Playoffs 'Til I Die: Picking the FCS Playoff Bracket, Week 10

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/488-playoffs-til-i-die-picking-the-fcs-playoff-bracket-week-10


This past week, tropical megastorm Sandy hammered, in one way or another, the entire East coast, causing bad weather and damage all the way from Conway, South Carolina up to Orono, Maine.

But it was out West where the biggest ripples happened in the FCS playoff picture happened this weekend, with the No. 1 team in the nation, Eastern Washington, falling to unranked Southern Utah, and previously undefeated Cal Poly fell to unranked Sacramento State.

Suddenly, an already-complicated Big Sky autobid scenario just got even more complicated.

Especially in the Big Sky, who has a chance at the autobid? And who doesn't?

We look at the latest - and make our own picks as to who might emerge with spots in the playoffs.

[ISUalum]

Indiana State plays YSU, not WIU as you stated in your review of the MVFC

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Indiana State plays YSU, not WIU as you stated in your review of the MVFC

Thanks, this is fixed.

[NHwildEcat]

I love the New Hampshire bracket...I think that would be the best case scenario for UNH. They get that draw and I think there is a legit chance of a final 4 run.

[WileECoyote06]

Can someone clarify the rule?

I thought the committee tries to avoid conference mates playing each other in their first playoff game?

[van]

Can someone clarify the rule?

I thought the committee tries to avoid conference mates playing each other in their first playoff game?

When both teams are playing their first game, not either team.

[Sammy94]

By dispatching of Southeastern Louisiana (3-5, 3-1) 34-14 this weekend, Central Arkansas owns tiebreakers over both the Lions and the other team that could tie the Bears, Sam Houston State (6-2, 4-1). Thanks to their 30-20 win over the Bearkats on September 22nd, if Central Arkansas beats 4-4 Northwestern State this weekend in their last conference game, they've won the autobid.

Can't get the score correct but at least understands UCA will receive the autobid.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Can't get the score correct but at least understands UCA will receive the autobid.

Fixed. Funny story on this - the live stats had given UCA a touchdown on the final play, and that score stayed in our scoreboard system! I just updated our scoreboards and I also fixed the article.

[HailSzczur]

I love that you have Nova in the field, I mean currently I think we are in the Top 20 teams in the country, or sitting right on the fence. It just makes me really nervous reading stuff like this. Reading people project us for the playoffs given our current standings feeling like having your best free throw shooter on the line late in the game when the announcer starts saying "Villanova is traditionally a very good free throw shooting team, and _____ is a perfect 8 for 8 on the day". Depending how JMU does this weekend I may feel a little better, but there's a lot of tension at 6-3 (4-2) given the way the playoff hunt is shaping out.

But I'm really digging that UNH bracket. It's pretty much Lehigh vs the CAA North. Some real fun matchups in there. Plus I've always wanted to see a game at Goodman.

[RabidRabbit]

Why would two BSC teams, who are not the AQ get a seed, and the undefeated AQ of the BSC not get a seed? That seems to be wrong. MT ST has no great wins, so far, and played a relatively easy OOC. Both Cal Poly and NAU lack a bit of toughness in their schedules, but each has a FBS win in their resume. EWU and MT St each need to win out.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Why would two BSC teams, who are not the AQ get a seed, and the undefeated AQ of the BSC not get a seed? That seems to be wrong. MT ST has no great wins, so far, and played a relatively easy OOC. Both Cal Poly and NAU lack a bit of toughness in their schedules, but each has a FBS win in their resume. EWU and MT St each need to win out.

NAU has a win over UNLV, and that's really it. A UNLV team who, incidentally, would have a hard time beating Eastern Washington or Montana State. Due to a quirk in the schedule, NAU doesn't play EWU or Montana State - an oversight that could be rectified in the playoffs.

[Longhorn]

If a CAA team finishes at 7-4, they will make the playoffs, bank on it.

[ITmonarch10]

If a CAA team finishes at 7-4, they will make the playoffs, bank on it.
Outside of Towson, I just don't see it with the expanded big sky.

[WrenFGun]

If a CAA team finishes at 7-4, they will make the playoffs, bank on it.

Disagree strongly. Too many teams with 8 wins.

[Engineer86]

If a CAA team finishes at 7-4, they will make the playoffs, bank on it.

Not Delaware

[WileECoyote06]

If a CAA team finishes at 7-4, they will make the playoffs, bank on it.

Not this year; and not with the CAA trailing the Southland and in some ratings the OVC in terms of conference strength. I wouldn't be surprised if a Missouri Valley school made it in at 7 - 4 though.

[WrenFGun]

Not this year; and not with the CAA trailing the Southland and in some ratings the OVC in terms of conference strength. I wouldn't be surprised if a Missouri Valley school made it in at 7 - 4 though.

+1. I think Indiana State at 7-3 and SIU at 7-4 will both make the field if my projections go the way I've projected to them to, which they won't.

[URMite]

+1. I think Indiana State at 7-3 and SIU at 7-4 will both make the field if my projections go the way I've projected to them to, which they won't.

Do you think either of them would get in if it meant leaving out an 8 Div I win team from the Big Sky, MVFC, SoCon, or CAA?

[WrenFGun]

Do you think either of them would get in if it meant leaving out an 8 Div I win team from the Big Sky, MVFC, SoCon, or CAA?

No; the question is whether they'd get in over an 8 DI win OVC team, particularly since one of those potential 8 DI win teams would be EIU who would have wins over UCA and SIU if they got there.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

No; the question is whether they'd get in over an 8 DI win OVC team, particularly since one of those potential 8 DI win teams would be EIU who would have wins over UCA and SIU if they got there.

Fordham must really be cursing their game against D-II Lock Haven to open the season. They have a great chance to go 8-3 but would be at 7 D-I wins, which would seem to place them behind 7-4 teams with 2 FBS losses like, potentially, Towson.

[van]

Teams sure to have or very likely to have 8 or more wins:

1 NDSU
2 GA South
3 MTSU
4 SHSU
5 ODU
6 Woffy
7 EWU
8 Lehigh
9 Stony Brook
10 JMU
11 UNH
12 NAU
13 Central AR
14 IN State
15 Cal Poly
16 TN State
17 Albany
18 SD State
19 Richmond
2 Nova
21 E KY
22 Bethune Cookman

20 spots available, which 7-4 team trumps one of these?

[WrenFGun]

Teams sure to have or very likely to have 8 or more wins:

1 NDSU
2 GA South
3 MTSU
4 SHSU
5 ODU
6 Woffy
7 EWU
8 Lehigh
9 Stony Brook
10 JMU
11 UNH
12 NAU
13 Central AR
14 IN State
15 Cal Poly
16 TN State
17 Albany
18 SD State
19 Richmond
2 Nova
21 E KY
22 Bethune Cookman

20 spots available, which 7-4 team trumps one of these?

I wouldn't say Villanova or JMU are "likely" to have 8 DI wins. Indiana State is also unlikely to have 8 DI wins. I don't expect SD. State to get there, either.

[HailSzczur]

I wouldn't say Villanova or JMU are "likely" to have 8 DI wins. Indiana State is also unlikely to have 8 DI wins. I don't expect SD. State to get there, either.

I'm no statistician, but I count 16 possible ways JMU and Nova could finish the season and only 1 of them involves both teams reaching 8 wins (JMU over Maine this weekend, Nova over JMU next weekend, and Nova over UDel and JMU over ODU to close the season out).

More likely is that one of the 2 teams reaches 8 DI wins, 11 of 16 scenarios have one of the teams with 8 wins

[URMite]

At 8 Div I wins:
Lehigh
Tennessee St

Should get 8 Div I wins:
Bethune-Cookman
E Washington
Montana St
Stony Brook
Albany
Cal Poly
Ga Southern
N Dakota St
Old Dominion

Needs to be beat at least one good opponent to get 8 Div I wins:
Illinois St - ISUB NDSU needs to win 1
New Hampshire - WM TU needs to win 1 (only in this section because of the curse)xlolx
Wofford* - SAM UTC SO CAR needs to win 2
Indiana St* - ISUR YSU needs to win 2
TN Martin - JSU TN TECH TN ST needs to win 2
S Dakota St - SIU NDSU USD needs to win 2
Northern Arizona* - ID ST SUU CP needs to win 2
Sacramento St - MSU UCD needs to win 2
James Madison - MNE NOVA ODU needs to win 2
Appalachian St - GSU FU needs to win 2
Cent Arkansas* - NW ST EIU needs to win 2
E Kentucky - SEMO MUR ST needs to win 2
Villanova - JMU UD needs to win 2
E Illinois - TN TECH SEMO UCA needs to win 3
Richmond - URI UD WM needs to win 3

* can be 7-3 with FBS game.

2+9+Sam Houston = 12, 8 of the last group get in plus maybe Southern Illinois or Towson if enough teams lose.

[RabidRabbit]

Central AR wins the Southland AQ if wins vs NW St. Won't matter then for UCA on the EIU game.

[RabidRabbit]

NDSU, with their potent D, and adequate O, should make it to at least 8 d-I wins. But why is everyone giving them such an easy ride when the Bison have two away games, including another bubble team (ISU-R) and a very tough DakotaMarker rivalry game? The Bison path to the play-offs may not be any easier than any of the CAA or other MVFC potential play-off contenders.

[citdog]

If app st is in the mix at 7-4 then The Citadel who would also be 7-3 with an fbs loss and two wins over the top 10 and perhaps the top seed also must be.

[Houndawg]

Teams sure to have or very likely to have 8 or more wins:

1 NDSU
2 GA South
3 MTSU
4 SHSU
5 ODU
6 Woffy
7 EWU
8 Lehigh
9 Stony Brook
10 JMU
11 UNH
12 NAU
13 Central AR
14 IN State
15 Cal Poly
16 TN State
17 Albany
18 SD State
19 Richmond
2 Nova
21 E KY
22 Bethune Cookman

20 spots available, which 7-4 team trumps one of these?

If SIU beats SDSU and WIU they'd be 7-4 with a winning record in six games against teams that were ranked in the Top 25 when the game was played. They also have a #4 SOS, higher than anyone on the list.

If SIU wins out, SDSU beats NDSU, and somebody picks off ISU, I think we'll have four teams at 6-2 in MVC play..

[van]

I'm no statistician, but I count 16 possible ways JMU and Nova could finish the season and only 1 of them involves both teams reaching 8 wins (JMU over Maine this weekend, Nova over JMU next weekend, and Nova over UDel and JMU over ODU to close the season out).

More likely is that one of the 2 teams reaches 8 DI wins, 11 of 16 scenarios have one of the teams with 8 wins

Agree, likely one gets to 8 wins, one does not. So that leaves 21 and 20 spots. And I still think it very likely that IN state wins one more and gets to 8 wins.

[WileECoyote06]

If app st is in the mix at 7-4 then The Citadel who would also be 7-3 with an fbs loss and two wins over the top 10 and perhaps the top seed also must be.

It's long been my opinion that the committee tends to value who you beat; and since The Citadel at 7 - 3 has two great wins and no bad losses, IMHO they'd be more deserving than App. App can blame Montana for this. . .

[van]

It's long been my opinion that the committee tends to value who you beat; and since The Citadel at 7 - 3 has two great wins and no bad losses, IMHO they'd be more deserving than App. App can blame Montana for this. . .

No 7 win team gets an invite this year, how many times do we have to tell you!

[citdog]

No 7 win team gets an invite this year, how many times do we have to tell you!

we shall see. I think you're wrong.

[KATS_21]

No 7 win team gets an invite this year, how many times do we have to tell you!

Sam Houston will end the season at 8-3 with 1 of those wins coming against a D2 school, so they would be 7-3 with 2 losses to FBS Baylor and A&M and a loss to Central Arkansas.

[ITmonarch10]

Sam Houston will end the season at 8-3 with 1 of those wins coming against a D2 school, so they would be 7-3 with 2 losses to FBS Baylor and A&M and a loss to Central Arkansas.

Sam Houston is the ultimate playoff experiment this year. Because technically Sam Houston hasn't beaten anyone truly significant or have 8 Div 1 wins wins. They will be (8-3) overall (7-1) in fcs play and the Southland is just the Central Ark/Sam Houston playground. I believe they will be selected for the playoffs ,but I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't with all the 8-3 teams out there. The NCAA might deny Sam Houston a playoff spot to send a message against scheduling multiple FBS teams. Also you need to ask your AD What he was smoking when he made your schedule.

[van]

Sam Houston is the ultimate playoff experiment this year. Because technically Sam Houston hasn't beaten anyone truly significant or have 8 Div 1 wins wins. They will be (8-3) overall (7-1) in fcs play and the Southland is just the Central Ark/Sam Houston playground. I believe they will be selected for the playoffs ,but I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't with all the 8-3 teams out there. The NCAA might deny Sam Houston a playoff spot to send a message against scheduling multiple FBS teams. Also you need to ask your AD What he was smoking when he made your schedule.

more foolishness, Sam is in at 8-3, no question about it. If they stumble to 7-4 they watch on TV.

[danefan]

more foolishness, Sam is in at 8-3, no question about it. If they stumble to 7-4 they watch on TV.

They can only be 7-3 DI. That DII game might really matter.

[URMite]

No 7 win team gets an invite this year, how many times do we have to tell you!

The exception is 7-3 SHSU. Possibly McNeese St at 7-3 with two FBS wins. I can't see anyone else getting in before anyone on my list above who get to 8 Div I wins. Then 7-3 from above list. Then they'll look at siu at 7-4 with great SOS, The citadel at 7-4 with 1 or 2 big wins, Towson at 7-4 with two FBS losses, and Delaware at 7-3 with no FBS.

[van]

They can only be 7-3 DI. That DII game might really matter.

I did not say 8-3 D1, don't start getting political ad on me!

[citdog]

I did not say 8-3 D1, don't start getting political ad on me!

we ALL recognize that you of the patriot league play no one of any consequence. A 7 win team in your league with ooc games against leagues even worse than yours or the ivy league which is better and that isn't saying much. A 7 win with an fbs loss from the Southern would win your league EVERY YEAR. if the SoCon has one they'll be in. you watch