Somebody break down MVFC conference and playoff standings

[LeeshaJo]

If I understand the conference right...

SDSU and NDSU are tied? going into next Saturday?

How does it breakout from there?

What about playoff picture... how bad does the Ind. State loss hurt them and Ill state win help their cause?

[NoDak 4 Ever]

If I understand the conference right...

SDSU and NDSU are tied? going into next Saturday?

How does it breakout from there?

What about playoff picture... how bad does the Ind. State loss hurt them and Ill state win help their cause?


this is my sense of it.

TEAM CONF OVR
NDakota State 5-1 8-1
SDakota State 5-1 7-2
Illinois State 5-2 8-2
Indiana State 5-2 7-3
Southern Illinois 4-3 5-5
Missouri State 3-4 3-7
Youngstown State2-4 5-4
Northern Iowa 2-4 3-6
Western Illinois 1-5 3-6
South Dakota 0-6 1-8

NDSU still has to play ISUr After SDSU
SDSU still has to play USD
ISUb still has to play YSU

NDSU/SDSU will catch up all the top teams in terms of record.

NDSU needs to win out to get the conference title because SDSU/ISUr would hold a tiebreaker over them.

ISUr helped themselves out tremendously because they will hold a tiebreaker over ISUb

Not all of these teams can win out but NDSU is def in based on ranking and wins.

SDSU is in with 1 win

ISUr is in based on 8 wins.

ISUb will need a minor miracle, most likely everyone else losing.

That is literally off the top of my head so I'm open to clarification.

[Bozemaniac]

If NDSU wins, then they still have to beat IlSU at Normal to win the conference outright and take the auto bid; if the Redbirds beat them IlSU gets the autobid. If SDSU beats NDSU and wins at home against USD, they get the title outright and the autobid. If SDSU beats NDSU and loses to USD, and IlSU beats NDSU, then there is a tie at the top between NDSU, SDSU, IlSU, and possibly InSU. For either the three-way or four-way scenario, SDSU and IlSU win the first tiebreaker, are tied in common opponents (6-2) in the second tiebreaker, and it would go to GPI for the autobid.

Edit: In that last case, NDSU would have 3 losses and wouldn't be included, but the result is the same.

[ITmonarch10]

If I understand the conference right...

SDSU and NDSU are tied? going into next Saturday?

How does it breakout from there?

What about playoff picture... how bad does the Ind. State loss hurt them and Ill state win help their cause?

The Playoff picture cleared up a little for the MVFC

Illinois State and NDSU are in the playoffs regardless of what happens in the remainder of games.

SDSU should make the playoffs if they knock off either NDSU or SD

Indiana State has to knock off YSU to punch thier playoff tickets

This all assumes their are no Div 2 wins among those teams.

The Autobid should come down to the winner of the SDSU and NDSU game.

It my best guess ,but im not really a MVFC fan so your mileage may very :p

Also Its increasing looking like a 7-4 isn't making the field outside of maybe Sam Houston and Towson.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

Basically whoever wins the game next week will have the conference lead with one loss and everyone else at 2.

It is literally the only game of consequence going on next week. After that, the last week will tell a lot.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

The Playoff picture cleared up a little for the MVFC

Illinois State and NDSU are in the playoffs regardless of what happens in the remainder of games.

SDSU should make the playoffs if they knock off either NDSU or SD

Indiana State has to knock off YSU to punch thier playoff tickets

This all assumes their are no Div 2 wins among those teams.

The Autobid should come down to the winner of the SDSU and NDSU game.

It my best guess ,but im not really a MVFC fan so your mileage may very :p

Also Its increasing looking like a 7-4 isn't making the field outside of maybe Sam Houston and Towson.

ISUb has a non counter best they can do is 7 wins

[Bozemaniac]

Also, if SDSU loses to NDSU, beats USD, and IlSU beats NDSU, then those three are all tied at 6-2 in conference, with InSU also possibly at 6-2 if they beat Youngstown. In either the three-team case or the four-team case, IlSU takes the autobid with its win against NDSU.

[Cape_Fear]

In a four-team tiebreker, I don't think IlSU gets the autobid. I believe the tiebreaker would be common opponents among tied teams because IlSU and SDSU don't play. Those opponents are SIU, MSU, WIU and USD. IlSU went 2-2 against them and the others went 4-0.

I could be wrong though and won't be offended if someone points out I am.

[Bozemaniac]

In a four-team tiebreker, I don't think IlSU gets the autobid. I believe the tiebreaker would be common opponents among tied teams because IlSU and SDSU don't play. Those opponents are SIU, MSU, WIU and USD. IlSU went 2-2 against them and the others went 4-0.

I could be wrong though and won't be offended if someone points out I am.

After looking again, I'm not sure how the four-way would play out, but I was wrong earlier. The last tiebreaking procedure from the conference that I could find was from 2011 and only had specific instructions for three tied teams. It also mentioned that those procedures would be reviewed this year to account for the lack of a round-robin, but I can't find anything newer.

You're right that the first tiebreaker for the four-way would be the common opponents to all four teams, which in the case of a tie between SDSU, NDSU, IlSU, and InSU would be as you said USD, MSU, SIU, and YSU, with IlSU being 2-2 and the rest 4-0. Then you drop IlSU, and have three tied teams that all played each other but are all 1-1. So back to shared common opponents--still 4-0 for everyone. This also means that these three will still be tied if you look at common opponents one at a time starting with the best and going down the conference standings. Then it looks like GPI would decide the order of those three teams, and NDSU would likely get the autobid.

Hopefully it's a little less complicated in a couple weeks.

[Bisonwinagn]

After looking again, I'm not sure how the four-way would play out, but I was wrong earlier. The last tiebreaking procedure from the conference that I could find was from 2011 and only had specific instructions for three tied teams. It also mentioned that those procedures would be reviewed this year to account for the lack of a round-robin, but I can't find anything newer.

You're right that the first tiebreaker for the four-way would be the common opponents to all four teams, which in the case of a tie between SDSU, NDSU, IlSU, and InSU would be as you said USD, MSU, SIU, and YSU, with IlSU being 2-2 and the rest 4-0. Then you drop IlSU, and have three tied teams that all played each other but are all 1-1. So back to shared common opponents--still 4-0 for everyone. This also means that these three will still be tied if you look at common opponents one at a time starting with the best and going down the conference standings. Then it looks like GPI would decide the order of those three teams, and NDSU would likely get the autobid.

Hopefully it's a little less complicated in a couple weeks.

So assuming NDSU would still be ranked higher in the GPI with a win over SDSU and a loss to ISUr the game next weekend between NDSU and SDSU is for the conference championship and the autobid? or am I missing something?

[Bozemaniac]

So assuming NDSU would still be ranked higher in the GPI with a win over SDSU and a loss to ISUr the game next weekend between NDSU and SDSU is for the conference championship and the autobid? or am I missing something?

For NDSU, pretty much.

If SDSU wins and then manages to lose to USD things could get really interesting. As Cape_Fear pointed out, I messed up the multi-way tiebreak. If SDSU, IlSU, and InSU all end 6-2, since SDSU and IlSU didn't play eachother, I think the first tiebreak goes to common opponents of the three, and that means InSU would win even though they lost to both the other teams they're tied with. I think that has to be wrong, but I'm not sure. I'd really like to find the Valley's most up to date tiebreaker.

[Cape_Fear]

For NDSU, pretty much.

If SDSU wins and then manages to lose to USD things could get really interesting. As Cape_Fear pointed out, I messed up the multi-way tiebreak. If SDSU, IlSU, and InSU all end 6-2, since SDSU and IlSU didn't play eachother, I think the first tiebreak goes to common opponents of the three, and that means InSU would win even though they lost to both the other teams they're tied with. I think that has to be wrong, but I'm not sure. I'd really like to find the Valley's most up to date tiebreaker.

From deep in the Valley site I found the tie-breaker criteria:
2 teams --
1) Head to head
2) If they don't play, record against common opponents
3) If still tied, result against highest common opponent (repeat down through the standings)
4) If after that tied, the team with highest ranking in the most recent GPI before selection

3 or more teams (If tie is broken and two teams remain go back to head-to-head)
1) Round-robin among tied teams (not happening as long as SDSU and IlSU are involved)
2) If still tied or teams involved did not all play each other record against common opponents
3) Record against highest common opponent (again, work way down standings)
4) GPI


Again with the caveat that I may have missed something, here is what I believe to be the auto-bid qualifier based on the possible tie scenarios. The only way Indiana State could get the auto-bid is heads-up on NDSU, which is an impossibility, or a massive climb in GPI.

4-way tie: GPI -- IlSU spit out to get to 3, tiebreakers go down to GPI.

SDSU, NDSU, InSU: GPI

SDSU, NDSU, IlSU: Winner of SDSU-NDSU -- all common opponents kicks out IlSU (losses to MSU, SIU), get down to 2 for head to head

SDSU, IlSU, InSU: South Dakota State -- the three-way tiebreaker spits out IlSU, SDSU beat InSU

NDSU, IlSU, InSU: Illinois State -- Round Robin (ISU 2-0, InSU 1-1, NDSU 0-2) would need NDSU over SDSU, USD over SDSU, IlSU over NDSU and InSU over YSU

SDSU, IlSU: South Dakota State -- Would take SDSU beating NDSU and then losing to USD, IlSU over NDSU, and YSU beating InSU. Tiebreaker comes down to game against either Missouri State or Southern Illinois (depending on standings) since both beat NDSU and InSU and IlSU lost them both, SDSU beat them both.

[skinny_uncle]

xdizzyx