Let's Talk Seeds

[Appattk]

3 weeks left... 3 weeks for teams to improve their resume to "earn" their playoff seeds.

I'm curious to see what you guys think....

My list so far:

Definites...

#1 NDSU (Best resume despite the loss to Indiana St. Also has the glow of last year's championship hanging on them)
#2 GSU (Loss to Citadel early in the season has lost its impact. I don't believe a late season loss to Georgia (FBS) will hurt them)
#3 ODU (Can't get the CAA Autobid and should they win out have a pretty darn good resume with wins over JMU & UNH)

Up in the air...

Eastern Washington or N. Arizona: Eastern Washington will probably go into the final few weeks with a higher ranking, but NAU is in the driver's seat for the Big Sky Auto..
Wofford: Does Wofford have the resume to get that #5 seed?
Montana State: Yet another West Coast team that has a pretty darn good resume...

[melloware13]

I think if the CAA gets a seed, it's between UNH or ODU. If ODU wins out, it favors them. If ODU falls and UNH wins out, UNH should get a seed. If both fall, could have no CAA seeds again.

[DJnva]

UNH may get the CAA autobid, but ODU will be a higher rank than either UNH or JMU should they win out. They need to be on your list.

[Appattk]

For some reason I thought ODU wasn't eligible for a seed??

I had them at #3 until I thought their move up to FBS kept them from getting the seed... Or is it the autobid? Or am I just hallucinating?

[eaglewraith]

For some reason I thought ODU wasn't eligible for a seed??

Only thing they're not eligible for is the CAA autobid.

CAA doesn't set seeds, the NCAA Playoff Committee does.

[DJnva]

For some reason I thought ODU wasn't eligible for a seed??

They only "sanction" is by the CAA, not the NCAA or FCS playoffs...

[URMite]

ODU is not eligible for the AQ. Besides that as far as I know, they are like everyone else.

[frozennorth]

cal poly and stony brook need to be in the conversation for a seed, and indiana state and sdsu are just on the outside

[Redwyn]

cal poly and stony brook need to be in the conversation for a seed, and indiana state and sdsu are just on the outside

Yeah, I was always a bit amused/bemused that SBU isn't in more active conversations about a seed. They are extremely consistent week in and week out, have only one close FCS loss to Colgate, who appears to be having a solid season, and boasts a well above average QB and top tier WR and RB corps.

Do I expect a top 4 seed? No. But I do expect us to host a 2nd round playoff game. Especially if we finish out the season undefeated.

[Appattk]

cal poly and stony brook need to be in the conversation for a seed, and indiana state and sdsu are just on the outside

I don't think a Big South team will get a seed until they figure out how to win a playoff game.

Cal Poly is outside looking in at a seed and could legitimately earn one should they knock off both EWU and NAU. Their biggest problem is such a recent loss to Sac State... That really hurt...

IMHO of course...

[Redwyn]

I don't think a Big South team will get a seed until they figure out how to win a playoff game.

Cal Poly is outside looking in at a seed and could legitimately earn one should they knock off both EWU and NAU. Their biggest problem is such a recent loss to Sac State... That really hurt...

IMHO of course...

SBU won its first round game and took #1 Sam Houston State to the 4th quarter in 2011..........next?

[Hawk98]

Lehigh at 11-0 is at least in the conversation for a 5 seed, regardless of the popular opinion here.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Lehigh at 11-0 is at least in the conversation for a 5 seed, regardless of the popular opinion here.

Lehigh will absolutely be in the convo and I think will receive one should they win their final 3 games.

[Appattk]

SBU won its first round game and took #1 Sam Houston State to the 4th quarter in 2011..........next?

Was that a play-in game? Have they played SHSU this year? If you look at SB's resume there's nothing there to really hang your hat on...

#1 The next best Big South Team is 4-4
#2 The big FBS win is against a team that's now 1-7
#3 "Close" win over Colgate is a good mark... but then again Colgate is a Patriot League team
#4 The combined win/loss record of all of SB's opponents so far this year is a paltry 24 - 49.. That's a win rate of 33%

[Appattk]

Lehigh's biggest problem doesn't stem from the play on the field... It's the perception that the Patriot League is a substandard league.....

That and the fact that they haven't "played" anyone this year...

[Redwyn]

Was that a play-in game? Have they played SHSU this year? If you look at SB's resume there's nothing there to really hang your hat on...

#1 The next best Big South Team is 4-4
#2 The big FBS win is against a team that's now 1-7
#3 "Close" win over Colgate is a good mark... but then again Colgate is a Patriot League team
#4 The combined win/loss record of all of SB's opponents so far this year is a paltry 24 - 49.. That's a win rate of 33%

There is no play-in game in FCS playoffs. I'm confused what you mean by that. This isn't the basketball tournament. The quality of 1st round programs isn't a humongous step below that of those who were given byes like it is for basketball.

I'm not disputing the weak schedule, but I am disputing that SBU should be out of the competition simply because of the performance of its opponents. A team can only control how it plays, not how its opponents play. Despite the weight of poor SOS SBU is still #91 in RealtimeRPI, in the top 10 FCS and ahead of ~25 FBS programs. It also hasn't had a real "hiccup" this season, outright dominating opponents, including Army.

End of the day, I hold to my original point- I don't SBU as a top 4 seed purely because of your reasons. We don't have a marquee FCS win. That said, a team can only play the schedule its given. SBU has done that admirably. #5 is not unreasonable, esp with the expected drop of Cal Poly. Still 2 weeks left of the season....

[Hawk98]

That perception exists on this board, but I'm not convinced it exists in the committee room. They did get a bye last year at 10-1, and then won on the road ... that will count for something with the committee.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

That perception exists on this board, but I'm not convinced it exists in the committee room. They did get a bye last year at 10-1, and then won on the road ... that will count for something with the committee.


Finishing 11-0 or 10-1 this year will probably get you a seed.

But looking at your schedule, as a fan of another FCS conference, I would love to see these teams on my schedule every year:

Monmouth
CCS
Princeton
Liberty
Fordham
Columbia
Georgetown
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Colgate
Lafayette

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Finishing 11-0 or 10-1 this year will probably get you a seed.

But looking at your schedule, as a fan of another FCS conference, I would love to see these teams on my schedule every year:

Monmouth
CCS
Princeton
Liberty
Fordham
Columbia
Georgetown
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Colgate
Lafayette

Everyone knew coming into the year that the schedule wasn't up to its usual strength. With that said, 11 D1 games, no PFL teams make it a little better. The Columbia game is really the only eyesore imo.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

There is no play-in game in FCS playoffs. I'm confused what you mean by that. This isn't the basketball tournament. The quality of 1st round programs isn't a humongous step below that of those who were given byes like it is for basketball.

I'm not disputing the weak schedule, but I am disputing that SBU should be out of the competition simply because of the performance of its opponents. A team can only control how it plays, not how its opponents play. Despite the weight of poor SOS SBU is still #91 in RealtimeRPI, in the top 10 FCS and ahead of ~25 FBS programs. It also hasn't had a real "hiccup" this season, outright dominating opponents, including Army.

End of the day, I hold to my original point- I don't SBU as a top 4 seed purely because of your reasons. We don't have a marquee FCS win. That said, a team can only play the schedule its given. SBU has done that admirably. #5 is not unreasonable, esp with the expected drop of Cal Poly. Still 2 weeks left of the season....

The bottom 4, soon to be bottom 8 will basically be considered play ins although they aren't specifically called that, because the top 16 don't have to play that weekend.

[UNH Fanboi]

The bottom 4, soon to be bottom 8 will basically be considered play ins although they aren't specifically called that, because the top 16 don't have to play that weekend.

It's bottom 8, soon to be bottom 16.

[Hawk98]

The bottom 4, soon to be bottom 8 will basically be considered play ins although they aren't specifically called that, because the top 16 don't have to play that weekend.

Again, this is the only place I see them called playins. Everywhere else it's the first round.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

Again, this is the only place I see them called playins. Everywhere else it's the first round.

Same as the basketball tournament. They don't call them play in either, just the "1st round"

Would you consider them anything else?

[NoDak 4 Ever]

It's bottom 8, soon to be bottom 16.

I was coming off the top of my head. I had a hunch that was wrong. Thanks for the correction.

[Hawk98]

The basketball is 2 games to get into a round of 32 games ... that's a play-in.

Football is 4 games to get into a round of 8 games ... that's not as dramatic as an obvious play-in, and is more of a legitimate round. Next year, 8 games to get into a round of 8 games is certainly a legit round.

[LehighU11]

Yeah, I was always a bit amused/bemused that SBU isn't in more active conversations about a seed. They are extremely consistent week in and week out, have only one close FCS loss to Colgate, who appears to be having a solid season, and boasts a well above average QB and top tier WR and RB corps.

Do I expect a top 4 seed? No. But I do expect us to host a 2nd round playoff game. Especially if we finish out the season undefeated.

Stony Brook is undefeated against FCS opponents...they beat Colgate, though it was close. The one loss on their slate came against a solid Syracuse team.

[Hawk98]

Stony Brook is undefeated against FCS opponents...they beat Colgate, though it was close. The one loss on their slate came against a solid Syracuse team.

Stony Brook belongs in the conversation too, but I think Lehigh multi-year performance will get them the 5 seed over SBU if Lehigh is 11-0. Lehigh at 10-1/SB at 10-1, I would give it to Stony Brook.

[LehighU11]

Everyone knew coming into the year that the schedule wasn't up to its usual strength. With that said, 11 D1 games, no PFL teams make it a little better. The Columbia game is really the only eyesore imo.

Hey, Columbia's having a strong season by their standards! 2 wins, 1 OOC and the other against Yale.

I was really hoping Princeton would beat Cornell yesterday. Still, they can win out and be guaranteed the Ivy League title. That might help Lehigh's cause a bit. Had Princeton finished last in the IL as they had been ranked in pre-season polls, this OOC schedule for Lehigh would have been of more concern.

[Redwyn]

Stony Brook belongs in the conversation too, but I think Lehigh multi-year performance will get them the 5 seed over SBU if Lehigh is 11-0. Lehigh at 10-1/SB at 10-1, I would give it to Stony Brook.

Haha, I screwed up, meant Syracuse. Stony Brook is indeed undefeated vs. FCS, by significant margins in nearly every game too.

I guess we'll see. Who knows what notion will crawl into the committee's heads anyway

[drpnut]

If apply beats ga south, then they would not get a seed, IMO. If wofford beats Stamford, chatty and makes a game of it with South Carolina, then they would have to be in the conversation.

[Appattk]

There is no play-in game in FCS playoffs. I'm confused what you mean by that. This isn't the basketball tournament. The quality of 1st round programs isn't a humongous step below that of those who were given byes like it is for basketball.

I'm not disputing the weak schedule, but I am disputing that SBU should be out of the competition simply because of the performance of its opponents. A team can only control how it plays, not how its opponents play. Despite the weight of poor SOS SBU is still #91 in RealtimeRPI, in the top 10 FCS and ahead of ~25 FBS programs. It also hasn't had a real "hiccup" this season, outright dominating opponents, including Army.

End of the day, I hold to my original point- I don't SBU as a top 4 seed purely because of your reasons. We don't have a marquee FCS win. That said, a team can only play the schedule its given. SBU has done that admirably. #5 is not unreasonable, esp with the expected drop of Cal Poly. Still 2 weeks left of the season....

It's a matter of perception... The first 4 games on Thanksgiving weekend are play-in games... The teams have an extra game they have to play to get into the field.. Plus they are placed against a seed. That weekend game is where many of the "less powerful" teams have to play to get into the playoff field. It might not officially have the official title of a play-in game... but it is. Those 8 teams would LOVE to have a bye week on Thanksgiving weekend.. I guarantee it.

SBU can easily increase the quality of their opponents. If you guys don't get a seed this year I would point the finger at your AD... He's the guy putting things together.

Wasn't it Coastal Carolina a few years back that had a horrible Big South schedule, but really put up a nice resume with OOC games?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

It's a matter of perception... The first 4 games on Thanksgiving weekend are play-in games... The teams have an extra game they have to play to get into the field.. Plus they are placed against a seed. That weekend game is where many of the "less powerful" teams have to play to get into the playoff field. It might not officially have the official title of a play-in game... but it is. Those 8 teams would LOVE to have a bye week on Thanksgiving weekend.. I guarantee it.

SBU can easily increase the quality of their opponents. If you guys don't get a seed this year I would point the finger at your AD... He's the guy putting things together.

Wasn't it Coastal Carolina a few years back that had a horrible Big South schedule, but really put up a nice resume with OOC games?

SBU OOC schedule was Central Conn St., Pace, Colgate, Army and Syracuse. On paper it's a good schedule but the 2 FBS games and 1 D2 games don't really get you anywhere.

They'll be in the CAA next year so I have to imagine they'll actually be "dumbing" down their OOC.

[Twentysix]

As long as NDSU gets a 1 or a 2, I will be pleased.

[Hawk98]

As long as NDSU gets a 1 or a 2, I will be pleased.

Can't imagine they won't unless they drop another game.

[kalm]

3 weeks left... 3 weeks for teams to improve their resume to "earn" their playoff seeds.

I'm curious to see what you guys think....

My list so far:

Definites...

#1 NDSU (Best resume despite the loss to Indiana St. Also has the glow of last year's championship hanging on them)
#2 GSU (Loss to Citadel early in the season has lost its impact. I don't believe a late season loss to Georgia (FBS) will hurt them)
#3 ODU (Can't get the CAA Autobid and should they win out have a pretty darn good resume with wins over JMU & UNH)

Up in the air...

Eastern Washington or N. Arizona: Eastern Washington will probably go into the final few weeks with a higher ranking, but NAU is in the driver's seat for the Big Sky Auto..
Wofford: Does Wofford have the resume to get that #5 seed?
Montana State: Yet another West Coast team that has a pretty darn good resume...

It's still very much up in the air.

Wofford, GSU, and SHSU all have probable loss, FBS games left. So they are all at best 9-2. Looking at this through WCB lenses I don't see how their resume's are any more legit than a 10-1 or 9-2 BSC team, be it MSU, EWU, Poly, or NAU.

I agree that ODU, if they finish at 10-1 is a lock with quality wins over UNH, Delaware, JMU and Richmond, but at 9-2, their OOC resume becomes extremely suspect to say the least. UNH and JMU would certainly have their hats in the ring at 9-2, but something similar could be said regarding their OOC when comparing them to an EWU or NAU with two FBS games this year. They do however, at least have a higher SOS than ODU

In the MVFC, you have Illinois State who could earn a seed by winning their last two against Indiana State and NDSU. Likewise, SDSU could be in the same position if they take care of business against SIU, USD, and upset the Bison. I agree that NDSU is a lock for the #1 seed if they win out but they still have tough tilts left hosting SDSU and Illinois State. At 9-2, the Bison's resume would be no better than the aforementioned other 9-2 teams from power conferences. All of that being said, Indiana State may have the easiest path of all hosting the other ISU and YSU to finish out the season.

The BSC could still potentially see a 10-1 MSU and EWU, Poly, and NAU at 9-2 - all with resume's worthy of a seed.

The wild cards in all of this are Lehigh, Stony Brook, Tennessee State, and Central Arkansas. IMHO, none of them have resume's that are anywhere close to equaling 9-2 teams from the 4 power conferences, but it might be such a cluster**** that one of them gets a seed by default.

[Professor Chaos]

It's still very much up in the air.

Wofford, GSU, and SHSU all have probable loss, FBS games left. So they are all at best 9-2. Looking at this through WCB lenses I don't see how their resume's are any more legit than a 10-1 or 9-2 BSC team, be it MSU, EWU, Poly, or NAU.

I agree that ODU, if they finish at 10-1 is a lock with quality wins over UNH, Delaware, JMU and Richmond, but at 9-2, their OOC resume becomes extremely suspect to say the least. UNH and JMU would certainly have their hats in the ring at 9-2, but something similar could be said regarding their OOC when comparing them to an EWU or NAU with two FBS games this year. They do however, at least have a higher SOS than ODU

In the MVFC, you have Illinois State who could earn a seed by winning their last two against Indiana State and NDSU. Likewise, SDSU could be in the same position if they take care of business against SIU, USD, and upset the Bison. I agree that NDSU is a lock for the #1 seed if they win out but they still have tough tilts left hosting SDSU and Illinois State. At 9-2, the Bison's resume would be no better than the aforementioned other 9-2 teams from power conferences. All of that being said, Indiana State may have the easiest path of all hosting the other ISU and YSU to finish out the season.

The BSC could still potentially see a 10-1 MSU and EWU, Poly, and NAU at 9-2 - all with resume's worthy of a seed.

The wild cards in all of this are Lehigh, Stony Brook, Tennessee State, and Central Arkansas. IMHO, none of them have resume's that are anywhere close to equaling 9-2 teams from the 4 power conferences, but it might be such a cluster**** that one of them gets a seed by default.
The problem is the unbalanced schedule causes abnormalities in the top BSC team's resumes. Northern Arizona only plays one of the other 4 playoff caliber Big Sky teams. Cal Poly and Montana St only play 2. It's going to be interesting to observe how the committee handles that in their seeding decisions. For instance, how do you evaluate a 10-1 NAU team against a 9-2 EWU? Personally, I'd argue that EWU should be seeded higher based on having better quality wins and a better schedule even though NAU would be the outright Big Sky champ without a conference loss.

[kalm]

The problem is the unbalanced schedule causes abnormalities in the top BSC team's resumes. Northern Arizona only plays one of the other 4 playoff caliber Big Sky teams. Cal Poly and Montana St only play 2. It's going to be interesting to observe how the committee handles that in their seeding decisions. For instance, how do you evaluate a 10-1 NAU team against a 9-2 EWU? Personally, I'd argue that EWU should be seeded higher based on having better quality wins and a better schedule even though NAU would be the outright Big Sky champ without a conference loss.

Agreed, but somebody out of the Montana, UND, SUU mix will probably get to 6-5. PSU and Davis are not "quality wins" per se, but they're also not FCS non/partial schollie teams either. Plus, they would have two very good wins against UNLV and Poly. This is one of the reasons why I think the BSC ends up with a decent shot at getting two seeds.

[mtjack]

NAU doesn't deserve any talk this week of getting a seed after struggling in Greeley. I'm a die-hard fan and support them through thick and thin but they underperformed on offense - defense played well - and lacked killer instinct until the end. I know that any road win is a good win but I'll wait to discus the possibility of seeds until after seeing how the final three games go. A top four seed doesn't win on a last second field goal to a struggling (no offense intended, Bears fans) UNC.

[WileECoyote06]

That perception exists on this board, but I'm not convinced it exists in the committee room. They did get a bye last year at 10-1, and then won on the road ... that will count for something with the committee.

And this gets proven every single year.

[seawolf80]

Yeah, I was always a bit amused/bemused that SBU isn't in more active conversations about a seed. They are extremely consistent week in and week out, have only one close FCS loss to Colgate, who appears to be having a solid season, and boasts a well above average QB and top tier WR and RB corps.

Do I expect a top 4 seed? No. But I do expect us to host a 2nd round playoff game. Especially if we finish out the season undefeated.

SBU loss was on the road in a competitive loss at FBS member Syracuse. SBU defeated Colgate.

[seawolf80]

I don't think a Big South team will get a seed until they figure out how to win a playoff game.

Cal Poly is outside looking in at a seed and could legitimately earn one should they knock off both EWU and NAU. Their biggest problem is such a recent loss to Sac State... That really hurt...

IMHO of course...
SBU is a member of the Big South and won a playoff game last year and nearly beat national runnerup Sam Houston State on the road in the 2nd round.

[Longhorn]

I think if the CAA gets a seed, it's between UNH or ODU. If ODU wins out, it favors them. If ODU falls and UNH wins out, UNH should get a seed. If both fall, could have no CAA seeds again.

It's quite possible the CAA won't be seeded (again) as the league so often beats itself up in the regular season.

Food for thought, if JMU wins out they finish 9-2, same possible record as UNH and ODU. However, UNH will have a loss to ODU, and JMU would boast a victory over ODU. A 9-2 record would also give JMU the CAA's AQ over UNH in a tiebreaker. In that scenario I think a strong league boasting 3 teams with 9-2 records gets at least one seed, especially if that team has a big stadium and averages over 23k a game.

[kalm]

It's quite possible the CAA won't be seeded (again) as the league so often beats itself up in the regular season.

Food for thought, if JMU wins out they finish 9-2, same possible record as UNH and ODU. However, UNH will have a loss to ODU, and JMU would boast a victory over ODU. A 9-2 record would also give JMU the CAA's AQ over UNH in a tiebreaker. In that scenario I think a strong league boasting 3 teams with 9-2 records gets at least one seed, especially if that team has a big stadium and averages over 23k a game.

Agreed. And if you look at the remaining 1 and 2 loss teams, they all have at least one very loseable game and a few have likely loseables left with FBS teams. There's a good chance we'll see three 9-2 seeds and maybe more.

[Walkon79]

If MSU is 10-1 and EWU is 9-2, but neither get the AQ because NAU wins out, I think it's possible that both get a seed over NAU.