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Go Apps
October 31st, 2012, 07:11 AM
Bracket I:
Cal Poly vs Illinois State winner at No. 1 NDSU
Indiana State @ Montana State

Wofford vs Richmond winner at No. 4 ODU
N Hampshire @ No. 5 Lehigh

Bracket II:
C. Arkansas vs Bethune winner at No. 3 GSU
Stoney Brook @ Tenn State

Albany vs Villanova winner at No. 2 N. Arizona
E Washington @ Sam Houston State

WileECoyote06
October 31st, 2012, 07:58 AM
UNH @ Cal Poly winner to 1. NDSU
Sam Houston State @ Eastern Washington

Wofford @ Bethune-Cookman winner to 4. ODU
Northern Arizona @ 5. Lehigh

Richmond @ SDSU winner to 2. Georgia Southern
Albany @ Stony Brook

TN-Martin @ Central Arkansas winner to 3. Montana State
Indiana State @ Tennessee State

Last In: TN-Martin, Richmond, UCA
Last Out: Eastern Illinois, Eastern Kentucky, Villanova, James Madison
Next four out: Delaware, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Sacramento State

Sammy94
October 31st, 2012, 09:41 AM
Richmond @ Tenn.-Martin winner to #3 ODU
Lehigh @ Cent. Ark.

Wofford @ Bethune-Cookman winner to #1 NDSU
Indiana St. @ Eastern Washington

Albany @ James Madison winner to #2 GSU
Stony Brook @ New Hampshire

Cal Poly @ Tenn. St. winner to #4 Mont. St.
Northern Arizona @ #5 SHSU

WrenFGun
October 31st, 2012, 10:25 AM
Northern Arizona (8-2)
Cal Poly (9-2)
EWU (9-2)
Sacramento State (8-3)
Stony Brook (9-1)
UNH (9-2)
ODU (10-1)
Richmond (8-3)
Bethune Cookman (8-3)
Indiana State (7-3, FBS win)
North Dakota State (10-1)
Southern Illinois (7-4, likely only two conference losses)
Albany (10-1)
Tennessee State (9-2)
UTM (9-2)
Lehigh (11-0)
Georgia Southern (9-2)
Wofford (9-2)
UCA (9-2)
Sam (7-3)

Last Teams Out: Montana State (7-3 .. losses to Montana and Sac. State) .. every major conference 7-4 team, + EIU.

Bethune-Cookman@UTM Winner at #1 NDSU
UCA at Cal Poly

Sacramento State@Sam Houston State winner at #4 EWU
Indiana State at #5 Lehigh

Tennessee State@Richmond winner at #2 Georgia Southern
Wofford at NAU

Albany@SIU winner at #3 ODU
New Hampshire at Stony Brook

..I suck at regionalization.

UNH_Alum_In_CT
October 31st, 2012, 11:04 AM
Wren, can you have that matchup with a potential Sac State vs EWU game in the 2nd round? It would be EWU's first game and I didn't think you could have two teams from the same league playing in that case? xconfusedx xconfusedx

From your 1st round schools, SIU vs UTM would be a bus game so I'm thinking that would be scheduled.

I think like you that if UNH and Stony Brook both get first round byes, then they're meeting and it will be on the Island. SBU-UNH will be a bus game, SBU will make a significant bid and they have the better facility. Of course, UNH has to win two games before this can be really be taken too seriously. ;) It would be a good way to initiate a new CAA rivalry though!!

Go Apps
October 31st, 2012, 11:19 AM
Wren, can you have that matchup with a potential Sac State vs EWU game in the 2nd round? It would be EWU's first game and I didn't think you could have two teams from the same league playing in that case? xconfusedx xconfusedx

From your 1st round schools, SIU vs UTM would be a bus game so I'm thinking that would be scheduled.

I think like you that if UNH and Stony Brook both get first round byes, then they're meeting and it will be on the Island. SBU-UNH will be a bus game, SBU will make a significant bid and they have the better facility. Of course, UNH has to win two games before this can be really be taken too seriously. ;) It would be a good way to initiate a new CAA rivalry though!!

Yes no first round matchup but all bets are off on the second round conference matchups

Professor Chaos
October 31st, 2012, 11:19 AM
This is my projection as the teams stand now, not as I think they will end up.

Bethune-Cookman @ Appalachian St
at
1) North Dakota St

Wofford
at
Cal Poly

Indiana St @ Tennessee St
at
4) Eastern Washington

Northern Arizona
at
5) Sam Houston St

New Hampshire @ Albany
at
2) Georgia Southern

Stony Brook
at
Old Dominion

Central Arkansas @ South Dakota St
at
3) Montana St

Lehigh
at
James Madison

Bids: Big Sky - 4, MVFC - 3, CAA - 3, SOCON - 3, Southland - 2, OVC/Patriot/Big South/MEAC/NEC - 1
Last 4 (at larges) in: Old Dominion, New Hampshire, South Dakota St, Appalachian St
First 4 out: Illinois St, Sacramento St, Tennessee-Martin, Villanova

TheRevSFA
October 31st, 2012, 11:26 AM
Serious ? - how do you have UCA as the last four in when they will get the AQ (with a win on Saturday)

Jacked_Rabbit
October 31st, 2012, 11:28 AM
Bethune-Cookman @ Appalachian St
at
1) North Dakota St

Wofford at Cal Poly

Indiana St @ Tennessee St
4) Eastern Washington

Northern Arizona at 5) Sam Houston St

New Hampshire at Albany
2) Georgia Southern

Stony Brook at Old Dominion

Central Arkansas @ South Dakota St
3) Montana St

Lehigh at James Madison

Bids: Big Sky - 4, MVFC - 3, CAA - 3, SOCON - 3, Southland - 2, OVC/Patriot/Big South/MEAC/NEC - 1
Last 4 in: New Hampshire, Central Arkansas, South Dakota St, Appalchican St
First 4 out: Illinois St, Sacramento St, Tennessee-Martin, Villanova

Of those that have been posted, this is the best one I've seen thus far. Nice work, Prof.

Professor Chaos
October 31st, 2012, 11:41 AM
Serious ? - how do you have UCA as the last four in when they will get the AQ (with a win on Saturday)
Good point, I'll change it.

Eaglesrus
October 31st, 2012, 11:43 AM
Of those that have been posted, this is the best one I've seen thus far. Nice work, Prof.

Second

TheRevSFA
October 31st, 2012, 11:58 AM
Good point, I'll change it.

Other than that I agree with it xthumbsupx

UNH_Alum_In_CT
October 31st, 2012, 12:13 PM
Yes no first round matchup but all bets are off on the second round conference matchups

Not so sure about that. Why am I recalling that rule about the first playoff game for a team not being a conference team?

Of course with the CAA, OVC, MVFC, MEAC and BSC not having all their teams meet, the rules should be amended to say if they actually played during the season.

UNH_Alum_In_CT
October 31st, 2012, 12:17 PM
If Albany and UNH were to meet in this year's playoffs, I think the game is in Durham. While Cowell Stadium is bad, Albany is even worse. I've been there! And I've had multiple Albany fans tell me it's worse than Cowell. Once Albany opens their new stadium, no question the game would be in Albany.

Twentysix
October 31st, 2012, 12:21 PM
Wren, can you have that matchup with a potential Sac State vs EWU game in the 2nd round? It would be EWU's first game and I didn't think you could have two teams from the same league playing in that case? xconfusedx xconfusedx

From your 1st round schools, SIU vs UTM would be a bus game so I'm thinking that would be scheduled.

I think like you that if UNH and Stony Brook both get first round byes, then they're meeting and it will be on the Island. SBU-UNH will be a bus game, SBU will make a significant bid and they have the better facility. Of course, UNH has to win two games before this can be really be taken too seriously. ;) It would be a good way to initiate a new CAA rivalry though!!

The rule is that it cannot be both teams first playoff game. So long as one has already played a game its totally kosher.

WileECoyote06
October 31st, 2012, 12:23 PM
Of those that have been posted, this is the best one I've seen thus far. Nice work, Prof.

Does the fact that the Jackrabbits are hosting a second round game have a lot to do with this opinion? xlolx

WrenFGun
October 31st, 2012, 12:23 PM
Not so sure about that. Why am I recalling that rule about the first playoff game for a team not being a conference team?

Of course with the CAA, OVC, MVFC, MEAC and BSC not having all their teams meet, the rules should be amended to say if they actually played during the season.

I believe this changed with the inception of first round games; as long as ONE of the teams plays in the first round, the rule is overlooked.

The MVFC is literally pick some teams out of a hat at this point.

Twentysix
October 31st, 2012, 12:24 PM
Does the fact that the Jackrabbits are hosting a second round game have a lot to do with this opinion? xlolx

Jacks will likely be 8-3 (6-2) in the MVFC. With OOC wins over the Bigsky and the Southland. They most likely will.

Professor Chaos
October 31st, 2012, 12:30 PM
Does the fact that the Jackrabbits are hosting a second round game have a lot to do with this opinion? xlolx
I just have them hosting a first round game and going to Montana St if they win.

Reign of Terrier
October 31st, 2012, 12:34 PM
Perhaps it's my sour grapes for not wanting to see Wofford travel to another time zone for the 4th time in 6 years, but I think the geographic distribution of these brackets is somewhat poor.

I just don't buy the notion of Wofford traveling to the west coast, at a possible record of 9-2.

WileECoyote06
October 31st, 2012, 12:35 PM
Sidebar: In the two years since they've adopted an opening round of eight; no ten win team has been denied a bye (BCU and Lehigh). I'd be surprised to see a 10-1 Albany dropped to the first round.

WileECoyote06
October 31st, 2012, 12:41 PM
Jacks will likely be 8-3 (6-2) in the MVFC. With OOC wins over the Bigsky and the Southland. They most likely will.

And I'd argue it's deserved. However, based on the past actions of the committee, I wouldn't be surprised if Albany is bumped into the second round, thus leaving it between them and Indiana State/Illinois State for the last first round spot.

I think Ill State loses to Indiana State which eliminates them, and even though SDSU defeated Indiana State at home, ISU has a better win over NDSU, and one more win at 9 - 2 and they climb into the second round.

Just my prediction. *shrug*

Sycamore51
October 31st, 2012, 12:41 PM
A lot of people have faith that Indiana St can win one of their last two games. The past two years have shown us not to count those chickens yet my friends.

WrenFGun
October 31st, 2012, 12:44 PM
A lot of people have faith that Indiana St can win one of their last two games. The past two years have shown us not to count those chickens yet my friends.

I think ISU-B will go 1-1, but with 2 losses in the MVFC I think they will make it (like SIU). I expect Ill. State and SDSU to have 3 MVFC losses.

ITmonarch10
October 31st, 2012, 12:48 PM
This is my projection as the teams stand now, not as I think they will end up.

Bethune-Cookman @ Appalachian St
at
1) North Dakota St

Wofford
at
Cal Poly

Indiana St @ Tennessee St
at
4) Eastern Washington

Northern Arizona
at
5) Sam Houston St

New Hampshire @ Albany
at
2) Georgia Southern

Stony Brook
at
Old Dominion

Central Arkansas @ South Dakota St
at
3) Montana St

Lehigh
at
James Madison

Bids: Big Sky - 4, MVFC - 3, CAA - 3, SOCON - 3, Southland - 2, OVC/Patriot/Big South/MEAC/NEC - 1
Last 4 (at larges) in: Old Dominion, New Hampshire, South Dakota St, Appalachian St
First 4 out: Illinois St, Sacramento St, Tennessee-Martin, Villanova

I don't see GSU being a seed if ASU makes into the playoffs. ASU would not be first in line at 7-4 either.

BEAR
October 31st, 2012, 12:49 PM
I don't know how the brackets work..but I'll be glad if UCA hosts a first round game in Conway this year! Only our third year eligible for the playoffs and Saturday decides if we not only win the conference (share) but get an autobid..nice job by a team that lost some pretty good talent. Don't know if we will get very far, but nothing beats a playoff game anywhere!

frozennorth
October 31st, 2012, 01:06 PM
1) NDSU 10-1
vs BCU @ app

Wofford 9-2 @ EWU 8-3

4) ODU 10-1
vs Indiana state @ tenn su

5) MSU 10-1 vs albany


2) CAL POLY 10-1
vs NAU @ shsu

UCA @ SDSU

3) GSU 9-2
vs SBU @ UNH

Lehigh @ jmu

Go Apps
October 31st, 2012, 02:03 PM
Perhaps it's my sour grapes for not wanting to see Wofford travel to another time zone for the 4th time in 6 years, but I think the geographic distribution of these brackets is somewhat poor.

I just don't buy the notion of Wofford traveling to the west coast, at a possible record of 9-2.

Then have Jerry Richardson outbid your foe

bostonspider
October 31st, 2012, 02:05 PM
Those that do not have Richmond in the field, is it that you think the Spiders will lose one of their last three games (URI, UD, @ W&M) or do you not think they will make the field at 8-3 (6-2 CAA) with losses to @UVA, ODU and @UNH. And wins over JMU, UD and Villanova?

Walkon79
October 31st, 2012, 02:12 PM
UNH @ Cal Poly winner to 1. NDSU
Sam Houston State @ Eastern Washington

Wofford @ Bethune-Cookman winner to 4. ODU
Northern Arizona @ 5. Lehigh

Richmond @ SDSU winner to 2. Georgia Southern
Albany @ Stony Brook

TN-Martin @ Central Arkansas winner to 3. Montana State
Indiana State @ Tennessee State

Last In: TN-Martin, Richmond, UCA
Last Out: Eastern Illinois, Eastern Kentucky, Villanova, James Madison
Next four out: Delaware, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Sacramento State

I like this one, Can i second?

WileECoyote06
October 31st, 2012, 02:38 PM
I like this one, Can i second?


Thanks I thought really carefully about it, and tried to apply the rules and reasoning the committee has applied in the past. I also considered the remaining schedules of the teams who are contending for spots.

Reign of Terrier
October 31st, 2012, 03:04 PM
Then have Jerry Richardson outbid your foe

We've done it before. Richmond, GSU, etc. The thing is that we usually need help. But at 9-2 we should be good to not travel farther than one timezone, as we usually only travel far at 8-3.

MTfan4life
October 31st, 2012, 03:42 PM
I love how quickly this thread got off topic from the OP asked for, haha.


1. North Dakota State
@Sam Houston State
Cal Poly


@Central Arkansas
Eastern Washington


5. Montana State
Lehigh

@South Dakota State
Villanova

4. Northern Arizona


3. Old Dominion
@Bethune Cookman
Tennessee Martin


@Stony Brook
New Hampshire


@Indiana State
Wofford

@Richmond
Albany

2. Georgia Southern

Last teams in: Cal Poly, South Dakota State, Villanova, Richmond
Last teams out: McNeese State, The Citadel, Eastern Kentucky, Appalachian State
Next four out: Sacramento State, Eastern Illinois, Tennessee State, Illinois State

The bubble is a mess right now.

Engineer86
October 31st, 2012, 03:47 PM
Those that do not have Richmond in the field, is it that you think the Spiders will lose one of their last three games (URI, UD, @ W&M) or do you not think they will make the field at 8-3 (6-2 CAA) with losses to @UVA, ODU and @UNH. And wins over JMU, UD and Villanova?

Must be expecting a loss. I don't see how they do not get in if they win out.

URMite
October 31st, 2012, 04:49 PM
Must be expecting a loss. I don't see how they do not get in if they win out.

I'm not as certain. Right now I estimate a 1/5 chance that there will be 12 at-large candidates with 8 div I wins (or more) and a decent SOS by 11/18. Ok, 11 plus a 7-3 SHSU with losses to Baylor&TAMU. Hopefully it will work itself out before then. It just seems it is a week late. I don't see any 4 loss team getting in, but that could change too.

WrenFGun
November 4th, 2012, 08:35 AM
Updated for 11/3:

Big Sky (Projected W-L):
NAU (9-2, 7-1)
Montana State (9-2, 6-2)
EWU (9-2, 7-1)
Cal Poly (9-2, 6-2)

Big South
Stony Brook (10-1, 8-0)

CAA:
New Hampshire (9-2, 7-1)
Old Dominion (10-1, 7-1)
Richmond (8-3, 6-2)
James Madison (8-3, 6-2)

MEAC:
Bethune Cookman (9-2, 8-0)

MVFC:
NDSU (10-1, 7-1)
SDSU (8-3, 6-2)
ISU-r (8-3, 5-3)

NEC:
Wagner (8-3, 7-1)

OVC:
UTM (9-2, 7-1)

Patriot
Lehigh (11-0, 8-0)

SoCON:
Appalachian State (8-3, 6-2)
Georgia Southern (8-3, 6-2)

SLC:
UCA (9-2, 6-1)
Sam Houston State (7-3, 6-1)

First Team Out: Eastern Kentucky (8-3, 6-2) -- lost to TSU, but less conference losses. Win over UTM. In if JMU or Richmond fail to get to 8 DI wins.
Second Team Out: Wofford (8-3, 6-2) -- only 7 DI wins, and at best, 1-2 in final 3. Win over Appalachian State, conference title share.

To note, I do not expect the following teams to reach 7 DI wins at this time: Villanova (loss to JMU, loss to UD), ISU-b (loss to YSU). I expect YSU (7 DI wins) to be out due to 4 DI losses.

Seeds:

1. NDSU
2. ODU
3. EWU
4. UNH
5. Montana State

Wagner@Cal Poly at #1 NDSU
UCA at Georgia Southern

UTM@JMU at #4 UNH
Lehigh at Stony Brook

ISU-r@Richmond at #2 ODU
NAU at Appalachian State

Bethune Cookman@SHSU at #3 EWU
South Dakota State at Montana State

..wouldn't focus on the matchups or seeds so much (for instance, Stony Brook and Lehigh could easily be #4 or #5 ..), but thoughts on teams?