Playoff Picture - The Way You Like - 5 Weeks To Go

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy and SWAC does not participate Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated. D11 wins are excluded

1. Bethune Cookman/NC Central/Howard/Delaware State (MEAC)

Outlook: AQ A one bid conference and one of the four above – I think Bethune

2. Lehigh (8-0, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Holy Cross, Colgate, at Layfayette

Outlook: The at large field is hoping Lehigh doesn’t trip up

3. Cal Poly (7-0, 5-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at Sac St, at EWU, Idaho St, at N.Arizona

Outlook: In line for a title, but long way to go

4. Eastern Washington (6-1, 5-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at S Utah, Cal Poly, UC Davis, at Port St

Outlook: Schedule not as tough as others could snag the AB

5. Stoney Brook (7-1, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: Presb, VMI, at Liberty

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a loss to Liberty could hurt many others

6. Albany (6-1, 4-0 NEC)
The Games: at Sacred Heart, Wagner, Dusquene, at CC St

Outlook: One bid conference they need to keep winning

7. Old Dominion (6-1, 3-1 CAA not eligible for Conf title)
The Games: Delaware, at Georgia St, W&M, at JMU

Outlook: Can’t win the AB but schedule a bit better now

8. North Dakota State (6-1, 3-1 MVC)
The Games: S. Illinois, at MO St, S.Dak St, at Ill St

Outlook: The Bison have much work to do before they grab the AB

9. Ga Southern (6-1, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: at UTC, ASU, Howard, at Georgia

Outlook: GSU appears to be headed to the league title for now

10. Montana State (5-1, 3-1 Big Sky)
The Games: N. Dakota, at Sac State, Port St, at Montana

Outlook: Needs to keep winning but see them in the post season

11. Wofford (5-1, 4-1 Southern)
The Games: Citadel, at Samford, UTC, at S. Carolina

Outlook: Massive victory in Boone, needs to win 2 more to make the field

12. Tennessee State (7-1, 3-1 OVC)
The Games: Tenn Tech, at Murray St, at UT Martin

Outlook: Controls own destiny and the at larges would prefer they win out

13. Villanova (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson, JMU, at Delaware

Outlook: Stock is rising fast could be the favorite for conference title

14. New Hampshire (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at R. Island, W&M, Towson

Outlook: May have the easiest road left in the CAA – but how many bids do they get

15. Northern Arizona (5-1, 4-0 Big Sky)
The Games: at N. Colorado, at Idaho St, S. Utah, Cal Poly

Outlook: See maybe one more loss here which secures a bid

16. Indiana State (5-2, 4-1 MVC)
The Games: S. Dakota, Ill St, at Youngstown St

Outlook: Looking very strong still needs two more wins

17. Sam Houston State (4-2, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: at Lamar, SE Louis, at N’wstern St, at Texas A&M

Outlook: No losses until A&M and they should be in

18. Eastern Kentucky (6-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: E. Illinois, at SEMO St, Murray St.

Outlook: Win out and they are in the field

19. Central Arkansas (5-2, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: at SE Louis, N’wstern St, E Ilinois

Outlook: They look to be in good shape but any loss puts things in doubt

20. Appalachian State (5-3, 3-2 Southern)
The Games: at WCU, at GSU, Furman

Outlook: Needs to win out – 8 wins puts them in the playoffs – but I am starting to believe they could get in at 7-4 and would be the only team that would

21. Richmond (5-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: R. Island, Delaware, at W&M

Outlook: A big step this past week – they can’t afford to lose again

22. Sacramento State (5-3, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Cal Poly, Montana St, at UC Davis

Outlook: Can’t lose again

23. James Madison (5-2, 3-1 CAA)
The Games: Georgia St, at Maine, at Villanova, ODU

Outlook: Again a log jam at the top and 3 tough games upcoming

24. Illinois State (6-2, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: at N. Iowa, at Ind St, NDSU

Outlook: A really difficult schedule, win 2 and you are in

25. UT Martin (6-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: Jax St, at Tenn Tech, Tenn St

Outlook: Avoid any more losses and they could win the AB

26. South Dakota State (5-2, 3-1 MVC)
The Games: Youngstown St, at S. Ill, at NDSU, S. Dakota

Outlook: The wheels started coming off this past week

27. Youngstown State (4-3, 1-3 MVC)
The Games: at SDak St, S Dakota, at W. Ill, Ind St

Outlook: See them losing again – 4 losses to FCS teams puts them out

28. UTC (3-3, 3-1 Southern)
The Games: GSU, at WCU, at Wofford, Elon

Outlook: Dare I say control the Socon race

29. McNeese State (4-3, 1-3 Southland)
The Games: SFA, at Nichols, at Texas SA, Lamar

Outlook: Things are not looking good as they continue to lose

30. Delaware (5-2, 2-2 CAA)
The Games: at ODU, Towson, at Richmond, Villanova

Outlook: Difficult schedule upcoming

31. Citadel (4-3, 3-2 Southern)
The Games: at Wofford, Elon, at VMI, at Furman

Outlook: A tough schedule ahead but had two quality wins – 8 wins get them in.

32. Lafayette/Colgate
The Games:

Outlook: Either could still win the Autobid

32. SE Louisana/SFA
The Games:

Outlook: Both still alive for the autobid

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: Villanova
Big Sky: E. Washington Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Bethune OVC: Tenn State
Big South: Stony Brook NEC: Albany

At-large: Wofford, Indiana State, N. Hamp, Montana St, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, N. Arizona, EKU, Cal Poly

Seeds: GSU, E. Washington, NDSU, ODU, Cal Poly
Last In: N. Hampshire, C Arkansas, EKU
Last Out: ASU, Richmond, JMU


Bracket I:
Albany @ N. Hampshire winner at No. 1 NDSU
Illinois State @ N. Arizona

C. Arkansas @ Bethune winner at No. 4 GSU
Lehigh @ No. 5 ODU

Bracket II:
Indiana State @ Montana State winner at No. 3 Cal Poly
Wofford @ Tenn State

Stoney Brook @ EKU winner at No. 2 E. Washington
Villanova @ Sam Houston State

[NoDak 4 Ever]

I wouldn't be surprised if you end up swapping So Ill for Ill St. One keeps on winning and the other keeps on losing.

[Go Apps]

I wouldn't be surprised if you end up swapping So Ill for Ill St. One keeps on winning and the other keeps on losing.

Hey there is so much football to play so I am sure much of fhe above will change but much will not

[Go Apps]

There may be some mistakes but will clear them up in coming weeks

[TheRevSFA]

If SFA wins out, we are in. Also if Sam loses another game in conference (not going to happen though)...

[Fear the Bird]

Great stuff! Althought I think Sac St at 22 is a reach with the next 2 weeks looming - if they need to win out and have Cal Poly and Montana St as next 2 they are probably down closer to the bottom of this list based on probabilty

[BEAR]

If SFA wins out, they are in with the autobid and with their schedule, they should.

What it all comes down to is who will get in SAM HOUSTON or UCA?

(considerations of all 3 winning out of course) SELA is still undefeated though.

[Go Apps]

If SFA wins out, they are in with the autobid and with their schedule, they should.

What it all comes down to is who will get in SAM HOUSTON or UCA?

(considerations of all 3 winning out of course) SELA is still undefeated though.

The rest of the field really needs for one team to come out of the SL - any other loss by SHstate other than TAM will eliminate them

[BisonBacker]

I wouldn't be surprised if you end up swapping So Ill for Ill St. One keeps on winning and the other keeps on losing.

^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^

[msupokes1]

"29. McNeese State (6-4, 4-3 Southland)
The Games: SFA, at Nichols, at Texas SA, Lamar

Outlook: NOT done yet needs a win to stay in the hunt but 5 from the CAA is unlikely and they appear to be the odd man out"

McNeese is 4-2 not 6-4. Not sure what the CAA has to do with McNeese. We are in the Southland.

[Go Apps]

"29. McNeese State (6-4, 4-3 Southland)
The Games: SFA, at Nichols, at Texas SA, Lamar

Outlook: NOT done yet needs a win to stay in the hunt but 5 from the CAA is unlikely and they appear to be the odd man out"

McNeese is 4-2 not 6-4. Not sure what the CAA has to do with McNeese. We are in the Southland.

Updated Thx

[appfan2008]

this year will probably end ASU's streak of playoff appearances... not good.

[dystopiamembrane]

this year will probably end ASU's streak of playoff appearances... not good.
You beat Michigan, right?

[Go Apps]

You beat Michigan, right?

It's all about the FCS Title!!!

[Bear84]

If SFA wins out, they are in with the autobid and with their schedule, they should.

I thought that SFA gets the AQ if they win out and there is a three-way tie with UCA and Sam Houston. If UCA loses another conference game, and Sam Houston and SFA win out and end up tied, then would'nt Sam Houston get the autobid due the head-to-head victory over SFA?

[App1928]

I try not to be biased, but I have a hard time seeing a 7-4 App State team not making the playoffs....whether it is fair or not, App is the big name in FCS and along with Montana have to be most sought after due to their massive fan bases. App can still finish 8-3, but even at 7-4, they would have 7 D1 wins, 2 Ranked wins, and 3 losses to Ranked FCS teams and 1 to an FBS team. Thoughts?

[dungeonjoe]

I try not to be biased, but I have a hard time seeing a 7-4 App State team not making the playoffs....whether it is fair or not, App is the big name in FCS and along with Montana have to be most sought after due to their massive fan bases. App can still finish 8-3, but even at 7-4, they would have 7 D1 wins, 2 Ranked wins, and 3 losses to Ranked FCS teams and 1 to an FBS team. Thoughts? for app to get in with 7 wins it will have to more with how many butts they put in seats than who beat them.

[TheBoyWhoSeaWolf]

Stoney Brook @ EKU winner at No. 2 E. Washington
Villanova @ Sam Houston State

If Stony Brook wins out, as you predict, they'd be 10-1 with an FBS win, an FBS loss, and no FCS losses. In that case, they would not be playing on the road in a play-in game. They'd likely get a BYE, and could very well be hosting a game in the 2nd round.

[Fear the Bird]

I try not to be biased, but I have a hard time seeing a 7-4 App State team not making the playoffs....whether it is fair or not, App is the big name in FCS and along with Montana have to be most sought after due to their massive fan bases. App can still finish 8-3, but even at 7-4, they would have 7 D1 wins, 2 Ranked wins, and 3 losses to Ranked FCS teams and 1 to an FBS team. Thoughts?

2 ranked wins? Go by reality, not the measuring stick that is easier to keep track of (ranking at time of game).

[danefan]

If Stony Brook wins out, as you predict, they'd be 10-1 with an FBS win, an FBS loss, and no FCS losses. In that case, they would not be playing on the road in a play-in game. They'd likely get a BYE, and could very well be hosting a game in the 2nd round.

Agreed. SBU is not likely to be in a play-in game this year at 10-1 with an FBS win.

[Fear the Bird]

If Stony Brook wins out, as you predict, they'd be 10-1 with an FBS win, an FBS loss, and no FCS losses. In that case, they would not be playing on the road in a play-in game. They'd likely get a BYE, and could very well be hosting a game in the 2nd round.

Ahhh yes, another rookie on the boards...if you aren't seeded, it doesn't matter if you went 11-0 with and FBS win, it's all about how much you can bid, and in this case you would be on the road as EKU would outbid Stony Brook.

[danefan]

Ahhh yes, another rookie on the boards...if you aren't seeded, it doesn't matter if you went 11-0 with and FBS win, it's all about how much you can bid, and in this case you would be on the road as EKU would outbid Stony Brook.

The prediction had SBU in a play-in game @ EKU and then onto the second round at @#2.

And don't be so sure that EKU would outbid Stony Brook. EKU's bid last year wasn't astronomical. JMU's was just ridiculously low.

[MTfan4life]

If Stony Brook wins out, as you predict, they'd be 10-1 with an FBS win, an FBS loss, and no FCS losses. In that case, they would not be playing on the road in a play-in game. They'd likely get a BYE, and could very well be hosting a game in the 2nd round.

You must know that except for games involving seeded teams, the home team isn't decided by virtue of team strength. Each non seeded team bids for a home game in each round. Considering that Stony Brook's best home game crowd this season was 10,000, the only way they'd get a second round home game is if they were playing Albany or New Hampshire.

[Fear the Bird]

The prediction had SBU in a play-in game @ EKU and then onto the second round at @#2.

And don't be so sure that EKU would outbid Stony Brook. EKU's bid last year wasn't astronomical. JMU's was just ridiculously low.

I was speaking more to his point about assuming that SBU would host because of resume, not to his point that they wouldn't play in the first round

[danefan]

You must know that except for games involving seeded teams, the home team isn't decided by virtue of team strength. Each non seeded team bids for a home game in each round. Considering that Stony Brook's best home game crowd this season was 10,000, the only way they'd get a second round home game is if they were playing Albany or New Hampshire.

Attendance has very little to do with home games (not completely out of the picture though). The bid is what matters.

SBU has sugar daddies with huge $$$$$.

[danefan]

I was speaking more to his point about assuming that SBU would host because of resume, not to his point that they wouldn't play in the first round

Gotcha. I didn't read it as him saying they would host because of their resume. I read that point with regards to not playing in the opening round which is solely based on resume.

[Sammy94]

If UCA loses another conference game, and Sam Houston and SFA win out and end up tied, then would'nt Sam Houston get the autobid due the head-to-head victory over SFA?

Yes. You are correct. If Sam wins the remaining SLC games, SFA needs both them and UCA to win out in conference for a chance at the playoffs.

[App1928]

2 ranked wins? Go by reality, not the measuring stick that is easier to keep track of (ranking at time of game).


Yeah for sure, Montana was overated, Samford probably is as good as their ranking said at the time. I'll admit that App has not been up to the standard from 2005-2011....a 34-17 crushing over a good Chattanooga team and a win @ #25 Samford are really the only impressive results of the season as a 55-14 win over coastal carolina and 12 point win over elon doesnt say much....and the citadel loss was unjustifiably horrible....but if App ends up 7-4, the other 3 losses would be 35-17 at the hands of East Carolina, a 38-28 loss to #8 Wofford, and then a loss to #2 GA Southern....I know 'quality losses' do not (and should not) exist....but I can say that App is still a damn good team and I believe should be awarded for it's scheduling. The SoCon is tough (just like the CAA and Big Sky) all 3 conferences have 2 top 10 teams...and I believe teams like App and your Delaware both should get in at 7-4

Let's say Delaware finishes 7-4 (we will assume losses to ODU and Richmond) Delaware would finish 2-3 against ranked teams with another loss to an unranked William & Marry. App would be 7-4 with a 2-3 record against ranked teams (with 2 losses against top 10 teams) and with a much better out of conference schedule (East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Montana vs. West Chester, Delaware State, and Bucknell). I believe App (especially because of the bigger name recognition and fan base) and/or Delaware will sneak past potential at-larges such as EKU and Illinois State simply based on difficulty of schedule.

I could be wrong....and I know people will put down App State whenever they can, but App State is a good football team and the selection committee knows that and with the exception of the citadel loss, I dont think their are or more than 5 teams in the country (NDSU, GSU, EWU, JMU, and Montana State) who would finish with a better record than 7-4 with @ (FBS) East Carolina, @#2 Georgia Southern, #8 Wofford, @#25 Samford, #12 Montana, and @Chattanooga on the schedule. Then again, App could beat Georgia Southern and at 8-3 they would be a shoe in...or we could loss to GSU and Furman and not even be in the conversation...

But we will see....

[Fear the Bird]

Yeah for sure, Montana was overated, Samford probably is as good as their ranking said at the time. I'll admit that App has not been up to the standard from 2005-2011....a 34-17 crushing over a good Chattanooga team and a win @ #25 Samford are really the only impressive results of the season as a 55-14 win over coastal carolina and 12 point win over elon doesnt say much....and the citadel loss was unjustifiably horrible....but if App ends up 7-4, the other 3 losses would be 35-17 at the hands of East Carolina, a 38-28 loss to #8 Wofford, and then a loss to #2 GA Southern....I know 'quality losses' do not (and should not) exist....but I can say that App is still a damn good team and I believe should be awarded for it's scheduling. The SoCon is tough (just like the CAA and Big Sky) all 3 conferences have 2 top 10 teams...and I believe teams like App and your Delaware both should get in at 7-4

Let's say Delaware finishes 7-4 (we will assume losses to ODU and Richmond) Delaware would finish 2-3 against ranked teams with another loss to an unranked William & Marry. App would be 7-4 with a 2-3 record against ranked teams (with 2 losses against top 10 teams) and with a much better out of conference schedule (East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Montana vs. West Chester, Delaware State, and Bucknell). I believe App (especially because of the bigger name recognition and fan base) and/or Delaware will sneak past potential at-larges such as EKU and Illinois State simply based on difficulty of schedule.

I could be wrong....and I know people will put down App State whenever they can, but App State is a good football team and the selection committee knows that and with the exception of the citadel loss, I dont think their are or more than 5 teams in the country (NDSU, GSU, EWU, JMU, and Montana State) who would finish with a better record than 7-4 with @ (FBS) East Carolina, @#2 Georgia Southern, #8 Wofford, @#25 Samford, #12 Montana, and @Chattanooga on the schedule. Then again, App could beat Georgia Southern and at 8-3 they would be a shoe in...or we could loss to GSU and Furman and not even be in the conversation...

But we will see....

7-4 Delaware has NO shot at the playoffs with only 6 D-1 wins and a resume that would pale in comparison's to last year, when the committee did go with said EKU

[URMite]

Ahhh yes, another rookie on the boards...if you aren't seeded, it doesn't matter if you went 11-0 with and FBS win, it's all about how much you can bid, and in this case you would be on the road as EKU would outbid Stony Brook.

Outbiding EKU doesn't seem that hard...unless you are JMU...:D

[ITmonarch10]

Outbiding EKU doesn't seem that hard...unless you are JMU...:D

JMU's athletic director must of had a derp moment or something.

[URMite]

JMU's athletic director must of had a derp moment or something.

You realize why I said that right?
2007 EKU @ UR 1st rd
2008 EKU @ UR 1st rd
2011 JMU @ EKU 1st rd :D

See bidding is easy...
8 playoff trips, once as a seed, once to Boone in '87 xbawlingx, other 6 trips - at least one home game.

[URMite]

So I assume you don't think Samford or Jacksonville St can beat their BCS opponent?
Is Eastern Illinois on probation?

Only three teams I would have examined...

[TheBoyWhoSeaWolf]

Ahhh yes, another rookie on the boards...if you aren't seeded, it doesn't matter if you went 11-0 with and FBS win, it's all about how much you can bid, and in this case you would be on the road as EKU would outbid Stony Brook.

A rookie, yes. But I still don't see a 10-1 Stony Brook with 0 FCS losses playing in a play-in game (let alone being sent to Kentucky for it). Do you?

[danefan]

A rookie, yes. But I still don't see a 10-1 Stony Brook with 0 FCS losses playing in a play-in game (let alone being sent to Kentucky for it). Do you?

The point they were trying to make is that where the games are doesn't have anything to do with the resume of the team unless it gets you a seed. Home games for non-seeded teams are determined by the bids made by the two schools matched up. Not by records or accomplishments.

The first round, however, is reserved for the "bottom" 8 teams in the 20 team field. I completely agree that a 10-1 Stony Brook is not one of the bottom 8 teams in the field.

[URMite]

A rookie, yes. But I still don't see a 10-1 Stony Brook with 0 FCS losses playing in a play-in game (let alone being sent to Kentucky for it). Do you?

If the commitee thinks you are in the top 12 then no play-in game, I believe. But unless the committee thinks you are in the top 5 then your resume doesn't effect location, your bribe...I mean bid does.

[URMite]

Ok, I keep looking at this thread and 7 vs 8 Div I wins.
It seems...
NAU & SHSU can both finish 7-3 with 2 FBS games
Wofford, UTC, UCA, & Indiana St can finish 7-3 with 1 FBS game
MSU & Delaware can finish 7-3 without a FBS game

As you have pointed out ASU can finish 7-4 with a FBS game and a good SOS
Towson can finish 7-4 with 2 FBS games
Murray State can finish 7-4 with a FBS game
and both would pick up good wins along the way.

[URMite]

Suddenly, I don't see Southern Illinois...

[TheBoyWhoSeaWolf]

The point they were trying to make is that where the games are doesn't have anything to do with the resume of the team unless it gets you a seed. Home games for non-seeded teams are determined by the bids made by the two schools matched up. Not by records or accomplishments.

The first round, however, is reserved for the "bottom" 8 teams in the 20 team field. I completely agree that a 10-1 Stony Brook is not one of the bottom 8 teams in the field.

Of course we have to be 10-1 first before we have this discussion for real and I see the Liberty game at the end of the season as a bit of a trap. Hopefully they'll play like they're playing for their playoff lives and not like a team that feels they already have a birth sewn up. Liberty will be playing for their playoff lives.

[Go Apps]

I try not to be biased, but I have a hard time seeing a 7-4 App State team not making the playoffs....whether it is fair or not, App is the big name in FCS and along with Montana have to be most sought after due to their massive fan bases. App can still finish 8-3, but even at 7-4, they would have 7 D1 wins, 2 Ranked wins, and 3 losses to Ranked FCS teams and 1 to an FBS team. Thoughts?

The piece that stands out is the GPI of the conference is second and the CAA is listed as 4th or 5th - in past years this got them 4 teams so the GPI will be standing by their side if they can get to 7-4

[Go Apps]

Yeah for sure, Montana was overated, Samford probably is as good as their ranking said at the time. I'll admit that App has not been up to the standard from 2005-2011....a 34-17 crushing over a good Chattanooga team and a win @ #25 Samford are really the only impressive results of the season as a 55-14 win over coastal carolina and 12 point win over elon doesnt say much....and the citadel loss was unjustifiably horrible....but if App ends up 7-4, the other 3 losses would be 35-17 at the hands of East Carolina, a 38-28 loss to #8 Wofford, and then a loss to #2 GA Southern....I know 'quality losses' do not (and should not) exist....but I can say that App is still a damn good team and I believe should be awarded for it's scheduling. The SoCon is tough (just like the CAA and Big Sky) all 3 conferences have 2 top 10 teams...and I believe teams like App and your Delaware both should get in at 7-4

Let's say Delaware finishes 7-4 (we will assume losses to ODU and Richmond) Delaware would finish 2-3 against ranked teams with another loss to an unranked William & Marry. App would be 7-4 with a 2-3 record against ranked teams (with 2 losses against top 10 teams) and with a much better out of conference schedule (East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Montana vs. West Chester, Delaware State, and Bucknell). I believe App (especially because of the bigger name recognition and fan base) and/or Delaware will sneak past potential at-larges such as EKU and Illinois State simply based on difficulty of schedule.

I could be wrong....and I know people will put down App State whenever they can, but App State is a good football team and the selection committee knows that and with the exception of the citadel loss, I dont think their are or more than 5 teams in the country (NDSU, GSU, EWU, JMU, and Montana State) who would finish with a better record than 7-4 with @ (FBS) East Carolina, @#2 Georgia Southern, #8 Wofford, @#25 Samford, #12 Montana, and @Chattanooga on the schedule. Then again, App could beat Georgia Southern and at 8-3 they would be a shoe in...or we could loss to GSU and Furman and not even be in the conversation...

But we will see....

Unlike the Big Sky and CAA all Socon teams play each other - these super conferences should not be rewarded with avoiding to play so many teams each year picking up wins against bad opponents

[WrenFGun]

I unfortunately think that the MVFC (for MVFC fans) is going to canibalize themselves, with the exception of NDSU.

Look at these remaining schedules (bolding games that I expect will be won based on predictive factors (home game, current performance).

Indiana State: 5 DI wins -- SD, Illinois State, @YSU
Southern Illinois: 5 DI wins -- @NDSU, SDSU, WIU
SDSU: 5 DI wins -- YSU, @SIU, @NDSU, SD
Illinois State: 6 DI wins -- @UNI, @ISU-b, NDSU
YSU: 4 DI wins -- @SDSU, SD, @WIU, ISU-b

Based on reasonable projections, I don't see it likely that any of these teams get to 8 DI wins. Now, will ISU-r go 0-3 in their final 3? Perhaps not, but I think they are the dog in all three of those games. In the above scenario, though, you have NDSU winning the conference and four other teams (ISU-b, SDSU, YSU and SIU) reaching 7 DI wins, but none reaching 8.

Now factor in that I think only TWO Southern Teams will have 8 DI wins (Samford and Chattanooga can only get 7, Appalachian State would need to beat GSU to get 8) and I think the committee will have a tough division to make.

I think it's pretty likely that as many as four CAA teams (UNH, ODU, Villanova, JMU, Richmond) will have 8 DI wins, so I really have no idea how it will compare. It also seems a near certainty that four BSC teams will have 8 DI wins, so I guess my feeling is that if the committee is going to pull some 7 DI win teams, they're going to look at the MVFC and the SoCON, first (MVFC's 2nd place team, and then probably Appalachian State).

...if I had to take an outside guess:

Colonial: New Hampshire
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Stony Brook
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Albany
OVC: Tennessee State
PL: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
SLC: UCA

At-Large:

Cal Poly (lock for 8 DI wins, though might feel trouble if they go 1-3 in last 4 [@NAU, @EWU, @Sac. State])
Old Dominion (good bet for 8 DI wins, wins over Richmond and UNH, should go 2-2 in last 4 at least [W&M, @Georgia State, UD, @JMU]
NAU (good bet for 8 DI wins and have FBS win [@IDSU, @NoCO, SUU and Cal Poly at home])
Montana State (decent bet for 8 DI wins [ND, PSU, @Sac State, @Montana --> would be replaced in field by Sac State if Sac State wins out])
Villanova (decent bet for 8 DI wins [Towson, JMU, @UD])
Richmond (decent bet for 8 DI wins [URI, UD, @W&M])*
Wofford (decent bet for 8 DI wins [Chattanooga, @Samford, Citadel])
Eastern Kentucky (decent bet for 8 DI wins [EIU, Murray St., @Semo], need to go 2-1)
UTM (decent bet for 8 DI wins [JSU, TSU, @TT], need to go 2-1)

*I do not think James Madison is LIKELY to get to 8 DI wins. They'd need to go 3-1 in their last four and 2-1 @Maine, @'Nova and ODU at home. I think they'd be a dog in the last two and @Maine is tough for a team from Virginia in November.

So you're going to call me nuts, but I think those nine teams are all better than 50/50 shot to get to at least 8 DI wins. The OVC has really strong records in a lot of areas, got 2 teams last year and may be likely to have 3 with 8 DI wins this year. In particular, the EIU over SIU win seems like a BIG one. If things shake out like this, there would only be ONE spot for a 7 DI win team (and perhaps two if the committee (rightly) decides that the OVC probably doesn't deserve THREE teams) and there are a LOT of quality 7 DI win teams out there ... JMU (unlikely given they'd be the 5th from the CAA), Sam Houston State, Appalachian State, Indiana State, SIU, SDSU, YSU. I'd have to think Indiana State would be the favorite given their premium win over NDSU, but my goodness what a potential logjam.

[Go Apps]

I unfortunately think that the MVFC (for MVFC fans) is going to canibalize themselves, with the exception of NDSU.

Look at these remaining schedules (bolding games that I expect will be won based on predictive factors (home game, current performance).

Indiana State: 5 DI wins -- SD, Illinois State, @YSU
Southern Illinois: 5 DI wins -- @NDSU, SDSU, WIU
SDSU: 5 DI wins -- YSU, @SIU, @NDSU, SD
Illinois State: 6 DI wins -- @UNI, @ISU-b, NDSU
YSU: 4 DI wins -- @SDSU, SD, @WIU, ISU-b

Based on reasonable projections, I don't see it likely that any of these teams get to 8 DI wins. Now, will ISU-r go 0-3 in their final 3? Perhaps not, but I think they are the dog in all three of those games. In the above scenario, though, you have NDSU winning the conference and four other teams (ISU-b, SDSU, YSU and SIU) reaching 7 DI wins, but none reaching 8.

Now factor in that I think only TWO Southern Teams will have 8 DI wins (Samford and Chattanooga can only get 7, Appalachian State would need to beat GSU to get 8) and I think the committee will have a tough division to make.

I think it's pretty likely that as many as four CAA teams (UNH, ODU, Villanova, JMU, Richmond) will have 8 DI wins, so I really have no idea how it will compare. It also seems a near certainty that four BSC teams will have 8 DI wins, so I guess my feeling is that if the committee is going to pull some 7 DI win teams, they're going to look at the MVFC and the SoCON, first (MVFC's 2nd place team, and then probably Appalachian State).

...if I had to take an outside guess:

Colonial: New Hampshire
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Stony Brook
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Albany
OVC: Tennessee State
PL: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
SLC: UCA

At-Large:

Cal Poly (lock for 8 DI wins, though might feel trouble if they go 1-3 in last 4 [@NAU, @EWU, @Sac. State])
Old Dominion (good bet for 8 DI wins, wins over Richmond and UNH, should go 2-2 in last 4 at least [W&M, @Georgia State, UD, @JMU]
NAU (good bet for 8 DI wins and have FBS win [@IDSU, @NoCO, SUU and Cal Poly at home])
Montana State (decent bet for 8 DI wins [ND, PSU, @Sac State, @Montana --> would be replaced in field by Sac State if Sac State wins out])
Villanova (decent bet for 8 DI wins [Towson, JMU, @UD])
Richmond (decent bet for 8 DI wins [URI, UD, @W&M])*
Wofford (decent bet for 8 DI wins [Chattanooga, @Samford, Citadel])
Eastern Kentucky (decent bet for 8 DI wins [EIU, Murray St., @Semo], need to go 2-1)
UTM (decent bet for 8 DI wins [JSU, TSU, @TT], need to go 2-1)

*I do not think James Madison is LIKELY to get to 8 DI wins. They'd need to go 3-1 in their last four and 2-1 @Maine, @'Nova and ODU at home. I think they'd be a dog in the last two and @Maine is tough for a team from Virginia in November.

So you're going to call me nuts, but I think those nine teams are all better than 50/50 shot to get to at least 8 DI wins. The OVC has really strong records in a lot of areas, got 2 teams last year and may be likely to have 3 with 8 DI wins this year. In particular, the EIU over SIU win seems like a BIG one. If things shake out like this, there would only be ONE spot for a 7 DI win team (and perhaps two if the committee (rightly) decides that the OVC probably doesn't deserve THREE teams) and there are a LOT of quality 7 DI win teams out there ... JMU (unlikely given they'd be the 5th from the CAA), Sam Houston State, Appalachian State, Indiana State, SIU, SDSU, YSU. I'd have to think Indiana State would be the favorite given their premium win over NDSU, but my goodness what a potential logjam.

Man you need to take a look at the GPI that has always been a big indicator of playoff teams and the committee uses this as their top guides..the OVC ranked 6th is going to get 3 - I think they get 2 but that is it - the CAA getting 4 is likely as well in past years the CAA has ruled the GPI but too many bottom feeders to yeild quality this year and it is showing I think they are limited to 3 - the MVC will get likely 3 in the field, the Socon should has 2 but should get 3 depends on if ASU can get to 7-4 - the conference likely to get maybe 4 is the Big Sky but I think the commttee spreads the wealth - 3 MVC, 3 CAA, 3 Big Sky, 2 OVC, 2 southland, 3 Socon - now Lehigh and Stoney need to win out to make certain that diaster does not hit the field.... there is a lot of football left but relooking at this the OVC may have difficulty due to the polls not being kind to them - and as we know they have put two OVC schools in twice that many believe was a surprise maybe this year is payback and they get Woffed - someone or two will get Woffed for sure


Conference Ranking:

Rank, League, Total Average
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (23.70)
2. Southern Conference (30.00)
3. Big Sky Conference (32.58)
4. Southland Conference (38.04)
5. Colonial Athletic Association (39.05)
6. Ohio Valley Conference (40.08)
7. Patriot League (57.12)
8. Ivy League (57.32)
9. Big South Conference (64.04)
10. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (65.09)
11. Northeast Conference (66.56)
12. Southwestern Athletic Conference (75.44)
13. Pioneer Football League (77.05)


1. N Dakota St (7) (1.57)
2. Ga Southern (3.71)
3. E Washington (2) (4.00)
4. Cal Poly (4.86)
5. Sam Houston St (6.71)
6. Montana St (7.71)
7. Northern Arizona (8.14)
8. Indiana St (9.29)
9. Wofford (9.57)
10. Old Dominion (12.14)
11. Cent Arkansas (13.71)
12. Stony Brook (14.86)
13. S Dakota St (15.57)
14. Appalachian St (17.14)
15T. New Hampshire 18.29)
15T. Illinois St (18.29)
17. Northern Iowa (19.29)
18. E Kentucky (19.43)
19. S Illinois (20.14)
20. Villanova (20.57)
21. Youngstown St (21.14)
22T. Albany (22.43)
22T. James Madison (22.43)
24. Harvard (22.71)
25. Tennessee St (22.86)

[R.A.]

Can someone please post the MEAC's record versus the Big South in 2012?

[Fear the Bird]

Unlike the Big Sky and CAA all Socon teams play each other - these super conferences should not be rewarded with avoiding to play so many teams each year picking up wins against bad opponents

Meh, it's not like anybody (well I speak for UD so I could be wrong) has the optimal schedule of playing Rhody and Ga St this year and avoiding UNH and ODU. UD doesn't get Ga St (or JMU) this year but does get Rhody, but I don't really see that as any different than being "forced" to play Western Carolina. Granted SoCon appears to be very deep this year especially with Citadel's early success

[WrenFGun]

Man you need to take a look at the GPI that has always been a big indicator of playoff teams and the committee uses this as their top guides..the OVC ranked 6th is going to get 3 - I think they get 2 but that is it - the CAA getting 4 is likely as well in past years the CAA has ruled the GPI but too many bottom feeders to yeild quality this year and it is showing I think they are limited to 3 - the MVC will get likely 3 in the field, the Socon should has 2 but should get 3 depends on if ASU can get to 7-4 - the conference likely to get maybe 4 is the Big Sky but I think the commttee spreads the wealth - 3 MVC, 3 CAA, 3 Big Sky, 2 OVC, 2 southland, 3 Socon - now Lehigh and Stoney need to win out to make certain that diaster does not hit the field.... there is a lot of football left but relooking at this the OVC may have difficulty due to the polls not being kind to them - and as we know they have put two OVC schools in twice that many believe was a surprise maybe this year is payback and they get Woffed - someone or two will get Woffed for sure


Conference Ranking:

Rank, League, Total Average
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (23.70)
2. Southern Conference (30.00)
3. Big Sky Conference (32.58)
4. Southland Conference (38.04)
5. Colonial Athletic Association (39.05)
6. Ohio Valley Conference (40.08)
7. Patriot League (57.12)
8. Ivy League (57.32)
9. Big South Conference (64.04)
10. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (65.09)
11. Northeast Conference (66.56)
12. Southwestern Athletic Conference (75.44)
13. Pioneer Football League (77.05)


1. N Dakota St (7) (1.57)
2. Ga Southern (3.71)
3. E Washington (2) (4.00)
4. Cal Poly (4.86)
5. Sam Houston St (6.71)
6. Montana St (7.71)
7. Northern Arizona (8.14)
8. Indiana St (9.29)
9. Wofford (9.57)
10. Old Dominion (12.14)
11. Cent Arkansas (13.71)
12. Stony Brook (14.86)
13. S Dakota St (15.57)
14. Appalachian St (17.14)
15T. New Hampshire 18.29)
15T. Illinois St (18.29)
17. Northern Iowa (19.29)
18. E Kentucky (19.43)
19. S Illinois (20.14)
20. Villanova (20.57)
21. Youngstown St (21.14)
22T. Albany (22.43)
22T. James Madison (22.43)
24. Harvard (22.71)
25. Tennessee St (22.86)

The problem with looking at the GPI right now is that the season isn't over; it doesn't have much value now (or really, anytime) because there are numerous games left to play. I'm not forecasting what will happen if the season ended today, based on GPI. I'm looking at the teams who are likely to have 8 DI wins. I think the OVC does not get more than two, which means two of SHSU, App. State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, SDSU and YSU would have an opportunity to get in.

I think it's fairly likely at this time that the BSC and CAA will get 4, with JMU and Sacramento State effectively able to step in for Richmond (or 'Nova) and MSU, respectively.

[Go Apps]

Meh, it's not like anybody (well I speak for UD so I could be wrong) has the optimal schedule of playing Rhody and Ga St this year and avoiding UNH and ODU. UD doesn't get Ga St (or JMU) this year but does get Rhody, but I don't really see that as any different than being "forced" to play Western Carolina. Granted SoCon appears to be very deep this year especially with Citadel's early success

JMU - avoids Del and N Hamp
NHamp - avoids Nova and JMU
Del - avoids JMU

get rid of your out of conference games and add 2 more conference games - if you play the games above and others not mentioned 2 - 4 teams would really stand out from the CAA not a jumbled mess

Yes WCU might be at the bottom this year but has given fits to several teams and will continue to do so - Ga St and Rhody are not doing that ...

Again super conferences like CAA should not get all these bids as they don't play the full slate....the Big Sky is much worse this year as so many teams avoid playing each others like

Cal Poly - avoids Montana, Mont State and S. Utah
N Arizona - avoids Mont State, Sac State, E Washington
Sac State - avoids Montana, N. Arizona

Just imagine if they played all teams - we would not be talking about 4-5 teams playoff worthy from the Big Sky

[danefan]

Man you need to take a look at the GPI that has always been a big indicator of playoff teams and the committee uses this as their top guides..the OVC ranked 6th is going to get 3 - I think they get 2 but that is it - the CAA getting 4 is likely as well in past years the CAA has ruled the GPI but too many bottom feeders to yeild quality this year and it is showing I think they are limited to 3 - the MVC will get likely 3 in the field, the Socon should has 2 but should get 3 depends on if ASU can get to 7-4 - the conference likely to get maybe 4 is the Big Sky but I think the commttee spreads the wealth - 3 MVC, 3 CAA, 3 Big Sky, 2 OVC, 2 southland, 3 Socon - now Lehigh and Stoney need to win out to make certain that diaster does not hit the field.... there is a lot of football left but relooking at this the OVC may have difficulty due to the polls not being kind to them - and as we know they have put two OVC schools in twice that many believe was a surprise maybe this year is payback and they get Woffed - someone or two will get Woffed for sure


Conference Ranking:

Rank, League, Total Average
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (23.70)
2. Southern Conference (30.00)
3. Big Sky Conference (32.58)
4. Southland Conference (38.04)
5. Colonial Athletic Association (39.05)
6. Ohio Valley Conference (40.08)
7. Patriot League (57.12)
8. Ivy League (57.32)
9. Big South Conference (64.04)
10. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (65.09)
11. Northeast Conference (66.56)
12. Southwestern Athletic Conference (75.44)
13. Pioneer Football League (77.05)


1. N Dakota St (7) (1.57)
2. Ga Southern (3.71)
3. E Washington (2) (4.00)
4. Cal Poly (4.86)
5. Sam Houston St (6.71)
6. Montana St (7.71)
7. Northern Arizona (8.14)
8. Indiana St (9.29)
9. Wofford (9.57)
10. Old Dominion (12.14)
11. Cent Arkansas (13.71)
12. Stony Brook (14.86)
13. S Dakota St (15.57)
14. Appalachian St (17.14)
15T. New Hampshire 18.29)
15T. Illinois St (18.29)
17. Northern Iowa (19.29)
18. E Kentucky (19.43)
19. S Illinois (20.14)
20. Villanova (20.57)
21. Youngstown St (21.14)
22T. Albany (22.43)
22T. James Madison (22.43)
24. Harvard (22.71)
25. Tennessee St (22.86)

Untrue and unproven.

The Committee has their own ranking system. The GPI has been proven again and again to be less reliable in picking at-larges than the AGS poll. Take a look at some of the At-larges over the years and their ranking in the year-end GPI. South Carolina State was up in the high 40's and received an at-large.

[URMite]

Meh, it's not like anybody (well I speak for UD so I could be wrong) has the optimal schedule of playing Rhody and Ga St this year and avoiding UNH and ODU. UD doesn't get Ga St (or JMU) this year but does get Rhody, but I don't really see that as any different than being "forced" to play Western Carolina. Granted SoCon appears to be very deep this year especially with Citadel's early success

Before the season that would have been us. UR misses Towson & Maine. Weren't they co-champs last year? Not so much this year...

[URMite]

Conference Ranking:

Rank, League, Total Average
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (23.70)
2. Southern Conference (30.00)
3. Big Sky Conference (32.58)
4. Southland Conference (38.04)
5. Colonial Athletic Association (39.05)
6. Ohio Valley Conference (40.08)
7. Patriot League (57.12)
8. Ivy League (57.32)
9. Big South Conference (64.04)
10. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (65.09)
11. Northeast Conference (66.56)
12. Southwestern Athletic Conference (75.44)
13. Pioneer Football League (77.05)



Although you are overstating the significance of what you are using to measure it (GPI), looking at conference strength is a good point.

In general, I thought the consensus was
1-4 (in no particular order) Big Sky, MVFC, CAA, SoCon
5-6 Southland, OVC
7-8 Patriot, MEAC
9-10 Big South, NEC
11 Pioneer

and ignoring the Ivy, SWAC as non-participants

To get an at-large the committee appears to have required more of #11 than anyone else and more of 9-10 than those above them. Fans seem to have seen more separation between 1-4 & 5-8 than the committee has. The committee has surprised us with a MEAC, OVC, or Patriot team over the years.

My question is do people think the CAA has more in common with 5-8 than 1-4 this year?

[danefan]

Although you are overstating the significance of what you are using to measure it (GPI), looking at conference strength is a good point.

In general, I thought the consensus was
1-4 (in no particular order) Big Sky, MVFC, CAA, SoCon
5-6 Southland, OVC
7-8 Patriot, MEAC
9-10 Big South, NEC
11 Pioneer

and ignoring the Ivy, SWAC as non-participants

To get an at-large the committee appears to have required more of #11 than anyone else and more of 9-10 than those above them. Fans seem to have seen more separation between 1-4 & 5-8 than the committee has. The committee has surprised us with a MEAC, OVC, or Patriot team over the years.

My question is do people think the CAA has more in common with 5-8 than 1-4 this year?

Not sure I'd put the MEAC on the same page as the Patriot League. MEAC is down this year and if you're looking at at-large candidates I'd expect them to be on the same level as the Big South and NEC - in other words no chance.

[Humble Steward]

I'm not sure if the MEAC is down this year or if there are just other teams that have stepped forward. New coaches at Howard, NCCU, Del State, and B-CU have made an impact on their teams performance. I believe that the surprises are that SCSU, FAMU, and Norfolk St. are not in the hunt for the conference title. Just my opinion and maybe a different way to look at why there has been a shift in the teams in contention for the MEAC title.

[URMite]

Not sure I'd put the MEAC on the same page as the Patriot League. MEAC is down this year and if you're looking at at-large candidates I'd expect them to be on the same level as the Big South and NEC - in other words no chance.

By "In general" I meant the last 7-8 years or so as opposed to this season. I did those grouping from past observations of fans expectations of what teams from those conference had to do to get an at-large (8-3, 9-2, 10-1, 11-0).

Are those expectations about conferences changing for this year or for a few years in the future?

In other words is it really shifting to
1-3 Big Sky, MVFC, SoCon
4-6 CAA, Southland, OVC
7 Patriot
8-10 MEAC, Big South, NEC
11 Pioneer

or is that an anomaly? and will it effect this season's committee's interpretation of individual teams SOS?

[danefan]

By "In general" I meant the last 7-8 years or so as opposed to this season. I did those grouping from past observations of fans expectations of what teams from those conference had to do to get an at-large (8-3, 9-2, 10-1, 11-0).

Are those expectations about conferences changing for this year or for a few years in the future?

In other words is it really shifting to
1-3 Big Sky, MVFC, SoCon
4-6 CAA, Southland, OVC
7 Patriot
8-10 MEAC, Big South, NEC
11 Pioneer

or is that an anomaly? and will it effect this season's committee's interpretation of individual teams SOS?

Only time will tell, especially with conference realignment. For example, the NEC has an uphill battle after Albany leaves. The MEAC might lose someone to the Socon or even the NEC. The CAA gets stronger overall with Albany and Stony Brook added (replacing ODU and GaState).

[WileECoyote06]

Can someone please post the MEAC's record versus the Big South in 2012?

I think 2 - 1; NSU over Liberty; Delaware State over VMI - Coastal Carolina over A&T

[WileECoyote06]

I'm not sure if the MEAC is down this year or if there are just other teams that have stepped forward. New coaches at Howard, NCCU, Del State, and B-CU have made an impact on their teams performance. I believe that the surprises are that SCSU, FAMU, and Norfolk St. are not in the hunt for the conference title. Just my opinion and maybe a different way to look at why there has been a shift in the teams in contention for the MEAC title.

I agree. I remind folks on MEACfanszone all the time that seven of the conference's 11 football coaches have won a conference championship at some level (Jenkins, Taylor, Pough, Adrian, Frazier, Broadway, Blount). These guys know how to coach talent when they get it. I think we are a year ahead of what I predicted, but this was bound to happen in the next two to three years.

I'm not guaranteeing a playoff win though, as all MEAC schools still need help on the offensive line; but the conference, save Savannah State isn't nearly as bad as its been in the past.

[Grizalltheway]

Does anyone else feel that EWU should get the #1 seed ahead of NDSU if they both win out (attendance figures aside, of course)?

[WrenFGun]

Does anyone else feel that EWU should get the #1 seed ahead of NDSU if they both win out (attendance figures aside, of course)?

If EWU beats Poly, MSU and an FBS, then yeah, IMO, they should be #1. NDSU is a little bit of a victim of the MVFC beating up on each other. I think they'll have a lot of wins that will look worse because those teams beat up on each other.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Does anyone else feel that EWU should get the #1 seed ahead of NDSU if they both win out (attendance figures aside, of course)?

Yep. No loss to an FCS team.

[Cap'n Obvious]

The latest TSN bracket projection has NDSU as the overall #1 seed. Question - is Indiana State expected to win out? If they did and I assume they would hold the tie breaker over NDSU for the conference, right now Indiana State is playing the first round game and potentially traveling to NDSU in the semi's. Is this feasible?

[NoDak 4 Ever]

The latest TSN bracket projection has NDSU as the overall #1 seed. Question - is Indiana State expected to win out? If they did and I assume they would hold the tie breaker over NDSU for the conference, right now Indiana State is playing the first round game and potentially traveling to NDSU in the semi's. Is this feasible?

ISUb would get the autobid and NDSU would be the at large, no big deal. Seeding is based on the whole resume and NDSU has the FBS win and is likely to have 1 loss vs. 2

[Go Apps]

I agree. I remind folks on MEACfanszone all the time that seven of the conference's 11 football coaches have won a conference championship at some level (Jenkins, Taylor, Pough, Adrian, Frazier, Broadway, Blount). These guys know how to coach talent when they get it. I think we are a year ahead of what I predicted, but this was bound to happen in the next two to three years.

I'm not guaranteeing a playoff win though, as all MEAC schools still need help on the offensive line; but the conference, save Savannah State isn't nearly as bad as its been in the past.

Howard plays GSU in a couple of weeks we will find out how strong the conference is then...I am starting to like NC Central - a nice first round match with ASU would be an easy choice

[Cap'n Obvious]

ISUb would get the autobid and NDSU would be the at large, no big deal. Seeding is based on the whole resume and NDSU has the FBS win and is likely to have 1 loss vs. 2

True - I'm just thinking the committee would look at potential other 1 loss conference winners as being more deserving of a 1 seed versus a team that did not win their conference. Even if they have a FBS win. Obviously they must be predicting a few more losses to be spread around but I was not sure the likelihood of ISU winning out.

[MTfan4life]

True - I'm just thinking the committee would look at potential other 1 loss conference winners as being more deserving of a 1 seed versus a team that did not win their conference. Even if they have a FBS win. Obviously they must be predicting a few more losses to be spread around but I was not sure the likelihood of ISU winning out.

Essentially the only difference between the 2 and 1 seeds is the potential of playing the 4 seed instead of the 3 seed. Otherwise both seeds result in home field advantage and don't give you any advantage in the championship. Aka, a 2 seed is just as valuable as a 1 seed.

[WileECoyote06]

Howard plays GSU in a couple of weeks we will find out how strong the conference is then...I am starting to like NC Central - a nice first round match with ASU would be an easy choice

Not sure if that's going to give you an accurate gauge. Ga. Southern is a top three team playing a team that isn't even in the top 70 according to the GPI. If they stay within three scores, I'd count it as a moral victory.

It's an upset of Duke-Lehigh/NSU - Missouri proportions; except that Howard doesn't get to do it on a neutral field. *shrug*

If you're playing NCCU that means you're in the round of 8; are you sure yall wanna be down here with us?

[ngineer]

You beat Michigan, right?

Seems like a long time ago...what, four years, now? What a game that was!

[tingly]

That ended up being not so much of an upset after the bookies figured out both teams later on. They would have put it on Michigan -8 (? if memory serves) instead of -30something. Once in awhile I still browse the youtube videos of crowds around the Big 10 cheering against Michigan underneath their stadiums.

[Go Apps]

That ended up being not so much of an upset after the bookies figured out both teams later on. They would have put it on Michigan -8 (? if memory serves) instead of -30something. Once in awhile I still browse the youtube videos of crowds around the Big 10 cheering against Michigan underneath their stadiums.

Always great to pull up the clips from time to time:)