Playoffs 'Til I Die: Picking the FCS Playoff Bracket, Week 12

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/566-playoffs-til-i-die-picking-the-fcs-playoff-bracket-week-12

You will be shocked, and awed. I think.

[danefan]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/566-playoffs-til-i-die-picking-the-fcs-playoff-bracket-week-12

You will be shocked, and awed. I think.

Honest assesment Chuck.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

IMO, I don't think you should hold it against Wofford that they have a sub-DI on the schedule. Many teams have non-conference games that are basically automatic wins. What difference does it make blowing out Lincoln versus blowing out Savannah State or Prairie Vie A&M? Ditto with Indiana State

Also, I have a hard time seeing the SoCon cochamps being left out while Stony Brook gets in. If beating a really crappy Army team gains you extra consideration, then that's just weak.

Finally, I have a very hard time seeing GSU being seeded higher than EWU and Montana State. I think we have a strong case for the #5 seed, but #2? No way.

[asucrutch23]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/566-playoffs-til-i-die-picking-the-fcs-playoff-bracket-week-12

You will be shocked, and awed. I think.

For the 2nd straight week, you and I have the exact same 20 teams in the field. xthumbsupx

I'm not quite sure GSU has the resume for a 2 seed over EWU or ODU. You say GSU will be auditioning to even have a spot in the field but then give them the 2 seed? Was it for regionalization sake? If so, I guess I could see it happening. In that case I might flip ODU and GSU unless you are assuming ODU loses to JMU.

Other than that, I like this bracket as it's pretty similar to mine. Good work.

[LUHawker]

Chuck, you either think Lehigh losses to LC or you are trying to perpetuate the Craig Haley-conceived "Lehigh out despite 10 wins" hoax.

Shame on you. You know better. I chalk it up to no longer being a blogger but a journalist trying to drum up controversy and traffic. "Very disappointed gentlemen, very disappointed." - Hall Pass

[Go Apps]

How can you pick GSU over ASU for the seed when ASU won head to head?

[VUCats02]

How can you pick GSU over ASU for the seed when ASU won head to head?

The value that people give head to head wins is just astonishingly high.....It is very easy for a team to be seeded higher than another similar team, even if the other similar team won in a head to head matchup.

[klak]

How can you pick GSU over ASU for the seed when ASU won head to head?

The same way he can have ASU in and Wofford out when Wofford won the head to head.

[ITmonarch10]

How can you pick GSU over ASU for the seed when ASU won head to head?
And possibly the SoCon autobid as well.

[Go Apps]

The value that people give head to head wins is just astonishingly high.....It is very easy for a team to be seeded higher than another similar team, even if the other similar team won in a head to head matchup.

They both will have a loss to an FBS team and both lost to the Citadel - ASU had an out of conference win over Montana and likely Big South winner Coastal Carolina - GSU beat Howard and Jacksonville - so to settle this ASU beat #1 GSU on the road and had a better schedule so yes again I can't see how GSU will get a seed over ASU unless they beat Georgia

As for Wofford - DII win - discussion over

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

They both will have a loss to an FBS team and both lost to the Citadel - ASU had an out of conference win over Montana and likely Big South winner College of Charleston - GSU beat Howard and Jacksonville - so to settle this ASU beat #1 GSU on the road and had a better schedule so yes again I can't see how GSU will get a seed over ASU unless they beat Georgia

As for Wofford - DII win - discussion over

We were not ranked #1 that week.
We did better against 5 out of 7 conference opponents.
Using that logic Wofford should get seeded first because they beat you in Boone.

[biggie]

May want to correct that CofC flub.

[Go Apps]

We were not ranked #1 that week.
We did better against 5 out of 7 conference opponents.
Using that logic Wofford should get seeded first because they beat you in Boone.

Yes you were #1 in the Coaches poll - nice of you to keep tabs on the Eagles - nobody looks at the score so that doesn't matter - so the record is the same and no on Wofford who beat a DII team

[Go Apps]

May want to correct that CofC flub.
\\

Right meant Coastal Carolina fixed

[biggie]

We were not ranked #1 that week.
You were in one recognized poll, coaches I believe.

And in polls GSU is just ahead of App now, with Woff just behind. But if everything goes as expected there will be blowout loses by GSU and Woff this week. In years before a last week loss to an FBS team has hurt rankings. Like App to Florida on the last game of the year in '10.

[App1928]

Chuck, you either think Lehigh losses to LC or you are trying to perpetuate the Craig Haley-conceived "Lehigh out despite 10 wins" hoax.

Shame on you. You know better. I chalk it up to no longer being a blogger but a journalist trying to drum up controversy and traffic. "Very disappointed gentlemen, very disappointed." - Hall Pass

yeah lehigh out with 10 wins sounds about right...

[Engineer86]

yeah lehigh out with 10 wins sounds about right...

Troll alert!

[cpalum]

I think there is a small error in your Big Sky review. Cal Poly can get the auto bid. If Cal Poly wins and MSU and EWU lose, I'm pretty sure they get it but I don't think that will happen

[GreatAppSt]

How can you pick GSU over ASU for the seed when ASU won head to head?

Simple, because LFN has a long storied history of picking against, talking down about, and underanking App.xnodx

[Saint3333]

We were not ranked #1 that week.
We did better against 5 out of 7 conference opponents.
Using that logic Wofford should get seeded first because they beat you in Boone.

App has a stronger resume than GSU.

I would hate for this bracket to happen, only two SoCon schools when all three deserve it and the only two that get in play each other in the second round? Northern bias.

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

I cant see GS getting a higher seed than App, first, GS will lose this weekend, probably big, so they will drop behind App in the polls after this weekend, second, maybe even more important, Cobb will outbid GS for the extra home game. Wofford needs to be very competive this weekend against SC, with the weak oc schedule, they cant just show up this weekend and pickup a paycheck. Unforunately, SC defense is one of the best in the country, and their defensive line, might be the best in the SEC. Might be the end for the terriers.

[Saint3333]

8-3 in the SoCon with a win in Boone is a resume that should get in the playoffs.

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

I dont know, pulling for them, becouse I think they deserve to be there as much as anyone, but I think its going to be close.

[Reign of Terrier]

You guys are full of it. Wofford definitely gets in. We had a sub d1 win in all of our playoff appearances. This year, our resume is better than last year, albeit with the same overall record. Single digit losses and socon championships do that. Also defense and #7

[appfan2008]

Wofford is in... no way a socon champ at 8-3 with a win in boone gets left out...

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

young terrier, Im on your side, I believe they deserve to be in, but you guys have been screwed out of a bid before, and when you do get in, you always seem to get the worst bracket, traveling out west, against the toughest teams in the playoffs. Dont get me wrong, better you guys than App, and I dont lose any sleep over it, but based on the past, its reasonable to believe you guys should be atleast alitte concerned.

[bjtheflamesfan]

A lot of folks from the power conferences will be rooting for VMI this weekend (although Liberty has dominated the series since VMI came to the Big South, losing only two meetings since 2002)

[Engineer86]

A lot of folks from the power conferences will be rooting for VMI this weekend (although Liberty has dominated the series since VMI came to the Big South, losing only two meetings since 2002)

SB certainly is, Lehigh certainly is not. A Liberty AQ couldn't hurt

[GGASU]

Wofford is in... no way a socon champ at 8-3 with a win in boone gets left out...

I think Wofford gets in before App State. If Citadel wins against Furman meaning the autobid goes to Georgia Southern. I am not convinced that the Mountaineers are in.

[Go Apps]

I think Wofford gets in before App State. If Citadel wins against Furman meaning the autobid goes to Georgia Southern. I am not convinced that the Mountaineers are in.

REALLY COME ON WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING!!!

[FargoBison]

App has 8 DI wins...App is in without question.

[katstrapper]

Sam Houston in the ODU bracket? Interesting.

[GGASU]

REALLY COME ON WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING!!!

Nothing...just think that Wofford is obviously better than
App. And if socon only gets 2 in, I think that Wofford should get the nod.

[asu3peat]

Wofford is obviously better than App.

So Wofford's 7 D1 wins are greater than App's 8 D1 wins? Is Wofford's only D1 OOC win against a 2-8 Big South team, in G-W, is greater than Apps 2 OOC D1 wins against UM and potential Big South Co-Champ CCU?

Not trying to say Wofford doesn't deserve to be in but no way do they deserve to be in over ASU. This was not the year to be playing a DII squad with so many strong bubble resumes.

[Go Apps]

ASU was almost in at 7-4 - this is just a nonissue we are in and we get a bye and we may get a seed

[klak]

Touting Montana as a big win doesn't hold much water this year. They're currently 5-5 and their 5 wins are to teams with a combined 12 wins.

Montana has the name, but not the team.

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

Apps in

[Mountaineer#96]

No doubt our ticket was punched by beating GSU at Paulson, the Furman win was for the autobid and maybe a seed.

Settle down folks nothing to see here.

[eaglewraith]

No doubt our ticket was punched by beating GSU at Paulson, the Furman win was for the autobid and maybe a seed.

Settle down folks nothing to see here.

Unless Citadel beats Furman.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

App has the best schedule resume in the SoCon BY FAR. At 8-3, regardless of autobid, IMVHO they are in the field.

[asu3peat]

Touting Montana as a big win doesn't hold much water this year. They're currently 5-5 and their 5 wins are to teams with a combined 12 wins.

Montana has the name, but not the team.

Not touting UM as a big win except to point out that it was 1 of 2 D1 OOC wins with both victories coming against teams from an AQ conference. This was in response to the poster who said "Wofford is obviously better...and should get the nod over ASU." Had Wofford not played Lincoln and replaced them with another Big South or OVC team possibly giving them 2 D1 OOC wins, I'd be more willing to concede the point. Of course it would most likely be a moot point because then both ASU and Wofford would each have 8 D1 wins.

[GGASU]

Not touting UM as a big win except to point out that it was 1 of 2 D1 OOC wins with both victories coming against teams from an AQ conference. This was in response to the poster who said "Wofford is obviously better...and should get the nod over ASU." Had Wofford not played Lincoln and replaced them with another Big South or OVC team possibly giving them 2 D1 OOC wins, I'd be more willing to concede the point. Of course it would most likely be a moot point because then both ASU and Wofford would each have 8 D1 wins.

I said Wofford was obviously better because they beat us by double digits in Boone, and we were lucky it wasn't worse.

Both teams are going to be 8-3 and 6-2 in the same conference. The first tie breaker in any situation is always head to head. It is not who else did you play.

Look, I think ASU will make the field, I just saw a lot of poster's predictions leaving out Wofford. I just stated that if I was on the committee and it came down to one spot between ASU and Wofford, I would give the last spot to the Terriers. This is coming from a huge ASU homer.

It is not like I am way off base here. If we do not get the autobid, the GPI index has us as getting the 9th at large bid, with Wofford getting the 10th and final at large bid.

[asu3peat]

Both teams are going to be 8-3....

Not in the eyes of the selection committee and that's all that matters. Wofford will be 7-3 as the win over DII Lincoln carries no weight so there is no tie breaker. I do agree that H2H is the first tie breaker.

[GGASU]

I do agree that H2H is the first tie breaker.

You are entitled to your opinion.

Head To Head is the first tie breaker in every sport in every league all around the world. From pee wee badminton in China to semi pro Cricket in England. But if you think that FCS football should be the lone sport league in the world not to use head to head as the first tie breaker that is fine.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

You are entitled to your opinion.

Head To Head is the first tie breaker in every sport in every league all around the world. From pee wee badminton in China to semi pro Cricket in England. But if you think that FCS football should be the lone sport league in the world not to use head to head as the first tie breaker that is fine.

I'm pretty sure head-to-head is considered in the chamber, but it's also not the be-all and end-all, either. Nothing is.

[STACCATS]

SEEDS
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. Eastern Washington
4. Old Dominion
5. Illinois State

Playoff Locks

1. Central Arkansas (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. Southland automatic qualifier
ii. Could end up a seed by default – long shot

2. Appalachian State (8-3)
a. Outlook
i. SoCon auto bid winner - most likely

3. Eastern Illinois (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. OVC auto bid winner

4. Bethune-Cookman (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. MEAC auto bid winner

5. Colgate (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Patriot auto bid winner

6. Northeast autobid winner
a. Outlook
i. Wagner has the inside track

7. North Dakota State (9-1)
a. Outlook
i. 9 Division 1 wins already
ii. FBS win over CSU
iii. Can lock up the auto bid by beating Ill St. on the last weekend.

8. Illinois State (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. 8 Division 1 wins
ii. FBS win over E. Michigan

9. Old Dominion (9-1)
a. Outlook
i. 9 Division 1 wins
ii. All Division 1 schedule – 1 FCS loss

10. New Hampshire (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. 8 Division 1 wins
ii. 1 FBS Loss, 1 in division loss

11. Montana State (9-1)
a. Outlook
i. Beat the grizzlies to lock up a seed
ii. Auto bid with a win and an NAU win over Cal Poly or win and EWU loss

12. Eastern Washington (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. Win last game to lock up a seed
ii. Potential for the auto bid with MSU loss or Cal Poly win with MSU win

13. Georgia Southern (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. Sure loss on the last weekend to Georgia making them 8-3, with little shot at a seed

14. Cal Poly (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. Can they gain a seed with 9 wins?
ii. FBS win over Wyoming

Bubble Teams
1. Sam Houston State (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. Highly ranked team with only 7 division 1 wins – is that enough?
ii. Sure loss on the last weekend @ Texas A&M

2. South Dakota State (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Beat South Dakota to get to 8 Division 1 wins – putting them in
ii. 2 good OCC wins vs Big Sky and Southland

3. Northern Arizona (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. Win last game and they are in / Slim auto bid scenarios

4. Eastern Kentucky (8-3)
a. Outlook
i. 8 Division 1 wins

5. James Madison (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Must beat Old Dominion on the last weekend to get to 8 division 1 wins
ii. 1 Loss is to FBS West Virginia

6. Villanova (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Win last game to finish with 8 Division 1 wins

7. Richmond (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Win last game to finish 8-3 with 8 Division 1 wins

8. Indiana State (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Win at Youngstown State to finish 8-3 with 7 Division 1 wins

9. Wofford (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. With a season ending loss to FBS South Carolina, putting them at 8-3 with 7 Division 1 wins. Will that be enough?

10. Stony Brook (9-2)
a. Outlook
i. 8 Division 1 wins
ii. FBS win over Army Only loss to FBS Syracuse
iii. Auto bid with Liberty loss

11. Coastal Carolina (6-4)
a. Outlook
i. Beat Charleston Southern and have Liberty beat VMI, and Coastal wins the Big South auto bid tiebreaker – via most conference road wins

12. Towson (5-4)
a. Outlook
i. Win @ New Hampshire to finish 7-4 with 7 Division 1 wins & they might sneak in
ii. 2 of 4 losses are FBS losses

13. Lehigh (9-1)
a. Outlook
i. Beat Lafayette and they will be squarely on the bubble, a loss and they are out
ii. 9 Division 1 wins in a weak league

Teams who need a miracle

14. Tennessee State (8-2)
a. Outlook
i. Win last game to finish 9-2 with 9 division 1 wins
ii. All division 1 schedule / Late season collapse hurts them

15. Tennessee Martin (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Win last game to get to 8 division 1 wins
ii. FBS Win over Memphis

16. Samford (7-3)
a. Outlook
i. Win @ FBS Kentucky to finish the year 8-3 with 7 Division 1 wins
ii. Hope for a miracle

17. Liberty (4-5)
a. Outlook
i. Beat VMI and have Coastal Carolina lose and they win the Big South auto bid

18. Sacramento State (6-4)
a. Outlook
i. Win @ UC Davis on the last weekend and hope for a big miracle

Bracket

(1)North Dakota State
Wagner @ Northern Arizona

@ Georgia Southern
Sam Houston St

(5)Illinois State
Eastern Kentucky

Villanova @ Bethune Cookman
(4)Old Dominion

(3) Eastern Washington
Colgate @ South Dakota State

@ Appalachian State
New Hampshire

@ Central Arkansas
Cal Poly

Coastal Carolina @ E. Illinois
(2) Montana State

[asu3peat]

You are entitled to your opinion.

Head To Head is the first tie breaker in every sport in every league all around the world. From pee wee badminton in China to semi pro Cricket in England. But if you think that FCS football should be the lone sport league in the world not to use head to head as the first tie breaker that is fine.

As are you but I believe you are missing the point. There is no tie! In the eyes of the selection committee Wofford will only have 7 D1 wins (assuming loss to USC) while ASU has 8 D1 victories. Had Wofford played any D1 team (even a non-scholly) instead of DII Lincoln then I'd concede to the H2H tie breaker you're so emphatically supporting. This is not about personal feelings or views, I'm trying to be objective and see it through the eyes of the selection committee.

[Reign of Terrier]

7 D1 wins as opposed to 8 may seem like a disqaulifier, but it really isn't. Strength of schedule is important. Wofford is in by virtue of being a conference champion and the fact that thety are in the top 10. There is no reason to keep them out. Let's remember that D1 wins isn't a litmus test as much as it is a disqualifier for bubble teams.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

7 D1 wins as opposed to 8 may seem like a disqaulifier, but it really isn't. Strength of schedule is important. Wofford is in by virtue of being a conference champion and the fact that thety are in the top 10. There is no reason to keep them out. Let's remember that D1 wins isn't a litmus test as much as it is a disqualifier for bubble teams.

After this weekend, Indiana State could also be a 7 D1-win co-champ of the MVFC... That would make things even more interesting.