Big Sky Predictions 11-10

[JALMOND]

So far for the year I'm at 58-19 and still looking for one perfect week this year. Montana, North Dakota and Sacramento State all entertain byes this weekend and with the rivalry week coming up next week, this may be my last chance for an "easy" try. Here are my predictions for this weekend. All are my opinion only.

ISU at CP---The Mustangs are going to try to impress the committee which may be hard to do as they are on a two game losing streak. What better way to halt a losing streak than to host the Bengals who have made many teams healthy this year. They should also make the Mustangs happy, too...CP 55, ISU 13.

UNC at WSU---The Wildcats played Montana tough before succumbing to a defeat in the fourth quarter. The Bears rallied at Portland State for an impressive, hard-fought road win. It'll be interesting to see if the Bears can do it again, or will the Wildcats let them...WSU 28, UNC 25.

PSU at MSU---The Bobcats recovered just in time to push aside an upset bid at Sacramento State last week. Now they return home to face the Vikings, who had to watch Northern Colorado come storming back in the second half to steal a win. Just a mild bump for the Bobcats...MSU 34, PSU 17.

SUU at NAU---The Thunderbirds whirlwind tour their first year in the Big Sky comes to a close this weekend without any sense of consistency. They lose to Weber State, then beat Eastern Washington, then lose at North Dakota last week. This week they are due for a win, but have to go to Northern Arizona, who came up big at Idaho State last week. Can the Thunderbirds go out a winner? No...NAU 45, SUU 41.

UCD at EWU---The Eagles appear to have shrugged off their perplexing loss at Southern Utah by routing Cal Poly at home. This week, the Aggies come to town after taking last week off to regroup and refocus for their last two games. But the Eagles are tuning up for the playoffs...EWU 38, UCD 12.

[Lumberjackfanbefore2012]

No way SUU scores 41 on that tough NAU defense.

[darell1976]

I picked all the home teams including a 56-49 win for UND over Bye. I am 63-14 tied for 8th place in the Big Sky Challenge.

[wapiti]

ISU 9 at CP 58---CP has an easy game to end the 2 game L streak. This should put CP at 8 div 1 wins, with one of those being over a FBS. I think this will put CP in the playoffs.

UNC 20 at WSU 28---This is a tough one to pick. NC played NAU close and beat PSU on the road. While the BBQ has been showing improvement nearly every week this season and beat SUU on the road. So I will pick the home team to win.

PSU 32 at MSU 42 ---PSU's offense racks up numbers, but not enough points. While MSU's defense makes up for some turnover mistakes takes the W. This should put MSU at 8 Div 1 wins and into the playoffs.

SUU 24 at NAU 28---After an up and down season SUU ends its disappointing season with a loss on the road. Since 2005 NAU is 4 - 1 against SUU, with three of those game by 3 points, one by 5 and one by 20. This game too should be close, but NAU's home field advantage prevails and this puts NAU at 8 Div 1 wins and into the playoffs.

UCD 17 at EWU 35--- I see EWU cruising to an easy win at home and playing some 2nd stringers in the 4th quarter. This should put EWU at 8 Div 1 wins and into the playoffs.

[UNDBIZ]

At 64-13 and tied for 2nd in the Big Sky Challenge, I've got:

Cal Poly
Northern Colorado
Montana St
Northern Arizona
Eastern Washington

[JALMOND]

So far for the year I'm at 58-19 and still looking for one perfect week this year. Montana, North Dakota and Sacramento State all entertain byes this weekend and with the rivalry week coming up next week, this may be my last chance for an "easy" try. Here are my predictions for this weekend. All are my opinion only.

ISU at CP---The Mustangs are going to try to impress the committee which may be hard to do as they are on a two game losing streak. What better way to halt a losing streak than to host the Bengals who have made many teams healthy this year. They should also make the Mustangs happy, too...CP 55, ISU 13.

UNC at WSU---The Wildcats played Montana tough before succumbing to a defeat in the fourth quarter. The Bears rallied at Portland State for an impressive, hard-fought road win. It'll be interesting to see if the Bears can do it again, or will the Wildcats let them...WSU 28, UNC 25.

PSU at MSU---The Bobcats recovered just in time to push aside an upset bid at Sacramento State last week. Now they return home to face the Vikings, who had to watch Northern Colorado come storming back in the second half to steal a win. Just a mild bump for the Bobcats...MSU 34, PSU 17.

SUU at NAU---The Thunderbirds whirlwind tour their first year in the Big Sky comes to a close this weekend without any sense of consistency. They lose to Weber State, then beat Eastern Washington, then lose at North Dakota last week. This week they are due for a win, but have to go to Northern Arizona, who came up big at Idaho State last week. Can the Thunderbirds go out a winner? No...NAU 45, SUU 41.

UCD at EWU---The Eagles appear to have shrugged off their perplexing loss at Southern Utah by routing Cal Poly at home. This week, the Aggies come to town after taking last week off to regroup and refocus for their last two games. But the Eagles are tuning up for the playoffs...EWU 38, UCD 12.

3-2 this week, 61-21 for the year. Thought about taking Southern Utah against Northern Arizona but didn't. No guts, no glory.

[tingly]

[ignore this whole post, see subsequent posts]

I've got these as the automatic qualifiers with the relevant games being EWU at Portland State, MSU at Montana, Cal Poly at NAU.

- NAU wins, EWU/MSU lose — NAU outright
- Cal Poly wins, EWU/MSU lose — Cal Poly outright
- NAU/MSU win, EWU loses — MSU from record vs. common conference-scheduled opponents (specifically, vs. Southern Utah)
- NAU/EWU win, MSU loses —Sagarin tiebreaker for NAU/EWU/MSU, coin flip if tied
- Cal Poly/EWU win, MSU loses — EWU from head-to-head vs. Cal Poly
- Cal Poly/MSU win, EWU loses — MSU from record vs. common conference-scheduled opponents (specifically, vs. Sacramento State)
- NAU, EWU, MSU win — EWU from record vs. common conference-scheduled opponents (specifically, vs. Southern Utah)
- Cal Poly, EWU, MSU win — Sagarin tiebreaker for EWU/MSU, coin flip if tied. (Poly is out from common conference-scheduled opponents, specifically, vs. Sacramento State)

Before today, Sagarin was EWU 65.23 (lost), MSU 64.20 (won), NAU 63.39 (won in OT), so an MSU win ought to all but cinch the AQ.

[Catbooster]

Nice job, but I think you made a couple typos

I've got these as the automatic qualifiers with the relevant games being EWU at Portland State, MSU at Montana, Cal Poly at NAU.

- NAU wins, EWU/MSU lose — NAU outright
- Cal Poly wins, EWU/MSU lose — Cal Poly outright
- NAU/MSU win, EWU loses — MSU from record vs. common conference-scheduled opponents (specifically, vs. Southern Utah)
- NAU/EWU win, MSU loses —Sagarin tiebreaker for NAU/EWU/MSU, coin flip if tied MSU would be out, not in the tie-breaker
- Cal Poly/EWU win, MSU loses — EWU from head-to-head vs. Cal Poly
- Cal Poly/MSU win, EWU loses — MSU from record vs. common conference-scheduled opponents (specifically, vs. Sacramento State)
- NAU, EWU, MSU win — EWU from record vs. common conference-scheduled opponents (specifically, vs. Southern Utah)MSU, not EWU
- Cal Poly, EWU, MSU win — Sagarin tiebreaker for EWU/MSU, coin flip if tied. (Poly is out from common conference-scheduled opponents, specifically, vs. Sacramento State)

Before today, Sagarin was EWU 65.23 (lost), MSU 64.20 (won), NAU 63.39 (won in OT), so an MSU win ought to all but cinch the AQ.

[dudeitsaid]

-

Before today, Sagarin was EWU 65.23 (lost), MSU 64.20 (won), NAU 63.39 (won in OT), so an MSU win ought to all but cinch the AQ.

Also, EWU won today.

[dudeitsaid]

[QUOTE=The Big Sky’s automatic bid to the FCS playoffs is still up for grabs. It would go to the Cal Poly/Northern Arizona winner if EWU and MSU both lose.

If MSU, EWU and Cal Poly tie at 7-1, the automatic bid would go to Eastern Washington. All three teams would have played Sacramento State in league games. Cal Poly would be eliminated because of a loss to the Hornets. MSU and EWU both beat Sac State, so the tiebreaker would revert to the head-to-head meeting between MSU and EWU, which the Eagles won.

If MSU, EWU and NAU tie at 7-1, the automatic bid would go to Montana State. All three teams would have played Southern Utah, and Montana State is the only one of the three to have a win over the Thunderbirds.

If EWU and Cal Poly tie at 7-1, EWU would get the automatic bid because of a head-to-head win over the Mustangs.

If MSU and Cal Poly tie at 7-1, MSU would get automatic win because of its win over Sacramento State.

If MSU and NAU tie at 7-1, MSU would get the automatic bid because of the Bobcats’ win over
Southern Utah.

If EWU and NAU tie at 7-1, the highest team in the Sagarin Rating would determine the automatic bid..[/QUOTE]


From the Big Sky Conference web site.

[tingly]

Oh man, I should have just copied/pasted my original instead of changing it around. Thanks. The tiebreak rules that Big Sky has been publishing didn't say to revert to head-to-head after a team is eliminated which is why I had that one wrong. The rest was my fault. To finish correcting, NAU lost in OT, not won. I'm going to have an easy transition into senility.

The updated Sagarin is EWU by 3.60 over NAU, so EWU should win that tiebreak. But, it's probably going to be one of the 3-ways.

Pretending that EWU wins the Sagarin tiebreaker over NAU:
- if EWU wins, they need MSU to lose and/or Cal Poly to win.
- if MSU wins, they need EWU to lose and/or NAU to win.
- the Cal Poly@NAU winner needs EWU and MSU to lose.