Seeding priority

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

This is what I see as the order in which the top teams will be seeded according to their final records. I am going out on a limb and saying GSU and Wofford won't beat Georgia and South Carolina. Let me know if I have left any teams out. I left out some possible records that I don't think are overly realistic (i.e. 3 loss NDSU team).

1. 10-1 NDSU
2. 11-0 Cal Poly
3. 10-1 EWU
4. 10-1 Northern Arizona
5. 10-1 ODU
6. 10-1 Cal Poly
7. 9-2 NDSU
8. 9-2 Georgia Southern
9. 9-2 South Dakota State
10. 9-2 EWU
11. 9-2 Cal Poly
12. 9-2 Wofford
13. 9-2 Northern Arizona
14. 9-2 New Hampshire
15. 9-2 Villanova

[LehighU11]

How about an 11-0 Lehigh if two of the MVC, CAA, and SoCon champs have 2 FCS losses each? PL is not that far behind Southland, and SHSU was seeded last year...

[WrenFGun]

How about an 11-0 Lehigh if two of the MVC, CAA, and SoCon champs have 2 FCS losses each? PL is not that far behind Southland, and SHSU was seeded last year...

I don't see how you can seed a team without a top 25 win.

IMO if Villanova gets to 9-2 they'll be seeded. That would be wins over ODU (10-1) and JMU, among others.

[gsu2583]

9-2 GaSouthern? Really? You have us losing to Chatty, but beating App and UGA? That's really unrealistic. If anything we will only lose to App...

xlolx

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

9-2 GaSouthern? Really? You have us losing to Chatty, but beating App and UGA? That's really unrealistic. If anything we will only lose to App...

xlolx


xconfusedx

[gsu2583]

That was just damn funny...

[The Eagle's Cliff]

Remove DII wins and FBS losses from the records because they don't count.

[UNH Fanboi]

I don't see how you can seed a team without a top 25 win.

IMO if Villanova gets to 9-2 they'll be seeded. That would be wins over ODU (10-1) and JMU, among others.

An 11-0 Lehigh will be seeded whether we like it or not.

[WileECoyote06]

An 11-0 Lehigh will be seeded whether we like it or not.

Pretty much. . .lol

[LehighU11]

I don't see how you can seed a team without a top 25 win.

IMO if Villanova gets to 9-2 they'll be seeded. That would be wins over ODU (10-1) and JMU, among others.

Fair argument. Looks like they will have a win over the Ivy Champ, Princeton, as their best OOC win. I still think 11-0 gets a chance at a seed over a 9-2 power conference team...a chance.

[LehighU11]

An 11-0 Lehigh will be seeded whether we like it or not.

And we all know that UNH fans will not like it :D. FWIW, I have the Wildcats ranked well above Lehigh.

[GannonFan]

Remove DII wins and FBS losses from the records because they don't count.


Since when do FBS losses don't count? They're still DI games. DII games don't count because they are DII - anything DI is fair game.

Oh, and an 11-0 Lehigh will get a seed - probably something like the 5th seed, 4th at best, but they'll get a seed. But it's not like playing at Goodman Stadium is going to be imposing for away teams. It's just a seed, that's all.

[MarkyMark]

This is what I see as the order in which the top teams will be seeded according to their final records. I am going out on a limb and saying GSU and Wofford won't beat Georgia and South Carolina. Let me know if I have left any teams out. I left out some possible records that I don't think are overly realistic (i.e. 3 loss NDSU team).

1. 10-1 NDSU
2. 11-0 Cal Poly
3. 10-1 EWU
4. 10-1 Northern Arizona
5. 10-1 ODU
6. 10-1 Cal Poly
7. 9-2 NDSU
8. 9-2 Georgia Southern
9. 9-2 South Dakota State
10. 9-2 EWU
11. 9-2 Cal Poly
12. 9-2 Wofford
13. 9-2 Northern Arizona
14. 9-2 New Hampshire
15. 9-2 Villanova

Cal Poly plays EWU and NAU in the last few weeks so your final W-L records for Big Sky teams can not work out. I think EWU will end up 10-1 and end up the #1 or #2 Seed. I think Cal Poly loses to EWU and ends up 10-1, NAU loses to Cal Poly and ends up 10-2.

Mt. State is missing too. Mt. State has the easiest FCS schedule of any top seeded team in the country and should end up with just 1 or 2 losses for the season.

[klak]

Cal Poly plays EWU and NAU in the last few weeks so your final W-L records for Big Sky teams can not work out. I think EWU will end up 10-1 and end up the #1 or #2 Seed. I think Cal Poly loses to EWU and ends up 10-1, NAU loses to Cal Poly and ends up 10-2.

All of those scenarios are listed.

[Professor Chaos]

Cal Poly plays EWU and NAU in the last few weeks so your final W-L records for Big Sky teams can not work out. I think EWU will end up 10-1 and end up the #1 or #2 Seed. I think Cal Poly loses to EWU and ends up 10-1, NAU loses to Cal Poly and ends up 10-2.
This list wasn't meant to predict losses down the road (except for the OP's mention of GSU and Wofford losing to UGA and South Carolina). For instance NDSU is in there twice in the case that they finish 10-1 or 9-2. SDSU also can't finish 9-2 if NDSU finishes 10-1. It's just meant as a prioritization of teams should they win out.

[eaglewraith]

That was just damn funny...

How?

9-2 means a loss to Citadel and UGA. Wtf are you talking about?

[WrenFGun]

And we all know that UNH fans will not like it :D. FWIW, I have the Wildcats ranked well above Lehigh.

Yeah. I think it's probable that an 11-0 Lehigh will get a seed; I just don't agree with it. That said, I think they could beat anyone in the playoffs, or lose to anyone. They're basically Harvard with playoff eligibility.

[Go Apps]

Yeah. I think it's probable that an 11-0 Lehigh will get a seed; I just don't agree with it. That said, I think they could beat anyone in the playoffs, or lose to anyone. They're basically Harvard with playoff eligibility.

A #5 seed is there best chance any loss puts them olaying in round 1

[LehighU11]

A #5 seed is there best chance any loss puts them olaying in round 1

You've got that right.

[gsu2583]

How?

9-2 means a loss to Citadel and UGA. Wtf are you talking about?

I was joking about beating UGA and losing to App.

[wapiti]

How about an 11-0 Lehigh if two of the MVC, CAA, and SoCon champs have 2 FCS losses each? PL is not that far behind Southland, and SHSU was seeded last year...

I do not think Lehigh should get a seed. Just because Lehigh is 11-0 does not equate to a seed.
If I remember right, there has been an undefeated fcs team that did not even get an invite to the playoffs. San Diego out the Pioneer league.

If Lehigh wants a seed and a chance to host, then seek an invite to a better league. If a team jumps to FBS from the Southern or CAA that may be the opportunity Lehigh could use.
If they do not want to change leagues then they had better up the ante on OOC games.

[LehighU11]

I do not think Lehigh should get a seed. Just because Lehigh is 11-0 does not equate to a seed.
If I remember right, there has been an undefeated fcs team that did not even get an invite to the playoffs. San Diego out the Pioneer league.

If Lehigh wants a seed and a chance to host, then seek an invite to a better league. If a team jumps to FBS from the Southern or CAA that may be the opportunity Lehigh could use.
If they do not want to change leagues then they had better up the ante on OOC games.

Lehigh won't be leaving the Patriot League any time soon. We prefer to compete against well-respected institutions where the student-athletes are there for a top-notch education. We could improve on the OOC scheduling in some years, though.

You can't compare Lehigh to San Diego. The Pioneer Football League is by far the weakest in FCS. The Patriot League is stronger than the Big South, MEAC, and NEC, which all have autobids.

[Twentysix]

This is what I see as the order in which the top teams will be seeded according to their final records. I am going out on a limb and saying GSU and Wofford won't beat Georgia and South Carolina. Let me know if I have left any teams out. I left out some possible records that I don't think are overly realistic (i.e. 3 loss NDSU team).

1. 10-1 NDSU
2. 11-0 Cal Poly
3. 10-1 EWU
4. 10-1 Northern Arizona
5. 10-1 ODU
6. 10-1 Cal Poly
7. 9-2 NDSU
8. 9-2 Georgia Southern
9. 9-2 South Dakota State
10. 9-2 EWU
11. 9-2 Cal Poly
12. 9-2 Wofford
13. 9-2 Northern Arizona
14. 9-2 New Hampshire
15. 9-2 Villanova

Looks solid to me, SDSU's only shot was at the 5 seed at 9-2, if those 2 losses were NDSU and KU. I would probably include a 9-2 Indiana State if you are going all the way to 15 spots, especially if NDSU captures the #1 seed. EDIT: NM forgot ISU-b has a DII win. Screw them. If you have less than 9 DI wins you don't deserve a seed in 99% of scenarios.

[tingly]

I'd put a 9-2 Cal Poly with losses at EWU and NAU much lower cuz they wouldn't have beaten an FCS team of playoff caliber. Fun facts, Cal Poly is 0-8 vs. NAU and 0-2 at EWU.

[Fear the Bird]

A 9-2 Nova and a 9-2 GSU would both get seeds, no matter how anything else plays out

[Lehigh'98]

I'd be hard pressed to give Lehigh a seed even over 9-2 Nova, but I would love to finally have one. I think last years team (had it escaped with a W vs UNH) with a seed could have gone deeper in playoffs. I'll reserve judgment on this years squad.

[Twentysix]

A 9-2 Nova and a 9-2 GSU would both get seeds, no matter how anything else plays out


Even over a 10-1 NDSU 10-1 EWU 10-1 SLO 10-1 ODU You now only have 1 9-2 slot.

[Fear the Bird]

Even over a 10-1 NDSU 10-1 EWU 10-1 SLO 10-1 ODU You now only have 1 9-2 slot.

I didn't say where they would be seeded, but in your scenario, I'll play along

#1 NDSU
#2 EWU
#3 Nova (Potentially CAA outright but in your scenario tied with ODU but h2h victory and wins over ODU, Towson, JMU, Delaware)
#4 GSU
#5 Lehigh/Cal Poly/ODU

In the scenario you have, Cal Poly would have lost to EWU in an essential "seed" playoff game...Cal Poly would probably be alive for a seed at 10-1 imo if the CAA champ or SoCon champ had 2 CONFERENCE losses

[Fear the Bird]

I didn't say where they would be seeded, but in your scenario, I'll play along

#1 NDSU
#2 EWU
#3 Nova (Potentially CAA outright but in your scenario tied with ODU but h2h victory and wins over ODU, Towson, JMU, Delaware)
#4 GSU
#5 Lehigh/Cal Poly/ODU

In the scenario you have, Cal Poly would have lost to EWU in an essential "seed" playoff game...Cal Poly would probably be alive for a seed at 10-1 imo if the CAA champ or SoCon champ had 2 CONFERENCE losses

I would probably flip GSU/Nova in that scenario but would largely depend on how Richmond and Citadel closed the season to compare their in conference losses, unless of course GSU plays well at Georgia (Nova was disappointing vs Temple) then it becomes a moot point and GSU is stronger

[Twentysix]

I would probably flip GSU/Nova in that scenario but would largely depend on how Richmond and Citadel closed the season to compare their in conference losses, unless of course GSU plays well at Georgia (Nova was disappointing vs Temple) then it becomes a moot point and GSU is stronger

I think SLO's FBS win will carry more weight than you are giving it, even if wyoming is down. But its a good arguement, otherwise. 10-1 plus an FBS win is a pretty good record. I would argue it is better than an 11-0 lehigh. ;) Sac St Wyoming NAU wins trump everything on Lehighs schedule imo. If UND wins their last 3 that will turn into a stronger win than anything on lehighs schedule also.

[Nova09]

A 9-2 Nova and a 9-2 GSU would both get seeds, no matter how anything else plays out

9-2 NDSU and 9-2 SDSU would both be seeded, 11-0 Cal Poly and 9-2 EWU would both be seeded, 9-2 GSU would be seeded before Nova.

Still have to consider that 11-0 Lehigh could be ahead of Nova, and I'm pretty sure 9-2 UNH would be ahead of 9-2 Nova.

Most likely we would be seeded at 9-2, but it is possible that it doesn't work out that way. I'm not expecting to be 9-2 anyway, with the schedule we have left.

[Fear the Bird]

9-2 NDSU and 9-2 SDSU would both be seeded, 11-0 Cal Poly and 9-2 EWU would both be seeded, 9-2 GSU would be seeded before Nova.

Still have to consider that 11-0 Lehigh could be ahead of Nova, and I'm pretty sure 9-2 UNH would be ahead of 9-2 Nova.

Most likely we would be seeded at 9-2, but it is possible that it doesn't work out that way. I'm not expecting to be 9-2 anyway, with the schedule we have left.

That is an interesting scenario where SDSU wins out as does Cal Poly, in that case I think it would be NDSU and EWU in conversation as a non-conference winner to be seeded, but I think the 9-2 (7-1) CAA champ would have priority there. I do agree a 9-2 GSU would probably be ahead of 9-2 Nova (see post above).

[UNH Fanboi]

A 9-2 Nova and a 9-2 GSU would both get seeds, no matter how anything else plays out

Why would Villanova so obviously get seeded ahead of a 9-2 UNH? UNH would have a 3pt loss on the road to ODU (who Nova beat) and Nova would have an 11 point loss at home to Richmond (who UNH beat). Nova's resume does not stand out vs. UNH's at all.

[Nova09]

Why would Villanova so obviously get seeded ahead of a 9-2 UNH? UNH would have a 3pt loss on the road to ODU (who Nova beat) and Nova would have an 11 point loss at home to Richmond (who UNH beat). Nova's resume does not stand out vs. UNH's at all.

Sort of agree and disagree. I think 9-2 UNH would get a seed from the committee over 9-2 Nova, but I also think Nova's resume would be (slightly) better. Mainly the JMU win we would have. But it's really splitting hairs, I might just be showing homerism.

[Fear the Bird]

Why would Villanova so obviously get seeded ahead of a 9-2 UNH? UNH would have a 3pt loss on the road to ODU (who Nova beat) and Nova would have an 11 point loss at home to Richmond (who UNH beat). Nova's resume does not stand out vs. UNH's at all.

No it is not so obvious - I meant more along the lines of a 9-2 (7-1) CAA champ would absolutely be seeded, I went by the initial list that had Nova at 9-2 is the 15th likeliest to get a seed. I agree that we could argue until we are blue in the face who would be more deserving between a 9-2 Nova and 9-2 UNH. But, ultimately, the fact that UNH had all 3 CAA bottom feeders on their schedule this year could be the deciding factor (No W&M for Nova)

[Fear the Bird]

Sort of agree and disagree. I think 9-2 UNH would get a seed from the committee over 9-2 Nova, but I also think Nova's resume would be (slightly) better. Mainly the JMU win we would have. But it's really splitting hairs, I might just be showing homerism.

Not to mention the ODU win - the pasting of ODU and limiting that high power offense is your calling card right now. UNH's best CAA win would be the winner of next week's UD/Towson game

[Nova09]

Not to mention the ODU win - the pasting of ODU and limiting that high power offense is your calling card right now. UNH's best CAA win would be the winner of next week's UD/Towson game

That's true, Fanboi only looked at margin of defeat. If you look at the completely obscure Margin Against Both Richmond and ODU, we've got them there, +13 to +1

[URMite]

I do not think Lehigh should get a seed. Just because Lehigh is 11-0 does not equate to a seed.
If I remember right, there has been an undefeated fcs team that did not even get an invite to the playoffs. San Diego out the Pioneer league.

If Lehigh wants a seed and a chance to host, then seek an invite to a better league. If a team jumps to FBS from the Southern or CAA that may be the opportunity Lehigh could use.
If they do not want to change leagues then they had better up the ante on OOC games.

Don't know whether they should but there is the precedent of Hampton 2005. MEAC/PL are AQ Pioneer is not.

[UNH Fanboi]

No it is not so obvious - I meant more along the lines of a 9-2 (7-1) CAA champ would absolutely be seeded, I went by the initial list that had Nova at 9-2 is the 15th likeliest to get a seed. I agree that we could argue until we are blue in the face who would be more deserving between a 9-2 Nova and 9-2 UNH. But, ultimately, the fact that UNH had all 3 CAA bottom feeders on their schedule this year could be the deciding factor (No W&M for Nova)

Understood. I think both UNH and Nova are going to need a lot of help getting a seed. Here's one not unlikely scenario in which things are very crowded at the top:

NDSU 10-1
EWU 10-1
Cal Poly 10-1
Lehigh 11-0
GSU 9-2
Wofford 9-2
ODU 10-1
Montana St. 10-1
Stony Brook 10-1

I'm not saying this exact scenario is necessarily likely to happen, but this is an example of how getting a seed will be tough for the CAA. I think the fact that there could be 2-3 CAA teams that are 7-1 in conference makes getting a seed even more difficult. If the Committee can't distinguish amongst the top CAA teams, the may just decide to give the seed to someone else, particularly since the CAA is perceived as weak this year.

[UNH Fanboi]

That's true, Fanboi only looked at margin of defeat. If you look at the completely obscure Margin Against Both Richmond and ODU, we've got them there, +13 to +1

I'm not saying there are no arguments in Nova's favor (their strength of schedule is better), I'm just saying that Nova is not a clear cut seed at 9-2.

[RabidRabbit]

That is an interesting scenario where SDSU wins out as does Cal Poly, in that case I think it would be NDSU and EWU in conversation as a non-conference winner to be seeded, but I think the 9-2 (7-1) CAA champ would have priority there. I do agree a 9-2 GSU would probably be ahead of 9-2 Nova (see post above).

If SDSU wins out, SDSU will be the MVFC AQ, since they beat In St. NDSU would be a game behind the 2 teams that would have beaten the Bison. However, Jacks winning in Fargo has only happened once, in 2008, in 40 + years.

[Fear the Bird]

If SDSU wins out, SDSU will be the MVFC AQ, since they beat In St. NDSU would be a game behind the 2 teams that would have beaten the Bison. However, Jacks winning in Fargo has only happened once, in 2008, in 40 + years.

Yes and I assumed with that MVFC AQ, they would already be seeded (as would Cal Poly), so I was speaking more to the last 3 seeds being between a 9-2 CAA champ, 9-2 So Con Champ, 9-2 MVFC runner-up and 9-2 Big Sky runner-up (and most likely 11-0 Lehigh)

[The Eagle's Cliff]

Since when do FBS losses don't count? They're still DI games. DII games don't count because they are DII - anything DI is fair game.

Oh, and an 11-0 Lehigh will get a seed - probably something like the 5th seed, 4th at best, but they'll get a seed. But it's not like playing at Goodman Stadium is going to be imposing for away teams. It's just a seed, that's all.

Late getting back to this thread, but the committee doesn't look at FBS losses or DII wins. I picked a few Big Sky and MVC teams to show their records, as seen by the committee, today:

EWU 6-0
Mont St 5-1
NAU 5-0
Cal Poly 7-0
Ind St. 5-1
NDSU 6-1
UNI 1-3
Ill St 6-2

[TheRevSFA]

Reason why Cal Poly is listed thrice and NAU twice?

[Fear the Bird]

Reason why Cal Poly is listed thrice and NAU twice?

Strength of schedule...a 9-2 Cal Poly team still has a strong shot at a seed if things go their way; an 8-3 NAU team has not shot