Cracking the CAA AQ scenarios

[MTfan4life]

This is madness. The CAA auto-bid could come down to a five-way tie after this next weekend, and because of that there are about nine different scenarios that could play out.

Firstly, I found the tiebreaker format in the CAA FB Handbook. Handbook (http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/supportfiles/Handbook/FB/CAAFBHANDBOOKweb.pdf) The format is explained here:


4.03. Tie-Breaking formats.
1. Head-to-head competition. If three-or-more teams are involved in a tie and all have played each
other, the win-loss percentage is computed using each team’s record against the tied teams as a
group rather than individually.
2. Win-loss percentage versus the highest-placed common opponents and proceeding down. When
arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied
teams as a group rather than individually.
3. Jeff Sagarin “ELO_CHESS” computation. (Located on USAToday.com & Sagarin ratings page)

I found nine different scenarios that could take place.

1. UNH wins this weekend. New Hampshire wins the auto-bid and conference title outright.

2. JMU, Rich, Vill, UNH, & Tow all finish 6-2. No common across the board opponent among the five. However, all teams played ODU. JMU will have beated ODU in this scenario and Vill also holds a win over ODU. Vill holds the head to head over JMU. Villanova wins the auto-bid.

3. Vill, Rich, UNH, & Tow all finish 6-2: All teams played ODU. Villanova wins the auto-bid.

4. Vill, JMU, UNH, & Tow all finish 6-2: Same as scenario 2. Villanova wins the auto bid.

5. Vill, UNH, & Tow all finish 6-2: Tow 2-0 vs. UNH and Vill. Towson wins the auto bid. (Probable correction, even though Towson would be 2-0 against UNH and Vill, because Vill and UNH haven't played, they may not be able to use head to head) In that scenario Villanova would win the auto bid for their win over ODU.

6. UNH & Tow finish 6-2: Tow owns head to head. Towson wins the auto-bid.

7. JMU, Rich, UNH, & Tow all finish 6-2: All played ODU. James Madison wins the auto bid.

8. JMU, UNH, & Tow all finish 6-2: All played ODU. James Madison wins the auto bid.

9. Rich, UNH, & Tow all finish 6-2: No common opponents that would break tiebreaker. Goes to Sagarin ELO-Chess Ranking. Current ratings have UNH at 58.44, Rich at 56.97, and Tow at 55.00. However, under this, Tow would have beaten UNH, so those are bound to change.

I'm pretty sure I have this understood correctly. Let me know if you know of another scenario or correction to my interpretation. All in all, it's going to be a crazy finish if Towson pulls out a win against New Hampshire.

[caribbeanhen]

that looks like lots of work....just like watching the Hens

[HailSzczur]

Wow I like how often Nova comes up as the winner in those scenarios. Let's go Towson. A Towson victory and we control our own destiny, I like it. And it's perfect, they play at noon and the battle off the Blue is at 3:30

[MTfan4life]

Wow I like how often Nova comes up as the winner in those scenarios. Let's go Towson. A Towson victory and we control our own destiny, I like it. And it's perfect, they play at noon and the battle off the Blue is at 3:30

Not if both Richmond and JMU lose. You need Richmond and Towson to win.

[melloware13]

If Towson beats UNH, then JMU fans will have to become big time Delaware fans. Unfortunately there would probably be more JMU converts than there will be UD fans at the Battle of the Blue

[WrenFGun]

I'm really hoping UNH can just win, instead.

[MTfan4life]

I'm really hoping UNH can just win, instead.

That would definitely make everything easier. I was surprised that Richmond doesn't really have a chance in any of the scenarios except maybe the final one. It's also interesting seeing that so many CAA fans will have to become fans of a couple other schools next Saturday. Everyone will be cheering for Towson. If they win, Villanova will want Richmond to win. James Madison needs Delaware to beat Villanova. Towson needs ODU to beat JMU and W&M to beat Richmond. Richmond needs Villanova and JMU to lose and they also will hope that every team they played in non-conference games win to boost their sagarin elo rating. Crazy stuff.

[ODUalum78]

Well done!

[Drblankstare]

I thought the valley was tight this year, I'm cross eyed after reading the scenarios in the CAA

[Mr. C]

Finally someone has made sense of the CAA mess. Many thanks. I couldn't get a straight answer from anyone yesterday.

[Mr. C]

Just think, it could have been a six-way tie if Old Dominion was eligible.

[Mr. C]

BTW, I've officially asked the CAA if your scenarios are indeed correct. It will be interesting to hear what they say.

[MTfan4life]

BTW, I've officially asked the CAA if your scenarios are indeed correct. It will be interesting to hear what they say.

It really helped that Old Dominion had played all of the teams involved. That is the only common opponent among all five teams still involved whom at least one of them had lost to. I'd be pretty surprised if my understanding was incorrect. The main reason head to head never works is because New Hampshire didn't play both Villanova and JMU and Towson didn't play Richmond. All scenarios include both Towson and UNH, so the head to head should only come to play in the Towson/Villanova/UNH scenario. I hope I read into things correctly, at least. haha

[Mr. C]

No offense to New Hampshire, but the Wildcats really had the easiest schedule. I hate unbalanced schedules in football.

[URMite]

Yes, we are looking for:

Richmond
Towson
ODU
Delaware

To all win, then UVA's win over Miami yesterday may give us the AQ. Before that we would lose the chess game to Towson. We would have had a shorter path if JMU had won yesterday. I started looking at these scenarios after LFN's article last week.

[Mr. C]

I'm really hoping UNH can just win, instead.

In reality, the best thing you have going for you is location. Towson is a tough matchup in a lot of ways for New Hampshire, particularly when the Tigers are on offense. Wish I could be there on Saturday after seeing last year's shootout in person. It was a very fun game. Forcing turnovers will be the key to whether UNH wins, or loses. Towson hasn't had a turnover in two weeks and has piled up 90 points as a result.

[Mr. C]

It really helped that Old Dominion had played all of the teams involved. That is the only common opponent among all five teams still involved whom at least one of them had lost to. I'd be pretty surprised if my understanding was incorrect. The main reason head to head never works is because New Hampshire didn't play both Villanova and JMU and Towson didn't play Richmond. All scenarios include both Towson and UNH, so the head to head should only come to play in the Towson/Villanova/UNH scenario. I hope I read into things correctly, at least. haha

ODU can't win the title, or the auto bid, but it can decide who wins the automatic berth. Real weird.

[ITmonarch10]

No offense to New Hampshire, but the Wildcats really had the easiest schedule. I hate unbalanced schedules in football.

UNH really need to win out or they might be that 8-3 CAA team sitting at home. It also sucks to be Richmond because they have no shot at the AQ. Its great to be ODU, even with a loss to JMU, we would still have a strong enough GPI and Poll ranking to make the playoffs.

[ODUalum78]

....and that's jist for the AQ. Look at the headache for the committee if 5 CAA teams end up 8-3 or better and another (Towson) is at 7-4

[ITmonarch10]

....and that's jist for the AQ. Look at the headache for the committee if 5 CAA teams end up 8-3 or better and another (Towson) is at 7-4

The sad part is Towson is probably better than most of the 8-3 CAA teams.

[Mr. C]

....and that's jist for the AQ. Look at the headache for the committee if 5 CAA teams end up 8-3 or better and another (Towson) is at 7-4

Towson would be 7-2 in the committee's eyes and would probably gets props for a quality loss that doesn't count to LSU (38-22 and about four or five plays from being a nailbiter). The Tigers' two FCS losses are to top-10 teams and the two FBS losses are to quality teams. LSU almost beat Alabama and Kent State is leading the MAC.

[Mr. C]

The sad part is Towson is probably better than most of the 8-3 CAA teams.

Towson is the one team probably most schools who do make the playoffs would not want to play early. The Tigers are just starting to hit their stride since that ODU game. I doubt that JMU, or ODU would want to face them again.

[CHIP72]

I appreciate the scenario breakdown.

The real question to me is what happens playoff-wise to the various teams if they win or lose their final game. I think both Towson and Villanova are out if they lose their respective games, and James Madison is skating on thin ice if they lose their game. I haven't looked at Richmond's schedule as closely but I'm guessing they are in the same boat as JMU. Some teams, particularly Villanova, probably can't feel entirely comfortable even if they win unless they get the auto-bid.

[URMite]

UNH really need to win out or they might be that 8-3 CAA team sitting at home. It also sucks to be Richmond because they have no shot at the AQ. Its great to be ODU, even with a loss to JMU, we would still have a strong enough GPI and Poll ranking to make the playoffs.
Look at my post. Long shot but not impossible. UVA over UNC this week might even help.

[Mr. C]

I appreciate the scenario breakdown.

The real question to me is what happens playoff-wise to the various teams if they win or lose their final game. I think both Towson and Villanova are out if they lose their respective games, and James Madison is skating on thin ice if they lose their game. I haven't looked at Richmond's schedule as closely but I'm guessing they are in the same boat as JMU. Some teams, particularly Villanova, probably can't feel entirely comfortable even if they win unless they get the auto-bid.

Towson would be out with a loss and only six wins. Villanova would be clearly on the bubble, depending on what happened around the country. Remember also, Villanova would be 8-2 with the committee if the Wildcats beat Delaware. That FBS loss to Temple gets thrown out. Villanova gets in with a win in my estimation. Few teams are safe when you lose that final game.

[CHIP72]

The sad part is Towson is probably better than most of the 8-3 CAA teams.

I think Towson is better than Villanova, based on what I saw at Villanova Stadium on October 27th. Ironically, I think Villanova is better than the majority of the other CAA teams also in the running for a playoff spot. Of course, they need to take care of business in Newark next Saturday.

[HailSzczur]

Towson would be out with a loss and only six wins. Villanova would be clearly on the bubble, depending on what happened around the country. Remember also, Villanova would be 8-2 with the committee if the Wildcats beat Delaware. That FBS loss to Temple gets thrown out. Villanova gets in with a win in my estimation. Few teams are safe when you lose that final game.

8-2 in the FCS with decisive wins against Top 10 ODU and JMU. ODU will finish Top 5 at this rate, who know's where JMU ends up, but they were top 10 at the time. Penn winning the Ivy yesterday helps as a resume booster too. Both our losses are against Top 25 teams. As long as we beat Delaware I can't see any glaring reasons to keep the Cats out.

[URMite]

Towson would be out with a loss and only six wins. Villanova would be clearly on the bubble, depending on what happened around the country. Remember also, Villanova would be 8-2 with the committee if the Wildcats beat Delaware. That FBS loss to Temple gets thrown out. Villanova gets in with a win in my estimation. Few teams are safe when you lose that final game.
I was going to ask about that. Your last post sounded like FBS losses don't count for Towson but do for everyone else. I know that isn't what you meant. The UR/VU resume looks interesting without the FBS loss or mediocre wins. VU>ODU>UR
UR>VU TU>VU UNH>UR

If UNH>TU then ???

[ODUsmitty]

Great thread. If ODU and UNH are fortunate enough to end up 7-1, then ODU fans can claim the "mythical" CAA championship due to our head to head win over UNH. Understanding no auto-bid is available, it would be a great source of pride to come out on top of the league that, quite frankly, has treated us rather poorly since our announcement to move to CUSA.

Tough situation for many CAA teams. UR coming on strong. Towson playing well and overcoming a tough OOC schedule. JMU schizophrenic and never know what to expect (although we will get their best shot on Saturday). However, just from this fan's view, Nova is a team that has clawed their way into contention with the lopsided wins over ODU and JMU. Talley can coach, and they have the line play to be a real problem in the playoffs....I wish them well, hopefully on the other side of the bracket!

[Mr. C]

I was going to ask about that. Your last post sounded like FBS losses don't count for Towson but do for everyone else. I know that isn't what you meant. The UR/VU resume looks interesting without the FBS loss or mediocre wins. VU>ODU>UR
UR>VU TU>VU UNH>UR

If UNH>TU then ???

No, it is just that FBS can usually only help you and not really hurt you. Not many teams had the opportunity to play someone of LSU's caliber and then made a game of it.

[TSU86]

Great Job, many thanks, and GO TIGERS !!!!!!!!!!!
If we make it in, I think we can make some noise.

[VUCats02]

I think Towson is better than Villanova, based on what I saw at Villanova Stadium on October 27th. Ironically, I think Villanova is better than the majority of the other CAA teams also in the running for a playoff spot. Of course, they need to take care of business in Newark next Saturday.

You're basing this off one game? What you saw on Oct 27th was Nova's worst game of the year...and it was still a close game...

I will not be holding my breath if Nova beats Delaware but doesn't win the autobid.

[DJnva]

As a quick aside, the ODU administration has said that if ODU wins the "mythical" CAA title, they will get the student-athletes rings, like the CAA normally provides.

Also, they are doing this for all sports at the school this year.

[HailSzczur]

You're basing this off one game? What you saw on Oct 27th was Nova's worst game of the year...and it was still a close game...

I will not be holding my breath if Nova beats Delaware but doesn't win the autobid.

Young team, we're capable of having an off game like Towson or Richmond. You're right, it's not an accurate representation of how good the team is.

[JMUNJ08]

For JMU, I think this week is real simple: WIN & IN; Lose & welcome to Crapsville...

No team from the CAA makes it this year at 7-4 besides Towson but they will need some help...

[mcveyrl]

For JMU, I think this week is real simple: WIN & IN; Lose & welcome to Crapsville...

No team from the CAA makes it this year at 7-4 besides Towson but they will need some help...

I'm not as optimistic. If we win (big if) and UR and Nova win, we'll all be 8-3 with losses to UR and Nova. Plus, our best win is the same ad Nova's, so I think they definitely get in before us. And, I don't think we have a strong enough resume to overcome the head to head loss to UR. So, in that scenario we're the fifth man on the totem pole...not a great position to be in for this year's CAA.

[NHwildEcat]

I'm really hoping UNH can just win, instead.

Makes life simpler for all, right? :)

[ODUalum78]

Says a lot about ODU. xrotatehx
We have some serious issues on defense, but we are improving.
We have played 5 ranked FCS (UD at the time) teams. JMU will be 6. That is a serious "gauntlet" of a schedule by any measure.

On Villanova.
VU is a young team in a rebuilding mode, so they are apt to have lapses and make mistakes.
That said, they have as dominating an offensive line as there is in the FCS; FBS caliber, and the best tactical coach in the FCS.
'Nova can only get better with time.

[Nova09]

MTfan, thanks for putting this together, but I don't think #5 is correct. In that scenario you give it to Towson for beating both of the teams they are tied with, but the first tiebreaker says if all tied teams have played each other, not if one of the tied teams has defeated all others. So I think it would go to tiebreaker two, and Villanova would have been the only one to have beaten ODU. I could be wrong, but that's how I interpret it. Hopefully Mr. C gets an official response from the CAA.

[MTfan4life]

MTfan, thanks for putting this together, but I don't think #5 is correct. In that scenario you give it to Towson for beating both of the teams they are tied with, but the first tiebreaker says if all tied teams have played each other, not if one of the tied teams has defeated all others. So I think it would go to tiebreaker two, and Villanova would have been the only one to have beaten ODU. I could be wrong, but that's how I interpret it. Hopefully Mr. C gets an official response from the CAA.

My thought from that would be because Towson beat both Villanova and New Hampshire, even if Vill and UNH had the chance to play each other, they wouldn't be able to catch up to a 2-0 Towson. You could be right, but why punish Towson for beating the other two teams in the tie just because those teams hadn't played each other.

[JMUNJ08]

I'm not as optimistic. If we win (big if) and UR and Nova win, we'll all be 8-3 with losses to UR and Nova. Plus, our best win is the same ad Nova's, so I think they definitely get in before us. And, I don't think we have a strong enough resume to overcome the head to head loss to UR. So, in that scenario we're the fifth man on the totem pole...not a great position to be in for this year's CAA.

Just trying to be an optomistic fan! I agree though, if the perfect storm of 6 teams (5 eligible) are 6-2, I think we are over UNH and Towson at minimum. That puts us maybe running fourth but the CAA should be wary of getting the lions share of At Large bids compared to prior years. Only thing we would have going for us is a top 5 win to end the season. The committee loves how teams wrap up the season. I think the upper crust is crazy good with lots of parity but that will ultimately leave some good 8-3/ 7-4 teams at home.

[Anovafan]

Just got this:

Subject: 2012 CAA Football Tiebreaker Scenarios



The final week of regular-season CAA Football play on Nov. 17 features five conference games, and a wide range of tiebreaker scenarios play a role in determining the league's automatic NCAA bid. These scenarios are listed below. Please see the attached PDF for additional details.



CAA Football Automatic NCAA Bid Tiebreaker Scenarios - Nov. 13, 2012

Maine at Rhode Island; Towson at New Hampshire; Richmond at William and Mary; Villanova at Delaware; Old Dominion at James Madison



1. New Hampshire clinches automatic bid with a victory over Towson.

2. The 16 scenarios below will be used if New Hampshire loses to Towson.

3. CAA Football’s final tiebreaker involves the application of Jeff Sagarin’s ELO_CHESS variance. Sagarin’s rankings will not be released until after all Division I Football games have gone final Saturday (approximately 1 a.m. ET, Sunday). The selection committee requires an automatic bid designation prior to Sunday, forcing the league to use the Nov. 11 ELO_CHESS variance (see attached listings).



Scenario 1 & 2

ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW, UR, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent…versus ODU (7-1): UNH 0-1, UR 0-1, TOW 0-1, NOVA 1-0 --- NOVA is autobid.



Scenario 3 & 4

ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- TOW is 2-0 versus all tied teams, UNH did not face NOVA but a win for either would make them 1-1 in the group…still not a better winning percentage than TOW in the scenario --- TOW is autobid.



Scenario 5 & 10

JMU, UNH, ODU, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (see attached): ODU 122, UNH 137, TOW 157, JMU 161 --- UNH is autobid as ODU is not eligible for autobid.



Scenario 6 & 15

JMU, UNH, ODU, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (see attached): ODU 122, UNH 137, NOVA 153, TOW 157, JMU 161 --- UNH is autobid as ODU is not eligible for autobid.



Scenario 7 & 11

JMU, UNH, ODU, UR, TOW, NOVA all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS…ELO_CHESS rating (see attached): ODU 122, UNH 137, UR 147, NOVA 153, TOW 157, JMU 161 --- UNH is autobid as ODU is not eligible for autobid.



Scenario 8 & 9

JMU, UNH, ODU, UR, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent does not exist; ELO_CHESS… ELO_CHESS rating (see attached): ODU 122, UNH 137, UR 147, TOW 157, JMU 161 --- UNH is autobid as ODU is not eligible for autobid.



Scenario 12 & 13

ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, TOW both 6-2 -- TOW beat UNH head-to-head --- TOW is autobid.



Scenario 14 & 16

ODU ineligible at 7-1, UNH, UR, TOW all 6-2 -- All tied teams have not faced each other; highest common opponent; ELO_CHESS…versus ODU (7-1): UNH 0-1, UR 0-1, TOW 0-1; versus DEL (3-5): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; versus WM (1-7): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; versus URI (0-8): UNH 1-0, UR 1-0, TOW 1-0; ELO_CHESS rating (see attached): UNH 137, UR 147, TOW 157 --- UNH is autobid.





JEFF SAGARIN RATINGS BY CONFERENCE -- NOV. 11, 2012

*ELO_CHESS VARIANCE IN PARENTHESES



122 - Old Dominion (60.43)

137 - New Hampshire (58.44)

147 - Richmond (56.97)

153 - Villanova (55.77)

157 - Towson (55.00)

161 - James Madison (54.18)

185 - Maine (45.53)

188 - Delaware (43.84)

215 - William and Mary (37.59)

234 - Georgia State (31.72)

241 - Rhode Island (23.43)

[Pitz]

Oh sure, using week-old rankings makes perfect sense. I've seen some curious tiebreakers across the conferences, but this one has got to take the head-scratching cake.

[andy7171]

Wow! This weekends game is going to be awesome! Great work everyone on this thread!

[MTfan4life]

That's some awful BS that the league would use week old ratings to decide the auto bid, especially considering New Hampshire would definitely drop in the ratings after a loss to Towson!

Also, it doesn't make sense that they would place ODU in all the 6-2 tiebreakers and therefore nullifying the chance to use the fact that every tied team would have played them to break up the tiebreaker. The CAA is NOT doing things correctly here, IMO.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

That's some awful BS that the league would use week old ratings to decide the auto bid, especially considering New Hampshire would definitely drop in the ratings after a loss to Towson!

Also, it doesn't make sense that they would place ODU in all the 6-2 tiebreakers and therefore nullifying the chance to use the fact that every tied team would have played them to break up the tiebreaker. The CAA is NOT doing things correctly here, IMO.

I'm guessing the updated ratings won't be available in time to be used. Which of course begs the question, why would any of these ratings be used?

[Mattymc727]

So if UNH loses, yet JMU wins, UNH is the autobid no matter what? I agree, CAA isnt doing it right in that scenario

[FargoBison]

I'm guessing the updated ratings won't be available in time to be used. Which of course begs the question, why would any of these ratings be used?

Well the MVFC uses GPI which isn't any better. At least there is chance you get Sagarin's updated rankings, the MVFC has zero shot at getting an updated GPI.

[Mattymc727]

Another explanation...http://hamptonroads.com/2012/11/jmu-richmond-cant-win-caa-football-title

[HailSzczur]

What conference is it that grants the Auto Bid to the team who has been out of the playoffs the longest? That has to be the worst tie breaker scenario.

[ODUalum78]

Fortunately, the chances of getting to Sagarin are minimal.
GPI is almost as bad.
I would be more confortable if they used Massey, however.