Will schedules matter when the committee makes its seeding choices?

[WileECoyote06]

In Division II, SOS is a major component of the regional rankings. I'd imagine the FCS committee considers this strongly as well. Unless the rest of the Big South gets their act together Stony Brook may be back in the opening round; they currently have the weakest schedule in FCS based on past and future opponents.


http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2012/Internet/toughest%20schedule/fcs_9games_future.pdf

Discuss?

[BisonBacker]

It certainly should have a bearing on seeding!

[McNeese75]

I would think it will have some bearing but an undefeated SB team with a win over Army will probably get them a bye in the first round.

[Professor Chaos]

Yes, the same criteria used to select at-large teams (won/lost record and SOS) is used to seed teams.

[WileECoyote06]

I would think it will have some bearing but an undefeated SB team with a win over Army will probably get them a bye in the first round.

I think that would be the correct move, but I mean they are last of 121 schools. Even lower than many of their conference mates.

[danefan]

NCAA strength of schedule is a terrible measure.

It is based SOLELY on opponent W-L. The strength of those wins don't factor at all.

[GannonFan]

NCAA strength of schedule is a terrible measure.

It is based SOLELY on opponent W-L. The strength of those wins don't factor at all.

This. SOS will matter, but I'm sure most people on here would have huge issues with how SOS is determined. But in the end, they'll get it mostly right so don't worry. There won't be huge injustices with the seeding.

[BucBisonAtLarge]

With most schools wrapping up their non-conference schedules, the calcification of this kind of ranking should be anticipated. SBU has been pretty impressive and could achieve a seeding (1-5) if they execute the rest of their season. One or two slips and this SOS-Big South problem becomes a barrier to the playoffs-- screw seeding. Look to Duquesne and Georgetown last season or Liberty...

[BucBisonAtLarge]

Yikes, I just saw where Albany stands on this list... the Duquesne analogy is completely relevant here. An 8-3 Albany won't go to the playoffs if for some reason they lose the handle on the NEC bid with a pair of league losses- maybe even one. I have loved the Danes this year, listened to them take YSU to the brink, but a bad day with a Pittsburgh school could keep them out of the tournament.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Yes, SOS matters.

I think we'll see some 7-4 teams over 9-2 teams from weaker conferences. Seems to happen every year, and now that the BSC is the size of the CAA, you can expect more perhaps?

[WileECoyote06]

NCAA strength of schedule is a terrible measure.

It is based SOLELY on opponent W-L. The strength of those wins don't factor at all.

The Division II formula uses opponents W-Ls; combined with opponents opponents W-Ls. That would take care of the strength of wins argument. I'd imagine that the playoff committee may consider that as well; but there may not be much difference between that calculation and what is already calculated by Massey and Wolfe.

[theasushow]

It better, ASU didn't schedule a cupcake for the first time in forever. The fact that they played ECU, Coastal Carolina, and Montana as their 3 non conferences games (and went 2-1) should help them come selection Sunday. Assuming ofcourse they are still in playoff contention at that time.

[Seawolf97]

It has to matter as a part of the the selection process. We cant afford any losses in Big South play even with the Army win. If we dont win the Big South outright chances of an at large bid are slim.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

It has to matter as a part of the the selection process. We cant afford any losses in Big South play even with the Army win. If we dont win the Big South outright chances of an at large bid are slim.

SBU is a lock at 9-2. I can't see the Pace game really hurting them. The last couple spots will come down to 8-3/7-4 type teams.

The Big South and PL could be major bid thieves this year.

[heath]

Absolutely schedules matter as do attendance numbers. You need quality wins, a nice stadium and can pack the stands. Lehigh is a good example of this. Yes,they got a bye last year....but probably should have hosted the past 2 years.No lights,no fans and no home game.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Absolutely schedules matter as do attendance numbers. You need quality wins, a nice stadium and can pack the stands. Lehigh is a good example of this. Yes,they got a buy last year....but probably should have hosted the past 2 years.No lights,no fans and no home game.

Lehigh has hosted twice, '01 and '04. They draw well enough to support a playoff game. Lehigh hardly has "no fans". For its size, Lehigh still has a strong fan base and one of best traveling groups in the northeast.

The biggest problem is the lack of lights. Goodman is a great facility and would look great on ESPN but it'll never happen. I'm not sure they would be seeded unless they promised to bring in temp lighting.

From a phone

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I agree that Lehigh is a nice FCS location and has a good stadium. I enjoyed my time there in 2004. Decent crowd for a Turkey Day weekend.

[danefan]

Yikes, I just saw where Albany stands on this list... the Duquesne analogy is completely relevant here. An 8-3 Albany won't go to the playoffs if for some reason they lose the handle on the NEC bid with a pair of league losses- maybe even one. I have loved the Danes this year, listened to them take YSU to the brink, but a bad day with a Pittsburgh school could keep them out of the tournament.

If you can't win the NEC this year, you don't deserve to be in the playoffs, IMO.

[The Eagle's Cliff]

SOS should matter in cases like Northern Iowa. UNI can't get 7 DI wins, but they will be a better football team than 15-20 for sure. I'm glad Georgia Southern returned to the sensible strategy of scheduling lower-tier DI OOC schools to offset the FBS money game.

No offense to Jacksonville and Howard, but if GSU is playoff caliber those should be viewed as W's before kickoff.

[unigriff]

SOS should matter in cases like Northern Iowa. UNI can't get 7 DI wins, but they will be a better football team than 15-20 for sure. I'm glad Georgia Southern returned to the sensible strategy of scheduling lower-tier DI OOC schools to offset the FBS money game.

No offense to Jacksonville and Howard, but if GSU is playoff caliber those should be viewed as W's before kickoff.

this. Trying not to be bias...but a 6-4 UNI team is probably a better playoff contender than 1. 9-2/8-3 SB team, 2. any OVC team...what are they...like 0-20 now? IF UNI were to get in...it would be soley on SOS and they would have just won 6 straight games which also looks good to the comittee.

[gsu2583]

To quote one of my favorite movies:

"It will be significant..."

[bluehenbillk]

this. Trying not to be bias...but a 6-4 UNI team is probably a better playoff contender than 1. 9-2/8-3 SB team, 2. any OVC team...what are they...like 0-20 now? IF UNI were to get in...it would be soley on SOS and they would have just won 6 straight games which also looks good to the comittee.

No.

UNI has already been eliminated - they could win out every game moving forward 63-0 each & still they wouldn't get in. The committee has been clear on this - 7 Division 1 wins. Keep in mind 7 D-1 wins doesn't AUTOMATICALLY get you in - it just gets you considered. Actually IMHO I think there will be much fewer than normal, if any, 7-4 teams in the field this year.

[WileECoyote06]

No.

UNI has already been eliminated - they could win out every game moving forward 63-0 each & still they wouldn't get in. The committee has been clear on this - 7 Division 1 wins. Keep in mind 7 D-1 wins doesn't AUTOMATICALLY get you in - it just gets you considered. Actually IMHO I think there will be much fewer than normal, if any, 7-4 teams in the field this year.

I agree with this. Especially since a conference or two may have co-champions this year. The past two seasons have shown that the playoff committee will reward that conference (MEAC, OVC).

[AmsterBison]

The Division II formula uses opponents W-Ls; combined with opponents opponents W-Ls. That would take care of the strength of wins argument. I'd imagine that the playoff committee may consider that as well; but there may not be much difference between that calculation and what is already calculated by Massey and Wolfe.

Everything about the Division II system is crap. It sure doesn't figure strength of schedule.

[Daved]

this. Trying not to be bias...but a 6-4 UNI team is probably a better playoff contender than 1. 9-2/8-3 SB team, 2. any OVC team...what are they...like 0-20 now? IF UNI were to get in...it would be soley on SOS and they would have just won 6 straight games which also looks good to the comittee.I agree that it will look good to the committee and that UNI will be amongst the 10 best teams in the FCS by seasons end but I will be shocked if they receive a playoff berth.

[Hawk98]

SOS should matter in cases like Northern Iowa. UNI can't get 7 DI wins, but they will be a better football team than 15-20 for sure. I'm glad Georgia Southern returned to the sensible strategy of scheduling lower-tier DI OOC schools to offset the FBS money game.

No offense to Jacksonville and Howard, but if GSU is playoff caliber those should be viewed as W's before kickoff.

No. At some point you have to win, not just be a good team. 6-5 isn't good enough to be in the postseason.

[tingly]

They gave 6-win teams stronger consideration last season. A 6-5 team could be good enough, say, if they were 4th best in a tough conference, lost to 2 FBS teams, and beat an FCS playoff team or 2. Chances of that are pretty slim.

[frozennorth]

No. At some point you have to win, not just be a good team. 6-5 isn't good enough to be in the postseason.

how would this year's playoff bound lehigh do against uni's schedule? 6-5, at best? Yet you will still end up in the playoffs, while UNI will be at home.

the only teams i see getting hit by SOS are cal poly, who might go 10-1 and lose a top 2 seed to a 9-2 socon or caa team. sbu will likely get at best a #5 seed, amusing they go 10-1

[Hawk98]

how would this year's playoff bound lehigh do against uni's schedule? 6-5, at best? Yet you will still end up in the playoffs, while UNI will be at home.

the only teams i see getting hit by SOS are cal poly, who might go 10-1 and lose a top 2 seed to a 9-2 socon or caa team. sbu will likely get at best a #5 seed, amusing they go 10-1

So? Win games, get a reward. The playoffs are a reward for winning football games, not scheduling tough games. UNI knows this, and decided to take their chances at getting a very high seed if they ended up going 9-2 through their gauntlet. They are going to go 6-5, so they stay home.

Besides, a couple of years ago we all heard about how impossible it would be for Lehigh to go out to Iowa and win. Can someone remind me how that ended?

[frozennorth]

So? Win games, get a reward. The playoffs are a reward for winning football games, not scheduling tough games. UNI knows this, and decided to take their chances at getting a very high seed if they ended up going 9-2 through their gauntlet. They are going to go 6-5, so they stay home.

Besides, a couple of years ago we all heard about how impossible it would be for Lehigh to go out to Iowa and win. Can someone remind me how that ended?

apparently in you missing the point.

the point is that sos will be a minor factor. if it was, UNI would be in the playoffs, and lehigh would not.

[Hawk98]

Lehigh, or any team, at 11-0 or 10-1 is more deserving than anyone at 6-5. Football is about winning , not putting on a good show. I can see and SOS argument for ranking the 11-0 teams, even to put 10-1 teams ahead of 11-0, but once you get to 2+ losses more, the SOS breaks down to me. Win football games if you want to be in the playoffs.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

apparently in you missing the point.

the point is that sos will be a minor factor. if it was, UNI would be in the playoffs, and lehigh would not.

There's no doubt that UNI played a very difficult schedule but that's their fault. Scheduling 2 Big Ten games clearly shows what their priorities were for this year, dollar bills. Lehigh on the other hand fills out their schedule consisting only of FCS teams which is what you need to do to put yourself in a solid position for the playoffs.

BTW, I'm not one to give credit to FCS teams for scheduling "money" games. I think Montana showed more guts by playing at SD and App State than UNI did by playing Wisky and Iowa.

[WrenFGun]

SBU is a lock at 9-2. I can't see the Pace game really hurting them. The last couple spots will come down to 8-3/7-4 type teams.

The Big South and PL could be major bid thieves this year.

False. 100% False. If they lose 2 games with that schedule they are out. 100%.

[WrenFGun]

Lehigh, or any team, at 11-0 or 10-1 is more deserving than anyone at 6-5. Football is about winning , not putting on a good show. I can see and SOS argument for ranking the 11-0 teams, even to put 10-1 teams ahead of 11-0, but once you get to 2+ losses more, the SOS breaks down to me. Win football games if you want to be in the playoffs.

You're simply wrong, IMO. The only thing that matters is who you beat. Lehigh with 11 wins over cupcakes is less impressive than a 6-5 team with a win over elite team. Teams that are afraid to play someone SHOULD be penalized. If you're in a weak conference (cough, Lehigh) you should either win your conference or actually play someone in your non-conference, like Albany does year-in and year-out.

[Hawk98]

You're simply wrong, IMO. The only thing that matters is who you beat. Lehigh with 11 wins over cupcakes is less impressive than a 6-5 team with a win over elite team. Teams that are afraid to play someone SHOULD be penalized. If you're in a weak conference (cough, Lehigh) you should either win your conference or actually play someone in your non-conference, like Albany does year-in and year-out.

I love the "Lehigh is not a good team" mantra, when in the last two years they went on the road and knocked the CAA champion and MVFC champion out of the playoffs. Good teams win football games. 6-5 is not a playoff record.

[Hawk98]

And why did this become about Lehigh all of a sudden anyway. We were talking about 6-5 teams and whether they can have a hard enough schedule to be worthy of playoff consideration. My personal opinion is no, that football is about winning games, and if you are going to take the high risk, high reward approach of scheduling multiple FBS games, then you have to accept the risk as well as the potential rewards if you win one of them.

[JSUBison]

You people are talking like UNI getting to 6 wins is a certainty. I'm not so sure they can do it, they have some solid teams with playoff hopes still on their schedule.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

R
You're simply wrong, IMO. The only thing that matters is who you beat. Lehigh with 11 wins over cupcakes is less impressive than a 6-5 team with a win over elite team. Teams that are afraid to play someone SHOULD be penalized. If you're in a weak conference (cough, Lehigh) you should either win your conference or actually play someone in your non-conference, like Albany does year-in and year-out.

Few things
- Lehigh is not playing complete cupcakes. By the end of the year Lehigh will have 4 or 5 solid wins assuming they take care of business, 10-1 and a win over laffy.
- The PL is not a "weak" conference. Average, decent, respectable yes...weak no
- Lehigh's schedule this year is not the standard. Lehigh finished a home and home with all mighty UNH and a long series with Villanova.

From a phone

[Hawk98]

You people are talking like UNI getting to 6 wins is a certainty. I'm not so sure they can do it, they have some solid teams with playoff hopes still on their schedule.

Well, I'm assuming no one will argue that a 5-6 UNI team is worthy of the playoffs.

[WrenFGun]

R

Few things
- Lehigh is not playing complete cupcakes. By the end of the year Lehigh will have 4 or 5 solid wins assuming they take care of business, 10-1 and a win over laffy.
- The PL is not a "weak" conference. Average, decent, respectable yes...weak no
- Lehigh's schedule this year is not the standard. Lehigh finished a home and home with all mighty UNH and a long series with Villanova.

From a phone

Indulge me. Which quality teams does Lehigh face? Lehigh, IMO, has a talented team. I've seen it first hand. Spadola is a beast and so was Lum. There were a stable of useful RB's.

Here's who Lehigh has beaten to date: Monmouth (3-2, wins over URI [terrible], Wagner [terrible], Sacred Heart [terrible]), CCSU (0-5, including losses to Wagner and Sacred Heart), Princeton (1-2, don't play anyone of significance beyond ivies and PL), Liberty (0-4), Fordham (2-2, no wins of significance). Again, this isn't really about Lehigh, but if Northern Iowa goes 6-5, for instance, with wins over SDSU, Illinois State, etc ... how can you possibly say Lehigh has a better resume? Do 11 wins that Northern Iowa would have smashed really carry that much value? I could do this with almost any team, too (pick who you want). Teams that don't play anyone OOC should have to win their conference to make the playoffs short of a scarcity of teams.

You don't have to "play who is on your schedule." Make a schedule that gives yourself a chance for an at-large.

[Hawk98]

Indulge me. Which quality teams does Lehigh face? Lehigh, IMO, has a talented team. I've seen it first hand. Spadola is a beast and so was Lum. There were a stable of useful RB's.

Here's who Lehigh has beaten to date: Monmouth (3-2, wins over URI [terrible], Wagner [terrible], Sacred Heart [terrible]), CCSU (0-5, including losses to Wagner and Sacred Heart), Princeton (1-2, don't play anyone of significance beyond ivies and PL), Liberty (0-4), Fordham (2-2, no wins of significance). Again, this isn't really about Lehigh, but if Northern Iowa goes 6-5, for instance, with wins over SDSU, Illinois State, etc ... how can you possibly say Lehigh has a better resume? Do 11 wins that Northern Iowa would have smashed really carry that much value? I could do this with almost any team, too (pick who you want). Teams that don't play anyone OOC should have to win their conference to make the playoffs short of a scarcity of teams.

You don't have to "play who is on your schedule." Make a schedule that gives yourself a chance for an at-large.

When Lehigh scheduled Liberty, it was kind of expected they'll be top 25 caliber. Colgate and Lafayette will likely both be top 35 or so. Their traditional 2 Ivy games were undeniably soft this year, but it's not like they never play Penn or Harvard from the Ivies.

And yes, winning carries value. And I'm not at all convinced that UNI goes undefeated in the Patriot League, honestly.

[Hawk98]

I mean, if we want crazy subjective judgements ruling the day, we can all watch FBS. The reason I like FCS is that every eligible conference has a shot to qualify their champion, and the at large are mostly based on winning. I get a 9-2 or 9-3 team from a power conference getting in over a 10-1 team from a soft conference with no OOC. But when you get down to 6-5 vs. 10-1, it's just too much of a lack of success for SOS to overcome.