Playoff Prediction - The way you like - 3 weeks to Go

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy and SWAC does not participate Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated. D11 wins are excluded

1. Bethune Cookman (MEAC)

Outlook: AQ A one bid conference and I think Bethune is that team

2. Lehigh (8-0, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Holy Cross, Colgate, at Layfayette

Outlook: The at large field is hoping Lehigh doesn’t trip up

3. Stoney Brook (8-1, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: VMI, at Liberty

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a win next week should seal things up

4. Albany (7-1, 5-0 NEC)
The Games: Wagner, at Dusquene, CC St

Outlook: One bid conference they need to keep winning and they are in

5. Old Dominion (7-1, 4-1 CAA not eligible for Conf title)
The Games: at Georgia St, W&M, at JMU

Outlook: Can’t win the AB but are fighting for a top seed

6. North Dakota State (7-1, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: at MO St, S.Dak St, at Ill St

Outlook: The Bison have much work to do before they grab the AB – the at larges need them to win out

7. Ga Southern (7-1, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: ASU, Howard, at Georgia

Outlook: What a finish at UTC – feel like they beat ASU next week and wrap things up for the AB

9. Montana State (6-1, 4-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Sac State, Port St, at Montana

Outlook: Needs to keep winning but see them in the post season and the at large field is pulling for them next week

10. Wofford (6-1, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: at Samford, UTC, at S. Carolina

Outlook: Needs to win 1 more to make the field – a tough stretch left

11. Tennessee State (8-1, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: at Murray St, at UT Martin

Outlook: Controls own destiny and the at larges would prefer they win out

12. Northern Arizona (6-1, 5-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho St, S. Utah, Cal Poly

Outlook: Avoided disaster and in control of the Big Sky

13. Eastern Washington (6-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Cal Poly, UC Davis, at Port St

Outlook: Schedule not as tough, but the game next week is big

14. Cal Poly (7-1, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at EWU, Idaho St, at N.Arizona

Outlook: Things could get interesting for them, two more losses could keep them at home

15. New Hampshire (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: W&M, Towson

Outlook: May have the easiest road left in the CAA – finally a CAA autobid winner?

16. Indiana State (6-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: Ill St, at Youngstown St

Outlook: Looking very strong still needs two more wins to capture the AB


17. Sam Houston State (5-2, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: SE Louis, at N’wstern St, at Texas A&M

Outlook: No losses until A&M and they should be in, the at large field hoping for another loss

18. Central Arkansas (6-2, 5-1 Southland)
The Games: N’wstern St, E Ilinois

Outlook: They look to be in good shape but any loss puts things in doubt

19. South Dakota State (6-2, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: at S. Ill, at NDSU, S. Dakota

Outlook: Still a tough schedule ahead

20. Villanova (6-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: JMU, at Delaware

Outlook: Elimination game next week

21. Illinois State (7-2, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: at Ind St, NDSU

Outlook: A really difficult schedule, win 2 and you are in

22. Sacramento State (6-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana St, at UC Davis

Outlook: Can’t lose again alive and well needs another big win

23. Richmond (5-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: R. Island, Delaware, at W&M

Outlook: They can’t afford to lose again and I believe they won’t

24. Appalachian State (6-3, 4-2 Southern)
The Games: at GSU, Furman

Outlook: Needs to win out – 8 wins puts them in the playoffs – they will face #1 GSU next week

25. James Madison (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Maine, at Villanova, ODU

Outlook: Again a log jam at the top and 3 tough games upcoming – not a great game this week


26. UT Martin (6-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: Jax St, at Tenn Tech, Tenn St

Outlook: Avoid any more losses and they could win the AB

27. McNeese State (4-4, 2-2 Southland)
The Games: at Nichols, at Texas SA, Lamar

Outlook: NOT done yet

28. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: at SEMO St, Murray St.

Outlook: Likely eliminated from the post season

29. Citadel (4-4, 3-3 Southern)
The Games: Elon, at VMI, at Furman

Outlook: A tough schedule ahead but had two quality wins – ASU hoping they win again

30. Delaware (5-3, 2-3 CAA)
The Games: Towson, at Richmond, Villanova

Outlook: Difficult schedule upcoming out with another loss

31. Colgate/Lafayette
The Games:

Outlook: Either could still win the Autobid

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: N. Arizona Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune OVC: Tenn State
Big South: Stony Brook NEC: Albany

At-large: Wofford, Indiana State, Richmond, Montana St, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, Cal Poly, E. Washington, Villanova

Seeds: GSU, N Arizona, NDSU, ODU, Lehigh
Last In: C Arkansas, Illinois State, Richmond
Last Out: South Dak State, ASU, EKU


Bracket I:
Cal Poly vs Illinois State winner at No. 1 NDSU
Indiana State @ Montana State

Wofford vs Richmond winner at No. 4 ODU
N Hampshire @ No. 5 Lehigh

Bracket II:
C. Arkansas vs Bethune winner at No. 3 GSU
Stoney Brook @ Tenn State

Albany vs Villanova winner at No. 2 N. Arizona
E Washington @ Sam Houston State

[Samalum'10]

UCA will get the auto bid for the SLC
SHSU gets in with an at large

[melloware13]

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: N. Arizona Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune OVC: Tenn State
Big South: Stony Brook NEC: Albany

At-large: Wofford, Indiana State, N. Hamp, Montana St, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, Cal Poly, E. Washington, Villanova

You have UNH in twice, with Wofford not playing anyone in the first round, I'd think between SDSU, Richmond, or JMU for that spot

[worrierking]

27. McNeese State (4-4, 2-2 Southland)
The Games: at Nichols, at Texas SA, Lamar

Outlook: NOT done yet


Good work. Very helpful. Just for accuracy, McNeese State is 5-3, 2-3 in SLC. Yes, we are not done yet, but we will need some help, in addition to winning out.

[Go Apps]

You have UNH in twice, with Wofford not playing anyone in the first round, I'd think between SDSU, Richmond, or JMU for that spot

Fixed THanks

[Nickels]

Good work. Very helpful. Just for accuracy, McNeese State is 5-3, 2-3 in SLC. Yes, we are not done yet, but we will need some help, in addition to winning out.

McNeese is done. They can't get the auto-bid (not possible) and their resume doesn't justify an at large bid, no matter what happens in their next 3 games.

[Go Apps]

Good work. Very helpful. Just for accuracy, McNeese State is 5-3, 2-3 in SLC. Yes, we are not done yet, but we will need some help, in addition to winning out.

Sorry should be 4-3 took out D2 wins

[Samalum'10]

McNeese is done. They can't get the auto-bid (not possible) and their resume doesn't justify an at large bid, no matter what happens in their next 3 games.

If McNeese St. wins out, they would have two FBS wins and meet the 7 D-1 win minimum. I'm not going to say they are completely out, but there might be a SLIM chance they could sneak in. Alot of craziness would have to happen though for them to have a shot.

[Go Apps]

Have cleaned things up a bit

[theasushow]

good work man, I know that takes a lot of time and effort...something I dont have.

[WileECoyote06]

Eastern Illinois is still alive for the OVC autobid; and if they beat UCA I'd be willing to bet they will receive at least an at-large.

[Go Apps]

good work man, I know that takes a lot of time and effort...something I dont have.

Yes I wish I had ASU winning out and in my playoff scenario but not at the moment

[Go Apps]

Eastern Illinois is still alive for the OVC autobid; and if they beat UCA I'd be willing to bet they will receive at least an at-large.

Yes you are right I can add them next week Good Luck

[McNeese75]

xcoffeex
McNeese is done. They can't get the auto-bid (not possible) and their resume doesn't justify an at large bid, no matter what happens in their next 3 games.

Well I guess that is it. The all knowing football guru Nickels said it so it must be so. xcoffeex. You better hope others don't think like you do or the Kats will be on the road with no quality wins this year and two serious *** beatings by fbs schools. Johnny QB is going to light y'all up.

[Engineer86]

Eastern Illinois is still alive for the OVC autobid; and if they beat UCA I'd be willing to bet they will receive at least an at-large.

I agree, I am surprised how little respect EIU got in the poll

[Houndawg]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy and SWAC does not participate Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated. D11 wins are excluded

1. Bethune Cookman (MEAC)

Outlook: AQ A one bid conference and one of the four above – I think Bethune

2. Lehigh (8-0, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Holy Cross, Colgate, at Layfayette

Outlook: The at large field is hoping Lehigh doesn’t trip up

3. Stoney Brook (8-1, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: VMI, at Liberty

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a win next week should seal things up

4. Albany (7-1, 5-0 NEC)
The Games: Wagner, Dusquene, at CC St

Outlook: One bid conference they need to keep winning and they are in

5. Old Dominion (7-1, 4-1 CAA not eligible for Conf title)
The Games: at Georgia St, W&M, at JMU

Outlook: Can’t win the AB but are fighting for a top seed

6. North Dakota State (7-1, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: at MO St, S.Dak St, at Ill St

Outlook: The Bison have much work to do before they grab the AB – the at larges need them to win out

7. Ga Southern (7-1, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: ASU, Howard, at Georgia

Outlook: What a finish at UTC – feel like they beat ASU next week and wrap things up for the AB

9. Montana State (6-1, 4-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Sac State, Port St, at Montana

Outlook: Needs to keep winning but see them in the post season and the at large field is pulling for them next week

10. Wofford (6-1, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: at Samford, UTC, at S. Carolina

Outlook: Needs to win 1 more to make the field – a tough stretch left

11. Tennessee State (8-1, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: at Murray St, at UT Martin

Outlook: Controls own destiny and the at larges would prefer they win out

12. Northern Arizona (6-1, 5-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Idaho St, S. Utah, Cal Poly

Outlook: Avoided disaster and in control of the Big Sky

13. Eastern Washington (6-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Cal Poly, UC Davis, at Port St

Outlook: Schedule not as tough, but the game next week is big

14. Cal Poly (7-1, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at EWU, Idaho St, at N.Arizona

Outlook: Things could get interesting for them, two more losses could keep them at home

15. New Hampshire (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: W&M, Towson

Outlook: May have the easiest road left in the CAA – finally a CAA autobid winner?

16. Indiana State (6-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: Ill St, at Youngstown St

Outlook: Looking very strong still needs two more wins to capture the AB


17. Sam Houston State (5-2, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: SE Louis, at N’wstern St, at Texas A&M

Outlook: No losses until A&M and they should be in, the at large field hoping for another loss

18. Central Arkansas (6-2, 5-1 Southland)
The Games: N’wstern St, E Ilinois

Outlook: They look to be in good shape but any loss puts things in doubt

19. South Dakota State (6-2, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: at S. Ill, at NDSU, S. Dakota

Outlook: Still a tough schedule ahead

20. Villanova (6-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: JMU, at Delaware

Outlook: Elimination game next week

21. Illinois State (7-2, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: at Ind St, NDSU

Outlook: A really difficult schedule, win 2 and you are in

22. Sacramento State (6-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana St, at UC Davis

Outlook: Can’t lose again alive and well needs another big win

23. Richmond (5-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: R. Island, Delaware, at W&M

Outlook: They can’t afford to lose again and I believe they won’t

24. Appalachian State (6-3, 4-2 Southern)
The Games: at GSU, Furman

Outlook: Needs to win out – 8 wins puts them in the playoffs – they will face #1 GSU next week

25. James Madison (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Maine, at Villanova, ODU

Outlook: Again a log jam at the top and 3 tough games upcoming – not a great game this week


26. UT Martin (6-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: Jax St, at Tenn Tech, Tenn St

Outlook: Avoid any more losses and they could win the AB

27. McNeese State (4-4, 2-2 Southland)
The Games: at Nichols, at Texas SA, Lamar

Outlook: NOT done yet

28. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: at SEMO St, Murray St.

Outlook: Likely eliminated from the post season

29. Citadel (4-4, 3-3 Southern)
The Games: Elon, at VMI, at Furman

Outlook: A tough schedule ahead but had two quality wins – ASU hoping they win again

30. Delaware (5-3, 2-3 CAA)
The Games: Towson, at Richmond, Villanova

Outlook: Difficult schedule upcoming out with another loss

31. Colgate/Georgetown
The Games:

Outlook: Either could still win the Autobid

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: N Hampshire
Big Sky: N. Arizona Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune OVC: Tenn State
Big South: Stony Brook NEC: Albany

At-large: Wofford, Indiana State, Richmond, Montana St, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, Cal Poly, E. Washington, Villanova

Seeds: GSU, N Arizona, NDSU, ODU, Lehigh
Last In: C Arkansas, Illinois State, Richmond
Last Out: South Dak State, ASU, EKU


Bracket I:
Cal Poly vs Illinois State winner at No. 1 NDSU
Indiana State @ Montana State

Wofford vs Richmond winner at No. 4 ODU
N Hampshire @ No. 5 Lehigh

Bracket II:
C. Arkansas vs Bethune winner at No. 3 GSU
Stoney Brook @ Tenn State

Albany vs Villanova winner at No. 2 N. Arizona
E Washington @ Sam Houston State

Nice work xthumbsupx

I think that a 7-4 SIU should get a hard look for SOS reasons, right now they're 3-2 against Top 25 FCS teams, 4-2 if they beat the Jacks.

[RichH2]

Great job. Thanks. Nice to put all the various leagues into one context.

[WWII]

FYI - Albany is at Duqesne and Home for Central CT.

[BEAR]

Eastern Illinois is still alive for the OVC autobid; and if they beat UCA I'd be willing to bet they will receive at least an at-large.

Does anybody know if E. Illinois has a fan messageboard? Thanks!

[TheValleyRaider]

31. Colgate/Georgetown
The Games:

Outlook: Either could still win the Autobid

I think you mean Lafayette, not Georgetown. The Hoyas already have 2 League losses (to Lehigh and Colgate), while the Pards only have 1 and would win the title by winning out

[MTfan4life]

Who gets the last spot?
Cal Poly 8-3 beat Wyoming
Sacramento State 7-4 beat Colorado and Cal Poly
Illinois State 7-4 can never get over that hump, beat Eastern Michigan
Tennessee State 8-3 beat EKU
Appalachian State 7-4 tradition
Citadel 7-4 beat said traditionally good team and also beat Georgia Southern
McNeese State win over .500 FBS MTSU and FBS transitional UTSA
Eastern Kentucky 8-3 won a national title 30 years ago
Eastern Illinois beat EKU

[MTfan4life]

1. North Dakota State
@Sam Houston State
Cal Poly


@Central Arkansas
Eastern Washington


5. Montana State
Lehigh

@South Dakota State
Villanova

4. Northern Arizona


3. Old Dominion
@Bethune Cookman
Tennessee Martin


@Stony Brook
New Hampshire


@Indiana State
Wofford

@Richmond
Albany

2. Georgia Southern

Last teams in: Cal Poly, South Dakota State, Villanova, Richmond
Last teams out: McNeese State, The Citadel, Eastern Kentucky, Appalachian State
Next four out: Sacramento State, Eastern Illinois, Tennessee State, Illinois State

The bubble is a mess right now.

[Go Apps]

I think you mean Lafayette, not Georgetown. The Hoyas already have 2 League losses (to Lehigh and Colgate), while the Pards only have 1 and would win the title by winning out

Fixed

[WrenFGun]

1. North Dakota State
@Sam Houston State
Cal Poly


@Central Arkansas
Eastern Washington


5. Montana State
Lehigh

@South Dakota State
Villanova

4. Northern Arizona


3. Old Dominion
@Bethune Cookman
Tennessee Martin


@Stony Brook
New Hampshire


@Indiana State
Wofford

@Richmond
Albany

2. Georgia Southern

Last teams in: Cal Poly, South Dakota State, Villanova, Richmond
Last teams out: McNeese State, The Citadel, Eastern Kentucky, Appalachian State
Next four out: Sacramento State, Eastern Illinois, Tennessee State, Illinois State

The bubble is a mess right now.

I think your CAA projections are extremely accurate right now, though I feel more confident about Richmond getting to 8-3 than Villanova (Villanova has to go to Delaware to end the season, and they're probably an underdog there; they play JMU on 11/10 in what is probably an elimination game for both teams). I think it's possible that neither Villanova nor JMU will get in due to four losses, but I think 'Nova is more likely to get in at this time. Richmond seems the easiest to project of the three.

The one thing I'll say is that I think South Dakota State is LESS likely to make it in than Illinois State, but I could still see both teams out. SD. State is a dog in their next two, while ISU-R is also a dog, but ISU-R only needs to win 50% v. 67% to make it in. I'd probably swap them.

I think the OVC may pound itself to oblivion, but I like TSU out of there for now. If Sac. State wins out it is going to throw this bracket into shambles, IMO.

[Skyhawk71]

The OVC oblivion of which you speak is very realistic; what a season of futility this could turn into:
TSU (4-1)- @ MSU (2-3), BYE, @ UTM (4-1)- win & loss= 5-2
UTM (4-1)- JSU (4-2), @ TTU (0-5); TSU (4-1)- goes 2-1, loss to JSU- 6-2
EIU (4-2)- @ TTU (0-5); SEMO(2-3); @UCA- barring a major upset will finish 5-2
EKU (4-2)- @ SEMO (2-3); MSU (2-3)- bye in there somewhere, win out 6-2
JSU (4-2)- @ UTM (4-1); APSU (0-6); @ Florida- beat UTM & Peay- 6-2
* If this happens good luck to the OVC- cause I don't know how they figure this one out- UTM & TSU still control their own fates- so we shall see xeekx

[Go Apps]

I think your CAA projections are extremely accurate right now, though I feel more confident about Richmond getting to 8-3 than Villanova (Villanova has to go to Delaware to end the season, and they're probably an underdog there; they play JMU on 11/10 in what is probably an elimination game for both teams). I think it's possible that neither Villanova nor JMU will get in due to four losses, but I think 'Nova is more likely to get in at this time. Richmond seems the easiest to project of the three.

The one thing I'll say is that I think South Dakota State is LESS likely to make it in than Illinois State, but I could still see both teams out. SD. State is a dog in their next two, while ISU-R is also a dog, but ISU-R only needs to win 50% v. 67% to make it in. I'd probably swap them.

I think the OVC may pound itself to oblivion, but I like TSU out of there for now. If Sac. State wins out it is going to throw this bracket into shambles, IMO.

The CAA is a bit of mystery right now because the GPI keeps tumbling now behind the Southland and OVC along with 3 others - may be a two bid conference as odd as it may sound

[bostonspider]

the GPI of the CAA will not matter if the top teams take care of business. If you have a 9-2 JMU, and 9-2 ODU and a 9-2 UNH combined with a 8-3 Richmond, then the CAA gets 4 bids. If teams stumble than that is their fault, not the strength of the conference.

[Go Apps]

the GPI of the CAA will not matter if the top teams take care of business. If you have a 9-2 JMU, and 9-2 ODU and a 9-2 UNH combined with a 8-3 Richmond, then the CAA gets 4 bids. If teams stumble than that is their fault, not the strength of the conference.

Not this year I think a 3 loss team gets WOFFED

[ITmonarch10]

The CAA is a bit of mystery right now because the GPI keeps tumbling now behind the Southland and OVC along with 3 others - may be a two bid conference as odd as it may sound
I doubt the CAA would become a 2 bid conference. However, we are increasing looking like a 3 bid conference with Georgia State and Rhode Island are hurting us badly in GPI. Just playing those teams and not blowing them out by 30+ points seems to be tanking the entire conference GPI. OMG NEC please take Rhode Island please.......

[Go Apps]

I doubt the CAA would become a 2 bid conference. However, we are increasing looking like a 3 bid conference with Georgia State and Rhode Island are hurting us badly in GPI. Just playing those teams and not blowing them out by 30+ points seems to be tanking the entire conference GPI. OMG NEC please take Rhode Island please.......

Yes I think you could definitely improve your image with those two gone

[Dane96]

The CAA is a bit of mystery right now because the GPI keeps tumbling now behind the Southland and OVC along with 3 others - may be a two bid conference as odd as it may sound

Since the GPI is not used to pick teams for the playoffs...it doesn't matter how far they tumble in the GPI.

Cue.....Ralph and friends.

[Go Apps]

Since the GPI is not used to pick teams for the playoffs...it doesn't matter how far they tumble in the GPI.

Cue.....Ralph and friends.

Who says it's not used the conferences at the top have traditionally yeilded a lot of teams the CAA has ruled the GPI and got as many as 5 teams in - I think they do look at it for sure

[MTfan4life]

Who says it's not used the conferences at the top have traditionally yeilded a lot of teams the CAA has ruled the GPI and got as many as 5 teams in - I think they do look at it for sure

The MVFC was at the top or top two GPI last season and they got two in. ISU-r was miles ahead of EKU in the computers, but that didn't matter. The CAA has gotten so many teams in because of their tradition to win games in the playoffs, not because of some arbitrary averaged computer rating.

[Twentysix]

But EKU paid an obscene amount of dollars for a play in game. Who knows how secret their bid was. It came out the OVC was backing their bids.

[URMite]

Since the GPI is not used to pick teams for the playoffs...it doesn't matter how far they tumble in the GPI.

Cue.....Ralph and friends.

I'm sure the GPI isn't used (especially the conference GPI xrolleyesx). But some of the same facts that lead to a low conference GPI are probably looked at by the committee. It isn't that a team with a high conference GPI causes them to get in. It is that the same things that cause them to get in often (but not always) cause a high GPI. (chicken & egg)

If Richmond goes 8-3, they might get left out. But it wouldn't be because of the low conference GPI. It would be that 5 of our 8 wins would be against - URI (0-9 if we win), GA St (1-6 [URI], Gardner-Webb(1-6 [VMI]), VMI(1-6) & W&M(2-7 [GA ST]if we win, with games @UNH&@ODU) - not exactly a murderers row (possibly 5-50 with 3 wins against each other). The Delaware win would be over at best a 6-4 team. Both JMU & Nova may be good wins and ODU & UNH aren't bad losses but...

[stevdock]

I'm sure the GPI isn't used (especially the conference GPI xrolleyesx). But some of the same facts that lead to a low conference GPI are probably looked at by the committee. It isn't that a team with a high conference GPI causes them to get in. It is that the same things that cause them to get in often (but not always) cause a high GPI. (chicken & egg)

If Richmond goes 8-3, they might get left out. But it wouldn't be because of the low conference GPI. It would be that 4 of our 8 wins would be against - URI, GA St, Gardner-Webb, & VMI - not exactly a murderers row.

Everyone has games like that though. NDSU's got wins against USD 1 win, Prairie View 3 wins(although 2 wins in a row), Robert Morris 2 wins, CSU 1 win, and UNI 2 wins. Like you said though they will look at the full body of work and decide from there. 7 wins is not a sure thing, and neither is 8 this year. There will be at least a few 8+ win teams sent home this year.

[bisonnation]

Just win baby! If both teams win out, regardless of the scores, they should be ranked #1 and #2 in opposite brackets. Makes no difference who is 1 as it could be settled on a neutral site. It would be a fun playoff (championship) match up if we're fortunate enough to go that deep.

[Go Apps]

The bottom line is there are so many more teams with 8 wins plus this year due to the larger conferences not playing a complete schedule like the CAA and Big Sky - this will leave so many thinking they should have been in the playoffs - as an ASU fan I do not want to be one of those people you are right we just need 2 more wins - but I am being realistic and hoping for 1 win a Citadel loss and for history to be on the mountaineers side:)

[URMite]

The bottom line is there are so many more teams with 8 wins plus this year due to the larger conferences not playing a complete schedule like the CAA and Big Sky - this will leave so many thinking they should have been in the playoffs - as an ASU fan I do not want to be one of those people you are right we just need 2 more wins - but I am being realistic and hoping for 1 win a Citadel loss and for history to be on the mountaineers side:)

Don't forget the MFVC, don't they miss one team this year? But really isn't it about how many good teams you do play not how many good teams you don't play? I bet if every team played the top 25 teams no one would have only 3 losses...(cue Lakes)

[NDB]

Just win baby! If both teams win out, regardless of the scores, they should be ranked #1 and #2 in opposite brackets. Makes no difference who is 1 as it could be settled on a neutral site. It would be a fun playoff (championship) match up if we're fortunate enough to go that deep.

Frisco will not be a neutral site if NDSU makes it back.

[Twentysix]

Yes, NDSU did not play the FCS juggernaught Western Illinois this year.

[URMite]

Yes, NDSU did not play the FCS juggernaught Western Illinois this year.

So according to Go Apps logic, that is why you will make the playoffs!xlolx

[dgtw]

The OVC oblivion of which you speak is very realistic; what a season of futility this could turn into:
TSU (4-1)- @ MSU (2-3), BYE, @ UTM (4-1)- win & loss= 5-2
UTM (4-1)- JSU (4-2), @ TTU (0-5); TSU (4-1)- goes 2-1, loss to JSU- 6-2
EIU (4-2)- @ TTU (0-5); SEMO(2-3); @UCA- barring a major upset will finish 5-2
EKU (4-2)- @ SEMO (2-3); MSU (2-3)- bye in there somewhere, win out 6-2
JSU (4-2)- @ UTM (4-1); APSU (0-6); @ Florida- beat UTM & Peay- 6-2
* If this happens good luck to the OVC- cause I don't know how they figure this one out- UTM & TSU still control their own fates- so we shall see xeekx

So all that has to happen is for Martin to lose to Jax State and then beat Tennessee State (both at home) and we have a major fustercluck on our hands. The tiebreaker system was posted in the OVC poll thread. But the above scenario has everyone with two losses against each other and all haven beaten the four bottom feeders. Would they just draw a name out of a hat for the autobid?

[MTfan4life]

So all that has to happen is for Martin to lose to Jax State and then beat Tennessee State (both at home) and we have a major fustercluck on our hands. The tiebreaker system was posted in the OVC poll thread. But the above scenario has everyone with two losses against each other and all haven beaten the four bottom feeders. Would they just draw a name out of a hat for the autobid?

Murray State hasn't exactly shown themselves as a bottom feeder in their three losses. I think they have a very good chance at beating TSU this weekend and maybe even EKU next weekend.

[Skyhawk71]

Murray is very similar to UTM last season, losing all of the close ones, they are more than capable of beating TSU, and TTU is more than capable of winning a game, now that some of their players are returning from injury.......the previous post was a worst case scenario for the conference...........I by no means wish this on anyone

[dgtw]

I'm sorry, I probably should have chosen my words better. I watched the game last week against JSU and they have a pretty good team.

[katstrapper]

Here is a question I have.. As it stands right now,Kats should enter A&M game no worse than #4 in FCS and could be higher if someone stumbles ahead of them. Kats have any chance at a seed? I know everyone is assuming the loss in College Station and I think the chances are slim, but what if Kats keep in close? Reason I ask is Sam Houston has been in top10 all season.

Selection committee has done crazier things before.....

[Rekdiver]

APP gets in at 7-4. With losses to 2 top 10 teams and the team tha beat GS.

[Engineer86]

APP gets in at 7-4. With losses to 2 top 10 teams and the team tha beat GS.

If you beat GSU, you would lose to Furman to be 7-4 with one win over a top ten team (GSU) and losses to Wofford, Citadel, Furman and ECU. One loss to top 10 teams. Citadel got a big boost after beating you, but they had just gotten into the top 25 when they beat GSU. You may get in, but it is not a lock.

[WrenFGun]

APP gets in at 7-4. With losses to 2 top 10 teams and the team tha beat GS.

App will need a LOT of help at 7-4, IMO. CAA will need to only have 2-3 teams with 8 DI wins, and the MVFC will need to have only 2 or so, as well. There's nothing about their resume that would stick them at the top of the heap at 7-4, either. I'd take Villanova (win over ODU) or Sacramento State (FBS win) over them.