Worse case scenario

[URMite]

What is the worse case (but reasonable) scenario for your conference for the playoffs?

In the CAA, I would think it would be Delaware losing to Towson & then beating both Richmond & Nova. Which would mean we would need JMU to win 2 of 3 tough games to be a third 8 Div I winner.xblehx

I may be wrong but the MVFC's disaster scenario looks like NDSU winning out, while SDSU loses to SIU & ISUb loses to ISUr. Would that leave two 8 Div I winners? Is that right?

[TheRevSFA]

The worse case scenario for our conference is Sam losing to SELA...then SELA losing to SFA.

Sam would sit at 7-4..and be a bubble team as opposed to being in.

[WrenFGun]

What is the worse case (but reasonable) scenario for your conference for the playoffs?

In the CAA, I would think it would be Delaware losing to Towson & then beating both Richmond & Nova. Which would mean we would need JMU to win 2 of 3 tough games to be a third 8 Div I winner.xblehx

I may be wrong but the MVFC's disaster scenario looks like NDSU winning out, while SDSU loses to SIU & ISUb loses to ISUr. Would that leave one 8 Div I winner? Is that right?xeekx

I might argue the most LIKELY scenario is that YSU, SIU, Indiana State, Illinois State and SD State finish with 7 DI wins in the MVFC. I also think the OVC has some hellish scenarios if Tennessee State beats UTM but does not win out.

In the CAA, There is definitely a decent shot for only two teams to have 8 DI wins but I do think that Richmond is the most obvious third candidate and should be projected to make it at this point.

[Sammy94]

Sam would sit at 7-4..and be a bubble team as opposed to being in.

Sam would be done, not bubble. 6 D1 wins won't do it

[TheRevSFA]

Sam would be done, not bubble. 6 D1 wins won't do it

6 D1 wins can still get you in..but probably not this year with the records of others.

Needless to say, Sam probably will have no trouble with SELA and NW State.

[BEAR]

What happens if NWST pulls the upset this weekend at UCA? and the other SLC teams win except Sam? YIKES! xlolx

[Sammy94]

Sam probably will have no trouble with SELA and NW State.

I agree and the thread stated reasonable. My bad.

[TheRevSFA]

What happens if NWST pulls the upset this weekend at UCA? and the other SLC teams win except Sam? YIKES! xlolx

It'd be

UCA 5-2
SELA 4-1
Sam 4-2
NW State 3-2
SFA 3-2

Now let's say Sam wins against NW State the following week, and SFA wins against SELA

UCA 5-2
Sam 5-2
SFA 4-2
SELA 4-2
NW State 3-3

..and then let's say SFA beats NW State the following week

SELA 5-2
SFA 5-2
UCA 5-2
Sam 5-2

SLC Tie Breakers

SELA would be 1-2 With wins over Sam, losses to SFA and UCA
SFA would be 2-1 with wins over SELA, UCA and loss to Sam
Sam would be 1-2 with a win over SFA and a loss to SELA and UCA
UCA would be 2-1 with wins over Sam and SELA and a loss to SFA

SFA 2-1 vs UCA 2-1 - SFA holds the tiebreaker.

[URMite]

6 D1 wins can still get you in..but probably not this year with the records of others.

Needless to say, Sam probably will have no trouble with SELA and NW State.

Is SELA that bad? I thought they looked border line a couple weeks ago.

[TheRevSFA]

Is SELA that bad? I thought they looked border line a couple weeks ago.

Not that they're bad, but Sam hasn't lost in Huntsville in a while. If the game was in Hammond I'd think that SELA would have a better shot at winning

[DFW HOYA]

PL best case: Two bids, one advances to quarterfinals, loses to MVC team
PL likely case: One bid, out in second round to CAA team
PL worst case: One bid, out in first round to NEC team

[TheRevSFA]

What I put is probably not reasonable as it won't happen..but it is worst case..

[melloware13]

Unlikely worst-case scenario for CAA

11/3
Delaware over Towson
W&M over UNH
GSU over ODU
Maine over JMU
URI over Richmond

11/10
W&M over ODU
Nova over JMU
GSU over Maine
URI over Towson
Richmond over Delaware

11/17
Towson over UNH
URI over Maine
W&M over Richmond
Delaware over Nova
ODU over JMU

Hypothetical CAA Standings
1. Old Dominion 8-3 (5-3)
2. New Hampshire 7-4 (5-3)
3. Villanova 7-4 (5-3)
4. Delaware 7-4 (4-4)
5. Richmond 6-5 (4-4)
6. James Madison 6-5 (4-4)
7. William & Mary 5-6 (4-4)
8. Towson 5-6 (4-4)
9. Maine 4-7 (3-5)
10. Rhode Island 3-8 (3-5)
11. Georgia State 3-8

At most: ODU, UNH, Nova in (auto-bid between UNH and Nova)

[BEAR]

There are still some players from the 2008 SLC first place team still on the 2012 one as seniors....let's just say they are ready to actually win it this time. xlolx

[Reign of Terrier]

Absolute worst scenario is the Citadel losing at least one more, app losing to Furman and GSU, and wofford dropping the next 2.

The result being: only GSU making the playoffs.

But the realistic worst scenario I think is the socon getting only Wofford/App and GSU in, but we will likely get all 3, with the citadel likely getting a nod if they win out.

[RabidRabbit]

SELA has no OOC wins, 2 FBS losses + losses to UT-Martin & SDSU. The only way SELA would be eligible is to win the AQ.

However, kudos to SE LA 1st year HC, to still be in the discussion in November. IIRC, that's the first time since the Lions restarted football in 2003.

[Nova09]

ODU GSU WM JMU Lose all 3 5-3 7-4
UNH WM Towson Lose both 5-3 7-4
JMU Maine Nova ODU Lose first 2, beat ODU 5-3 7-4
NOVA JMU Del Beat JMU, Lose to Del 5-3 7-4
Towson Del URI UNH Lose to Del, win other 2 5-3 6-5
Richmond URI Del WM Lose to Del, win other 2 5-3 7-4
Del Towson Rich Nova Win all 3 5-3 7-3
Maine JMU GSU URI Win all 3 5-3 6-5

Sorry for the formatting, copied a spreadsheet. And I know ODU losing to GaSt is completely ridiculous, but other than that I don't think any specific game is all that unlikely, and with ODU not eligible for autobid that would still be a crazy tiebreaker scenario.

[Walkon79]

Worst case scenario for the Big Sky in general would involve Portland State, UM, SUU and UCD all catching fire at the end of the season. It's a long shot, but would seriously screw up most of our hopes for a seed. All of these teams are capable of messing with the Big Sky a ton between now and November 17th.

[walliver]

The SoCon could potentially have 4 champions tied at 6-2. I doubt all 4 would get bids (chatty would only have 6 D-1 wins) WC (8-3), GSU (8-3), and ASU (7-4) would get in in that case.

This assumes that ASU beats GSU and Chatt beats Wofford. I also assume the SoCon teams lose their SEC games.

[URMite]

The SoCon could potentially have 4 champions tied at 6-2. I doubt all 4 would get bids (chatty would only have 6 D-1 wins) WC (8-3), GSU (8-3), and ASU (7-4) would get in in that case.

This assumes that ASU beats GSU and Chatt beats Wofford. I also assume the SoCon teams lose their SEC games.

Yes, this is worse case, not best case. Otherwise JSU would be in the discussion by going 8-3 with a win over the Gators.

[melloware13]

ODU GSU WM JMU Lose all 3 5-3 7-4
UNH WM Towson Lose both 5-3 7-4
JMU Maine Nova ODU Lose first 2, beat ODU 5-3 7-4
NOVA JMU Del Beat JMU, Lose to Del 5-3 7-4
Towson Del URI UNH Lose to Del, win other 2 5-3 6-5
Richmond URI Del WM Lose to Del, win other 2 5-3 7-4
Del Towson Rich Nova Win all 3 5-3 7-3
Maine JMU GSU URI Win all 3 5-3 6-5

Sorry for the formatting, copied a spreadsheet. And I know ODU losing to GaSt is completely ridiculous, but other than that I don't think any specific game is all that unlikely, and with ODU not eligible for autobid that would still be a crazy tiebreaker scenario.

Since ODU isn't eligible for the Auto-bid, you could rule them out and still have the massive tie (for second, with ODU 6-2 in conference). The records among the tied teams would be:
UNH (3-1)
Maine (4-3)
Delaware (3-2)
Towson (3-2)
Richmond (2-2)
JMU (2-3)
Nova (2-3)

If that is used for the tiebreak, then it'd be UNH gets the auto bid, with ODU, Del, JMU, Richmond, Nova all at least having 7 D1 wins

[mamberso]

In a way, the worst case scenario for the OVC has already happened. Eastern Kentucky, who I thought had a legitimate shot at making a run in the playoffs this season, has dropped two of its last four games. EKU is now out of the top 25, and only has two games left. Two of the three teams atop the OVC have a good shot at making the tournament (Tennessee State, UT-Martin, and Eastern Illinois). However, it could play out to where only one gets in. That would leave the OVC with only one opportunity to break the playoff drought (1996 if you are keeping track).

[Skyhawk71]

OVC worst case scenario: (opponents & how this could happen in Playoff Prediction thread; I'm sure there is a way to bring it over here, but I'm not there yet on using the board)
TSU 5-2
UTM 6-2
EIU 5-2
EKU 6-2
EIU 6-2
* made possible by the lack of a matchup between TSU & EIU, not beating that dead horse, just saying that is how you get to a five way tie, not that a four way is any better

[dgtw]

If this happens, how do they break the tie? Everyone would have gotten their two losses within the group, so that doesn't help. Will they just draw a name out of a hat?

[Mr. Pink]

Consider GSU loses to App and Wofford loses to UTC. App beats Furman, Both GSU and Woff lose their SEC matchups, GSU beats howard, and Woff beats sammy...

This is not an unlikey scenario, and it leaves the SOCON with three 8-3 teams and not a single one will be seeded...

[Skyhawk71]

If this happens, how do they break the tie? Everyone would have gotten their two losses within the group, so that doesn't help. Will they just draw a name out of a hat?

Ohio Valley Conference multiple tie-breaker #5: If the first four options are not met in a multiple tie (which are dependant on all tied teams playing each other) then the conference office will hold a blind draw to determine the representative......yep

[Skyhawk71]

This could be the highest rated show in the history the OVC Digital Network- that last Saturday night before they have to submit the rep to the committee- skip the blind draw and just spin a wheel, even more exciting.............xbeerchugx