Playoffs - 1 week to go The way you like

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy and SWAC does not participate Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated. D11 wins are excluded with an **.


1. Bethune Cookman (MEAC)

Outlook: IN/AQ A one bid conference and one of the four above – I think Bethune

2. Appalachian State (8-3, 6-2 Southern)
The Games: Furman

Outlook: IN/AQA last play save secures a win over Furman – ASU tried to give their title away but now grabs the AQ – will be scoreboard watching hoping about 4 teams slip up next week to get a top 4 seed

3. Central Arkansas (7-2, 6-1 Southland)**
The Games: E Ilinois

Outlook:IN/AQ Won the autobid and in the field

4. Eastern Illinois (7-3, 6-1 OVC)
The Games: at C. Arkansas

Outlook: IN/AQ Grabs the AB for the OVC, great game next week a postseason preview

5. Colgate (7-3, 5-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Fordham

Outlook: IN/AQ Grabs the AB and the at large field is even more nervous

6. Wagner (NEC)

Outlook: IN/AQ One bid conference Wagner takes control of a Thanksgiving date

7. North Dakota State (9-1, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: IN at Ill St

Outlook: IN The Bison are back in the drivers seat for the AB things are looking good

8. Montana State (8-1, 6-1 Big Sky)**
The Games: at Montana

Outlook: Battle for the AB and a top seed – but tough task next week

9. Sam Houston State (7-2, 6-1 Southland)**
The Games: at Texas A&M

Outlook: IN They get in the field and are alive for an seed

10. Ga Southern (8-2, 6-2 Southern)
The Games: at Georgia

Outlook: IN GSU is in the field and will lose next week but ASU stole the AB GSU will get Thanksgiving off and will host a 2nd round home game for sure!

11. Old Dominion (9-1, 6-1 CAA not eligible for Conf title)
The Games: at JMU

Outlook: IN Can’t win the AB but are fighting for a top seed they survived this weekend need a win next week

12. Illinois State (8-2, 6-2 MVC)
The Games: NDSU

Outlook: IN An 8 win team out of the MVC gets in!

13. Wofford (7-2, 6-2 Southern)**
The Games: at S. Carolina

Outlook: Avoided a second OT to grab a piece of the title and a Thanksgiving date

14. Coastal Carolina (6-4, 4-1 Big South)
The Games: vs Char Southern

Outlook: A win and a Liberty win puts them in as the AB for the Big South

15. Eastern Washington (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Port St

Outlook: Almost lost and would have been very interesting needs a win to keep pace with others in conference race

16. New Hampshire (8-2, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson

Outlook: Needs a huge win next week to secure the AB and eliminate Towson

17. South Dakota State (7-3, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: S. Dakota

Outlook: Must win situation and I believe they get it and make the field

18. Liberty (5-5, 4-1 Big South)
The Games: at VMI

Outlook: A win keeps them alive

19. Northern Arizona (7-2, 6-1 Big Sky)**
The Games: Cal Poly

Outlook: Well things changed overnight for NAU they may be in a must win to get in the field

20. Cal Poly (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at N.Arizona

Outlook: A big statement this weekend but I think still needs a victory next week the loser falls to the bubble

21. Tennessee State (8-2, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: at UT Martin

Outlook: Needs a win next week to stay in the discussion

22. Lehigh 9-1, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Layfayette

Outlook: Things are up in the air for an at large they must win to stay alive

23. Indiana State (7-3, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: at Youngstown St

Outlook: I think they are hoping for a SDST loss and needs a win to stay alive

24. Stoney Brook (9-2, 5-1 Big South)
The Games:

Outlook: A great win over Army keeps them in the discussion but not sure two teams get in from this conference.

25. Villanova (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware

Outlook: Still alive, but must beat the Hens

26. UT Martin (7-2, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Tenn St

Outlook: Just when we thought they were on their way to the playoffs I think Martin could have ended those thoughts – the loser next week is definitely eliminated from the discussion

27. Richmond (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at W&M

Outlook: Still needs a win to get in the discussion

28. Towson (6-4, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at N. Hampshire

Outlook: Needs a victory next week to stay alive – very tough!

29. James Madison (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: ODU

Outlook: Will have to beat ODU next week a tall task

30. Eastern Kentucky (8-3, 6-2 OVC)
The Games:

Outlook: Plays the waiting game but I think they are out

31. Citadel (6-4, 4-3 Southern)
The Games: at Furman

Outlook: Will need one more win but still not enough

32. Samford (6-3, 5-3 Southern)**
The Games: at Kentucky

Outlook: They have to beat Kentucky if they do it still might not be enough


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Colgate CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: Mont State Southland: C. Arkansas
Southern: ASU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune OVC: Eastern Illinois
Big South: Coastal Carolina NEC: Wagner

At-large: Wofford, Illinois State, Sam Houston State, Villanova, N. Arizona, ODU, Tenn State, E. Washington, South Dakota State, GSU

Seeds: ASU, Mont St, NDSU, ODU, Sam Houston State
Last In: Tenn State, Villanova
Last Out: Lehigh, Stoney Brook, Richmond, Indiana State


Bracket I:
S Dakota State @ Tenn State winner at No. 1 NDSU
Illinois State @ E. Illinois

Villanova @ Bethune winner at No. 4 ASU
N Arizona @ No. 5 Sam Houston State

Bracket II:
Wofford @ Coastal Carolina winner at No. 3 ODU
N Hampshire @ GSU

Wagner @ Colgate winner at No. 2 Mont State
E Washington @ C. Arkansas

[walliver]

I don't see NewHampshire in your bracket, I'm I overlooking something.

Also, the committee would probably send Wofford to South Dakota State. :)

You have Northern Arizona playing Sam Houston State, GSU, and Central Arkansas on the same day .. I'll bet they're really tired when it's all over.

[drpnut]

I would love to play Coastal and if we do I think it would be in Spartanburg. I think we would outbid Coach Moglia. I would also like to face Colgate. If we have to travel a big distance I would want to play one of the MVC schools not named NDSU.

[WileECoyote06]

You have Northern Arizona listed three times. . . and the SDSU @TSU game listed twice.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

This is laughable. You don't even include EWU in your bracket despite having them in your at large. ASU at 8-3, no FBS wins a seed over 9-2 EWU win an FBS win? Same with SHSU? MSU with a #2 seed despite same number of D-I wins as EWU, plus a loss to EWU?

[bostonspider]

If Villanova and Richmond both win next week, why would VU get in over UR, both 8-3, 6-2 CAA, whom they lost to at home?

[Go Apps]

Fixed Thanks

[WileECoyote06]

If Villanova and Richmond both win next week, why would VU get in over UR, both 8-3, 6-2 CAA, whom they lost to at home?

this is going to be one hell of a conundrum for the committee. In the past, they've seemed to place more value on who you beat, rather than who you've lost to. Villanova has that win against ODU in their back-pocket.

[Go Apps]

apologize to all but fixed

[ITmonarch10]

If Villanova and Richmond both win next week, why would VU get in over UR, both 8-3, 6-2 CAA, whom they lost to at home?

The at large field is strong this year. Nova will end up higher in the polls and in GPI at the end of the year. If you want Richmond in the playoff, I think you want ODU and Delaware to win against JMU and Nova next week.

[Go Apps]

As for the ASU nod - they get the autobid - GSU - Sam Houston will lose - think ODU or N Hampshire trips up so does either Mont State or EWU just guessing

In my scenario that is 3 big sky, 3 CAA, 3 Socon, 3 MVC - 2 Southland, 2 OVC - just dont believe that Big South gets 2 - that leaves Lehigh that really gets hurt if Lehigh gets in I think it is as the expense of the OVC or CAA - just a guess

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

3 MV teams are not going to be in the same bracket.....unless regionalization is part of it now.

[Go Apps]

3 MV teams are not going to be in the same bracket.....unless regionalization is part of it now.

Regionalization has been a part of it since 9/11 - prior to that they used to seed the top 8 but they wanted to keep people on buses the rule is to avoid flights and past the first round anybody can play anyone else

[SpiderJPO]

Many of you on this site are a joke and way too impartial. I get sick of how Richmond is continuously listed behind JMU and VU when we have beat both head to head already this year. You can punch in all the numbers you want but that committee will see one thing we beat both of those teams head to head on the field. Our losses are to UVA (BCS) ODU and UNH who will both be in the top 10. We are clearly the third CAA team in if we win this week. The game is not about size of enrollment or fanbase but who did you beat.

[bojeta]

Correction needs to be made: Cal Poly, EWU, MSU, and NAU are all currently 6-1 in Big Sky Conference games. Big Sky teams were able to schedule other Big Sky teams as OOC games. The Cal Poly vs EWU game does not count in conference standings.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

^^Well, we also have VU beat on fanbase but I agree with your main point.

We beat VU on the road and the game really wasn't that close.

Appreciate the OP's insight but if you think an 8-3 Richmond team would need additional help to get into the bracket, I need some of what you're smoking.

[ITmonarch10]

Many of you on this site are a joke and way too impartial. I get sick of how Richmond is continuously listed behind JMU and VU when we have beat both head to head already this year. You can punch in all the numbers you want but that committee will see one thing we beat both of those teams head to head on the field. Our losses are to UVA (BCS) ODU and UNH who will both be in the top 10. We are clearly the third CAA team in if we win this week. The game is not about size of enrollment or fanbase but who did you beat.
The CAA is only going to get 3-4 teams in this year regardless of how many team finish 8-3. If everything goes according to script in the polls and GPI, their are going to be at least 1 or 2 8-3 CAA team on the wrong side of the bubble. If it does come down to Head to head, then yes I have Richmond in and Nova out ;however, I don't think it is. Thank you Rhode Island and GaState for shattering our conference GPI this year.

[SpiderJPO]

ITmonarch I am having a hard time following your logic as my point is if Richmond wins this week we are the third CAA team in the field. If you want to rely so much on computers and polls check out the latest Sagarin poll on another thread on this site. Richmond is the highest ranked CAA team.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

What is better about VU's resume than Richmond's resume? Is the ODU matchup somehow more valuable than the h2h matchup?

[bjtheflamesfan]

Go Apps...Liberty beat Stony Brook not Army and we have to have a win and a CCU loss to get in the field

[Go Apps]

Will fix

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

If UCA wouldn't get the seed over SHSU, I don't see how App. would get seeded over GSU. Also, no way is EWU unseeded unless they somehow choke versus Portland State.

[Horseshoe App]

I doubt either of us get a seed, but if you lose to UGA, we would have the same record and we beat you. So, if one of us do get a seed, it should be us. That is just logical.


If UCA wouldn't get the seed over SHSU, I don't see how App. would get seeded over GSU. Also, no way is EWU unseeded unless they somehow choke versus Portland State.

[Go Apps]

If UCA wouldn't get the seed over SHSU, I don't see how App. would get seeded over GSU. Also, no way is EWU unseeded unless they somehow choke versus Portland State.

What do you mean on ASU over GSU - they will have the same record after they lose next week and App will be ahead in the polls and App beat them head to head??

Two losses to FBS teams on the for SHState

[Go Apps]

Thinking the Socon looks so strong in the end that they may spead the seeds out and then there is the $$ yes that does mean something

[kalm]

If UCA wouldn't get the seed over SHSU, I don't see how App. would get seeded over GSU. Also, no way is EWU unseeded unless they somehow choke versus Portland State.

This.

And I know Ursus might chime in with the point that SHSU is blowing every one out right now and they are. But I think UCA earned higher consideration for a seed with a very similar schedule and the H2H victory.

SHSU's run last year gives the Southland the appearance of being improved and I think that might be enough to lend credence to a 9-2 UCA seed over an 8-3 team from another power conference (a la ASU). But I would still place a 9-2 (or better) NDSU, Illinois State, NAU, UNH, ODU, Montana State, Cal Poly, and EWU ahead of any other 8-3 team.

The seeds should come out of those eight teams plus UCA.

[Cincy App]

Since ASU has completed its regular season, ASU fans can look ahead to the playoffs. Below is my projection based on this week’s standings. Much will likely change next week:

Colgate at E. Illinois winner at #1 ND State
New Hampshire at SD State

Bethune Cookman at N. Arizona winner at #4 Sam Houston St
Central Arkansas at #5 E. Washington

Wagner at Villanova winner at #2 Montana St
Illinois St at Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina at Wofford winner at #3 Old Dominion
Richmond at Appalachian St

Some notes… Indiana St will likely be in the field if they beat YSU next week. 4 CAA teams could be a stretch since conference is perceived weaker than it historically has been. I project UCA and NAU as the 12 and 13th teams right now but gave UCA the first round bye for now based on the Big Sky schedule where NAU did not play either MSU or EWU. I don’t have Lehigh or Stony Brook in the field right now but (1) much can change next week and (2) there always is a surprise in the field. I believe that GSU, UNH and ASU (in no particular order) are the teams that are next in line for seeds if we see upsets at the top next weekend. Good luck to all next week.

[Go Apps]

Some thoughts Sam Houston can only get to 7 D1 wins ASU has 8

both GSU and SHSt will lose their games next week so that puts ASU at 6 in the polls a loss by ODU/E Washington/Mont State/N Hampshire puts them in the seed discussion only a top four will yeild dollars

As for Mont State/C ARk they too have wins over D11 schools which are tossed out - ASU will look at 8-2 in the end

[ITmonarch10]

ITmonarch I am having a hard time following your logic as my point is if Richmond wins this week we are the third CAA team in the field. If you want to rely so much on computers and polls check out the latest Sagarin poll on another thread on this site. Richmond is the highest ranked CAA team.

Sagarin doesn't matter at the FCS level.
* Taken straight from the FCS rulebook*

Team finishes the season ranked 20 or higher in an average of the last regular season media, coaches and/or computer polls (which will be determined by the
committee on an annual basis). For 2010, the media poll will be the Sports
Network Poll, the coaches poll will be the FCS Coaches poll and the computer
poll will be a variation of the Gridiron Power Index – using only the following
computer rankings: The Massey Ratings, Wolfe Rankings, Ashburn Rankings,
Self Rankings and the Laz Index.

The CAA isn't doing so well this year in the computer rankings because of certain CAA school (W&M, Maine, GaState, RI) not taking care of business outside of the conference and some of the teams we did play are sucking beyond belief this year. Richmond is currently #24 in the Massey average ,which includes a lot of those other ratings in it. Richmond is also #20/#23 in the sports network and coaches polls. Richmond last game is William and Mary isn't going to boost them enough in the polls or computers ratings.

Other CAA schools already have a high poll ranking and computers ranking ;in addition, going into their final game against a stronger opponent.

[ITmonarch10]

What is better about VU's resume than Richmond's resume? Is the ODU matchup somehow more valuable than the h2h matchup?

I think if your looking at the at large field and not the conference field then yes. If we are talking about the last spot on the field and it came down to Richmond vs Nova then Richmond has the advantage. Also keep in mind Nova wins the autobid if UNH loses to Towson because they beat ODU.

[WrenFGun]

It's frankly blatant homerism to have Wofford regarded as highly as you do. 7 DI wins; there is IMO less than 30% chance they are in next week.

The only team with 7 DI wins who gets a free pass is Sam (not that I agree with it). I don't expect to see another 7 DI win team in the field non auto, and that includes Wofford, ISU-b, Towson, etc.

[World]

It's frankly blatant homerism to have Wofford regarded as highly as you do. 7 DI wins; there is IMO less than 30% chance they are in next week.

The only team with 7 DI wins who gets a free pass is Sam (not that I agree with it). I don't expect to see another 7 DI win team in the field non auto, and that includes Wofford, ISU-b, Towson, etc.

no 7-win teams will be in

a 10-1 team from an AQ league will be in

[Sam_Kats]

Sam is IN. Book it. Probably a seed. Watch.

[kalm]

Sam is IN. Book it. Probably a seed. Watch.

So seed them ahead of a team from their own conference with a similar SOS who you lost to?

[Sam_Kats]

Again. Watch.

[kalm]

Again. Watch.

Watch what? You guys finish 8-3 with 7 D-1 wins? You're on a role no doubt, but not deserving of a seed. That being said, I sure as **** don't want to face you before the finals.

[Sam_Kats]

I just think the committee will seed this team. Could be wrong - either way, I feel good home or away the way the Kats are playing. I'll say this - I'm excited about the home/home vs. EWU starting next year. Good stuff.

[kalm]

I just think the committee will seed this team. Could be wrong - either way, I feel good home or away the way the Kats are playing. I'll say this - I'm excited about the home/home vs. EWU starting next year. Good stuff.

I am too. Although I wish we weren't also playing Oregon State and Toledo in September.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

ProfessorChaos always seems to put together the most logical & accurate bracket projections... Let's see what his looks like. C'mon, Prof - where are ya?

[Sam_Kats]

I am too. Although I wish we weren't also playing Oregon State and Toledo in September.

That's the boat we're in THIS year. Oh well - hopefully they showed enough to the committee. Hope you make the trip down to Texas in 2013.

[KATS_21]

Give seeds to the 5 best teams and lets get going.

[Appattk]

My take.

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Colonial: New Hampshire
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At Large: Montana State, Northern Arizona, Old Dominion, Villanova, Illinois State, South Dakota St, Georgia Southern, Wofford, Sam Houston State, Stony Brook

Last In: Villanova, Stony Brook, Northern Arizona, Wofford
Last Out: James Madison, Lehigh, Cal Poly

SEEDS:
#1 North Dakota State
#2 Eastern Washington
#3 Montana State
#4 Old Dominion
#5 Sam Houston State

First Round Games

Wofford @ Villanova
Wagner @ Stony Brook
Colgate @ Eastern Illinois
Bethune Cookman @ Coastal Carolina

Bracket I:
Wagner @ Stony Brook winner at No. 1 North Dakota State
Central Arkansas @ Northern Arizona

Bethune Cookman @ Coastal Carolina winner at #4 Old Dominion
South Dakota State @ No. 5 Sam Houston State

Bracket II:
Wofford @ Villanova winner at No. 3 Montana St
New Hampshire @ Appalachian State

Colgate @ Eastern Illinois winner at No. 2 Eastern Washington
Illinois State @ Georgia Southern

[mountaineer in Cane Land]

Thanks for the love for my mountaineers, but there is little hope they get a seed, and to be honest, I don't believe they deserve one. But, they will be the most well rested team in the playoffs, and the most dangerous for the higher seeds, no one is going to want them in their bracket.

[bostonspider]

If you have JMU in the playoffs, then you have them beating ODU, which leads me to think ODU would not get the 4th seed.

[LuckyKat]

Give seeds to the 5 best teams and lets get going.

DITTO
ALL the Mock Brackets haf the Kats at the lowest a 5 seed
the Highest a 2,
So it will be great to see each and every one of you in HUNTSVILLE TEXAS!!!!!

[Professor Chaos]

ProfessorChaos always seems to put together the most logical & accurate bracket projections... Let's see what his looks like. C'mon, Prof - where are ya?
Here's how I see it as the teams stand today. Autobids in CAPS


Winner of BETHUNE-COOKMAN at Northern Arizona
at
(1) NORTH DAKOTA ST

Illinois St
at
Cal Poly

Winner of WAGNER at STONY BROOK
at
(4) Old Dominion

Wofford
at
(5) Sam Houston St

Winner of COLGATE @ Richmond
at
(2) EASTERN WASHINGTON

NEW HAMPSHIRE
at
Georgia Southern


Winner of EASTERN ILLINOIS @ South Dakota St
at
(3) Montana St

CENTRAL ARKANSAS
at
APPALACHIAN ST


Bid by conference: Big Sky - 4, CAA - 3, MVFC - 3, SOCON - 3, Southland - 2, OVC/Patriot/Big South/NEC/MEAC - 1

Last 4 in: Wofford, Northern Arizona, Richmond, South Dakota St
First 4 out: James Madison, Indiana St, Villanova, Lehigh

NOTE: I understand that CCU is in position for the Big South auto-bid before Stony Brook but this projection is how I see it as the teams stand today and Stony Brook has a half game lead in the conference standings currently.

[Go Apps]

Thanks for the love for my mountaineers, but there is little hope they get a seed, and to be honest, I don't believe they deserve one. But, they will be the most well rested team in the playoffs, and the most dangerous for the higher seeds, no one is going to want them in their bracket.

hang tight my friend they will be ranked 8th tomorrow - both GSU and Sam Houston will lose now you are 6 just need Montana to win or ODU/N Hamp to lose and you are wrong... still a chance we get the 4 spot and two games with money to go with it remember we are 8 and2 after you get rid of the ECU loss

[Go Apps]

Here's how I see it as the teams stand today. Autobids in CAPS


Winner of WAGNER at Northern Arizona
at
(1) NORTH DAKOTA ST

Illinois St
at
Cal Poly

Winner of BETHUNE-COOKMAN @ STONY BROOK
at
(4) Old Dominion

Wofford
at
(5) Sam Houston St

Winner of COLGATE at Richmond
at
(2) EASTERN WASHINGTON

NEW HAMPSHIRE
at
Georgia Southern


Winner of EASTERN ILLINOIS @ South Dakota St
at
(3) Montana St

CENTRAL ARKANSAS
at
APPALACHIAN ST


Bid by conference: Big Sky - 4, CAA - 3, MVFC - 3, SOCON - 3, Southland - 2, OVC/Patriot/Big South/NEC/MEAC - 1

Last 4 in: Wofford, Northern Arizona, Richmond, South Dakota St
First 4 out: James Madison, Indiana St, Villanova, Lehigh

NOTE: I understand that CCU is in position for the Big South auto-bid before Stony Brook but this projection is how I see it as the teams stand today and Stony Brook has a half game lead in the conference standings currently.

Ok this bracket makes no sense!

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

If you have JMU in the playoffs, then you have them beating ODU, which leads me to think ODU would not get the 4th seed.

Yes. I think we're one amateur bracketologist short of a circus.

[dudeitsaid]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy and SWAC does not participate Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated. D11 wins are excluded with an **.


1. Bethune Cookman (MEAC)

Outlook: IN/AQ A one bid conference and one of the four above – I think Bethune

2. Appalachian State (8-3, 6-2 Southern)
The Games: Furman

Outlook: IN/AQA last play save secures a win over Furman – ASU tried to give their title away but now grabs the AQ – will be scoreboard watching hoping about 4 teams slip up next week to get a top 4 seed

3. Central Arkansas (7-2, 6-1 Southland)**
The Games: E Ilinois

Outlook:IN/AQ Won the autobid and in the field

4. Eastern Illinois (7-3, 6-1 OVC)
The Games: at C. Arkansas

Outlook: IN/AQ Grabs the AB for the OVC, great game next week a postseason preview

5. Colgate (7-3, 5-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Fordham

Outlook: IN/AQ Grabs the AB and the at large field is even more nervous

6. Wagner (NEC)

Outlook: IN/AQ One bid conference Wagner takes control of a Thanksgiving date

7. North Dakota State (9-1, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: IN at Ill St

Outlook: IN The Bison are back in the drivers seat for the AB things are looking good

8. Montana State (8-1, 6-1 Big Sky)**
The Games: at Montana

Outlook: Battle for the AB and a top seed – but tough task next week

9. Sam Houston State (7-2, 6-1 Southland)**
The Games: at Texas A&M

Outlook: IN They get in the field and are alive for an seed

10. Ga Southern (8-2, 6-2 Southern)
The Games: at Georgia

Outlook: IN GSU is in the field and will lose next week but ASU stole the AB GSU will get Thanksgiving off and will host a 2nd round home game for sure!

11. Old Dominion (9-1, 6-1 CAA not eligible for Conf title)
The Games: at JMU

Outlook: IN Can’t win the AB but are fighting for a top seed they survived this weekend need a win next week

12. Illinois State (8-2, 6-2 MVC)
The Games: NDSU

Outlook: IN An 8 win team out of the MVC gets in!

13. Wofford (7-2, 6-2 Southern)**
The Games: at S. Carolina

Outlook: Avoided a second OT to grab a piece of the title and a Thanksgiving date

14. Coastal Carolina (6-4, 4-1 Big South)
The Games: vs Char Southern

Outlook: A win and a Liberty win puts them in as the AB for the Big South

15. Eastern Washington (8-2, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Port St

Outlook: Almost lost and would have been very interesting needs a win to keep pace with others in conference race

16. New Hampshire (8-2, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson

Outlook: Needs a huge win next week to secure the AB and eliminate Towson

17. South Dakota State (7-3, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: S. Dakota

Outlook: Must win situation and I believe they get it and make the field

18. Liberty (5-5, 4-1 Big South)
The Games: at VMI

Outlook: A win keeps them alive

19. Northern Arizona (7-2, 6-1 Big Sky)**
The Games: Cal Poly

Outlook: Well things changed overnight for NAU they may be in a must win to get in the field

20. Cal Poly (8-2, 6-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at N.Arizona

Outlook: A big statement this weekend but I think still needs a victory next week the loser falls to the bubble

21. Tennessee State (8-2, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: at UT Martin

Outlook: Needs a win next week to stay in the discussion

22. Lehigh 9-1, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Layfayette

Outlook: Things are up in the air for an at large they must win to stay alive

23. Indiana State (7-3, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: at Youngstown St

Outlook: I think they are hoping for a SDST loss and needs a win to stay alive

24. Stoney Brook (9-2, 5-1 Big South)
The Games:

Outlook: A great win over Army keeps them in the discussion but not sure two teams get in from this conference.

25. Villanova (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware

Outlook: Still alive, but must beat the Hens

26. UT Martin (7-2, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Tenn St

Outlook: Just when we thought they were on their way to the playoffs I think Martin could have ended those thoughts – the loser next week is definitely eliminated from the discussion

27. Richmond (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at W&M

Outlook: Still needs a win to get in the discussion

28. Towson (6-4, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at N. Hampshire

Outlook: Needs a victory next week to stay alive – very tough!

29. James Madison (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: ODU

Outlook: Will have to beat ODU next week a tall task

30. Eastern Kentucky (8-3, 6-2 OVC)
The Games:

Outlook: Plays the waiting game but I think they are out

31. Citadel (6-4, 4-3 Southern)
The Games: at Furman

Outlook: Will need one more win but still not enough

32. Samford (6-3, 5-3 Southern)**
The Games: at Kentucky

Outlook: They have to beat Kentucky if they do it still might not be enough


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Colgate CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: Mont State Southland: C. Arkansas
Southern: ASU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune OVC: Eastern Illinois
Big South: Coastal Carolina NEC: Wagner

At-large: Wofford, Illinois State, Sam Houston State, Villanova, N. Arizona, ODU, Tenn State, E. Washington, South Dakota State, GSU

Seeds: ASU, Mont St, NDSU, ODU, Sam Houston State
Last In: Tenn State, Villanova
Last Out: Lehigh, Stoney Brook, Richmond, Indiana State


Bracket I:
S Dakota State @ Tenn State winner at No. 1 NDSU
Illinois State @ E. Illinois

Villanova @ Bethune winner at No. 4 ASU
N Arizona @ No. 5 Sam Houston State

Bracket II:
Wofford @ Coastal Carolina winner at No. 3 ODU
N Hampshire @ GSU

Wagner @ Colgate winner at No. 2 Mont State
E Washington @ C. Arkansas

FYI, EWU is 6-1 in conference. Also, you have them listed at 15, but they should beat Portland State handily. In the 4 potential scenarios that could occur in which they win, in only one scenario do they not get AB, and that IMO is the least likely scenario. It is if both MSU and NAU win as well. NAU has played the weakest conference schedule of the 4 teams tied at the top of the Big Sky, and IMO will be exposed and dismantled by Cal Poly. And with only 7 D1 wins will get left out of the field. Additionally, I think the Brawl of the Wild is one of those incredible rivalry games where records, SOS, trends, or anything else really matters. I can easily see that game going to either team MSU or UM. Not saying EWU won't pull out a cataclysmic fail and fall on their faces against Portland State. PSU has had their number 4 of the last 6 seasons, even when they have been a poor team. Just don't see it happening this Saturday.

[89rabbit]

Sports Network projections:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[FargoBison]

Sports Network projections:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

Sports Network never ceases to amaze me....Colgate, Wagner and SBU are all a bus trip away from each other and yet they are all put on trips requiring a flight. CCU and Wofford are also a bus trip away from each other.

I'll fix what they have done.....

Wagner at Stony Brook(these schools are 70 miles apart!)
Wofford at CCU(These schools are 225 miles apart)
EIU at Cal Poly
Colgate at Bethune-Cookman

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Regionalization has been a part of it since 9/11 - prior to that they used to seed the top 8 but they wanted to keep people on buses the rule is to avoid flights and past the first round anybody can play anyone else


So if 4 Valley teams are in the post season they will all be in the same bracket?

I still doubt it but maybe I'm wrong.

[superman7515]

Sagarin doesn't matter at the FCS level.
* Taken straight from the FCS rulebook*

Team finishes the season ranked 20 or higher in an average of the last regular season media, coaches and/or computer polls (which will be determined by the
committee on an annual basis). For 2010, the media poll will be the Sports
Network Poll, the coaches poll will be the FCS Coaches poll and the computer
poll will be a variation of the Gridiron Power Index – using only the following
computer rankings: The Massey Ratings, Wolfe Rankings, Ashburn Rankings,
Self Rankings and the Laz Index.

You're correct that Sagarin doesn't matter at the FCS level, but neither does the GPI. This is only used for the bridge AQ, the only conference eligible for a bridge AQ is the Pioneer League, and no team in the Pioneer League is eligible this season (it won't matter next season because they'll have an AQ) so none of that matters at all either.

Chat live with Division I Football Championship Committee Chair John McCutcheon (http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/2009-11-18/ncca6)



Jonathan (Charlotte): Could you tell us what factors into determining a seed and what does not factor?
John McCutcheon: That is a great question. The criteria we use to evaluate which teams get the top seeds are the same as those used to determine which teams get an at-large bid. Those are overall won-loss record, strength of schedule and quality of wins. External polls and computer rankings are not factored into our decisions. We also consider the input received by the regional advisory committees.


You also conveniently left off the beginning of the rule you quoted...


6.For those conferences that qualify for automatic qualification but do not receive it, a guaranteed at-large position shall be awarded in any year in which its conference
champion team meets all of the following conditions:
a. Team wins a minimum of eight Division I games during the season;
b. Team wins a minimum of two non-conference games against Division I teams
representing a conference that has earned an automatic qualification in that year;
and
c. Team finishes the season ranked 20 or higher in an average of the last regular season media, coaches and/or computer polls (which will be determined by the committee on an annual basis). For 2010, the media poll will be the Sports Network Poll, the coaches poll will be the FCS Coaches poll and the computer poll will be a variation of the Gridiron Power Index – using only the following computer rankings: The Massey Ratings, Wolfe Rankings, Ashburn Rankings, Self Rankings and the Laz Index.

So as the rule says, that only applies if the conference champion is eligible for the playoffs but not awarded an AQ. Since any CAA team is eligible, it doesn't apply to them at all. The only conference that it matters to is the Pioneer League.

[Professor Chaos]

Ok this bracket makes no sense!
How so?

[walliver]

Sports Network never ceases to amaze me....Colgate, Wagner and SBU are all a bus trip away from each other and yet they are all put on trips requiring a flight. CCU and Wofford are also a bus trip away from each other.

I'll fix what they have done.....

Wagner at Stony Brook(these schools are 70 miles apart!)
Wofford at CCU(These schools are 225 miles apart)
EIU at Cal Poly
Colgate at Bethune-Cookman

That makes sense, but sometimes the committee takes regionalization beyond the first round, and tries to minimize travel in subsequent rounds by guessing who wins in the first round.

In 2007, Wofford won the auto-bid and was sent to Missoula, Montana for the first round.

The next year, the soccer team was sent to Santa Barbara, California for the first round.

[R.A.]

If Tennessee State wins versus Tennessee Martin and goes 9-2, how do you keep them out of the playoffs??

Tennessee State is already a Top 25 team.

Also, Tennessee State has a victory over MEAC Conference Champion, Top 25 team, and 2012 Playoff team Bethune- Cookman.

On top of that, It's a realistic possibility that they could have victories over TWO CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS... Tenn State also defeated Arkansas Pine Bluff of the SWAC. Arkansas Pine Bluff is the SWAC Western Division Champion and is headed to the SWAC Championship game.

Look at Tenn State's losses also-- they had one overtime loss by 3 points and a 20 point 4th quarter collapse versus Murray State at Murray State.

Aside from those two losses, they've been consistent all year and would have 9 FCS wins.

I think it's hard to keep a 9-2 Tennessee State team out of the playoffs. VERY HARD.

[Professor Chaos]

If Tennessee State wins versus Tennessee Martin and goes 9-2, how do you keep them out of the playoffs??

Tennessee State is already a Top 25 team.

Also, Tennessee State has a victory over MEAC Conference Champion, Top 25 team, and 2012 Playoff team Bethune- Cookman.

On top of that, It's a realistic possibility that they could have victories over TWO CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS... Tenn State also defeated Arkansas Pine Bluff of the SWAC. Arkansas Pine Bluff is the SWAC Western Division Champion and is headed to the SWAC Championship game.

Look at Tenn State's losses also-- they had one overtime loss by 3 points and a 20 point 4th quarter collapse versus Murray State at Murray State.

Aside from those two losses, they've been consistent all year and would have 9 FCS wins.

I think it's hard to keep a 9-2 Tennessee State team out of the playoffs. VERY HARD.
Because Stony Brook and Lehigh strengthened the bubble quite a bit last weekend. We'll likely have 3 autobids from outside the top 25 (Colgate, Wagner, and CCU/Liberty). Add to that Eastern Illinois, unless they beat UCA this week, and Bethune-Cookman who will also likely be outside of the top 20 and you need to be in the top 15 to have an argument, and probably more like the top 12 to feel confident about your at large chances. The 9 win Tennessee St debate is the same as the 10 win Lehigh debate. You can shout into the wind all you want to about leaving a 9/10 win team out of the playoffs but what it comes down to is comparing a 9 win Tennessee St or a 10 win Lehigh against a 8 win Cal Poly/Villanova/Illinois St. I think Cal Poly/Villanova/Illinois St win in that comparison.

[R.A.]

Because Stony Brook and Lehigh strengthened the bubble quite a bit last weekend. We'll likely have 3 autobids from outside the top 25 (Colgate, Wagner, and CCU/Liberty). Add to that Eastern Illinois, unless they beat UCA this week, and Bethune-Cookman who will also likely be outside of the top 20 and you need to be in the top 15 to have an argument, and probably more like the top 12 to feel confident about your at large chances. The 9 win Tennessee St debate is the same as the 10 win Lehigh debate. You can shout into the wind all you want to about leaving a 9/10 win team out of the playoffs but what it comes down to is comparing a 9 win Tennessee St or a 10 win Lehigh against a 8 win Cal Poly/Villanova/Illinois St. I think Cal Poly/Villanova/Illinois St win in that comparison.

Well, lets see how it plays out.

How many bids do you think the CAA will get?

[SpeedkingATL]

Under this backet, Sam Houston could potentially play triple option teams Wofford and GaSo back to back. Even if they win both they will have some beat-up or injured defensive linemen and linebackers from all the cut-blocks for 2 consecutive weeks. At least they would be able to practice against it for 2 weeks straight.

[WileECoyote06]

Well, lets see how it plays out.

How many bids do you think the CAA will get?

The CAA is a problem this year. Several conference ratings have them behind the OVC this year; yet they have six teams still playoff eligible. I only think the CAA gets three at most.

[Professor Chaos]

Well, lets see how it plays out.

How many bids do you think the CAA will get?
3 maybe 4. I think Richmond is in the best position to get in after UNH and ODU. Then after that it's Villanova then JMU. All those teams have to win this week and all of them could since they're not playing each other. If they all, along with Towson, win there's going to be some very worthy teams left out, CAA teams not excluded.

[Go Apps]

Fixed tHx

[ysubigred]

Will YSU @ 7-4 make the playoffs??

#11 SOS

7 DI "W"s

1 FBS "W"

All 4 losses to top 25 teams.

Thoughts??...

[Professor Chaos]

Will YSU @ 7-4 make the playoffs??

#11 SOS

7 DI "W"s

1 FBS "W"

All 4 losses to top 25 teams.

Thoughts??...
No, too many other 8, 9, or even 10 win teams will be on the bubble. See my post in the MVFC Playoff Forecast thread for my thoughts in detail but they'd need about every other bubble game in the country to go their way on Saturday.