Playoff Prediction Cleaned Up - 6 Days and counting - Looking closer at records

[Go Apps]

Current overall and conference records are in parentheses.. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs,. D11 wins are excluded as are FBS losses - that is reflected in the record to your right important in determination of at large and seeding.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Colgate CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: Mont State Southland: C. Arkansas
Southern: ASU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune OVC: Eastern Illinois
Big South: Coastal Carolina NEC: Wagner

Auto Qualifiers

Bethune Cookman (8-2, 6-0 MEAC) Record 8-1

Central Arkansas (8-2, 6-1 Southland) Record 7-1

Eastern Illinois (7-3, 6-1 OVC) Record 7-2

Colgate (7-3, 5-0 Patriot) Record 7-3


At Large Qualifiers (IN)

-Sam Houston State (8-2, 6-1 Southland) Record 7-1

-North Dakota State (9-1, 5-1 MVC) Record 9-1

-Montana State (9-1, 6-1 Big Sky) Record 8-1

-Ga Southern (8-2, 6-2 Southern) Record 8-2

-Old Dominion (9-1, 6-1 CAA) Record 9-1

-Appalachian State (8-3, 6-2 Southern) Record 8-2

-Wagner (7-3, 6-1 Northeast) Record 7-2


Still Alive
-Illinois State (8-2, 6-2 MVC) Record 8-2

-Coastal Carolina (6-4, 4-1 Big South) Record 6-3

-Eastern Washington (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky) Record 8-1

-New Hampshire (8-2, 6-1 CAA) – Record 8-1

-Cal Poly (8-2, 6-2 Big Sky) Record 8-2

-Tennessee State (8-2, 4-2 OVC) Record 8-2

- South Dakota State (7-3, 5-2 MVC) Record 7-2

-Richmond (7-3, 5-2 CAA) Record 7-2

-Lehigh (9-1, 3-1 Patriot) Record 9-1


JUST MISSNG FOR NOW

-Eastern Kentucky (8-3, 6-2 OVC) Record 8-2

-Wofford (8-2, 6-2 Southern) Record 7-2

-Northern Arizona (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky) Record 7-1

-Stoney Brook (9-2, 5-1 Big South) Record 8-1

-Indiana State (7-3, 5-2 MVC) Record 6-2

-UT Martin (7-3, 5-1 OVC) Record 7-2

-Villanova (7-3, 5-2 CAA) Record 7-2

-James Madison (7-3, 5-2 CAA) Record 7-2

-Albany (8-2, 6-1 Northeast) Record 8-2

-Samford (7-3, 5-3 Southern) Record 6-3

-Liberty (5-5, 4-1 Big South) Record 5-4

-Towson (6-4, 5-2 CAA) Record 6-2


Below are my projections for the I-AA playoff field.

At-large: Lehigh, Illinois State, Sam Houston State, Richmond, ODU, Tenn State, E. Washington, South Dakota State, GSU

Seeds: ASU, Mont St, NDSU, ODU, E Washington
Last In: Richmond, Lehigh
Last Out: Wofford, Stoney Brook, EKU, Indiana State


Bracket I:
Lehigh @ Richmond winner at No. 1 NDSU
Illinois State @ E. Illinois

Coastal Carolina @ Bethune winner at No. 4 ASU
N Hampshire @ No. 5 E Washington

Bracket II:
Wagner @ Colgate winner at No. 3 ODU
C Arkansas @ GSU

Tenn State @ South Dakota State winner at No. 2 Mont State
Cal Poly @ Sam Houston State

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Why should App. get seeded over E. Washington or GSU? If you want to argue by virtue of the head-to-head then why not seed Wofford?

[NoDak 4 Ever]

Why should App. get seeded over E. Washington or GSU?

He has EWU as a seed. App has the win over GSU.

[Go Apps]

Why should App. get seeded over E. Washington or GSU?

Just thinking the committee will possibly give a seed to someone from the Socon so over EWashington...

as for GSU both lost to Citadel both have a loss to an FBS - you and Sam Houston State will fall behind us after this weekend in the polls - we beat you head to head - out of conference we beat Coastal Carolina likely Big South Champion and Montana - you beat Howard and Jacksomville - again ASU had better opponents

Does that help?

[ITmonarch10]

He has EWU as a seed. App has the win over GSU.

I agree you can't seed GSU over App especially since App is most likely going to be the SoCon auto-bid champion.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Just thinking the committee will possibly give a seed to someone from the Socon so over EWashington...

as for GSU both lost to Citadel both have a loss to an FBS - you and Sam Houston State will fall behind us after this weekend in the polls - we beat you head to head - out of conference we beat Coastal Carolina likely Big South Champion and Montana - you beat Howard and Jacksomville - again ASU had better opponents

Does that help?

We will not drop after losing to UGA. You haven't followed the FCS for very long if you think we will drop after losing to them. Even if we lose by 40 (won't happen) we won't drop. You won't go up after a bye unless someone above you loses an FCS game.
Also, you have two double-digit losses at home.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

We will not drop after losing to UGA. You haven't followed the FCS for very long if you think we will drop after losing to them. Even if we lose by 40 (won't happen) we won't drop. You won't go up after a bye unless someone above you loses an FCS game.
Also, you have two double-digit losses at home.

But they have the head to head win over GSU. There is no getting away from that.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

But they have the head to head win over GSU. There is no getting away from that.

So what? Wofford is in the tiebreaker, has the win over ASU in Boone, and has the same record.

[Go Apps]

We will not drop after losing to UGA. You haven't followed the FCS for very long if you think we will drop after losing to them. Even if we lose by 40 (won't happen) we won't drop. You won't go up after a bye unless someone above you loses an FCS game.
Also, you have two double-digit losses at home.

You would be wrong on the drop - you and Sam will fall behind N Hampshire if they win as well and yes every loss matters regardless of when it hits

[Go Apps]

So what? Wofford is in the tiebreaker, has the win over ASU in Boone, and has the same record.

Wofford is not in the tiebreaker - ASU/GSU down to those two and really doesn't matter who gets it

[blueballs]

I agree you can't seed GSU over App especially since App is most likely going to be the SoCon auto-bid champion.

I was with you up until that point.... IMO Citadel is favored over Furman and if Citadel wins GSU gets the autobid.

[Go Apps]

I was with you up until that point.... IMO Citadel is favored over Furman and if Citadel wins GSU gets the autobid.

Nope does not think it matters who wins and I like Furman over Citadel

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

you guys are probably going to drop after losing to Georgia, the question is, how many spots, if you are somewhat competive against Georgia, I could see you only losing one or two spots

[Eaglesrus]

Nope does not think it matters who wins and I like Furman over Citadel

So, you just don't believe Lehigh Football Nation when he said:

"The league office put it to me simply.

"If Citadel beats Furman, the AQ goes to Georgia Southern," they said. "If Furman beats The Citadel, the AQ goes to Appalachian State."

[Eaglesrus]

you guys are probably going to drop after losing to Georgia, the question is, how many spots, if you are somewhat competive against Georgia, I could see you only losing one or two spots

Sincere question, I'm curious as to how you define competitive?

[wapiti]

Why do you have Lehigh making the playoffs?
I can see why you have them in the dicussion for an at-large, but to actually get in??????
Any middle of the pack team from the MVFC, CAA, BSC, Southern, or Southland conference would be undefeated with Lehigh's schedule, with no close wins.

[GlassOnion]

Sincere question, I'm curious as to how you define competitive?

If GSU isnt already blown out by the half, they'll have a shot at being stable in the polls. Down 2-3 TDs at the half and GSU falls 1 or 2. App fell after getting pounded by Florida late in the season, the only time I dont think we dropped was when we fell to LSU late in the season, 24-0, but down only 14 going into the 4th quarter. That was an 11-2 SEC team that year.

[THE HERD]

Just curious.......anybody know what general guide lines the committee follows(if any) to determine the games where the winner plays the number1 or 2 seed. For example they have the winner of Colgate and Wagner going to Mont. St and the winner of Ill.St and whoever coming to Fargo, don't they like to make sure conference foes don't meet up right away? Or is that just the Turkey Day weekend games where they won't pair conference mates?

[danefan]

Just curious.......anybody know what general guide lines the committee follows(if any) to determine the games where the winner plays the number1 or 2 seed. For example they have the winner of Colgate and Wagner going to Mont. St and the winner of Ill.St and whoever coming to Fargo, don't they like to make sure conference foes don't meet up right away? Or is that just the Turkey Day weekend games where they won't pair conference mates?

This is from the 2010 handbook. The 2012 handbook is nowhere to be found online yet.




All pairings will be made by the Division I football championship committee.

Thefollowing principles are applied when pairing teams:

1. Teams deemed by the committee to be the 12 best teams selected to the championshipshall receive a first-round bye. The remaining eight teams shall play first-round gamesand will be paired according to geographic proximity.

2. The teams awarded the top five seeds are placed in the appropriate positions in thebracket (Nos. 1 and 4 in the upper half, and Nos. 2 and 3 in the lower half, and No. 5in the upper half of the bracket adjacent to the No. 4 seed bracket such that they wouldbe quarterfinal round opponents should they advance);

3. The committee shall determine the seven remaining teams that merit a first-roundbye;

4. The No. 5 seed and the seven unseeded teams receiving a first-round bye shall bepaired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;

5. The remaining eight teams will play first-round games and will be paired according togeographic proximity and placed in the bracket according to geographic proximity ofthe top four seeds previously placed in the bracket;

6. The NCAA mileage threshold for mandatory team travel via ground is 400 miles;

7. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games or for second

roundgames when both teams are playing their first games of the championship;

8. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments tothe bracket (e.g., a top-four seed may play a conference opponent that advanced outof the first round.


#7 answers your last question I believe.

[danefan]

Each school has got to bid on the home games, basically guarantee the NCAA money. The NCAA wants as much gate money as possible, so if youre a poorly attended private school going up against a public school, you havent got a great shot of playing at home without a great record.

Attendance doesn't necessarily drive bids. See EKU outbidding JMU last year with abuot 1/10th of the attendance. Its all about the $$$ guarantee.

A team from the PL rolling in dough could conceivably outbid everyone if they wanted to.

[Eaglesrus]

If GSU isnt already blown out by the half, they'll have a shot at being stable in the polls. Down 2-3 TDs at the half and GSU falls 1 or 2. App fell after getting pounded by Florida late in the season, the only time I dont think we dropped was when we fell to LSU late in the season, 24-0, but down only 14 going into the 4th quarter. That was an 11-2 SEC team that year.

Thanks, if that proves to be an accurate picture I like our chances of only dropping 1 or 2 spots.

[THE HERD]

The proximity thing definitely didn't come into play last year for NDSU, when we started with JMU, then Lehigh and GSU. That was about as far from regional as ya get, although I really liked it. I like seeing different teams that we haven't played before come into the FargoDome. I don't wanna see another MVFC team, unless its in Frisco.

[WileECoyote06]

Good bracket. I'm not sure how the EIU/UCA game will affect their placement though. I think one or the other will end up in the first round.

[MTfan4life]

The proximity thing definitely didn't come into play last year for NDSU, when we started with JMU, then Lehigh and GSU. That was about as far from regional as ya get, although I really liked it. I like seeing different teams that we haven't played before come into the FargoDome. I don't wanna see another MVFC team, unless its in Frisco.

The thing about that is the top half of the bracket was seeded with two teams from the "West." So when deciding to send JMU/EKU/Towson/Lehigh to one of the seeds, NDSU was actually closer than Sam Houston State and Montana. Regionalization wasn't thrown out the window. The same thing could happen again this year with multiple "western" seeds.

[BEAR]

Saw in a local news report that Montana put up a $200,000 bid to host UCA last year..well not necesarily UCA, but to host. Plus the fact they have a great stadium and sell out crowds. But 200k...tough to beat that bid especially for most FCS schools...like ones fresh out of division II. xlolx

[GlassOnion]

Attendance doesn't necessarily drive bids. See EKU outbidding JMU last year with abuot 1/10th of the attendance. Its all about the $$$ guarantee.

A team from the PL rolling in dough could conceivably outbid everyone if they wanted to.

I read his post wrong, but in any case, the usual advantage goes to the higher attended school, with alot of attendance money. Some private school here and there will pony up for the "prestige" of having a home playoff, but it is a 100s of thousands of dollar gamble really. Will the attention garnered be worth what you spend, even if the FB team loses?

[THE HERD]

Another question......If the Redbirds happen to take us down this weekend and we finish 9-2 and Co-Champs of MVFC do you think we still get a seed? I think we would, but it would probably be the 4th or 5th seed. I suppose there might be the outside chance of getting the 3, depending on what other teams do this last weekend, but I would highly doubt it. What say you?

[THE HERD]

The thing about that is the top half of the bracket was seeded with two teams from the "West." So when deciding to send JMU/EKU/Towson/Lehigh to one of the seeds, NDSU was actually closer than Sam Houston State and Montana. Regionalization wasn't thrown out the window. The same thing could happen again this year with multiple "western" seeds.

Good Point.

[Walkon79]

Another question......If the Redbirds happen to take us down this weekend and we finish 9-2 and Co-Champs of MVFC do you think we still get a seed? I think we would, but it would probably be the 4th or 5th seed. I suppose there might be the outside chance of getting the 3, depending on what other teams do this last weekend, but I would highly doubt it. What say you?

I think a 9-2 Bison team would still get a seed, just not #1 or #2.

[bullitt_60]

I honestly don't think the SoCon will get a seed.

[Appattk]

As much as I love my Apps... there's no way we get a seed unless some crazy things happen this weekend.

#1 GSU is a stronger team EVEN if App beat them... (Missed field goals & crazy calls won the game that day)
#2 There are other teams out there with better resumes & Poll Positions: i.e. GSU, SHSU, UNH...

[Go Apps]

Why do you have Lehigh making the playoffs?
I can see why you have them in the dicussion for an at-large, but to actually get in??????
Any middle of the pack team from the MVFC, CAA, BSC, Southern, or Southland conference would be undefeated with Lehigh's schedule, with no close wins.

agree with you but there are always surprises that is why - I may change on Saturday and I feel like Wofford will get in but so much can change on Saturday - Lehigh may be the only 10 win against DII after Saturday that is hard to ignore

Hey I cannot get behind a Stoney inclusion - Army is behind in the Sargins to 42 DII schools this cannot be considered a quality win and 2 from the big south come on!

[Go Apps]

As much as I love my Apps... there's no way we get a seed unless some crazy things happen this weekend.

#1 GSU is a stronger team EVEN if App beat them... (Missed field goals & crazy calls won the game that day)
#2 There are other teams out there with better resumes & Poll Positions: i.e. GSU, SHSU, UNH...

Hey I agree GSU is a better team - but Sam Houston does not have the quality wins and will finish 7-1 in a weak conference they should not get a seed there is no reason - where is the resume

GSU will drop this weekend at Georgia both of these teams will fall behind ASU in the polls that pushes us to #6 -

NDSU is a lock for a seed
Montana St could lose at Montana
N Hampshire could lose vs Towson
ODU could lose vs JMU
E Washington could lose vs Port St

So I am thinking one of the CAA teams lose and the others win - NDSU 1 - Mont State - 2 ODU - 3 ASU - 4 and EWashington is 5

Think that they give the Socon a seed after a strong year and give the 5th spot to EWU

That is my thinking but who knows

[Go Apps]

As much as I love my Apps... there's no way we get a seed unless some crazy things happen this weekend.

#1 GSU is a stronger team EVEN if App beat them... (Missed field goals & crazy calls won the game that day)
#2 There are other teams out there with better resumes & Poll Positions: i.e. GSU, SHSU, UNH...

Nobody remembers how games are won or lost only Cobb will know about ASU oh yeah he is the chair this year!

[GSU Eagle]

I think App and Ga. Southern host games in round 2 but unless a good many upsets occur Saturday I don't see either as a seed unless possibly a #5.

[Go Apps]

I think App and Ga. Southern host games in round 2 but unless a good many upsets occur Saturday I don't see either as a seed unless possibly a #5.

dont forget $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[URMite]

Attendance doesn't necessarily drive bids. See EKU outbidding JMU last year with abuot 1/10th of the attendance. Its all about the $$$ guarantee.

A team from the PL rolling in dough could conceivably outbid everyone if they wanted to.

You don't have to be in the PL to have a large endowment. xnodx

I believe only 3 Non-Ivy FCS over 1 Billion in 2011.
Lehigh 1.077
Georgetown 1.160
Richmond 1.877

Doesn't mean a thing, but wanted to take the chance to get that out there. xthumbsupx

[TheValleyRaider]

Attendance doesn't necessarily drive bids. See EKU outbidding JMU last year with abuot 1/10th of the attendance. Its all about the $$$ guarantee.

A team from the PL rolling in dough could conceivably outbid everyone if they wanted to.

I'm pretty sure that's what Lehigh has done in the past. Well, not just outbid people because of vast financial reserves, but certainly more than some of their opponents. Plenty of schools, like JMU, have a history of bidding low on games, and usually only get home games as seeds (when all you need is the minimum)

If this bracket were to come to pass, I could see Colgate getting that home game against Wagner, as I could see the Raiders having a larger bid (especially if there's residual damage from the storms), but we generally don't like to bid. We didn't even bid to host the semifinal game in 2003, and as a seed all we needed was the minimum. If Colgate gets matched up with just about anyone else (and I've seen predictions that put us against 6 or 7 other schools), then it's likely we start rolling out the buses

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Hey I agree GSU is a better team - but Sam Houston does not have the quality wins and will finish 7-1 in a weak conference they should not get a seed there is no reason - where is the resume

GSU will drop this weekend at Georgia both of these teams will fall behind ASU in the polls that pushes us to #6 -

NDSU is a lock for a seed
Montana St could lose at Montana
N Hampshire could lose vs Towson
ODU could lose vs JMU
E Washington could lose vs Port St

So I am thinking one of the CAA teams lose and the others win - NDSU 1 - Mont State - 2 ODU - 3 ASU - 4 and EWashington is 5

Think that they give the Socon a seed after a strong year and give the 5th spot to EWU

That is my thinking but who knows

What makes you think GSU will drop after losing to UGA? It's not East Carolina you are talking about, it's a team in the top 5 in the BCS standings.

If you guys didn't drop for losing to ECU why would we drop for losing to UGA ?

[Engineer86]

What makes you think GSU will drop after losing to UGA? It's not East Carolina you are talking about, it's a team in the top 5 in the BCS standings.

If you guys didn't drop for losing to ECU why would we drop for losing to UGA ?

As long as you post more rushing yards against Geogia than any other opponent, I would think you would move up xlolx

If you do drop I think it is due to the timing of the game versus the ECU game and with many teams in the fight, people looking to move teams around. Not saying it is right. If it is reasonably close you should hold your spot

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

I thought we did drop against ECU, and, as stated before, we got crushed by Florida 2 years ago on the last regular season game and dropped in the polls. I think people are right when they make a case that, GS performance this weekend will have an influence on whether they drop or not, its not about winning, its about playing a respectable game and keeping it somewhat close. Question for GS fans, do you risk injury to key players, in a game you are unlikely to win, just to hold your position in the polls, to maybe secure a second round home game? Or, if the game gets quickly out of hand, do you pull your starters, and protect them for the playoffs?

[Eaglesrus]

I thought we did drop against ECU, and, as stated before, we got crushed by Florida 2 years ago on the last regular season game and dropped in the polls. I think people are right when they make a case that, GS performance this weekend will have an influence on whether they drop or not, its not about winning, its about playing a respectable game and keeping it somewhat close. Question for GS fans, do you risk injury to key players, in a game you are unlikely to win, just to hold your position in the polls, to maybe secure a second round home game? Or, if the game gets quickly out of hand, do you pull your starters, and protect them for the playoffs?

My impression is that Coach Monken would not even thinking along those lines and that if guys are healthy enough to play, they'll play. When our guys come on the field these days someone leads them carrying a black flag, which is supposed to signify a philosophy of no quarter, no surrender. I think that Monken has given a lot of indication that he is committed to that idea.

[bluehenbillk]

Does a 8-3 SoCon team get a seed this year??

[Eaglesrus]

Does a 8-3 SoCon team get a seed this year??

I'm in the camp that thinks not.

[Go Apps]

I'm in the camp that thinks not.

Just saying that that GSU/Sam Houston and one other team loses in front of them I say yes - no way a Sam Houston gets one at 7-1 from an easier conference

[eaglewraith]

Nobody remembers how games are won or lost only Cobb will know about ASU oh yeah he is the chair this year!

Which means he has to leave the room when App State is discussed.

[Go Apps]

Which means he has to leave the room when App State is discussed.

Which means they will not remember - and I think he only has to leave when they discuss whether or not they get in...

[Go Apps]

Which means he has to leave the room when App State is discussed.

can anyone find out the committee members this year??? Man that would be very interesting

[eaglewraith]

Which means they will not remember - and I think he only has to leave when they discuss whether or not they get in...

Don't think he can be involved in any conversation that relates to App and whether or not they are seeded.

[katstrapper]

Just saying that that GSU/Sam Houston and one other team loses in front of them I say yes - no way a Sam Houston gets one at 7-1 from an easier conference

Be ready to be upset when Sam Houston gets a #4 or #5 seed.

[KATS_21]

Be ready to be upset when Sam Houston gets a #4 or #5 seed.

If NDSU, MSU, or EWU lose than there is a good chance of that happening

[katstrapper]

If NDSU, MSU, or EWU lose than there is a good chance of that happening


Montana has a VERY good chance of ruining Montana St playoff seeding.... Same thing happened last year.

[FargoBison]

I doubt SHSU would be seeded over NDSU, even if NDSU loses. MSU would be possible though since they have a DII game and no FBS games.

[Go Apps]

Be ready to be upset when Sam Houston gets a #4 or #5 seed.

WHO have you played that warrants a seed??? C Arkansas - yes you lost that game - well that doesn't help you played in a down conference ok that doesnt help - oh you beat a DII team ok that doesnt help - nope cant find an argument anywhere - no top 25 teams today did you beat 0-1 against the group..

By the way if E. Illinois wins over C Arkansas your stock will fall even further and OVC could steal your bid - and if the committee goes with 8 wins and above you are in a mess and they could do it - there will be plenty to chose from - Wofford has a better case than you do for sure...

[katstrapper]

WHO have you played that warrants a seed??? C Arkansas - yes you lost that game - well that doesn't help you played in a down conference ok that doesnt help - oh you beat a DII team ok that doesnt help - nope cant find an argument anywhere - no top 25 teams today did you beat 0-1 against the group..

By the way if E. Illinois wins over C Arkansas your stock will fall even further and OVC could steal your bid - and if the committee goes with 8 wins and above you are in a mess and they could do it - there will be plenty to chose from - Wofford has a better case than you do for sure...

Here we go again... I am not sayng that SHSU will get a seed. I think they will get a home game first round, but not a seed. However, it wouldnt surprise me to see them get #5 seed.

All I am going to say is what I said all last playoffs, teams better look out. Nobody thought SHSU would make it to NC game in Frisco last year because of ... schedule, weak conference, blah, blah, blah......

[GlassOnion]

What makes you think GSU will drop after losing to UGA? It's not East Carolina you are talking about, it's a team in the top 5 in the BCS standings.

If you guys didn't drop for losing to ECU why would we drop for losing to UGA ?

WRONG

App State dropped from #5 to #8 after the loss to ECU.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Sam will not get a seed, but I do believe they'll avoid playing in the first round and will host.

[KATS_21]

Being a #5 seed really means nothing. Regardless of what happens this weekend, I think Sam will host 1 game at home and be on the road the rest of the playoffs.

Each year, the successful teams from the previous year get help in the polls and rankings by the committee. If Sam played the same schedule last year and had the same record of this year, they would be in the playoffs playing the first weekend.

[FargoBison]

Being a #5 seed means nothing? Not sure EWU would agree with that.....

[cpacmel]

can anyone find out the committee members this year??? Man that would be very interesting



2012 Selection Committee
Charles Cobb, Chair
Director of Athletics
Appalachian State University

Jeff Barber
Director of Athletics
Liberty University

Jeff Bourne
Director of Athletics
James Madison University

Charlene M. Johnson
Director of Athletics
South Carolina State University

Craig Coleman
Director of Athletics
Robert Morris University

Robert Hill
Director of Athletics
Stephen F. Austin State University

Mark Wilson
Director of Athletics
Tennessee Tech

Frank McLaughlin
Associate Vice President
Fordham University

Torre Chisholm
Director of Athletics
Portland State University

Ron Strollo
Director of Athletics
Youngstown State University

Tim Wabler
Director of Athletics
University of Dayton

[asucrutch23]

Being a #5 seed means nothing? Not sure EWU would agree with that.....

Exactly. The 4 and 1 seeds lost so EWU hosted all the way to the championship.

However, for a school that is doubtful to be outbid (recent history says App State is an example), there isn't much difference between the 5 seed and the "6-12" teams except for more than likely a slightly easier 2nd game (4 seed vs 3, 2, or 1).

[LeeshaJo]

Ok, in trying to put together what my bracket would be... THIS IS FREAKING IMPOSSIBLE. How do you pull out the homerism/conference bias etc... when those are the teams you are most familiar with. Then there are the teams you know next to nothing about. The teams that have 'History' But are having a rather down year for them, but because they have the name are given more credit for a good season. What about teams who have had a great season in a percieved weak conference, do you reward them for winning their games, even though you believe there are better teams out there that would win nine out of ten games? What about Teams who have lost head-to-heads but then beaten teams the other team has lost to. Then if you go to use the polls, there is still a ton of bias in those, how do you decide which has the most merit. Anyone who predicts this bracket right needs to go to Vegas and put down some real money, because I am clueless. You start comparing resumes and it just gets muddier.

Color me confused xchinscratchx

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

ya its impossible to correctly predict....but its a hell of alot fun trying!!!!

[Go...gate]

Never thought of Wagner at Colgate. Might have to go to Hamilton to see that one.

[Go Apps]

Hopefully I helped you some I showed the records out to the right that reflect the actual current wins and losses as it will be viewed by the committee...

You have to go from there - then you can add in 1 xtra from the Socon/CAA/Big Sky/MVC you likely can add 2 more from CAA/MVC/Big Sky - that is 7 at large - then the rest is up to you 3 spots left to give

[Go Apps]

Never thought of Wagner at Colgate. Might have to go to Hamilton to see that one.

I really like my bracket the only two changes I might make is put Wofford in place of Lehigh and NAU in place of Cal Poly

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Noticed most people have EIU in their projected playoff fields. If they lose at Central Arkansas this weekend, which is highly likely in my opinion, they would likely be on the outside looking in with only 7 D1 wins.

Am I missing something? I guess I'm just surprised to see so many brakets with EIU in them. Go Apps' bracket at the start of this thread even has them hosting a 2nd round game! I think they lose this weekend and don't even make the field.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

I really like my bracket the only two changes I might make is put Wofford in place of Lehigh and NAU in place of Cal Poly

I also think NAU knocks off Cal Poly in Flag this weekend, knocking Poly out completely.

[cpacmel]

Yes your missing the fact they won the auto bid from the OVC xthumbsupx

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Yes your missing the fact they won the auto bid from the OVC xthumbsupx

Ahhhhh, haha. Better just leave them in my bracket then, huh? Thanks bro!

[MTfan4life]

One thing to remember with this all is that even when the computers and/or polls don't agree, the committee almost always gives love to the OVC. Examples of recent memory:

2006: Eastern Illinois got in while Portland State sat at home with an FBS win and Wofford was also left out. Northern Iowa also just missed the at-large boat that season. Both AQ TN Martin and Eastern Illinois lost in the first round.
2007: The poor playoff results from a season ago didn't skew the committee's mind as they again sent in Eastern Illinois as an at-large. This time around, Villanova, Hofstra, and Liberty were at the top of those left out. Both AQ Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Illinois lost by double digits in the first round.
2008 and 2009 only one got in, which was good for the OVC considering both of them lost by a combined 69 points.
2010: Two teams selected to have a bye in the first round and start in the second. Both lost their first game.
2011: Even though the fate of the OVC in the playoffs had looked pretty gruesome the previous five years, EKU still got in as likely the last at-large chosen. Both AQ TTU and EKU lost in the first round.

So when looking at your bracket projection, make sure and give Tennessee State/Tennessee Martin/Eastern Kentucky extra looks, because I'd actually be surprised if the OVC didn't get two teams and not based on merit, but simply based on the committee's loyal tradition to the conference.

[GATA]

One thing to remember with this all is that even when the computers and/or polls don't agree, the committee almost always gives love to the OVC. Examples of recent memory:

2006: Eastern Illinois got in while Portland State sat at home with an FBS win and Wofford was also left out. Northern Iowa also just missed the at-large boat that season. Both AQ TN Martin and Eastern Illinois lost in the first round.
2007: The poor playoff results from a season ago didn't skew the committee's mind as they again sent in Eastern Illinois as an at-large. This time around, Villanova, Hofstra, and Liberty were at the top of those left out. Both AQ Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Illinois lost by double digits in the first round.
2008 and 2009 only one got in, which was good for the OVC considering both of them lost by a combined 69 points.
2010: Two teams selected to have a bye in the first round and start in the second. Both lost their first game.
2011: Even though the fate of the OVC in the playoffs had looked pretty gruesome the previous five years, EKU still got in as likely the last at-large chosen. Both AQ TTU and EKU lost in the first round.

So when looking at your bracket projection, make sure and give Tennessee State/Tennessee Martin/Eastern Kentucky extra looks, because I'd actually be surprised if the OVC didn't get two teams and not based on merit, but simply based on the committee's loyal tradition to the conference.

This guy did his research.

I'm thinking Eastern Illinois with the AQ and Tenn State gets in with an at-large bid after a win over UT-Martin.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

This guy did his research.

I'm thinking Eastern Illinois with the AQ and Tenn State gets in with an at-large bid after a win over UT-Martin.

I think UT-Martin wins the game at home, knocking TN State off and falling just short of the playof field themselves. OVC only gets one in, and MTfan4life rides off into the sunset shaking his head...

[EKU Toss Sweep]

I think UT-Martin wins the game at home, knocking TN State off and falling just short of the playof field themselves. OVC only gets one in, and MTfan4life rides off into the sunset shaking his head...

I agree up to the point of OVC only get's one in. I see UT Martin beating TN State. At that point UTM likely does come up just short of the playoffs being edged out by EKU based on the Colonels win on Martin's home field. Two from the OVC and AGS is blowing up with hate for the OVC again on Sunday morning. A little help outside the conference helps too. Saturday promises to be a great day of scoreboard watching all over FCS.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I love that JMU AD Jeff Bourne is on the Committee. There is going to be some fantastic trolling on the CAAZone Boards on Sunday afternoon.

[bostonspider]

Nice for the Spiders that we also have two of our A10 brethren on the board in the Dayton and Fordham AD's.

[james_lawfirm]

When our guys come on the field these days someone leads them carrying a black flag, which is supposed to signify a philosophy of no quarter, no surrender.

I hope you all beat Georgia. That would be too cool. If you do, GaSo will be the #1 seed, no question. However, I think you're going to be giving them all your quarters.

[URMite]

Ahhhhh, haha. Better just leave them in my bracket then, huh? Thanks bro!

I still like my idea AQ vs AQ loser loses their AQ. Like pink slips....hehe.

[CopperCat]

Montana has a VERY good chance of ruining Montana St playoff seeding.... Same thing happened last year.

It seems that all you SHSU fans just want to think this because you want a seed. UM is not the UM of past years, and MSU is on a roll. I still think it possible that Sam gets a #5 seed when MSU wins, and honestly they may still get that seed even if MS would happen to lose.

[asucrutch23]

I hope you all beat Georgia. That would be too cool. If you do, GaSo will be the #1 seed, no question. However, I think you're going to be giving them all your quarters.

Yeah but Georgia is going to be giving them a bunch of quarters too, 1.9 million of them to be exact! :D

http://blogs.ajc.com/uga-sports-blog/2012/09/13/money-game-uga-florida-atlantic-game-pays-off-for-both-sides/


Also, FCS opponents — such as Georgia Southern, which plays at UGA on Nov. 17 — command much smaller payouts than the likes of Florida Atlantic. Georgia Southern will get $475,000 for the game in Athens.)

[frozennorth]

Being a #5 seed really means nothing. Regardless of what happens this weekend, I think Sam will host 1 game at home and be on the road the rest of the playoffs.

Each year, the successful teams from the previous year get help in the polls and rankings by the committee. If Sam played the same schedule last year and had the same record of this year, they would be in the playoffs playing the first weekend.

i think gsu and asu are likely first round unseeded byes (along with shsu), both of which would outbid you. I also have Cal poly and SDSU with byes, who would be tossups for the bid against shsu. Combined with the 5 seed, I think your odds of hosting your first game are around 1 in 3.

[seantaylor]

Sammy Baker getting bent over at the bargaining table. You won't see Kleinline take these miniscule payouts anymore.

[eaglewraith]

Sammy Baker getting bent over at the bargaining table. You won't see Kleinline take these miniscule payouts anymore.

I'm not really sure how much more we can get as an FCS. This is a decent amount more than we've got in previous UGA games so it's not as bad as it could be. I just don't know how much more we can push for while we're on this level.

[jim121256]

I hope you all beat Georgia. That would be too cool. If you do, GaSo will be the #1 seed, no question. However, I think you're going to be giving them all your quarters.

I hope we beat them, too. However, I'm realistic enough to have an opinion of the likelihood of that actually happening. I'll settle for making them fight for every damn quarter they manage to take from us!