Playoff Projections

[atlfcsfan]

Here are just a rough draft of how I see things going into the final 2 weeks. Of course, this is 1 persons perspective and is not taking into account any possible upsets which are likely to happen.


Auto Bids

BIG SKY - NO ARIZONA
BIG SOUTH - STONY BROOK
CAA - NEW HAMPSHIRE
MVC - N DAKOTA STATE
MEAC - BETHUNE COOKMAN
NEAST - WAGNER
OVC - TENN MARTIN
PATRIOT - LEHIGH
SO CON - APP STATE
SLC - C ARKANSAS

AT LARGE

PROBABLES (WIN LIKELY THIS WEEK AND CEMENT SPOT)

GA SOUTHERN
E WASHINGTON
MONTANA STATE
OLD DOMINION
JAMES MADISON
SAM HOUSTON ST


THAT LEAVES 4 SLOTS FOR THESE TEAMS AND THEIR PROJECTED RECORD

RICHMOND 8-3
S DAK ST 8-3
ILL STATE 8-3
IND STATE 8-3
TENN ST 8-3
WOFFORD 8-3
CAL POLY 8-3
VILLANOVA 7-4
ALBANY 9-2
E KENTUCKY 8-3

Anybody else I leave out? I know some teams are going to say they have a shot at 7-4, but I mean realistically? again Im not counting teams who would have to pull major upsets to get in.

[Engineer86]

Eastern Ill with a win over UCA is a possibility. Also with a Colgate win over Lehigh, they get the AQ, and Lehigh could be sitting there at 10-1 for at a large consideration. Not really part of what you are trying to lay out, but it could take up one more at large birth.

[URMite]

I was going to ask if EIU over UCA was a major upset. Plus Tenn St is 8-2 and plays UTM who is 7-2 (could be 8-2 by game time, I think?).

[Engineer86]

I was going to ask if EIU over UCA was a major upset. Plus Tenn St is 8-2 and plays UTM who is 7-2.

Fair question, since I am high on EIU, my answer is no

[atlfcsfan]

Eastern Ill with a win over UCA is a possibility. Also with a Colgate win over Lehigh, they get the AQ, and Lehigh could be sitting there at 10-1 for at a large consideration. Not really part of what you are trying to lay out, but it could take up one more at large birth.

Colgate would simply replace Lehigh in the field I think. Lehigh doesnt make it I dont think, they had a lot of close calls in a weak conference.
E ILL would be back in the field if they pulled it off against C Arkansas. I assuming the home teams would win in both circumstances though.

[Engineer86]

Colgate would simply replace Lehigh in the field I think. Lehigh doesnt make it I dont think, they had a lot of close calls in a weak conference.
E ILL would be back in the field if they pulled it off against C Arkansas. I assuming the home teams would win in both circumstances though.

Name one 10 win team that has not made the playoffs.xcoffeex .... Want happen here either

[BEAR]

Fair question, since I am high on UCA, my answer is yes. xcoffeex

[atlfcsfan]

Name one 10 win team that has not made the playoffs.xcoffeex .... Want happen here either

first time for everything. plus this is an unusual year to say the least.

17-14 vs princeton, 28-26 vs liberty, 34-31 vs fordham, 17-14 vs georgetown, 36-35 vs holy cross?

those are some very impressive wins for them. And who would they keep out of the playoffs? 8-3 richmond?

Trust me, they best win next week. I wouldnt bet on them getting in.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

first time for everything. plus this is an unusual year to say the least.

17-14 vs princeton, 28-26 vs liberty, 34-31 vs fordham, 17-14 vs georgetown, 36-35 vs holy cross?

those are some very impressive wins for them. And who would they keep out of the playoffs? 8-3 richmond?

Trust me, they best win next week. I wouldnt bet on them getting in.

You honestly think the committee cares about close wins?

[Engineer86]

A 10 win team is an absolute lock. The only worry about losing this week is that then a second loss could knock them out. I do not think a 9-2 PL has ever been left out.

[atlfcsfan]

You honestly think the committee cares about close wins?

IF you are from one of the lesser conferences and you dont win your autobid they will look at you more closely.

So if the last spot comes down to Lehigh and 8-3 Richmond or any 8-3 CAA team, you think they would get in over them?

[superman7515]

Name one 10 win team that has not made the playoffs.xcoffeex .... Want happen here either

Cal Poly

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

IF you are from one of the lesser conferences and you dont win your autobid they will look at you more closely.

So if the last spot comes down to Lehigh and 8-3 Richmond or any 8-3 CAA team, you think they would get in over them?

Yes.

The PL is not frowned upon to the people that matter. I actually think the PL's focus on only D1 games helps them.

[Saint3333]

Add lLiberty to that list.

10 wins in some conferences < 8 wins in others.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Add lLiberty to that list.

10 wins in some conferences < 8 wins in others.

He said auto bid conference.

[superman7515]

He said auto bid conference.

No he didn't. I quoted what he said, name one 10 win team that didn't make the playoffs. There are plenty of them, but I only named one.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

No he didn't. I quoted what he said, name one 10 win team that didn't make the playoffs. There are plenty of them, but I only named one.

My bad, LU11 said it in the Wofford thread. Either way, auto bid....

[MTfan4life]

My favorite part of playoff projection time is the amount of experts that step forward. I didn't know so many people on this website were on the committee or at least knew their thought processes. Every where I look I see someone saying "This team WILL NOT get a seed." or "If this team loses the auto bid, they WILL NOT be in the playoffs." or "We WILL be in the playoffs if we beat this team." The all-out guarantees are getting more and more, and I've seen some fans only post guarantees about the playoffs. Do we just have that many prophets and experts on this forum website? xcoffeex

[Engineer86]

A 10 win team is an absolute lock. The only worry about losing this week is that then a second loss could knock them out. I do not think a 9-2 PL has ever been left out.

Colgate was 9-2 in 2009 and did not getting and was 9-3 in 2002 and did not get in. That's it.

[atlfcsfan]

Colgate was 9-2 in 2009 and did not getting and was 9-3 in 2002 and did not get in. That's it.


And those were seasons when teams got in at 7-4, its a good chance some 8-3 teams wont make it this year, so in your case, 10-1 might not be good enough. I feel Lehigh, without the autobid, would be a long shot.

[Engineer86]

Cal Poly

Ok, now try 10 DI wins please Simon Fraser, Western MT, Western NM

That is 7 DI wins. Pull another straw.

[Engineer86]

No he didn't. I quoted what he said, name one 10 win team that didn't make the playoffs. There are plenty of them, but I only named one.

Ok here is the clarification for you 10 DI wins. How many of them do you have?

[ITmonarch10]

My favorite part of playoff projection time is the amount of experts that step forward. I didn't know so many people on this website were on the committee or at least knew their thought processes. Every where I look I see someone saying "This team WILL NOT get a seed." or "If this team loses the auto bid, they WILL NOT be in the playoffs." or "We WILL be in the playoffs if we beat this team." The all-out guarantees are getting more and more, and I've seen some fans only post guarantees about the playoffs. Do we just have that many prophets and experts on this forum website? xcoffeex

Thou Shall not be a hater. Bracketology is something anyone can be an expert in. If you follow FCS football or NCAA Basketball you can make a fairly accurate bracket.

[superman7515]

Off the top of my head, Dayton two years ago.

[Engineer86]

Off the top of my head, Dayton two years ago.

9 wins Central state is not DI are they? I do not think so. I saw Howard played in the Hertitage Bowl in their yer, was that a factor?

[kalm]

Yes.

The PL is not frowned upon to the people that matter. I actually think the PL's focus on only D1 games helps them.

How?

[App1928]

You honestly think the committee cares about close wins?


close wins against very very bad teams with no even semi-descent wins? yes.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

close wins against very very bad teams with no even semi-descent wins? yes.

Who would be deemed as "very, very bad" besides HC? Everyone else is basically .500.

[atlfcsfan]

Who would be deemed as "very, very bad" besides HC? Everyone else is basically .500.

Georgetown, Fordham? disregardless of won loss record, those arent very good FCS teams

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Georgetown, Fordham? disregardless of won loss record, those arent very good FCS teams

That is a matter of opinion. I'd tend to call them "mediocre/average" FU is 5-4 and Georgetown is 4-5.

Either way they aren't "very, very bad". There is so much hyperbole with Lehigh it makes your head spin.

[atlfcsfan]

If they were in the CAA or socon those schools would be considered bottom feeders

[Mr. C]

The best way to figure out what the committee will do is to follow precedent, kind of like how the Supreme Court usually follows precedent when deciding cases. It also helps having known many members of the committee over the years and having had numerous conversations with them about the process.

Keep in mind several things in regards to Lehigh. Being 11-0, the Mountain Hawks are likely to earn a top-five seed. Think of Colgate being undefeated in 2003 and Sam Houston State playing a weak schedule and being undefeated last season (when the Bearkats were ranked No. 1). While two-loss teams from the PL and other auto-bid leagues have been left out, one-loss teams never have. The close wins are not going to reflect as negatively as you might think. They are still wins. Another thing favoring Lehigh is the fact that the Mountain Hawks have won a playoff game in each of the past two years. There is a street credibility that Lehigh has that not all teams have.

Some other things to consider. The committee will not penalize a team for playing and losing to FBS opponents, particularly BCS foes. So in the committee's view, Towson would be 7-2 if the Tigers win their final two games (with losses to two pretty good FBS opponents, Kent State and LSU). Those two FCS losses would be to JMU and Old Dominion, teams ranked in the top 10 for most of the season. My sources tell me that Towson likely gets in with seven wins, because of one of the strongest strengths of schedule. That schedule would also include wins over ranked opponents Villanova and New Hampshire. I doubt that any other 7-4 team has much of a shot at getting into the field.

Also remember that just because a team from one league is 9-2 and one from another league is 8-3 doesn't mean the nine-win team will get in and the eight-win team will be left out. The committee would look at both team's resumes side-by-side and figure out which team, subjectively, is better. Regional rankings of the teams from the subcommittees also weigh heavily into the process.

[Appattk]

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh
CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: N. Arizona
Southland: C. Arkansas
Southern: ASU
MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune
OVC: UT Martin
Big South: Stony Brook
NEC: Wagner

At-large: ODU, JMU, EWU, Montana St, Sam Houston St, Georgia Southern, Wofford, Illinois State, Cal Poly, Richmond

Seeds: #1 NDSU, #2 ODU, #3 Montana St, #4 Sam Houston State, #5 Lehigh
Last In: Richmond, Cal Poly, Illinois State
Last Out: Villanova, South Dakota St, Indiana St, Samford

Week 1 Games
Bethune Cookman @ Cal Poly
UT Martin @ Illinois St
Wagner @ Stony Brook
Richmond @ Wofford

Bracket I:
Bethune Cookman @ Cal Poly winner at No. 1 North Dakota State
New Hampshire @ Eastern Washington

Wagner @ Stony Brook winner at #4 Sam Houston State
Northern Arizona @ No. 5 Lehigh

Bracket II:
UT Martin @ Illinois St winner at No. 3 Montana St
Central Arkansas @ Georgia Southern

Wagner @ Stony Brook winner at No. 2 Old Dominion
James Madison @ Appalachian State

LOCATION MAP: https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=206379784184323320354.0004cdb355ee79bb466dc

It's going to be interesting with what looks like 3 seeds out west... Geography is out the window this year!

[TheGoldCrotchPiece]

does towson have a snow balls chance if we finish 6-5. most likely 5th place in the caa. assume a win vs roady and a loss at uhn. that would be 5-3 in the caa with losses to odu (home), jmu (road) unh (road). road fbs losses to lsu 7-2 (excellent showing, leading at one point) and kent state 8-1.

the tigers will 100% be in, if we beat unh. most likely with a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the caa.

[CHIP72]

does towson have a snow balls chance if we finish 6-5. most likely 5th place in the caa. assume a win vs roady and a loss at uhn. that would be 5-3 in the caa with losses to odu (home), jmu (road) unh (road). road fbs losses to lsu 7-2 (excellent showing, leading at one point) and kent state 8-1.

the tigers will 100% be in, if we beat unh. most likely with a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the caa.

With the CAA down relatively-speaking this year, I don't think any CAA team gets in at 6-5, even Towson with their excellent strength of schedule. Their best wins in that scenario would be at Villanova and at Delaware, and depending on what happens the next two weeks those two wins may be only good and not great.

[89rabbit]

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh
CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: N. Arizona
Southland: C. Arkansas
Southern: ASU
MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune
OVC: UT Martin
Big South: Stony Brook
NEC: Wagner

At-large: ODU, JMU, EWU, Montana St, Sam Houston St, Georgia Southern, Wofford, Illinois State, Cal Poly, Richmond

Seeds: #1 NDSU, #2 ODU, #3 Montana St, #4 Sam Houston State, #5 Lehigh
Last In: Richmond, Cal Poly, Illinois State
Last Out: Villanova, South Dakota St, Indiana St, Samford

Week 1 Games
Bethune Cookman @ Cal Poly
UT Martin @ Illinois St
Wagner @ Stony Brook
Richmond @ Wofford

Bracket I:
Bethune Cookman @ Cal Poly winner at No. 1 North Dakota State
New Hampshire @ Eastern Washington

Wagner @ Stony Brook winner at #4 Sam Houston State
Northern Arizona @ No. 5 Lehigh

Bracket II:
UT Martin @ Illinois St winner at No. 3 Montana St
Central Arkansas @ Georgia Southern

Wagner @ Stony Brook winner at No. 2 Old Dominion
James Madison @ Appalachian State

LOCATION MAP: https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=206379784184323320354.0004cdb355ee79bb466dc

It's going to be interesting with what looks like 3 seeds out west... Geography is out the window this year!

SDSU has to win 1 of 2 to end the season with 8 D-I wins. No 8 win MVFC team has been left out of the playoffs and it is highly unlikely that the MVFC only gets two teams in. I mean come on you have Ill. State as one of the last 4 in so NDSU is the only lock from the MVFC. xrolleyesx xsmhx xeyebrowx

[Appattk]

SDSU has to win 1 of 2 to end the season with 8 D-I wins. No 8 win MVFC team has been left out of the playoffs and it is highly unlikely that the MVFC only gets two teams in. I mean come on you have Ill. State as one of the last 4 in so NDSU is the only lock from the MVFC. xrolleyesx xsmhx xeyebrowx

Who would you replace with SDSU? So many teams with good resumes... Some with better resumes than SDSU

[kalm]

The best way to figure out what the committee will do is to follow precedent, kind of like how the Supreme Court usually follows precedent when deciding cases. It also helps having known many members of the committee over the years and having had numerous conversations with them about the process.

Keep in mind several things in regards to Lehigh. Being 11-0, the Mountain Hawks are likely to earn a top-five seed. Think of Colgate being undefeated in 2003 and Sam Houston State playing a weak schedule and being undefeated last season (when the Bearkats were ranked No. 1). While two-loss teams from the PL and other auto-bid leagues have been left out, one-loss teams never have. The close wins are not going to reflect as negatively as you might think. They are still wins. Another thing favoring Lehigh is the fact that the Mountain Hawks have won a playoff game in each of the past two years. There is a street credibility that Lehigh has that not all teams have.

Some other things to consider. The committee will not penalize a team for playing and losing to FBS opponents, particularly BCS foes. So in the committee's view, Towson would be 7-2 if the Tigers win their final two games (with losses to two pretty good FBS opponents, Kent State and LSU). Those two FCS losses would be to JMU and Old Dominion, teams ranked in the top 10 for most of the season. My sources tell me that Towson likely gets in with seven wins, because of one of the strongest strengths of schedule. That schedule would also include wins over ranked opponents Villanova and New Hampshire. I doubt that any other 7-4 team has much of a shot at getting into the field.

Also remember that just because a team from one league is 9-2 and one from another league is 8-3 doesn't mean the nine-win team will get in and the eight-win team will be left out. The committee would look at both team's resumes side-by-side and figure out which team, subjectively, is better. Regional rankings of the teams from the subcommittees also weigh heavily into the process.

But the same should hold for the seeds right? As great as Lehigh's success has been during the regular season, they still only have a couple of playoff wins. Seeding them above a 9-2 power conference team would be a complete joke.

Compare...

CCSU
Monmouth
Princeton
Liberty
Fordham
Columbia
Georgetown
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Colgate
Lafayett

with

Arizona State
UNLV
Fort Lewis
Montana
Portland State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Southern Utah
Cal Poly

That's not even the strongest SOS of the 3 BSC teams vying for a seed and does not include the potential 9-2 or better teams from the other big four. In fact, Lehigh's SOS would be dead last in the BSC and their Sagarin ranking would have them just barely above UNC and Idaho State.

It's apples and oranges. If Lafayette wants better cred, schedule a better OOC. If the committee awards them a seed they are not doing their job.

As for Towson, a 7-4 Sac State would have a similar resume with quality losses against EWU, MSU, and NMSU, and wins over ranked Poly and FBS Colorado.

[Engineer86]

But the same should hold for the seeds right? As great as Lehigh's success has been during the regular season, they still only have a couple of playoff wins. Seeding them above a 9-2 power conference team would be a complete joke.

Compare...

CCSU
Monmouth
Princeton
Liberty
Fordham
Columbia
Georgetown
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Colgate
Lafayett

with

Arizona State
UNLV
Fort Lewis
Montana
Portland State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Southern Utah
Cal Poly

That's not even the strongest SOS of the 3 BSC teams vying for a seed and does not include the potential 9-2 or better teams from the other big four. In fact, Lehigh's SOS would be dead last in the BSC and their Sagarin ranking would have them just barely above UNC and Idaho State.

It's apples and oranges. If Lafayette wants better cred, schedule a better OOC. If the committee awards them a seed they are not doing their job.

As for Towson, a 7-4 Sac State would have a similar resume with quality losses against EWU, MSU, and NMSU, and wins over ranked Poly and FBS Colorado.

Despite his logical post you still argue with It. BTW, getting obliterated by Arizona St, is about as impressive as beating No. Colorado 12-10, not very. We will all know the outcome in two weeks I am comfortable waiting for it based on past history, despite many posters here

[Kemo]

Who would you replace with SDSU? So many teams with good resumes... Some with better resumes than SDSU

You can start with Wofford and Sam Houston, unless you expect them to upset SC and Texas A&M (based of the scenario you provided). They each played non-DI schools, so in the eyes of the committee, they'll be 7-3 while SDSU will be 8-3 (assuming you have them losing to NDSU and beating USD) and plays in the toughest FCS conference according to almost every ranking I've seen so far.

[Red & Black]

does towson have a snow balls chance if we finish 6-5.

No.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[atlfcsfan]

Everybody is saying their team will get in, but someone will definitely be left out.

There are still a few givens. And just a way to look at it.

10 at large and consider the first 7 at large will be this.

2-CAA
2-Big Sky
1-So Con
1- MVC
Sam Houston St (assuming a victory next week)

that would leave 3 slots.

The options are:

4th place CAA team
4th place Big Sky team
3rd place SoCon team
3rd place MVC team
2nd place OVC team
plus any potential team who might get upset from the other conferences (Lehigh,Albany,Stony Brook)

Thats 6 possibilities and only half will get in and the other half will be disappointed.

[kalm]

Despite his logical post you still argue with It. BTW, getting obliterated by Arizona St, is about as impressive as beating No. Colorado 12-10, not very. We will all know the outcome in two weeks I am comfortable waiting for it based on past history, despite many posters here

Huh?

The "logic" he typed was:


Keep in mind several things in regards to Lehigh. Being 11-0, the Mountain Hawks are likely to earn a top-five seed. Think of Colgate being undefeated in 2003 and Sam Houston State playing a weak schedule and being undefeated last season (when the Bearkats were ranked No. 1). While two-loss teams from the PL and other auto-bid leagues have been left out, one-loss teams never have. The close wins are not going to reflect as negatively as you might think. They are still wins. Another thing favoring Lehigh is the fact that the Mountain Hawks have won a playoff game in each of the past two years. There is a street credibility that Lehigh has that not all teams have.

So we're basing a seed off of an undefeated or one loss record against clearly inferior conference and OOC opponents and two first round wins that have nothing to do with this year? EWU knocked off seeded teams on the road in the first round in 2004 and 2007. You know what that earned us for consideration in future playoffs? Jack ****. If Lehigh goes 10-1 while scheduling like Liberty does than you're at least inching closer.

Home field advantage is huge in the playoffs and the 5 best teams deserve to get that benefit. Plucky underdog sentimentalities and "street cred" aside, Lehigh is not one of those 5.

[Engineer86]

Huh?

The "logic" he typed was:



So we're basing a seed off of an undefeated or one loss record against clearly inferior conference and OOC opponents and two first round wins that have nothing to do with this year? EWU knocked off seeded teams on the road in the first round in 2004 and 2007. You know what that earned us for consideration in future playoffs? Jack ****. If Lehigh goes 10-1 while scheduling like Liberty does than you're at least inching closer.

Home field advantage is huge in the playoffs and the 5 best teams deserve to get that benefit. Plucky underdog sentimentalities and "street cred" aside, Lehigh is not one of those 5.

My point is you are providing your opinion of Lehigh and close wins against a "weak" schedule, while he explained the process and provided a perspective of how the committee works.

[kalm]

My point is you are providing your opinion of Lehigh and close wins against a "weak" schedule, while he explained the process and provided a perspective of how the committee works.

No. Who Lehigh has played compared to other possible seeds would be called "facts". And if he's right about the "sentiments" aka as "opinions" of the committee than the "process" is seriously flawed.

[skinny_uncle]

Who would you replace with SDSU? So many teams with good resumes... Some with better resumes than SDSU
Indiana State would also be 8-3 provided they win their finale over a struggling YSU. Let's see those resumes who are better.

[Engineer86]

No. Who Lehigh has played compared to other possible seeds would be called "facts". And if he's right about the "sentiments" aka as "opinions" of the committee than the "process" is seriously flawed.

Again your opinion of "who" Lehigh has played. I am fine with waiting two weeks to see how this plays out.xcoffeex

[Engineer86]

Indiana State would also be 8-3 provided they win their finale over a struggling YSU. Let's see those resumes who are better.

7-3 in the eyes of the committee

[skinny_uncle]

Everybody is saying their team will get in, but someone will definitely be left out.

There are still a few givens. And just a way to look at it.

10 at large and consider the first 7 at large will be this.

2-CAA
2-Big Sky
1-So Con
1- MVC
Sam Houston St (assuming a victory next week)

that would leave 3 slots.

The options are:

4th place CAA team
4th place Big Sky team
3rd place SoCon team
3rd place MVC team
2nd place OVC team
plus any potential team who might get upset from the other conferences (Lehigh,Albany,Stony Brook)

Thats 6 possibilities and only half will get in and the other half will be disappointed.
I think the assumption that the CAA would get more bids than the MVFC is faulty when almost every rating service in the country has the MVFC rated as the toughest conference in the country.

[kalm]

Again your opinion of "who" Lehigh has played. I am fine with waiting two weeks to see how this plays out.xcoffeex

No, who they have played and who they will play is a fact. Way to rest on your (non) laurels.

[skinny_uncle]

7-3 in the eyes of the committee

True, but one of those wins was against the defending national champion who has been ranked #1 most of the year. Their only losses were to a Big 10 team and a pair of ranked teams. It comes down the importance of SOS vs. just the number of wins.

[89rabbit]

Indiana State would also be 8-3 provided they win their finale over a struggling YSU. Let's see those resumes who are better.

They would only have 7 D-I wins and more importantly we beat them head to head at their place.

SDSU 24 - Indiana State 10




We are 7-2 (all D-I wins) with two games left

@ #1 NDSU
vs USD (they currently have one win over Colgate)

More then likely the worse case for us is 8-3 (if we go 9-2 we win the MVFC auto bid) and I think that will get us in.

[Redbird Ray]

Anything less than 4 bids from the MVFC is totally unacceptable. 5 points higher than any other FCS conference in Sagarin, 8 points higher than the CAA.

[Mr. C]

Anything less than 4 bids from the MVFC is totally unacceptable. 5 points higher than any other FCS conference in Sagarin, 8 points higher than the CAA.

Why do people keep mentioning Sagarin? Sagarin is one of the worst computer ratings out there. He doesn't include ALL college teams, so his ratings of FCS schools that play D-II and lower games throws things off.

[skinny_uncle]

Why do people keep mentioning Sagarin? Sagarin is one of the worst computer ratings out there. He doesn't include ALL college teams, so his ratings of FCS schools that play D-II and lower games throws things off.

Wins against D-II and lower are not considered by the committee, so how does that throw things off?

[Mr. C]

I think the assumption that the CAA would get more bids than the MVFC is faulty when almost every rating service in the country has the MVFC rated as the toughest conference in the country.

But what you don't know is if the committee thinks that the MVFC is the toughest conference in the country. I can tell you of three, or four committee members who would say it is not (CAA, Big Sky, SoCon and Southland reps — the SoCon rep being the committee chairman).

[ngineer]

Eastern Ill with a win over UCA is a possibility. Also with a Colgate win over Lehigh, they get the AQ, and Lehigh could be sitting there at 10-1 for at a large consideration. Not really part of what you are trying to lay out, but it could take up one more at large birth.

That's why, of all ironies, most of this Board will be cheering for Lehigh this weekend! xrotatehxxlolxxrotatehxxlolxxnodx

[Mr. C]

Wins against D-II and lower are not considered by the committee, so how does that throw things off?

It throws off Sagarin's ratings. You have to consider EVERY game that is played for the computer to spit out more accurate results. That has nothing to do with the committee throwing out D-II wins and FBS losses. The FBS games are in his ratings, why not the D-II and below games?

[skinny_uncle]

But what you don't know is if the committee thinks that the MVFC is the toughest conference in the country. I can tell you of three, or four committee members who would say it is not (CAA, Big Sky, SoCon and Southland reps — the SoCon rep being the committee chairman).

So you are saying politics is more important than SOS?

[Mr. C]

That's why, of all ironies, most of this Board will be cheering for Lehigh this weekend! xrotatehxxlolxxrotatehxxlolxxnodx

Every at-large teams needs to be rooting for Lehigh to win the AQ.

[skinny_uncle]

It throws off Sagarin's ratings. You have to consider EVERY game that is played for the computer to spit out more accurate results. That has nothing to do with the committee throwing out D-II wins and FBS losses. The FBS games are in his ratings, why not the D-II and below games?
So how do you feel about the GPI?

[Mr. C]

So you are saying politics is more important than SOS?

The NCAA committee has its own rankings and the regional rankings, in particular, are very important to the process. And if you don't think politics is involved in the process, you just got off the turnip truck.

[Mr. C]

So how do you feel about the GPI?

The GPI is better than Sagarin, but there are still some inherent flaws in it that I have discussed with the founder of it through the years. The GPI doesn't account for scoring margin and puts too much emphasis on conference strength of schedule, so a bad team, or a mediocre from a good league gets an artificial boost because those teams get to play more highly-ranked teams. It is somewhat self-perpituating.

[ngineer]

That is a matter of opinion. I'd tend to call them "mediocre/average" FU is 5-4 and Georgetown is 4-5.

Either way they aren't "very, very bad". There is so much hyperbole with Lehigh it makes your head spin.

Isn't wonderful that we garner so much attention? (;-)

[skinny_uncle]

That's why, of all ironies, most of this Board will be cheering for Lehigh this weekend! xrotatehxxlolxxrotatehxxlolxxnodx

If they can't beat a Colgate team who lost to the worst team in the MVFC, how seriously should we take them?

[Mr. C]

But the same should hold for the seeds right? As great as Lehigh's success has been during the regular season, they still only have a couple of playoff wins. Seeding them above a 9-2 power conference team would be a complete joke.

Compare...

CCSU
Monmouth
Princeton
Liberty
Fordham
Columbia
Georgetown
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Colgate
Lafayett

with

Arizona State
UNLV
Fort Lewis
Montana
Portland State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Southern Utah
Cal Poly

That's not even the strongest SOS of the 3 BSC teams vying for a seed and does not include the potential 9-2 or better teams from the other big four. In fact, Lehigh's SOS would be dead last in the BSC and their Sagarin ranking would have them just barely above UNC and Idaho State.

It's apples and oranges. If Lafayette wants better cred, schedule a better OOC. If the committee awards them a seed they are not doing their job.

As for Towson, a 7-4 Sac State would have a similar resume with quality losses against EWU, MSU, and NMSU, and wins over ranked Poly and FBS Colorado.

Please, can we stopping quoting the pathetic Sagarin ratings around here? That is for entertainment value and not much else.

Colorado is a terrible team, so that win will be tempered by the committee. New Mexico State has traditionally been one of the worst FBS programs in the country. Towson has a win over a ranked team from Villanova and would have another with the win over New Hampshire that would be needed to get to seven wins. The loss to LSU was very competitive (38-22). Towson led late in the first half and the 22 points were the most scored by ANY team against LSU since the 2011 LSU opener with Oregon. Alabama has played LSU three times and not scored as many points in any of those games that Towson did. Kent State (the other FBS loss) is 8-1 and in first place in the Mid-American Conference. Those are tougher games than playing Colorado and New Mexico State by a long shot. Losses by Towson to JMU and ODU (top-10 teams) are just as good as losses by Sac State to EWU and MSU. All four of those losses by the two teams in question were games that could have been won. Sac State has the win over Cal Poly (who I personally feel was over-ranked). Towson still can win a share of the CAA title with victories in the final two games and a win by Villanova, or ODU over JMU. I'm not sure how the auto bid works in a multiple-team CAA finish. Too many crazy possibilities there. Towson is also the defending CAA champion and a playoff participant from last season, which counts for something if everything else is equal in the committee's eyes.

I've seen both teams play and feel like Towson is the better team, particularly defensively. The Tigers have just started coming on offensively and could be a dangerous opponent in the playoffs. And in case you think I have East Coast bias, I was born and raised in California and spent the first half of my career working for California newspapers, including the Los Angeles Times. I've actually been to Hughes Stadium and remember that place all the way back to when they used to play the Camellia Bowl. I've been on the Sacramento State campus through the years.

[Mr. C]

[/B]

Isn't wonderful that we garner so much attention? (;-)

I'm sure they are loving that over on the Hill.

[mgbison]

I want to go back to Frisco. I say put Lehigh in regardless.

[World]

A 10 win team is an absolute lock. The only worry about losing this week is that then a second loss could knock them out. I do not think a 9-2 PL has ever been left out.

fully agree

[World]

If they were in the CAA or socon those schools would be considered bottom feeders

Lehigh would place in the top three in each of those leagues

[89rabbit]

Our beat writer tweeted this from Sports Network

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

Craig Haley has Cal-Poly coming to Brookings in a 1st round playoff game. Works for me. xnodx

[dudeitsaid]

Wow, he has 3 of 5 seeds coming out of the Big Sky, and 4 teams in. Obviously just a prognostication. I think Cal Poly beats NAU and changes this on the Big Sky side of things.

[Wallace]

The GPI is better than Sagarin, but there are still some inherent flaws in it that I have discussed with the founder of it through the years. The GPI doesn't account for scoring margin and puts too much emphasis on conference strength of schedule, so a bad team, or a mediocre from a good league gets an artificial boost because those teams get to play more highly-ranked teams. It is somewhat self-perpituating.

While I am not the founder of the GPI, or even a developer of it over the years (that would be Dr. Kenneth Massey), I will point out that the type of computer ratings the regular GPI uses are half margin of victory (including the flawed Sagarin). Furthermore there is no conference strength of schedule used in any of them. If a team plays 8 highly ranked teams then their SoS will be higher than one that plays lower squads. What conference they are in does not matter.

[Mr. C]

Our beat writer tweeted this from Sports Network

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

Craig Haley has Cal-Poly coming to Brookings in a 1st round playoff game. Works for me. xnodx

Why would you think that someone who has little understanding of how the committee puts a field together would have any clue to what the brackets would look like? This bracket is really bad.

[MTfan4life]

Why would you think that someone who has little understanding of how the committee puts a field together would have any clue to what the brackets would look like? This bracket is really bad.

This. I usually look for the Sports Network bracket for laughing material before I attempt to fill out my own bracket projection.

[kalm]

Please, can we stopping quoting the pathetic Sagarin ratings around here? That is for entertainment value and not much else.

Colorado is a terrible team, so that win will be tempered by the committee. New Mexico State has traditionally been one of the worst FBS programs in the country. Towson has a win over a ranked team from Villanova and would have another with the win over New Hampshire that would be needed to get to seven wins. The loss to LSU was very competitive (38-22). Towson led late in the first half and the 22 points were the most scored by ANY team against LSU since the 2011 LSU opener with Oregon. Alabama has played LSU three times and not scored as many points in any of those games that Towson did. Kent State (the other FBS loss) is 8-1 and in first place in the Mid-American Conference. Those are tougher games than playing Colorado and New Mexico State by a long shot. Losses by Towson to JMU and ODU (top-10 teams) are just as good as losses by Sac State to EWU and MSU. All four of those losses by the two teams in question were games that could have been won. Sac State has the win over Cal Poly (who I personally feel was over-ranked). Towson still can win a share of the CAA title with victories in the final two games and a win by Villanova, or ODU over JMU. I'm not sure how the auto bid works in a multiple-team CAA finish. Too many crazy possibilities there. Towson is also the defending CAA champion and a playoff participant from last season, which counts for something if everything else is equal in the committee's eyes.

I've seen both teams play and feel like Towson is the better team, particularly defensively. The Tigers have just started coming on offensively and could be a dangerous opponent in the playoffs. And in case you think I have East Coast bias, I was born and raised in California and spent the first half of my career working for California newspapers, including the Los Angeles Times. I've actually been to Hughes Stadium and remember that place all the way back to when they used to play the Camellia Bowl. I've been on the Sacramento State campus through the years.

I just said they have "similar" resume's but you make good points comparing Sac and Towson. And since we're using the quality of opponent/quality of loss argument in regards to Sac and Towson, I would be interested to see such a strong defense of Lehigh's seed over a 2-loss power conference team as well.

[89rabbit]

Why would you think that someone who has little understanding of how the committee puts a field together would have any clue to what the brackets would look like? This bracket is really bad.

Why would you think that I am making a statement about his ability to predict the brackets??? Nothing in my post makes reference to anything of the sort. I just like playing Cal-Poly, and the idea of them coming to our place this late in the year would be fun (we have always hosted them in early fall).

[Redbird Ray]

Mr.C, why the hate for Sagarin? It seems to me if it's good enough to have a heavy hand in calculating bcs standings, then it's probably also fairly reliable to determine the cream of the fcs crop as well.

Your argument about not counting d2 games makes no sense. If the committee places no value on those wins, why should Sagarin?

The real problem with the fcs selection process is that there is way too much conference homerism/regionalism. The lack of accessibility among the subdivision makes it difficult for even the most saavy fcs followers to have a truly great feel for each team/conference.

[Appattk]

Mr.C, why the hate for Sagarin? It seems to me if it's good enough to have a heavy hand in calculating bcs standings, then it's probably also fairly reliable to determine the cream of the fcs crop as well.

Your argument about not counting d2 games makes no sense. If the committee places no value on those wins, why should Sagarin?

The real problem with the fcs selection process is that there is way too much conference homerism/regionalism. The lack of accessibility among the subdivision makes it difficult for even the most saavy fcs followers to have a truly great feel for each team/conference.

The following is why Sagarin should not be trusted....

1. North Dakota State
2. Sam Houston State
3. Indiana State
4. Northern Iowa

[moosbah]

The following is why Sagarin should not be trusted....

1. North Dakota State
2. Sam Houston State
3. Indiana State
4. Northern Iowa

(Insert argument from some UNI fan that they actually are a good team).

[Redbird Ray]

UNI would win 2/3 of the leagues in this garbage subdivision. How many other teams in FCS can play both Wisconsin and Iowa on the road to within 11 points? If you think the answer is more than 10, you're FOS.

[clenz]

Name me 25 fcs teams you would put 1,000 dollars on to beat them at a neutral site game

Sent from the nexus of the universe

[Lehigh'98]

The question shouldn't be a bet of $1000, it should be who would be favored on a neutral field: pretty much all of the top 40 would be at this point I think. They have only had 1 good W this year and it came at home. On neutral field, I see no reason to favor them over most good teams this year.

[CHIP72]

UNI would win 2/3 of the leagues in this garbage subdivision. How many other teams in FCS can play both Wisconsin and Iowa on the road to within 11 points? If you think the answer is more than 10, you're FOS.

It sounds like you would have loved Rich Kotite as a head coach; his teams (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets) would play most teams tough but lose just about every game. Neither the Eagles nor Jets got style points for losing close games under Kotite.

[clenz]

The question shouldn't be a bet of $1000, it should be who would be favored on a neutral field: pretty much all of the top 40 would be at this point I think. They have only had 1 good W this year and it came at home. On neutral field, I see no reason to favor them over most good teams this year.
Favored? You realize lines are set to get bets, not really who should win, right?


I'm not saying UNI is 4th, or even top 15-20...but the fact you can't name 25 teams you'd place money on to beat UNI says something...I don't know if it's about UNI, the field, or you...but it says something.

[Engineer86]

Favored? You realize lines are set to get bets, not really who should win, right?


I'm not saying UNI is 4th, or even top 15-20...but the fact you can't name 25 teams you'd place money on to beat UNI says something...I don't know if it's about UNI, the field, or you...but it says something.

I don't know about you, but I don't have $1,000 to bet on any football game. I would only do that if I knew the outcome. I think the point is, do I think there are 25 that can beat them, yes. You probably would not agree with me, but that is just a difference in opinion. Either way there is not a chance of me betting $1,000 NDSU would beat UNI and I rank them number 1.