CAA Playoff needs

[melloware13]

Team - Remaining Games - Needed Record (if possible)
Old Dominion - Del, @GSU, W&M, @JMU - 1-3 or better
New Hampshire - @URI, W&M, Towson - 1-2 or better
Villanova - Towson, JMU, @Del - 1-2 or better
James Madison - GSU, @Maine, @Nova, ODU - 2-2 or better
Richmond - URI, Del, @W&M - 2-1 or 3-0
Delaware - @ODU, Towson, @Rich, Nova - 3-1 or 4-0
Towson - @Nova, @Del, URI, @UNH - 4-0
Maine - @W&M, JMU, GSU, @URI - Out
William & Mary - Maine, @UNH, @ODU, Rich - Out
Rhode Island - UNH, @Rich, @Towson, Maine - Out
Georgia State - @JMU, ODU, @Maine - Ineligible

My Odds:
ODU, UNH: virtual lock
Nova, JMU, Rich: should get to 7, could need help
Del, Towson: most likely needs help

[stevdock]

I don't think 7 wins is going to be enough this year. My guess is that the Big Sky for example will have at least 4 teams with at least an 8-3 record, they might all have 9-2 or better records (those 4 don't play each other enough this year to be worse than that). Southern will probably have a bunch at 7 or 8 wins too. I don't know about the MVFC anymore. Knock out rounds right now might eliminate another team from 8 wins next week (YSU), but my guess is 3 with 8 wins. OVC might have 3 with 9 wins. And then what shakes out with the CAA should eliminate most 7 win teams.

[Engineer86]

Team - Remaining Games - Needed Record (if possible)
Old Dominion - Del, @GSU, W&M, @JMU - 1-3 or better
New Hampshire - @URI, W&M, Towson - 1-2 or better
Villanova - Towson, JMU, @Del - 1-2 or better
James Madison - GSU, @Maine, @Nova, ODU - 2-2 or better
Richmond - URI, Del, @W&M - 2-1 or 3-0
Delaware - @ODU, Towson, @Rich, Nova - 3-1 or 4-0
Towson - @Nova, @Del, URI, @UNH - 4-0
Maine - @W&M, JMU, GSU, @URI - Out
William & Mary - Maine, @UNH, @ODU, Rich - Out
Rhode Island - UNH, @Rich, @Towson, Maine - Out
Georgia State - @JMU, ODU, @Maine - Ineligible

My Odds:
ODU, UNH: virtual lock
Nova, JMU, Rich: should get to 7, could need help
Del, Towson: most likely needs help

I think to be safe each of these teams need to get to 8-3, but now I think there is a chance of a team getting in at 7-4. Still so many possibilities this is tougher than I expected.

ODU - needs 2-2, likely
UNH - 2-1, likely
Nova - 2-1, likely
JMU - 3-1, not likely
Richmond - 3-0, likely
Delaware - 4-0, not likely
Towson - 4-0, not likely

[melloware13]

Delaware only needs to go 3-1 to hit 8-3 overall, but since they played West Chester, 7-4 will keep them out. I'm pretty sure UD is the only team of these that played a D-II team this year.

[paward]

I may need some help with this one. If ODU can not win the CAA then will they represent the CAA in the playoffs? I know they can and will get in but does that mean the CAA only get two teams in to represent. If all the above is true then it is very likely a 7-4 CAA team may get in. Hey stranger things have happen before.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I may need some help with this one. If ODU can not win the CAA then will they represent the CAA in the playoffs? I know they can and will get in but does that mean the CAA only get two teams in to represent. If all the above is true then it is very likely a 7-4 CAA team may get in. Hey stranger things have happen before.

ODU in the playoffs is still representing the CAA, just as an at-large instead of the autobid.

[jmufan999]

I may need some help with this one. If ODU can not win the CAA then will they represent the CAA in the playoffs? I know they can and will get in but does that mean the CAA only get two teams in to represent. If all the above is true then it is very likely a 7-4 CAA team may get in. Hey stranger things have happen before.

Here's how I've been thinking about it.

I expect ODU to beat JMU 11/17 (hope I'm wrong) and have the best CAA record at 9-2 or 10-1. If either of these happens, they're a seed. Doesn't matter that they can't get the autobid. Assuming all that happens, I'd expect the CAA to get another 3 teams: choose from Villanova, Richmond, UNH, or JMU.

3 of those teams get in the playoffs, 1 goes home. If JMU would have beaten UR, I would say we were a virtual lock. Not at all the case now. I think UD is out because they need an 8-3 record for 7 D-1 wins and they have a brutal schedule remaining. Towson is evidently not as good as I thought, coming into this year. I believe Towson and UD are now out. Remember, this is coming from the world's worst predictor.

Final thought (intentional Jerry Springer reference. What is he doing these days, anyway?): Winner of JMU/Villanova gets in the playoffs, loser is out. I'd be surprised if the CAA only gets 3 teams, although it's definitely possible. I don't necessarily buy the theory that 7 wins = watching the playoffs at home this year. Possible, but some 7-4 team will make it.

[paward]

ODU in the playoffs is still representing the CAA, just as an at-large instead of the autobid.

Although not official but they will be a auto bid but not the CAA auto bid. Ok then say NH is the auto bid for the CAA. It will still be a better than average odd that two additional CAA teams get in with one of those team potentially being 7-4. Not saying it is a good case scenario for us (Spiders). It is possible that JMU, Villanova or Deleware (sin/con West Chester) could be that 7-4 team.

Hate to start another 100 page thread about how the committee favors the CAA. But I have seen the time we got a team in that in most cases would have been home.

[Engineer86]

Delaware only needs to go 3-1 to hit 8-3 overall, but since they played West Chester, 7-4 will keep them out. I'm pretty sure UD is the only team of these that played a D-II team this year.

I was really say 8 D I wins when I said 8-3, which is why I said UD needed four more wins.

[Engineer86]

Although not official but they will be a auto bid but not the CAA auto bid. Ok then say NH is the auto bid for the CAA. It will still be a better than average odd that two additional CAA teams get in with one of those team potentially being 7-4. Not saying it is a good case scenario for us (Spiders). It is possible that JMU, Villanova or Deleware (sin/con West Chester) could be that 7-4 team.

Hate to start another 100 page thread about how the committee favors the CAA. But I have seen the time we got a team in that in most cases would have been home.

Auto bids are assigned to league, on per. ODU will only get in as one of the 10 at large teams, someone else gets the CAA auto bid. At this point I would agree with ODU, auto bid team and two others getting in from the CAA though.

[Fear the Bird]

I was really say 8 D I wins when I said 8-3, which is why I said UD needed four more wins.

If UD finishes 8-3 (7-3) they are in...as it currently stands if the loss is at home to Towson that is worst case scenario but means they would have beaten @ODU, @Richmond, vs Nova

[Engineer86]

If UD finishes 8-3 (7-3) they are in...as it currently stands if the loss is at home to Towson that is worst case scenario but means they would have beaten @ODU, @Richmond, vs Nova

That would be a nice finish, but would still depend on other teams, in my opinion

[WrenFGun]

If UD finishes 8-3 (7-3) they are in...as it currently stands if the loss is at home to Towson that is worst case scenario but means they would have beaten @ODU, @Richmond, vs Nova

At that point, definitely. They'd be at LEAST at the same loss threshold as two of the teams they beat with the tiebreaker over both. A UD win over UR would likely knock them out of the playoffs.

[URMite]

In my opinion, Towson is the team that gets the most consideration at 7-4 & Delaware gets in at 8-3 but the Div II drags them down some.

So what is needed is:

Old Dominion (1 loss no FBS)- Del, @GSU, W&M, @JMU - 2-2 or better
New Hampshire (2 losses 1 FBS)- @URI, W&M, Towson - 2-1 or better
Villanova (2 losses 1 FBS)- Towson, JMU, @Del - 2-1 or better
James Madison (2 losses 1 FBS)- GSU, @Maine, @Nova, ODU - 3-1 or better
Richmond (3 losses 1 FBS)- URI, Del, @W&M - 3-0
Delaware (2 losses, Div II win)- @ODU, Towson, @Rich, Nova - 3-1 or better
Towson (4 losses 2 FBS)- @Nova, @Del, URI, @UNH - 4-0

[andy7171]

You guys really think if towson wins out and finishes 7-4 the won't get in? That would mean our losses would be to ODU and JMU, two top 10 teams and Kent State and LSU, two FBS schools.

[bluehenbillk]

You guys really think if towson wins out and finishes 7-4 the won't get in? That would mean our losses would be to ODU and JMU, two top 10 teams and Kent State and LSU, two FBS schools.

Not worth the conversation because Towson has no shot of 7-4. I told you in the summer but you...never...listen

[ITmonarch10]

You guys really think if towson wins out and finishes 7-4 the won't get in? That would mean our losses would be to ODU and JMU, two top 10 teams and Kent State and LSU, two FBS schools.

You would get in at 7-4 with your schedule ,but it not likely you will win all 4 of those games.

[Go Apps]

I don't think 7 wins is going to be enough this year. My guess is that the Big Sky for example will have at least 4 teams with at least an 8-3 record, they might all have 9-2 or better records (those 4 don't play each other enough this year to be worse than that). Southern will probably have a bunch at 7 or 8 wins too. I don't know about the MVFC anymore. Knock out rounds right now might eliminate another team from 8 wins next week (YSU), but my guess is 3 with 8 wins. OVC might have 3 with 9 wins. And then what shakes out with the CAA should eliminate most 7 win teams.

The strength of the conference will kill CAA this year for once - the Socon is likely to steal a spot from the CAA due to the GPI - 3 tems are a lock - 4 seems unlikely the conference is too large and the powers do not play each other - sam problem in the Big Sky - I do not think we should reward large conferences who do not play each other fully - it really shows your top 3 teams if all played..

I do not like the chances of a 7-4 at large team but am starting to believe ASU may be that team if any is due to history and most importantly $$$ leading attendance is key and the Chair of the committee is our AD

[Go Apps]

In my opinion, Towson is the team that gets the most consideration at 7-4 & Delaware gets in at 8-3 but the Div II drags them down some.

So what is needed is:

Old Dominion (1 loss no FBS)- Del, @GSU, W&M, @JMU - 2-2 or better
New Hampshire (2 losses 1 FBS)- @URI, W&M, Towson - 2-1 or better
Villanova (2 losses 1 FBS)- Towson, JMU, @Del - 2-1 or better
James Madison (2 losses 1 FBS)- GSU, @Maine, @Nova, ODU - 3-1 or better
Richmond (3 losses 1 FBS)- URI, Del, @W&M - 3-0
Delaware (2 losses, Div II win)- @ODU, Towson, @Rich, Nova - 3-1 or better
Towson (4 losses 2 FBS)- @Nova, @Del, URI, @UNH - 4-0

Towson will not win out so eliminated
Delaware will lose at least once more I say twice - eliminated - even at 8-3 they are in trouble due to Conference GPI that shows 7-3 vs an ASU team at 7-4
Richmond can't find another loss
ODU is getting in
Nova and JMU one is out
N Hampshire I see them in -

[Fear the Bird]

Towson will not win out so eliminated
Delaware will lose at least once more I say twice - eliminated - even at 8-3 they are in trouble due to Conference GPI that shows 7-3 vs an ASU team at 7-4
Richmond can't find another loss
ODU is getting in
Nova and JMU one is out
N Hampshire I see them in -

The following is a moot point as I personally have UD going 1-3 down the stretch, but if they are 8-3 with wins over any combo of what's left on their schedule, what exactly would ASU hang their hat on? Their best win would be I guess Samford?

[Go Apps]

The following is a moot point as I personally have UD going 1-3 down the stretch, but if they are 8-3 with wins over any combo of what's left on their schedule, what exactly would ASU hang their hat on? Their best win would be I guess Samford?

They hang their hat on $$$$$$$$

[Fear the Bird]

Sure but that is irrelevant in this conversation because you are comparing them to UD not to Villanova. Would ASU outbid UD? Yes, but is it enough to slide them in the playoffs with a lesser resume?

Any of the 4 remaining games on UD's schedule would trump Samford, let alone 3 of the 4.

[ITmonarch10]

They hang their hat on $$$$$$$$
Just knock off GSU and you won't have to worry about your path to the playoffs.

[Mr. C]

Not worth the conversation because Towson has no shot of 7-4. I told you in the summer but you...never...listen

What a dumb post. Is Towson one of the top 10 at-large teams at 7-4? I would say absolutely. Is Towson a very scary team in the playoffs at 7-4? Absolutely. With the two FBS losses thrown out, Towson's record to the committee would be 7-2 and the losses would be to JMU and ODU. It also isn't out of the question that a two-loss team wins the CAA auto bid.

[Mr. C]

The strength of the conference will kill CAA this year for once - the Socon is likely to steal a spot from the CAA due to the GPI - 3 tems are a lock - 4 seems unlikely the conference is too large and the powers do not play each other - sam problem in the Big Sky - I do not think we should reward large conferences who do not play each other fully - it really shows your top 3 teams if all played..

I do not like the chances of a 7-4 at large team but am starting to believe ASU may be that team if any is due to history and most importantly $$$ leading attendance is key and the Chair of the committee is our AD

If the committee was ever going to choose a 7-4 team because of money, it would have put Montana in the field two years ago. Money will not be a determining factor for a 7-4 team.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What a dumb post. Is Towson one of the top 10 at-large teams at 7-4? I would say absolutely. Is Towson a very scary team in the playoffs at 7-4? Absolutely. With the two FBS losses thrown out, Towson's record to the committee would be 7-2 and the losses would be to JMU and ODU. It also isn't out of the question that a two-loss team wins the CAA auto bid.

Towson has to win out to have either a shot at the autobid or an at-large. In doing so, they'd have to upend three championship contenders (Delaware, UNH, Villanova) in the last five weeks just to be in the conversation. But if they do, and JMU loses twice (to Villanova and ODU, which is certainly within the realm of possibility), Towson would win the autobid.

At 7-4, with what, four wins against ranked teams, I'd have to believe they'd be in. But it won't be easy.

[Mr. C]

Towson will not win out so eliminated
Delaware will lose at least once more I say twice - eliminated - even at 8-3 they are in trouble due to Conference GPI that shows 7-3 vs an ASU team at 7-4
Richmond can't find another loss
ODU is getting in
Nova and JMU one is out
N Hampshire I see them in -

The toughest of those games for Towson will be on the road Saturday against Villanova. With Towson's run defense, I would view that game as a toss-up. The key will be how Towson executes on offense. That has been the problem all year for the Tigers. Towson torched New Hampshire's defense last season and is likely to do so again. I don't see Delaware's offensive line being able to handle Towson's defense and Rhode Island is Rhode Island. If Towson wins on Saturday (a game I am looking forward to attending), I don't see any of the other teams beating the Tigers.

[Mr. C]

You guys really think if towson wins out and finishes 7-4 the won't get in? That would mean our losses would be to ODU and JMU, two top 10 teams and Kent State and LSU, two FBS schools.

I don't see any way that Towson goes 7-2 against FCS competition and doesn't get in.

[bluehenbillk]

What a dumb post. Is Towson one of the top 10 at-large teams at 7-4? I would say absolutely. Is Towson a very scary team in the playoffs at 7-4? Absolutely. With the two FBS losses thrown out, Towson's record to the committee would be 7-2 and the losses would be to JMU and ODU. It also isn't out of the question that a two-loss team wins the CAA auto bid.

Glad to see you can read Coulson. I wasn't commenting on Towson getting in or not at 7-4, I said it wasn't worth the conversation because they have no shot of realistically finishing at 7-4. Jackass.

[URMite]

If the committee was ever going to choose a 7-4 team because of money, it would have put Montana in the field two years ago. Money will not be a determining factor for a 7-4 team.

I disagree with that statement, somewhat. Did Montana have 7 Div I wins at 7-4? I think a 7-4 team (with 7 Div I wins) who brings attendance ($$$) may get more consideration than any other 4 loss (1 FBS) team...

[Mr. C]

"No shot of realistically finishing at 7-4"

Who is the donkey here?

I guarantee you that every one of the coaching staffs facing Towson will be worried about losing to the Tigers. Can't wait to see what Towson does to Delaware after last year's melodrama.

[Mr. C]

I disagree with that statement, somewhat. Did Montana have 7 Div I wins at 7-4? I think a 7-4 team (with 7 Div I wins) who brings attendance ($$$) may get more consideration than any other 4 loss (1 FBS) team...

Bids are not even opened until after the teams are selected. I base my opinion on what numerous committee members and NCAA staff have told me through the years.

[bluehenbillk]

"No shot of realistically finishing at 7-4"

Who is the donkey here?

I guarantee you that every one of the coaching staffs facing Towson will be worried about losing to the Tigers. Can't wait to see what Towson does to Delaware after last year's melodrama.

Haha, you're out of your league if you're going to go down that road. You're going to pick up the end part of the story & run with it like the two-but hack journalist you used to be when someone was dumb enough to hire you. Go ahead, pontificate about melodrama and look just uneducated. I'd do some research if I were you before replying, the two teams don't like each other very much, big deal, just another week in the CAA.

[URMite]

Open question for everyone:

How would you rank the following records?

8-3 Div II win
7-4 2 FBS losses
7-4 1 FBS loss top 10 atendance
7-4 1 FBS loss
7-4 no FBS or Div II

[Go Apps]

Sure but that is irrelevant in this conversation because you are comparing them to UD not to Villanova. Would ASU outbid UD? Yes, but is it enough to slide them in the playoffs with a lesser resume?

Any of the 4 remaining games on UD's schedule would trump Samford, let alone 3 of the 4.

The CAA is down in the GPI that has helped you in many years will finally not help you this year

[URMite]

Bids are not even opened until after the teams are selected. I base my opinion on what numerous committee members and NCAA staff have told me through the years.

Bids are not opened but historical bids and current attendance are available. I still believe it has some weight when everything else is close, just not enough to overcome an extra win.

[Go Apps]

Open question for everyone:

How would you rank the following records?

8-3 Div II win
7-4 2 FBS losses
7-4 1 FBS loss top 10 atendance
7-4 1 FBS loss
7-4 no FBS or Div II

You need to add conference GPI that will have a big piece of this

[superman7515]

Except that the GPI is not used to decide at-large bids.

[URMite]

The CAA is down in the GPI that has helped you in many years will finally not help you this year

There are reasons for not giving the CAA the benefit of the doubt this season, but I'm not sure the Dane posters would consider the GPI one of them.

[bluehenbillk]

The CAA is down in the GPI that has helped you in many years will finally not help you this year

haha, you think that means anything? Hey, for the record, I don't think UD is or will be a playoff team this year, just to get that out of the way, but the AGS Poll would be a great barometer I think we could all agree on that.

[URMite]

Except that the GPI is not used to decide at-large bids.

I'm going to come down on both sides of this. It seems the committee does not turn down receipt of the GPI when it is given to them, but they do refuse to acknowledge how or if it is used in the process.

[Mr. C]

Haha, you're out of your league if you're going to go down that road. You're going to pick up the end part of the story & run with it like the two-but hack journalist you used to be when someone was dumb enough to hire you. Go ahead, pontificate about melodrama and look just uneducated. I'd do some research if I were you before replying, the two teams don't like each other very much, big deal, just another week in the CAA.

You wouldn't know "research" if it smacked you in the head. Just love the lack of civility from some Delaware fans. Mr. Chicken would be ashamed of you. I know enough people at Towson to know they really have been looking forward to playing Delaware this season.

[Mr. C]

I'm going to come down on both sides of this. It seems the committee does not turn down receipt of the GPI when it is given to them, but they do refuse to acknowledge how or if it is used in the process.

The NCAA requests that the GPI is sent to them, just as they request the TSN and coaches polls. Having worked at CSN and TSN and having signed documents with the NCAA to agree to send them that information, I know they want the information. What they do with it when they get it is their business.

[ITmonarch10]

The CAA is down in the GPI that has helped you in many years will finally not help you this year
The CAA is being weighed down heavily this year by Georgia State and Rhode Island. However, we still favored overall as a conference in the polls. I think we get 4 teams in and only 3 teams in if Richmond chokes down the stretch. The Expanded big sky and Big South cluster at the top is what going to keep extra CAA teams out this year more so than our GPI.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Bids are not opened but historical bids and current attendance are available. I still believe it has some weight when everything else is close, just not enough to overcome an extra win.

Why do you believe this? Moreover, why do you think App has big bids? They draw well in the regular season to be sure but they can't bet on and never do have really great crowds in the playoffs to support a bid that would "wow" the committee into considering it over someone I wouldn't think.

When it comes to playoffs you can count on about 15k for App so that does not support some astronomical mind changing bid. The money argument about App is a faulty premise I think and one that I would not put a lot of stock into at all.

[HensRock]

If the committee was ever going to choose a 7-4 team because of money, it would have put Montana in the field two years ago. Money will not be a determining factor for a 7-4 team.

Two years ago Montana was 6-4, not 7-4. That's a different conversation entirely.
But I agree that money seems to have nothing to do with NCAA selection. I see no evidence to support any claim that it does.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

There's a clarification in order here. Money has nothing to do with NCAA SELECTION, and seed SELECTION. Money DOES have something to do with selection of home teams for selection of games that don't involve seeds.

But iIf there is one thing I've learned from last year's playoffs, it's: just because you pack 20,000 fans in your stadium every weekend doesn't mean that your bid is going to be one with any sort of cohones.

[URMite]

Why do you believe this? Moreover, why do you think App has big bids? They draw well in the regular season to be sure but they can't bet on and never do have really great crowds in the playoffs to support a bid that would "wow" the committee into considering it over someone I wouldn't think.

When it comes to playoffs you can count on about 15k for App so that does not support some astronomical mind changing bid. The money argument about App is a faulty premise I think and one that I would not put a lot of stock into at all.

I wasn't specifically talking about ASU. The ASU poster said money matters, MR C. pointed out that Montana not getting in with a DIV I record of 6-4 proved that it didn't. I simply wanted to state I don't think that it does prove that point. Truth is it is hard to isolate support from team quality. Often an 8-3 team with 18,000 attendance actually is slightly better than an 8-3 with 2,500 attendance.

I just believe that if two teams with identical records that are disputed as number 20 & 21 that if one team has much greater attendance they will get in more than 50% of the time.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I wasn't specifically talking about ASU. The ASU poster said money matters, MR C. pointed out that Montana not getting in with a DIV I record of 6-4 proved that it didn't. I simply wanted to state I don't think that it does prove that point. Truth is it is hard to isolate support from team quality. Often an 8-3 team with 18,000 attendance actually is slightly better than an 8-3 with 2,500 attendance.

I just believe that if two teams with identical records that are disputed as number 20 & 21 that if one team has much greater attendance they will get in more than 50% of the time.

Can't argue with that. I knew it was Go Apps saying the $$$ thing but thought you were backing that play but if not then my mistake.

[URMite]

Can't argue with that. I knew it was Go Apps saying the $$$ thing but thought you were backing that play but if not then my mistake.

Nope, I think he is emphasising both points too much. The commitee seems to often devalue conference strength (GPI) on the last bid or two. They have chosen an OVC, MEAC or PL team that no one was expecting. I'm not sure that Montana, Delaware, ASU, JMU, ODU, NDSU, or GSU have been the last team in or out to test the attendance theory. But you do still have to wonder if it is ever in the back of someone's mind because of how tight the budgets are for both the FCS and the playoffs.

[WrenFGun]

If the committee was ever going to choose a 7-4 team because of money, it would have put Montana in the field two years ago. Money will not be a determining factor for a 7-4 team.

I don't think this is a fair point. Montana didn't have 7 DI wins like App. State will have.

[atlfcsfan]

I know CAA doesnt want to say it matters, but I would be very scared of a 7-4 App getting in over a couple of CAA teams. App does mean $$$, and $$$$ can be translated several ways.

1. Its a given they will bid higher than most squads, whether sealed or not.
2. They have tradition and 3 National Championships
3. and this is a big part of it, out of most casual football fans, App is a known brand. The name means a lot. When ESPN broadcasts those games, who you think ESPN is going to want to broadcast? And the FCS has to make sure it can trot out the best possible product they can. And App is an appealing and viable product to the casual football fan.
4. CAA will get 3 for sure, SoCon not counting App, would only have 2. So the justification could be they would want to take a 3rd place App over a 4th place CAA team.

[VUCats02]

I know CAA doesnt want to say it matters, but I would be very scared of a 7-4 App getting in over a couple of CAA teams. App does mean $$$, and $$$$ can be translated several ways.

1. Its a given they will bid higher than most squads, whether sealed or not.
2. They have tradition and 3 National Championships
3. and this is a big part of it, out of most casual football fans, App is a known brand. The name means a lot. When ESPN broadcasts those games, who you think ESPN is going to want to broadcast? And the FCS has to make sure it can trot out the best possible product they can. And App is an appealing and viable product to the casual football fan.
4. CAA will get 3 for sure, SoCon not counting App, would only have 2. So the justification could be they would want to take a 3rd place App over a 4th place CAA team.

I don't think this whole "App State argument" is a very good one. You want to look at tradition and history? How about we look at the last 2 years of playoffs in the FCS? In case people have forgotten, App State has lost by a total of 40 points in 2 games against 2 CAA opponents in the last 2 playoff years. That is not a typo. 40 points.

And teams like Richmond, Villanova, and JMU (all recent national championship teams, with JMU drawing just about as much fan-wise as App State) do not have the tradition? It is also a possibility that schools like UNH, Richmond, and Nova could bid high even though they don't nearly draw as many fans as App State, but just take a loss and bid high anyways. Not buying the "App will steal a CAA spot because of their name" argument.

[atlfcsfan]

I don't think this whole "App State argument" is a very good one. You want to look at tradition and history? How about we look at the last 2 years of playoffs in the FCS? In case people have forgotten, App State has lost by a total of 40 points in 2 games against 2 CAA opponents in the last 2 playoff years. That is not a typo. 40 points.

And teams like Richmond, Villanova, and JMU (all recent national championship teams, with JMU drawing just about as much fan-wise as App State) do not have the tradition? It is also a possibility that schools like UNH, Richmond, and Nova could bid high even though they don't nearly draw as many fans as App State, but just take a loss and bid high anyways. Not buying the "App will steal a CAA spot because of their name" argument.


Sure, your reasons for taking a 4th CAA team over App are valid points and they make legitimate sense. CAA has owned App in the playoffs the last couple of times they met, but you can believe it or not, its about $$$$. While I dont think they would steal a birth from lets say an 8-3 JMU or 8-3 Delaware, some of the teams that dont have a real following might have a problem.

So quick question. lets say App is 7-4 and ODU is 8-3 who gets in?

[GannonFan]

Sure, your reasons for taking a 4th CAA team over App are valid points and they make legitimate sense. CAA has owned App in the playoffs the last couple of times they met, but you can believe it or not, its about $$$$. While I dont think they would steal a birth from lets say an 8-3 JMU or 8-3 Delaware, some of the teams that dont have a real following might have a problem.

So quick question. lets say App is 7-4 and ODU is 8-3 who gets in?

ODU gets in at 8-3 - no doubt. An 8-3 team from a power conference will always get in over a 7-4 team from another power conference.

[HensRock]

lets say App is 7-4 and ODU is 8-3 who gets in?

You might want to pick a different CAA for your example. ODU has a quite large and avid fanbase.

BTW, I've looked for evidence of $$$ making a difference in At-Large selection and found none in the past. $$ comes in to play in Pairings where they assign seeds and determine home games, not in the selection criteria. I think the committee actually does a good job. I certainly wouldn't want it.

[VUCats02]

Sure, your reasons for taking a 4th CAA team over App are valid points and they make legitimate sense. CAA has owned App in the playoffs the last couple of times they met, but you can believe it or not, its about $$$$. While I dont think they would steal a birth from lets say an 8-3 JMU or 8-3 Delaware, some of the teams that dont have a real following might have a problem.

So quick question. lets say App is 7-4 and ODU is 8-3 who gets in?

Just make it more vague. App is 7-4 and "insert CAA team here" is 8-3. "Insert CAA team here" will always get in over App in that case assuming all 8 wins are against FCS teams.

[GannonFan]

Just make it more vague. App is 7-4 and "insert CAA team here" is 8-3. "Insert CAA team here" will always get in over App in that case assuming all 8 wins are against FCS teams.

An 8-3 UD team is a lock for the playoffs, even with the West Chester win on the schedule. UD was a lock at 8-3 back when the playoffs were only 16 teams, with it expanded it's even more sure.

[atlfcsfan]

I used ODU not because of the fan base, was citing ways that 7-4 App might get in over an 8-3 CAA team. ODU is going FBS, right? App is more apt to get picked in that instance simply because they arent worried about any backlash from ODU.

I think because their seems to be so many quality playoff teams out there, If the CAA has several 8-3 and 7-4 teams, they might cancel each other out and the Committee might consider taking a 3rd so con or even a 3rd MVC team. I think the Big Sky the way the schedules are set up, are almost guaranteed to get 4 teams in. I think they could have 4 teams with 9 wins or more. Would the committee want to give 4 slots to Big Sky and CAA both? and slight the So con or MVC with 2? Or maybe only give Ohio Valley 1 bid?

[VUCats02]

I used ODU not because of the fan base, was citing ways that 7-4 App might get in over an 8-3 CAA team. ODU is going FBS, right? App is more apt to get picked in that instance simply because they arent worried about any backlash from ODU.

I think because their seems to be so many quality playoff teams out there, If the CAA has several 8-3 and 7-4 teams, they might cancel each other out and the Committee might consider taking a 3rd so con or even a 3rd MVC team. I think the Big Sky the way the schedules are set up, are almost guaranteed to get 4 teams in. I think they could have 4 teams with 9 wins or more. Would the committee want to give 4 slots to Big Sky and CAA both? and slight the So con or MVC with 2? Or maybe only give Ohio Valley 1 bid?

I can assure you that ODU will not be selected because the committee will be thinking they won't get backlash because ODU is leaving the division. That's just crazy!

[atlfcsfan]

An 8-3 UD team is a lock for the playoffs, even with the West Chester win on the schedule. UD was a lock at 8-3 back when the playoffs were only 16 teams, with it expanded it's even more sure.

Would they be even more lock over a 7-4 App? Both would have 7 Div 1 wins? What would be the tiebreaker between 8-3 Delaware and 7-4 App if the last slot came down to thpse twp?

[VUCats02]

An 8-3 UD team is a lock for the playoffs, even with the West Chester win on the schedule. UD was a lock at 8-3 back when the playoffs were only 16 teams, with it expanded it's even more sure.


I didn't say they weren't a lock. I was just trying to even the basis of comparison.

[GannonFan]

Would they be even more lock over a 7-4 App? Both would have 7 Div 1 wins? What would be the tiebreaker between 8-3 Delaware and 7-4 App if the last slot came down to thpse twp?

There is no tie to be broken. UD would be 7-3 in DI games - Appy would be 7-4 in DI games. That's the difference. There's no tie to break based on winning percentage. A UD team that is 8-3 will have wins over 3 of the 4 of ODU, Towson, Richmond, and nova. Granted, I wouldn't put money on the odds of UD being able to do that as I don't think we're making the playoffs, but if it did happen we're a mortal lock to make the playoffs at 8-3. Appy at 7-4 would have to beat someone else out for the spot because they wouldn't beat out an 8-3 UD.

[URMite]

An 8-3 UD team is a lock for the playoffs, even with the West Chester win on the schedule. UD was a lock at 8-3 back when the playoffs were only 16 teams, with it expanded it's even more sure.

Would an 8-3 UD team get in before an 8-3 (all Div I schedule) team from the Socon, Big Sky, or MVFC?

[Fear the Bird]

Would an 8-3 UD team get in before an 8-3 (all Div I schedule) team from the Socon, Big Sky, or MVFC?

Yes GannonFan has been making the point I have tried to make - you have to remember that an 8-3 UD team would end the season with AT WORST, wins over Towson, @UR, Nova, which would trump just about any combination of 8-3 teams out there.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

It's up to the members of the committee to choose the teams, and they'll choose the teams based on which teams they perceive to be most worthy. Strength of schedule does play a part, but this whole "what if App and/or ODU were the last team in" is pretty much a silly discussion point, especially in the era of 20 teams. Since expansion, the last team in has been along the lines of "a 7-4 Maine team vs. an 8-3 Liberty team" with the power conference team always winning the argument, and when given an opportunity to fudge the rules to put a 7-4, 6 D-I team in (and this happened twice, with both Delaware and Montana), the committee didn't budge. And Liberty would not only pack the house for a home playoff game, I'm very convinced they would put in an extremely large bid, too, so the fact that they're on the outside looking in to a team like, say, Maine, is further proof that the committee is unbiased in favor of $$$.

[atlfcsfan]

There is no tie to be broken. UD would be 7-3 in DI games - Appy would be 7-4 in DI games. That's the difference. There's no tie to break based on winning percentage. A UD team that is 8-3 will have wins over 3 of the 4 of ODU, Towson, Richmond, and nova. Granted, I wouldn't put money on the odds of UD being able to do that as I don't think we're making the playoffs, but if it did happen we're a mortal lock to make the playoffs at 8-3. Appy at 7-4 would have to beat someone else out for the spot because they wouldn't beat out an 8-3 UD.


App and Delaware would both be 7-3 VS FCS Both would have 3 conference losses, both would have 1 bad loss (Citadel and Maine, respectively). So actually things are a lot similar.

The difference: App played and loss to a FBS team, Delaware played and beat a Div 2 school

App would be 3rd in So Con, If Delaware is 8-3 and 4th in CAA would hurt their chances, I think.

[Fear the Bird]

It's up to the members of the committee to choose the teams, and they'll choose the teams based on which teams they perceive to be most worthy. Strength of schedule does play a part, but this whole "what if App and/or ODU were the last team in" is pretty much a silly discussion point, especially in the era of 20 teams. Since expansion, the last team in has been along the lines of "a 7-4 Maine team vs. an 8-3 Liberty team" with the power conference team always winning the argument, and when given an opportunity to fudge the rules to put a 7-4, 6 D-I team in (and this happened twice, with both Delaware and Montana), the committee didn't budge. And Liberty would not only pack the house for a home playoff game, I'm very convinced they would put in an extremely large bid, too, so the fact that they're on the outside looking in to a team like, say, Maine, is further proof that the committee is unbiased in favor of $$$.

I guess you slept through selection Sunday last year when the committee went with EKU?

[GannonFan]

App and Delaware would both be 7-3 VS FCS Both would have 3 conference losses, both would have 1 bad loss (Citadel and Maine, respectively). So actually things are a lot similar.

The difference: App played and loss to a FBS team, Delaware played and beat a Div 2 school

App would be 3rd in So Con, If Delaware is 8-3 and 4th in CAA would hurt their chances, I think.

Hey, if it makes you sleep at night then by all means keep believing, but it doesn't change the fact that UD is a lock to make it at 8-3. Like I said, most UD guys don't think we'll even get to be 8-3 but rest assured, if we do we'll play after Thanksgiving.

[bluehenbillk]

I'll be happier than a pig in *hit if Delaware ends up 8-3 but I just don't think based on the work they've put forth so far this season it will happen. It'll be great if it does, but I'm not keeping my post-Thanksgiving weekends clear...

[URMite]

I guess you slept through selection Sunday last year when the committee went with EKU?

But does the committee think of the OVC and Southland as power conferences?

[URMite]

What I'm wondering is has a 7-4 team gotten in over an 8 Div I win team from the CAA, Socon, MFVC, Big Sky, OVC, or Southland?

[Fear the Bird]

But does the committee think of the OVC and Southland as power conferences?

I sure hope not

[superman7515]

I guarantee you that every one of the coaching staffs facing Towson will be worried about losing to the Tigers.

And they should be now that they know Towson has been violating NCAA practice rules, haha.

[atlfcsfan]

What I'm wondering is has a 7-4 team gotten in over an 8 Div I win team from the CAA, Socon, MFVC, Big Sky, OVC, or Southland?

I doubt it has happen before. This is an unusual year, not a lot of great teams, lots of good teams and lots of bad teams. I dont think a 7 win team would get in over a CAA team with 8 Div 1 wins, but Delaware cant get 8 Div 1 wins and then there is the special exception of Old Dominion who is leaving, If they are 8-3 could they get bypassed since they are moving up?

[ITmonarch10]

I doubt it has happen before. This is an unusual year, not a lot of great teams, lots of good teams and lots of bad teams. I dont think a 7 win team would get in over a CAA team with 8 Div 1 wins, but Delaware cant get 8 Div 1 wins and then there is the special exception of Old Dominion who is leaving, If they are 8-3 could they get bypassed since they are moving up?

That would be kinda retarded considering the only reason we didn't move up this year was to get 1 more shot at the title and to get recruiting right so we don't end up like GaState or UMASS.

[danefan]

That would be kinda retarded considering the only reason we didn't move up this year was to get 1 more shot at the title and to get recruiting right so we don't end up like GaState or UMASS.

I really hope the committee doesn't informally punish ODU for moving up. The NCAA sets the standards for eligibility and ODU is eligible. They should get the same review as any other at-large team.

[HensRock]

App and Delaware would both be 7-3 VS FCS Both would have 3 conference losses, both would have 1 bad loss (Citadel and Maine, respectively). So actually things are a lot similar.

The difference: App played and loss to a FBS team, Delaware played and beat a Div 2 school

App would be 3rd in So Con, If Delaware is 8-3 and 4th in CAA would hurt their chances, I think.

Difference is the FBS loss counts. The Div-II win does not.
7-3 > 7-4.

But I do think an 8-3 App is in over a 7-4 Towson - especially considering how each team would have finished the season. 8-3 means App would have finished strong. 7-4 Towson finished weak.

8-2 Delaware means UD would have lost one of it's last 4 games. So I think the case between 8-3 ASU and 8-2 UD is very close. Hopefully, they would BOTH go.
Between 7-4 ASU and 7-3 UD, ... that's a tough one.

A lot of potential playoff teams need to play each other yet, so there are some losses on the horizon which need to be dealt out. I Have a feeling things will work themselves out.

[HensRock]

Would an 8-3 UD team get in before an 8-3 (all Div I schedule) team from the Socon, Big Sky, or MVFC?

No. 7-3 UD will not get in over 8-3 team from power conf.
But a 7-3 UD might be the last one in.

[Fear the Bird]

Difference is the FBS loss counts. The Div-II win does not.
7-3 > 7-4.

But I do think an 8-3 App is in over a 7-4 Towson - especially considering how each team would have finished the season. 8-3 means App would have finished strong. 7-4 Towson finished weak.

8-2 Delaware means UD would have lost one of it's last 4 games. So I think the case between 8-3 ASU and 8-2 UD is very close. Hopefully, they would BOTH go.
Between 7-4 ASU and 7-3 UD, ... that's a tough one.

A lot of potential playoff teams need to play each other yet, so there are some losses on the horizon which need to be dealt out. I Have a feeling things will work themselves out.

A 7-4 Towson would have won it's last 4 games, so that's not finishing weak

And an 8-2 UD would have won it's last 4 games, possibly be in contention for the CAA title and a first round bye

[URMite]

I doubt it has happen before. This is an unusual year, not a lot of great teams, lots of good teams and lots of bad teams. I dont think a 7 win team would get in over a CAA team with 8 Div 1 wins, but Delaware cant get 8 Div 1 wins and then there is the special exception of Old Dominion who is leaving, If they are 8-3 could they get bypassed since they are moving up?

If an 8-3 ODU gets left out it isn't because they are moving up, it would be because of SOS (ie no FBS, and ie GPI).

[melloware13]

Team - Remaining Games - Needed Record (if possible to reach 7 D-I wins)
Old Dominion - @GSU, W&M, @JMU - 0-3 or better
New Hampshire - W&M, Towson - 0-2 or better
James Madison - @Maine, @Nova, ODU - 1-2 or better
Villanova - JMU, @Del - 1-1 or 2-0
Richmond - URI, Del, @W&M - 2-1 or 3-0
Delaware - Towson, @Rich, Nova - 3-0
Towson - @Del, URI, @UNH - 3-0
Maine - JMU, GSU, @URI - Out
William & Mary - @UNH, @ODU, Rich - Out
Rhode Island - @Rich, @Towson, Maine - Out
Georgia State - ODU, @Maine - Ineligible

Story-lines for week 10:
- ODU and UNH have hit the magic number, both have favorable situations to get to 8+ D-I wins
- Towson@UD is the next elimination game
- Setting up for end of season rivalries to either be elimination games (possibly Nova@UD) or spoiler situations (Rich@W&M)

My Playoff teams: ODU, UNH, JMU, One of (Nova, Rich, Towson, UD)

[melloware13]

Team - Remaining Games - Needed Record (if possible to reach 8 D-I wins)
Old Dominion - W&M, @JMU - CLINCHED 8
New Hampshire - Towson - CLINCHED 8
James Madison - @Nova, ODU - 1-1 or better
Villanova - JMU, @Del - 2-0
Richmond - Del, @W&M - 2-0
Towson - URI, @UNH - Must go 2-0 for Auto-bid Only
Delaware - @Rich, Nova - Out
Maine - GSU, @URI - Out
William & Mary - @ODU, Rich - Out
Rhode Island - @Towson, Maine - Out
Georgia State - @Maine - Ineligible

Updated Scenarios: UNH and ODU reached 8 D-I wins, assume should be in.....Delaware now has opportunity to be spoiler in remaining 2 games.....If UNH beats Towson AND JMU wins out, JMU gets Auto-bid.....If UNH beats Towson and JMU goes 1-1 or worse, UNH gets Auto-bid.....If Towson beats UNH, Richmond AND Nova win out, AND JMU beats ODU, Towson wins Auto-bid (assuming win over URI)

My Playoff Picks: UNH, ODU, Richmond, Winner of JMU @ Nova