his defense.

[grayghost06]

Those ELO Chess numbers can change pretty dramatically. Villanova went up 4 points by beating JMU and we actually gained a little bit in the loss. I'm guessing just about every team involved in Div I football can alter another team's rating by their performance this weekend. Crazy stuff and most of it is out of JMU's hands. All we can do is win & hope.

[theasushow]

Is this the same Sagarin that has UNI at #5? if so.......this is preposterous.

[ODUalum78]

This is actually two different issues.

The CAA Football Association is a different Governing Body than the CAA that is the body that represents all sports, but football. Richmond is a member of the CAA Football Association ................The CAA (All other sports) has by-laws that emphatically state a School gives up the opportunity to compete for title(s) if they depart the CAA. That is what Richmond did in 2001. Not Football....
We (ODU) are limited by the same by-laws for the sports that are under the CAA umbrella that covers Basketball, Baseball...etc.

YOU are still a member (Richmond) of CAA Football.

However the bylaws are different for football CAA. It clearly says it is left up to the governing body of said institutions.

For the record the University Presidents were asked to vote on the issue, a non-binding vote that made a recommendation to the AD's of the Schools The Presidents voted unanimously to allow the student athletes to compete for the CAA Football title. A vote was then taken by each of the member Schools.....AD's. They voted to restrict the title eligibility from ODU.

GA State..... they are an Independent this year, and not a member of CAA Football or the CAA conference. They are now in the 1st year of the 2 year transition period to FBS. ODU however is a full member in 2012-13 for football.

These are the facts!

That is sort of incorrect.

AFTER VCU, ODU and GaSt announced their respective departures, the CAA changed it's Constitution. Prior to that, the CAA all sports had NO codified postseason ban; either stated or implied. The CAA had NO bylaw that referenced departing members whatsoever; much less one that defined championship ineligibility.
The wording was almost identical to that of CAA Football sans the "particular care" phrase.

CAA football has not changed;

7.03 Upon the notice of withdrawal, the remaining Conference members retain the right to determine the
effective date of the institution’s membership withdrawal and the rights and privileges of membership
that will be extended prior to the effective date of the institution’s withdrawal. Particular care,
discussion and consideration shall be given to any action that would negatively impact the interests of all
student-athletes.
http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/supportfiles/Handbook/FB/CAAFBHANDBOOKweb.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=8500

I believe that the CAA allowed the media to misintepret it's rules (re: GaSt and ODU) in order to limit PR damage, and then quickly amended it's Constitution. There was no reason for ODU to believe that it would be ruled ineligible based on the rule per se.

[jmufan999]

Sure are a lot of people assuming JMU has no chance to beat ODU. I'm not saying JMU wins, but we at least have a chance.

We lost by only 3 on the road vs. ODU last year, and this year we're at home. With a 5th year Sr. at QB instead of a RS Freshman in his 3rd ever start (1st start on the road). And we were without THREE starters on the O-line, this year JMU is without only one. Huge difference on both counts. JMU will play better in 2012 vs. ODU than we did in 2011, I can guarantee that much. Turnovers/penalties/injuries can always change football games, though.

[walliver]

Computer rankings make bad tiebreakers. The BCS has de-emphasized computers. Several years ago, the BCS matchup depended on the outcome of a game with a mediocre Notre Dame team as the outcome of that game affected Southern Cal's SOS.

[ITmonarch10]

Sure are a lot of people assuming JMU has no chance to beat ODU. I'm not saying JMU wins, but we at least have a chance.

We lost by only 3 on the road vs. ODU last year, and this year we're at home. With a 5th year Sr. at QB instead of a RS Freshman in his 3rd ever start (1st start on the road). And we were without THREE starters on the O-line, this year JMU is without only one. Huge difference on both counts. JMU will play better in 2012 vs. ODU than we did in 2011, I can guarantee that much. Turnovers/penalties/injuries can always change football games, though.

There aren't to many people saying JMU can't win. Its a rivalry game anything can happen. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the Grizz knocked off the bobcats.

[CSN-info]

Well at least the CAA well get an updated ranking, still not sure how the MVFC would get a fully updated GPI in time.

It is updated and delivered Selection Sunday morning.

[jmufan999]

There aren't to many people saying JMU can't win. Its a rivalry game anything can happen. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the Grizz knocked off the bobcats.

I also would not be surprised with a Griz upset. I guess the ODU/JMU thing just comes down to what people see in the rankings. The fact is that it's a great instant-rivalry game in VA in the fall. Which is gorgeous at JMU, kinda feels like Lehigh as far as the scenery. JMU CB's can't cover the ODU WR's. But can the ODU LB's cover the JMU RB's? That will determine the game.

[ODUalum78]

I also would not be surprised with a Griz upset. I guess the ODU/JMU thing just comes down to what people see in the rankings. The fact is that it's a great instant-rivalry game in VA in the fall. Which is gorgeous at JMU, kinda feels like Lehigh as far as the scenery. JMU CB's can't cover the ODU WR's. But can the ODU LB's cover the JMU RB's? That will determine the game.

One of the adjustments UR made at halftime was to isolate our LBs in coverage. It was not pretty...for us.