Haley's latest take...

[georgecostanza]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/writers/infcshuddle/index.htm

IN (for sure)...

Big Sky: (3)
Montana State
Eastern Washington
Winner of CP vs. NA

Big South: (1)
CC/Stony Brook/Liberty (auto)

CAA: (2)
Old Dominion
New Hampshire

MEAC: (1)
Bethune-Cookman (auto)

MVFC: (2)
North Dakota State
Illinois State

NEC: (1)
Wagner/Albany (auto)

OVC: (1)
Eastern Illinois (auto)

Patriot: (1)
Colgate (auto)

SoCon: (3)
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
Wofford

Southland: (2)
Central Arkansas (auto)
Sam Houston State

That's 17...

It's gonna be one helluva weekend!

[frozennorth]

wofford should not be on the sure thing list at 7-3

[Mr. Pink]

wofford should not be on the sure thing list at 7-3

They won the SOCON championship... they are in... for sure...

[frozennorth]

They won the SOCON championship... they are in... for sure...

are they the AQ?

[JMUNJ08]

are they the AQ?

Nope, so I'm with you. A loss by UNH and the perfect storm in the CAA makes them a non lock as well.

[ITmonarch10]

are they the AQ?
From what I have seen the AQ is going to be most likely App with Wofford having no shot at winning it. Wofford, NAU, and Indiana State will all have the same problems come selection time when poll position isn't going to mean so much.

[GeauxLions94]

South Dakota State WILL be in! Book it! xthumbsupx

[blueballs]

From what I have seen the AQ is going to be most likely App with Wofford having no shot at winning.

You're half right... Wofford is on thin ice assuming they lose to USC and finish with only 7 D-1 wins.

The SoCon autobid will be decided based solely on the outcome of the Citadel vs. Furman this Saturday. If Furman wins App gets it, if the Citadel wins GSU gets it. There are no other factors at play.

[SpeedkingATL]

Unfortunately, scheduling a Sub-Div 1 game might come back and bite the Ankle-biters. I hope they get in and certainly think they are one of the top 20 teams in FCS but they are certainly on the bubble with only 7 Div 1 wins.

[WrenFGun]

Nope, so I'm with you. A loss by UNH and the perfect storm in the CAA makes them a non lock as well.

Yep. I don't think UNH (weakish resume) or Wofford (7 DI wins) can be considered locks right now.

[MTfan4life]

They won the SOCON championship... they are in... for sure...

You say they won the SoCon. Actually Georgia Southern lost the SoCon, and Wofford happened to be lucky enough for a share of the title to fall into their laps. If New Hampshire loses and the other top four teams win should all the CAA teams be in the playoffs for "winning the CAA championship?" No. When there's a tie of teams at 2 losses each, none of those teams have earned the bid. They were simply fortunate that the other teams in the conference were just as inconsistent as them. Being fortunate enough to win a conference with two conference losses does not automatically give any non AQ team the right to be in the playoffs.

[KUlawJack]

Here's my biggest beef regarding the MVFC predictions I've seen. People have ISU-R as a lock. However, if they lose to NDSU, they are only 5-3 in conference. If ISU-B and SDSU win, they will both by 6-2 relegating ISU-R to 4th place in the conference. Its ludicrous that the 4th place team will get in and SDSU may be on the outside looking in with a better conference record and the same overall record. ISU-R lost at home to both SIU (shut out) and Missouri State. Jacks beat both, SIU being on the road. SIU and SDSU both won at ISU-B. ISU-R does have an FBS win, but Eastern Michigan is garbage. Their only win is over Army, who is also terrible.

Now, if ISU-R beats NDSU, I have no beef, so this is all admittedly premature anyhow.

[Go Apps]

Unfortunately, scheduling a Sub-Div 1 game might come back and bite the Ankle-biters. I hope they get in and certainly think they are one of the top 20 teams in FCS but they are certainly on the bubble with only 7 Div 1 wins.

If Wofford is out then so is Sam Houston State - they will be 7-1 and did not play in a great conference and lost to C Arkansas - if E Illinois beats UCA then trouble for sure as the strength of the Southland will tumble and no doubt the OVC gets a second bid - Sam has no top 25 wins to ther credit...I still can't understand why they are ranked so high??? I believe Wofford gets in before they do

[URMite]

South Dakota State WILL be in! Book it! xthumbsupx
Even with a loss to the PL champ vanquishers?

Yes, that is quite a long shot and do believe they should be in with a win.

[georgecostanza]

Here's my biggest beef regarding the MVFC predictions I've seen. People have ISU-R as a lock. However, if they lose to NDSU, they are only 5-3 in conference. If ISU-B and SDSU win, they will both by 6-2 relegating ISU-R to 4th place in the conference. Its ludicrous that the 4th place team will get in and SDSU may be on the outside looking in with a better conference record and the same overall record. ISU-R lost at home to both SIU (shut out) and Missouri State. Jacks beat both, SIU being on the road. SIU and SDSU both won at ISU-B. ISU-R does have an FBS win, but Eastern Michigan is garbage. Their only win is over Army, who is also terrible.

Now, if ISU-R beats NDSU, I have no beef, so this is all admittedly premature anyhow.
I don't think it's an either/or scenario. SDSU is in with a win this weekend. ILSU body of work is solid. 8 Ws, FBS win, win over OVC auto-bid, great GPI, great SoS.

What about this scenario, though. People are clamoring about Wofford being a lock, because they won a share of the SoCon. Is Indiana State a lock if they win a share of the Valley? Need help from ISU to make it happen though.

[MTfan4life]

If Wofford is out then so is Sam Houston State - they will be 7-1 and did not play in a great conference and lost to C Arkansas - if E Illinois beats UCA then trouble for sure as the strength of the Southland will tumble and no doubt the OVC gets a second bid - UCA has no top 25 wins to ther credit...I still can't understand why they are ranked so high??? I believe Wofford gets in before they do

Other than arbitrary opinion, what is it about the Southland that makes you think it's such a bad conference? Could it be that one of its fourth place teams beat a currently 6-3 FBS team? (MTSU) Could it be that its other fourth place team took Montana State to the wire in Bozeman? Also, what is it about Sam Houston that is so weak? How many teams has Wofford played where they handed them their worst FCS defeat of the season by more than ten points? 0. Same question for Sam Houston? 4 and that's their last 4 games as well. They have handed their last four opponents a defeat by an average of 33 points per game more than that their previous worst defeat was. You can make all the arbitrary opinions you want about the Southland or SHSU, but when you actually look deeper into them, they're much stronger than you may believe.

[georgecostanza]

If Wofford is out then so is Sam Houston State - they will be 7-1 and did not play in a great conference and lost to C Arkansas - if E Illinois beats UCA then trouble for sure as the strength of the Southland will tumble and no doubt the OVC gets a second bid - UCA has no top 25 wins to ther credit...I still can't understand why they are ranked so high??? I believe Wofford gets in before they do
Sam Houston St???

[STACCATS]

Yep. I don't think UNH (weakish resume) or Wofford (7 DI wins) can be considered locks right now.

New Hampshire has 8 D1 wins........

[KUlawJack]

I don't think it's an either/or scenario. SDSU is in with a win this weekend. ILSU body of work is solid. 8 Ws, FBS win, win over OVC auto-bid, great GPI, great SoS.

What about this scenario, though. People are clamoring about Wofford being a lock, because they won a share of the SoCon. Is Indiana State a lock if they win a share of the Valley? Need help from ISU to make it happen though.

Understood. I hope its not an either/or scenario. I guess I'm already arguing for SDSU to be the second MVFC team in and not allowing the games to play out. All premature on my part.

If ISU-R does beat NDSU and SDSU and ISU-B win, we have a 4-way tie atop the MVFC. Not awesome for clarity.

[KATS_21]

If Wofford is out then so is Sam Houston State - they will be 7-1 and did not play in a great conference and lost to C Arkansas - if E Illinois beats UCA then trouble for sure as the strength of the Southland will tumble and no doubt the OVC gets a second bid - UCA has no top 25 wins to ther credit...I still can't understand why they are ranked so high??? I believe Wofford gets in before they do

All of you that continue to blast the SLC need to find another conference to hammer. The SLC is getting 2 teams in this year, UCA went 1-1 in the playoffs last year and Sam went 3-1 with a loss to NDSU in the NC game. UCA will be tough in the playoffs and I think Sam Houston has just as good a chance as anyone in the top 5 teams to make it back to Frisco.

[NHwildEcat]

All of you that continue to blast the SLC need to find another conference to hammer. The SLC is getting 2 teams in this year, UCA went 1-1 in the playoffs last year and Sam went 3-1 with a loss to NDSU in the NC game. UCA will be tough in the playoffs and I think Sam Houston has just as good a chance as anyone in the top 5 teams to make it back to Frisco.

I project to have them both in with the bracket I just filled out. Clear to me.

[Go Apps]

Other than arbitrary opinion, what is it about the Southland that makes you think it's such a bad conference? Could it be that one of its fourth place teams beat a currently 6-3 FBS team? (MTSU) Could it be that its other fourth place team took Montana State to the wire in Bozeman? Also, what is it about Sam Houston that is so weak? How many teams has Wofford played where they handed them their worst FCS defeat of the season by more than ten points? 0. Same question for Sam Houston? 4 and that's their last 4 games as well. They have handed their last four opponents a defeat by an average of 33 points per game more than that their previous worst defeat was. You can make all the arbitrary opinions you want about the Southland or SHSU, but when you actually look deeper into them, they're much stronger than you may believe.

For Sam you have to look for top 25 wins and losses, that is what the committee does - they are 0-1 - no other teams are even in consideration from their conference - they played 2 FBS schools, maybe you shouldn't have done that - they played a DII school another bad decision - so how do put them in over Wofford or better yet lets say 5 CAA teams finish at 8-3 with 8 DI wins ? or add in a possible 4 from the MVC - is Stoney more deserving they beat Colgate? It doesn't matter how much you win by - that has never made a difference they do not look at scores they look at records

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Here's my biggest beef regarding the MVFC predictions I've seen. People have ISU-R as a lock. However, if they lose to NDSU, they are only 5-3 in conference. If ISU-B and SDSU win, they will both by 6-2 relegating ISU-R to 4th place in the conference. Its ludicrous that the 4th place team will get in and SDSU may be on the outside looking in with a better conference record and the same overall record. ISU-R lost at home to both SIU (shut out) and Missouri State. Jacks beat both, SIU being on the road. SIU and SDSU both won at ISU-B. ISU-R does have an FBS win, but Eastern Michigan is garbage. Their only win is over Army, who is also terrible.

Now, if ISU-R beats NDSU, I have no beef, so this is all admittedly premature anyhow.

Couldn't have said it better myself. SDSU also just went on the road and lost to NDSU by 3. If NDSU rolls Illinois State at their place, this even further proves your point.

The fact of the matter is, SDSU does not have 8 D1's on their resume RIGHT NOW, so nobody can have them on their "for sure in" list just yet. If we had 8, everyone would have us as a LOCK. We just need to take care of business this weekend.

[Professor Chaos]

They won the SOCON championship... they are in... for sure...
It's very possible the MVFC ends up with a 4 team tie at 6-2 at the top of the conference. Does that mean all 4 teams are in.... for sure?

Wofford can't rely solely on a SOCON (co-)championship to get them in. If the "Committee's Worst Nightmare" occurs as discussed in the other thread Wofford will be very much on the playoff bubble.


Here's my biggest beef regarding the MVFC predictions I've seen. People have ISU-R as a lock. However, if they lose to NDSU, they are only 5-3 in conference. If ISU-B and SDSU win, they will both by 6-2 relegating ISU-R to 4th place in the conference. Its ludicrous that the 4th place team will get in and SDSU may be on the outside looking in with a better conference record and the same overall record. ISU-R lost at home to both SIU (shut out) and Missouri State. Jacks beat both, SIU being on the road. SIU and SDSU both won at ISU-B. ISU-R does have an FBS win, but Eastern Michigan is garbage. Their only win is over Army, who is also terrible.

Now, if ISU-R beats NDSU, I have no beef, so this is all admittedly premature anyhow.
Illinois St has two OOC wins (Eastern Michigan and Eastern Illinois) that are better than any OOC wins by SDSU or Indiana St. They are in even if they lose to NDSU and finish 5-3 in conference.


For Sam you have to look for top 25 wins and losses, that is what the committee does - they are 0-1 - no other teams are even in consideration from their conference - they played 2 FBS schools, maybe you shouldn't have done that - they played a DII school another bad decision - so how do put them in over Wofford or better yet lets say 5 CAA teams finish at 8-3 with 8 DI wins ? or add in a possible 4 from the MVC - is Stoney more deserving they beat Colgate? It doesn't matter how much you win by - that has never made a difference they do not look at scores they look at records
So if they played Prarie View A&M instead of Texas A&M you'd say they're in no problem? There's still no top 25 wins there. Sam Houston is the anti-Lehigh. They scheduled two tough FBS games OOC and they've been wiping the fields with opponents as of late. I don't think there's any question that they've proven they're one of the 10 best teams out there who won't receive an autobid.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

It's very possible the MVFC ends up with a 4 team tie at 6-2 at the top of the conference. Does that mean all 4 teams are in.... for sure?

Wofford can't rely solely on a SOCON (co-)championship to get them in. If the "Committee's Worst Nightmare" occurs as discussed in the other thread Wofford will be very much on the playoff bubble.

Funny thing is, a 4-way tie for the MVFC a very real possibility. SDSU is favored by 20 over USD at home, so a Jacks win is likely. Indiana State is also favored over YSU, and although it won't be as easy of a win, odds are in favor of the Trees. So if Illinois State can just find a way to pull off the victory at home vs. the Bison, there is your 4-way tie, folks!

I guess all 4 MVFC teams are locks to get in, according to many fans from the SoCon.

[robsnotes4u]

Couldn't have said it better myself. SDSU also just went on the road and lost to NDSU by 3. If NDSU rolls Illinois State at their place, this even further proves your point.

The fact of the matter is, SDSU does not have 8 D1's on their resume RIGHT NOW, so nobody can have them on their "for sure in" list just yet. If we had 8, everyone would have us as a LOCK. We just need to take care of business this weekend.

I hope you guys get in, you deserve it. I would like to see you play NDSU again, that was a great game.

[robsnotes4u]

Funny thing is, a 4-way tie for the MVFC a very real possibility. SDSU is favored by 20 over USD at home, so a Jacks win is likely. Indiana State is also favored over YSU, and although it won't be as easy of a win, odds are in favor of the Trees. So if Illinois State can just find a way to pull off the victory at home vs. the Bison, there is your 4-way tie, folks!

I guess all 4 MVFC teams are locks to get in, according to many fans from the SoCon.

What is usually the case with the Big Sky, is an issue with MVFC. Someone who should be in probably will not. Without a doubt the two toughest conferences to play in.

[frozennorth]

isu-b is likely out for the same reason wooford is

[KATS_21]

For Sam you have to look for top 25 wins and losses, that is what the committee does - they are 0-1 - no other teams are even in consideration from their conference - they played 2 FBS schools, maybe you shouldn't have done that - they played a DII school another bad decision - so how do put them in over Wofford or better yet lets say 5 CAA teams finish at 8-3 with 8 DI wins ? or add in a possible 4 from the MVC - is Stoney more deserving they beat Colgate? It doesn't matter how much you win by - that has never made a difference they do not look at scores they look at records

You are right, they are 0-1 against a UCA team that won the AQ. If Sam did not have the run that they did last year, then your argument would matter. The committee will put them in the field, they are 7-1 against fcs opponents, 0-2 against stiff FBS teams (Baylor and Texas A&M) and crushed a DII school. I get it, they should not have scheduled 2 fbs teams and a DII but they played the schedule that is front of them.

Ever since the UCA loss, Sam Houston has been in a season long playoff. A loss against any FCS team and they would have been out with no consideration.

[Sam_Kats]

Sam is in. Seed? Probably not.

Move along.

[Bear84]

For Sam you have to look for top 25 wins and losses, that is what the committee does - they are 0-1 - no other teams are even in consideration from their conference - they played 2 FBS schools, maybe you shouldn't have done that - they played a DII school another bad decision - so how do put them in over Wofford or better yet lets say 5 CAA teams finish at 8-3 with 8 DI wins ? or add in a possible 4 from the MVC - is Stoney more deserving they beat Colgate? It doesn't matter how much you win by - that has never made a difference they do not look at scores they look at records

McNeese State was ranked when they played SHSU. I recall that SHSU won that game rather easily.

[TheRevSFA]

Sam's in.

I think they go on the road though...but at that point it's all about the bidding

[ITmonarch10]

McNeese State was ranked when they played SHSU. I recall that SHSU won that game rather easily.
Why does that matter? When selecting teams for the field, they look at your whole schedule. I don't think anyone cares if you beat UNI, Montana, Delaware, YSU, or El Cid when they were ranked because they aren't even close to a playoff spot. Sam Houston will get in on rep from last year. It funny though because I don't think a team with the same resume from a power conference would get in without a single Div 1 OOC victory.

[Professor Chaos]

Why does that matter? When selecting teams for the field, they look at your whole schedule. I don't think anyone cares if you beat UNI, Montana, Delaware, YSU, or El Cid when they were ranked because they aren't even close to a playoff spot. Sam Houston will get in on rep from last year. It funny though because I don't think a team with the same resume from a power conference would get in without a single Div 1 OOC victory.
UNI had basically the same schedule this year. If they would've gone 7-1 in the MVFC to finish 7-3 overall (plus a D2 win) they would've been in easily. The fact that SHSU went 7-1 in a weaker conference actually hurts them just as much as their poor OOC resume.

[Bear84]

Why does that matter? When selecting teams for the field, they look at your whole schedule. I don't think anyone cares if you beat UNI, Montana, Delaware, YSU, or El Cid when they were ranked because they aren't even close to a playoff spot. Sam Houston will get in on rep from last year. It funny though because I don't think a team with the same resume from a power conference would get in without a single Div 1 OOC victory.

Just pointing out that they have beaten a top 25 team. I totally agree that it does not matter one bit.

[Bearkat-Backer]

It funny though because I don't think a team with the same resume from a power conference would get in without a single Div 1 OOC victory.

Texas Southern is Div 1

[TheRevSFA]

Texas Southern is Div 1

Prove it!

[LouiseBFree]

Eastern Illinois will NOT, repeat, will NOT beat Central Arkansas...



If Wofford is out then so is Sam Houston State - they will be 7-1 and did not play in a great conference and lost to C Arkansas - if E Illinois beats UCA then trouble for sure as the strength of the Southland will tumble and no doubt the OVC gets a second bid - Sam has no top 25 wins to ther credit...I still can't understand why they are ranked so high??? I believe Wofford gets in before they do

[Bearkat-Backer]

Prove it!

Ha! I didn't say they were any good just that they are technically a Div 1 team

[Sammy94]

So is PV and I'm sure NDSU will let you know about that one.

[THE HERD]

Other than arbitrary opinion, what is it about the Southland that makes you think it's such a bad conference? Could it be that one of its fourth place teams beat a currently 6-3 FBS team? (MTSU) Could it be that its other fourth place team took Montana State to the wire in Bozeman? Also, what is it about Sam Houston that is so weak? How many teams has Wofford played where they handed them their worst FCS defeat of the season by more than ten points? 0. Same question for Sam Houston? 4 and that's their last 4 games as well. They have handed their last four opponents a defeat by an average of 33 points per game more than that their previous worst defeat was. You can make all the arbitrary opinions you want about the Southland or SHSU, but when you actually look deeper into them, they're much stronger than you may believe.

I definitely agree with this.....SHSU has a salty D and multiple weapons on Offense! I saw em first hand in Frisco and they were the only D all year that was comparable to NDSU's. Neither offense did much until our fake punt. The Kats hardly lost anyone to graduation as well, so they are pretty much the same team as last year.

[Sam_Kats]

Would be an awesome rematch.