Nobowls.com Bracket ?

[ITmonarch10]

Any thoughts? 70/72 playoff selection isn't to bad. Also I expect a lot of this stuff to change in the final week. *they noted Coastal Carolina winning the Big South AQ if liberty wins.
Every week's bracket is based on an "If the season ended today" mindset.

AUTOMATIC BIDS

E. Washington (Big Sky)

Stony Brook (Big South)

New Hampshire (CAA)

Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)

North Dakota St. (MVFC)

Wagner (NEC)

E. Illinois (OVC)

Colgate (Patriot)

Appalachian St. (Southern)

Central Arkansas (Southland)


AT-LARGE BIDS

Cal Poly (8-2)

Georgia Southern (8-2)

Illinois St. (8-2)

Lehigh (9-1)

Montana St. (9-1)

N. Arizona (8-2)

Old Dominion (9-1)

Richmond (7-3)

Sam Houston St. (8-2)

Villanova (7-3)


BUBBLE BURST

South Dakota St. (7-3)

James Madison (7-3)

Wofford (8-2)

Indiana St. (7-3)


NEXT FOUR OUT

Tennesseee St. (8-2)

Albany (8-2)

Sacramento St. (6-4)

Towson (6-4)

ABOUT

Since its inception in 2008, NoBowls has correctly predicted 70 of the 72 teams selected to participate in the FCS postseason. Resident bracketologist Erik Pitzer ([email protected]) strives to provide weekly bias-free predictions heavily rooted in the same criteria set forth by the NCAA selection guidelines.


The Bracket: Week 11

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png
Posted November 11, 2012 at 3:23 PM EST

Week 11: The Bracket Before the Bracket

Feeling a little unsure of your team's postseason chances? You're not alone. The Week 11 scoreboard set up what's sure to be an exciting final week and nervy selection show for many quality teams.
Quick Notes


The Big South debacle. While Stony Brook currently holds the auto-bid in this week's bracket with an extra game played in conference at this point, their loss at Liberty Saturday opens the door for Coastal Carolina to take the auto-bid next week.
Who gets the #5 seed? Sam Houston State is getting the love in the polls, but can you give them the seed over a Central Arkansas team that beat them head-to-head? The SoCon is not represented anywhere in the seeds, but can you justify giving it to a 3-loss Appalachian State team or a Georgia Southern team that didn't win the conference auto-bid? At the moment, we'll slide the CAA auto-bid (New Hampshire) into that slot.
The impending 8-3 mega-bubble. When the dust settles at the end of the day this coming Saturday, we're all but guaranteed to see a handful of 8-3 power conference teams fighting for a shrinking number of at-large spots. As history has shown us, expect teams on that bubble with Division II games on the schedule to be on the outside looking in.

[FargoBison]

If this happens a number of fans from schools will go into full meltdown mode. Every computer ranking has the MVFC at #1 and the league will get as many teams in as the SLC, PL, and Big South. Not going to happen!

[ITmonarch10]

If this happens a number of fans from schools will go into full meltdown mode. Every computer ranking has the MVFC at #1 and the league will get as many teams in as the SLC, PL, and Big South. Not going to happen!

Nobowls.com projection change every week.

I think final projections from his poll will be
Richmond out
NAU out
lehigh out

SDSU (Hurting really bad in the polls)
Wofford in (7 fcs wins)
EKY in

[BEAR]

Sam will have 7 division I wins...unless they beat Texas A&M this weekend. So they will be 7-3, not 8-2.

[FargoBison]

Nobowls.com projection change every week.

I think final projections from his poll will be
Richmond out
NAU out
lehigh out

SDSU (Hurting really bad in the polls)
Wofford in (7 fcs wins)
EKY in

I do agree that NAU is out if they lose, same could be said for CP. That is pretty much a play-in game.

[RadioFan]

I don't see a 7-3 Richmond AND 7-3 'Nova get in before Wofford.

One of those CAA teams will be out.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

If SDSU gets their 8th D1 win next weekend and they are left out of the playoffs, especially after just losing a nail-biter by 3 @ #1 NDSU, it would be tragic... I assume (or, maybe hope) he is only basing his playoff field off of the way things stand RIGHT NOW, not taking into consideration how things will play out the remainder of the season.

EDIT: Just found this below on his website to confirm my hope...

Breaking It Down

Selecting the Field
Every week's bracket is based on an "If the season ended today" mindset. The ten automatic bids are just that: automatic. Whichever team is atop the standings of each of the ten auto-bid conferences at the end of the week receives a bid. Expectedly, teams on top of conference standings early in the season often are not in the same spot come Selection Sunday. The other ten bids, the at-large selections, are simply the teams I believe to be the best remaining in the country. Keep in mind again this is not a prediction of what I think the brackets will look like in late November, but rather a collection of deserving teams week to week.

[FargoBison]

If SDSU gets their 8th D1 win next weekend and they are left out of the playoffs, especially after just losing a nail-biter by 3 @ #1 NDSU, it would be tragic... I assume (or, maybe hope) he is only basing his playoff field off of the way things stand RIGHT NOW, not taking into consideration how things will play out the remainder of the season.

EDIT: Just found this below on his website to confirm my hope...

Breaking It Down

Selecting the Field
Every week's bracket is based on an "If the season ended today" mindset. The ten automatic bids are just that: automatic. Whichever team is atop the standings of each of the ten auto-bid conferences at the end of the week receives a bid. Expectedly, teams on top of conference standings early in the season often are not in the same spot come Selection Sunday. The other ten bids, the at-large selections, are simply the teams I believe to be the best remaining in the country. Keep in mind again this is not a prediction of what I think the brackets will look like in late November, but rather a collection of deserving teams week to week.

Just think SDSU could pummel USD and then get knocked out of the playoffs by a team that couldn't even beat the one team that lost to the Yotes.

[Appattk]

Would love to play Richmond at home and then visit ODU.... Time for another App Bus!

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Just think SDSU could pummel USD and then get knocked out of the playoffs by a team that couldn't even beat the one team that lost to the Yotes.

Dude... I can't even imagine what I'd feel like if that were to happen... I was sick for 3 days after we blew that 35 point lead (or whatever it was) at Montana a few years ago in the playoffs. Getting left out and not getting the chance to have an opportunity would probably trump that.

[heath]

with one week to go,this is the best bracket I've seen. Things might change after Saturday,but if seasons were complete,this makes sense.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.jannigogo.com/dealmac/make-it-so.jpg

[FargoBison]

Dude... I can't even imagine what I'd feel like if that were to happen... I was sick for 3 days after we blew that 35 point lead (or whatever it was) at Montana a few years ago in the playoffs. Getting left out and not getting the chance to have an opportunity would probably trump that.

I think you guys have to be in but with that said some fans of at least several teams are going to be very angry come Sunday. I think a lot of people can be fine with going 7-4 and being left out but 8-3 or 9-2 or maybe even 10-1 will be a much tougher pill to swallow

[heath]

I think you guys have to be in but with that said some fans of at least several teams are going to be very angry come Sunday. I think a lot of people can be fine with going 7-4 and being left out but 8-3 or 9-2 or maybe even 10-1 will be a much tougher pill to swallow

+1,so true

[Go...gate]

Looks pretty good to me.

[alvinkayak6]

There is got to be a better way to list the teams than in the Joe Lunardi format. Where does Stony Brook rank if they don't get an AQ? That is the most burning question, IMO. If the predictions are so good, go to Vegas with them! :)

[Jacked_Rabbit]

I think you guys have to be in but with that said some fans of at least several teams are going to be very angry come Sunday. I think a lot of people can be fine with going 7-4 and being left out but 8-3 or 9-2 or maybe even 10-1 will be a much tougher pill to swallow

Especially when our 3 loses would be:

1. At FBS Kansas
2. At #1 NDSU by 3 last week.
3. At Northern Iowa

I'm just going to pretend I've never seen this thread.... MEMORY ERASED!
http://comicattack.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Men-in-Black-pic-3.jpg

[ITmonarch10]

Especially when our 3 loses would be:

1. At FBS Kansas
2. At #1 NDSU by 3 last week.
3. At Northern Iowa

I'm just going to pretend I've never seen this thread.... MEMORY ERASED!
http://comicattack.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Men-in-Black-pic-3.jpg

You do know a lot of these teams are playing for their playoff live next week against tough teams. You are lucky to have a bottom feeder as your next opponent.

[mcveyrl]

I don't see a 7-3 Richmond AND 7-3 'Nova get in before Wofford.

One of those CAA teams will be out.

Maybe, but both of those CAA teams have an all DI schedule and if they win this weekend have eight DI wins to Wofford's seven...both of those factors give them the advantage. What advantage would Wofford have over them?

[heath]

There is got to be a better way to list the teams than in the Joe Lunardi format. Where does Stony Brook rank if they don't get an AQ? That is the most burning question, IMO. If the predictions are so good, go to Vegas with them! :)

Give it a try Alvin.xsmiley_wix This looks to be the best. Stony Brook is in a tough situation,but just DO NOT lose to Liberty and you're in.In your opinion,what are the biggest flaws in this prediction?

[Jacked_Rabbit]

You do know a lot of these teams are playing for their playoff live next week against tough teams. You are lucky to have a bottom feeder as your next opponent.

The same bottom feeder easily handled Colgate, the Patriot League champ... xsmhx

You are right though, we do have an lesser challenge ahead of us than some. I went back and forth with this guy via email, and he did state that he views the NAU/Poly game as a playoff game. The loser will be out of next week's bracket, so that frees up a spot right there. Also, he listed teams like Villanova, Richmond, Lehigh, Illinois State, Wofford & James Madison on the potential chopping block with a loss this coming weekend.

[ITmonarch10]

Maybe, but both of those CAA teams have an all DI schedule and if they win this weekend have eight DI wins to Wofford's seven...both of those factors give them the advantage. What advantage would Wofford have over them? Poll ranking basically but they aren't far apart in computer rankings and I'm not sure how well wofford has to do against SC to rise or fall in the computers. However, it the human element that will matter most this year given so many eligible teams. I don't think anyone is discounting Lehigh or Stony Brook form making the playoffs at large even with their bad computer ratings.

[dudeitsaid]

he views the NAU/Poly game as a playoff game. The loser will be out of next week's bracket, so that frees up a spot right there.

Maybe...certainly would not be good for Poly to have 3 out of 4 losses, but 3 of those losses would come from some of the top teams in the Big Sky. They would still have 8 D1 wins, and one of them would be over an FBS team. Would not want to be Cal Poly if they lose. However, I could still see them making the field. No way NAU makes it if they lose, though.

[ITmonarch10]

Maybe...certainly would not be good for Poly to have 3 out of 4 losses, but 3 of those losses would come from some of the top teams in the Big Sky. They would still have 8 D1 wins, and one of them would be over an FBS team. Would not want to be Cal Poly if they lose. However, I could still see them making the field. No way NAU makes it if they lose, though. Another Loss would kick Cal poly to around Rank #22/23 in the sports network poll. Cal poly is currently #10 in massey (shocking isn't it) and if they lose they will probably fall to about #15. Each team schedule will be examined to the committee and a couple things I noticed. Wyoming is an impressive FBS win, lost 3 conference games(cant say that about any other team in the field), Best FCS win UC Davis (5-5), 8 Div 1 wins (superior consideration than those with less), no victories against teams even in the top 40. To me they failed the legitimate FCS title contender test but I'm not the committee. Considering how stacked the playoffs are Id rather let someone like Stony Brook or EKU in over Cal Poly in the event they lose against NAU.

[MTfan4life]

If this happens a number of fans from schools will go into full meltdown mode. Every computer ranking has the MVFC at #1 and the league will get as many teams in as the SLC, PL, and Big South. Not going to happen!

Didn't the exact same thing happen last season? I'm pretty sure I remember the Valley being ranked number one by computers most of the season and I'm pretty sure I remember the Valley getting 2 teams in. The thing to remember is that no one on the committee is a computer system. They're all people. Usually there's slightly different opinions between math systems and people. I think the Valley will get at least three in the tournament, but saying that they deserve it because of their almost irrelevant computer rankings will only get them so far.

[PAllen]

Best Bracket I've seen so far. Obviously a lot could change based on what happens Saturday, but this looks pretty good, got the regionalization right too.

[danefan]

NoBowls has been very accurate over the years as have most of us on here.

This year might provide the most uknown ever for at-larges. Depends on what happens this weekend.

[asucrutch23]

This is very similar to my bracket. I have the same 5 seeds, but in a different order. Only changes I would make as for as participants are swapping NAU and Lehigh for Coastal Carolina and South Dakota State. Granted my bracket is based off what I think will happen and my predictions for the remaining games, but I have several of the same matchups as NoBowls.

Here is what I have:

Wagner at Stony Brook winner at #1 Eastern Washington
Central Arkansas at Illinois State

Cal Poly at #5 New Hampshire
Villanova at Coastal Carolina winner at #4 North Dakota State

Eastern Illinois at South Dakota State winner at #3 Montana State
Richmond at Appalachian State

Sam Houston State at Georgia Southern
Bethune-Cookman at Colgate winner at #2 Old Dominion


This obviously assumes an NAU loss against Cal Poly. I also see NDSU slipping at ISUr, hence the #4 seed. If NDSU wins, they are my #1.

[danefan]

This is very similar to my bracket. I have the same 5 seeds, but in a different order. Only changes I would make as for as participants are swapping NAU and Lehigh for Coastal Carolina and South Dakota State. Granted my bracket is based off what I think will happen and my predictions for the remaining games, but I have several of the same matchups as NoBowls.

Here is what I have:

Wagner at Stony Brook winner at #1 Eastern Washington
Central Arkansas at Illinois State

Cal Poly at #5 New Hampshire
Villanova at Coastal Carolina winner at #4 North Dakota State

Eastern Illinois at South Dakota State winner at #3 Montana State
Richmond at Appalachian State

Sam Houston State at Georgia Southern
Bethune-Cookman at Colgate winner at #2 Old Dominion


This obviously assumes an NAU loss against Cal Poly. I also see NDSU slipping at ISUr, hence the #4 seed. If NDSU wins, they are my #1.

So you assume Liberty loses to Charleston Southern? I think that's what needs to happen for Stony Brook to get the AQ. If not, Coastal is in with the AQ.

[asucrutch23]

So you assume Liberty loses to Charleston Southern?

No, Liberty plays VMI. I see a 3 way tie in the Big South, which Coastal wins by virtue of a 3-0 conference road record. Then I see Stony Brook grabbing one of the last couple at large bids.

[danefan]

No, Liberty plays VMI. I see a 3 way tie in the Big South, which Coastal wins by virtue of a 3-0 conference road record. Then I see Stony Brook grabbing one of the last couple at large bids.

Got it. Sorry misread your post.

Makes sense.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

Another Loss would kick Cal poly to around Rank #22/23 in the sports network poll. Cal poly is currently #10 in massey (shocking isn't it) and if they lose they will probably fall to about #15. Each team schedule will be examined to the committee and a couple things I noticed. Wyoming is an impressive FBS win, lost 3 conference games(cant say that about any other team in the field), Best FCS win UC Davis (5-5), 8 Div 1 wins (superior consideration than those with less), no victories against teams even in the top 40. To me they failed the legitimate FCS title contender test but I'm not the committee. Considering how stacked the playoffs are Id rather let someone like Stony Brook or EKU in over Cal Poly in the event they lose against NAU.

SDSU is #4 in Massey and will probably end up around #17/18 in the SN Poll... GPI will have them at #10 or so.

He did mention that even with a Cal Poly loss at NAU, they'll have an outside chance at making the field but will need a lot of help.

[FargoBison]

Didn't the exact same thing happen last season? I'm pretty sure I remember the Valley being ranked number one by computers most of the season and I'm pretty sure I remember the Valley getting 2 teams in. The thing to remember is that no one on the committee is a computer system. They're all people. Usually there's slightly different opinions between math systems and people. I think the Valley will get at least three in the tournament, but saying that they deserve it because of their almost irrelevant computer rankings will only get them so far.

Last year the Valley collectively crapped the bed on the final day of the season. Two teams fell to 6-5 and the other fell to 7-4(that team had a weak schedule, with no real significant win). Plus there were two dominant teams, this year things are more even.

They valley got what it deserved last year, two seeded teams.