Playoffs 'Til I Die: Chuck's Playoff Projections, Week 9

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/454-playoffs-til-i-die-picking-the-fcs-playoff-bracket-week-9


The tagline that the soccer team FC Dallas uses to promote their Major League Soccer squad is "Dallas 'Til I Die".

And it's FC Dallas Stadium in Frisco, Texas which is the ultimate goal of nearly all of the Division I football programs that comprise Football Championship Subdivision, or FCS.

For those who are honored to eat, live, and breathe an FCS program, the tagline of the official NCAA postseason really ought to be "Playoffs 'Til I Die".

Those that get a taste of the highest level of postseason play live it, and love it, and would never want to be stuck with bowls and plus-one unsanctioned championships.

And with four weekends to go, it's time to start filling out our brackets here at the College Sports Journal.

Time to start getting excited about the playoffs. xthumbsupx

[NHwildEcat]

Best prediction I have seen thus far...

[ITmonarch10]

Its a pretty good prediction. NAU couldn't miss the playoffs even if they wanted to. UNH lucked out and got all the cupcakes in the CAA giving them an easy road to the CAA title. The Socon maybe the second toughest conference ,but may cannibalize itself out of its 3rd bid.

Sam Houston may not go to the playoffs because of this line from the rulebook.

"Lifted right from the Southland rulebook, "If a tie remains after the above procedures are attempted, the NCAA Championship-eligible member that has been absent from the Division I Championship for the longest period of time shall be designated as the Conference’s representative in the Division I Championship."
So in the event of a 3 way tie between Central Arkansa . Sam Houston, and SFA. Sam Houston is the odd man out the playoffs. I guess Sam Houston's scheduling is starting to bite them in the ***.

To make this year even stranger, New Hampshire, NAU, Indiana State, and SFA might win conference titles and not be the best team in their conference nor seeded.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Yeah, that Southland tiebreaker really looms huge in the entire playoff field. I feel like 6-1, 1-1 is so likely between Central Arkansas, Sam Houston and SFA that I actually gave SFA the autobid in my projections based on that tiebreaker.

I think there are a lot of bubble teams hoping for an SFA loss somewhere down the line.

[darell1976]

Just a playoff question: First of all I don't think this could happen but say it did what would be the result.

If you had two teams as co-champs and one of them had only 6 DI wins could both teams (1 AQ and 1 non-AQ) get a playoff birth? I know 7 is the magic number but what if this scenario happened.

[Twentysix]

Just a playoff question: First of all I don't think this could happen but say it did what would be the result.

If you had two teams as co-champs and one of them had only 6 DI wins could both teams (1 AQ and 1 non-AQ) get a playoff birth? I know 7 is the magic number but what if this scenario happened.

Depends who truley won the conference, but yes.

The AQ goes to the conference winner.

[darell1976]

Depends who truley won the conference, but yes.

The AQ goes to the conference winner.

So a team could be co-champs of a conference and not be in the playoffs.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Just a playoff question: First of all I don't think this could happen but say it did what would be the result.

If you had two teams as co-champs and one of them had only 6 DI wins could both teams (1 AQ and 1 non-AQ) get a playoff birth? I know 7 is the magic number but what if this scenario happened.

It would depend on the tiebreakers. 7-4, 6 D-I victory teams and 6-5 teams have won their conference's autobid before. The Southland's is unique in that it depends on which team was not in the playoff the longest. And weirdly, SFA went 2 years ago, but SHSU and UCA went last year, so they would go. If Southeastern Louisiana was in the mix of 1-1 teams, they would go since they've never been, even if SFA were one of the teams. Totally wacky.

[Twentysix]

So a team could be co-champs of a conference and not be in the playoffs.

If they do not recieve the Autoqualifier then yes. Each conference has their own rules for tiebreaking an auto qualifier.

An example would be last years MVFC title. NDSU and UNI technically tied according to the stat books, however NDSU won the Auto Qualifier through a tie breaker.

UNI did make the playoffs in this example, but only ndsu was "guaranteed" a playoff spot.

[darell1976]

If they do not recieve the Autoqualifier then yes. Each conference has their own rules for tiebreaking an auto qualifier.

Just wondering because I suppose mathmatically UND still has a chance at the BSC title (along with most of the league), but UND can only get 6 DI wins so if they are co-champs with say Cal Poly then Cal Poly would win the AQ (head to head tiebreaker) and UND would be 2nd but with 6 DI wins chances of playoffs would be extremely low if any. Only in a perfect world would this scenario happen. (IMO it won't).

[Twentysix]

Just wondering because I suppose mathmatically UND still has a chance at the BSC title (along with most of the league), but UND can only get 6 DI wins so if they are co-champs with say Cal Poly then Cal Poly would win the AQ (head to head tiebreaker) and UND would be 2nd but with 6 DI wins chances of playoffs would be extremely low if any. Only in a perfect world would this scenario happen. (IMO it won't).

Without the AQ a 6 win team has more or less zero shot. This year, said team really has zero shot.

[darell1976]

Without the AQ a 6 win team has more or less zero shot. This year, said team really has zero shot.

Yep. The best UND could be is co-champs without a playoff (just like last year). At least we got our feet wet in a real conference schedule and can only better from here. Next year no DII/NAIA teams, no FBS teams, just 11 FCS teams with 7 of them visiting Grand Forks.

[ITmonarch10]

Will Sam Houston make the playoff field even with only 7 division 1 wins? They will have the poll ranking by the end of the season if they win out. ASU fans need Sam Houston wins the AQ or they won't be first in line at 7-4.

[Mattymc727]

Love the bracket, i dont think it will come to fruition, but if it did, It would be UNH's best chance to get past the QFinals.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Will Sam Houston make the playoff field even with only 7 division 1 wins? They will have the poll ranking by the end of the season if they win out. ASU fans need Sam Houston wins the AQ or they won't be first in line at 7-4.

That's one of the real interesting subplots brewing over the next four weeks. Here's another: SFA wins the autobid, SHSU is 8-3 and ranked higher than 8-3 UCA, but the Bears beat the Bearkats head-to-head. Who goes to the playoffs, and who stays home?

[KATS_21]

It would be nice to get 3 teams in the SLC into the playoffs, but it would take a lot of help to make it happen.

The Kats getting left out of the playoffs would be tough to take but when you play a schedule that provided you little room for error and you could not lose in conference, I guess thats what you get.

[Go Apps]

I think the two teams in trouble are S Dak State and a 4th team from the CAA in a down year..

[ITmonarch10]

That's one of the real interesting subplots brewing over the next four weeks. Here's another: SFA wins the autobid, SHSU is 8-3 and ranked higher than 8-3 UCA, but the Bears beat the Bearkats head-to-head. Who goes to the playoffs, and who stays home?

A scenario like this make me wonder wtf were the athletic directors of Towson, Sam Houston, and UNI were thinking when they made the absurd schedules. No room for error when you have 2 FBS teams and a D2 team on your schedule xcrazyx.

[Go Apps]

A scenario like this make me wonder wtf were the athletic directors of Towson, Sam Houston, and UNI were thinking when they made the absurd schedules. No room for error when you have 2 FBS teams and a D2 team on your schedule xcrazyx.

That is the chance you take - so ASU dropped ECU and added say NCA&T they would have likely finish 8-3 regardless of the GSU game - we too take a chance which is odd, not sure the $$ work out for us when you can drop in 30k in Boone over the check we get from ECU..

[Twentysix]

That is the chance you take - so ASU dropped ECU and added say NCA&T they would have likely finish 8-3 regardless of the GSU game - we too take a chance which is odd, not sure the $$ work out for us when you can drop in 30k in Boone over the check we get from ECU..

When 15,000 of those people get in for free it makes sense.

[Sammy94]

That's one of the real interesting subplots brewing over the next four weeks. Here's another: SFA wins the autobid, SHSU is 8-3 and ranked higher than 8-3 UCA, but the Bears beat the Bearkats head-to-head. Who goes to the playoffs, and who stays home?

This is a real possibility. Lots of football to be played though. UCA @ SELA and SFA @ McNeese this weekend are huge games in the SLC. The losers are probably out of the playoffs.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Liberty and Coastal play in Conway this year not Lynchburg

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Liberty and Coastal play in Conway this year not Lynchburg

Thanks for the heads-up, it's fixed. With all these scenarios to evaluate it's not easy fact-checking everything.

[ITmonarch10]

I think the two teams in trouble are S Dak State and a 4th team from the CAA in a down year..

The 4 teams from the CAA aren't really in any danger of missing the playoffs if they are 8-3(mostly 8-2 with a FBS loss) or better due to the polls. If the CAA doesn't get 4 teams in its because they choked against a team they shouldn't of lost against.

Richmond is 5-3 but has probably the most winnable last 3 games of the season in the CAA and will only rise in ranking. UNH just finished the difficult part of their schedule and should get the CAA crown at 9-2. IF ODU knocks Delaware out the playoff hunt this weekend, we will be a lock because we haven't faced the CAA cupcake known as GaState yet. JMU and Nova are going to be the ones battling out for the last spot due to their rather difficult remaining schedules and they have to play each other. I don't think their is a single 8-3 CAA team with a FBS loss missing the playoffs. I don't think their is a single CAA fan thinking they make the playoffs at 7-4. Honestly, I think only ASU knocking off GSU could knock Richmond out the playoffs at 8-3 ,but they will probably still get in regardless.

[URMite]

Just wondering because I suppose mathmatically UND still has a chance at the BSC title (along with most of the league), but UND can only get 6 DI wins so if they are co-champs with say Cal Poly then Cal Poly would win the AQ (head to head tiebreaker) and UND would be 2nd but with 6 DI wins chances of playoffs would be extremely low if any. Only in a perfect world would this scenario happen. (IMO it won't).

2001 Hofstra, Maine, William & Mary, and Villanova were all 7-2 in the A-10(now CAA).
Villanova did not get a playoff bid.

[URMite]

Will Sam Houston make the playoff field even with only 7 division 1 wins? They will have the poll ranking by the end of the season if they win out. ASU fans need Sam Houston wins the AQ or they won't be first in line at 7-4.

Sam Houston could be 7-3 in Div I with losses to Baylor & Texas A&M. I'm not sure NAU would be better if they were 7-3 in Div I with a win over UNLV, lost to Arizona St, and 2 FCS losses.

I still wonder if Towson would have the best 7-4 (instead of 7-3) record with losses to LSU & Kent St. Although ASU has a much better chance of getting to 7-4.

[URMite]

Thanks for the heads-up, it's fixed. With all these scenarios to evaluate it's not easy fact-checking everything.

BTW in the CAA section, you mention 6 teams with 1 or 2 Conference losses but don't mention Richmond (5-3, 3-2) in that section, so are you not counting ODU in the six because they can't get the AQ?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

BTW in the CAA section, you mention 6 teams with 1 or 2 Conference losses but don't mention Richmond (5-3, 3-2) in that section, so are you not counting ODU in the six because they can't get the AQ?

Correct. Old Dominion can't win the autobid. Richmond is included in that list of six teams.

[superman7515]

2001 Hofstra, Maine, William & Mary, and Villanova were all 7-2 in the A-10(now CAA).
Villanova did not get a playoff bid.

2010 MEAC Title was split between Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M, and South Carolina State. Florida A&M did not make the playoffs despite beating Bethune-Cookman 38-27 in the final weekend.

[URMite]

2010 MEAC Title was split between Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M, and South Carolina State. Florida A&M did not make the playoffs despite beating Bethune-Cookman 38-27 in the final weekend.

Yeah, but I think being 7-2 in the CAA and not making the playoffs is more impressive. :D

[Go Apps]

When 15,000 of those people get in for free it makes sense.

Have you been to an APP game I would guess about 6K students show up the rest do not and they actual charge the fee as part of their tuition

[NHwildEcat]

2001 Hofstra, Maine, William & Mary, and Villanova were all 7-2 in the A-10(now CAA).
Villanova did not get a playoff bid.

Yeah, but the field has expanded since then. I would doubt that scenario playing out in 2012.

[Twentysix]

Have you been to an APP game I would guess about 6K students show up the rest do not and they actual charge the fee as part of their tuition

Most schools charge an activity fee, it still doesn't count. Are you saying that App manipulates the student athletic fee based on the number of football homegames? That sounds absurd.

If your answer is no, then your comment has zero baring on my original post.

Why does app's attendance suck in the playoffs so badly if the free student's aren't inflating the numbers during the regular season?

Dec 4(students must buy tickets), App vs WIU ATTENDANCE: 13,322

http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=303382026

Dec 11(students must buy tickets), App vs Nova ATTENDANCE: 15,706

http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=303452026

Nov 13(students get in free), App vs Wofford ATTENDANCE: 28,622

http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=303172026

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Why is it every thread I start ends up being a debate on attendance? xlolx

[Twentysix]

Why is it every thread I start ends up being a debate on attendance? xlolx

Cause you start every thread?

[catbob]

I wana say EWU vs Poly is an OOC game.

[superman7515]

Yeah, but I think being 7-2 in the CAA and not making the playoffs is more impressive. :D

Yeah, simply adding to your answer that just because you're a co-champ of a conference doesn't mean you're getting in.