Playoff Scenario: Who gets in???

[MTfan4life]

Taking a look behind the scenes look into playoff projections for the week, I noticed a large amount of potential at-large candidates. So, I projected final records based off Massey's game-by-game predictions and came up with this result:

Auto bids:
Eastern Washington
Stony Brook
Villanova
Bethune Cookman
North Dakota State
Albany
Eastern Kentucky
Lehigh
Georgia Southern
Central Arkansas

At large 7 win threshold teams (FBS games are in parentheses):
Old Dominion - 8-3
James Madison - 9-2 (loss to West Virginia)
New Hampshire - 9-2 (loss to Minnesota)
Colgate - 7-4
Youngstown State - 7-4 (win over Pittsburgh)
Illinois State - 7-4 (win over Eastern Michigan)
Indiana State - 8-2 (loss to Indiana)
South Dakota State - 9-2 (loss to Kansas)
Sam Houston State - 7-3 (losses to Baylor & Texas A&M)
McNeese State - 7-3 (win over Middle Tennessee State)
Montana State - 9-1
Cal Poly - 10-1 (win over Wyoming)
Northern Arizona - 8-2 (loss to Arizona State, win over UNLV)
Applachian State - 8-3 (loss to East Carolina)
Wofford - 7-3 (loss to South Carolina)
Citadel - 7-4 (loss to North Carolina State)
Coastal Carolina - 7-4 (loss to Toledo)
Morgan State - 7-4 (losses to Buffalo & Akron)
Monmouth - 8-3
Tennesse State - 8-3
Tennessee Martin - 9-2 (win over Memphis, loss to Northern Illinois)

Out of those 21 teams, only 10 of them will be able to receive an at-large berth. Yes, this is all hypothetical as anything can happen on "any given saturday," but if the 'favorites' win out, it leaves a lot of 7-win teams.

My question is, if you were the committee, which ten teams would you choose?

[danefan]

Locks:
Old Dominion - 8-3
James Madison - 9-2 (loss to West Virginia)
New Hampshire - 9-2 (loss to Minnesota)
Indiana State - 8-2 (loss to Indiana)
South Dakota State - 9-2 (loss to Kansas)
Montana State - 9-1
Cal Poly - 10-1 (win over Wyoming)
Northern Arizona - 8-2 (loss to Arizona State, win over UNLV)
Applachian State - 8-3 (loss to East Carolina)

Bubble for last spot:
Youngstown State - 7-4 (win over Pittsburgh)
Illinois State - 7-4 (win over Eastern Michigan)
Sam Houston State - 7-3 (losses to Baylor & Texas A&M)
McNeese State - 7-3 (win over Middle Tennessee State)
Wofford - 7-3 (loss to South Carolina)
Citadel - 7-4 (loss to North Carolina State)
Tennesse State - 8-3
Tennessee Martin - 9-2 (win over Memphis, loss to Northern Illinois)

Colgate, Coastal, Morgan and Monmouth are out from the get go.

I think it comes down YSU, Illinois State, Wofford and the Citadel. Depends on who their other losses are to. I cannot see a 7-win team from the MVFC or Socon being left behind for a 7 or 8 win team from the SLC or OVC.

Tons of good Big Sky teams this year.

[HailSzczur]

Let me get out my dart board and I'll let you know what I come up with.

Wow Nova is projected to take the CAA autobid? I think we get in as an at large, JMU is going to take the CAA IMO

[Twentysix]

Taking a look behind the scenes look into playoff projections for the week, I noticed a large amount of potential at-large candidates. So, I projected final records based off Massey's game-by-game predictions and came up with this result:

Auto bids:
Eastern Washington
Stony Brook
Villanova
Bethune Cookman
North Dakota State
Albany
Eastern Kentucky
Lehigh
Georgia Southern
Central Arkansas

At large 7 win threshold teams (FBS games are in parentheses):
Old Dominion - 8-3
James Madison - 9-2 (loss to West Virginia)
New Hampshire - 9-2 (loss to Minnesota)
Colgate - 7-4
Youngstown State - 7-4 (win over Pittsburgh)
Illinois State - 7-4 (win over Eastern Michigan)
Indiana State - 8-2 (loss to Indiana)
South Dakota State - 9-2 (loss to Kansas)
Sam Houston State - 7-3 (losses to Baylor & Texas A&M)
McNeese State - 7-3 (win over Middle Tennessee State)
Montana State - 9-1
Cal Poly - 10-1 (win over Wyoming)
Northern Arizona - 8-2 (loss to Arizona State, win over UNLV)
Applachian State - 8-3 (loss to East Carolina)
Wofford - 7-3 (loss to South Carolina)
Citadel - 7-4 (loss to North Carolina State)
Coastal Carolina - 7-4 (loss to Toledo)
Morgan State - 7-4 (losses to Buffalo & Akron)
Monmouth - 8-3
Tennesse State - 8-3
Tennessee Martin - 9-2 (win over Memphis, loss to Northern Illinois)

Out of those 21 teams, only 10 of them will be able to receive an at-large berth. Yes, this is all hypothetical as anything can happen on "any given saturday," but if the 'favorites' win out, it leaves a lot of 7-win teams.

My question is, if you were the committee, which ten teams would you choose?

My guess

4 CAA
4 BSC 1 seed(EWU), 4 seed (SLO)
3 MVFC 2 seed(NDSU), 5 seed (SDSU)
2 Socon 3 seed (GSU)
2 OVC

The rest only get the autobid. Using the predicted W/L

[danefan]

My guess

4 CAA
4 BSC 1 seed, 4 seed
3 MVFC 2 seed, 5 seed
2 Socon 3 seed
2 OVC

The rest only get the autobid.

So you'd take a 2nd OVC team over either of the two 7-win teams from the MVFC with FBS wins?

Anyone know if a team from the CAA, Socon, MVFC or Big Sky conferences with 7 DI wins and an FBS win has ever not made the playoffs?

[Twentysix]

So you'd take a 2nd OVC team over either of the two 7-win teams from the MVFC with FBS wins?

Anyone know if a team from the CAA, Socon, MVFC or Big Sky conferences with 7 DI wins and an FBS win has ever not made the playoffs?

I wouldn't but the committee will. I thought thats what we were doing :p

I think the 7 win MVFC teams would blow Tenn Martin up. But, I bet in this situation the committe gives the OVC 2.

[Professor Chaos]

Locks:
Old Dominion - 8-3
James Madison - 9-2 (loss to West Virginia)
New Hampshire - 9-2 (loss to Minnesota)
Indiana State - 8-2 (loss to Indiana)
South Dakota State - 9-2 (loss to Kansas)
Montana State - 9-1
Cal Poly - 10-1 (win over Wyoming)
Northern Arizona - 8-2 (loss to Arizona State, win over UNLV)
Applachian State - 8-3 (loss to East Carolina)

Agree with these 9. I think the last spot goes to Sam Houston in that scenario.

[danefan]

I wouldn't but the committee will.

I'm not so sure.

By the way, this is exactly the type of year that every major conference fan should look at and thank the NEC and Big South for forcing the NCAA's hand to expand the playoffs. If the field is 16 this year there would be a few national title contender teams sitting at home on Thanksgiving.

[RabidRabbit]

My guess

4 CAA
4 BSC 1 seed(EWU), 4 seed (SLO)
3 MVFC 2 seed(NDSU), 5 seed (SDSU)
2 Socon 3 seed (GSU)
2 OVC

The rest only get the autobid. Using the predicted W/L

Note that the only way that the MVFC teams end up like this are for the NDSU/SDSU/ISU-B to be co-champs, with 1 loss, round-robined on each other.

BTW, I like, and believe that the seeds are likely correct also.

[tingly]

I'll take danefan's locks. I'd put in an 8-3 YSU that beat Indiana State. Otherwise, I'd have to think too hard to pick the last spot.

[RabidRabbit]

So you'd take a 2nd OVC team over either of the two 7-win teams from the MVFC with FBS wins?

Anyone know if a team from the CAA, Socon, MVFC or Big Sky conferences with 7 DI wins and an FBS win has ever not made the playoffs?

Note that the OVC co-champ selected also has a FBS win and only OVC loss would be to the auto-bid team. So yes, 2nd OVC vs a 2 loss in MVFC conference (which under scenerio used is a tie for 2nd or 4th (3way tie at top) + FBS winner.

[Nova09]

Let me get out my dart board and I'll let you know what I come up with.

Wow Nova is projected to take the CAA autobid? I think we get in as an at large, JMU is going to take the CAA IMO

He has us 57% to win, 2.5 spread so basically a pick-em swayed by home field advantage

[bjtheflamesfan]

Locks:
Old Dominion - 8-3
James Madison - 9-2 (loss to West Virginia)
New Hampshire - 9-2 (loss to Minnesota)
Indiana State - 8-2 (loss to Indiana)
South Dakota State - 9-2 (loss to Kansas)
Montana State - 9-1
Cal Poly - 10-1 (win over Wyoming)
Northern Arizona - 8-2 (loss to Arizona State, win over UNLV)
Applachian State - 8-3 (loss to East Carolina)

Bubble for last spot:
Youngstown State - 7-4 (win over Pittsburgh)
Illinois State - 7-4 (win over Eastern Michigan)
Sam Houston State - 7-3 (losses to Baylor & Texas A&M)
McNeese State - 7-3 (win over Middle Tennessee State)
Wofford - 7-3 (loss to South Carolina)
Citadel - 7-4 (loss to North Carolina State)
Tennesse State - 8-3
Tennessee Martin - 9-2 (win over Memphis, loss to Northern Illinois)

Colgate, Coastal, Morgan and Monmouth are out from the get go.

I think it comes down YSU, Illinois State, Wofford and the Citadel. Depends on who their other losses are to. I cannot see a 7-win team from the MVFC or Socon being left behind for a 7 or 8 win team from the SLC or OVC.

Tons of good Big Sky teams this year.

I would add Sam to that discussion for the last spot personally. even if they only finished with 7 DI wins, I think Id be hard pressed to not include last year's national runner up in the discussion, and hate on the OVC all you want, UTM certainly would be in the discussion as well because of their FBS win just as much as YSU and ISU-R

[CID1990]

El Cid has to win out, and do so convincingly. UTC dropping one or two more will help, as well as Sammy losing one.

And if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their a$$es on the ground when they hop.

[MTfan4life]

I would add Sam to that discussion for the last spot personally. even if they only finished with 7 DI wins, I think Id be hard pressed to not include last year's national runner up in the discussion, and hate on the OVC all you want, UTM certainly would be in the discussion as well because of their FBS win just as much as YSU and ISU-R

Yeah, I can't see the committee leaving out a team that very likely would be ranked top 5 in both the TSN and Coaches polls.

[bostonspider]

What if the CAA comes down to this:

Nova wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Temple and UR
UNH wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Minnesota and ODU
UR wins out 8-3 (6-2) losses to UVA, UNH and ODU
JMU loses two 8-3 (6-2) losses to WVU, Nova and UR
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

Who gets in?

[Go Apps]

El Cid has to win out, and do so convincingly. UTC dropping one or two more will help, as well as Sammy losing one.

And if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their a$$es on the ground when they hop.

Citadel and UTC will lose again so leaving them both out - Samford is still in the mix so is Elon - to me they should win out from here - they are impressive in person and they have lost to ASU/GSU/Woff and an FBS team so I see them winning out to put them in the mix - based on the above scenario of teams ASU I guess is beating Wofford - I do not see that happening right now...with GSU, WCU and Furman on the schedule finding 3 more wins is difficult

[Go Apps]

What if the CAA comes down to this:

Nova wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Temple and UR
UNH wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Minnesota and ODU
UR wins out 8-3 (6-2) losses to UVA, UNH and ODU
JMU loses two 8-3 (6-2) losses to WVU, Nova and UR
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

Who gets in?

Can you toake out any Div 2 wins from above that would help

[Sam_Kats]

If Sam wins out with the exception of A&M, I don't see how they can leave a top 10 team out of the playoffs.

[whitey]

I'm not so sure.


If EKU wins the OVC auto-bid and say Tenn-Martin finishes 9-2 with a FBS win there is no way in hell the committee leaves them at home at the expense of a 7-4 Big Sky/CAA/MVC/SoCon team. I'm not saying that's right or wrong but I'm pretty certain the committee takes the #2 OVC in that scenario the majority of the time. They took a 7-4 EKU team (Co-OVC Champs) last year over a 7-4 Illinois State.

[danefan]

What if the CAA comes down to this:

Nova wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Temple and UR
UNH wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Minnesota and ODU
UR wins out 8-3 (6-2) losses to UVA, UNH and ODU
JMU loses two 8-3 (6-2) losses to WVU, Nova and UR
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

Who gets in?

Holy shnickeys. What a clusterF that is.

[WrenFGun]

What if the CAA comes down to this:

Nova wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Temple and UR
UNH wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Minnesota and ODU
UR wins out 8-3 (6-2) losses to UVA, UNH and ODU
JMU loses two 8-3 (6-2) losses to WVU, Nova and UR
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

Who gets in?

Small part of me says the NCAA would say F you to ODU; but all 5 probably get in that scenario.

[danefan]

Small part of me says the NCAA would say F you to ODU; but all 5 probably get in that scenario.

No 7 win teams in a playoff field that has those 5 teams that's for sure.

And all 5 of those teams could put a run together to win the NC.

[MTfan4life]

What if the CAA comes down to this:

Nova wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Temple and UR
UNH wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Minnesota and ODU
UR wins out 8-3 (6-2) losses to UVA, UNH and ODU
JMU loses two 8-3 (6-2) losses to WVU, Nova and UR
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

Who gets in?

With Laub injured for the next six weeks, do you really think Richmond has a chance at sweeping their final four games? They had quite the trouble throwing the ball after he went out of the UNH game, and that was against a mediocre defense.

[bostonspider]

Can you toake out any Div 2 wins from above that would help

No D-2 wins among the group. All D-1 games. All but ODU played and lost to an FBS team.

[bostonspider]

With Laub injured for the next six weeks, do you really think Richmond has a chance at sweeping their final four games? They had quite the trouble moving the ball after he went out of the UNH game, and that was against a mediocre defense.

Well having been at the game, I would not say that Strauss really had too much trouble moving the ball, but he also came in cold, having had no major reps with the offense. He did score one TD, and got majorly screwed on a long sideline pass that was called out of bounds, which on replay was clearly in. UR had to rely almost purely on the pass by that point, and UNH was gunning for him.

[MTfan4life]

Well having been at the game, I would not say that Strauss really had too much trouble moving the ball, but he also came in cold, having had no major reps with the offense. He did score one TD, and got majorly screwed on a long sideline pass that was called out of bounds, which on replay was clearly in. UR had to rely almost purely on the pass by that point, and UNH was gunning for him.

Sorry, I guess 5 for 12 against UNH's elite defense looks much more impressive in person. In my mind, that's having trouble, but to each their own. He'll get a pretty good chance to prove his worth right off the bat with a game against one the CAA's best defenses in JMU.

[BEAR]

If Sam wins out with the exception of A&M, I don't see how they can leave a top 10 team out of the playoffs.

With the exception of UCA also.

If SAM, UCA, SFA, McNeese win out its gonna be hard to choose.

If SFA wiins out they get the autobid.

If UCA wins out they will most likely be top 10 with wins over SAM and McNeese, they'll be 9-2 with an 8-2 division 1 record. How do you leave them out?

Just messed up for the committee. I don't envy them.

[tribefan40]

What if the CAA comes down to this:

Nova wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Temple and UR
UNH wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Minnesota and ODU
UR wins out 8-3 (6-2) losses to UVA, UNH and ODU
JMU loses two 8-3 (6-2) losses to WVU, Nova and UR
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

Who gets in?

In that scenario, all 5. Don't see that happening though. I could see:

Nova loses one 8-3 (6-2) losses to Temple, JMU and UR
UNH loses one 8-3 (6-2) losses to Minnesota, W&M and ODU
UR loses one 7-4 (5-3) losses to UVA, UNH, JMU and ODU
JMU wins out 10-1 (8-0) loss to WVU (Seeded)
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

I think I did the math right, and in that scenario I could still see all 5 getting in, depending on how other team's records shake out. W&M could play spoiler at the end for Richmond though, and completely take them out of the conversation.

[ASUMountaineer]

What if the CAA comes down to this:

Nova wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Temple and UR
UNH wins out 9-2 (7-1) losses to Minnesota and ODU
UR wins out 8-3 (6-2) losses to UVA, UNH and ODU
JMU loses two 8-3 (6-2) losses to WVU, Nova and UR
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

Who gets in?

All 5.

[Pitz]

What has Sam Houston State done this year that warrants a Top 10 ranking in so many polls? Are will still hanging onto last year's results this far into the current season?

[wapiti]

What if the BSC comes down to this:

EWU wins out (10-1)
NAU wins out (9-1)
CP finishes 2-3 (8-3) (Wins: PSU, ISU. Losses: Sac, EWU, NAU)
MSU finishes 3-1 (8-2) (Wins: ND, PSU, UM. Loss: Sac)
Sac finishes 3-1 (8-3) (Wins CP, MSU, UCD. Loss: EWU)

(I did not count any wins less than a Div 2.)
All but MSU have a W over a FBS.

Will the Big Sky get 5 teams in?

[tribefan40]

What if the BSC comes down to this:

EWU wins out (10-1)
NAU wins out (9-1)
CP finishes 2-3 (8-3) (Wins: PSU, ISU. Losses: Sac, EWU, NAU)
MSU finishes 3-1 (8-2) (Wins: ND, PSU, UM. Loss: Sac)
Sac finishes 3-1 (8-3) (Wins CP, MSU, UCD. Loss: EWU)

(I did not count any wins less than a Div 2.)
All but MSU have a W over a FBS.

Will the Big Sky get 5 teams in?

If you pair this with the earlier CAA scenario, half the playoff field could be comprised of BSC/CAA. Although somewhat unlikely, it would be interesting.

[Twentysix]

What if the BSC comes down to this:

EWU wins out (10-1)
NAU wins out (9-1)
CP finishes 2-3 (8-3) (Wins: PSU, ISU. Losses: Sac, EWU, NAU)
MSU finishes 3-1 (8-2) (Wins: ND, PSU, UM. Loss: Sac)
Sac finishes 3-1 (8-3) (Wins CP, MSU, UCD. Loss: EWU)

(I did not count any wins less than a Div 2.)
All but MSU have a W over a FBS.

Will the Big Sky get 5 teams in?

Impossible to say, since you are deviating from the predicted W/L in one conference. Any conference getting 5 teams in depends as much or more on the rest of the FCS than it does on what happens in the conference.

[WileECoyote06]

With the exception of UCA also.

If SAM, UCA, SFA, McNeese win out its gonna be hard to choose.

If SFA wiins out they get the autobid.

If UCA wins out they will most likely be top 10 with wins over SAM and McNeese, they'll be 9-2 with an 8-2 division 1 record. How do you leave them out?

Just messed up for the committee. I don't envy them.

You can't leave them out. And with the GPI and Massey both showing the Southland to be a higher rated conference than the CAA thus far; they'd have an argument against the CAA receiving the four or five bids people are claiming on here. The MVFC can claim four or five, but the CAA should be limited to three at the most.

[danefan]

What has Sam Houston State done this year that warrants a Top 10 ranking in so many polls? Are will still hanging onto last year's results this far into the current season?

Yes. SHSU's ranking is definitely being propped up by the runner-up finish in 2011.

I'm not sure the Committee will put as much weight into that 4 weeks from now as pollsters are now.

[danefan]

You can't leave them out. And with the GPI and Massey both showing the Southland to be a higher rated conference than the CAA thus far; they'd have an argument against the CAA receiving the four or five bids people are claiming on here. The MVFC can claim four or five, but the CAA should be limited to three at the most.

Neither Massey nor the GPI have anything to do with any arguments when you're talking about the Committee.

You can use them as a predictor, but they've both shown to be inaccurate over and over again when it comes down to those last few teams in with at-larges.

[Dane96]

What has Sam Houston State done this year that warrants a Top 10 ranking in so many polls? Are will still hanging onto last year's results this far into the current season?

Nothing...and I am going out a limb here and saying it:

THEY AREN'T EVEN IN MY POLL!!!!!

They had such a high start ratio so many can't "not have them in". Baloney...there resume is not Top 25.

Now, if they keep on winning...that clearly changes. But if you side-by-side them with the rest of the Top 25...there is a glaring issue....TODAY!!!!

[Dane96]

You can't leave them out. And with the GPI and Massey both showing the Southland to be a higher rated conference than the CAA thus far; they'd have an argument against the CAA receiving the four or five bids people are claiming on here. The MVFC can claim four or five, but the CAA should be limited to three at the most.

They are higher rated b/c of start ratio and b/c of the FBS teams played.

I will tell you right now...and I know this for a fact from members of the hoop selection committee I have had numerous conversations with over the years...the March Madness Committee has and will continue to leave out teams that don't warrant selection even with a record that looks good on paper.

The problem with the SLC is that the rest of the season must truly play out for us to see what is going to happen. But at this rate, all we have is the OOC to go on...and they own exactly one OK win: MTSU. So how do you gauge a league that has no real OOC comparison to go on?!?!

Stop playing the Bacone's of the world....

[WileECoyote06]

Neither Massey nor the GPI have anything to do with any arguments when you're talking about the Committee.

You can use them as a predictor, but they've both shown to be inaccurate over and over again when it comes down to those last few teams in with at-larges.

I was referring more to conference strength than individual teams. Although they may not use either to evaluate teams directly; I'm willing to bet that they strongly consider computer rankings to evaluate how strong a conference is. In the past conference strength ratings have seemed to influence how teams are seeded; so I'm sure it also influences who gets in as well.

[Dane96]

If Sam wins out with the exception of A&M, I don't see how they can leave a top 10 team out of the playoffs.

I'd agree...but...right now...it's a what if. If they were picking today...this team would be left out b/c of a lack of a resume.

[Dane96]

I was referring more to conference strength than individual teams. Although they may not use either to evaluate teams directly; I'm willing to bet that they strongly consider computer rankings to evaluate how strong a conference is. In the past conference strength ratings have seemed to influence how teams are seeded; so I'm sure it also influences who gets in as well.

Again, artificially propped up b/c of the FBS games, which are given heavy weight, and the historical start point. I am talking about the conference...not individual teams. It applies to both.

[danefan]

I was referring more to conference strength than individual teams. Although they may not use either to evaluate teams directly; I'm willing to bet that they strongly consider computer rankings to evaluate how strong a conference is. In the past conference strength ratings have seemed to influence how teams are seeded; so I'm sure it also influences who gets in as well.

There's nothing to indicate they use computer ratings for anything other than the Bridge AQ (a concept we've beaten to death on here). I don't think its difficult without the help of a computer to figure out the strength of conferences when it comes down to seeding playoff teams.

[WileECoyote06]

Welp, people questioned SCSU back in 2010; and they were included too. Their selection philosophy doesn't deviate much. Not in my opinion anyway.

1) Who you beat is weighted more than who beat you.
2) Co-Champs are given the benefit of the doubt.
3) Conference strength ratings highly influence seeding.
4) Undefeated teams from an autobid conference will receive a seed.
5) Being highly ranked in the polls gains the benefit of the doubt.

We'll see how it pans out. I'm not convinced that the CAA will shake out like that anyway.

[danefan]

Welp, people questioned SCSU back in 2010; and they were included too. Their selection philosophy doesn't deviate much. Not in my opinion anyway.

1) Who you beat is weighted more than who beat you.
2) Co-Champs are given the benefit of the doubt.
3) Conference strength ratings highly influence seeding.
4) Undefeated teams will gain a seed from an autobid conference will receive a seed.
5) Being highly ranked in the polls gains the benefit of the doubt.

We'll see how it pans out. I'm not convinced that the CAA will shake out like that anyway.

Only time will tell, but I guess I don't see computer rankings and conference ratings as driving anything. My understanding from prior interviews is the committee has their own ranking system and gets to the conclusions on their own accord. They may have some supporting materials but they certainly don't rely on them. SCSU is a great example. What was their final computer rating that year? 40 something wasn't it?

[WileECoyote06]

Only time will tell, but I guess I don't see computer rankings and conference ratings as driving anything. My understanding from prior interviews is the committee has their own ranking system and gets to the conclusions on their own accord. They may have some supporting materials but they certainly don't rely on them. SCSU is a great example. What was their final computer rating that year? 40 something wasn't it?

Correct. But they were a co-champ.

[danefan]

Correct. But they were a co-champ.

Good point, but Duquesne was 9-2 and co-NEC champs last year too. Guess the "co champ" theory doesn't extend down to the NEC or Big South just yet.

[WileECoyote06]

Good point, but Duquesne was 9-2 and co-NEC champs last year too. Guess the "co champ" theory doesn't extend down to the NEC or Big South just yet.

Which was strange. If I recall though, that year SCSU was ranked inside the top 20 in both polls. Eastern Kentucky made a poll appearance in the TSN poll last year; while Duquesne wasn't featured in either poll at any point during the season.

[Go Apps]

Small part of me says the NCAA would say F you to ODU; but all 5 probably get in that scenario.

No way 5 gets in from any conference - not this year - I think 3 may be your max with 3 from the big Sky and MVC for certain - that leaves 4 at large and it appears the Socon and Southland will get one each - that leaves two spots my gut tells me that the OVC will grab one leaving one spot up for grabs and 4 conferences fighting over it - the CAA's RPI is lower so that puts them in a sticky situation...

[Go Apps]

In that scenario, all 5. Don't see that happening though. I could see:

Nova loses one 8-3 (6-2) losses to Temple, JMU and UR
UNH loses one 8-3 (6-2) losses to Minnesota, W&M and ODU
UR loses one 7-4 (5-3) losses to UVA, UNH, JMU and ODU
JMU wins out 10-1 (8-0) loss to WVU (Seeded)
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

I think I did the math right, and in that scenario I could still see all 5 getting in, depending on how other team's records shake out. W&M could play spoiler at the end for Richmond though, and completely take them out of the conversation.

In this scenario Richmond is out

[Go Apps]

What if the BSC comes down to this:

EWU wins out (10-1)
NAU wins out (9-1)
CP finishes 2-3 (8-3) (Wins: PSU, ISU. Losses: Sac, EWU, NAU)
MSU finishes 3-1 (8-2) (Wins: ND, PSU, UM. Loss: Sac)
Sac finishes 3-1 (8-3) (Wins CP, MSU, UCD. Loss: EWU)

(I did not count any wins less than a Div 2.)
All but MSU have a W over a FBS.

Will the Big Sky get 5 teams in?

THe team on the bubble here is Cal Poly not a great strength of schedule

[Go Apps]

Impossible to say, since you are deviating from the predicted W/L in one conference. Any conference getting 5 teams in depends as much or more on the rest of the FCS than it does on what happens in the conference.

Hey folks - focus on this - we are not the FBS all searching for a single bowl - the mess that has been created above is by the oversized conferences where they do not decide a champion on the field - IMO they need to bar how many are chosen from any given conference enough is enough - perhaps 3 or 4 at most - but conferences who crown a champ and play through an entire schedule should get special consideration over those that amass wins over a bunch of teams at the bottom. if those super conferences played each other fully we would not be in a situation of 5 teams from a conference we would clearly know who was supreme...

In the FCS world more than 10 to a conference is a negative - can't those conferences move to a 12 game schedule and play 10 or 11 conference opponets rather than the Div2 schools that still leaves an opening for an FBS matchup...there is a better way to clear this up..sending 4 or even 5 from one conference is stupid!!!

[wapiti]

Hey folks - focus on this - we are not the FBS all searching for a single bowl - the mess that has been created above is by the oversized conferences where they do not decide a champion on the field - IMO they need to bar how many are chosen from any given conference enough is enough - perhaps 3 or 4 at most - but conferences who crown a champ and play through an entire schedule should get special consideration over those that amass wins over a bunch of teams at the bottom. if those super conferences played each other fully we would not be in a situation of 5 teams from a conference we would clearly know who was supreme...

In the FCS world more than 10 to a conference is a negative - can't those conferences move to a 12 game schedule and play 10 or 11 conference opponets rather than the Div2 schools that still leaves an opening for an FBS matchup...there is a better way to clear this up..sending 4 or even 5 from one conference is stupid!!!

In one ideal world Idaho rejoins the BSC, along with New Mexico State, and Central Washington makes the jump and joins the BSC. Then half of the BSC splits and reforms the Great West Football Conference and receives an auto bid.

[URMite]

In that scenario, all 5. Don't see that happening though. I could see:

Nova loses one 8-3 (6-2) losses to Temple, JMU and UR
UNH loses one 8-3 (6-2) losses to Minnesota, W&M and ODU
UR loses one 7-4 (5-3) losses to UVA, UNH, JMU and ODU
JMU wins out 10-1 (8-0) loss to WVU (Seeded)
ODU loses one 9-2 (6-2) losses to Nova and JMU

I think I did the math right, and in that scenario I could still see all 5 getting in, depending on how other team's records shake out. W&M could play spoiler at the end for Richmond though, and completely take them out of the conversation.

That does seem like the most likely scenario and UR becomes the 2007 Nova team...

[UNDBIZ]

What if the BSC comes down to this:

EWU wins out (10-1)
NAU wins out (9-1)
CP finishes 2-3 (8-3) (Wins: PSU, ISU. Losses: Sac, EWU, NAU)
MSU finishes 3-1 (8-2) (Wins: ND, PSU, UM. Loss: Sac)
Sac finishes 3-1 (8-3) (Wins CP, MSU, UCD. Loss: EWU)

(I did not count any wins less than a Div 2.)
All but MSU have a W over a FBS.

Will the Big Sky get 5 teams in?

Sac St should lose to both Cal Poly and Mt St. So this shouldn't be an issue within a few weeks.....

[walliver]

I'm not so sure.

By the way, this is exactly the type of year that every major conference fan should look at and thank the NEC and Big South for forcing the NCAA's hand to expand the playoffs. If the field is 16 this year there would be a few national title contender teams sitting at home on Thanksgiving.


Actually, I think the NCAA should go back to 16 teams and 8 auto bids (which would be adjusted every year if needed).

By the time the projected games are actually played, there will be a number of upsets and other losses, and the actual list of National Championship contenders will be much smaller. There will always be bubble teams, but I suspect the bubble teams will be 7 win teams from the established conferences and 8-9 win teams from the lesser-respected conferences. No real contender will be left out.

[danefan]

Actually, I think the NCAA should go back to 16 teams and 8 auto bids (which would be adjusted every year if needed).

By the time the projected games are actually played, there will be a number of upsets and other losses, and the actual list of National Championship contenders will be much smaller. There will always be bubble teams, but I suspect the bubble teams will be 7 win teams from the established conferences and 8-9 win teams from the lesser-respected conferences. No real contender will be left out.

We'll see about that as the season goes on. Right now 20 slots isn't enough, IMO.

[Go Apps]

okay if we go to 24 who are they - still believe there are a lot of 8-3 that get in over what we all believe is some excellent 7-4 teams

[danefan]

okay if we go to 24 who are they - still believe there are a lot of 8-3 that get in over what we all believe is some excellent 7-4 teams

I could easily pick 13 at-larges out of this list:

Old Dominion - 8-3
James Madison - 9-2 (loss to West Virginia)
New Hampshire - 9-2 (loss to Minnesota)
Colgate - 7-4
Youngstown State - 7-4 (win over Pittsburgh)
Illinois State - 7-4 (win over Eastern Michigan)
Indiana State - 8-2 (loss to Indiana)
South Dakota State - 9-2 (loss to Kansas)
Sam Houston State - 7-3 (losses to Baylor & Texas A&M)
McNeese State - 7-3 (win over Middle Tennessee State)
Montana State - 9-1
Cal Poly - 10-1 (win over Wyoming)
Northern Arizona - 8-2 (loss to Arizona State, win over UNLV)
Applachian State - 8-3 (loss to East Carolina)
Wofford - 7-3 (loss to South Carolina)
Citadel - 7-4 (loss to North Carolina State)
Coastal Carolina - 7-4 (loss to Toledo)
Morgan State - 7-4 (losses to Buffalo & Akron)
Monmouth - 8-3
Tennesse State - 8-3
Tennessee Martin - 9-2 (win over Memphis, loss to Northern Illinois)

[ekufbfan]

I would add Sam to that discussion for the last spot personally. even if they only finished with 7 DI wins, I think Id be hard pressed to not include last year's national runner up in the discussion, and hate on the OVC all you want, UTM certainly would be in the discussion as well because of their FBS win just as much as YSU and ISU-R


danefan: So you'd take a 2nd OVC team over either of the two 7-win teams from the MVFC with FBS wins?


FYI: Tennessee State right now looks like the auto bid from the OVC. They are undefeated.
EKU's loses are to Purdue and Tennessee State (by 3 at their place)
UTM lost to EKU.
As far as the OVC getting 2 bids who knows. I certainly think there are years that 2 teams from the OVC deserve a bid over a team from another conference that already has 3 or 4 teams in and has lost 3-4 games and finished 4th or lower in their respective conference. That said, an Albany fan throwing the OVC under the bus every chance they get is comical. Just curious. How long has Albany been in FCS and HOW many playoff appearanaces have they had? won?

[danefan]

FYI: Tennessee State right now looks like the auto bid from the OVC. They are undefeated.
EKU's loses are to Purdue and Tennessee State (by 3 at their place)
UTM lost to EKU.
As far as the OVC getting 2 bids who knows. I certainly think there are years that 2 teams from the OVC deserve a bid over a team from another conference that already has 3 or 4 teams in and has lost 3-4 games and finished 4th or lower in their respective conference. That said, an Albany fan throwing the OVC under the bus every chance they get is comical. Just curious. How long has Albany been in FCS and HOW many playoff appearanaces have they had? won?

See this post http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?120170-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-7/page7&p=1868716#post1868716

Back your points up with fact. The discussion has absolutely zero to do with Albany.

[Sam_Kats]

Sorry, I guess 5 for 12 against UNH's elite defense looks much more impressive in person. In my mind, that's having trouble, but to each their own. He'll get a pretty good chance to prove his worth right off the bat with a game against one the CAA's best defenses in JMU.

Sam & McNeese can't both win out. We'll know Saturday about 10:30 which one will. And, yes, I agree - if Sam & UCA win out, UCA gets auto-bid & Sam gets at-large. If that's the case, I think the SLC is pretty well-represented with the two schools combining to win 4 playoff games last year.

[ekufbfan]

See this post http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?120170-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-7/page7&p=1868716#post1868716

Back your points up with fact. The discussion has absolutely zero to do with Albany.

An observation, that's all. The negativity (I know it all attitude) that is shown by several Albany fans on here.

[dbackjon]

If Sam wins out with the exception of A&M, I don't see how they can leave a top 10 team out of the playoffs.


I am still trying to get someone to explain why SAM is a top 10 team to begin with...

[danefan]

An observation, that's all. The negativity (I know it all attitude) that is shown by several Albany fans on here.

Its nothing more than an excuse when you can't prove us wrong.

By the way, I'm the first to admit when I'm wrong or my position has been refuted. I have no issue with that at all.

[danefan]

I am still trying to get someone to explain why SAM is a top 10 team to begin with...

Because they went to the Championship last year.

[dbackjon]

Because they went to the Championship last year.


Ok - now a valid reason...

[Sam_Kats]

An observation, that's all. The negativity (I know it all attitude) that is shown by several Albany fans on here.

It's very simple, when you start out #2, you must do things to FALL from the poll. Sam did that - lost a 10 pt lead to a very powerful Baylor team @ their place & lost on a last-second fade to #19 UCA. And fall they did. Everyone else on the schedule has been a pretty convincing win. When a team starts #25 in the polls, they must do something to CLIMB the polls. What's so hard to understand about this?? Don't agree with some of the folks that have us @ #5 but also don't agree with those who list us @ #20's. I do think the REAL polls have it right...#10 or #11.

NDSU lost AT HOME to an unranked team & fell 2-3 spots. No one has an issue. Sam loses to a RANKED team AT THEIR FIELD and people want them to fall out of the Top 10? Top 15? Top 20?? Doesn't matter to me - Sam will either earn it by winning out (with the exception of a VERY good A&M team) or lose another FCS game & miss the playoffs. So the polls are irrelevant right now. It will all get sorted out.

[dbackjon]

It's very simple, when you start out #2, you must do things to FALL from the poll. Sam did that - lost a 10 pt lead to a very powerful Baylor team @ their place & lost on a last-second fade to #19 UCA. And fall they did. Everyone else on the schedule has been a pretty convincing win. When a team starts #25 in the polls, they must do something to CLIMB the polls. What's so hard to understand about this?? Don't agree with some of the folks that have us @ #5 but also don't agree with those who list us @ #20's. I do think the REAL polls have it right...#10 or #11.

What is so hard to understand that using preseason rankings to justify a ranking 7 weeks into the season is a ****ing stupid, moronic thing to do?

This is why preseason/early season rankings are a joke. People use them as crutches to slot teams, regardless of what ACTUALLY HAS HAPPENED.

SHSU starting the season #2, just because they were national runner up, has ZERO to do with where they should be ranked right now.

SHSU has not shown anything much this season - the three wins (wins that count) are over teams with a combined two DI wins.

[ekufbfan]

OBSERVATION: judgment on or inference from what one has observed.

Fact: I have observed that you have 8,923 posts on this message board.
Opinion (and maybe fact): It is my observation and my opinion that anyone who posts 8,923 times on a message board has a LOT to say. (Important and/or fact? that is debatable! xeyebrowx)
Fact: I have observed that the OVC is generally referred to negatively by Albany fans.


Its nothing more than an excuse when you can't prove us wrong.
Huh? About what? I am making no excuses about anything. To use your words: Back up your comment with "facts" xcoffeex

[Dane96]

An observation, that's all. The negativity (I know it all attitude) that is shown by several Albany fans on here.

So...presenting an opinion based on facts is now a show of negativity.

Man this country has become straight pussified.

[RabidRabbit]

It's very simple, when you start out #2, you must do things to FALL from the poll. Sam did that - lost a 10 pt lead to a very powerful Baylor team @ their place & lost on a last-second fade to #19 UCA. And fall they did. Everyone else on the schedule has been a pretty convincing win. When a team starts #25 in the polls, they must do something to CLIMB the polls. What's so hard to understand about this?? Don't agree with some of the folks that have us @ #5 but also don't agree with those who list us @ #20's. I do think the REAL polls have it right...#10 or #11.

NDSU lost AT HOME to an unranked team & fell 2-3 spots. No one has an issue. Sam loses to a RANKED team AT THEIR FIELD and people want them to fall out of the Top 10? Top 15? Top 20?? Doesn't matter to me - Sam will either earn it by winning out (with the exception of a VERY good A&M team) or lose another FCS game & miss the playoffs. So the polls are irrelevant right now. It will all get sorted out.

Doesn't SHSU have a D-II game also? So should they get a 2nd loss in conference, Kats wouldn't reach the magical 7 D-I wins, and probably wouldn't be the auto-bid. Two BCS $$ games, and a D-II game is a recipe for how to schedule yourself out of play-offs.

[Dane96]

I am still trying to get someone to explain why SAM is a top 10 team to begin with...

Jon...they are not...and I will say it again and open it up...they are NOT IN MY POLL...at ALL. If they keep on winning, then we have a change in my eyes.

[Dane96]

It's very simple, when you start out #2, you must do things to FALL from the poll.

You can stop right there. If there were no pre-season polls...at best SHSU has a 20-25 resume. At best.

Point is...SHSU is there because people are too afraid to drop "slots" or actually call teams for what they are as of TODAY!!!

[Dane96]

OBSERVATION: judgment on or inference from what one has observed.

Fact: I have observed that you have 8,923 posts on this message board.
Opinion (and maybe fact): It is my observation and my opinion that anyone who posts 8,923 times on a message board has a LOT to say. (Important and/or fact? that is debatable! xeyebrowx)
Fact: I have observed that the OVC is generally referred to negatively by Albany fans.


Huh? About what? I am making no excuses about anything. To use your words: Back up your comment with "facts" xcoffeex

Again, pointing out facts (like the lack of OVC playoff success in current times) is not negativity. A red-herring is you stating Albany fans generally refer to the OVC negatively. Prove it other than fans stating, the league in the past years hasn't been deserving of a 2nd bid and fans putting forth facts to support that opinion.

Now...are you seriously going to sit there and say NO OTHER FANS have done the same about the OVC. I can say, for a fact, others have.

Just as an FYI, I have EKU ranked higher than Albany...and I have Tenn State in as well.

Go on and continue fishing for red-herring.

[RabidRabbit]

You can stop right there. If there were no pre-season polls...at best SHSU has a 20-25 resume. At best.

Point is...SHSU is there because people are too afraid to drop "slots" or actually call teams for what they are as of TODAY!!!

It takes a lot to get traditional powers out of polls, and a long time for "lesser" programs to get voted in. As coach Stig states, goal is to be 1-0 each week. The rest will take care of itself.

[Twentysix]

It takes a lot to get traditional powers out of polls, and a long time for "lesser" programs to get voted in. As coach Stig states, goal is to be 1-0 each week. The rest will take care of itself.

When did SHSU become a traditional power? xblehx

SHSU

02: 4-7 (Win against subDI)
03: 2-9 (Win against subDI loss against subDI)
04: 11-3 (2 subDI wins)
05: 3-7 (win against subDI)
06: 6-5 (win against subDI)
07: 7-4 (2 subDI wins, loss to NDSU;))
08: 4-6 (win against subDI)
09: 5-6 (win against subDI)
10: 6-5
11: 14-1

Perhaps they were a power before 02?

[dbackjon]

Doesn't SHSU have a D-II game also? So should they get a 2nd loss in conference, Kats wouldn't reach the magical 7 D-I wins, and probably wouldn't be the auto-bid. Two BCS $$ games, and a D-II game is a recipe for how to schedule yourself out of play-offs.

They beat UIW, who are DII currently.

Yes, tough to make playoffs with that schedule, unless you can win one of the FBS games.

So SHSU is 3-2, with Texas A&M on the schedule still. Lose that, they have to sweep their four remaining games to get to 7 DI wins.

[ekufbfan]

Dane96;1869062]Again, pointing out facts (like the lack of OVC playoff success in current times) is not negativity. A red-herring is you stating Albany fans generally refer to the OVC negatively. Prove it other than fans stating, the league in the past years hasn't been deserving of a 2nd bid and fans putting forth facts to support that opinion.

Now...are you seriously going to sit there and say NO OTHER FANS have done the same about the OVC. I can say, for a fact, others have.

Just as an FYI, I have EKU ranked higher than Albany...and I have Tenn State in as well.

There is NO FACT that says a team from another conference that finishes BELOW a 2 or 3 place team in that conference belongs in the playoffs before a 2nd OVC team. That is your OPINION, not a fact.xbangx
Actually we both are arguing semantics and opinions, not facts. It is your OPINION that a second OVC team does not belong in the playoffs and it is my observation that I read a lot of negative "opinions" by Albany fans. (BTW, I have not said others have not posted negative comments regarding the OVC, I don' know where you got that. You just surmised that I was inferrring that ).

[Dane96]

I dare you to show where i ever said that.

NOW GO GRAB YOUR SHINE BOX!

[ekufbfan]

I dare you to show where i ever said that.

NOW GO GRAB YOUR SHINE BOX!
7,439 posts and still counting xlolx
No need for me to say more xeyebrowx

[Dane96]

Okie dokie.

[jmufan999]

JMU wins out 10-1 (8-0) loss to WVU (Seeded)

Yikes. Appreciate the respect, but... you watched the JMU/W&M game, right? I didn't see a 10-1 JMU team. And I think W&M is much better than their record, without a doubt. #3 (McBride?) is one of the better receivers I've seen in the last 2 years. ODU has a guy (Pinkard?) that's pretty sick too.

JMU has 4 lose-able games left: @ Richmond, @ Maine, @ Villanova, and vs. ODU. We won't lose more than 2 of those, but I'd be extremely surprised if we win all 4. Possible, but not probable. Then again, my predictions (as usual) have sucked this year. Of those 4, I'm more confident we'll beat Maine than the other 3 teams.

ODU's offense is a bad matchup for JMU's defensive scheme (no press coverage, which is the way to beat them. That and getting a good pass rush with 4 guys). I'm leaning toward predicting a JMU loss in that one.

[DSUrocks07]

7,439 posts and still counting xlolx
No need for me to say more xeyebrowx

At the rate you're going I'm sure you'll get there eventually...

[Skyhawk71]

I wouldn't but the committee will. I thought thats what we were doing :p

I think the 7 win MVFC teams would blow Tenn Martin up. But, I bet in this situation the committe gives the OVC 2.]

Like Illinois State, that went double-overtime with Eastern Illinois in Normal, and then EIU just happened to get beat 51-37 by Tennessee-Martin, all I can give you is a common opponent; yeah, there are teams at the top of the MVFC that would blow them up, but they won't have to worry about that because if they do go 9-2, they deserve to be in, If they go 8-3 I don't necessarily think that they do..........

[stevdock]

Moral of the story is don't finish the season with 7 wins because you will be done this season, and 8 wins is no sure thing. Win your games on the schedule and take your situation out of the committee's hands. Also those OOC games are starting to become more and more important and you've gotta have a big OOC win on your resume.

This is not a slam on the Big Sky, but I'm very curious to know if they have very tough teams this year or if they have the top beating up on the bottom teams and because of that overly inflating the win total. Awesome thing is after the committee decides who is in, we will find things like this out very quickly.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Yikes. Appreciate the respect, but... you watched the JMU/W&M game, right? I didn't see a 10-1 JMU team. And I think W&M is much better than their record, without a doubt. #3 (McBride?) is one of the better receivers I've seen in the last 2 years. ODU has a guy (Pinkard?) that's pretty sick too.

JMU has 4 lose-able games left: @ Richmond, @ Maine, @ Villanova, and vs. ODU. We won't lose more than 2 of those, but I'd be extremely surprised if we win all 4. Possible, but not probable. Then again, my predictions (as usual) have sucked this year. Of those 4, I'm more confident we'll beat Maine than the other 3 teams.

ODU's offense is a bad matchup for JMU's defensive scheme (no press coverage, which is the way to beat them. That and getting a good pass rush with 4 guys). I'm leaning toward predicting a JMU loss in that one.


AH SAW...UH JMU...SQWAD...COMIN' OFFAH...HARD FOUGHT W..AGIN' TOWSON....WHO'S TANK...WAS DRAINED..FROM SAID EXPERIENCE.....AN' STILL WAS VICTORIOUS....UN-LIKE....SAY....... NORFF DAKOTAH STATE'S W....AGIN' YOUNGSTOWN......WHOM CAME UP SHORT...IN SYCAMORE UPSET.....AWK!

PS.............CAIN'T BELIEVE AH'M DEFENDIN' SAID DUKIES.....AGIN' ONE UH DERE OWN......xoopsx.........BRAWK/OBAMA/BIDEN/KEELER/RAYMOND/NELSON/MURRAY/LETTERMAN/LENO/WINFREY/URSUS/CLENZ...&....COACH MICKEY!

PSS...YEAH...UH SUCKIN' UP TA URSUS.....WANNAH WIN UH GOOD PRIZE.....IFIN' AH DON'T MISS UH VOTE!!!!...DOODLE-DOO-DOO!

[BucBisonAtLarge]

There are three 1-0 PL teams- Lehigh, Lafayette and Colgate. Five conference games to go, Lehigh has been unconvincing. Either Colgate or Lafayette could, in either game in the last two weeks of the season, spoil an undefeated season for the Brownies, snag the auto bid and leave the committee replacing a 7-4 MVFC or BSC with 10-1 Lehigh. The PL picked up its SOS this year, so two bids is not preposterous.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

There are three 1-0 PL teams- Lehigh, Lafayette and Colgate. Five conference games to go, Lehigh has been unconvincing. Either Colgate or Lafayette could, in either game in the last two weeks of the season, spoil an undefeated season for the Brownies, snag the auto bid and leave the committee replacing a 7-4 MVFC or BSC with 10-1 Lehigh. The PL picked up its SOS this year, so two bids is not preposterous.

I will be saying my prayers that this doesn't happen...

[Sam_Kats]

You can stop right there. If there were no pre-season polls...at best SHSU has a 20-25 resume. At best.

Point is...SHSU is there because people are too afraid to drop "slots" or actually call teams for what they are as of TODAY!!!

You're reaching too far. If, if, if, if............if my Aunt had balls, she'd be my Uncle. Fact is, there ARE pre-season polls. There always will be. And, yes, RabidRabbit, I agree that if the Kats lose another FCS game, they remain out of the playoffs - and should. No one outside of the AD is happy about our scheduling that left virtually ZERO room for error.

[tribefan40]

AH SAW...UH JMU...SQWAD...COMIN' OFFAH...HARD FOUGHT W..AGIN' TOWSON....WHO'S TANK...WAS DRAINED..FROM SAID EXPERIENCE.....AN' STILL WAS VICTORIOUS....UN-LIKE....SAY....... NORFF DAKOTAH STATE'S W....AGIN' YOUNGSTOWN......WHOM CAME UP SHORT...IN SYCAMORE UPSET.....AWK!

PS.............CAIN'T BELIEVE AH'M DEFENDIN' SAID DUKIES.....AGIN' ONE UH DERE OWN......xoopsx.........BRAWK/OBAMA/BIDEN/KEELER/RAYMOND/NELSON/MURRAY/LETTERMAN/LENO/WINFREY/URSUS/CLENZ...&....COACH MICKEY!

PSS...YEAH...UH SUCKIN' UP TA URSUS.....WANNAH WIN UH GOOD PRIZE.....IFIN' AH DON'T MISS UH VOTE!!!!...DOODLE-DOO-DOO!

My thought as well..... I think....... Conference games are always interesting and tough to call, but I think JMU has as good a shot or better than the rest at running the table. The ODU game will be tough, but you do get them at home.

[tribefan40]

In this scenario Richmond is out
Probably, but as indicated depends on how some other teams finish up.

[Sammy94]

When did SHSU become a traditional power?

Even I laughed at that one. The reason the Kats were ranked so high in the pre-season is because they brought back 98% of a 14-1 team that played in the NC. Not just because they played in the NC.
The schedule is an issue that has put the Kats in a situation where they have to win to get in. Besides the A&M game, they should do that. At 7 wins, the Kats get in.

[89rabbit]

There are three 1-0 PL teams- Lehigh, Lafayette and Colgate. Five conference games to go, Lehigh has been unconvincing. Either Colgate or Lafayette could, in either game in the last two weeks of the season, spoil an undefeated season for the Brownies, snag the auto bid and leave the committee replacing a 7-4 MVFC or BSC with 10-1 Lehigh. The PL picked up its SOS this year, so two bids is not preposterous.

See that is the problem. Colgate lost to USD the MVFC's last place team, as a matter of fact Colgate is USD's only win on the season. What does that say about the two leagues? xchinscratchx

[ekufbfan]

At the rate you're going I'm sure you'll get there eventually...
Nah, I doubt it. But I see that YOU are half way there. xnodx

[LUHawker]

See that is the problem. Colgate lost to USD the MVFC's last place team, as a matter of fact Colgate is USD's only win on the season. What does that say about the two leagues? xchinscratchx

It says nothing about either league. It only says that South Dakota beat Colgate. Does Lafayette defeating W&M say anything about the conferences? No. Does Robert Morris defeating Lafayette say anything either? No. Was Colgate jet-lagged, maybe. Is Colgate a slow-starter (to the season)? Yes.

Transitive properties don't work well with teams, let alone conferences.

[Dane96]

Wow...ekubfan...why post here then? First you make up lies about what others have said. Then you make inferences because people here rack up a large number of posts?

Is there a whiskey mill in your basement (T.I.C.)

[ekufbfan]

Wow...ekubfan...why post here then? First you make up lies about what others have said. Then you make inferences because people here rack up a large number of posts?

Is there a whiskey mill in your basement (T.I.C.)


Lies? Go back and read what was written by another Albany fan, there are no "lies" on here. This whole thing degenerated to this BECAUSE I had the gall to take offense with what I perceive to be negatvity toward the OVC by an Albany fan. I don't have the inclination or the time to look up which one of the two on this thread said what. And why DSU got involved is a head scratcher, but I only replied to his unnecessary comment. In my "opinion" this whole thing has deteriorated to pointlessness. Go ahead, both of you Albany fans and DSU can have the last word. xarguex

[Lehigh'98]

It says nothing about either league. It only says that South Dakota beat Colgate. Does Lafayette defeating W&M say anything about the conferences? No. Does Robert Morris defeating Lafayette say anything either? No. Was Colgate jet-lagged, maybe. Is Colgate a slow-starter (to the season)? Yes.

Transitive properties don't work well with teams, let alone conferences.


People NEVER understand this in any sport be it boxing, football, tennis....whatnot. Its why vegas wins money over and over again in sportsbetting because people see a team one week look real bad or real good and assume that's how they will play next. Then they don't because sports is all about matchups, styles and situations.

[Dane96]

Lies? Go back and read what was written by another Albany fan, there are no "lies" on here. This whole thing degenerated to this BECAUSE I had the gall to take offense with what I perceive to be negatvity toward the OVC by an Albany fan. I don't have the inclination or the time to look up which one of the two on this thread said what. And why DSU got involved is a head scratcher, but I only replied to his unnecessary comment. In my "opinion" this whole thing has deteriorated to pointlessness. Go ahead, both of you Albany fans and DSU can have the last word. xarguex

Man...you are a sensitive fella.

Opinons = Words = No Big Deal if it doesn't involve your family

[ysubigred]

Does a 7-4 YSU team make the playoff's??

+ one of the toughest schedules
beat a 1BCS team
good following/fan base $$ for the NCAA
All div 1 schedule

- would have lost 4 of their last 7 games
alot of other teams at 8-3

I'm hoping this is not an issue 9-2 or 8-3 xthumbsupx

[van]

See that is the problem. Colgate lost to USD the MVFC's last place team, as a matter of fact Colgate is USD's only win on the season. What does that say about the two leagues? xchinscratchx

The Colgate team of today is much improved since the trip to the badlands, some teams start fast and lose steam and some go in the other direction.

[Jazzman1522]

The question of how many OVC teams get in the playoffs has a lot to do, in my opinion, with who gets the autobid. Tennessee State is the leader at this point and, at 7-0, looks pretty tough. But it is hard to get a gauge on them, as they've played what many would perceive to be a weak schedule so far. There's also 3 teams sitting at 3-1 in the conference (UT Martin, EKU, and EIU).

Personally, I think that if EKU wins out, they absolutely deserve a spot regardless of who wins the autobid. You could make a similar argument for UT Martin. The question I have is what about Tennessee State? Because there's a scenario here where they make it to the last game of the year and lose to Martin and you've got three teams sharing the title. I don't remember the tiebreaker for the autobid in that scenario but you'd have EKU at 9-2, UT Martin at 9-2, and TSU at 10-1.

Could this mean a possibility of 3 OVC teams getting in? Obviously, this requires a lot of things to go a certain way, but my gut says that a lot of people around here would start collectively crapping bricks.

[Professor Chaos]

It says nothing about either league. It only says that South Dakota beat Colgate. Does Lafayette defeating W&M say anything about the conferences? No. Does Robert Morris defeating Lafayette say anything either? No. Was Colgate jet-lagged, maybe. Is Colgate a slow-starter (to the season)? Yes.

Transitive properties don't work well with teams, let alone conferences.


People NEVER understand this in any sport be it boxing, football, tennis....whatnot. Its why vegas wins money over and over again in sportsbetting because people see a team one week look real bad or real good and assume that's how they will play next. Then they don't because sports is all about matchups, styles and situations.
Like it or not, those are tangible scenarios that the selection committee will look at when determining seeding and at-large consideration. I agree that the transitive property shouldn't be used as the be all end all but it provides meaningful comparisons when it comes to decision time for the playoff selection comittee and will certainly be a piece of the puzzle.

[WileECoyote06]

The question of how many OVC teams get in the playoffs has a lot to do, in my opinion, with who gets the autobid. Tennessee State is the leader at this point and, at 7-0, looks pretty tough. But it is hard to get a gauge on them, as they've played what many would perceive to be a weak schedule so far. There's also 3 teams sitting at 3-1 in the conference (UT Martin, EKU, and EIU).

Personally, I think that if EKU wins out, they absolutely deserve a spot regardless of who wins the autobid. You could make a similar argument for UT Martin. The question I have is what about Tennessee State? Because there's a scenario here where they make it to the last game of the year and lose to Martin and you've got three teams sharing the title. I don't remember the tiebreaker for the autobid in that scenario but you'd have EKU at 9-2, UT Martin at 9-2, and TSU at 10-1.

Could this mean a possibility of 3 OVC teams getting in? Obviously, this requires a lot of things to go a certain way, but my gut says that a lot of people around here would start collectively crapping bricks.

In this scenario all three should all be invited to the playoffs.

Tenn. Martin - win over FBS, win over ranked team; loss to a ranked team; 6 wins in a row; 8 -1 vs FCS
Tenn. State - 10 - 1 vs FCS; win over ranked team; win over a conference champion (BCU/FAMU); ranked
EKU - 9 - 1 vs FCS; 5 game winning streak; ranked

The committee will figure out some justification to leave somebody out; most likely. . . but the right thing to do is to invite all three.

[ekufbfan]

In this scenario all three should all be invited to the playoffs.

Tenn. Martin - win over FBS, win over ranked team; loss over ranked team; 6 wins in a row; 8 -1 vs FCS
Tenn. State - 10 - 1 vs FCS; win over ranked team; win over a conference champion (BCU/FAMU); ranked
EKU - 9 - 1 vs FCS; 5 game winning streak; ranked

The committee will figure out some justification to leave somebody out; most likely. . . but the right thing to do is to invite all three.

One other issue rearding TSU. They play ONE LESS conference game than everyone else every year (this is so they can play their traditional black college rivalsxeyebrowx). This year they will not play conference foe EIU. If TSU loses one conference game, they also have one less conference win than other teams (except EIU were that the scenerio). Another really smart decision made years ago by the OVC. xchinscratchx We all knew that this could come up at some point, it has not been a playoff issue because TSU usually is not at the top of the conference. But here we are this year with what is going to be a point of contention should there be a tie for the conference championship and TSU is a part of that mix.

[Professor Chaos]

One other issue rearding TSU. They play ONE LESS conference game than everyone else every year (this is so they can play their traditional black college rivalsxeyebrowx). This year they will not play conference foe EIU. If TSU loses one conference game, they also have one less conference win than other teams (except EIU were that the scenerio). Another really smart decision made years ago by the OVC. xchinscratchx We all knew that this could come up at some point, it has not been a playoff issue because TSU usually is not at the top of the conference. But here we are this year with what is going to be a point of contention should there be a tie for the conference championship and TSU is a part of that mix.
So if TSU ends 6-1 in conference and EKU or UTM ends at 7-1 doesn't the 7-1 team get the autobid over the 6-1 team?

[Dane96]

In this scenario all three should all be invited to the playoffs.

Tenn. Martin - win over FBS, win over ranked team; loss over ranked team; 6 wins in a row; 8 -1 vs FCS
Tenn. State - 10 - 1 vs FCS; win over ranked team; win over a conference champion (BCU/FAMU); ranked
EKU - 9 - 1 vs FCS; 5 game winning streak; ranked

The committee will figure out some justification to leave somebody out; most likely. . . but the right thing to do is to invite all three.



Frankly, this scenario has more of an argument then the similar Southland scenario.

[ekufbfan]

So if TSU ends 6-1 in conference and EKU or UTM ends at 7-1 doesn't the 7-1 team get the autobid over the 6-1 team?
Honestly, I don't know. I suspect they (OVC office) would flip a coin....I am not kiddingxeyebrowx
Using your scenario:
EKU beat UTM
TSU beat EKU
For the sake of arugment: UTM beats TSU in the last game of the season, and all have one loss, WHO do you give the auto bid to? It should be one of the teams that played everyone, but that makes too much sense and most probably the OVC has allowed TSU to count a game from out of conference as a conference game (yeah, go figure that one!)
If only TSU and EKU end up with one loss, I think TSU gets the auto bid because they beat EKU, regardless of the fact they played one less game.

[Lehigh'98]

Does a 7-4 YSU team make the playoff's??

+ one of the toughest schedules
beat a 1BCS team
good following/fan base $$ for the NCAA
All div 1 schedule

- would have lost 4 of their last 7 games
alot of other teams at 8-3

I'm hoping this is not an issue 9-2 or 8-3 xthumbsupx

I hope so. I've always wanted a Lehigh - Youngstown matchup. Alma mater vs hometown. They need to go 8-3 though. That Pitt win will only carry them so far if they limp home this year.

[MTfan4life]

So if TSU ends 6-1 in conference and EKU or UTM ends at 7-1 doesn't the 7-1 team get the autobid over the 6-1 team?

No, because of the potential TSU situations, the conference has it set up that teams are tied when they have an equal amount of losses.

[ASUMountaineer]

OBSERVATION: judgment on or inference from what one has observed.

Fact: I have observed that you have 8,923 posts on this message board.
Opinion (and maybe fact): It is my observation and my opinion that anyone who posts 8,923 times on a message board has a LOT to say. (Important and/or fact? that is debatable! xeyebrowx)
Fact: I have observed that the OVC is generally referred to negatively by Albany fans.


Huh? About what? I am making no excuses about anything. To use your words: Back up your comment with "facts" xcoffeex

Come on man, the TWO Albany fans on here are good fellas. No need to bash them, especially over post counts. Some of us get very bored at work from time-to-time. xnodx xlolx

[ASUMountaineer]

Lies? Go back and read what was written by another Albany fan, there are no "lies" on here. This whole thing degenerated to this BECAUSE I had the gall to take offense with what I perceive to be negatvity toward the OVC by an Albany fan. I don't have the inclination or the time to look up which one of the two on this thread said what. And why DSU got involved is a head scratcher, but I only replied to his unnecessary comment. In my "opinion" this whole thing has deteriorated to pointlessness. Go ahead, both of you Albany fans and DSU can have the last word. xarguex

Really? You take offense at something on a message board. There isn't anything said on these boards that should offend you. In all seriousness, if you get offended by what anonymous posters say about the OVC, you're either taking things way too seriously or you are a bit too sensitive.

There's really no need to get all riled up, criticizing posters, and then trying to take your ball and go home. Take a chill pill, enjoy reading other threads/topics, and enjoy yourself. If you can't, then maybe you should take your ball and go home. xpeacex

[89rabbit]

The Colgate team of today is much improved since the trip to the badlands, some teams start fast and lose steam and some go in the other direction.

You are talking about a loss to the doormat of the MVFC. Looking at the rest of USD's schedule they have a really good shot at ending the season 1-10. You can talk about bad starts and any given Saturdays, and all that, but bottom line that was a very bad loss for your league come playoff time. Not the end of the world, but very bad.


P.S. The badlands are about a 5 hour drive west of Vermillion, SD.

[jmufan999]

Does a 7-4 YSU team make the playoff's??

+ one of the toughest schedules
beat a 1BCS team
good following/fan base $$ for the NCAA
All div 1 schedule

- would have lost 4 of their last 7 games
alot of other teams at 8-3

I'm hoping this is not an issue 9-2 or 8-3 xthumbsupx

I don't think 7-4 gets you in. Why? First, the Pitt win is looking less and less impressive. They're just not very good. They beat VT, but it turns out that even VT isn't that good.

More importantly, I think the committee does take recent history into account. I think they would severely penalize you for losing 4 of the last 7. It's weird: 8 wins and you're a lock. 7 wins, and I'd lean toward saying you're out. That's a pretty fine line.

[MTfan4life]

Does a 7-4 YSU team make the playoff's??

+ one of the toughest schedules
beat a 1BCS team
good following/fan base $$ for the NCAA
All div 1 schedule

- would have lost 4 of their last 7 games
alot of other teams at 8-3

I'm hoping this is not an issue 9-2 or 8-3 xthumbsupx

The committee will be looking for a field that is worthy of becoming the "best" team that season. Regardless of who you've played, if you have 4 FCS losses, you've proven that there are other FCS teams better than you. Sure it's not fair for teams in the "tough" conferences, but that's understood when the season starts. If you lose to NDSU, ISU-r, SDSU, and ISU-b, why should the committee give you another chance to beat those teams. Advancing to the playoffs doesn't necessarily define the top 20 teams. It's simply a means to get one champion. Some teams' 'playoffs' are in the regular season. I'd be very surprised if the committee let in a team with more than 3 FCS level losses.

[bjtheflamesfan]

The committee will be looking for a field that is worthy of becoming the "best" team that season. Regardless of who you've played, if you have 4 FCS losses, you've proven that there are other FCS teams better than you. Sure it's not fair for teams in the "tough" conferences, but that's understood when the season starts. If you lose to NDSU, ISU-r, SDSU, and ISU-b, why should the committee give you another chance to beat those teams. Advancing to the playoffs doesn't necessarily define the top 20 teams. It's simply a means to get one champion. Some teams' 'playoffs' are in the regular season. I'd be very surprised if the committee let in a team with more than 3 FCS level losses.

This^^

[Jazzman1522]

Honestly, I don't know. I suspect they (OVC office) would flip a coin....I am not kiddingxeyebrowx
Using your scenario:
EKU beat UTM
TSU beat EKU
For the sake of arugment: UTM beats TSU in the last game of the season, and all have one loss, WHO do you give the auto bid to? It should be one of the teams that played everyone, but that makes too much sense and most probably the OVC has allowed TSU to count a game from out of conference as a conference game (yeah, go figure that one!)
If only TSU and EKU end up with one loss, I think TSU gets the auto bid because they beat EKU, regardless of the fact they played one less game.

I know if there are two teams tied, the tiebreaker is head to head. So if it's TSU and EKU, they'll get the autobid. The problem if we get the three way tie that I propose is that those three teams would pretty much cancel each other out on head to head. If I remember right, I think the tiebreaker for basketball in a three way tie is to look at how each team fared against common opponents going down the standings. But I can't imagine a scenario where that would work in football since for this to happen they'd all only have one loss anyhow. To be honest, I don't anticipate this happening. At least one of these teams is likely to lose again somewhere down the line (Hopefully, not Eastern).

[ekufbfan]

Really? You take offense at something on a message board. There isn't anything said on these boards that should offend you. In all seriousness, if you get offended by what anonymous posters say about the OVC, you're either taking things way too seriously or you are a bit too sensitive.

There's really no need to get all riled up, criticizing posters, and then trying to take your ball and go home. Take a chill pill, enjoy reading other threads/topics, and enjoy yourself. If you can't, then maybe you should take your ball and go home. xpeacex

I have no argument with you ASU. My remarks regarding the amount of posts by the Albany guys was directly related to our exchanges and their opinions and their "facts" (whatever that was in their opinion). This is a prime example of a mountain being made from a molehill. IF you will go back and read all this, maybe you might interpret what I said a little differently. But, does not matter, all this message board stuff is a matter if one's OWN opinion anyway.

I do enjoy reading on here, and very seldom make a comment except when the OVC bashing gets old. I don't see my making a comment regarding OVC bashing any different from any of the HEATED exchanges I see on here everyday, but hey, JMO!xconfusedx

[ASUMountaineer]

I have no argument with you ASU. My remarks regarding the amount of posts by the Albany guys was directly related to our exchanges and their opinions and their "facts" (whatever that was in their opinion). This is a prime example of a mountain being made from a molehill. IF you will go back and read all this, maybe you might interpret what I said a little differently. But, does not matter, all this message board stuff is a matter if one's OWN opinion anyway.

I do enjoy reading on here, and very seldom make a comment except when the OVC bashing gets old. I don't see my making a comment regarding OVC bashing any different from any of the HEATED exchanges I see on here everyday, but hey, JMO!xconfusedx

But that's my point, why have an argument at all? Unfortunately, I did read all of those posts, so I did see you get "offended" (your word, not mine) and start criticizing posters because of post counts (really?). I was just offering up some advice to help prevent you from getting "offended" again.

FACT: This is an a message board with anonymous posters. Getting "offended" (again your word, not mine) by anything on this board--even OVC "bashing" by the two Albany fans here--is a waste of time and effort. Not trying to "offend" you, my man...simply trying to help you have an enjoyable experience at AGS.