THE FCS STACK

[rich]

THE FCS STACK (http://www.thefightinhens.com/2012/10/17/fcs-stack-week-8/)

It does look bleak for my Fightin Blue Hens of Delaware of making this year's playoffs ... but at least I could provide a new look on how the FCS playoff picture could play out for all others ...

17033 (http://www.thefightinhens.com/)

[MSUBobcat]

"Punched Ticket to FCS Playoffs (2):

Tennessee State
Lehigh" http://www.thefightinhens.com/2012/10/17/fcs-stack-week-8/

Me thinks you don't understand how FCS playoffs work. 7 FCS wins doesn't mean you are in the playoffs. In fact there is a whole thread predicting that NOT ONE 7 win team will make the playoffs.

In addition, you have Harvard as your #4 team to make the playoffs and Alabama A&M as #10. Neither school accepts invitations to the FCS playoffs.

The conference rankings are also interesting - BSC at #7 behind OVC, Ivy and PL??? Whatever drugs you are on, please share. I, too, want to be swept into a magical fantasy land.

[HailSzczur]

If I'm looking at these standings right, you're punishing teams that have FBS wins? xeyebrowx

[Fear the Bird]

It was a good effort for a first post and maybe the formulas will work out come Selection Sunday, but as MSU states above, if you think Lehigh and Tennessee State can lose out and still make playoffs (which tickets punched suggests), that couldn't be further from the truth.

[MSUBobcat]

If I'm looking at these standings right, you're punishing teams that have FBS wins? xeyebrowx

Of course. The committee is only taking teams w/ 7 FCS wins. They couldn't care less about FBS. In fact, 7 is the magical number. More than that gets you disqualified for having an unfair advantage over the other teams.

"7 FCS Wins will get your ticket punched to the playoffs big dance."

[rich]

How many 7-FCS-WIN teams DO NOT make the playoffs?

Yes, I will adjust how to factor in FBS wins and FCS wins together ...

[WrenFGun]

How many 7-FCS-WIN teams DO NOT make the playoffs?

Yes, I will adjust how to factor in FBS wins and FCS wins together ...

Generally regularly from non-power conferences. There will be some from power conferences this year that miss.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

How many 7-FCS-WIN teams DO NOT make the playoffs?

Yes, I will adjust how to factor in FBS wins and FCS wins together ...

Well it depends on the year of course but this year you are gonna see some sitting home it certainly looks like due to the good football records being played in power conferences.

A good effort as fear said but you've got some serious kinks in this with the BSC rating I think. I don't think there is another conference with more FBS wins than the BSC this year. Although FBS losses don't hurt a good team that at least reaches the 7 D1 level they sure are a cherry on top with the comittee. Also, a team on a streak of wins at the end of the year will be valued more than one that has several losses in the last four or five games even when they may have identical records...ceteris paribus and all that.

[van]

no at large with less than 8 wins this year, count on it!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

no at large with less than 8 wins this year, count on it!

If I was a bettin' man that bet would certainly have my undivided attention.

[MSUBobcat]

Generally regularly from non-power conferences. There will be some from power conferences this year that miss.

Exactly.

Rich, 7 FCS wins is considered the bare minimum, as no team with less has ever been selected to the playoffs. Your table is very helpful summarizing where each team is sitting and will be useful in the coming weeks as people start doing threads on which teams are eliminated from contention. What I would do is move all SWAC and Ivy teams either to the bottom of the list or off completely because they will never participate, then move the red line down to where teams cannot reach the 7-win minimum, but that will involve some considerable work in looking at all those remaining schedules. Having it at 20 is misleading because it there are no MEAC or Southland teams above the line, but they are auto-bid conferences.

[bluehenbillk]

How many 7-FCS-WIN teams DO NOT make the playoffs?

Yes, I will adjust how to factor in FBS wins and FCS wins together ...

This year, almost all of them, unless they win their league. If you're 8-3 from a decent league (CAA, MVFC, SoCon, BigSky, Southland, OVC) you're going to be in. 7-4 just puts you on the bubble.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Exactly.

Rich, 7 FCS wins is considered the bare minimum, as no team with less has ever been selected to the playoffs. Your table is very helpful summarizing where each team is sitting and will be useful in the coming weeks as people start doing threads on which teams are eliminated from contention. What I would do is move all SWAC and Ivy teams either to the bottom of the list or off completely because they will never participate, then move the red line down to where teams cannot reach the 7-win minimum, but that will involve some considerable work in looking at all those remaining schedules. Having it at 20 is misleading because it there are no MEAC or Southland teams above the line, but they are auto-bid conferences.

Yeah you'd be better to project the auto bid conference winners and then use those outside of that group, The Ivies, and the SWAC as your population.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Unless there are 3 teams in the SWAC that have an 9-3 record or better anyway...

[MSUBobcat]

Yeah you'd be better to project the auto bid conference winners and then use those outside of that group, The Ivies, and the SWAC as your population.

At this point in the year, there is still tons of work (too much for me anyway) to make a list encompassing all teams that still have playoff aspirations. We need a few teams with outside chances of winning their conferences to lose to clear things up a bit.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

At this point in the year, there is still tons of work (too much for me anyway) to make a list encompassing all teams that still have playoff aspirations. We need a few teams with outside chances of winning their conferences to lose to clear things up a bit.

Sure, but if you are gonna take this task on then that would be a way of achieving a more accurate picture. If using a spreadsheet it shouldn't be too tough to slide a new likely candidate into the auto bid slot and move the old one back into the population as an at large.

[Engineer86]

It was a good effort for a first post and maybe the formulas will work out come Selection Sunday, but as MSU states above, if you think Lehigh and Tennessee State can lose out and still make playoffs (which tickets punched suggests), that couldn't be further from the truth.

I think there is a risk that Lehigh could "lose (and be) out" of the playoffs. xlolx Actually, with one loss they are probably better than 50/50, but two losses and I am very concerned if the committee considers margin of victory/ performance.

[M Ruler]

Can Albany really win the NEC with a win over Sacred Heart next week???

FCS Stack indicates they can punch their ticket against SHU. I didnt realize they could already.

Go Danes

[Engineer86]

Can Albany really win the NEC with a win over Sacred Heart next week???

FCS Stack indicates they can punch their ticket against SHU. I didnt realize they could already.

Go Danes

Nope.

[rich]

I will look into highlighting teams that are leading their divisions, so Conf-auto-berths can be projected. But moving auto-berth teams up ahead of teams with more wins is not an option. Conference rankings are based on the Stack rankings.

Also, schools like Harvard (Ivy) will remain where they are in THE FCS STACK, but I will look into highlighting these schools as well to show that they WOULD make the playoffs if their conf would allow.

THE FCS STACK will show at the end of the regular season the TOP FCS schools with FBS/FCS WINS, not be a perfect picture of the FCS Playoffs.

[rich]

Can Albany really win the NEC with a win over Sacred Heart next week???

FCS Stack indicates they can punch their ticket against SHU. I didnt realize they could already.

Go Danes

It just means they will get 7 FCS WINS, not win their conference.

[danefan]

It just means they will get 7 FCS WINS, not win their conference.

I know someone already mentioned this and I'm not trying to pile on, but Albany is a great example of a team that is a lock to not make the playoffs despite having 7 wins unless we win the AQ out of the NEC.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I will look into highlighting teams that are leading their divisions, so Conf-auto-berths can be projected. But moving auto-berth teams up ahead of teams with more wins is not an option. Conference rankings are based on the Stack rankings.

Also, schools like Harvard (Ivy) will remain where they are in THE FCS STACK, but I will look into highlighting these schools as well to show that they WOULD make the playoffs if their conf would allow.

THE FCS STACK will show at the end of the regular season the TOP FCS schools with FBS/FCS WINS, not be a perfect picture of the FCS Playoffs.

Ahh, I get ya. For some reason I thought it's objective was playoffs and with a different objective than that then maybe it would be just as easy to take out any sort of playoff elements and auto bid stuff and so forth?

It's pretty cool man, thanks for the effort.xthumbsupx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I know someone already mentioned this and I'm not trying to pile on, but Albany is a great example of a team that is a lock to not make the playoffs despite having 7 wins unless we win the AQ out of the NEC.

Should have checked the second page but that is a prime example of why maybe the objective of the thing should massaged to not be sort of intimating who is or is not in the playoffs and just go with leaving that sort of verbage out.

That's where my confusion came from with the objective of it in the first place.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

If nothing else, looks like you put a lot of time and effort into this Rich. Gotta give you some respect for that... Nice work!

[UNIFanSince1983]

Good effort. It seems sort of like one of the other computer rankings that are already out there, but I cannot remember which one.

Funny to look that we are 1-5, but are actually +20 in point differential.

I also like the font you use in the header. Would like to know what it is called.

[MSUBobcat]

I will look into highlighting teams that are leading their divisions, so Conf-auto-berths can be projected. But moving auto-berth teams up ahead of teams with more wins is not an option. Conference rankings are based on the Stack rankings.

Also, schools like Harvard (Ivy) will remain where they are in THE FCS STACK, but I will look into highlighting these schools as well to show that they WOULD make the playoffs if their conf would allow.

THE FCS STACK will show at the end of the regular season the TOP FCS schools with FBS/FCS WINS, not be a perfect picture of the FCS Playoffs.

Not saying you should move them up per se, but other leagues sometimes don't have an AQ in the top 20, which reduces the number of spots available for top 20 teams. May or may not be the case this year, but it does happen.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Well, one thing that is clear is that this line of thinking is what has some in JMU la la land thinking that the CAA will get 5 teams in this year again. At this point in the season, looking around the country, I feel like they are smoking crack, but a second closer look shows that my delusional fellow Dukes may be onto something.

Why? Discounting D2 wins. Secondarily, this version also discounts FBS wins for conference rankings. I think once that gets factored back in, we will see that the CAA falls back a bit and the Big Sky moves up a bit in the rankings.

Interesting point of view on the statistical analysis of Ws and Ls and playoff implications.

[Seawolf97]

I know someone already mentioned this and I'm not trying to pile on, but Albany is a great example of a team that is a lock to not make the playoffs despite having 7 wins unless we win the AQ out of the NEC.

You are not alone. If we trip up in the Big South and dont win out the conference we are a big maybe for an at large bid.